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05-24-2023, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79
Oh absolutely, I agree. I only made my original post because of the way the Knicks waste his talent.
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It is highly unlikely Obi stays with the Knicks - His value to the Knicks right now is in trading him pre/during the draft so they can get a draft pick in this years draft. Currently the Knicks do not have any picks this year.
The good news for Obi will be the only teams that would trade a draft pick for him are ones that have an immediate and defined need he can fill. Guess we will know more by Draft day.
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05-24-2023, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
It is highly unlikely Obi stays with the Knicks - His value to the Knicks right now is in trading him pre/during the draft so they can get a draft pick in this years draft. Currently the Knicks do not have any picks this year.
The good news for Obi will be the only teams that would trade a draft pick for him are ones that have an immediate and defined need he can fill. Guess we will know more by Draft day.
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I hope you are right but all reports were that they were shopping him at the deadline and asking for too much. I am glad they value him as much as they do but they need to find a dance partner and one would think a team looking to make a playoff push would have been willing to slightly "over pay" for Obi.
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05-24-2023, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
It is highly unlikely Obi stays with the Knicks - His value to the Knicks right now is in trading him pre/during the draft so they can get a draft pick in this years draft. Currently the Knicks do not have any picks this year.
The good news for Obi will be the only teams that would trade a draft pick for him are ones that have an immediate and defined need he can fill. Guess we will know more by Draft day.
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You could be 100% right, but as an alternative thought, isn't it true that the Knicks are as good as they can possibly get with this version of their stars? Brunson + Randall will 100% not carry this team any further than they've already carried them, even with a different coach but most definitely with this coach.
Trading Obi for another player will not change the calculus. Consider:
-NYK were second to last in assist ratio -- but 4th best in TO's. What good would adding another guard do? They just make the entry pass and then stand and watch.
-They were 12th in defensive rebound % and 2nd in offensive rebound %. It's not like they need a PF to rebound.
-They were 4th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating, 7th in net rating, but only 23rd in blocked shots. So maybe a shot blocker, but, how is a shot blocker going to fit on the floor with Randall?
-They were 19th in 3PT%. Maybe a knock down shooter?? But how is that guy going to get the ball when they're last in assist ratio?
My point is, you can trot out Randall and Brunson again next year, but with or without Obi (or anyone else), the result is the result. They're held back by Randall or at a minimum the way the coach is going to use him.
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05-24-2023, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
UD and Chris Wright would have been better off as a team had Gregory NOT allowed Wright to play for the NBA scouts. We lost a lot of point/game letting Wright play on the 3-point line and do things like dribble and take outside shots instead of posting his butt on the low post and letting him muscle his man underneath. Gearing an offense around Wright's desire to get drafted destroyed Gregory.
Same with Grant. Should Holmes return and should Grant allow Holmes to shoot multiple 3s and run the 3-point line, he's asking for another disappointing season.
It's a team game. Always has been...always will be.
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05-24-2023, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
You could be 100% right, but as an alternative thought, isn't it true that the Knicks are as good as they can possibly get with this version of their stars? Brunson + Randall will 100% not carry this team any further than they've already carried them, even with a different coach but most definitely with this coach.
Trading Obi for another player will not change the calculus. Consider:
-NYK were second to last in assist ratio -- but 4th best in TO's. What good would adding another guard do? They just make the entry pass and then stand and watch.
-They were 12th in defensive rebound % and 2nd in offensive rebound %. It's not like they need a PF to rebound.
-They were 4th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating, 7th in net rating, but only 23rd in blocked shots. So maybe a shot blocker, but, how is a shot blocker going to fit on the floor with Randall?
-They were 19th in 3PT%. Maybe a knock down shooter?? But how is that guy going to get the ball when they're last in assist ratio?
My point is, you can trot out Randall and Brunson again next year, but with or without Obi (or anyone else), the result is the result. They're held back by Randall or at a minimum the way the coach is going to use him.
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I agree 100% with all that. But the Knicks front office seems married to Randal and Thibs. I would love to see both go and Obi move into the starting 4 spot - but sadly that is not likely to happen. I was born and grew up on Long Island - and was a Knicks fan before I was a Flyer fan - so to me it was great when Obi got drafted by the Knicks - and has been painful every day since.
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05-24-2023, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
I agree 100% with all that. But the Knicks front office seems married to Randal and Thibs. I would love to see both go and Obi move into the starting 4 spot - but sadly that is not likely to happen. I was born and grew up on Long Island - and was a Knicks fan before I was a Flyer fan - so to me it was great when Obi got drafted by the Knicks - and has been painful every day since.
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It seems to me that the smart basketball move is to trade Randall. For anything. Brunson is a stud that has the ability to make others better, at least hypothetically, but not with Randall lumbering around the floor in the way all the time. I'd trade him for a couple of second round picks, move Obi to the starting 4 (or package him), and bring a complimentary player to Brunson.
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05-31-2023, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
There are zero signs of him coming back. That's not to say he isn't, but there have been absolutely no indications of which way he is leaning. This is "your" wish, not necessarily his.
Also, if DaRon isn't going to be ready until he's 25, then he'll never make it. He'll already be 21 at next year's draft. NBA wants potential, and is willing to draft and train that potential. If they see enough of it in DaRon, they will tell him and he will stay in the draft.
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Well maybe not zero signs. Some people just aren't good readers.
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06-01-2023, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Well maybe not zero signs. Some people just aren't good readers.
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Might want to get a new deck of tarot cards
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06-01-2023, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Well maybe not zero signs. Some people just aren't good readers.
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https://twitter.com/DavidPJablonski/...742977/photo/1
DaRon Holmes II: "It was a hard decision. It kind of did come down to yesterday. I wasn't leaning one way."
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06-01-2023, 06:40 PM
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To be fair, here’s the entire quote. Sounds as if he WAS leaning (if just a bit) with the “my gut” reference. No matter the interpretation, it’s clear he’s a class act ….
"It was a hard decision. It kind of did come down to yesterday. I wasn't leaning one way. My gut told me to come back. I felt like I could have went somewhere in the second round, but honestly, I wanted to boost my stock and try to get to the first round. I think Dayton has what it takes for me to do that. Also I think the team has unfinished business. I want to win games."
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06-01-2023, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly
To be fair, here’s the entire quote. Sounds as if he WAS leaning (if just a bit) with the “my gut” reference. No matter the interpretation, it’s clear he’s a class act ….
"It was a hard decision. It kind of did come down to yesterday. I wasn't leaning one way. My gut told me to come back. I felt like I could have went somewhere in the second round, but honestly, I wanted to boost my stock and try to get to the first round. I think Dayton has what it takes for me to do that. Also I think the team has unfinished business. I want to win games."
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Not only that, but an online source stated over one week ago that the coaches expected him to come back. The majority of UDPriders read it correctly.
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06-02-2023, 09:47 AM
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So, it was a 50/50 decision.
Meaning, half the signs in his mind pointed one way, and half the signs in his mind pointed the other way.
I could be wrong but I believe 0.5 > zero.
And for others among us, we saw the endgame before he did.
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06-02-2023, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Not only that, but an online source stated over one week ago that the coaches expected him to come back. The majority of UDPriders read it correctly.
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My post was on 5/19. Trilly's post regarding staff confidence was on 5/22. So your timing is off.
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06-02-2023, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
So, it was a 50/50 decision.
Meaning, half the signs in his mind pointed one way, and half the signs in his mind pointed the other way.
I could be wrong but I believe 0.5 > zero.
And for others among us, we saw the endgame before he did.
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You should contact DaRon and let him know you know his future before he does. I'm sure he'll appreciate it.
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06-02-2023, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
All signs seem to be pointing more and more to Holmes coming back, packing on weight, and working on his outside shot. Otherwise he sets a very low trajectory.
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
You should contact DaRon and let him know you know his future before he does. I'm sure he'll appreciate it.
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"Know," you say?
You seem to be struggling with admitting you were just wrong. Go ahead, you're safe here. You can say it.
There's a difference between reading inexact signs pointing in a direction, and reading those probability-weighted signs within a mosaic of information, versus "knowing his future."
Proof that humans are terrible at risk-weighted and probability-weighted decision making.
The signs stacked up on one side of the ledger pretty clearly. He obviously could have ignored all that and gone pro anyway. But I never said I "know" what he's going to do because I didn't.
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06-02-2023, 11:38 AM
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I'm pleased that Holmes did not try to work out with the Knicks.
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06-02-2023, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
"Know," you say?
You seem to be struggling with admitting you were just wrong. Go ahead, you're safe here. You can say it.
There's a difference between reading inexact signs pointing in a direction, and reading those probability-weighted signs within a mosaic of information, versus "knowing his future."
Proof that humans are terrible at risk-weighted and probability-weighted decision making.
The signs stacked up on one side of the ledger pretty clearly. He obviously could have ignored all that and gone pro anyway. But I never said I "know" what he's going to do because I didn't.
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I wasn't wrong. There were no signs at the time I posted that that indicated which way he was leaning. If you were inferring it from mock drafts and your desire to have him return, that's fine, I totally get that. But it doesn't make my statement wrong. Also, I never stated he was going to stay in, so I wasn't wrong in any sense. I felt the probability was higher of staying in. It was an opinion, not a statement of fact. In either case, he's made his decision and I'm glad to have him back. Next year was likely to be a bit of a train-wreck without him or some last minute home run transfer.
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06-02-2023, 07:46 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
I wasn't wrong. There were no signs at the time I posted that that indicated which way he was leaning. If you were inferring it from mock drafts and your desire to have him return, that's fine, I totally get that. But it doesn't make my statement wrong. Also, I never stated he was going to stay in, so I wasn't wrong in any sense. I felt the probability was higher of staying in. It was an opinion, not a statement of fact. In either case, he's made his decision and I'm glad to have him back. Next year was likely to be a bit of a train-wreck without him or some last minute home run transfer.
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Got it. There were "zero" signs he would return. Except for all those signs I read. Makes sense.
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06-02-2023, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Got it. There were "zero" signs he would return. Except for all those signs I read. Makes sense.
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I’m trying to figure out how he was more convinced he wasn’t coming back if there were no signs.
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06-02-2023, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
"Know," you say?
You seem to be struggling with admitting you were just wrong. Go ahead, you're safe here. You can say it.
There's a difference between reading inexact signs pointing in a direction, and reading those probability-weighted signs within a mosaic of information, versus "knowing his future."
Proof that humans are terrible at risk-weighted and probability-weighted decision making.
The signs stacked up on one side of the ledger pretty clearly. He obviously could have ignored all that and gone pro anyway. But I never said I "know" what he's going to do because I didn't.
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Anybody who follows these things new there was a good probability he was coming back when all the mocks had him late second round or worse. It really wasn’t rocket science, but some just didn’t get it.
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06-02-2023, 09:21 PM
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DaRon is returning!
and yet, we still have something we can
argue about..... sigh
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06-03-2023, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Anybody who follows these things new there was a good probability he was coming back when all the mocks had him late second round or worse. It really wasn’t rocket science, but some just didn’t get it.
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Exactly. It didn't require brilliance. The signs were that he was going late second round. And late second round = more likely coming back since he's only a rising junior.
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06-03-2023, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
I’m trying to figure out how he was more convinced he wasn’t coming back if there were no signs.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Well, for starters, I don't put a lot of stock in mock drafts by people who aren't actually part of the process. Like anything else, they are opinions of people, most of which probably aren't even all that familiar with DaRon. I felt like he was underrated in the mocks, and that if he would be in the top 40, there was a greater likelihood of him leaving than returning, especially given the changes that have happened with early 2nd rounders lately in getting guaranteed contracts, etc. It was my opinion that if he rated in the top 40 and could get a guarantee, he would leave and then start with the training of an NBA team once the draft happened. It's not rocket science. But all that was based on my opinion, not on any signs that he was leaning one way or another. Not a single one of you can point to any signal that DaRon gave that he was leaning one way or another, and his direct quote indicates it was a last minute decision. Even if he was starting to give hints to the coaching staff when Trilly posted his tweet, that was after my post on the 19th. It's incredible the amount of bad faith some of you like to argue with.
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06-03-2023, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Exactly. It didn't require brilliance. The signs were that he was going late second round. And late second round = more likely coming back since he's only a rising junior.
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You mean the things you interpreted from a bunch of mock drafts that will likely be of dubious value outside the top 15-20 players. My statement applied to DaRon. He gave no signs he was leaning one way or another, and at the time I posted that, he appeared to be fully committed to exploring his options. His direct statement was that it was a last minute decision. But you can't point to a single thing he did that indicated he was leaning one way or another. All you can point to is a bunch of mock drafts that aligned with your desire of what he should do.
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06-05-2023, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
Well, for starters, I don't put a lot of stock in mock drafts by people who aren't actually part of the process. Like anything else, they are opinions of people, most of which probably aren't even all that familiar with DaRon. I felt like he was underrated in the mocks, and that if he would be in the top 40, there was a greater likelihood of him leaving than returning, especially given the changes that have happened with early 2nd rounders lately in getting guaranteed contracts, etc. It was my opinion that if he rated in the top 40 and could get a guarantee, he would leave and then start with the training of an NBA team once the draft happened. It's not rocket science. But all that was based on my opinion, not on any signs that he was leaning one way or another. Not a single one of you can point to any signal that DaRon gave that he was leaning one way or another, and his direct quote indicates it was a last minute decision. Even if he was starting to give hints to the coaching staff when Trilly posted his tweet, that was after my post on the 19th. It's incredible the amount of bad faith some of you like to argue with.
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
You mean the things you interpreted from a bunch of mock drafts that will likely be of dubious value outside the top 15-20 players. My statement applied to DaRon. He gave no signs he was leaning one way or another, and at the time I posted that, he appeared to be fully committed to exploring his options. His direct statement was that it was a last minute decision. But you can't point to a single thing he did that indicated he was leaning one way or another. All you can point to is a bunch of mock drafts that aligned with your desire of what he should do.
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Plus the fact that he was unimpressive in all the games, got pushed around, barely touched the ball, and didn't make an impact. Which pointed to the fact that he needed an extra year of seasoning.
Which is why the writers barely bothered to mention him.
Which is why the mock drafts had him unimpressively rated.
Which sets him on a lower career trajectory that's REALLY hard to re-accelerate once set in motion. (Unless you think there's no politics and it's 100% based on performance. What color is the sky in your world? Obi says hi.)
Which is why there were so many signs he would, on a weighted average basis, benefit from one additional year of college.
Benefit <> will do so. So there were no guarantees here. But the smart thing to do, AFTER all the time had elapsed to make a decision and AFTER all the facts had been weighed, was add a year. You don't make that decision until the end, which is why he said he didn't make that decision until the end.
I guess that's how "bad faith" decision making works for some people.
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06-05-2023, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Plus the fact that he was unimpressive in all the games, got pushed around, barely touched the ball, and didn't make an impact. Which pointed to the fact that he needed an extra year of seasoning.
Which is why the writers barely bothered to mention him.
Which is why the mock drafts had him unimpressively rated.
Which sets him on a lower career trajectory that's REALLY hard to re-accelerate once set in motion. (Unless you think there's no politics and it's 100% based on performance. What color is the sky in your world? Obi says hi.)
Which is why there were so many signs he would, on a weighted average basis, benefit from one additional year of college.
Benefit <> will do so. So there were no guarantees here. But the smart thing to do, AFTER all the time had elapsed to make a decision and AFTER all the facts had been weighed, was add a year. You don't make that decision until the end, which is why he said he didn't make that decision until the end.
I guess that's how "bad faith" decision making works for some people.
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I'll quote my original text here.
"There are zero signs of him coming back. That's not to say he isn't, but there have been absolutely no indications of which way he is leaning. This is "your" wish, not necessarily his."
It clearly states that it is based on indications as to which way he was leaning. Your entire argument is based on choosing a portion of my statement and not the entirety. What I said was absolutely true. There were no indications from him. The bad faith argument is you guys ignoring the entire context of what said.
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06-05-2023, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Holmes needs 15 more pounds of muscle, at which time he's an early 2nd round pick / late 1st round pick. It's probably clear to teams that he's going to get pushed around by the grown men in the NBA (even D League).
Draft him now, and bank him for 2-3 years in the D League, possibly taking up a slot for someone who's more NBA ready? Or draft him next year when he's only 1-2 years away?
All signs seem to be pointing more and more to Holmes coming back, packing on weight, and working on his outside shot. Otherwise he sets a very low trajectory.
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Were you really just hoping I would forget my original quote??
I said "all signs," meaning, the world around us.
You took misread that as "what HE is PERSONALLY thinking". Which makes no sense, because nowhere did I reference what was happening in his mind. Because the inside of his brain is not a "sign" that can be read.
And yet, you still can't admit how wrong you were.
Last edited by Gazoo; 06-05-2023 at 01:21 PM..
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06-05-2023, 02:22 PM
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has anyone heard about this forward that was
apparently visiting the campus? do we have a name
or anything new possibly, curious/wondering
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06-06-2023, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Were you really just hoping I would forget my original quote??
I said "all signs," meaning, the world around us.
You took misread that as "what HE is PERSONALLY thinking". Which makes no sense, because nowhere did I reference what was happening in his mind. Because the inside of his brain is not a "sign" that can be read.
And yet, you still can't admit how wrong you were.
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I honestly haven't looked at the original quote. And hey, if I misinterpreted what you said and answered a different question, there were really two options at that point. 1. Point out that's not what you were saying, I acknowledge my misinterpretation, and we move on or 2. You act like a a**hole for days. You chose option 2, and chose poorly. I would be happy to acknowledge a misinterpretation of someone's post. I've done it before. But if you're going to be a jerk, then I really don't care at this point what you think. Feel free to revel in your childish behavior.
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06-06-2023, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
I honestly haven't looked at the original quote. And hey, if I misinterpreted what you said and answered a different question, there were really two options at that point. 1. Point out that's not what you were saying, I acknowledge my misinterpretation, and we move on or 2. You act like a a**hole for days. You chose option 2, and chose poorly. I would be happy to acknowledge a misinterpretation of someone's post. I've done it before. But if you're going to be a jerk, then I really don't care at this point what you think. Feel free to revel in your childish behavior.
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Yeah, I should have pointed that out. Like, in my first response to your comment.
Oh look. . .
Originally Posted by Gazoo
If by "signs" you mean words or tweets from DaRon, agreed. You're right and I didn't mean to imply that.
I'm talking about "signs" as what the marketplace is telling us.
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How much more literally and directly can you possibly be wrong before you just say, "yeah I was wrong."
I came right out and said "you're right, I didn't mean to imply that"!!!
Then I immediately clarified what I was talking about, NOT the inside of his mind, but instead I was talking about what the marketplace is telling us.
FFS, are you special needs? I mean that seriously, PM me, I don't mean to punch down.
Last edited by Gazoo; 06-06-2023 at 02:27 PM..
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