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[BeckysTXA]

Ok I looked at all of our OOC opponents and what they have left and who they have left to play. 7 teams have no conference tournaments so I didn’t have to guess on unidentified matches. The remaining 7 I got lucky in that there are no middle of the conference teams. So easier to guess they were or were not even getting into the conference tourney and their probability to win any match by round. Of the matches left, identified or not, I tended to lean toward they lose a match than hoping they can win a match. In other words, worst-case.

Good news is there are only 3 teams in our OOC schedule that I’m sure will end with losing records. It would have been 4 if we played X. (So AL, Marshall, Evansville). I personally think tOSU will also finish in this category at 15-17. But they might surprise me and go 16-16. The next lowest winning percent is Washington. I think they finish 18-11. Everyone else has great winning percentages - all over .650. I have Pitt going 28-2 (.933) losing to Duke a second time as their only two losses. I honesty don’t think that’s going to happen, but wanted to be conservative to look at our worst case.

I also have UD going 3-1 the rest of the way losing to VCU in the conference final. I actually think we have a great chance to beat VCU, but this is a discussion of what has to happen to get an at large bid and we don’t need one if we win that match.

I also only went to our 14 OOC teams. I did not look at the opponents of our 28 teams and those winning percentages are 25% of the calculation. But that’s 100+ more matches and way too much guessing, so I’m assuming that all averages out to where we are today on that part of the calculation.

Our rpi percentage currently sits at .6072. If we go 3-1 and my conservative guesses for the OOC teams is correct, we increase our rpi percentage to .6232. That would rank 28th currently. That also assumes no teams above us or below us improves their rpi percentage, which isn’t going to happen.

But here is the bottom line, we have to win 3 matches, and our great OOC schedule will help us. The highest I think we can finish is 28. I think we have to finish no lower than 33-34. That gives us a fudge of 6-7 spots.

We beat Duquesne, LaSalle and probably LaSalle again, I think we are in. I’ll re-evaluate again after next weekend.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.