Originally Posted by BeckysTXA
I read an article interviewing the UConn Women’s B-ball coach who is not a fan of the brave new transfer world and the portal. He estimates a third of those who enter the portal will not be picked up and will not have their college education paid for after that. If that is how it plays out, I think it will take 3-5 years, but maybe some of these kids will stop and think twice about looking for greener grass.
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I wonder if there's an options strategy here, meaning the stock market version of the idea. When you are coming out of high school you have significant "time value". Volatility increases value, as a coach you can get a guy who MIGHT be a first round NBA pick (Obi). That option contract has value.
After a year, or 3 years, your volatility becomes small. We saw you play against DI competition, we know how good you are. You're not that good. That option contract has much lower value.
Maybe coaches would prefer, at the margin, to pick up a guy who is 6'3" with a dad who is 6'9", and hope for the best instead of picking up a guy who was only about the 4th best player at his A10 school. Sure you take an average team and win an extra game or 2 with that guy, but, that won't bring you glory. Only finding an Obi will bring you glory, and frankly, Chatman isn't that guy most likely. So they take the high school kid.