NCAA Selection Sunday

BeckysTXA · #1 11-25-2019, 08:41 AM

Northern KY winning the Horizon conference might keep both Wright St and VCU out.

NCAA rpi not updated yet after the weekend. Figgiestat has the following teams on the bubble:

S Carolina
S Dakota
ILL
CAL
Green Bay
Wright St
VCU
Milwaukee

VCU probably needs to move up 1-2 spots to get in. Ironically Dayton’s scheduling might help them do that. Teams still playing and probably winning are FL, TXAM, MO, MI, Louisville and Cincinnati.

tOSU played both UD and VCU, but they are probably going 1-1 to finish - a wash.

Figgie123 · #2 11-26-2019, 10:50 AM

Selection Sunday will be interesting. There are 4, that's right, 4, Horizon League teams currently in the top 50 in RPI. They pulled off an RPI coup this year, but will they get the benefit. The standard, "setup a good OOC and beat those teams, so you will all have Top50 RPIs and have multi-top50 RPI wins."

Wright State - 5-3 Top 50 - Notre Dame, and 4 Horizon teams
Green Bay - 3-7 Top 50 - 3 Horizon Teams
Milwaukee - 5-3 Top 50 - 5 Horizon Teams

Ridiculous.

BeckysTXA · #3 11-26-2019, 12:27 PM

I saw Monday after the ncaa rpi was updated that Wright State is at 44. I would bet they are in.

No KY pulled the upsets and won the Horizon Tourney.

Don’t know if they give bids to Green Bay or Milwaukee.

VCU at 49 - I do hope they make it, but squarely on the bubble and probably not there today, but matches this week could help them.

BeckysTXA · #4 11-26-2019, 01:52 PM

Here are my preliminary 16 seeded teams with a couple noted flips if they don’t win-out. I did 4 groups, so these are not 1-16 seeds in order. I’ve also seen the committee group by region and side of bracket to limit travel the second weekend. So once the three matches I think might impact, especially the top 4, I will adjust and publish a complete bracket.

Top 4 - Baylor, Wisc, TX, KY
5-8 - Stanford, Pitt, NE, WA
9-12 - FL, MN, HI, Marquette
13-16 - TXAM, Rice, BYU, Penn St

If Penn State beats Wisc or Iowa State beats TX, that team will drop and Stanford will be a Top 4.

If Louisville beats Pitt, Florida and Pitt will change positions.

EAST - Pitt, Penn St
South EAST - KY, FL
TX- Baylor, TX, TXAM, Rice
Midwest - Wisc, NE, MN, Marquette
WEST - Stanford, WA, HI, BYU

I think we get sent to a non-Marquette Midwest team. I don’t see us going East or Southeast. Too few hosting teams and too many other regional teams. No Sheffield recruits left on the team, so Wisconsin looks good to me for obvious reasons. There will be a big crowd in Madison and Minneapolis. There will be a Huge crowd in Lincoln. Weather is awful at all three, but short travel.

Rice in Houston would be nice, right after Hawaii.

BeckysTXA · #5 11-26-2019, 04:56 PM

Ok...just finished my first draft of the bracket and surprise-surprise...I have us going to Pittsburgh playing Michigan in round one. I actually like this. We are very familiar with MI and Pitt. Technically we beat both of them this year. We’ve played Pitt for real the last three years and we have played MI this past year plus the last two years in the spring.

BeckysTXA · #6 11-30-2019, 06:57 AM

I will be working on my final version early Sunday afternoon. This will be my third year putting a bracket together. So far I’ve been terrible at it. The first year I had no clue. Last year I “think” I learned I was leaning on rpi too much. Although one year is not a trend, it appeared the Selection Committee leaned more on regional match ups. It appeared after the seeded 16 hosts were set, and maybe the next 4-6 teams that just missed being seeded, it appeared the Committee didn’t care if they matched those seeded teams against a 180 rpi team or a 44 rpi team. Whoever was closer geographically was matched up. I guess if you’re a seeded 16 team, they expect you to beat either of those match ups easily, so it shouldn’t matter. We will see if that’s really a fact? I do know some East teams from small conferences will travel - too many to fit into the probable 4-5 hosting sites in the East this year. I do not have airline ticket prices, and the committee will have that. They probably have a contract with some airline.

So this year I’m working under that assumption...that regional travel trumps rpi after the seeded 16.

The second thing I think I learned last year was to place teams in pods for the second weekend. Adjust the top 16 seeding to set up regional sweet 16 and elite 8 match ups. Again, one year doesn’t make a trend, so we will see. On my first draft (and this will change because Penn State just beat WI) I’m looking at Baylor, Texas, Wisconsin and Kentucky as the Top 4 - the two TX would be on the same side of the bracket leaving WI and KY on the other side to set up short travel the second weekend. I think Stanford moves up into a top 4. I have to research if KY or WI falls out. I’m glad PSU beat WI, but it messed up my first draft bracket big time.

Right now I think it comes down to VCU or Milwaukee as the final team in, but any upset in the remaining conference tournaments could eliminate that spot. VCU went 9-1 in their last 10. That’s will help them.

I don’t know if figgie is putting out a bracket this year? Maybe this can be the “Win figgie’s Vespa Challenge II”. Of course you don’t actually win the Vespa. You winthe right to say you won his Vespa and that is priceless.

BeckysTXA · #7 11-30-2019, 05:51 PM

St Johns could really mess up my bracket. They knocked off Creighton yesterday and are up 2-0 in the Finals against Marquette. I have Marquette as a 15 seed.
Marquette is up 13-9 in 3rd.

I don’t have VCU in. Their rpi is around 48, but are 1-3 in Top 50 matches. The one being UD. Washington St is 3-5 with an rpi of 55. I also think Milwaukee is ahead of VCU, but that one is close.

BeckysTXA · #8 11-30-2019, 06:31 PM

St. John’s up 20-16 in 4th. Looks like my bracket work is not done...and it was looking so good.

3 teams from the Big East might be dancing. WKY would move into my 16th seed if St. John’s upsets Marquette.

BeckysTXA · #9 11-30-2019, 06:40 PM

St. John’s upsets two ranked teams to go dancing. One more Eastern team I need to figure out where they go... lol

BeckysTXA · #10 12-01-2019, 07:55 AM

Ill St takes down UNI to win the MVC - in a sweep. We beat ILL St this year. That victory moved UDs rpi from 45 to 42.

This and the St Johns upset knocked out Cal and ILL from my bracket. ILL was rpi 41 yesterday. This morning they are 49. Cal stayed at 48...but now no room in the inn with two unexpected auto bids.

The last team in on my bracket...57 Washington St. they just bear rpi 8 Washington for the second time this year. That is not calculating in their rpi, so it will go up. But they get in over ILL and Cal based on their Top 25 record (3-2) and Top 50 record (5-5). It’s just better and not a hard call.

I had VCU as the third just-missed team. VCU (and SLU) have got to schedule better. VCU had no shot at earning the double bonus when 50%+ of your OOC matches are against Top 75 teams. They were 5 of 14. You’ve got to schedule at least 10 of 14 because some of those will have disappointing seasons. They could have been an at-large team. They controlled what kept them out.

BeckysTXA · #11 12-01-2019, 10:47 AM

RPIs are figstat from Sunday morning.

1. Baylor, 43 SC, 44, Wright St, 311 AL St (I’m not sure any 300 team has ever made the Dance?)

2. Texas, 33 OK, 59 Sanford, 140 SEMO

3. Stanford, 37 Cal Poly, 76 Princeton, 194 Howard

4. Pittsburg, 35 Towson, 53 American, 189 Sacred Heart (One of the easiest pods because there are only 2 teams in the NE hosting and a ton of AQs in the area. So Pitt gets the home court advantage and they also are hosting the Championship this year.)

5. Wisconsin, 32 Norte Dame, 44 Iowa St, 81 Ball St

6. KY, 21 Purdue, 25 Louisville, 46 NKY (One of the toughest pods due to Big 10 can’t play Big 10 in first two rounds and geography. Any of the Top 3 could advance.)

7. Florida, 24 UCF, 36 FL St, 77 Winthrop (FL helped our rpi move from 45 to 42 this weekend.)

8. Nebraska, 19 Creighton, 42 Dayton, 78 ILL St. (Creighton lost to 60 St Johns. Love going against the Big East. Creighton Coach has been named NCOY 3 times. We can win this first round match. Team will love playing in front of 13,000 fans who know the sport and will rally behind Dayton if we are playing well against Creighton.)

9. Penn St, 20 MO, 113 Fairfield, 152 Albany (The second East NE pod for the same reasons listed under Pitt. But PSU will have to beat a Top 20 rpi team to advance.)

10. Washington, 23 Colorado St, 42 Denver, 73 No CO (Another easy pod because of geography and PAC 12 can’t play PAC 12 in rounds 1 & 2.)

11. Hawaii, 26 San Diego, 28 USC, 34 USCB (One of the tougher pods because of travel, HI always gets a PAC 12 the first rounds. At least this year they host and others travel. Any of these 4 teams can win this.)

12. Minnesota, 22 Cincinnati, 38 So Dakota, 40 UNI (Cincinnati could win this and advance.)

13. Marquette, 16 WKY, 39 MI, 45 Green Bay (Marquette’s rpi dropped, but held up to be seeded after the St Johns loss. I would have dropped them lower, but this is where they landed on the bracket with geography considerations. To off-set that they get WKY who just missed hosting and a MI team that has improved since we beat them early in the season. 3 teams could win this pod.)

14. BYU, 18 Utah, 58 New Mexico St, 60 St Johns. (BYU jumped WKY to host based on Top 25 and 50 results.)

15. TXAM, 20 SFA, 31 Georgia, 57 Washington St (I think TXAM should be a little hire, but this is the spot left in the bracket. Washington St’s rpi wasn’t updated due to late west coast win over Washington last night, but it will still be around 50. Tough draw for TXAM.)

16. Rice, 27 UCLA, 30 TX St, 68 Kenesaw (Another tough pod. UCLA could advance.)

3 teams have to travel more than half way across the US - 60 St Johns, 76 Princeton and 194 Howard.

We will see if I learned anything...

BeckysTXA · #12 12-01-2019, 10:59 AM

Listed in an article on NCAA.com, the criteria for selection of at-large bids. However they list 3 primary considerations and 3 secondary considerations, but duplicate player availability in both categories.

I think the one missing is results against Top 25 and Top 50 teams??? Figgie might know?

1. Win-Loss
2. Strength of Schedule
3. Availability of Student-Athletes

4. Performance last 10 matches
5. Availability of Student-Athletes
6. Location/Geography

Figgie123 · #13 12-01-2019, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA

Listed in an article on NCAA.com, the criteria for selection of at-large bids. However they list 3 primary considerations and 3 secondary considerations, but duplicate player availability in both categories.

I think the one missing is results against Top 25 and Top 50 teams??? Figgie might know?

1. Win-Loss
2. Strength of Schedule
3. Availability of Student-Athletes

4. Performance last 10 matches
5. Availability of Student-Athletes
6. Location/Geography

Let's be realistic. The criteria for selection of ANY NCAA TOURNAMENT at-large bid is the "eye-test". What do this year's selection committee members like? Last year or two years ago, they took normal single-bid league regular season champs that lost in the conference tournament, and did not have a top 50 win, but were top 50 RPI. Some years they will go down to mid-to-late 50 RPI because of 4 top-50 wins.

As I posted above, how will they handle the Horizon who took it a bit easy in non-conference, won lots of games, and then beat each other up to get multiple top-50 wins. Will they reward that or not? NKY is in. Wright State, Green Bay and Milwaukee are biting their fingernails.

And Washington State moved upto 49.

BeckysTXA · #14 12-01-2019, 11:31 AM

Well I did find this year’s championship manual...and true to form, they have two sections listing the criteria, the availability of SAs is listed twice on one list, but other things are not on other lists, and of course they would never list “eye-test” (to subjective) but you are right...it’s probably at the top of the triple secret criteria list. This working guideline will clearly help the committee justify selecting anyone they want. LOL

Lots of other things listed, include:

1. Regional advisory committees rankings/input. Listed twice in manual.
2. Non- conference game record and non-con rpi
3. Conference record and rpi
4. Road record
5. Record against Top 50, 51-100, 101-200, 200+ (nothing listed against Top 25)
6. Record against other team being considered
7. Head-to-Head - listed twice
8. Significant wins and losses
9. Results against common opponents
10. Results against teams already receiving at-large bid
11. Site of match - listed twice in manual

keats '91 · #15 12-01-2019, 11:33 AM

Thanks Becky, good information.
Totally obvious, but hoping for either Pitt or Kentucky as location. If placed there, count me in for a road trip. Otherwise, it is going to be tough getting there...
#Selfish
##LetsGoFlyers

BeckysTXA · #16 12-01-2019, 08:06 PM

Top 4 seeds are Baylor, Stanford, Texas and Wisconsin. Order will be announced at 8:30. People already complaining about WI - too many loses (6). So much for that criteria on like every list you can find.

Figgie123 · #17 12-01-2019, 08:41 PM

UD plays Marquette at Purdue. Wright State is the fourth team in the pod.

Figgie123 · #18 12-01-2019, 08:45 PM

VCU plays Cincinnati in Pittsburgh with Howard finishing the pod.

BeckysTXA · #19 12-01-2019, 09:17 PM

VCU and ILL top Green Bay and So Dakota to get in. I really feel for So Dakota. They went 27-2.

All that aside...Christmas came early for the Flyers. We got sent to the 16th seed Purdue. The 16th seed is as good as it gets. Short trip is nice. And playing Marquette in round 1, who I watched get beat in 4 sets by St. John’s yesterday, is a really great match up for an rpi in the 40’s team.

I figured we would be headed to the Midwest and a Big 10 location, but I thought it would be a Top 8 host.

Don’t look now, but the Sweet 16 goal is back in play for this year. Wow!

BeckysTXA · #20 12-01-2019, 09:18 PM

Originally Posted by Figgie123

VCU plays Cincinnati in Pittsburgh with Howard finishing the pod.

VCU’s block against the nations top hitter in Thompson will be awesome to watch.

Columbia Blue · #21 12-01-2019, 10:09 PM

Marquette is beatable. Maybe Wright State springs the upset on Purdue. Fun story lines. Visions of towering Flyers setting and spiking are dancing in my head.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cvol/ncaa-d1/ratings

Chris R · #22 12-01-2019, 10:33 PM

WSU can definitely beat Purdue.

VCU got in and most of us thought they would be left out. Had UD lost to VCU in the A10 finals, is the consensus we would have been left out based on what the bracket ended up being? Keep in mind our RPI/resume' would be slightly worse w/the VCU loss. Dont think we would have made it. Every loss we had was a Top-50-ish loss, but we only would have had one good win all year (Michigan).

Figgie123 · #23 12-01-2019, 11:13 PM

Originally Posted by Chris R

VCU got in and most of us thought they would be left out. Had UD lost to VCU in the A10 finals, is the consensus we would have been left out based on what the bracket ended up being? Keep in mind our RPI/resume' would be slightly worse w/the VCU loss. Dont think we would have made it. Every loss we had was a Top-50-ish loss, but we only would have had one good win all year (Michigan).

If VCU had beat Dayton, VCU would be 38RPI, and Dayton 49RPI. Would they have taken South Dakota, Green Bay, or Dayton, or even Coastal Carolina or Cal Poly? Green Bay could have taken our spot, but they could have taken VCU's spot in the current bracket, so Dayton might have gotten in too.

BeckysTXA · #24 12-02-2019, 07:12 AM

Always good to have 2 A10 teams dancing - it’s been too long. And VCU had a good year. But in the end, ESPN said they were one of the last 4 in. I’d say one of the last 2. The bracket had a hole in Pittsburgh and VCU was closer than Green Bay and S Dakota. VCU was in consideration due to all the things they accomplished this year like winning 18 straight, but in the end they got the call because of location. Well take it. If the open spot had been at Purdue, it probably would have been between UD and Green Bay.

The one that ticks me off is ILL over S Dakota who went 27-2. ILL is 16-13. Their last match the LOST to Northwestern who is not in the tournament. And of their 16 wins, only TWO are against tournament teams. (Purdue and Marquette).

S Dakota got upset in their conference tournament, which apparently sealed their fate. That and their loss to Iowa State - a tournament team, were the only two losses. The also had 2 wins against Denver, who made the Dance. And they beat Iowa out of the Big 10. They did everything right, scheduled as tough as they could and it wasn’t enough to fill the last slot at BYU. They are playing in the NIVC this week.

Hosting: thinking ahead to next year, it looks like schools like Dayton can’t have more than about 4 losses. And those need to be against Top 25-50 teams and off-set with 3-4 wins in the same. That’s 6-8 Top 50 teams scheduled every year. We had 8 this year. VCU was two of those. Bottom line is we need VCU, SLU and one more team in the A10 to consistently be a Top 75 team because we need to pick up 2-3 of that Top 50 count from the conference. UD in the Top 50 helped VCU, As did our tougher schedule. We need more of that in- kind coming back to help UD.

Finally, there are some ticked off coaches in our region. Let’s start with Pitt. Should have been a Top 4 seed. Didn’t even get the 5th seed. They are 6th. Purdue, barely got a seed at 16. WKY only has two seniors. They will be looking for good teams to schedule, because they should be good again next year. Penn State ended up an 11 seed...not what they are use to. Illinois almost didn’t make it. Marqutte and Creighton can’t be happy they didn’t earn a seed/host. We should have opportunities for next year to build a great schedule. Over the next two years I think we will be going to Michigan and MO and have Louisville at Dayton. Florida and TXAM have nothing but respect for our program. Baylor, Texas, BYU and Stanford should be on our calling list. Stanford’s coach use to be at ILL and their strength coach is a UD Alum married to Rachael Broerman, a UD volleyball alum. Lots of scheduling options the next two years.

BeckysTXA · #25 12-02-2019, 11:42 AM

FL, WKY, TX, TXAM all start on Thursday. Glad we aren’t going to any of those places. I think you would travel Tuesday (tomorrow) if you are.

rollo · #26 12-02-2019, 11:47 AM

All Hail BeckysTXA! (And Figgie for his stats). What would we do without them?
Posted via Mobile Device

BeckysTXA · #27 12-02-2019, 11:49 AM

Several coaches were interviewed by ESPN last night after the bracket review. Almost all of them said they expected upsets this year because of parity moving into the sport.

I think I’d like to define their parity...in past years there were really only maybe 3-5 teams at this point in the season that could win it all. This year I do think that has gone up to 10-12. It will be interesting to see who makes the Sweet 16 and their number of Elite recruits. The third part of our parity series could be interesting.

BeckysTXA · #28 12-02-2019, 01:19 PM

Time for my bracket scorecard... First I did better than my first two years and I learned a little more that I’ll apply next year.

First number is how many I got right. Second number is now many I got wrong.

32-0 Auto-Qualifers (Started off strong!)

30-2 At Large Bids - missed VCU and ILL.

14-2 Top 16 National Seeds - I missed WKY and Rice were both in Conference USA and WKY won the tournament. Unforced turnover on my part. The second one was seeding Marquette even tho I knew they lost their conf tourney championship. Their rpi held at 13 so I gave them the call. Committee went with rpi 21 Purdue. I’m sure Big 10 played into their decision.

Next I grade where I place each team’s rank within their pod. This isn’t like seeding all 64 teams. AL St has an rpi of 311. Under a 64 seed tournament, they would have been sent to #1 Baylor. In the 16 National seed bracket, they are going to play one of the 16 seeded teams as the 4th place rank in a pod. The committee sent them to #10 FL. I had rpi 77 Winthrop out of SC going to play FL. Also Kenesaw St (68) could have gone to FL. All of them are close. Throw a dart. I’m not grading where they went. I don’t have airline ticket info like the committee does. I’m grading what rank I had them in a pod, and I had all 3 of these teams as 4th in a pod.

4th in Pod = 11-5
3rd in Pod = 8-8
2nd in Pod = 10-6

Top 4 Seeds = 3-1

Last night ear I was frustrated as heck. This year I’m pretty happy with my performance - other than the WKY fumble.

UDSpud · #29 12-02-2019, 03:06 PM

Just printed the 2019 NCAA Division 1 Women's Volleyball Championship bracket.

If Dayton beats Marquette (27-5) in the first game then it could play 16th seed Purdue (22-7) OR WRIGHT STATE (24-5) in the next round. Who would have THUNK?

If Dayton wins the first two games ( Marquette and Purdue/Wright State ), it gets worse. The projected third game would be against Baylor (25-1), the overall number 1 seed in the tournament.

For me it continues to get worse. I went to U. C. Santa Barbara (22-5) which plays Texas St. (24-8) in the first round game. Should UCSB win, it probably gets Texas (21-3) in the second round game. Texas is the number 2 overall seed in the entire tournament.

The A10 got VCU in (playing Cincinnati (25-6)and the Big West got Hawaii (24-3) in as a 12th seed overall.

Go Flyers and Gauchos.

jack72 · #30 12-03-2019, 08:52 AM

If we can get by Marquette and Purdue, then I'll take a matchup with Baylor. Considering how erratic this team has been at times, two wins in the NCAA would be awesome.

jack72 · #31 12-03-2019, 08:59 AM

Anyone aware of any TV for the match?

Lifelong Flyer Fan · #32 12-03-2019, 10:44 AM

I thought it would be streamed but I found this schedule page for the NCAA and all I found on VB was the semi final and finals on ESPN. Also checked Purdue's page and they have no streaming listed for their game.
https://web1.ncaa.org/NCAATV/exec/query

During my search, I read that OSU an Rutgers did not renew contracts of their coaches.

OSU failed to reach NCAA tourney last 3 years.
"Carlston was 235-170 during his time in Columbus and went to the NCAA Tournament seven times, including five trips to the round of 16 …"

https://volleyballmag.com/ncaa-volleyball-120319/
Other listed in the article including the RI coach.

BeckysTXA · #33 12-03-2019, 05:12 PM

There are spots out on ESPN2 for ncaa vball matches, but no logos of teams yet. I’m pretty sure all first round matches will be streamed.

CE80 · #34 12-03-2019, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA

There are spots out on ESPN2 for ncaa vball matches, but no logos of teams yet. I’m pretty sure all first round matches will be streamed.

Don't they usually do "wrap around" coverage?

BeckysTXA · #35 12-04-2019, 05:32 PM

Marquette vs Dayton on BTN+. No subscription needed.

BeckysTXA · #36 12-06-2019, 10:19 AM

TXAM, Florida. Louisville all through to the second round. No surprise to any Dayton fan.

Congrats to UDSpud. I think his alma mater is UCSB who is also through to the second round??? (Someone is a UCSB fan, so speak up if I have that wrong.)

jack72 · #37 12-06-2019, 10:28 AM

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA

Marquette vs Dayton on BTN+. No subscription needed.

How do I get on BTN+ for free? I only see it for free to BTN subscribers.

Lifelong Flyer Fan · #38 12-06-2019, 10:33 AM

I don't think you have to sign up for this because it's streaming free. Read in the Marquette preview, you just have to click on the link.
https://www.btnplus.com/game/ncaa-1s...n-vs-marquette

BeckysTXA · #39 12-06-2019, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by jack72

How do I get on BTN+ for free? I only see it for free to BTN subscribers.

When I was chatting with BTN+ a couple days ago, they said to just click on the upcoming link. If you needed a subscription you would have a subscribe link/button 8nstead of upcoming.