The other thing that factors in is the matchups with each team. You could have a great team that struggles against big post players in a physical game. If you draw one of those teams you could be out in the first round. If you don't draw a team with a big physical post guy you might go all the way. Every team has a weakness and the luck of the draw can impact your chances.
John Wooden said that the expansion to 64 teams makes it more difficult because it is harder to play really well for six straight games. That is why great defense, free throws and turnovers are important. Even when you aren't playing your best on offense those items give you a chance to win.
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