One day, I will get this posted on figstats.net in a more laid out blog post with the historical data to back it up.
As I mentioned in the Ohio State game thread, UD moved up to 14th with the win. The question is how will that 14 ranking end the season and what it means for NCAA hopes.
In the past few years, almost all teams that have an RPI of 40 or better have made it in. There are a few non-Big 5 edge cases that didn't make it.
With that said, which RPI matters? Well, of course, it is the RPI that is used in the selection committee room, which would be the Monday before the last weekend. And of course, RPI changes alot during the year. But, that's really if your conference schedule is drastically different than your non-conference record. For instance, winning a lot in non-conference, and then losing alot in conference, or vice versa.
Where am I going with this? On the 4th Monday of the year, if a school is in the top 10 in RPI, they have made that selection RPI top 40 the past 3 years. Well, UD is 15 now, so let's look at top 25. If a team is in the Top 25 after the 4th weekend's RPI, they are in the top 40 by selection RPI at a high rate 21/25 in 2015 and 24/25 in 16 and 17. All 25 are in the RPI top 50 in the past 3 years.
So, what does this all mean? It's my prediction that as long as Dayton doesn't self-destruct in conference play, and they happen to not get the tournament title, they will get an NCAA bid. Of course, it's all in the hands of the selection committee.
Figgie
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