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03-06-2014, 10:37 AM
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I want to get excited but history keeps slapping me in the face. Still, these guys have shown that they don't want to quit. Hoping my UD red rose colored glasses don't get kicked to the curb again.
Win against Richmond - things will take care of themselves. Erase all doubt.
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03-06-2014, 11:02 AM
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That Dancecard was before the SLU win. I imagine they will have us somewhere in the 38-40 range now. Road wins against top 25 teams are highly valued by the committee.
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03-06-2014, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
That Dancecard was before the SLU win. I imagine they will have us somewhere in the 38-40 range now. Road wins against top 25 teams are highly valued by the committee.
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You need to refresh your page, we are up to #33. Solidly in, ahead of even GW and St. Joe's.
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03-06-2014, 11:08 AM
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According to the Dancecard numbers we are no worse than a 10 seed.
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03-06-2014, 12:15 PM
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At this point can A10 get 6? If not, who is out? I'm stumped.
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03-06-2014, 12:23 PM
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Yup, Even Lunardi is putting us in despite his skepticism of the Flyers (he does know us well) and sticks us in the first four. Gotta love the Leap Frog the SLU game gave us.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
I hope the party was short lived and the team is hitting the gym focussing on Saturday to seal the deal. Wow, we may finish 10-6 despite the 1-5 start.
Git 'er done Flyers!
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03-06-2014, 01:02 PM
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Gotta TCB on Saturday against Richmond and then win at least one in the A-10 tournament, and THEN we can exhale. Until we do that, there are too many things that can happen.....and most of them are bad.
But win 23 games and we'll take it out of the hands of the "eye test" sleez balls, and make it so even they can't throw the bid to one of their buddies.
Of course, they'll still stick us with a bad seed, but that's the way the business is done.
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03-06-2014, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
I've already stated my opinion of Pitt and further review of the SEC makes me wonder where and how the NCAA Committee will handle the SEC, more specifically, Georgia.
UGA stands at 10-6 and is a strong 3rd in the SEC but their RPI is in the low 80's...btw, UGA's last 2 games are very winnable which will give them a favorable seed in the SEC tourney. The SEC may only get 3 bids (yeah, right!) but more likely 4-5...which means that teams like Mizzou (RPI 52) - 2 full games behind UGA - could get chosen ahead of UGA...but if you take Mizzou over UGA, you also have to consider all the teams surrounded by Mizzou (LSU/Ole Miss/A&M all 8-8) as well as Ark and Tenn (9-7).
The SEC is going to be an interesting watch and will test TA111's theory that wins matter, not conference record. And every bid above 3 that the SEC gets will take 1 away from the A10.
The Big12 - Oklahoma State for sure and WVa if they win their last 2 against NCAA locks KU and OU - could also be interesting.
Regardless, the Selection Sunday post-bracket analysis show will undoubtedly be interesting.
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Pitt has 1 last chance to 'earn' a bid...and won't.
Georgia keeps winning...and will.
Missouri, Ark and Tennessee aren't far behind...
The more these teams lose, the better off we are...as long as we keep winning, too.
We also need Gonzaga and St. Louis to win as they are 2 of our 3 wins in the RPI Top 25. Both are in the 20's right now. Perception being what it is, these two need to keep winning to avoid adding to our 26-50 RPI wins.
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03-06-2014, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber
Gotta TCB on Saturday against Richmond and then win at least one in the A-10 tournament, and THEN we can exhale. Until we do that, there are too many things that can happen.....and most of them are bad.
But win 23 games and we'll take it out of the hands of the "eye test" sleez balls, and make it so even they can't throw the bid to one of their buddies.
Of course, they'll still stick us with a bad seed, but that's the way the business is done.
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Did you see Lunardi's bracket? 12 seed in the First Four then off to.....SPOKANE!! I don't think he dislikes us but I do think he likes messing with us.
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03-06-2014, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Did you see Lunardi's bracket? 12 seed in the First Four then off to.....SPOKANE!! I don't think he dislikes us but I do think he likes messing with us.
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LOL. Lundardi is such an irrelevant joke! I heard he started the tradition of the Hawk flapping his wings when he served as the mascot while at StJ!!
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03-06-2014, 01:53 PM
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Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists around, so let's stop using him as some sort of guru. Look at the resumes. The Flyers have a much better resume than most of the so-called bubble teams. I think people are going to be shocked on selection Sunday.
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03-06-2014, 02:11 PM
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speaking of Lunardi...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/
He gives props to Dayton, then seemingly tries to take it away with no real reasoning. Kind of akward, the interviewer then proceeds to bring up the B10 and their recieved (or perhaps real) order at or near the top of the pecking forder of college BBall conferences. Lurnardi says that is a big factor, but there is also other big factors, like UD's road record that pushed them above Nebraska. here is the problem with Joe's analysis, I don't think conference affiliation plays any roll on selection sunday, other than that conference affiliation accounts for over half of your regular season schedule. Giving "bonus" awards for conference toughness would be akin to double dipping, you already get credit for SOS, no need to elevate it further because the conference is tough. As dancecard has described, and seems to be the case, the NCAA has gotten away (if they ever were there) w/ choosing teams by conference. The a10 has done pretty well in the at large department the last few seasons.
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03-06-2014, 02:20 PM
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Exactly!
[QUOTE=Did you see Lunardi's bracket? 12 seed in the First Four then off to.....SPOKANE!! I don't think he dislikes us but I do think he likes messing with us.QUOTE]
That's exactly what it is, head games with UD fans because he knows it stirs the pot given our very frustrating bubble forever program, so he uses to drive interest and play with our emotions. He knows we will tweet him, etc., and thus make his Lunaridism grow.
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03-06-2014, 02:22 PM
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Medford, exactly, Lunardi has no clue. There is no conference afilliation metric. Obviously, the better your conference opponents, the better your chances for good wins, but that's it.
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03-06-2014, 02:23 PM
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If more of the Flyer Faithful had thicker skin and larger sacks, this stuff would go unnoticed...'if'...like that's gonna happen!
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03-06-2014, 02:30 PM
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03-06-2014, 02:31 PM
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So what does it mean that we are 100%? Certainly cannot be that we could lose the next two and still be in.
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03-06-2014, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72
So what does it mean that we are 100%? Certainly cannot be that we could lose the next two and still be in.
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100% if the field was selected today. We were 100% after the UMASS game and slid back from 100% over the last few bad bubble days for us. SLU has put us back at 100%, but Richmond could knock us down.
Richmond is Flying to Dayton tonight after their 9pm tip at VCU. We need to win this one.
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03-06-2014, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
speaking of Lunardi...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/
He gives props to Dayton, then seemingly tries to take it away with no real reasoning. Kind of akward, the interviewer then proceeds to bring up the B10 and their recieved (or perhaps real) order at or near the top of the pecking forder of college BBall conferences. Lurnardi says that is a big factor, but there is also other big factors, like UD's road record that pushed them above Nebraska. here is the problem with Joe's analysis, I don't think conference affiliation plays any roll on selection sunday, other than that conference affiliation accounts for over half of your regular season schedule. Giving "bonus" awards for conference toughness would be akin to double dipping, you already get credit for SOS, no need to elevate it further because the conference is tough. As dancecard has described, and seems to be the case, the NCAA has gotten away (if they ever were there) w/ choosing teams by conference. The a10 has done pretty well in the at large department the last few seasons.
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If we look closely at Nebraska's schedule, you will see that 11 of their 18 conference games have come against the bottom half of the B1G: Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota.
They are a big time paper tiger. They beat Ohio State and Michigan State once each. They play Wisconsin this weekend.... if they win that, I think they'll get in. Otherwise they'll be 17-13 with an uneventful non-conference schedule where they had some decently difficult games but didn't win any of the hard ones. We are way above Nebraska.
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03-06-2014, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Richmond is Flying to Dayton tonight after their 9pm tip at VCU.
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Yep, which is no walk in the park. Thus, we can't have any excuses like it's hard to recover from a tough 9 pm Wednesday night battle at SLU for a Saturday night game or anything like that. No excuse for not being prepared for this one.
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03-06-2014, 04:09 PM
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Does anybody really think we would be a First Four team playing at home? Think of the s&^%storm there would be after that and the consequences of that maybe moving it to a truly neutral site. I think we may be one of the last 4 in but will be moved up a seed line (they can do that) to keep us out of the First Four.
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03-06-2014, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by rasta man
Does anybody really think we would be a First Four team playing at home? Think of the s&^%storm there would be after that and the consequences of that maybe moving it to a truly neutral site. I think we may be one of the last 4 in but will be moved up a seed line (they can do that) to keep us out of the First Four.
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I don't know if they will or would. But what would tickets be worth in a first round game between UD and x....
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03-06-2014, 04:22 PM
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The UD fans/Administrators who love the Play-In games at UD and want them to stay for financial or exposure reasons better hope that UD doesn't get one of them.
The NCAA is already looking to split the games and play some elsewhere...all they need is a reason...and UD playing at home and beating anyone - especially a BigEast or BCS team - may be all it takes to motivate the NCAA to rotate venues.
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03-06-2014, 04:23 PM
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...caa-tournament
Dayton 72, Saint Louis 67. The Flyers (No. 43, 21-9) have lost just once in the last month, and beating the A-10-leading Billikens at their place is massive. Win at home against a fringe bubble team in Richmond on Saturday, and the Flyers’ place may be secure.
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03-06-2014, 05:24 PM
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I still think Nebraska is playing really well right now. Had they played as well in November, December and January as they have in February and March so far, their profile would look a lot different. Their resume may be a paper tiger, but their current team is not.
The problem I have with the First Four is that logistically it's not easy for fans to get to Dayton on 48 hrs notice. It's not easy to get anywhere else either, so we'd have this same problem no matter where it was.
Having it in two locations and giving two options makes it more likely to be more manageable.
What about the idea of playing all the First Four games at campus sites?? That way, half the teams don't have to travel at all, and the other half probably wouldn't have to go as far because you could just pair them up with whoever is closer. It would also be more manageable for the fans, and create a better atmosphere.
Keep in mind that college basketball is the only NCAA Championship that isn't played at campus sites at any point. So, it's not THAT radical of an idea when you look at how all the other sports do it.
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03-06-2014, 05:35 PM
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More bubble watch pub from Bleacher Report, and a nice picture of the Flyers headlining the A10 section. I think this guy is right on, a win on Saturday should be enough to punch our ticket, don't forget Richmond's RPI is still relatively high at 60.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...week-18/page/4
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03-06-2014, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23
More bubble watch pub from Bleacher Report, and a nice picture of the Flyers headlining the A10 section. I think this guy is right on, a win on Saturday should be enough to punch our ticket, don't forget Richmond's RPI is still relatively high at 60.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...week-18/page/4
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after reading that I think that we should have convinced Xavier and Butler to stay and renamed the A10 the Bigger East.
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03-06-2014, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
after reading that I think that we should have convinced Xavier and Butler to stay and renamed the A10 the Bigger East.
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Well maybe Butler.
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03-06-2014, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
after reading that I think that we should have convinced Xavier and Butler to stay and renamed the A10 the Bigger East.
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This has been discussed before but had X and Butler stayed the A-10 would be much better than the Big East. The A-10 is better right now. And who would the Big East-7 have added? They would have been desperate.
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03-06-2014, 07:33 PM
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Watching my second favorite team play (which is Villanova tonight since they are playing X) and the color commentator talking about X's toughness says "this is a nice group of kids Xavier, they compete, there is just no one out there I think that would want to get you in a fist fight." Total silence by the play by play guy!
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03-06-2014, 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23
More bubble watch pub from Bleacher Report, and a nice picture of the Flyers headlining the A10 section. I think this guy is right on, a win on Saturday should be enough to punch our ticket, don't forget Richmond's RPI is still relatively high at 60.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...week-18/page/4
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I like what they have to say, but regardless, I think it would be really, really hard for the committee to take UD and not take St Joes. Our resume summary may look better but they beat UD twice and they are ahead of us in conference. Am I missing something?
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03-06-2014, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by AC91
I like what they have to say, but regardless, I think it would be really, really hard for the committee to take UD and not take St Joes. Our resume summary may look better but they beat UD twice and they are ahead of us in conference. Am I missing something?
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I don't think it's one or the other question right now both should be in.
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03-06-2014, 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
I still think Nebraska is playing really well right now. Had they played as well in November, December and January as they have in February and March so far, their profile would look a lot different. Their resume may be a paper tiger, but their current team is not.
The problem I have with the First Four is that logistically it's not easy for fans to get to Dayton on 48 hrs notice. It's not easy to get anywhere else either, so we'd have this same problem no matter where it was.
Having it in two locations and giving two options makes it more likely to be more manageable.
What about the idea of playing all the First Four games at campus sites?? That way, half the teams don't have to travel at all, and the other half probably wouldn't have to go as far because you could just pair them up with whoever is closer. It would also be more manageable for the fans, and create a better atmosphere.
Keep in mind that college basketball is the only NCAA Championship that isn't played at campus sites at any point. So, it's not THAT radical of an idea when you look at how all the other sports do it.
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I like your idea of having a couple Regional sites to make travel easier
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03-06-2014, 09:27 PM
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Eggs just lost again. They are now likely to be playing in the NIT unless they have a great run in the BE tourney.
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03-06-2014, 09:33 PM
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Wow, the Spiders are giving VCU all they can handle right now at Robins. We can't take that team llightly.
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03-06-2014, 09:48 PM
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You can't take any team lightly. Just ask SLU.
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03-06-2014, 11:01 PM
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VCU now up five at the under-four timeout.
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03-07-2014, 12:38 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Eggs just lost again. They are now likely to be playing in the NIT unless they have a great run in the BE tourney.
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Just checked the BE standings. Eggs could be anywhere from a 3-seed to a 5-seed, with their first game (most likely) against Providence, St. John's, or Marquette, against whom they're a collective 4-2, but that was with Stainbrook. At that point, they might win 1 game in MSG, but I can't see 'em beating either 'Nova or Creighton to get to the finals (and then, probably, playing the other in the finals), and I don't think 21-12 will get them in the 4-letter tournament.
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03-07-2014, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Just checked the BE standings. Eggs could be anywhere from a 3-seed to a 5-seed, with their first game (most likely) against Providence, St. John's, or Marquette, against whom they're a collective 4-2, but that was with Stainbrook. At that point, they might win 1 game in MSG, but I can't see 'em beating either 'Nova or Creighton to get to the finals (and then, probably, playing the other in the finals), and I don't think 21-12 will get them in the 4-letter tournament.
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They've also only won 1/3 of their games away from home this season with the only conference teams they've won at being SJ and the two cellar dwellers - Butler & DePaul
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03-07-2014, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi
They've also only won 1/3 of their games away from home this season with the only conference teams they've won at being SJ and the two cellar dwellers - Butler & DePaul
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Creighton did just fine this year in the BE, I remember you were a big Creighton critic. But, next year without McDermott could be a different story, we'll see.
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03-07-2014, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Just checked the BE standings. Eggs could be anywhere from a 3-seed to a 5-seed, with their first game (most likely) against Providence, St. John's, or Marquette, against whom they're a collective 4-2, but that was with Stainbrook. At that point, they might win 1 game in MSG, but I can't see 'em beating either 'Nova or Creighton to get to the finals (and then, probably, playing the other in the finals), and I don't think 21-12 will get them in the 4-letter tournament.
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I think x is the BE 3-seed unless Providence wins at Creighton or STJ wins at Marq tomorrow.
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03-07-2014, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
I think x is the BE 3-seed unless Providence wins at Creighton or STJ wins at Marq tomorrow.
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Correcting myself, the STJ/MU game has no bearing on x's seed. They are the 3-seed if Prov loses to the Jays
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03-07-2014, 07:02 PM
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Bubble watch is updated. Pretty much saying we have to win on Saturday and SLU was a huge win. For some reason they think the A10 has a cap on 5 teams so someone is going to get bumped from the A10. I am not sure of the logic there. Unless they got a call from Mack to leave a spot open for them in the conversation because he knows the Big East teams are all better.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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03-07-2014, 07:54 PM
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At this point, I think a only a perfect storm could leave the A-10 with less than, or more than, six bids. Both seem unlikely. Six A-10 teams will dance, final answer.
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03-10-2014, 09:35 AM
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OK, lets do some math, specifically lets dig into some 6th grade algebra and look at Transient properties. Remember them? No? Ok, the transitive property of inequality states that if a>b and b>c then a>c. Of course, we know this doesn't directly apply to basketball (or sports and man other areas of life) since the level of play moves up and down from game to game. Every season we see how podunk you is better than the national champion based upon the transient property of inequality. Its a fun excersize, but nobody buys that Winstom Salem St is better than Duke.
Anyhoo, what if we extend it out a bit, what if a>b, b>c and c> d, e, f, g, h. As we know, its not perfect, but surely you could say that a> than a handful of d, e, f, g or h. Well in this case, UD = a who won at b (Georgia Tech) who won at c (Georgia) just a few days prior to their game with UD and if I look at the SEC bracket, I see Georgia as the 3rd seed ahead of Tennessee (d), Arkansas (e), Ole Miss (f), LSU (g) and Missouri (h).
While were talking about the SEC, lets look past Florida & Kentucky and lets look at their OOC road games. In case you've forgotten, the SEC has expanded to 14 teams, so you've got 12 teams to look at (in other words a pretty good sample size) How many true road games did those 12 teams play (which by the way includes, c, d, e, f, g & h plus a few more listed above)? 14. Yes you read that correctly, 14 or a little over 1 per team. How many of those did they win? 3, including 1 at Coastal Carolina (I assume that is at the charelston Classic or whatever event UD played in a few seasons ago). For those averse to fractions 3/14 = 21.4%. How did UD fair in true road games? 2/3 or 66.6% or to put it another way they almost picked up the same amount of true road wins by themselves as that group of 12 did.
Ok, Ok, Ok, I get it, the SEC is tough, their conference is "hard" they can't risk going on the road because they have to play so many tough road games, yadda, yadda, yadda. Ok, lets look at the season as a whole, and heck, lets look past the SEC and bring everyone else into the field. Lets look at "who you beat". Doesn't matter when, doesn't matter where, "Just win, baby!" (as an aside, lets note that Gonzaga is currently 26th in the rpi, they could be top 25 by tonight, but so could other teams, so we'll go with what we've got today)
Top 25 wins:
Nebraska : 3
Saint Joe: 2
Stanford: 1
SMU: 1
Gonzaga : 0
BYU: 0
Dayton : 2
Tennessee: 1
Pitt: 0
Xavier: 2
Minnesota: 2
Missouri: 0
Providence: 1
Georgetown: 3
Cal: 2
Arkansas: 2
So of all those teams listed in or around the bubble, only 2 have more than UD's (2) top 25 wins despite several of those getting more opportunities on their home court against top 25 teams.
But what about the next level, wins against the top 50?
Nebraska : 0
Saint Joe: 2
Stanford: 3
SMU: 3
Gonzaga : 1
BYU: 3
Dayton : 2
Tennessee: 1
Pitt: 1
Xavier: 1
Minnesota: 1
Missouri: 2
Providence: 1
Georgetown: 2
Cal: 2
Arkansas: 1
So in the 26-50 range, only 1 (Stanford) team has more wins than UD, if you add both together, only 1 (Georgetown) team as more wins vs the top 50 than UD.
Ok, so lets move down to the next level 51-100:
Nebraska : 5
Saint Joe: 2
Stanford: 3
SMU: 0
Gonzaga : 7
BYU: 4
Dayton : 5
Tennessee: 5
Pitt: 5
Xavier: 5
Minnesota: 3
Missouri: 5
Providence: 4
Georgetown: 2
Cal: 4
Arkansas: 5
So again, only 1 team (Gonzaga) has more wins in the 51-100 range.
alright, alright, alright. You're all screaming at me now, its all about the "bad losses". They can't possibly take a team that lost @ Illinois St, @ Rhode Island and home to USC, can they? Well lets dig a little deeper and look at the losses of these teams vs the 100+ range (or teams that won't even make the CBI):
Nebraska : 3
Saint Joe: 1
Stanford: 0
SMU: 2 (including 1 vs 200+)
Gonzaga : 2
BYU: 4
Dayton : 3
Tennessee: 4
Pitt: 0
Xavier: 3
Minnesota: 2
Missouri: 2
Providence: 1
Georgetown: 3 (including 1 vs a 200+ team)
Cal: 1
Arkansas: 2
So it appears that UD sits about squarely in the upper half of "bad losses" amongst 100+ competition, but they certainly are not an outlier in this area. Even better, several of the "no bad losses" teams are also teams without many good wins (I guess that is why they are on the bubble)
Looking at all of that, I can't see how UD can't be a lock at this point. I'll accept the viewpoint that they need to win Thursday to avoid an additional bad loss and put them in amongst the grouping that has 4 and above the teams w/ 3, but beyond that, all this worrying about how the A-10 can't get 6 teams seems that its for not. After looking at all of this, its easy to see why Dancecard has UD safely in the field at this point.
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03-10-2014, 09:51 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Put me down for if we win Thursday, we are in. If we lose, pray for other bubblers losing.
On the other hand, I think St. Joes needs to win Friday.
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03-10-2014, 10:22 AM
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Leaving things to chance scares me, especially with the committees ridiculous favoritism on the BCS conferences. I'd feel much better if we take out STJ, even though we *shouldn't* need to.
Losing Thursday would be a MAJOR problem, so let's start there.
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03-10-2014, 10:48 AM
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Medford, you touched on this briefly, but it bears repeating, the road/neutral games are a very important criteria for the committee, especially in OOC. The Flyers are heads and shoulders above these other so-called bubble teams with a 4-2 record in OOC and a 9-5 record overall. Remember, teams can control who they play and where in the OOC.
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03-10-2014, 10:50 AM
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Last edited by Bill McPeek; 03-10-2014 at 10:53 AM..
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03-10-2014, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford
While were talking about the SEC, lets look past Florida & Kentucky and lets look at their OOC road games. In case you've forgotten, the SEC has expanded to 14 teams, so you've got 12 teams to look at...How many true road games did those 12 teams play? 14. Yes you read that correctly, 14 or a little over 1 per team.
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Which begs the question...knowing that road games are a major factor to earn an at-large bid, why do these BCS team NOT play more road games?
Because their AD's are stupid?
or
Because their AD's know something we don't?
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03-10-2014, 10:57 AM
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So, who's on the bubble?
This is the top 80 from the Dance Card site. We could look at the nitty gritty report for a bunch of different teams and compare road/neutral records, top 25/50/100/500/2000 wins, etc., but the Dance Card has already done that for us - quantitatively and completely objectively.
Assuming complete lack of bias from the committee - which is always at least somewhat uncertain when humans and millions of dollars are in play - and a similar selection methodology as used in previous years - here is how the field should break out:
Of the 32 auto-bid conferences, it appears that 22 of them will be one-bid leagues. Assuming that those 22 conferences are, in fact, one-bid leagues, that leaves 46 bids for the top ten conferences including their auto-bids.
If the Dance Card methodology is completely correct this year, this means the top 47 listed in the Dance Card will get at-large or auto- bids. (Wichita State is in the top 47 and has already secured the auto-bid from the one-bid MVC, so the other top 46 will comprise the 46 teams from the top ten conferences.)
Numbers in parentheses are rankings according to Dance Card methodology. Teams as low as 80 are included, although most from 55-80 have almost zero shot at at-large bids, but are decent teams with a chance to make noise in conference tournaments.
I gave "mortal locks" to ranks 1-30, "should be in" to the next nine, 31-39, "bubble in" to the last eight in (40-47), "bubble out" to the first eight out (48-55), and "Slim left town" to everybody 56-80.
American Athletic Conference:
Mortal locks: Cincinnati (17), Louisville (24), UConn (28).
Should be in: Memphis (35).
Bubble in: SMU (47).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: none.
Atlantic Coast Conference:
Mortal locks: Syracuse (3), Duke (12), North Carolina (19), Virginia (21).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: Pitt (44).
Bubble out: Florida State (53).
Slim left town: North Carolina State (63), Clemson (78), Maryland (79).
Atlantic Ten:
Mortal locks: SLU (13), UMass (18), VCU (29).
Should be in: Dayton (31), GWU (33), SJU (39).
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: Richmond (64).
Big Twelve:
Mortal locks: Kansas (2), Iowa St (9), Oklahoma (11), Texas (20), Baylor (22).
Should be in: Kansas State (34).
Bubble in: Oklahoma State (45).
Bubble out: West Virginia (54).
Slim left town: none.
Big Ten:
Mortal locks: Wisconsin (6), Michigan (7), Michigan State (14), Ohio St (23).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: Iowa (40), Nebraska (41).
Bubble out: Minnesota (49).
Slim left town: Illinois (58), Indiana (76).
Big East:
Mortal locks: Villanova (4), Creighton (8).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: Xavier (43), Georgetown (46).
Bubble out: St. John's (50), Providence (55).
Slim left town: none.
Mountain West:
Mortal locks: San Diego State (16).
Should be in: New Mexico (32).
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: none.
Pac Twelve:
Mortal locks: Arizona (1), UCLA (15), Oregon (25), Arizona State (27), Colorado (30).
Should be in: Stanford (36), California (38).
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: Utah (60), Washington (66), Oregon State (80).
Southeastern:
Mortal locks: Florida (5), Kentucky (26).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: Tennessee (48), Arkansas (51).
Slim left town: Missouri (62), Georgia (70), LSU (73).
West Coast Conference:
Mortal locks: none.
Should be in: Gonzaga (37).
Bubble in: BYU (42).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: St. Mary's (65), San Francisco (74).
Other conferences:
Mortal locks: Wichita State (10 - MVC auto bid), Harvard (56 - Ivy auto bid).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: Southern Miss (52).
Slim left town: North Dakota State (57), Toledo (59), Green Bay (61), MTSU (67), Stephen F. Austin (68), Belmont (69), Ohio (71), Manhattan (72), Louisiana Tech (75), Iona (77).
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03-10-2014, 11:33 AM
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This site is more troubling to me than Lunardi or any other talking heads. Here, they are simulating out the conference tournaments, so they are seeing how likely it is multiple other teams pick up enough good wins to pass us. It doesn't mean we aren't worthy right now - but the BCS teams have more opportunities for signature (top 10) wins that can push them way up the pecking order.
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03-10-2014, 11:41 AM
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A 10 Conference Tournament has 3 teams top 25 (VCU, UMass, SLU)
also a resume builder
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03-10-2014, 11:43 AM
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Oh how I long for the year when we don't have to give a sh*t about any of this in/out; on/off bubble; upsets in league tourneys..... etc, etc, etc.
Just get it done during the season and the only question we need to ask on Selection Sunday....where do we play?
Oh how I looooooooooooooooggggggggggggggg
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03-10-2014, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo
Which begs the question...knowing that road games are a major factor to earn an at-large bid, why do these BCS team NOT play more road games?
Because their AD's are stupid?
or
Because their AD's know something we don't?
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Should ask Alabama and Washington who both won their respective conferences over the past few years and didn't get an invite. The committee chair cited the weak OOC in both cases.
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03-10-2014, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
Which begs the question...knowing that road games are a major factor to earn an at-large bid, why do these BCS team NOT play more road games?
Because their AD's are stupid?
or
Because their AD's know something we don't?
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Most likely, follow the money. Many of those teams spend a small fortune to field football, and despite large TV contracts, they don't all get a huge return on investment, so my guess is that many use their basketball program as another source to squeeze every last nickle out of to help field all the non revenue sports.
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03-10-2014, 12:01 PM
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Bubble watch is updated. Flyers still in the work left to do category, but doesn't give a recipe of an must wins, more of a hint of too many bad losses that are offset by good wins and a late season surge, so the take away is don't get another bad loss. Winning on Friday must be a lock, but it is a must do for St. Joe's. Bubble watch has 34 locks.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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03-10-2014, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66
Oh how I long for the year when we don't have to give a sh*t about any of this in/out; on/off bubble; upsets in league tourneys..... etc, etc, etc.
Just get it done during the season and the only question we need to ask on Selection Sunday....where do we play?
Oh how I looooooooooooooooggggggggggggggg
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Take a look at bracket matrix, and scan across and you will note, every matrix that was updated on the 10th, has us in.
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03-10-2014, 12:15 PM
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I think Nebraska is getting in. If they're not in yet, then they should be if they beat Ohio State, which I think they will do.
I also think that Tim Miles is one of the best coaches in the country. He has turned crap into gold not once, but three times. He was at North Dakota State when they were a transitional team, and won 20+ games. That's unheard of for a transitional team. He is the reason they are one of the best programs in the Summit League. He went to Colorado State, who had finished outside the top 250 four years ago. They were a bubble team his third year, and in the field his fourth year. Now he's at Nebraska, who was all kinds of suck for the longest time, and in just his second year he has them on the brink of the NCAA Tournament, and playing well enough to where they can cause some damage if they do end up getting in.
I also feel that if Tim Miles had been alive during World War II, he would have won the war all by himself.
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03-10-2014, 12:21 PM
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Commander in Chief
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Stainbrook is out for the Gangster vs. Marquette game this week.
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03-10-2014, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
I also feel that if Tim Miles had been alive during World War II, he would have won the war all by himself.
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Tim Miles > Chuck Norris
... ...
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03-10-2014, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Stainbrook is out for the Gangster vs. Marquette game this week.
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I have no access to any medical records, nor have I examed his knee myself (not that I would be qualified). On top of that, I haven't really been reading much about it, but based upon his reaction following the injury, I think the "out for Marquette" is just a smoke screen b/c they don't want to let the selection committee know that he's really done for the season. If you've seen the pictures of him at direction michigan and what he looks like today (not that anyone is throwing dollar bills at him) its obvious he's put in a ton of work to get in relative shape. Sucks for him that he goes down that way right near the end of the season.
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03-10-2014, 12:42 PM
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On that note, if Xavier loses to Marquette, I think they're done.
They weren't in great shape to begin with, and if you're not in great shape, lose a key player, and don't win a single game without him, then you're toast.
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03-10-2014, 03:22 PM
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TeamRankings had the 43rd best bracket last year.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
I would just stick to looking at the bracketmatrix.com if you want accurate predictions.
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03-10-2014, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by KYFlyer
TeamRankings had the 43rd best bracket last year.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
I would just stick to looking at the bracketmatrix.com if you want accurate predictions.
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I wouldn't look at bracketmatrix for a couple of reasons, First, several of the participants haven't been good at updating their brackets and second, several of them are downright ridiculous. It's almost as if some of them haven't been paying attention to the games played. Better, imo, to pick out a handful of those who have a sound methodology and a proven track record.
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03-10-2014, 05:22 PM
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You don't think that strength in numbers outweighs the crappy brackets of the few outliers that clearly are barely trying? I think it is certainly a valid methodology and doesn't warrant outright dismissal.
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03-10-2014, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
You don't think that strength in numbers outweighs the crappy brackets of the few outliers that clearly are barely trying? I think it is certainly a valid methodology and doesn't warrant outright dismissal.
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It's definitely worth looking at. You just need to check each individual bracket's update date and ranking and take it into account, but good for trend data. The fact we are in 76 of 84 brackets is a very good sign.
The best indicator IMHO is still the dance card listed at least once in this thread.
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03-10-2014, 07:30 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
You don't think that strength in numbers outweighs the crappy brackets of the few outliers that clearly are barely trying? I think it is certainly a valid methodology and doesn't warrant outright dismissal.
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They're all just guessing. I think anyone who took the time to learn the process and evaluate the teams could do it just as well as any of them.
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03-10-2014, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
So it appears that UD sits about squarely in the upper half of "bad losses" amongst 100+ competition, but they certainly are not an outlier in this area. Even better, several of the "no bad losses" teams are also teams without many good wins (I guess that is why they are on the bubble)
Looking at all of that, I can't see how UD can't be a lock at this point. I'll accept the viewpoint that they need to win Thursday to avoid an additional bad loss and put them in amongst the grouping that has 4 and above the teams w/ 3, but beyond that, all this worrying about how the A-10 can't get 6 teams seems that its for not. After looking at all of this, its easy to see why Dancecard has UD safely in the field at this point.
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Totally agree with analysis. Win Thursday (I would argue even lose) and we still should be in objectively. What worries me is that the committee generally has strong biases (2012 and 2013 according to dance card were exceptions). So objectively, yes we absolutely are in now, lock if win Thursday, but this is where I hate the "eye-test" and other maddening devices to get more BCS teams in.
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03-10-2014, 08:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Stainbrook is out for the Gangster vs. Marquette game this week.
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He is out until Saturday at the earliest, not a good development for them.
I am guessing that they need to beat Marquette to get in, if you couple a loss to Marquette with Stainbrook being out, then I'd guess that X is not going to make it in. But, I wouldn't say that a loss to Marquette will definitely keep them out.
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03-10-2014, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
He is out until Saturday at the earliest, not a good development for them.
I am guessing that they need to beat Marquette to get in, if you couple a loss to Marquette with Stainbrook being out, then I'd guess that X is not going to make it in. But, I wouldn't say that a loss to Marquette will definitely keep them out.
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I hope you are correct. Bleep 'em, or should I say "zip 'em up"
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03-10-2014, 09:58 PM
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Gonzaga is 20 minutes from knocking St Mary's off the bubble. Anyone know if a neutral court win over #60 St Mary's pulls the Zags back into the RPI top 25?
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03-10-2014, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
Gonzaga is 20 minutes from knocking St Mary's off the bubble. Anyone know if a neutral court win over #60 St Mary's pulls the Zags back into the RPI top 25?
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What I meant to say was preventing St Mary's from stealing a bid from a bubble team.
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03-10-2014, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
Gonzaga is 20 minutes from knocking St Mary's off the bubble. Anyone know if a neutral court win over #60 St Mary's pulls the Zags back into the RPI top 25?
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almost assuredly so, i believe they are 26 right now. need the Dons to beat BYU too. BYU is close to the bubble
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03-10-2014, 10:10 PM
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Considering that they are at 26 right now, I'll go out on a limb and say "yes" they will be top 25 with a win tonight, and probably locked into a top 25 win with another win in their finals. Got finish off the next 20 min to get a shot at part B.
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03-10-2014, 10:10 PM
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Major General
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With 2 more wins, over St. Mary's and BYU, the Zags expected RPI jumps to 15. A split leaves them "around" 25.
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03-11-2014, 09:25 AM
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Colonel
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Updates to the Dance Card through Monday's games:
A "+" means that team improved that number of spots, a "-" is a drop. Bolded teams moved up or down a category.
American Athletic Conference:
Mortal locks: Cincinnati (16, +1), Louisville (24), UConn (28).
Should be in: Memphis (36, -1).
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: SMU (48, -1).
Slim left town: none.
Atlantic Coast Conference:
Mortal locks: Syracuse (4, -1), Duke (12), North Carolina (18, +1), Virginia (20, +1).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: Pitt (44).
Bubble out: Florida State (53).
Slim left town: North Carolina State (61, +2), Clemson (77, +1), Maryland (78, +1).
Atlantic Ten:
Mortal locks: SLU (14, -1), UMass (18), VCU (27, +2).
Should be in: Dayton (31), GWU (33).
Bubble in: SJU (41, -2).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: Richmond (64).
Big Twelve:
Mortal locks: Kansas (2), Oklahoma (10, +1), Iowa State (12, -3), Texas (19, +1), Baylor (22).
Should be in: Kansas State (35, -1).
Bubble in: Oklahoma State (45).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: West Virginia (56, -2).
Big Ten:
Mortal locks: Wisconsin (5, +1), Michigan (7), Michigan State (13, +1), Ohio St (23).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: Iowa (38, +2), Nebraska (44, -2), Minnesota (47, +2).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: Illinois (55, +3), Indiana (74, +2).
Big East:
Mortal locks: Villanova (3, +1), Creighton (8).
Should be in: Xavier (37, +6).
Bubble in: Georgetown (46).
Bubble out: Providence (50, +5), St. John's (51, -1).
Slim left town: Marquette (79, previously not in top 80).
Mountain West:
Mortal locks: San Diego State (16), New Mexico (29, +3).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: none.
Pac Twelve:
Mortal locks: Arizona (1), UCLA (21, -6), Oregon (25), Colorado (30).
Should be in: Arizona State (32, -5).
Bubble in: California (40, -2), Stanford (42, -6).
Bubble out: none.
Slim left town: Utah (65, -5), Washington (68, -2).
Out of top 80: Oregon State (81, -1).
Southeastern:
Mortal locks: Florida (6, -1), Kentucky (26).
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: Tennessee (49, -1), Arkansas (54, -3).
Slim left town: Missouri (63, -1), Georgia (71, -1), LSU (72, +1).
West Coast Conference:
Mortal locks: none.
Should be in: Gonzaga (34, +3), BYU (39, +3).
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: none.
Out with no chance to move up: St. Mary's (66, -1), San Francisco (75, -1).
Other conferences:
Mortal locks: Wichita State (9, +1 - MVC auto bid), Harvard (57, -1 - Ivy auto bid), Manhattan (62, +10 - MAAC auto bid), Mercer (ASun auto bid), Coastal Carolina (Big South auto bid), Delaware (Colonial auto bid), Eastern Kentucky (OVC auto bid), Wofford (Southern auto bid).
Spots reserved for: AmEast auto bid, Big Sky auto bid, Big West auto bid, CUSA auto bid, Horizon auto bid, MAC auto bid, MEAC auto bid, Northeast auto bid, Patriot auto bid, Southland auto bid, Summit auto bid, Sun Belt auto bid, SWAC auto bid, WAC auto bid.
Should be in: none.
Bubble in: none.
Bubble out: Southern Miss (52).
Slim left town: North Dakota State (58, -1), Toledo (59), Green Bay (60, +1), MTSU (67), Stephen F. Austin (69, -1), Louisiana Tech (73, +2), Ohio (76, -5).
Out with no chance to move up: Belmont (70, -1), Iona (80, -3).
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03-11-2014, 10:27 AM
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03-11-2014, 11:21 AM
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Very cool way to look at it. Wasn't sure want you meant at first.
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03-11-2014, 12:08 PM
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From the article:
"The Flyers have a solid RPI (40) and schedule (41)..."
Where did she come up with a SOS of 41 for UD?
realtimerpi, rpiforecast, and udpride all have the UD SOS at 55 or 56.
If the SOS really is 41, then that's obviously a signifcant boost/help/improvement IMO for UD's chances of getting an at large bid.
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03-11-2014, 12:08 PM
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Yahoo's Pat Forde previews a lot of conference tournaments including the A-10's tournament. I think Flyer fans will like what he has to say.
Minutes pick: Dayton (10). Yes, the Flyers will have to win four games in four days to take the title – but nobody is hotter right now. Dayton has won nine of its last 10 games, including victories over each of the top three seeds in this tourney. The hard part could be a quarterfinal game against St. Joseph's, which swept Dayton in the regular season. But the Flyers aren't losing three times to the Hawks.
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03-11-2014, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer Al
Yahoo's Pat Forde previews a lot of conference tournaments including the A-10's tournament. I think Flyer fans will like what he has to say.
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Minutes pick: Dayton (10). Yes, the Flyers will have to win four games in four days to take the title – but nobody is hotter right now. Dayton has won nine of its last 10 games, including victories over each of the top three seeds in this tourney. The hard part could be a quarterfinal game against St. Joseph's, which swept Dayton in the regular season. But the Flyers aren't losing three times to the Hawks.
VCU is the #2 seed, UD did not beat VCU this year. UD beat #1 SLU and #3 GW this year.
UMass is the #6 seed. Maybe he got UMass and VCU mixed up.
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03-11-2014, 03:10 PM
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Another B/R article but I like what this article says and I tend to agree:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...os-out/page/28
the 3 bad losses have been talked about over and over but like this article says, avoid the 4th one on Thursday and that should be enough IMO.
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03-11-2014, 03:43 PM
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You all remember the media bracket selection a few weeks back:
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/03...eals.html?rh=1
Here are a couple exerts:
“These head-to-head comparisons take place, time and again, over five days in the real world. They will generate a significant percentage of the more than 100 votes taken by committee members every March to reach a consensus in assembling the bracket.
……………..
…. the first step taken in the initial selection meeting is to listen to monitors’ reports. They outline which, if any, teams from their respective leagues are worthy of at-large berths in the field without further discussion. They also suggest teams to discuss as potential at-large invitees.
At that juncture, each committee member submits an initial ballot of teams the individual considers deserving of at-large berths or further discussion. Teams that receive all but two eligible votes from the group for at-large inclusion are placed into the field, with seeds determined later. The others slide to an “under consideration” board, where they will be voted on — early and often — in groups of eight, with the top four vote getters advancing on ballots and compared with other groups of four survivors to maximize head-to-head comparisons.”
I thought I read "somewhere" that these first ballots were to take place today……….
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03-11-2014, 04:10 PM
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Are kenpom and sagarin numbers part of the selection criteria? For some reason we aren't doing so well there. Any idea why our numbers there differ so much from RPI?
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03-11-2014, 04:16 PM
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The nitty gritty sheet the committee has only includes RPI related data. Kenpom and sagarin use point differentials and the committee has repeatedly said that margin of victory or defeat is irrelevant. If it were, the Flyers might have been under consideration last year with 7 last minute losses.
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03-11-2014, 04:36 PM
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We are just as good under Sagarin's ELO as we are on the RPI, so it seems that the problem with the computers is that our margins are not that favorable.
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03-11-2014, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Should ask Alabama and Washington who both won their respective conferences over the past few years and didn't get an invite. The committee chair cited the weak OOC in both cases.
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They know they get enough chances for quality road wins in conference.
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03-11-2014, 05:18 PM
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What I found funny lately is this BPI stat that ESPN uses to plug teams that they want in (read state schools that have lots of eyeballs as a fan base). It is an arcane almagamation of stats to derive a power ranking. That a player is hurt for 1 or 2 games is all part of the game.
In the end winning is what matters and winning on the road matters more. That we ONLY beat Fordham by 12 instead of 20 doesn't matter.
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03-12-2014, 07:57 AM
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assumption
Originally Posted by UDDoug
They know they get enough chances for quality road wins in conference.
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That assumes that they play in a quality conference which the SEC has not been in recent years.
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03-12-2014, 08:37 AM
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Nice article about the A10 and it partially explains why teams with otherwise solid resumes get shown with "work left to do." ...and why I only sweat selection Sunday If Dayton goes 0-1 in Brooklyn (and even then, still think they're ok).
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...spread-respect
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03-12-2014, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug
They know they get enough chances for quality road wins in conference.
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But it didn't work for these teams. You better do something in the OOC.
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03-12-2014, 12:19 PM
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Looking at the numbers on the Dance Card... the "bubble" is actually very small according to them:
Oklahoma State (in)
Minnesota (in)
Georgetown (in)
SMU (out)
Tennessee (out)
That's it. The Dance Card number indicates that everyone else is either comfortably in or clearly out. That's if the season ended today, though. Not sure how much that number changes from game to game.
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03-12-2014, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow
Looking at the numbers on the Dance Card... the "bubble" is actually very small according to them:
Oklahoma State (in)
Minnesota (in)
Georgetown (in)
SMU (out)
Tennessee (out)
That's it. The Dance Card number indicates that everyone else is either comfortably in or clearly out. That's if the season ended today, though. Not sure how much that number changes from game to game.
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There will be very few changes now. Remember, we have already played 90-95% of the entire season. One or two games will have little impact, maybe one or two seeds either way.
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03-12-2014, 01:52 PM
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I have a question about Lunardi's last bracket (3/10). He has his Last Four In as Arkansas, Dayton, St. Joe's, Tennessee, with UD/Arkansas as 12 seed play-in and SJU/UT as 11 seed play in. Yet he has BYU as a 12 seed, only they're not mentioned as a team receiving one of his Last Four Byes. I'm just a little confused.
If his last 4 Byes are Pitt(10), Stanford(10), Nebraska(11) and Xavier(11), how can BYU be receiving an at-large as a 12 seed seemingly NOT be behind those last 4 byes? BYU didn't win their regular season, so they're not taking an automatic spot in his last bracket. And I understand that teams move seed lines due to rematches and (can't play on Sunday) what not, but I would be surprised if they were moving a full two seed lines (from a 10 to 12).
Thoughts? My apologies if this has been pointed out or discussed already in this thread or another.
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03-12-2014, 01:58 PM
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As you said, BYU does not play on Sunday. The committee honors this, but they will penalize in seeding if necessary to meet this request. I didn't bother to look up the specifics, but I do remember a few years ago BYU was moved down two seed lines to make sure they didn't play on Sunday.
I would assume this is why BYU is not last 4 in but is a 12 seed in Lunardi's bracket.
Edit: According to Jerry Palm, in 2012 BYU was dropped 2 seed lines and was an at-large team as a 14 seed.
Last edited by shapanud; 03-12-2014 at 02:10 PM..
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03-12-2014, 03:51 PM
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Another B/R from Kerry Miller, obviously this is just one guy's opinion, but he has the Flyers a 9 seed:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...r-all-68-teams
I really do think that most people are not overlooking UD at this point. In fact I think we fall to most people's 9-11 seed which really is not that close to the bubble, similar to what we see from Dance Card. Aside from Lunardi, there has been more brackets that predict UD to be solidly in the field at this point rather than on the bubble line. Trust me, all this talk means something, if a lot of people see it then the selection committee does too. Assuming a win tomorrow and a even with a loss on Friday, I am very confident that we are all going to be surprised on Selection Sunday when the Flyers receive a 10 seed.
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03-12-2014, 04:03 PM
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This is something I have been saying. If we win a couple in the A-10 tourney we are an 8-9 seed. A loss and we are probably a 10. All the analytic models that have been right on have us in the 8-9 range right now.
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03-12-2014, 04:32 PM
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CBS Sports has Nebraska, St Joe's, Stanford, and SMU ahead of us.
Top 25 wins / %:
Dayton 3 / .600
Nebraska 3 / .333
SJU 2 / .333
SMU 1 / .200
Stanford 0 / .000
Top 50 wins / %:
Dayton 4 / .444
SJU 4 / .444
Stanford 4 / .333
SMU 4 / .444
Nebraska 3 / .300
Bad (100+) Losses:
Stanford 0
SJU 1
SMU 2 (including one 200+)
Dayton 3
Nebraska 3
Road/neutral record:
SJU 10-5
Dayton 9-5
SMU 8-7
Stanford 7-7
Nebraska 4-10
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