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  #1  
Old 01-07-2017, 12:19 AM
RamodWaleskowski RamodWaleskowski is offline
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RPI...Bracketology Threads??

One of my favorite things to do is get on here to read about the projections and RPI forecasts. Where did all of those threads go? These boards used to be littered with them. Lord knows I'm not smart enough to work with all those numbers haha.

All the same, where are our # crunchers at?? It's that time of the year. (I know I could check several different sites for the info I am looking for. The discussion around the information is the key for me.)
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:29 AM
Medford Medford is offline
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It's a shade early for a team with few big wins and squarely on the bubble to worry about the bubble, get thru the next couple of weeks and things will look a bit clearer. Once dance card gets going it's time to start paying more attention. Fwiw, palm had ud as an 11 seed in today's bracket while joey brackets had ud as a 9 seed in yesterday's update.

With few quality OOC wins and few opportunities in conference avoiding bad losses is going to be huge for UD this year. Will be interesting how the injuries to Cunningham (should he return) and pollard play into the view of UDs 3 losses to date.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:49 AM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
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FWIW, I view all that material as much more DIY now. I don't need to have other people, potentially not as unbiased and reliable with regards to math issues, telling me what they think about RPI projections, when I can just see the RPI simulated 10,000 times every day to give us a good idea about how past performance and future expectations are coming together.

As a bonus, if you don't like the way the RPI simulations are going, you can "force" wins or losses by using the RPI Wizard, and run all of your own personal What Ifs?, no matter how many you have.

www.rpiforecast.com is the answer, people.
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:12 AM
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I have essentially hijacked the Member? thread with some bracketology updates...lol.


http://www.udpride.com/forums/showth...t=29994&page=2
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post

www.rpiforecast.com is the answer, people.
GIGO.
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Old 01-08-2017, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
GIGO.
Fixed per the uri message boards thread.


http://www.udpride.com/forums/showth...585#post478585


Bracket matrix update...8.96 average, 9 seed, included in 46 of 46 brackets, high seed 5, low seed 12.


http://bracketmatrix.com/
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:01 PM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
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In my defense, I don't use rpiforecast for current RPI, because, ummmmmm, that's not what it's there for. Also, while I greatly appreciate that UDP's RPI endeavors to be the actual, correct RPI formulation, the difference caused by a mis-attributed venue in one game hardly renders the result "garbage."

In fact, given that the site is there for, it probably amounts to a statistically insignificant bit of noise that does nothing to drastically change the overall forecast of what RPI will look like at the end of the season. And for me, that's the take away from rpiforecast, which is different from anyone else's bracketology: instead of telling you how brackets would look if the season ended now, rpiforecast simulates the entire remaining season thousands of times per day, combines it with existing results, and gives you at least a vague idea of what things should look like on Selection Sunday.
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:41 PM
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Dont think a single, simple venue error doesn't matter much?

The RPI difference in Dayton playing in Springfield, MA vs UMass in 2009 was the difference in 6-7 RPI spots. We had to press the NCAA to switch it from a neutral game to a road game after badgering them about it for weeks and providing evidence of how prior UMass games in Springfield were handed. They finally changed it just before the NCAA bracket. Without the constant nagging, I doubt we make the NCAAs. If you recall, we were the third to the last at-large team selected. Only Wisconsin and Arizona received #12 seeds. *

There is no such thing as an insignificant error. The data is just too compact anymore.

* I use this story every time I need a favor from UD. At some point they are going to call the statute of limitations on me.
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  #9  
Old 01-08-2017, 09:38 PM
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BTW, rpiforeast corrected and accurate now for current RPI for Dayton. Agree does not have the same rigor that udpride has, but interesting to see potential outcomes, confidence intervals, and contribution of individual team's to UD's RPI. But acknowledge the NCAA Committee places huge significance between beating #49 and #51 in the way the present the data to committee members even though the difference is statistically meaningless.
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Old 01-12-2017, 10:17 AM
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Today's update...still a 9...Michigan State must have turned things around, there was some earlier talk of them missing the NCAAT.



http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?&...&iteration=196
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Old 01-12-2017, 01:36 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Dayton a 9? Laughable.

We can make the tournament but no amount of number bending gets us in the tournament as of today.
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Old 01-12-2017, 02:00 PM
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Usually I'm interested in the projections and Bracketology, but I think this season is fairly simple: Dayton needs to finish first or second (at worst) in the A 10 and/or win the conference tourney.

That's it. There's your Bracketology for this year.
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Old 01-12-2017, 09:33 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Dayton a 9? Laughable.

We can make the tournament but no amount of number bending gets us in the tournament as of today.
Yours and others' posts about Lunardi are really quite remarkable IMO.

It was not very long ago that many posters on here complained a bunch about Lunardi being the mastermind behind some grand conspiracy to exclude and/or job UD in the ESPN bracketology updates, claiming that he was somehow biased against UD and hated UD.

Now, this board has done a complete 180 in the other direction. Now, the complaint is that Lunardi is showing us too much respect and overrating us.

Some people are never happy and will always find something to complain about.

Some people do not know how to handle good press.

Last edited by ud2; 01-12-2017 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 01-12-2017, 09:49 PM
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Despite what your saying.....it's hard to disagree with the dissenters isn't it.

They may whine but they are right on.
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Old 01-12-2017, 10:15 PM
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Dayton would be absolutely in if the NCAA selected today (would they be a 9, 10, or 11 seed, who knows). Raw rankings: 39 kenpom, 35 RPI, 5-4 top 100 with zero bad losses including 1-3 top 50, and 3-3 road/neutral.

There are not 40 better resumes in the NCAA. Let's get off the emotional low of losing @Umass. BTW, they are 77 in RPI and 117 kenpom (and kenpom would say that is equivalent to losing to 67 at home as on the road is so much more difficult). Defense was great again versus Umass, but the offense was tough. It happens.
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Old 01-13-2017, 11:19 AM
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Here is a very interesting article about members of the NCAA Selection Committee having a "summit" with the top basketball metric gurus next week in Indianapolis:

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ocess-involves

"From Jeff Sagarin and his golden mean, to Ken Pomeroy and his adjusted offensive efficiency, to Kevin Pauga and his KPI to Ben Alamar with ESPN’s BPI, they’ll all be there. A math geek’s dream team."

The article has several interesting quotes from Dan Gavitt, the NCAA senior vice president of basketball and Jim Schaus, the Ohio University athletic director who will be representing the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee.

The overall gist is that it sounds like the committee will be de-emphasizing the RPI (which has already been happening the last few years) and instead moving towards emphasizing a composite type ranking using a number of the analytical systems.

Any composite index that is based on sound analytical principles is better than the emphasis on the RPI, Strength of Schedule, or worst of all "the eye test."

For comparison, here are UD's current ranking in the ranking systems mentioned
RPI: 30
KenPom: 39
KPI: 28
Sagarin: 41
BPI: n/a*
Composite: 34.5 (which would translate to the 8/9 seed range)

*the ESPN BPI page says a new and improved BPI page will be launched in early 2017 and no data/rankings are posted on the webpage
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Old 01-13-2017, 11:47 AM
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I don't recall who said it, but a couple weeks ago I heard a proposal that the selection committee meet in December after OOC games are complete and release a preliminary bracket or at least ranking (without match ups and locations) similar to what is done for college football playoffs. Not a projection, but a snapshot of if the season ended today.
This would give teams a measure of where they stand and what they need to do.
Additionally, updates would be released periodically between December and March.
Personally, I think it's a good idea because it lends transparency to the process. There would still be plenty of drama in late February and conference tournaments as rankings would get shuffled. It would also help fans understand how a school projected my many bracketologists to be a 9 or 10 seed suddenly ends up playing on their home floor in the First Four.
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Old 01-13-2017, 12:29 PM
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Analytics and talking heads had us in and as a 8 or 9 2 years ago. Then we got put in the First Four and played Boise
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Old 01-13-2017, 12:53 PM
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Oh snap, UD is a 8 seed in CBS' latest bracketology.

Commence complaints about UD being overrated in 3...2...1...


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Old 01-13-2017, 02:44 PM
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booked

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Oh snap, UD is a 8 seed in CBS' latest bracketology.

Commence complaints about UD being overrated in 3...2...1...


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
No complaints here.
Just booked my flight to Tulsa!


Sarcasm aside, I could see UD being sent to Tulsa. Hoping for Buffalo.
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
Here is a very interesting article about members of the NCAA Selection Committee having a "summit" with the top basketball metric gurus next week in Indianapolis:

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ocess-involves

"From Jeff Sagarin and his golden mean, to Ken Pomeroy and his adjusted offensive efficiency, to Kevin Pauga and his KPI to Ben Alamar with ESPN’s BPI, they’ll all be there. A math geek’s dream team."

The article has several interesting quotes from Dan Gavitt, the NCAA senior vice president of basketball and Jim Schaus, the Ohio University athletic director who will be representing the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee.

The overall gist is that it sounds like the committee will be de-emphasizing the RPI (which has already been happening the last few years) and instead moving towards emphasizing a composite type ranking using a number of the analytical systems.

Any composite index that is based on sound analytical principles is better than the emphasis on the RPI, Strength of Schedule, or worst of all "the eye test."

For comparison, here are UD's current ranking in the ranking systems mentioned
RPI: 30
KenPom: 39
KPI: 28
Sagarin: 41
BPI: n/a*
Composite: 34.5 (which would translate to the 8/9 seed range)

*the ESPN BPI page says a new and improved BPI page will be launched in early 2017 and no data/rankings are posted on the webpage
Totally agree. The only thing the committee does still with RPI is from a data presentation layer they categorize top 25/50/100 wins/losses using RPI. Which is so faulty, but they do it.

The computers focus not only on wins/losses, but also on where the game was played and margin of win or loss (sometimes points per possession scored or allowed). I hate to say it, but this makes every possession count even in blow-out wins or losses.
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Old 01-13-2017, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Analytics and talking heads had us in and as a 8 or 9 2 years ago. Then we got put in the First Four and played Boise
Agree...I was just giving you a hard time about Lunardi...we can enjoy rosy, but possibly inaccurate/overly optimistic, bracketology reports, while still keeping it real and remembering that the selection committee is the ultimate authority.

I just want people to enjoy the good press.

When the Dance Card gets going near the end of January, that will really clear things up.

Dance Card started doing updates on January 18th last year.

Last edited by ud2; 01-13-2017 at 10:55 PM..
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Old 01-14-2017, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
Here is a very interesting article about members of the NCAA Selection Committee having a "summit" with the top basketball metric gurus next week in Indianapolis:

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ocess-involves

"From Jeff Sagarin and his golden mean, to Ken Pomeroy and his adjusted offensive efficiency, to Kevin Pauga and his KPI to Ben Alamar with ESPN’s BPI, they’ll all be there. A math geek’s dream team."

WHERE IS FIGGIE ON THIS LIST?

We need proper representation!
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  #24  
Old 01-14-2017, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Agree...I was just giving you a hard time about Lunardi...we can enjoy rosy, but possibly inaccurate/overly optimistic, bracketology reports, while still keeping it real and remembering that the selection committee is the ultimate authority.

I just want people to enjoy the good press.

When the Dance Card gets going near the end of January, that will really clear things up.

Dance Card started doing updates on January 18th last year.
Interesting you said this. I was unaware Dance Card started in January. I always assumed it was November. I never really looked until the middle of February. But anyway, as soon as i read your 1st Lunardi post i commented on, i went straight to Dance Card. When i got there i learned it won't start until later this month. Dance Card is always SPOT on. Most accurate of them all atleast.

I just found it as odd as it is that though we are on opposite spectrums of this we both reference Dance Card as the likely end all be all.

i encourage all Flyer fans who want TRUE accuracy ( at least where UD is concerned) you check Dance Card daily the day it starts

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Old 01-14-2017, 03:31 PM
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www.bracketmatrix.com update today, pre-Duquesne.


8.97 average, 9 seed, high 6 seed, low 11 seed, included in 60 of 63 brackets.
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Old 01-14-2017, 03:37 PM
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Richmond is 5-0 in conference play and #122 in the RPI!
Must win game for the Flyers next week.
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Old 01-14-2017, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Interesting you said this. I was unaware Dance Card started in January. I always assumed it was November. I never really looked until the middle of February. But anyway, as soon as i read your 1st Lunardi post i commented on, i went straight to Dance Card. When i got there i learned it won't start until later this month. Dance Card is always SPOT on. Most accurate of them all atleast.

I just found it as odd as it is that though we are on opposite spectrums of this we both reference Dance Card as the likely end all be all.

i encourage all Flyer fans who want TRUE accuracy ( at least where UD is concerned) you check Dance Card daily the day it starts
I'm 99% sure that I was arguing against the conventional bracketology wisdom in 2015, and instead arguing that UD was on the bubble based upon what Dance Card was saying, I am too lazy to go back and see what I posted.

In the final 2015 DC update, UD actually did not make the cut and was left out of the NCAAT field.

The comments on the CBS site on some/all of Palm's brackets include a lot of criticism, so you are not the only one that is skeptical of what these supposed bracket experts are saying.

Dance Card, as far as I know, is by far the most accurate site.

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Old 01-14-2017, 10:14 PM
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I love following Dance Card, but didn't they miss a bunch last year? Am I remembering that correctly?
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Old 01-15-2017, 12:19 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
I love following Dance Card, but didn't they miss a bunch last year? Am I remembering that correctly?
Last year's final update by DC is still posted at: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm. It is not notated to mark the incorrect picks.

It would be nice if they would notate the final update to see which picks they got wrong in terms of seed and/or missing or making the field.


The DC seems to have been very accurate over its entire history, it looks like the formula has been tweaked through the years, resulting in improved accuracy.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/perform.htm


Final updates from past years:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/past.htm


I would like to see the historical accuracy for the sites on bracket matrix.

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Old 01-15-2017, 12:34 AM
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Notice they had Syracuse several spots below the Bubble Burst line with only a 3% chance to make the field. We all know what happened there. Maybe that's why I thought they were way off last year. Looks like they also missed Vanderbilt, Wichita State, and Tulsa.
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  #31  
Old 01-15-2017, 12:48 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Notice they had Syracuse several spots below the Bubble Burst line with only a 3% chance to make the field. We all know what happened there. Maybe that's why I thought they were way off last year. Looks like they also missed Vanderbilt, Wichita State, and Tulsa.
Actually, I was wrong, they have notated their misses for every year except last year.

They will probably notate last year's misses once this year's updates begin.

They had a perfect bracket in 2013, they correctly predicted every team in the field that year.

Last edited by ud2; 01-15-2017 at 12:51 AM..
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Old 01-15-2017, 01:00 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
I just found it as odd as it is that though we are on opposite spectrums of this we both reference Dance Card as the likely end all be all.
Just because I post updates from Lunardi, Palm, and bracket matrix doesn't mean that I agree with them. Sorry if I implied that.

I think we are actually on the same end of the spectrum.

If the rpiforecast for UD is correct, 36 rpi, 72 sos, 0-1 rpi 1-25, 2-2 rpi 26-50, 6-2 rpi 51-100, then, based upon the last 3 seeds for UD, I will guess that UD gets an 11 seed not in the first four.

We need to get better from here on out to avoid being on the bubble.



An earlier post from 224:

Last year RPI 21. SOS 49. 4-3 vs Top 50. We were a 7.
In 2015 RPI 32. SOS 113. 1-3 vs Top 50. We were in play in game.
In 2014 RPI 42. SOS 52. 4-6 vs Top 50. We were an 11.
This year we are projecting to be RPI 39. SOS 70 and 2-4 vs top 50.

Last edited by ud2; 01-15-2017 at 01:36 AM..
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Old 01-15-2017, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I would like to see the historical accuracy for the sites on bracket matrix.
I like Bracket Matrix as it is more of the good old eyeball test, which seems to be more of what the brackets makers use than actual stats like SOS or RPI, which they should be using.
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  #34  
Old 01-15-2017, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Notice they had Syracuse several spots below the Bubble Burst line with only a 3% chance to make the field. We all know what happened there. Maybe that's why I thought they were way off last year. Looks like they also missed Vanderbilt, Wichita State, and Tulsa.


Precisely. And it was at 3% because it was a rip job of the highest order they got in over St. Bonaventure and St. Mary's. Swap the names on the jersey and the situations (Boeheim) and a different team gets in.

i don't care they made the Final Four. They didn't deserve to be there.
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  #35  
Old 01-15-2017, 02:21 PM
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The loss to Nebraska is screwing up our sos...beat Nebraska, lose to UCLA, and then play Virginia Tech.

Per the rpi wizard, that changes the projected final sos to 59 instead of 73 and helps to get us closer to not being on the bubble.

Lose to UCLA and beat VT...rpi 25 sos 59.

Lose to UCLA and lose to VT...rpi 28 sos 59.

Beat UCLA and beat TAMU...rpi 23 sos 60.

Beat UCLA and lose to TAMU...rpi 26 sos 60.

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  #36  
Old 01-15-2017, 09:14 PM
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6 opponents are between 100 and 110 in the RPI. Would be nice if they could all sneak in the top 100.
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Old 01-16-2017, 11:11 AM
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I think DC will start UD off as an 8 or 9 seed.

Unfortunately, with so many 100+rpi and 200+rpi league games left, unless UD only loses 1 or 2 more, UD's rpi and sos will continue to suffer, and DC's final update will have UD as an 11 seed.

Richmond 111 projected rpi
GW 148
George Mason 137
SLU x2 at 273
Fordham 246
Duquesne 218, again
St. Joe's 117

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  #38  
Old 01-16-2017, 11:44 AM
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I would rather have an 11 seed over 9 or 8.
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Old 01-16-2017, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Notice they had Syracuse several spots below the Bubble Burst line with only a 3% chance to make the field. We all know what happened there. Maybe that's why I thought they were way off last year. Looks like they also missed Vanderbilt, Wichita State, and Tulsa.
It is my understanding the DC % chance to make the field is actually a percent of previous teams with that same profile making the NCAAT. It isn't actually a % change of making the field.
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  #40  
Old 01-17-2017, 09:34 AM
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Some interesting opponents stuff lately:

*Nebraska is #1 in SOS.
*Rhodey sneaks into the top 50
*Alabama is 8-4 in their last 12, and 3-1 in SEC.
*ETSU 4-1 in conference
*Winthrop 5-1 in conf

Seems like our AD has done very well with our schedule. With an RPI of 27 and SOS of 29, especially in view of a few close losses we could have had, seems like we just have to hold serve and steal a few more on the road. I did not think we had a prayer of sitting that good with half the season over.

Is that way too optimistic?
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Old 01-17-2017, 10:17 AM
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Northwestern is #26 in USA Total and tied for #29 in AP.
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Old 01-17-2017, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
Northwestern is #26 in USA Total and tied for #29 in AP.
Cubs win the World Series. Northwestern makes first NCAA tourney ever? Big things could be happening in Chi town.
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  #43  
Old 01-17-2017, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Some interesting opponents stuff lately:

*Nebraska is #1 in SOS.
*Rhodey sneaks into the top 50
*Alabama is 8-4 in their last 12, and 3-1 in SEC.
*ETSU 4-1 in conference
*Winthrop 5-1 in conf

Seems like our AD has done very well with our schedule. With an RPI of 27 and SOS of 29, especially in view of a few close losses we could have had, seems like we just have to hold serve and steal a few more on the road. I did not think we had a prayer of sitting that good with half the season over.

Is that way too optimistic?
A little. But great points SDF.

i'm a believer in ETSU and BAMA.

If the Rhody big guy isn't back at 100% they are toast. Lost to LaSalle but just beat Umass when big guy Hassan Martin played well.

Let's see how far and well Nebraska does. Winthrop should keep rolling.
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Old 01-17-2017, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
Northwestern is #26 in USA Total and tied for #29 in AP.
thats huge also. Anyone have SOS and RPI for Northwestern?
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Old 01-17-2017, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
Northwestern is #26 in USA Total and tied for #29 in AP.
thats huge also. Anyone have SOS and RPI for Northwestern?

Actually 41 for Northwestern rpi.
46 for Nebraska
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Old 01-21-2017, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Interesting you said this. I was unaware Dance Card started in January. I always assumed it was November. I never really looked until the middle of February. But anyway, as soon as i read your 1st Lunardi post i commented on, i went straight to Dance Card. When i got there i learned it won't start until later this month. Dance Card is always SPOT on. Most accurate of them all atleast.

I just found it as odd as it is that though we are on opposite spectrums of this we both reference Dance Card as the likely end all be all.

i encourage all Flyer fans who want TRUE accuracy ( at least where UD is concerned) you check Dance Card daily the day it starts
I scrolled through Dance Card's Twitter feed, which goes back about 4 years...the one year they did not start doing updates until early February, we may have to wait some more.


Bracket matrix still has us as a 9 seed as of Wednesday.


http://bracketmatrix.com
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  #47  
Old 01-21-2017, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I scrolled through Dance Card's Twitter feed, which goes back about 4 years...the one year they did not start doing updates until early February, we may have to wait some more.


Bracket matrix still has us as a 9 seed as of Wednesday.


http://bracketmatrix.com
Not only that but we are in every single one.

i guess the great screw job of two years ago has skewered the way i approach it. I was convinced we were a #7 two years ago. Apocalyptic end of the world worst case scenario we were a 10. And lo and behold we played Boise in the First Four.

I just don't understand how a group of the smartest people who have ONE JOB for a week can get it so epically wrong.

UCLA,Texas and Indiana 2 years ago and Syracuse last year were just a few of the comedic errors they have made. And its not just me that thinks it...

They went 3-12 against the Top 50! Thats better then (Insert non Power 5) had! They were only 2-1! We just felt they passed the eye test! Their body of work was better! Their 70 year old coach who doesn't play missed half the season due to his own stupidity!
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  #48  
Old 01-21-2017, 10:58 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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After last year, I have less confidence in Dance Card's accuracy in predicting what the current committee will do.
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Old 01-21-2017, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
After last year, I have less confidence in Dance Card's accuracy in predicting what the current committee will do.
You see it backwards from the way i do, i think Dance Card gets it right and the Committee misses the boat. Dance Card had us right on the cutline 2 years ago. Everyone else had us in the "lock" or "safely in" category. So the committee to me sometimes gets it right.

Maybe Dance Card should fill out and seed the whole **** thing.
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Old 01-21-2017, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
You see it backwards from the way i do, i think Dance Card gets it right and the Committee misses the boat. Dance Card had us right on the cutline 2 years ago. Everyone else had us in the "lock" or "safely in" category. So the committee to me sometimes gets it right.

Maybe Dance Card should fill out and seed the whole **** thing.
Dance Card's methodology is all based on passed committee's work. They have no independent thought. They do not do any analysis on who should be in. You can agree or disagree with the last few committee's picks but with changing criteria, Dance Card will not be reliable.
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  #51  
Old 01-21-2017, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Larymike View Post
It is my understanding the DC % chance to make the field is actually a percent of previous teams with that same profile making the NCAAT. It isn't actually a % change of making the field.
Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
You see it backwards from the way i do, i think Dance Card gets it right and the Committee misses the boat. Dance Card had us right on the cutline 2 years ago. Everyone else had us in the "lock" or "safely in" category. So the committee to me sometimes gets it right.

Maybe Dance Card should fill out and seed the whole **** thing.
I think the DC does an excellent job of measuring whether the selection committee is consistent from year to year...last year, Syracuse's resume only got in 3% of the time based on what the committee usually does...so, basically Syracuse got in because of their name.

The same thing happened with UCLA in 2015...their name got them in...per the DC Twitter feed, UCLA bucked 1428 to 1 odds in 2015 in getting a bid.

Dayton was out in 2015 if UConn would have won their last? game, per the committee chairman.


Past years' DC starting dates:

January 18, 2016

January 19, 2015

January 13, 2014

February 5, 2013

February 22, 2012
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  #52  
Old 01-21-2017, 01:27 PM
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I would bet they release the first one on Monday. Seven weeks from Selection Sunday
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Old 01-21-2017, 01:49 PM
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Wow, UCLA getting a bid in 2015 was nuts...the committee picks a team with that resume only 0.07% of the time.

Last team in was #47...UCLA was #58...11 spots below the cut line.


Rank...Team (@=automatic bid)...Dance Card...Chance of Bid...RPI Rank

58 UCLA (miss) -3.2035 0.07% 45


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm
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  #54  
Old 01-21-2017, 02:04 PM
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Article from the Sporting News that discusses the NCAA's meeting with basketball analytics experts.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...e1agjwdwiv0wk1

A few takeaways with supporting quotes:
1) The analytics guys are smart enough to believe that if you won or lost the game is much more important than any advanced stats.

"...Ken Pomeroy, the mathematician behind the influential KenPom ratings, declared he is 'totally in favor of using a results-based approach to picking teams. It’s why you watch games: you want to see teams win or lose.'”

2) More emphasis needs to be given for where games are played. Record for Top 50 or Top 100 is irrelevant without context for where the game is played. Ken Pomeroy and others have used the data to shown that playing #25 at home equates to #50 on neutral site and #75 on road. Currently the "team sheet" that members use features a breakdown of record against the RPI top 50, teams ranked 51-100, etc, with venue noted and non-conference games highlighted. The analytics suggest those resumes don’t given enough emphasis to road victories.

"Pauga presented the idea of breaking down a team’s record into four categories. The most prominent category would include, hypothetically, a team’s results at home against top 25 teams, on neutral courts against top 50 teams, and on the road against those in the top 75."
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  #55  
Old 01-22-2017, 08:04 PM
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On my CBS Sports app is an article, which includes a section on "Teams Building as Tourney Sleepers."
They include: (as per Jerry Palm)
St. Mary's Gaels, projected no. 6 seed (too bad we lost to them)
Dayton Flyers, projected no. 8 seed
Indiana Hoosiers, projected no 9 seed
NC ST Wolfpack, projected no 11 seed
Dayton--
Riding a streak of four straight NCAA appearances, the ingredients for a memorable mid-major run are in place. The senior core of CC, SS, KD and KP will be making their final run after last season's A10 title. Archie Miller has done it already, orchestrating an Elite Eight run for the Flyers in 2014, and can be counted on to do it again with one of the winningest senior classes in program history.
Of course, projections now are pretty meaningless, but......
I LIKE IT! Now just live up to projections.

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  #56  
Old 01-22-2017, 08:14 PM
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Anyone else think that Michigan St. will be this year's "eye test" team?
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  #57  
Old 01-22-2017, 08:16 PM
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team needs a healthy Cunningham
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Old 01-23-2017, 01:31 PM
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8 seed in Lunardi's and Jerry Palm's latest

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Only other A10 team is VCU (11 seed, last four byes). URI first four out.

Jerry Palm also has UD as a 8, with URI as 11 and VCU out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

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  #59  
Old 01-24-2017, 11:15 AM
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As of Monday night we have moved up in Bracket Matrix to the second 8th seed, an average seed of 8.14.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

VCU is on the 10/11 seed boarder. A loss Friday shouldn't move us down much if at all, but a win would be enormous and give us some real cushion.
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Old 01-24-2017, 11:22 AM
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Taking a page from the CFB playoff, for the first time the NCAA will release a mid-season look at the bracket. It will only cover the first four seeds in each region (top 16 teams total) and will be televised on Feb 11 at 12:30pm on CBS.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ason-look-ncaa
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  #61  
Old 01-24-2017, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
Taking a page from the CFB playoff, for the first time the NCAA will release a mid-season look at the bracket. It will only cover the first four seeds in each region (top 16 teams total) and will be televised on Feb 11 at 12:30pm on CBS.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ason-look-ncaa
Win-out until then and we might have a chance to be on that list. That would include road wins over URI and VCU.
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  #62  
Old 01-24-2017, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
Taking a page from the CFB playoff, for the first time the NCAA will release a mid-season look at the bracket. It will only cover the first four seeds in each region (top 16 teams total) and will be televised on Feb 11 at 12:30pm on CBS.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ason-look-ncaa
This is so pointless. There is zero controversy of who the first 16 teams are. It would be like doing an election preview and only covering CA, NY, AL, and TX. It is the last teams in that make the difference. If they really wanted to do something that was not a complete ratings grab, they would do an entire bracket and EXPLAIN why some teams are in and other are out. What a waste.
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  #63  
Old 01-24-2017, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
This is so pointless. There is zero controversy of who the first 16 teams are. It would be like doing an election preview and only covering CA, NY, AL, and TX. It is the last teams in that make the difference. If they really wanted to do something that was not a complete ratings grab, they would do an entire bracket and EXPLAIN why some teams are in and other are out. What a waste.
I agree that this adds little. While 14-18 (or there about) is interesting, the excitement is the bubble.
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  #64  
Old 01-24-2017, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill202 View Post
I agree that this adds little. While 14-18 (or there about) is interesting, the excitement is the bubble.
The excitement is the bubble and that's not going to change in any capacity. But I do think there's some upside to this, beyond just a rating grab. Think of who the Top 16-20 teams usually are. They are typically teams/institutions with large national followings. They all know they're in, but don't yet know where they're headed (location). Short of the #1 seeds, this may create some more educated planning/prep on behalf of fan bases. I think any kind of publicity and greater transparency in advance is good for the sport and good for the tournament.
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Old 01-24-2017, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Short of the #1 seeds, this may create some more educated planning/prep on behalf of fan bases. I think any kind of publicity and greater transparency in advance is good for the sport and good for the tournament.
I'm fine with the transparency and the "talking heads" on TV will love the extra story to cover. Give that the top 4 seeds are fairly locked, I would postulate that 50% or less of the 5-16 seeds would remain the same. I'm not sure how much this helps planning.
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  #66  
Old 01-24-2017, 07:04 PM
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Interesting article with takes from several experts about the planned changes in the selection process. Sagarin's take at the end is particularly interesting.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...ction-process/

As per usual, it boils down to who did you play, and who did you beat... the devil is in the details of how to rank these things.
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  #67  
Old 01-24-2017, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
This is so pointless. There is zero controversy of who the first 16 teams are. It would be like doing an election preview and only covering CA, NY, AL, and TX. It is the last teams in that make the difference. If they really wanted to do something that was not a complete ratings grab, they would do an entire bracket and EXPLAIN why some teams are in and other are out. What a waste.
I bet if Dayton had beat Nebraska, St. Mary's, Northwestern, and UMass, we might think this was a little more exciting. If it is all we want to make the tournament, then the bubble is the most exciting, but if it the goal is finals fours and championship runs, then I will be very interested to see where we would stand in all this, after all the real point of being in the tournament is to win it.

With a few exceptions, one of the top four seeds wins the big prize.
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  #68  
Old 01-24-2017, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
Interesting article with takes from several experts about the planned changes in the selection process. Sagarin's take at the end is particularly interesting.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...ction-process/

As per usual, it boils down to who did you play, and who did you beat... the devil is in the details of how to rank these things.
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Jerry Palm was on the radio tonight...heard him say that the single biggest way to impress the committee is to beat teams that qualify for the NCAAT...that is very hard to do when the p5/BE schools are very stingy about scheduling away or neutral games.

The whole thing is a monopoly...the p5/BE controls everything...only about 6 non-p5/BE schools are in line for an at-large bid this year...SMC, Gonzaga, Dayton, VCU, SMU, and Cincinnati...maybe URI too.

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  #69  
Old 01-24-2017, 08:10 PM
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I've been saying for a long time that I fear these analytics becoming to big a part of the selection process because in my opinion it de-emphasizes winning as the biggest component. I would take a team that finds a way to win more often than not even if it's not pretty and their offensive efficiency or defensive ranking is not as highly regarded. I know the large amount of teams in D1 make it difficult to use just winning but I'd hate to see it become de-emphasized too much. That's the one thing I like about pro sports is that your record is what gets you in. I know that's impossible in college sports but isn't winning the ultimate goal of playing sports?
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  #70  
Old 01-24-2017, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Jerry Palm was on the radio tonight...heard him say that the single biggest way to impress the committee is to beat teams that qualify for the NCAAT...that is very hard to do when the p5/BE schools are very stingy about scheduling away or neutral games.

The whole thing is a monopoly...the p5/BE controls everything...only about 6 non-p5/BE schools are in line for an at-large bid this year...SMC, Gonzaga, Dayton, VCU, SMU, and Cincinnati...maybe URI too.
I'd throw MTSU, Illinois St., and Wilmington in there too. For the simple fact that they could win their way into an RPI that is statistically guaranteed to make the field.
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Old 01-24-2017, 09:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post

The whole thing is a monopoly...the p5/BE controls everything...only about 6 non-p5/BE schools are in line for an at-large bid this year...SMC, Gonzaga, Dayton, VCU, SMU, and Cincinnati...maybe URI too.
The p5/BE would never agree, but if you don't finish in the top half of your league or win your tourney, you shouldn't make the NCAAT.
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Bill202 View Post
The p5/BE would never agree, but if you don't finish in the top half of your league or win your tourney, you shouldn't make the NCAAT.
I generally agree with that but I can accept an under .500 team if they have proven themselves OOC. I think it is BS if a below .500 team makes it and their only significant wins are in conference.
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Old 01-25-2017, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
Interesting article with takes from several experts about the planned changes in the selection process. Sagarin's take at the end is particularly interesting.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...ction-process/

As per usual, it boils down to who did you play, and who did you beat... the devil is in the details of how to rank these things.
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It also boils down to....overthinking...any one of us (well, almost any one of us) could come within 1-3 teams of picking the same field of 68 as the stiffs in the room in Indy. And those we get wrong will bit** just like those snubbed do on Selection Sunday.
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Old 01-25-2017, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Jerry Palm was on the radio tonight...heard him say that the single biggest way to impress the committee is to beat teams that qualify for the NCAAT...that is very hard to do when the p5/BE schools are very stingy about scheduling away or neutral games.

The whole thing is a monopoly...the p5/BE controls everything...only about 6 non-p5/BE schools are in line for an at-large bid this year...SMC, Gonzaga, Dayton, VCU, SMU, and Cincinnati...maybe URI too.
Exactly. What looks more impressive 2 wins or 3 wins vs Tournament teams? The answer should be, how many opportunities did they have? If Team A won 2 out of 4 against TT and team B won 3 out of 10, which team has proven they can beat that caliber of opponents? You might argue Team A doesn't have a very compelling argument due to the sample size, but Team B has certainly proven they aren't likely to beat TT.
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Old 01-25-2017, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill202 View Post
I'm fine with the transparency and the "talking heads" on TV will love the extra story to cover. Give that the top 4 seeds are fairly locked, I would postulate that 50% or less of the 5-16 seeds would remain the same. I'm not sure how much this helps planning.
Wouldn't it be nice for Dayton Nation to know a couple of weeks in advance where we're headed? This really helps those fan bases to start making realistic travels plans in advance of Selection Sunday.
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Old 01-25-2017, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Wouldn't it be nice for Dayton Nation to know a couple of weeks in advance where we're headed? This really helps those fan bases to start making realistic travels plans in advance of Selection Sunday.
I doubt we are in the top 16 teams. I'd love to be wrong.
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by 66flyer View Post
On my CBS Sports app is an article, which includes a section on "Teams Building as Tourney Sleepers."
They include: (as per Jerry Palm)
St. Mary's Gaels, projected no. 6 seed (too bad we lost to them)
Dayton Flyers, projected no. 8 seed
Indiana Hoosiers, projected no 9 seed
NC ST Wolfpack, projected no 11 seed
Dayton--
Riding a streak of four straight NCAA appearances, the ingredients for a memorable mid-major run are in place. The senior core of CC, SS, KD and KP will be making their final run after last season's A10 title. Archie Miller has done it already, orchestrating an Elite Eight run for the Flyers in 2014, and can be counted on to do it again with one of the winningest senior classes in program history.
Of course, projections now are pretty meaningless, but......
I LIKE IT! Now just live up to projections.
A) we are riding a streak of 3 NCAA appearances.
B) we are a high major school in a mid-major conference.

Yet, this mid-major conference got 6 bids 3 years ago, hows that possible?

I would expect better from Jerry Palm, his job revolves around following sports. Of course his Twitter Feed leading up to the election was rife with politics. I don't understand these sports guys on an official sports platform pushing their politics.
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Old 01-26-2017, 09:12 AM
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Chris Mack agrees, the early seeding show is a no show.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...lous/97051510/
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Old 01-26-2017, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Chris Mack agrees, the early seeding show is a no show.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...lous/97051510/
He's right!
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Old 01-26-2017, 10:28 AM
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The NCAA and CBS (or whatever network is involved) will eventually screw things up. With football, there are only 4 teams total that make it. The 5th team is out. With 16 teams, there are still 52 more teams that will make it. I think there are a lot more regular college football fans than college basketball fans. March Madness is initially about the little guy beating the big guy. About upsets. Then it gets to the best. The early games catches the audience and they stick around. Eventually the power 5 is going to pull away and they will ruin the whole thing. It will be a really good basketball tournament but will lose the early drama and thus will lose the audience.
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Old 01-26-2017, 10:58 AM
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it is stupid. there are already countless people and sites already doing and debating this. the only reason for the NCAA to do this is that, true to form, they see people garnering attention and potential $$ on their tournament and they want it for themselves. I can't tell you haow much it pains me to say it, but I completely agree with Chris Mack on this one....
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Old 01-26-2017, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Wouldn't it be nice for Dayton Nation to know a couple of weeks in advance where we're headed? This really helps those fan bases to start making realistic travels plans in advance of Selection Sunday.
I'm not sure what to think If someone books their trip based on this show
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Old 01-26-2017, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by AC91 View Post
it is stupid. there are already countless people and sites already doing and debating this. the only reason for the NCAA to do this is that, true to form, they see people garnering attention and potential $$ on their tournament and they want it for themselves. I can't tell you haow much it pains me to say it, but I completely agree with Chris Mack on this one....
CBS pays big money to televise the NCAA Tournament. I guarantee this show, no matter how contrived, will draw better ratings than the 12:30pm pregame show that CBS was going to televise before the Kentucky-Alabama game they will be showing at 1pm.

My guess is that CBS saw the ratings ESPN got for those CFP rankings shows and wanted to do one for basketball. NCAA complied because they want to keep CBS happy. When in doubt, follow the money.
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Old 01-26-2017, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
CBS pays big money to televise the NCAA Tournament. I guarantee this show, no matter how contrived, will draw better ratings than the 12:30pm pregame show that CBS was going to televise before the Kentucky-Alabama game they will be showing at 1pm.

My guess is that CBS saw the ratings ESPN got for those CFP rankings shows and wanted to do one for basketball. NCAA complied because they want to keep CBS happy. When in doubt, follow the money.
I agree the ratings will be decent. The ratings could be huge if they did a show on the entire projected field, because people like me would watch it. I have no interest in the Top 16 Show. I suspect they will smarten up very quickly and expand the show, and add more shows.
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Old 01-26-2017, 02:20 PM
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When does the ESPN.com Bubble Watch usually start? I know we are still in January, but I always enjoy following that each week.
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Old 01-26-2017, 02:30 PM
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2/2/16 was when it started last season based upon this thread:

http://www.udpride.com/forums/showth...420#post439420
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Old 01-26-2017, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
He's right!
I like this quote:
"I mean, if you want, why don't you show the teams that are on the bubble," Mack said. "That's more intrigue – that's all people care about. Are they getting in or are they getting out? Who cares if Kentucky is a one-seed or a two-seed? Especially when it's a month away. It's dumb."

BINGO!!
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Old 01-26-2017, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
I'm not sure what to think If someone books their trip based on this show
Not necessarily about booking a trip, but it sure doesn't hurt to have a general idea where the committee sees "you" geographically in the bracket.
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Old 01-26-2017, 04:52 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
CBS pays big money to televise the NCAA Tournament. I guarantee this show, no matter how contrived, will draw better ratings than the 12:30pm pregame show that CBS was going to televise before the Kentucky-Alabama game they will be showing at 1pm.

My guess is that CBS saw the ratings ESPN got for those CFP rankings shows and wanted to do one for basketball. NCAA complied because they want to keep CBS happy. When in doubt, follow the money.
Exactly.

If it's that stupid, don't watch it. That's the only way to thwart these kinds of things.

Kind of like pro athletes being maligned as overpaid. In the real world, based on the economics of supply and demand, they are not overpaid. And the only way to change that is not only to NOT pay the ticket prices, but don't watch the games on your TV either, since so much $$$ comes from the TV contracts.
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:59 PM
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I'm interested to see what they do with the actual selection show this year because if you recall last year they changed the format and stretched it out to two hours. It still had good ratings of course but it was met with heavy criticism by fans and media alike.
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Old 01-26-2017, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I'm interested to see what they do with the actual selection show this year because if you recall last year they changed the format and stretched it out to two hours. It still had good ratings of course but it was met with heavy criticism by fans and media alike.
Didn't someone reveal the bracket early on Twitter last year?
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Old 01-26-2017, 11:22 PM
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Yes they did
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:36 PM
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Bad losses

So why does Joey Brackets consider our loss to Nebraska a bad loss? They currently sit #78 in RPI. In the old days I thought bad losses were like 150+ or even 200+ on the RPI. Yes, I know they may very drop a bit before the year is over with their schedule, but I do not see them dropping too far based upon their top 3 strength of schedule.
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:21 AM
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Team Rankings: has us at an 8 seed, 87% likelihood of getting in the tourney.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology

...based on us going 14-4 in A10 and 23-7 overall.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...rs/projections

Real Time RPI had us losing 73-66, and we lost 73-68. The only game that they have us losing is at Rhode Island (finishing with a 23-6, 14-4 record
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html

A10 conference is 8th in RPI, according to Real Time RPI
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

USA today bracketologist has us still on the 8 line, where we were yesterday.
"Big win last night for VCU as they now have in reality, only two more chance for big wins, but both are on the road, at Dayton and at Rhode Island. This one was a must win as those other two are not going to be easy."
http://www.bracketwag.com/

So what does all of this mean?
We lost a game that we could have won, but were expected to lose.
We should win the rest of our games, with the exception of at Rhode Island which will be a challenge for sure.
The A10 is a two bid league, max. The only scenario I see three bids is if UD and VCU both finish strong and some other team comes out of nowhere to win the A10 tourney.
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
The A10 is a two bid league, max. The only scenario I see three bids is if UD and VCU both finish strong and some other team comes out of nowhere to win the A10 tourney.
URI is still alive for an at large bid, no? That would be 3 bids, besides UD and VCU.

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Old 01-28-2017, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
URI is still alive for an at large bid, no? That would be 3 bids, besides UD and VCU.
If URI makes it, it will likely come at the expense of UD or VCU. They are on the outside looking in and they would have to sweep.
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
If URI makes it, it will likely come at the expense of UD or VCU. They are on the outside looking in and they would have to sweep.
Agree to disagree...all 3 can still make it...URI does not have to sweep, they can still afford 2, maybe an outside shot at 3, more losses IMO.

They will have to finish strong though, they have had a tough start to A10 play.

I would not bet on them getting an at large, but they are at least still alive and at least have a chance.

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Old 01-29-2017, 10:30 AM
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If UD wins the rest, VCU only loses to UD, and RI wins the A10.
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Old 01-29-2017, 12:06 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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This is actually quite simple...

A) UD and VCU finish strong make the semifinals in Pittsburgh and someone comes out of nowhere to win the A-10 tourney. Three bids: Dayton,VCU and A-10 winner. And by strong i mean one A-10 loss the rest of the way at worse 2 losses.

B) UD and VCU run away, one wins in Pittsburgh. 2 bids

C) UD or VCU run away and same one wins in Pittsburgh. 1 bid

D) UD and VCU each lose 3 or more remaining league games. A-10 winner is in. 1 bid

Of course there are other scenarios but UD and VCU are barring a miracle the A-10's lone hopes for an at-large bid.

SBU,Richmond,LaSalle and Rhode Island are capable of getting hot for 3 or 4 days.

Ceiling: 3 bids
Floor: 1 bid
Likely: 2 bids. UD OR VCU plus the A-10 tournament winner.

My hope is 3. As long as Dayton is in, i'd like to see it be Richmond or SBU. Jaylen Adams and T.J Cline deserve a big stage.

I still see another huge run from this Senior Class and by all accounts we should have a close to 100% Josh back. And by huge run i aint talking 'bout Pittsburgh.

Go Flyers!
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  #100  
Old 01-29-2017, 01:09 PM
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UD90 UD90 is offline
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2008 -> present 3 bids or more every year.
2006/2007 -> 2 bids
2005 -> 1 bid (two divisions)

2012 - 4 bids
2013 - 5 bids
2014 - 6 bids

Last edited by UD90; 01-29-2017 at 01:49 PM..
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