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  #201  
Old 03-03-2014, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
How does that top 50 record look now?

Dayton: 3-5

Team down South - 3-4

So much for any advantage there..
Agree now. Wait a few more days and it might change again. Xavier's win over Creighton (who GW beat) probably has them locked (unless they lose at Seton Hall tonight). They suck on the road so I wouldn't put it past them.
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  #202  
Old 03-03-2014, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Then I'm guessing you're not going to come into town early an a regular basis to speak to a group of OSU fans. I'd also guess that your hatred of OSU began before your girlfriend and her brother attened school there. At any rate, non of that matters, Joe isn't anti-UD.
My point was that you can't assume just because he is married to a UD grad that he likes UD...Chris Mack is also married to a UD grad and I bet UD isn't on the top of his favorite schools list.
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  #203  
Old 03-03-2014, 11:56 AM
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^^he's not married to a UD grad (that I know of), his sister and brother in law graduated from there. But that is not my only basis. I see it written quite often here that Joey Brackets hates on UD (same thing I see on other message boards of other teams when some writter doesn't write a glowing article on their school), while from what I know he's not anti-UD. To not include UD in your bracket 2 weeks before the field is selected is not being anti-UD, its using your judgement on what the field will look like. How accurate that judgement is, you can debate all day, but I don't think UD is in out in his mind right now because he hates all things UD.
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  #204  
Old 03-03-2014, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by jumpin' joe View Post
Then change the current RPI and keep adjusting it accordingly. I just think an agreed upon statistical method is the way to go. What we have now is a joke. The Selection Committee has bias, backroom dealings, politics, blackballing, buddy system, etc. written all over it.
Where else can a small group of men go into a closed room and divvy up tens of millions of dollars and: they are answerable to no one, they change and bend the rules and criteria as they see fit, they owe no one an explanation for their actions, and they are exempt from any legal challenges or suits based on their actions.

We all know the eye test is used, and that always favors the big kids on the block.

If not the RPI, then perhaps a blend of the RPI, the Sagarins and several other respected metrics could be used. That would do away with the shenanigans.
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  #205  
Old 03-03-2014, 12:06 PM
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Bobber, I believe I've read that they have both kenpom and the Sagrains amongst others available and presented as they are selecting the field. A lot of what you said is true, but I don't think they rely just on the RPI.
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  #206  
Old 03-03-2014, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
The only projection I follow anymore:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Just updated...

Last Four In.
This is really good. It is hard to argue with who is just ahead and who is just behind us. Even Baylor 7-9 in conference and Pitt with 1 top 50 win both being ahead of the Flyers.
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  #207  
Old 03-03-2014, 01:00 PM
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Yes, the DanceCard current projection seems to make the most sense right now. They are strictly looking at the metrics the committee has used in the past several years and have weighed them accordingly.
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  #208  
Old 03-03-2014, 02:29 PM
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Syracuse @ Florida State next sunday is gonna be big. That could wrap up a bid for them
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  #209  
Old 03-03-2014, 04:10 PM
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Off-topic

Originally Posted by bobber View Post
Where else can a small group of men go into a closed room and divvy up tens of millions of dollars and: they are answerable to no one, they change and bend the rules and criteria as they see fit, they owe no one an explanation for their actions, and they are exempt from any legal challenges or suits based on their actions. . .

Umm . . . Wall Street?

Just sayin' . . .

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  #210  
Old 03-03-2014, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
In 2001, Georgia was 16-14 and got an at-large bid...they have a history of getting bids regardless of record...which is why I'm focusing on them.
Their RPI was 27 and their SOS was #1 in the country. They must have played a heck of a schedule. They were an 8 seed so they weren't even very close to the bubble. The SEC got 6 bids that year.
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  #211  
Old 03-03-2014, 06:18 PM
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And they lost in the first round to finish 16-15.
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  #212  
Old 03-03-2014, 06:30 PM
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Is that the year they went on a tear and about won the SEC tournament coming out of the basement?

Not to rain on the parade of hope (trying to be objective, even if it hurts), but past trends and this years no show in the middle of the season and current statistics puts us in this bracket. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html (at least it is a good seed). They have blown several opportunities to get good wins at the Arena and now they have to get one on the road or a good string of them in New York. Not impossible, but they are going to have to show up with a lot of grit and play angry to beat SLU.
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  #213  
Old 03-03-2014, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Umm . . . Wall Street?
The White House...just sayin'
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  #214  
Old 03-03-2014, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
Is that the year they went on a tear and about won the SEC tournament coming out of the basement?

Not to rain on the parade of hope (trying to be objective, even if it hurts), but past trends and this years no show in the middle of the season and current statistics puts us in this bracket. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html (at least it is a good seed). They have blown several opportunities to get good wins at the Arena and now they have to get one on the road or a good string of them in New York. Not impossible, but they are going to have to show up with a lot of grit and play angry to beat SLU.
Check www.bracketmatrix.com Wednesday morning. This thing has a lag of about a week. We are still in some of the brackets that were updated on 2/28 (after the SJU loss). Less than 1/5 of the brackets have been updated.

Here is another one that ranks in the top 10 performing brackets (USA Today).

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/

In, but sweating it out.
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  #215  
Old 03-03-2014, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Check www.bracketmatrix.com Wednesday morning. This thing has a lag of about a week. We are still in some of the brackets that were updated on 2/28 (after the SJU loss). Less than 1/5 of the brackets have been updated.

Here is another one that ranks in the top 10 performing brackets (USA Today).

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/

In, but sweating it out.
we can look at which "x" team needs to lose, "x" team needs to win but article says it all and what we need to do: "looming tests at Saint Louis and against Richmond are now the next most important games."

nuff' said, just got to get it done.
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  #216  
Old 03-03-2014, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Agree now. Wait a few more days and it might change again. Xavier's win over Creighton (who GW beat) probably has them locked (unless they lose at Seton Hall tonight). They suck on the road so I wouldn't put it past them.
Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
How does that top 50 record look now?

Dayton: 3-5

Team down South - 3-4

So much for any advantage there..
Xavier is in the process of blowing any advantage right now. 2 losses to #148 Seton Hall.
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  #217  
Old 03-03-2014, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Xavier is in the process of blowing any advantage right now. 2 losses to #148 Seton Hall.
Remember that isn't RPI 148 Seton Hall, its Big East Member Seton Hall. At least that's how the committee will see it.
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  #218  
Old 03-03-2014, 08:56 PM
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Attention selection committee:

See Chris Wright 2008: Injury kept us out of the NCAA. Xavier likely won't win again without Stainbrook.
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  #219  
Old 03-03-2014, 08:57 PM
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That would be like us getting swept by RI
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  #220  
Old 03-03-2014, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
Remember that isn't RPI 148 Seton Hall, its Big East Member Seton Hall. At least that's how the committee will see it.
Wrong. The committee doesn't even have conference affiliations in front of them. I suggest you watch one of the mock drafts.
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  #221  
Old 03-03-2014, 10:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
That would be like us getting swept by RI
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Or Forham since Seton Hall is the lowest rated team in the NBE.
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  #222  
Old 03-03-2014, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Wrong. The committee doesn't even have conference affiliations in front of them. I suggest you watch one of the mock drafts.
I think any committee member would know that Xaxier is in the BE without a piece of paper telling him so. That said I was trying to suggest a big conference bias in the selection process with my needlessly snarky comment. Actually I read recently that one bracketologist recently took big conference bias out of his model in the last few years because it seems to have disappeared. I hope that is true.
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  #223  
Old 03-03-2014, 10:59 PM
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There is obviously "committee bias". You can't touch it, or taste it, but you know it is there. (sometimes you can smell it)

UD has to take care of business. period.
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  #224  
Old 03-03-2014, 11:21 PM
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I think we're in for an interesting couple of weeks.
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  #225  
Old 03-04-2014, 12:33 AM
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Xavier 3-4 top 50; Cal improves slightly and we move from 3-5 to 4-5.

We need St Bonnie's to move to top 100. Don't know what we want Cal to do?!?!?
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  #226  
Old 03-04-2014, 12:56 AM
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I think we need Cal to keep winning. A neutral court win over them is a big part of the resume.
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  #227  
Old 03-04-2014, 06:27 AM
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Problem is...when have we ever been on the right side of the bubble? We all thought we were safely in back in 2000 and 2004 and come to find out we were one of the last teams in. Other years, we felt like we were on the bubble and we weren't close at all compared to our seeding in the NIT. Bottom line, we aren't ever a surprise at-large bid. Don't think it's starting this year.
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  #228  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:45 AM
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http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...040710879.html
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  #229  
Old 03-04-2014, 10:01 AM
TerryK_67 TerryK_67 is offline
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At this point they are grasping for any, and every reason/excuse to eliminate teams. Doesn’t take much…… They don’t even know the big X guys condition and they have x’d then out…..
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  #230  
Old 03-04-2014, 10:25 AM
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The Committee does of course know what conference a team plays in, but they have no interest in putting in a certain number of teams from any conference. Don't forget in the end they are only debating about a dozen choices, because the other's are conference winners or no brainers. At that point the conference may make a difference because someone has a bias, but in no way can you convince me that they care how many teams make it from any conference.
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  #231  
Old 03-04-2014, 10:55 AM
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My apologies if this has been posted before, but I find this site the most informative:

For Dayton
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

For _avier
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
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  #232  
Old 03-04-2014, 11:34 AM
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Gotta love Jerry Palm's headline today haha:

Bracketology: Pitt falling into the pit; Xavier going with them

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...oing-with-them
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  #233  
Old 03-04-2014, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by jumpin' joe View Post
My apologies if this has been posted before, but I find this site the most informative:

For Dayton
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

For _avier
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

Good site. I agree with their assessment of us at 26% chance of making the tournament and while I agree Xavier's closer to 73%....I don't believe their average seed is 8. I think they will be closer to 11 or even in the First Four. If we make an at-large, I can't see it being anything other than First Four.

Note: My projection of us is assuming we do not overachieve rest of the way. Safe assumption. I project 2-2 rest of the way.
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Old 03-04-2014, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Good site. I agree with their assessment of us at 26% chance of making the tournament and while I agree Xavier's closer to 73%....I don't believe their average seed is 8. I think they will be closer to 11 or even in the First Four. If we make an at-large, I can't see it being anything other than First Four.

Note: My projection of us is assuming we do not overachieve rest of the way. Safe assumption. I project 2-2 rest of the way.
2-2 ain't gonna get it done. That would include wins over, presumably Richmond, and then our first round opponent in the A10 - with losses to SLU and another dancing A10 team in the quarters. I hope your prediction is wrong and they start by blowing that up tomorrow night in Chaifetz.
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  #235  
Old 03-04-2014, 11:55 AM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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You are right 2-2 isn't going to get it done. That's why I predict heartbreak city AGAIN for Dayton fans. I'm numb to it by now.
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  #236  
Old 03-04-2014, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
You are right 2-2 isn't going to get it done. That's why I predict heartbreak city AGAIN for Dayton fans. I'm numb to it by now.
I think you might be right about the 2-2. Unless one of the wins is tomorrow night, that might change the outcome. I think 22 wins is close and 23 wins is in.
Just my guess and I mean a GUESS...
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  #237  
Old 03-04-2014, 12:58 PM
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A few tidbits about the selection committee, just to give you an idea.

For starters, all committees pretty much work the same for all the team sports. There are some differences, but it doesn't matter if it's div1 men's basketball, or div3 women's volleyball, the procedure is pretty much the same.

There are ten of them. They each have three primary conferences (some have four) and seven secondary conferences. They are responsible for educating the rest of the committee on their conferences.

There are weekly teleconferences that begin before the season even starts

There are daily lists of games that they compile from their conferences that they feel are important. This starts the first day of the season.

And, on top of all that, these are people that work in college athletics every day of their lives, and have for several years.

They simply are not going to look at things as superficially as many bracketology experts do (IE, top 50 wins). Think about that. Top FIFTY!!! There is a huge gap between #1 and #50, so they aren't going to treat all of that the same. I like what Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm and some others do. I think it's interesting to look at. But, you will never find a bracketologist that was ever actually on the committee. You know why?? They'd be the first to tell you that it is a qualitative process, not a quantitative process, and you can't just categorically predict who will and will not get in.

Sometimes when teams go to places that are outside the top 50, or even outside the top 100, and win there, they get credit for it. Eastern Michigan is nowhere near the NCAA Tournament, but they're 10-3 at home. UMass went there and won. A bracketologist wouldn't count that as a meaningful win, but the selection committee probably would. Why?? Because the person in charge of the MAC would point out how tough Eastern Michigan is at home. I've said this in some other threads, but if you look at some of the selections and seedings in recent years, they are CLEARLY rewarding teams that go on the road and win, even if they're winning against teams that are nowhere near the tournament. That's why I think there are some teams, Xavier in particular, that did themselves no favors by scheduling just one true road game OOC, and not doing well in the neutral floor games they played, and the road conference games they've played.

As far as the process goes, they actually start by basically selecting 36 teams that will get in no matter what. They actually take a vote where every committee member lists up to 36 teams that belong in no matter what, and every team that gets 8 out of 10 votes is in the field.

All the teams that did not get 8 votes are placed onto what's called the "nomination board." All first place conference finishers are also on this board, so a team like North Dakota State has somewhat of a circumstantial advantage because they are guaranteed consideration for a bid if they end up falling in the conference tournament. So is NC Central, but they have no shot, so they might as well not even be up there. The committee can also nominate other teams for this secondary consideration board.

The next thing they do is get that total up to 36. So, if 30 teams got 8 votes, they'll take 6 more teams from the nomination board. If it was 28 teams, they take 8 more. I won't insult your intelligence by giving you more examples.

Then, every time one of those 36 teams wins a conference tournament, they add another team from the nomination board. Obviously, every team that wins a conference tournament of any kind is placed into the field regardless, but they only add to the list of 36 at-larges if one of the original 36 wins a conference tournament.

Then, they rank them, seed them, and bracket them.

So, from a procedural standpoint, it's different than what bracketologists do. The committee does not look for reasons to eliminate teams. They don't really eliminate teams. (well, they do. If eight members vote to remove a team from the secondary nomination board, they're eliminated). They add teams as spots become available, and they're looking for reasons to add teams.

I know I sound like a broken record, but if you look at the bubble over recent years and look who did and did not get in, the OVERWHELMING credential that all the teams who were selected seem to have is how they scheduled OOC, how many games they played away from home, and how many games they won away from home. There is no stronger indicator as to who they've been prone to take in recent years.
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  #238  
Old 03-04-2014, 01:16 PM
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XU, if go back and listen to the interviews with the selection committee chairs over the past few years, they specifically mention OOC scheduling and road wins. Since you can't control your conference schedule, they give you alot of credit for what you can control, ie, OOC. This is actually done to counteract the BCS bias where in the past BCS teams would schedule all cupcakes at home and hope to do OK in conference. Those days are gone as evidenced by the Alabama and Washington examples listed above.
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  #239  
Old 03-04-2014, 01:33 PM
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Pitt is going to be an interesting test case. They scheduled a cupcake OOC with zero away games. If the committee is true to it's word, Pitt should be in real trouble right now. They only have one good win ober Stanford on a neutral court.
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  #240  
Old 03-04-2014, 05:50 PM
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Bubble watch has been updated. Richmond has dropped out and VCU is a lock, our status is still... well, on the bubble.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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  #241  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:14 PM
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So if eight out of ten vote you in without consideration of any other individual teams, doesn't that create a bit of problem if/when the profile of otherwise more worthy school then some of the ones that received the eight votes comes-up for comparison? At that point, even if your at-large resume is better than one of those original 36 that received the votes (and you only got seven votes in original vote) you are by virtue bared from overtaking them in the process. How nice is that!!!???

And, so if you are voted an obvious 36, is then zero chance you can work your way back down to the "First Four", or last-four-in? So if eight of the members vote for Xavier right-off, then is Xavier exempt from first four status? Apparently that's what it means.

I could understand if the original nomination vote was for say 20 or maybe even 25 or perhaps 30 safely-in teams; but 36 is practically giving the farm away before the discernment really begins. Yeah sure you have the all-season study happening, but boy that sure lends itself to pre-disposed perspectives.

Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 03-04-2014 at 07:18 PM..
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  #242  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:21 PM
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I imagine getting 8 votes is pretty hard until late in the season for the very reasons we're seeing with _avier.

At least I sure hope so!
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  #243  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:33 PM
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Greasy Joe says... "It's hard to call Wednesday's trip to Saint Louis a must-win, because Saint Louis is a nightmare on its own floor. But it's close."

I hope our guys get off on the right foot tomorrow and as Bucky says - keep the hammer down. Still work left to do. Such a shame. Without that awful skid, we'd be in great shape.

As it is now, it's a bit of a long shot. Trying not to get my hopes up too high.
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  #244  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Levelbest View Post
Greasy Joe says... "It's hard to call Wednesday's trip to Saint Louis a must-win, because Saint Louis is a nightmare on its own floor. But it's close."

I hope our guys get off on the right foot tomorrow and as Bucky says - keep the hammer down. Still work left to do. Such a shame. Without that awful skid, we'd be in great shape.

As it is now, it's a bit of a long shot. Trying not to get my hopes up too high.
I feel the exact same way
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  #245  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I imagine getting 8 votes is pretty hard until late in the season for the very reasons we're seeing with _avier.

At least I sure hope so!
I beleive that is correct. Not that many get 8 votes on the first pass and many of those who do become auto qualifiers.
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  #246  
Old 03-04-2014, 07:46 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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A few posters have said it best, that USC loss is going to haunt us all season long
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  #247  
Old 03-04-2014, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
So if eight out of ten vote you in without consideration of any other individual teams, doesn't that create a bit of problem if/when the profile of otherwise more worthy school then some of the ones that received the eight votes comes-up for comparison? At that point, even if your at-large resume is better than one of those original 36 that received the votes (and you only got seven votes in original vote) you are by virtue bared from overtaking them in the process. How nice is that!!!???

And, so if you are voted an obvious 36, is then zero chance you can work your way back down to the "First Four", or last-four-in? So if eight of the members vote for Xavier right-off, then is Xavier exempt from first four status? Apparently that's what it means.

I could understand if the original nomination vote was for say 20 or maybe even 25 or perhaps 30 safely-in teams; but 36 is practically giving the farm away before the discernment really begins. Yeah sure you have the all-season study happening, but boy that sure lends itself to pre-disposed perspectives.
Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I imagine getting 8 votes is pretty hard until late in the season for the very reasons we're seeing with _avier.

At least I sure hope so!
Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I beleive that is correct. Not that many get 8 votes on the first pass and many of those who do become auto qualifiers.
They don't vote until the regular season is over. It's usually the Wednesday of Championship week. By then the season is pretty much over and none of the first 36 would fall down to the First Four simply by losing a game in the conference tournament. Unless, of course, none of those first 36 teams managed to win their conference tournaments. Then, whoever ended up ranked 33-36 would be in the First Four.

If Xavier and/or Dayton get in, I seriously doubt they'll be in that first 36.

Last edited by xubrew; 03-04-2014 at 08:14 PM..
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  #248  
Old 03-04-2014, 08:23 PM
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Seeding the teams is another process. It also takes forever.

They essentially start by each voting who they think the top eight teams are. If ten people all vote for the same eight teams, then those are the eight teams being discussed. If not, which it won't be, then it's the eight teams that get the most votes. If there is a tie, and there will be, they debate and vote to break the tie.

Each committee member then debates the top eight that they've decided on, and then individually ranks the top eight teams 1 thru 8. Whoever the top 4 teams are, are the #1 seeds.

The next four teams are thrown into the next cycle. They repeat the process by voting and then adding who the next four teams will be to join the previous four teams that were not seeded.

They debate those eight, then individually rank them, and hte top four are the #2 seeds.

This goes on all the way down the line.

The seeding begins before they're even done selecting the entire field. If something happens in the conference tournaments that makes them want to move a team up or down a seed line, a committee member has to propose a move, and then seven others have to vote in favor of the move.

So, I suppose it's possible to be one of the first 36 in, then get completely blown to bits in the conference tournament, and get moved all the way down to the First Four, or out entirely.

Having said that, if eight of the ten committee members think a team is one of the 36 best teams, the chances of eight of those same ten suddenly deciding that team doesn't even belong in the tournament after just one conference tournament loss is practically zero.
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  #249  
Old 03-04-2014, 08:57 PM
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Georgetown over Creighton....sh*t.
Baylor over Iowa State...double sh*t.


Good news...Illinois goes down at Michigan...

FWIW, GTECH over Syracuse by 4 with 1:15 left...
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  #250  
Old 03-04-2014, 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Georgetown over Creighton....sh*t.
Baylor over Iowa State...double sh*t.


Good news...Illinois goes down at Michigan...

FWIW, GTECH over Syracuse by 4 with 1:15 left...
The Georgetown win really hurts!

Could use Boston College to beat FSU......GT beat Syracuse at Syracuse by 5
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:56 PM
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The Baylor win actually gave us a little rpi bump.

Root for Kentucky, Marquette, and Boston College. Win tomorrow and our resume slides well past that team down south.
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Georgetown over Creighton....sh*t.
Baylor over Iowa State...double sh*t.


Good news...Illinois goes down at Michigan...

FWIW, GTECH over Syracuse by 4 with 1:15 left...
Sounds like a serious case of a need for a roll of rollopaper
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  #253  
Old 03-04-2014, 11:18 PM
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Marquette-Providence game is crazy. Marquette was up by one with 30 seconds left but they foul the three point shooter, who made the trey and the free throw for a four point play. Mayo for Marquette then gets fouled shooting a trey and makes all three free throws to tie the game. Providence then runs the clock down and misses a jump shot. Marquette's Gardner gets the rebound and launches almost a full court shot and...nothing but net. He nailed it. But wait! It was just a tick too late so it doesn't count.

Overtime. Henton with 17 points and 13 boards so far...

UPDATE: That was a great game. Marquette should have won, but Providence pulls it off in double overtime, 81-80.

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  #254  
Old 03-04-2014, 11:55 PM
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Not that UD needed anything else to go wrong in bubble land tonight, but that Providence game hurts...not good. With virtually all bubble teams winning tonight, the Flyers cannot afford an ugly beat-down loss to SLU on national TV the following night. Gotta compete, if not win.
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:11 AM
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Creighton loses. That makes Xavier's win over them less impressive, right?
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:24 AM
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UD land needs to forget about how bad we want Xavier to be, and start worrying more about the Flyers earning their way into the dance. Slamming X won't undo a 30 year + losing road streak. It won't make UD anymore NCAA Tourney worthy.

Xavier worries about getting in, or in most of the past 25 years, they didn't worry at all; but not UD fans, we worry about if X will make it, not if UD will make it, because we have come to expect us not to.
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:38 AM
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I apologize for being a fan 'wrong'. smh.
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Old 03-05-2014, 06:44 AM
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Providence and Georgetown wins really hurt
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Old 03-05-2014, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Providence and Georgetown wins really hurt
What really hurt was the loss to USC
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Old 03-05-2014, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Marquette-Providence game is crazy. Marquette was up by one with 30 seconds left but they foul the three point shooter, who made the trey and the free throw for a four point play. Mayo for Marquette then gets fouled shooting a trey and makes all three free throws to tie the game. Providence then runs the clock down and misses a jump shot. Marquette's Gardner gets the rebound and launches almost a full court shot and...nothing but net. He nailed it. But wait! It was just a tick too late so it doesn't count.

Overtime. Henton with 17 points and 13 boards so far...

UPDATE: That was a great game. Marquette should have won, but Providence pulls it off in double overtime, 81-80.
By the way Henton's attempt to get to a better team and better conference has gone nowhere so far. Gibson plays for a very good team, but has only played in 11 games. In the end these guys gained nothing and we did not lose much. Not much difference between Dyshawn and Henton, and Gibson and Scott.

What is up with Syracuse? Maybe they need to try a man to man.
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:00 AM
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Syracuse's problem hasn't been their defense in the last 2 losses, their offense has been terrible. They have CJ Fair and... some other guys who can't score.
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:24 AM
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Why are the talking heads considering Nebraska a bubble team? really?....Nebraska? To top it all off during the half time of the Boston vs Florida St. game last night a talking head mentioned Indiana as a possible bubble team....really? man....

Just a side note, I believe UD has the dubious honor of holding the record for the lowest RPI not to make the tournament. (was it 38?) Bottom line, the only way UD can be safely in the field is to win the A-10 tourney. Anything short of the automatic bid historically isn't good for UD. There is a reason we are second in the country in the number of NIT games played because most years we are on the wrong side of the bubble.
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Gem City View Post
Just a side note, I believe UD has the dubious honor of holding the record for the lowest RPI not to make the tournament. (was it 38?)
I posted this last week....lowest RPI's not to receive an at-large bid...don't you follow everything I say??

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Old 03-05-2014, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Gem City View Post
Why are the talking heads considering Nebraska a bubble team? really?....Nebraska? To top it all off during the half time of the Boston vs Florida St. game last night a talking head mentioned Indiana as a possible bubble team....really? man....
The talking heads trump up the teams that are on your tv screen at the time if they have even the slightest chance...or not.
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Gem City View Post
Why are the talking heads considering Nebraska a bubble team? really?....Nebraska? To top it all off during the half time of the Boston vs Florida St. game last night a talking head mentioned Indiana as a possible bubble team....really? man....

Just a side note, I believe UD has the dubious honor of holding the record for the lowest RPI not to make the tournament. (was it 38?) Bottom line, the only way UD can be safely in the field is to win the A-10 tourney. Anything short of the automatic bid historically isn't good for UD. There is a reason we are second in the country in the number of NIT games played because most years we are on the wrong side of the bubble.
You have to look at the entire season, but if you were to look simply at how good a team is in the present moment, Nebraska is pretty **** good. I think they're perhaps the most improved team when you look at how good they were in November as opposed to how good they are now. If they do get into the NCAAs, I would actually expect them to get past the round of 64.

They did completely blow it at Illinois, but they're 8-2 in their last ten games with the only other loss being at Michigan. They also have a win at Michigan State in that stretch. If they win at Indiana and then beat Wisconsin at home, and then play their way into the Big Ten semifinals, I do think they'll make the field. I also think they're good enough to accomplish that.

Tim Miles is a genius. He won at North Dakota State when they transitioned up to div1. He took a Colorado State that finished outside the top 250 four years in a row, and made them a tournament team. Now, he's made Nebraska a tournament caliber team. Even if they don't get there this year, they return pretty much everyone and even add some good players, so they'll be strong next year. I've been a huge fan of his for quite some time, and I said that when Nebraska hired him, he'd have them competing for the NCAA Tournament by his third year. I may have underestimated him. He may do it in his second year.
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I said that when Nebraska hired him, he'd have them competing for the NCAA Tournament by his third year. I may have underestimated him. He may do it in his second year.
NCAA in his 3rd year?!....dat's unhoid uv in deez parts of da woild!
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:06 AM
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XU, I too am impressed with Nebraska this year, but they would need alot to go right to get a bid. Their OOC is pretty bad. They are 0-2 on the road in the OOC and only 2-8 on the road overall. It's what they call home court hero. These teams don't generally make the cut.
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
NCAA in his 3rd year?!....dat's unhoid uv in deez parts of da woild!
I said more than once that Dayton should hire him. He was definitely available and he definitely would have been interested.

Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
XU, I too am impressed with Nebraska this year, but they would need alot to go right to get a bid. Their OOC is pretty bad. They are 0-2 on the road in the OOC and only 2-8 on the road overall. It's what they call home court hero. These teams don't generally make the cut.
I agree. I just think they're dangerous if they do end up getting in. If they win out until the Big Ten semis, they'll have won three more games away from home, and they'll have a home win over Wiscy. I do think that will be enough.
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:52 AM
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Bracket matrix was updated last night. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

We are close but no cigar. The UMass win about doubled the number of pundits that have predicted us as in. Winning tonight is an easier road than trying to work our way in through the A10 tourney. There are too many ways we can get bumped at the bottom of the pecking order by auto bids, etc. As some have stated, winning against the 11 seed in the A10 tourney won't help us.

Git 'er done Flyers!
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:13 PM
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Team A vs Team B

Interesting reading...........with the Flyers in the equation.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...opefuls/page/4
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by udflyerfan View Post
Team A vs Team B

Interesting reading...........with the Flyers in the equation.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...opefuls/page/4
It is the 3 bad losses vs. 0 bad losses. In case you were not aware, that USC loss really hurt.

Dance Card was updated through last night. Bubble bursts after 47. Flyers at 44. Just above Gtown 45, Missouri 46 and Pitt 47. Just under X 41, BYU 42, Cal 43. Colorado is 33.

Can always argue but I can see why those teams are ranked where they are. More games to be played.

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Old 03-05-2014, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I posted this last week....lowest RPI's not to receive an at-large bid...don't you follow everything I say??

2008 was the Chris Wright injury. I don't know the circumstances of the other teams, but I'll guess each and every one of the omissions comes with a very specific reason to be left out - like an atrocious road/neutral record, a pathetic non-con SOS, or in our case, an injury that drastically changed the complexion and performance of the team that would be playing in the tournament.
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:24 PM
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This 'Top 50' stuff needs to be better explained as 2 teams with 3 Top 50 wins aren't the same if team 1 beat #'s 39, 44 and 48 and team 2 beat #5, 12 and 21.

In fact, the resume of a team with 3 Top 50 wins might be stronger than another team with 5 Top 50 wins, depending on where they stand in that number.

So if you're using the Top 50 as a tool to say XXXX should get in over YYYY due to Top 50 wins, please include the teams they beat....because the decision regarding who gets an at-large bid won't be made in a vague vacuum.
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
This 'Top 50' stuff needs to be better explained as 2 teams with 3 Top 50 wins aren't the same if team 1 beat #'s 39, 44 and 48 and team 2 beat #5, 12 and 21.

In fact, the resume of a team with 3 Top 50 wins might be stronger than another team with 5 Top 50 wins, depending on where they stand in that number.

So if you're using the Top 50 as a tool to say XXXX should get in over YYYY due to Top 50 wins, please include the teams they beat....because the decision regarding who gets an at-large bid won't be made in a vague vacuum.
Yes, and when three of your seven top fifty losses are at Arizona, at UCLA and at Arizona State, who are a combined 50-3 at home, and a fourth loss was again to Arizona who has just two losses on the year (and none at full strength), that's a little different than losing at home to a bubble team that happens to be in the top fifty.

Comparisons like this are interesting, but they're also pointless. This simply isn't how the committee looks at teams, and thank God for that.

I don't particularly like Colorado, but I'm not going to point to their 3-7 record against top 50 teams to make that case because when you look at it closely, that's a really weak argument.
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Old 03-05-2014, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I posted this last week....lowest RPI's not to receive an at-large bid...don't you follow everything I say??

I don't remember Texas Tech from 1997, but after looking at their profile, it seems crazy that they would have been left out.

Missouri State from 2006 is to this day the worst omission of a team, ever. There were two teams from their conference that finished behind them in the standings that got picked over them, and they took an Air Force team and a Utah State team that didn't look anywhere close to being as good as Missouri State. Hofstra was left out that same year. George Mason went to the Final Four that year, and Hofstra had beaten them twice in the final eight days of the season. Granted, Mason didn't look like a FF team at the time (in fact UNC Wilmington was the best team in the league), but still. It was surprising to see Mason in and Hofstra out. It was beyond surprising to see Air Force and Utah State in, and Missouri State and Hofstra out.

In 2007, Air Force badly lost their last four games of the year, and all of them were to weak teams. They win just one of them, I think they go. It was also hard to feel too sorry for them when they had no business getting in the year before.
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  #276  
Old 03-05-2014, 12:57 PM
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What is oh so apparent in looking at the bubble today and the past selections/snubs, is that the margin is so thin. One game (or just a basket) can make all the difference.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:01 PM
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Texas Tech probation accounts for them not getting in 1997
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  #278  
Old 03-05-2014, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
2008 was the Chris Wright injury. I don't know the circumstances of the other teams, but I'll guess each and every one of the omissions comes with a very specific reason to be left out - like an atrocious road/neutral record, a pathetic non-con SOS, or in our case, an injury that drastically changed the complexion and performance of the team that would be playing in the tournament.
That is usually the case. A bubble team has a glaring weakness and it causes them to be left out. More often than not it is due to a weak OOC or terrible road record.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Comparisons like this are interesting, but they're also pointless. This simply isn't how the committee looks at teams, and thank God for that.
Fascinating...and this is just another reason why I read all your posts.
According to ESPN's Daily RPI, here are the wins for UD and all the teams ahead of them with respect to Top 50 wins.

Team(RPI): Top 50 RPI wins
Pitt...(46): ........ 41
Minn...(47): ....... 4, 26, 32
Neb...(48):......... 21, 26, 47
Ark...(49): ......... 18 (twice), 35, 47
Cal...(50): .......... 1, 31, 41, 49
Prov...(51): ........ 11, 43
UD...(52): ..........12, 27, 28, 50

I was hoping my theory would help us jump a couple teams I consider weak candidates for at-large invites...but apparently I'm wrong!!
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
It is the 3 bad losses vs. 0 bad losses. In case you were not aware, that USC loss really hurt.

Dance Card was updated through last night. Bubble bursts after 47. Flyers at 44. Just above Gtown 45, Missouri 46 and Pitt 47. Just under X 41, BYU 42, Cal 43. Colorado is 33.

Can always argue but I can see why those teams are ranked where they are. More games to be played.
Can't argue with any of the Dancecard's rankings. The thing saving our bacon right now, imo, is our OOC schedule and road/neutral record. If we get in we can thank the road victories over Ole Miss, GA Tech and neutral wins over Zaga and Cal. Notice how they have Pitt right on the cut line. That's solely because of their horrible OOC.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I don't remember Texas Tech from 1997, but after looking at their profile, it seems crazy that they would have been left out.

Missouri State from 2006 is to this day the worst omission of a team, ever. There were two teams from their conference that finished behind them in the standings that got picked over them, and they took an Air Force team and a Utah State team that didn't look anywhere close to being as good as Missouri State. Hofstra was left out that same year. George Mason went to the Final Four that year, and Hofstra had beaten them twice in the final eight days of the season. Granted, Mason didn't look like a FF team at the time (in fact UNC Wilmington was the best team in the league), but still. It was surprising to see Mason in and Hofstra out. It was beyond surprising to see Air Force and Utah State in, and Missouri State and Hofstra out.

In 2007, Air Force badly lost their last four games of the year, and all of them were to weak teams. They win just one of them, I think they go. It was also hard to feel too sorry for them when they had no business getting in the year before.
On the surface, it appears Missouri State's non conference schedule was really bad. It only included 8 games (9 if you count a bracket busters game). They went 7-1 in those games and all 7 of the wins were against teams above #127 in the RPI - #127, #230, #159, #202, #134, #177 and #230. Message - punish those for playing a terribly weak schedule, particularly the part of the schedule you control.

Their record against other at large teams was 3-7, and probably lacked a signature win. Those 3 wins came against other conference foes and all were above RPI#30.

They did seem to be good on the road and didn't really have any "bad" losses. They also won 8 or their last 10, back in the day when their was a perception that it mattered.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:46 PM
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Missouri St is a perfect example of getting left out because you didn't schedule in the OOC. I believe Pitt is this year's Missouri St.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Missouri St is a perfect example of getting left out because you didn't schedule in the OOC. I believe Pitt is this year's Missouri St.
We can only hope.

Pitt finishes on the road at Clemson. Would really like to see a loss there.
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Notice how they have Pitt right on the cut line. That's solely because of their horrible OOC.
Maybe Pitt will give us another home-and-home to beef up their non-conference schedule.....or maybe not.
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
On the surface, it appears Missouri State's non conference schedule was really bad. It only included 8 games (9 if you count a bracket busters game). They went 7-1 in those games and all 7 of the wins were against teams above #127 in the RPI - #127, #230, #159, #202, #134, #177 and #230. Message - punish those for playing a terribly weak schedule, particularly the part of the schedule you control.

Their record against other at large teams was 3-7, and probably lacked a signature win. Those 3 wins came against other conference foes and all were above RPI#30.

They did seem to be good on the road and didn't really have any "bad" losses. They also won 8 or their last 10, back in the day when their was a perception that it mattered.
Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Missouri St is a perfect example of getting left out because you didn't schedule in the OOC. I believe Pitt is this year's Missouri St.
Their OOC was bad, but Air Force's and Utah State's were worse, and they did worse against it.

Air Force played three games against the RPI top 190. They played five games against teams that were outside the RPI top 290. Their OOC schedule makes this year's Pitt schedule look like Murderer's Row. I think they only had four top 100 wins, and two of those were against #92 UNLV
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Maybe Pitt will give us another home-and-home to beef up their non-conference schedule.....or maybe not.
I believe Jamie Dixon was quoted after the thrashing he received that he would never bring his team back to the arena. You can tell from Pitt's OOC schedule that he refuses to play good teams, or even average teams away.
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:44 PM
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Oregon played one road game and won against Mississippi.
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Oregon played one road game and won against Mississippi.
Correct, but difference with the Pitt situation is Oregon has a OOC SOS of 54 and Pitt has OOC SOS of a whopping 232. So while Oregon didn't play a slew of road games they at least played a difficult schedule and not just cupcakes.
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Old 03-05-2014, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Fascinating...and this is just another reason why I read all your posts.
According to ESPN's Daily RPI, here are the wins for UD and all the teams ahead of them with respect to Top 50 wins.

Team(RPI): Top 50 RPI wins
Pitt...(46): ........ 41
Minn...(47): ....... 4, 26, 32
Neb...(48):......... 21, 26, 47
Ark...(49): ......... 18 (twice), 35, 47
Cal...(50): .......... 1, 31, 41, 49
Prov...(51): ........ 11, 43
UD...(52): ..........12, 27, 28, 50

I was hoping my theory would help us jump a couple teams I consider weak candidates for at-large invites...but apparently I'm wrong!!
NO say it aint so... a typo surely; the great Rollo wrong...unbelievable
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:02 AM
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Even Lunardi now has us in.
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  #291  
Old 03-06-2014, 12:04 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Even Lunardi now has us in.
That should read: now Lunardi was forced to put us in...
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  #292  
Old 03-06-2014, 12:29 AM
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Lunardi is a fool. He's about the 38th most accurate bracketologist. he just has a bigger megaphone than most. We were probably just in before this game, but winning on the road against a top 20 RPI team, after beating a top 15 team at home is huge.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:46 AM
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Wink Exactly!

Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
That should read: now Lunardi was forced to put us in...

Yes, Exactly right! But because he hated to admit it, he keeps UD as the last team in. If we lose to Richmond, we might be the last team in, but not a chance of that being true as of right now...no shot. Lunardi just likes the head games with UD fans...that is all.
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:16 AM
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Xavier playing 1st round in Dayton

We can watch them while we wait for our second round game against Memphis.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/bracketology
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
We can watch them while we wait for our second round game against Memphis.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/bracketology
I have a feeling there is a ton of Missouri fans on this board if this were to happen!
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Old 03-06-2014, 08:17 AM
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Flyers Front and Center.............nice article and picture



http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...062952264.html
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Old 03-06-2014, 08:22 AM
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Flyers Statement Game...................nice press


http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...062952264.html
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:24 AM
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Today's Dance Card...........looks good

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #299  
Old 03-06-2014, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by udflyerfan View Post
Today's Dance Card...........looks good

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Wow, just 2 slots behind tOSU. Of course, they'll probably get like a 5 seed and we'll get like an 11 or 12, and Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps will be livid on ESPN that Dayton got in and that Minnesota or Clemson or some other crappy "big" school didn't get in haha.
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  #300  
Old 03-06-2014, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by udflyerfan View Post
Today's Dance Card...........looks good

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
OK, my red and blue glasses are rarely off, and my opinion of our Flyers is sometimes a bit more optimistic than it should be, but seriously, I can not believe our resume is currently #33 in the country. Seems a bit optimistic to me, but very happy to be prooven wrong.
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