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  #1  
Old 10-28-2015, 09:18 AM
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Brackets! 2015 ed.

Originally Posted by KYFlyer View Post
SLU will most likely not make the A10 tourney although I hope they can get a positive result Thursday and give us a chance for the 2nd seed.

I was talking about this with my friend last night. We are already counting #10 SLU out, though not gone mathematically, there is just no way anyone should expect they will go on the road to take out both GW and VCU on their respective senior days! It is the worst possible schedule for a team that finds themselves this short of clinching @ 2-5-1. Therefore, there are nine teams positioning for 8 spots in the bracket.

UMass (11 pts) is on the outside looking in, but they could still finish with as many as 17 pts. A split gets them to 14 pts, with a tiebreaker over La Salle in hand (if necessary). UMass does have as tough a remaining schedule as anyone outside of St Louis, with a road game on SJU's turf, then a home game against our Flyers on Senior Day. But their advantage is that the other bubble teams (La Salle, Mason, and Duquesne) have to play each other, making it impossible for all three teams to win out.

La Salle also controls their own destiny with a win in either of two remaining matches being enough for them to advance. At 13 pts, they can reach a safe (15 to 19 points) range, with a few favorable results.

Duquesne collected tie breakers with hed to head results over both UMass and Mason, if it should come down to it. But based on remaining schedule, I find a rather likely scenario being Duquesne will be at 4-6 (with Mason going 5-5). Therefore UMass getting their 13th point (or more) would cause Duquesne to be out. Otherwise, UMass will miss the bubble if they can't produce against the Hawks and Flyers.

Last edited by soccerflyer; 10-28-2015 at 10:22 PM..
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Old 10-28-2015, 05:01 PM
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Who presents the most difficult matchups for UD in the A10 tournament? I think that they have the ability to win the tournament if they play well. Am I too optimistic?
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Old 10-28-2015, 06:13 PM
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The most difficult matchup for Dayton will remain Dayton. If we get out of our own way and defend the box without soft clearances down Broadway, get our forwards to back-track, and avoid bad angles, we'll be fine.

We are probably the team nobody wants to play just because of the Canadians. But we gotta keep the score down or we're probably toast. LaSalle has a great D, VCU gives us problems with our finesse style b/c of their size and physicality, and GW -- well -- GW is unbeaten in the league so you have to account for them.

So no, you are not too optimistic. But at the end of the day you are what your record says you are and we're still a sub.-500 team at the moment. You aren't sub.-500 unless you have some major shortcomings. The A10 is much weaker this season however -- if there is a year where RPI #146 could win it, this is it.
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Old 10-28-2015, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
The most difficult matchup for Dayton will remain Dayton. If we get out of our own way and defend the box without soft clearances down Broadway, get our forwards to back-track, and avoid bad angles, we'll be fine.

We are probably the team nobody wants to play just because of the Canadians. But we gotta keep the score down or we're probably toast. LaSalle has a great D, VCU gives us problems with our finesse style b/c of their size and physicality, and GW -- well -- GW is unbeaten in the league so you have to account for them.

So no, you are not too optimistic. But at the end of the day you are what your record says you are and we're still a sub.-500 team at the moment. You aren't sub.-500 unless you have some major shortcomings. The A10 is much weaker this season however -- if there is a year where RPI #146 could win it, this is it.
We have a Canadian on defense who has played well all year as a freshman, Pestell. I am optimistic about our chances and hope to play LaSalle again with a better result.
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Old 10-28-2015, 07:56 PM
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Men are up 3-0 at the half....
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Old 10-28-2015, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Who presents the most difficult matchups for UD in the A10 tournament? I think that they have the ability to win the tournament if they play well. Am I too optimistic?
You are not too optimistic. The Flyers are the preseason coaches poll favorite, as well as defending champs, and we have lately been returning to that form. However, the tourney is wide open for the taking this year.

1. VCU is the biggest threat to take out Dayton because of physicality that comes on both sides of the ball. They not only beat Dayton, they dismantled La Salle on the road. I think this could be the Rams year to return to play in the A10 championship finals, after succumbing to Dayton in the preceding rounds during both 2013 and 2014. A 2/3 semifinal between Dayton and VCU could be one of those matchups that you wish could be determining the championship.

2. La Salle's record against Dayton over the past five seasons is 4-1-1, and even in the "tie" they advanced on PK's. That's a dominant program and they will always be a tough match-up for the Flyers. They win matches because they are aggressive on defense. Paul Royal is a goalkeeping coach by trade and some of the best goaltenders in the A10 have come through the program. Katie Getzinger, their first string goalie, has the distinction of besting Dayton twice (5-4 PK's in the 2013 championship, and 2-1 in the 2015 regular season).

3. UMass is my sleeper pick and have the ability to pull off some upsets because they are well coached, have made some noise in recent A10 tourneys, and have a goalie that tallied 6 shutouts and a GAA of 0.81. The minutewomen have been much more competitive, I believe, than their current 9th place record would indicate. They have a lot to prove and are due. I wouldn't want to be their first round draw. After GW beat them 1-0 in DC, a grudge rematch could be a toss-up and fascinating to watch. The only wrinkle in UMass is that they are winless on the road so far.

4. I am less phased by GW as a match-up for Dayton, even though their record is very impressive. Unlike most of the above programs, GW won't be able to scout Dayton by playing us during the regular season. They currently have an unblemished record, but a lot of weight of an undefeated season is on their shoulders and this takes its toll. If they come in to the finals against Dayton they could be riding high at 12-0 in the A10. Yet, I expect Dayton's place in the 2 or 3 spot will prevent us from seeing GW "too soon" and when it comes down to a final at the end, on a neutral site, it would be a scenario which I think gives Dayton better odds than GW, because we've actually been there before and GW hasn't.

5. Saint Joseph's - this team has started to prove it can win. Gingrich makes them the most dangerous team you'd otherwise never think could knock you out. If we played them three times, we'd all but surely win two, but it's that "what if" moment that SJU could capitalize on.
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  #7  
Old 10-30-2015, 01:53 AM
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Six teams are in so far (GW, Dayton, VCU, Fordham, Saint Joseph's and La Salle), with the final two invites pending the Sunday results for two of the following three teams:
Duquesne (12), Mason (12) and Massachusetts (11).


GW has clinched the top seed.

The remaining seven seeds will be determined by Sunday results. Dayton and VCU will finish as high as 2 to as low as 5, with VCU holding the H2H tiebreaker only in case they both finish at 7-3 or 6-1-3. SJU and Fordham could finish anywhere from 3 to 6, with Fordham owning the H2H tiebreaker between those two squads. La Salle is a 4 to 6 seed finisher, dependent on their final result. George Mason and Duquesne are able to fall between 7 through 9 which puts them both on the bubble, and UMass could finish anywhere from 7th all the way down to 11th.

Duquesne holds tiebreakers over both Mason and Massachusetts should they need them.
UMass is in a must win situation against Dayton, and can't even get in with a tie.
The Minutewomen were mostly competitive this season (beating Harvard and La Salle, plus getting a road point against VCU which may be their only road result but a decent one nonetheless). But they have also succumbed to a tie with inferior Richmond, and those aforementioned road losses that mounted up too quickly.

Bonaventure's two key results were losses against both Duquesne and George Mason, so they cannot advance to the A10 tournament regardless of what occurs Sunday. The Bonaventure defense was a sieve and it cost them too many critical results in conference match-ups, causing them to be eliminated early.
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Old 10-30-2015, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by KYFlyer View Post
Win and the second seed is ours. Not sure it helps us as we don't know who ends up 6th and 7th.
Despite some uncertainty of opponent, I can say it should help Dayton to lock up a 2 seed, even not knowing the final seeding, unless UMass pulls off the necessary string of events to get the 7 seed. Looking at all possibilities, there are just three teams that can qualify or the 7 seed (Duquesne, Mason, UMass). UMass is most formidable, but they still need a lot of help to get to the 7 seed from their current placement. Duquesne, the most likely 7 seed, followed by George Mason, would be an easier first round match-up for the Flyers.

At the 6 seed, you'll either see St Joe's, La Salle or Fordham, teams that are generally better skilled than the 7 seed candidates. These three teams will finish with as many as 6 wins in conference, whereas the 7 seed team could have just either 4 or 5 wins.

Also, history tells us that most A10 finals are between the 1 and the 2 seed, and that any upstarts that make it to the finals as a 3 through 8 seed don't usually take it all but have the consolation of making it that far. This trend may be less important now that the critical first round bye has gone and leveled the playing field. Also, this is definitely anybody's year and seeding seems to be irrelevant now that we have a true neutral site in Davidson, a non-participant. I hate what neutral site does for the fan attendance and press coverage, but I like from the gamesmanship perspective that there will be no automatic favorites due to travel.
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Old 10-30-2015, 06:31 PM
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Duquesne, George Mason, UMass... two of you will be the winners of this challenge, and one of you will be out. Duquesne... George Mason... UMass...

UMass, you may leave the runway. (That's my Heidi Klumesque prediction.)

There's not a chance in heck Flyers give up another early goal to the minutewomen, right? Coach Tucker ought to use this game as an example. He should make some defensive line-up changes, and try to get something working. Go back to the basics. On the offense side of things, Dayton has come alive. Just need to retool the defense in time for the postseason. Heck, it worked for us in late 2014, when Betancourt relieved James and all of a sudden, a new fire was lit.
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Old 11-01-2015, 03:47 PM
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#1 GW vs #8 George Mason
#2 DAYTON FLYERS vs #7 Duquesne
#3 Saint Joseph's vs #6 La Salle
#4 VCU vs #5 Fordham
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Old 11-01-2015, 04:40 PM
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No Weigel or Pestell today. Hope they are available for the tournament. Need all hands on deck.
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Old 11-01-2015, 10:57 PM
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I keep hearing the A10 is having a down year, and perhaps that is the case. But what a thrilling tourney it will be, with a wide open field and a truly neutral site for the first time since 2012!

Dayton is my running favorite at 40%, closely followed by: VCU (25%), GW(20%), La Salle (10%), and Saint Joseph's (4%).
I do not think Duquesne, George Mason, or Fordham will advance past the first round so I give them < 1% odds of winning it all.
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Old 11-02-2015, 03:07 PM
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Smile

The number of goals we have surrendered against the opponents that qualified for the A10 tourney:

#1 GW - DNP
#3 SJU - DNP
#4 VCU - 3
#5 Fordham - 1
#6 LaSalle - 2 (also missed a PK)
#7 Duquesne - 2
#8 Mason - 2

Our GAA against the field is 2.00, and this does not include not playing the two best teams in the tournament other than ourselves. This tourney field GAA is actually worse than our overall GAA. This means our chances of winning are only better than average if we can score at least three goals per game for three games in a row over a long weekend. And most telling, we don't have a single shutout against the field.

There wasn't a single game this year in which UD scored that Campbell or Waters failed to scratch the boxscore as well. You let these two players run free at your own peril. You eliminate them however, and you probably eliminate UD from the tournament. They were directly accountable for 32 of UD's 43 goals (74%) this year.

We defend, we got a chance.
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Old 11-03-2015, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post

There wasn't a single game this year in which UD scored that Campbell or Waters failed to scratch the boxscore as well. You let these two players run free at your own peril. You eliminate them however, and you probably eliminate UD from the tournament. They were directly accountable for 32 of UD's 43 goals (74%) this year.

We defend, we got a chance.


If you think having six rostered players with three or more goals is not a balanced attack, then what would you say about the prospects of GW with only three in that category? SJU has four, Fordham's got two goal scorers, La Salle's got four, Duquesne's got four, and Mason's got three. That we came up with eleven additional goals WITHOUT the two frontrunners even touching the ball is a feature that other teams in this year's field only wish to have! I do consider Dayton to be the absolute favorite going into this weekend.

But enough about how good Dayton is on paper. I'm thinking Dayton's two road losses by a goal apiece would absolutely have been reversed on a neutral site. The second time around is not going to be as difficult to figure out these tougher defenses. And look at our match-ups... Dayton avoiding both GW and VCU until the finals is the best possible scenario!

I'm not going to get upset about not being 10-0 this year for a split title with GW. The tourney is ultimately the cup that matters, not as much who hoists the regular season banner.

Dayton rolled over Duquesne last time out, however Duquesne is no cupcake. Who have they beaten? Ivy League Champions Princeton (AT PRINCETON) most notably. In the A10: George Mason, UMass, and La Salle are their most notable wins. The key to these first round games is to run the tempo and build a comfortable lead, and try to go deep on the roster to keep some fresh legs for Sunday. In a four day tourney, putting the best XI out there is important, but the bench has a crucial role to play as well.
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Old 11-05-2015, 01:38 PM
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George Mason 1 0 over George Washington. Physical game.
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Old 11-05-2015, 02:51 PM
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What an upset! It sure seemed as though seeding wouldn't matter this year, and now #5 Fordham has also taken a 1-0 halftime lead over #4 VCU. If this result should stand, Dayton would be an even heavier favorite in the remaining field. GW's too early exit shows how topsy turvy the A10 is right now. But I am not too surprised, since GW's - despite their dominance - not scoring a lot of goals this season.

I believe this is the first time an 8 seed has managed to advance in the A10 tourney, and just the second time that the #1 seed has lost their first game of the tourney
(reminds me of the 2011 Explorers losing 1-0 in a semifinal to low seed UMass).
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Old 11-05-2015, 04:11 PM
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Not really surprised by GDub loss. Thought their 10-0 conference record was pretty soft. They won a lot of close conference matches - 3 in double OT and 1 in OT. Defended well, but never scored over 2 goals. Didn't play us or Duquesne.

Anybody know why Horn didn't start but came on at the half? Not that it made a difference - as GMU scored the game's only goal late in the second half.

Time for our ladies to seize the moment.

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Old 11-05-2015, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Anybody know why Horn didn't start but came on at the half? Not that it made a difference - as GMU scored the game's only goal late in the second
She has been on concussion protocol since a George Mason forward collided with her. They were trying to ease her back in.
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:09 PM
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1-1 second half just started
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