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  #1  
Old 11-27-2016, 11:45 AM
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Selection Sunday

I think Minnesota will be the #1 seed. They beat Nebraska and Wisconsin in the last week. Add Texas to those for the top 4. Gets more complex after that. Lol

I think our odds to got to a Big location are pretty high. My guess is Michgan or Michgan St. We would be the projected 2nd best team in those cases. We could also go to Creighton or Western Kentucky with a Penn State or Ohio State. Still projected 2nd best team based on rpi, but that is a tougher draw. So I like MI or Michigan State. I think Horsmons first NCAA win at UD was at Michgan State in an upset. For sentimental reasons, we could go back to MSU and pull an upset again to reach our first Sweet 16. I like that storyline, so I'm pulling for MSU.

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Old 11-27-2016, 12:01 PM
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My storyline is will Miami (Ohio) get into the field with an FiggieRPI/bonuses of 40 but only 2 top 50 wins, and an 89 SOS.

What about the MVC? Wichita State gets the autobid, but will Missouri State and/or Northern Iowa get in with mid-40 RPIs, but 4 and 5 top 50 wins, respectively.

USC is RPI 48, but 5 top 50 wins and a 27 SOS.

Will they go all the way down to RPI 56 Illinois, 3 top 50 wins and a 38 SOS?

Arkansas State at RPI 55, with 25 wins, but 1 top 50 win and a 119 SOS. (Sound familiar?)

I'm not doing a bracket this year. Too much work, and not enough time. Sorry.

As for Dayton, it's interesting. We have 4 Ohio teams in, with a 5th having a chance. Dayton, aOSU, Cincinnati, Cleveland State are in. Miami Ohio are on the bubble. None of us are close to hosting. Kentucky dropped below top 16, and Western Kentucky will probably get snubbed from hosting.

Closest spots would be Michigan and Michigan State. Next would be Missouri, then Kansas and North Carolina? Maybe they'll ship us to BYU? What about Creighton? That could happen.
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Old 11-27-2016, 12:09 PM
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I'm just starting to look at other bracket guesses. First one I found has Mich State a 14 seed playing Miami, OH and Dayton play Cincy. I like this pairing a lot although 3 Ohio teams in the same location for the first weekend does seem out of the ordinary??? But I like it.
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Old 11-27-2016, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
I'm just starting to look at other bracket guesses. First one I found has Mich State a 14 seed playing Miami, OH and Dayton play Cincy. I like this pairing a lot although 3 Ohio teams in the same location for the first weekend does seem out of the ordinary??? But I like it.
Remind me, when is the selection show?
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Old 11-27-2016, 01:22 PM
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9pm (ESPNU I think)
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Old 11-27-2016, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
9pm (ESPNU I think)
This is correct. I do not know if the team watching party is public or not.

Also, Illinois will be interesting. I heard Michigan State got in last year at #54. I have not looked up their Top 50 wins, etc to compare to ILL this year. Also I have not verified their rpi. I think the committee updates the rpi as late as they can on selection Sunday, but I don't know if they publish that last run. So I can't verify MSU at #54 on selection Sunday??? It might have been the week before with 2 matches left to play.
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Old 11-27-2016, 02:22 PM
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I thought a couple years ago the selection committee added they would look at the AVCA poll if they thought it would help make a decision between two teams. That is incorrect. What they added a couple years ago is they now also use Pablo rankings in their criteria.

A lot of fans think Pablo is the most accurate ranking. I know it also factors in sets won or lost. It might also factor in set scores - not 100% sure on that tho.

Dayton's current Pablo ranking is 53. That certainly brings things down to earth a little. I think it's also a good picture of a young team that is still trying to find a consistantly high level of play. We have it. We've all seen it at times this year. Hopefully it shows up on the court again starting this week.
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Old 11-27-2016, 05:27 PM
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In other news, Nebraska asst coach Kelly takes Louisville job. She was asst for 1yr there under Kordes before going back to Neb where she played.
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Old 11-27-2016, 09:06 PM
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No Dayton yet...Soon? Pairings now.
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Old 11-27-2016, 09:08 PM
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Dayton vs Pitt Fri at 5
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Old 11-27-2016, 09:13 PM
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Wisconsin a no 3 seed.
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Old 11-27-2016, 09:29 PM
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Quick question for the volleyball experts on here. Since Penn St was the overall #16 seed would that make UD the theoretical #17 seed and basically one spot away from hosting? I wasn't sure if there was an overall seeding list for all the teams in the volleyball tournament like they do for men's basketball or if they just get to 16 and then try to do it geographically.
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Old 11-27-2016, 11:05 PM
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I'll take that question.

Every tournament seeding beyond #16 is more closely tied to geography than it is skill level. Dayton would not be the next team to host and I don't think the NCAA committee would consider them the 17th based team.
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Old 11-27-2016, 11:09 PM
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While Dayton has a lot of wins and almost no loses, I think the lack of top 25 and top 50 wins kept Dayton out of the conversation of hosting.

I am really surprised Penn State is hosting and we are going back again. Should Dayton just book the hotel for next year too???
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Old 11-27-2016, 11:43 PM
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#16 seed pod is as good as you can get. But, we all know PSUs seed is really irrelevant. Rose coaches the season to be ready for the NCAAs so they are good enough to reach the Final-4. But, they probably have some more weaknesses this year. Still, PSU at home is almost unbeatable out-of-conference.

Win the first mach, worry about the next one later.
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Old 11-28-2016, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by udisit19 View Post
While Dayton has a lot of wins and almost no loses, I think the lack of top 25 and top 50 wins kept Dayton out of the conversation of hosting.

I am really surprised Penn State is hosting and we are going back again. Should Dayton just book the hotel for next year too???
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Oh look we got home matches for the first weekend. How nice of the NCAA.

I too cannot believe we are going back to PSU for the 3rd year in a row. I'm not sure that has ever happened. I know Albany got sent to PSU a lot, but I don't think it was 3 years in a row.

Chris is correct in Russ Rose is a master at getting his team to play their best starting this week. However they are "down" this year, so it's a good year to pull an upset. The other positive is the players and coaching staff are very familiar with the venue. I do feel bad for the juniors. They have never played an NCAA match anywhere else and I'm expecting we will host next year, which will be great, but this means they missed out on going to some other great volleyball gyms. The teams reaction on the video posted on daytonflyers.com says it all.

Just one question, where do I buy my " Third times a charm" Flyer volleyball t-shirt?
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Old 11-28-2016, 09:09 AM
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Will our games be Televised? If so, Where? Thx.
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Old 11-28-2016, 09:42 AM
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Becky,

Thanks for telling me about the reaction video on daytonflyers.com It really does say it all. The Flyers, like everyone else, clearly thought they were not going to Penn State for a 3rd time in a row. Coach Horsmon has a tough task. He needs to get the team past the frustrating bracket and focused on the match against Pittsburgh.

It actually is a fairly favorable bracket like Chris mentioned. Playing at the number 16 team (in the mind of the committee) is not too bad. Pablo rankings actually have Penn State sitting right at 16 as of last week. Playing in the Kansas State pod of 4 teams would have been the real prize since they are considered 45 in the Pablo rankings.

Dayton gets a winnable match against Pitt which has only a couple of impressive wins on the season against UNC and Michigan. Dayton's win against Xavier at home is pretty comparable to the home win Pitt got against Michigan. However, Pitt's win against UNC ranked #8 at the time is clearly better than anything Dayton has on their resume. Pitt has a bad loss against Wake Forest, which is the equivalent of Dayton losing at GW this year. So Pitt has a much better win, but also has an awful loss. I think the true test here is that the coaching staff needs to convince the Flyers that beating Pitt would be a big time win. Pitt hasn't made the NCAA tourney since 2004 so I think they have more to prove. I think Dayton's record of 30-1 is still a big target and I think Pitt was more excited to be sent to Penn State. Let's hope the experience that this team has in playing "The Game Before Penn State" has prepared them.

If they beat Pitt and get another shot at Penn State it will still be a monumental task to beat PSU. Penn State has only lost two home matches all year. To #8 UNC and to #1 Nebraska. And Penn State has fared very well against similar opponents. Penn State swept Northwestern when it took Dayton 5 sets to get a win, and Penn State also destroyed Rhode Island 25-6 in their first set. If there is any silver lining it is that Penn State has struggled a lot this year. They have a loss @Colorado, a loss @Michigan, a loss @ Ohio State, and they even played a close 4 set match at Maryland.

Here is a quote about Penn State from The offense is good, but not incredibly efficient. They block well, but are not dominating, and the back line is solid, but sporadic. They are at their best when their service game is on.

“If we don’t serve well, we’re in trouble against the good teams,” Rose said. “We’re not a great blocking team and we’re not a great defensive team. If you serve tough, it limits what the other team can do and it kind of hides your own weaknesses at certain skills.”

The loss to Colorado is the most encouraging since Colorado has a pablo ranking similar to SLU's. It is not out of the question that Dayton could pull a big upset over Penn State. Dayton has seen some good serving from Rygelski 3 times this year. If good serving is a strength for PSU, then Dayton should be prepared. Dayton's hitting and blocking numbers also look better than last year. Bruns and Jane improved their block, Peterson has better blocking numbers than Jill and Kendall has better blocking than Angel. The Flyers need a win before that, but it's not a terrible draw. Just frustrating that Dayton could play the same team three years in the row and that the committee seems to think this is acceptable. Just get a win against a strong ACC opponent and Dayton gets a 2nd rematch.

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Old 11-28-2016, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by NovaFlyer View Post
Will our games be Televised? If so, Where? Thx.
All games will be available on Watch ESPN according to the info on the bracket.
ESPN3 for the first round.
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Old 11-28-2016, 11:35 AM
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Udisit-

I'm right there with you. I'm not unhappy with our draw, just surprised. We can't overlook Pitt. Their conference is better than ours and they have beaten a handful of NCAA teams including #8 NC. We have beaten only Miami, OH in the tournament.

Set that aside and of the 3 years, this is the weakest PSU team and our best UD team in my opinion. We don't have Alaina, but I agree we are stronger at all the other positions and as a unit we are better. In 2014 it was a 0-3 loss but we played solid and didn't get blown out any set. In 2015 it was 3-1 and we won the 2nd set holding PSU to only 13 points. If we get by Pitt, we have a shot for the upset. Most vball "experts" don't think PSU should have been seeded.

Finally, teams that got the worst shaft this year, San Diego, WKY, KY, Creighton and #2 seed Minnesota. How can you be a 2 seed and get HI or USC in the 2nd round? USC is way down this year, but HI is ranked. I expect MN to survive, but this should not happen. It's not fair to either MN or HI.

I know if we beat Pitt and upset PSU, Dayton will pick up a lot of nationwide fans. People are mad PSU is seeded and hosting.

Finally, the years my niece played at UD I prayed we would be sent to PSU because one of her high school teammates played for PSU and they are still good friends and would have liked to compete against each other. They were both MBs. Never happened. Now we have been sent there 3 years in a row, but I would place big money on the fact that we will not be at PSU next year. Not because it would be 4 in a row, or because I think we will be hosting next year, but rather because Laura Broerman is a Jr DS at PSU. Next year her younger sister Emily will be a freshman L/DS for Dayton. It would be great for the Broerman clan to have UD and PSU in the same gym, so of course it won't happen. Lol.

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Old 11-28-2016, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
I too cannot believe we are going back to PSU for the 3rd year in a row. I'm not sure that has ever happened. I know Albany got sent to PSU a lot, but I don't think it was 3 years in a row.
I only have 2011 through 2015 tournament results, and there are 3 second round matchups that will be triplicated this year.

Dayton at Penn State for 3 straight years.
Florida State at Florida played in 2013 and 2015.
Texas A&M at Texas played in 2012 and 2013, so they skipped 2 years.

This is the list of 1st or 2nd round games that have duplicated since the 2011 tournament:
Code:

      awayteam       |     hometeam     | num_games | first_year | last_year 
---------------------+------------------+-----------+------------+-----------
 Wichita State (331) | Kansas (131)     |         2 |       2012 |      2013
 Texas State (286)   | Texas (283)      |         2 |       2011 |      2013
 Texas A&M (284)     | Texas (283)      |         2 |       2012 |      2013
 Marquette (156)     | Illinois (120)   |         2 |       2011 |      2013
 Long Island (146)   | UCLA (300)       |         2 |       2012 |      2014
 Dayton (66)         | Penn State (219) |         2 |       2014 |      2015
 Ohio State (210)    | Kentucky (135)   |         2 |       2012 |      2014
 Hawaii (109)        | Washington (323) |         2 |       2012 |      2014
 Belmont (23)        | Louisville (149) |         2 |       2012 |      2015
 Florida State (91)  | Florida (88)     |         2 |       2013 |      2015
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  #22  
Old 11-28-2016, 12:38 PM
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It was actually Albany getting sent to Stanford. It was 2 of 3 years with a year off in the middle.

I would also guess the selection committee might not even know they did this. I'm not sure they look at past brackets to check. It's odd for sure and maybe the only time ever.
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Old 11-28-2016, 12:47 PM
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According to mapquest it's 408 miles to University Park. I think the Guideline is 400 miles. That probably means the team has to go by bus versus flying in. I don't know for certain on this, but I know they try to regionally place teams within 400 miles to save money. 6.5 hours on a bus. Kind of crappy. At least they are leaving on Wednesday after practice. Girls can get their studying out of the way and sleep. Then have a day on the ground before game day.
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Old 11-28-2016, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
According to mapquest it's 408 miles to University Park. I think the Guideline is 400 miles. That probably means the team has to go by bus versus flying in. I don't know for certain on this, but I know they try to regionally place teams within 400 miles to save money. 6.5 hours on a bus. Kind of crappy. At least they are leaving on Wednesday after practice. Girls can get their studying out of the way and sleep. Then have a day on the ground before game day.
The NCAA Travel Site shows a distance of 396.0 miles.
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Old 11-28-2016, 01:50 PM
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Gym to gym I guess. Point is it's as far as anyone has to travel by bus if the cut off is 400+ = flying. Glad they are leaving on Wednesday.
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Old 11-28-2016, 06:27 PM
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The matches are winnable. If the team passes well we have a very good offense because everyone can hit. If we can set the middles as always it will free up some better opportunities for the outside hitters

I plan on having something before Friday
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