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2016 UD Women's Soccer Preview
2016 UD Women's Soccer Preview
Christopher Rieman
Published by Chris R
08-15-2016
Smile 2016 UD Women's Soccer Preview

It’s been nine months since the Dayton Flyers women’s soccer team lost a heartbreaking PK shootout to Duquesne in the A10 Tournament Quarterfinals, a sudden finality to a season that started in disarray but closed with five straight wins before the shocking defeat to the Dukes -- the earliest league tourney exit in Head Coach Mike Tucker’s 21 years as Flyer skipper. UD finished the year 10-9-1 (8-2), sub-par for program standards but in some ways remarkable considering the nightmarish 0-4-1 start.

The loss to the Dukes in the A10 Tourney, in some ways, encapsulated the 2015 season as a whole – a potent offense forced to outscore opponents and cover up repetitive defensive miscues. UD did well to limit scoring chances on most nights, but were undone by self-inflicted gaffs in the defensive third that resulted in soft goals reaching the net. All told, the Flyers allowed 33 goals in 20 matches (1.65 GAA), nearly double the rate of many Flyer teams of the past. Conversely, Dayton scored 44 goals (2.20 GPG) as one of the more potent offenses in the country. But it wasn’t enough when games were tight and opposing teams chose to bunker. Sooner or later good teams must find a way to pitch shutouts and UD managed just two clean sheets all year. That’s almost hard to do.

PERSONNEL LOSSES

It’s hard to believe the dynamic Canadian duo of F Ashley Campbell (17g, 9a) and MF Nicole Waters (6g, 17a) have exhausted their eligibility and moved on with life. Campbell left campus as the program’s all-time leading scorer while Waters departs as the all-time leading assist queen. Nobody else in the A10 had a pair of players capable of doing the things they could do on a nightly basis. For better or worse, they carried the Flyers as most goals were scored by or assisted by one or both players. Campbell’s ability to stretch the field with her gazelle-like strides caused fits for opposing teams trying to defend long balls, while Waters’ vision and weighted passes were surgically superior to anyone else in the conference. Not only were they annual A10 1st Team players, they were among the nation’s leaders in scoring and assists for much of their careers. Both were singled out as the best Offensive Player and Midfielder by the A10.

Seniors Lesley Chilton, Megan Herr, Alyson Smigel, and Heather Betancourt also graduated. Chilton was an off-and-on starter over the last two seasons and helped out as an outside MF or defender, while Herr was strictly a back line player with 18 appearances in 2015. Smigel came off the bench for limited duty while Betancourt – the 2014 season savior in many ways – did not play last year as a redshirt senior.

OFFENSE

With so much firepower lost on offense, who is ready to step in and carry the load?

Senior Erin O’Malley (0g, 1a) might not be everyone’s first choice, but she’s the likeliest option despite her stats. Her impact may depend on how the Flyer coaching staff elects to utilize her in 2016. A central MF in her first two seasons, she began 2015 as a central defender but never looked comfortable as a back line player forced to do work where the mentality is uniquely defined. Later in the season she moved back into the midfield – her natural position – but all the jockeying around seemed to shake her confidence and it affected O’Malley’s play. The 2014 A10 Tourney MVP struggled with her touches, pace of play, and lost some of her prototypical physicality and cerebral calming effect on the pitch. In a year when everyone was banged up, O’Malley was no exception. For a player of her size, physicality, and tool kit, it was a subpar season and one she’s more than capable of atoning for. She’s capable of being the best ball-possession central midfielder in the A10. She’s capable of being a difference-maker every night. She’s capable of so much, as long as she has the confidence in herself to be a dictator of play and less a reactionary force.

As good as O’Malley can – and should be – she’s still not a goal-scorer by nature. Much of that will still fall to juniors Alexis Kiehl (8g, 5a), Sidney LeRoy (3g, 1a), Libby Leedom (3g, 2a), and senior Meghan Blank (3g, 3a).

Kiehl, a 1st Team All-A10 member, stalks defenders as an outside winger and has good speed and closing ability to track down long balls and pressure the goal mouth. Her ability to take players off the dribble 1 vs 1 must continue to develop and become a weapon for Dayton. She’s not a big target up top however; larger, physical defenders have marked her out of the game. Kiehl must get stronger or use her quickness to counter opposing players attempting to push her off the ball. To her credit she’s made progress every year, but the Canadian book-ends are no longer around to take the pressure and attention away – or help set the table. She’ll be a clear defensive focus from now on and must elevate her game to elevate Dayton’s.

LeRoy – granddaughter of Head Coach Mike Tucker – is a crafty poacher near the box that likes to dribble-drive across the goal mouth and attack the net. At times she’s UD’s best pressure-oriented attacking player – willing to challenge balls in the defensive third and force opposing players and goalkeepers to play quicker and cleaner than preferred. Like Kiehl however, she’s not a big target and that limits her effectiveness at times.

Leedom, a central attacking MF, finally got healthy last year -- at least as healthy as she’s been since arriving at UD three seasons ago. She brings a lot of the same skills as O’Malley. One of UD’s more physically-imposing players, the 2nd Team All-A10 selection is at her best when competing for loose-ball challenges and setting up teammates in the offensive half of the field. She’s almost too unselfish near the goal box though, and should probably call her own number more often when the opportunity is there – she has a heavy boot and can strike from distance. Her challenge in 2016 is improving game-to-game consistency and eliminating random giveaways that have oftentimes put the Flyers in a defensive pickle.

If Leedom and O’Malley complement one another in the midfield, Meghan Blank compliments Kiehl up top. Both are undersized but quick, not especially physical but crafty, not supernatural goal scorers but timely and capable of redirecting a tough ball on frame. Blank’s long runs up and down the touch lines force opposing defenders to suck oxygen, but the next step for Blank is making the grunt work count – routinely turning the corner and threading balls to the six-yard box rather than simply winning a throw-in near the corner flag. If she terminates more of her runs like Juliana Libertin once did, her teammates should find the back of the net more often.

Those looking for a target forward should put their casino chips on 5-8 sophomore Beth Kamphaus (2g, 3a), an A10 All-Rookie selection last year that slowly got better as the season progressed. Kamphaus gives Dayton a presence with high balls in the box and also a player capable of placing dangerous crosses in the mixer – usually from the right side. Her freshman season was probably better than stats credit her for. Late in the year she was playing her best soccer.

Other potential help may come from Keagin Collie, Kaitlynn Kiehl, Quincy Kellett, and Sara Robertson. All were used sparingly in 2015, but Kiehl is the most experienced and played starter minutes early in her career.

DEFENSE

Dayton returns an experienced back line but the personnel must play tighter, cleaner, and more consistent or this year’s defense will be another exercise in frustration.

And that’s part of the frustration itself – so many of the Flyer defenders are capable of more. They know it. The coaches know it. The players know the coaches know it. One easy way to get better in 2016 is to get healthy --- something the Flyers couldn’t effectively say last season. The roster has been a veritable MASH unit in the back line and defensive midfield over the last two seasons and if UD can finally catch a break, perhaps UD will finally break the cycle of suspect defending too.

Senior-to-be Kathleen Golterman, a starter last season, is no longer with the team and must be replaced alongside the graduation of Beth Herr.

Much of the responsibility will fall on 6-0 D Abby Wiegel, a central player with imposing size to win high balls out of the back and clean up dangerous chances inside the box. Few teams can match her size, but Weigel must play as a legitimate 6-footer and leverage her size as an imposing weapon. The Flyers can’t afford to have such a big player play six inches shorter than the tape measure.

Alongside Weigel, senior Sarah Byrne returns after redshirting 2015 due to injury. A full-time starter in 2014, Byrne’s re-appearance – provided she’s healthy -- is a welcome addition to help bolster the back line.

Fellow defender Nicolette Griesinger has spent the better part of the last two seasons rehabbing from multiple injuries, negating both her effectiveness and playing time. If she’s healthy – truly healthy and not simply sucking it up as she’s been asked to do – her presence gives Dayton a fighting chance for a major course correction on defense.

Sophomore Nadia Pestell, standing just 5-2, had the most challenging assignment of any true freshmen in 2015 – starting on defense as an outside fullback. She was effective despite the pressure, playing larger than her frame and more or less doing what was asked. Pestell didn’t overthink things, rarely taking risks but also rarely venturing forward as an attacking player out of the back line. She was consistent, persistent, and has some Leah Phelps DNA in her. Fellow sophomore Dani Ruffalo can moonlight as either a defender or midfielder and provides additional depth in the defensive half as well.

Back at goalkeeper in 2016 is Kaelyn Johns, the full-time starter last year as a true freshman. By most metrics she performed well for any first-year player between the posts. For a position that’s had a Band-Aid fix over the last 3-4 seasons, perhaps Johns is now the permanent long-term solution the Flyers have been wishing for. She has good size and added some much-needed foot strength to help flip the field. And in her defense, field players put Johns in bad spots that affected her 1.65 GAA. She must continue to refine her skills, get more comfortable challenging high balls in the box, and more capable distributing out of the back. Senior GK Jenna DiTusa is the likely backup.

NEWCOMERS

The reinforcements are a collection of local and out-of-state products hoping to make a difference sooner rather than later. Alex Powell (Fairfield), Madeleine Morrissey (St. Ursula Academy), Hanna Merritt (St. Ursula Academy), and Caroline Mink (Turpin) all hail from the Queen City, which should come as no surprise considering Head Coach Mike Tucker once coached club soccer in Cincinnati and lived south of Dayton for many years. Powell was a 2nd Team All-Ohio selection and should contribute early as a MF/F. The same goes for Morrissey and Mink, while Merritt has a better chance somewhere in the back line. The only Dayton-area recruit is Emily Trick, a 5-4 MF/D from Alter.

Jordan Pauley, a 5-7 MF, was 1st Team All-State and State Player of the Year out of West Virginia. Micayla Livingston (North Huntingdon, PA), is a 5-4 MF and two-time All-State selection from Pennsylvania. Allie Haddad is a 5-6 MF from Wisconsin. Dayton brought in one goalkeeper this year: 5-7 Emily Jones from Overland Park, KS.

THE SCHEDULE

Dayton opens the season on Friday Aug. 19 at Cincinnati, followed by another in-state roadie at Ohio University on Sunday Aug. 21. The home opener is against Bucknell on Aug. 26th, followed by Kent State on the 28th. UD remains at home for two more matches against Xavier and Purdue.

The Flyers return their home/home match with Nebraska that was canceled by lightning last season after a 2hr delay at Baujan Field. They take on the Cornhuskers in Lincoln on Sept. 9th. UD picks up a second road game with Nebraska-Omaha two days later. The non-conference portion of the season ends with a trip to cross-town rival Wright State on Sept. 18th – a match the Flyers should be looking forward to after the stinging 1-0 defeat at home to the Raiders last year – the low point of the 2015 season.

The A10 schedule commences on Sept. 29th with ever-improving St. Louis at home, followed by two road games at George Mason and Davidson heading into October. UD returns to Baujan Field for two pivotal matches against A10 challengers VCU and LaSalle – matches that will probably decide the conference standings and A10 Tourney seeding. Dayton travels to Fordham on Oct. 16th and entertains URI at home four days later. UD travels to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne the following week – two matches played on plastic and ground-up Michelins that Flyer teams historically struggle on – followed by the season finale at home against UMass on Oct. 30th.

Overall, the non-conference schedule is not murderer’s row. There are winnable matches to take advantage of, provided the Flyers don’t snooze through the first two weeks of the season again. The A10 schedule sets up nicely for the Flyers. St. Louis, VCU, and LaSalle are all at home, giving Dayton a fighting chance inside the league. The Flyers also avoid last year's A10 regular season champ (GW). The Colonials went undefeated inside the league in 2015.

If there’s one match worth circling, it’s the game at Wright State. The Raiders embarrassed UD at home last year with a gut-check, blue-collar victory and broke a losing streak to UD that went back to the Big Bang. Rule #1 at Dayton: you are not allowed to lose to Wright State. Rule #2: See rule #1.

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Digesting the potential of the 2016 Flyers is not an exercise in high-level academics. UD graduated two of the most talented scoring and passing players in program history, yet despite that talent still only managed a 10-9-1 overall record a season ago. Without those studs, how can the Flyers outperform last year’s team with -- on paper -- less difference-making talent on offense?

We said things are not complicated, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a concern.

It’s hard to imagine this year’s team scoring goals anywhere near the same pace as a season ago, even if remaining players step up and do things previously unseen. It’s unlikely any one or two players will carry the load. Instead, the damage will be done by committee. In some respects perhaps that’s a good thing: past opponents fully understood that if you stopped the Flyer Canadians you effectively stopped the Flyers. Dayton was predictable on offense – not necessarily by design but out of necessity. Can the returning possession players and goal scorers feast on their own for the first time in their careers? The training wheels are officially off.

Defensively, the Flyers must take a major step forward or whatever the offense accomplishes probably won’t make a lasting difference. Dayton soccer tradition was built on suffocating defenses that counted clean sheets like opposing teams counted sheep. Somehow, UD must return to their stingy defensive ways of the past and drop their goal-against-average below 1.00 in order to give themselves a fighting chance – not only for their fresh-look offense but for any decent odds in the postseason tournaments when goals are harder to come by and shutouts advance your squad to the next round.

In other words, the Flyers are likely to score fewer goals in 2016, necessitating better defending and fewer goals-against. It’s just that simple. You can’t out-score everyone even with the best goal scorer and passing talent in program history on the same team. Dayton tried that with mixed results -- not that they had any other choice. But they have no choice again. They. Must. Defend. Better.

Work rate must be exceptional from kickoff to the final whistle. Nicole Waters set such a good example over the last four seasons but she’s no longer around to crack skulls and chase loose balls into the 90th minute. Others must step up and be ready to go – and that means for the season opener. Dayton trekked to Florida last year for season-opening matches against FIU and Florida Gulf Coast – both lethargic and uninspiring.

WHAT CAN’T HAPPEN

Senior Erin O’Malley can’t gravitate toward the mean and play average soccer. She is as good as she wants to be. Against Virginia Tech in the 2014 NCAAs, she played toe-to-toe with the Hokies’ uber-talented midfielders. She’s two years removed from that game and should be far better. And she is. But O’Malley has to first convince herself.

The Flyer midfield and back line cannot play Santa Claus for another season and gift the opposition soft goals that turn wins into ties or losses. Dayton’s toughest opponent in 2015 was Dayton: when UD got out of its’ own way they usually won the match. When the Flyers played the role of St. Nick, the results were often cataclysmic.

UD cannot start the season 0-4-1 again. Nuff’ said.

PREDICTIONS

Even in the leanest years, Flyer fans could still point to UD’s Rolls Royce players and say, “there may be serious question marks, but we still have X, Y, and Z on our team and everyone else doesn’t.” These players of Flyer past – Reba Sedlacek, Mandi Back, Colleen Williams, Kathleen Beljan, Juliana Libertin, Ashley Campbell, Nicole Waters – had the chops to cover up for a lot of potential team weaknesses that might keep an otherwise average team average.

It’s difficult to imagine that luxury existing on this year’s team, which makes 2016 unchartered territory. Perhaps this is the first season in two decades where Dayton is more alike than unalike in terms of comparisons to their A10 counterparts: there is talent on the field but maybe not the kind of individual talent that can make lemonade out of lemons with singular acts of brilliance. Who can pull bunnies out of the hat this year? Who has the tool kit to create something from nothing when the X’s and O’s fall apart?

We think O’Malley, Leedom, A. Kiehl, Kamphaus, and Blank need to have the best seasons of their careers. Griesinger, Weigel, Byrne, and Pestell must tag-team with GK Kaelyn Johns to pitch a few shutouts on defense and allow the offense to win a handful of matches by 1-0 scores. The midfielders must be better stewards with possession, eradicating hospital balls and being dis-possessed. If the mids do their part, the Dayton back line won’t have to defend short-handed.

Dayton needs to coalesce and embrace their diversity on offense. In past seasons, opponents could load up on a couple UD players and slow down the Flyer offense. In 2016, there’s a chance those players simply don’t exist. But all is not doom and gloom: scoring goals from many smaller canons rather than a couple brawny howitzers might end up a strength rather than a liability.

To their credit, Dayton righted the ship after the 0-4-1 start a year ago, going 8-2 in the A10 and finishing above .500 after a long and arduous climb back above the waterline. UD has what most programs don’t: a tradition of expectations and winning. The coaching staff might have to lean upon those tenets as much as ever, especially considering a handful of true freshmen will probably have to contribute right away in order to rack up some non-conference victories. If a couple newbies step up and surprise, some of the apprehension may be overstated.

The Flyers have never failed to qualify for the A10 Tournament and we believe even with all the questions surrounding this year’s team, UD should finish in the Top-8. If nothing else, the favorable A10 schedule eases those fears. But this program is about much bigger goals.

Conventional wisdom says “follow the data”. On data alone, this year’s team is a hunter and not one of the hunted. There are tons of question marks and most of them are the big-picture kind. Soccer is an unconventional sport however and rarely follows the script. On paper, this team should struggle and we think they will. But we also think the Flyers will be much better for it by the end of the season and playing their best soccer. The data points to a 5th place finish in the A10, but teams never seem to hit their projection – they do a bit better or worse.

We think the Flyers can and will outperform that, perhaps a 3rd place finish or better. That’s not easy for us to say considering this might be Mike Tucker’s most unassuming team in two decades. But a lot of things must go right and the margin for error is exceedingly thin. Still, turning the page on last year’s frustration might be the best medicine. New faces in the program – players that don’t know what they don’t know and play care-free soccer – have a chance to help turn the page too.

Our heart says never count the Flyers out. We’ve seen enough soccer to remember many Mike Tucker teams doing more with less than even we imagined they could. But those teams had X factors this one does not. If this team exceeds expectations, it will do so by embracing a product greater than the sum of the parts. Other teams will have something to say about it too.

The 2016 season is an open door of possibilities. The only thing we know for sure is Dayton will get out of it exactly what they put in. Nobody is going to feel sorry for the Flyers and their question marks on offense and defense. The scoreboard does all the talking and UD has 19 opportunities to say something profound.

A10 Season Prediction: 3rd Place
A10 Tourney Prediction: Semifinals
No Postseason
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