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  #401  
Old 03-12-2014, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
This is something I have been saying. If we win a couple in the A-10 tourney we are an 8-9 seed. A loss and we are probably a 10. All the analytic models that have been right on have us in the 8-9 range right now.
An 8 seed would be the 2nd best seed ever for UD. OP's 2003 team got a 4 seed. I think that would be a very noteworthy accomplishment in itself.
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  #402  
Old 03-12-2014, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
An 8 seed would be the 2nd best seed ever for UD. OP's 2003 team got a 4 seed. I think that would be a very noteworthy accomplishment in itself.
were we a 12 or 13 seed in 1984?
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  #403  
Old 03-12-2014, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
were we a 12 or 13 seed in 1984?
We were a 10 seed. There were 53 teams in the tournament that year. Teams 44-53 had to play an Opening Round game while the top four teams in each region got a bye.
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  #404  
Old 03-12-2014, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
An 8 seed would be the 2nd best seed ever for UD. OP's 2003 team got a 4 seed. I think that would be a very noteworthy accomplishment in itself.
You are correct, but remember that the NCAA didn't start seeding until 1979. During the 60s and early 70s there were between 22-25 teams in the tournament so, at a minimum, Dayton would have been at least a 6th seed several times.
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  #405  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:19 PM
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Dance Card ranks through Tuesday's games. The 68-team field will consist of 45 of these teams, barring surprise tournament winners, plus the 23 auto bids listed at the bottom:

Top Twenty Five - Mortal Locks

1 Arizona
2 Kansas
3 Wisconsin
4 Syracuse
5 Villanova
6 Florida
7 Michigan
8 Iowa St.
10 Creighton
11 Michigan St.
12 Oklahoma
13 Saint Louis
14 Duke
15 San Diego St.
16 Cincinnati
17 North Carolina
18 Massachusetts
19 Texas
20 Virginia
21 UCLA
22 Baylor
23 Ohio St.
24 Louisville
25 Oregon
26 Connecticut

The Next Twelve - Looking Good

27 VCU March 14 vs. TBD, A10 QF
28 Kentucky March 14 vs. TBD, SEC QF
29 Arizona St. March 13 vs. TBD, P12 QF
31 Colorado March 13 vs. (4) California, P12 QF
32 New Mexico March 13 vs. (7) Fresno State, MWC QF
33 Dayton March 13 vs. (13) Fordham, A10 Second Round
34 George Washington March 14 vs. TBD, A10 QF
35 Kansas St. March 13 vs. (4) Iowa State, B12 QF
36 Memphis March 13 vs. (4) UConn, AAC QF
37 California March 13 vs. (5) Colorado, P12 QF
38 Pittsburgh March 13 vs. (12) Wake Forest, ACC Second Round
39 Saint Joseph's March 14 vs. TBD, A10 QF

The Bubble In Eight

40 Iowa March 13 vs. (11) Northwestern, B1G First Round
41 Stanford March 12 vs. (11) Washington State, P12 First Round
42 Nebraska March 14 vs. TBD, B1G QF
43 BYU Waiting and watching
44 Xavier March 13 vs. (6) Marquette, BE QF
45 Oklahoma St. def (9) Texas Tech. March 13 vs. (1) Kansas, B12 QF
46 Minnesota March 13 vs. (10) Penn State, B1G First Round
47 Georgetown March 12 vs. (10) DePaul

The Bubble Out Eight

48 SMU March 13 vs. (6) Houston, AAC QF
49 Tennessee March 14 vs. TBD, SEC QF
50 Southern Miss March 13 vs. (5) UTEP, CUSA QF
52 Florida St. March 13 vs. (8) Maryland, ACC Second Round
53 West Virginia March 13 vs. (3) Texas, B12 QF
54 Arkansas March 13 vs. (13) South Carolina, SEC Second Round
55 Illinois March 13 vs. (8) Indiana, B1G First Round
56 Providence March 13 vs. (5) St. John's, BE QF

In Trouble but still alive in conference

57 St. John's March 13 vs. (4) Providence, BE QF
59 Toledo March 14 vs. TBD, MAC SF
61 North Carolina St. March 13 vs. (10) Miami, ACC Second Round
63 Missouri March 13 vs. (9) Texas A&M, SEC Second Round
64 Richmond March 13 vs. (10) Duquesne, A10 Second Round
66 Stephen F. Austin March 14 vs. TBD, Southland SF
67 Utah def. Washington, March 13 vs. (1) Arizona, P12 QF
68 Middle Tennessee March 13 vs. (6) ODU, CUSA QF
71 Georgia March 14 vs. TBD, SEC QF
72 LSU March 13 vs. (10) Alabama, SEC Second Round
73 Indiana March 13 vs. (9) Illinois, B1G First Round
74 Louisiana Tech March 13 vs. TBD, CUSA QF
76 Clemson March 13 vs. (11) Georgia Tech, ACC Second Round
77 Maryland March 13 vs. (9) Florida State, ACC Second Round
78 Ohio March 13 vs. (4) Akron, MAC SF
79 Marquette March 13 vs. (3) Xavier, BE QF

Out of conference tournament and praying for a gift

60 Green Bay

Fork stuck firmly in posterior

65 Saint Mary's
69 Washington
70 Belmont
75 San Francisco
80 Iona

Plus these 23 auto bids:

9 @Wichita St. MVC auto bid
30 @Gonzaga WCC auto bid
51 @North Dakota St. Summit auto bid
58 @Harvard Ivy auto bid
62 @Manhattan MAAC auto bid
85 @Delaware Colonial auto bid
93 @Mercer Atlantic Sun auto bid
107 @Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley auto bid
128 @Milwaukee Horizon auto bid
159 @Wofford Southern auto bid
182 @Coastal Carolina Big South auto bid
202 @Mount St. Mary's Northeast auto bid

Am East auto bid
Big Sky auto bid
Big West auto bid
CUSA auto bid
MAC auto bid
MEAC auto bid
Patriot auto bid
Southland auto bid
Sun Belt auto bid
SWAC auto bid
WAC auto bid
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  #406  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:33 PM
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Eat it Hoyas.
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  #407  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:33 PM
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Please OP finish the job!!!!

Depaul up 8 under 4 on Georgetown.
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  #408  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:52 PM
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Hoyas go down!!!!
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  #409  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:52 PM
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Depaul was awful, but, they were 4 points better than Georgetown! Big win for OP. Makes Mack look even dumber, if that's possible.
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  #410  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by IndianaFlyer View Post
Depaul was awful, but, they were 4 points better than Georgetown! Big win for OP. Makes Mack look even dumber, if that's possible.
The Hoyas may have to sweat it out on selection Sunday.
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  #411  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:57 PM
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C Mack

Originally Posted by IndianaFlyer View Post
Depaul was awful, but, they were 4 points better than Georgetown! Big win for OP. Makes Mack look even dumber, if that's possible.
Maybe he meant that Georgetown is nowhere NEAR capable of competing in the A-10, "and it's not even close"????? Regardless, he sure does look like even more of a jackass than he already is/was/always will be.

Way to go CMack, way to go. LOL
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  #412  
Old 03-12-2014, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dnutz77 View Post
Maybe he meant that Georgetown is nowhere NEAR capable of competing in the A-10, "and it's not even close"????? Regardless, he sure does look like even more of a jackass than he already is/was/always will be.

Way to go CMack, way to go. LOL
Way to go OP!
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  #413  
Old 03-13-2014, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
The Hoyas may have to sweat it out on selection Sunday.
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I'm thinking they'll die of dehydration before then.
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  #414  
Old 03-13-2014, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
I'm thinking they'll die of dehydration before then.
Hey, they pass the eye test. Ya never know.

Really, my first comment was sarcasm, but I can't find the emoticons on my phone.
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  #415  
Old 03-13-2014, 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by IndianaFlyer View Post
Depaul was awful, but, they were 4 points better than Georgetown! Big win for OP. Makes Mack look even dumber, if that's possible.
So would Mack now say that DePaul would win the A10.
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  #416  
Old 03-13-2014, 12:55 AM
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Georgetown's obit:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...ents-kick-off/
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  #417  
Old 03-13-2014, 01:06 AM
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Wow, even that article written after the DePaul game is taking a wait and see attitude. They see G'Town as still "on the bubble" but looking in.

Amazing!

But then, they know how powerful the eye test can be.
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  #418  
Old 03-13-2014, 01:37 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
The Hoyas may have to sweat it out on selection Sunday.
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sweat out what? an NIT bid? they are toast
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  #419  
Old 03-13-2014, 02:50 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
sweat out what? an NIT bid? they are toast
I know, I know......I was being sarcastic.

Still, they only have 14 losses and they pass the eye test.
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  #420  
Old 03-13-2014, 03:00 AM
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Never too late to justify Hoyas in field just by looking at a handful of their wins. I don't agree with that per-se, but I can just see it and hear it now, "well, Georgetown had a number of key and high profile victories, and the Big East will always be one of the top conferences in the nation".........blah, blah, blah....then they win three NCAA Tourney games, and naturally then it will all be justified. Meanwhile some other truly worthy school is left with mouth hanging and glazed over-look after being left off the invite list. Freaking Crazy!!!
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  #421  
Old 03-13-2014, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
Wow, even that article written after the DePaul game is taking a wait and see attitude. They see G'Town as still "on the bubble" but looking in.

Amazing!

But then, they know how powerful the eye test can be.
If G-Town isn't in the BE, no one is giving them a shot. I don't buy the conference doesn't matter argument. GTown SHOULD be in trouble, but the media refuses to let that happen due to conference affiliation.
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  #422  
Old 03-13-2014, 07:36 AM
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G-Town's resume is not even NIT worthy!
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  #423  
Old 03-13-2014, 07:38 AM
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CBS sports took Georgetown completely off their bubble list. They are toast.
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  #424  
Old 03-13-2014, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
CBS sports took Georgetown completely off their bubble list. They are toast.
Wait , but didn't a Patrick Ewing led Georgetown win it all in 1984? That HAS to be worth something...
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  #425  
Old 03-13-2014, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
The Hoyas may have to sweat it out on selection Sunday.
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They are done. I don't think they should have been in the conversation from the beginning. Losing record in that league isn't good at all this year. I want to know what Chris Mack is thinking now...
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  #426  
Old 03-13-2014, 08:49 AM
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I don't believe thecommittee will give them a sniff. however, these pundits all work for networks that pay a lot of money for tv rights to some of these conferences. it is in their best interest to continue to prop up the "haves" in college sports because they are the horses with the most money riding on them.
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:29 AM
TerryK_67 TerryK_67 is offline
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Originally Posted by AC91 View Post
I don't believe thecommittee will give them a sniff. however, these pundits all work for networks that pay a lot of money for tv rights to some of these conferences. it is in their best interest to continue to prop up the "haves" in college sports because they are the horses with the most money riding on them.
Interesting comment AC91…. I wonder if ESPN is gonna throw the whole New Big Least under the bus, or just ignore them (which almost amounts to the same thing)? If the school down south loses today to Marquette and still gets in, then the “good old boy” system is alive and well. If they don’t get in, then it just may be dead…..
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
Interesting comment AC91…. I wonder if ESPN is gonna throw the whole New Big Least under the bus, or just ignore them (which almost amounts to the same thing)? If the school down south loses today to Marquette and still gets in, then the “good old boy” system is alive and well. If they don’t get in, then it just may be dead…..
I was thinking about this last night. eSPN ran a bunch of promos for its new 30/30 documentary about the Big east and SC had a segment on that multiOT game between UConn and Syracuse - even had Calhoun on to talk about it. I'm interested in seeing what this documentary focuses on, but all of it sure had a nostalgic feeling rather than a current one.
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
I know, I know......I was being sarcastic.

Still, they only have 14 losses and they pass the eye test.
I see what you did there.

In the words of Sheldon Cooper, "Sarcasm?"
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
Interesting comment AC91…. I wonder if ESPN is gonna throw the whole New Big Least under the bus, or just ignore them (which almost amounts to the same thing)? If the school down south loses today to Marquette and still gets in, then the “good old boy” system is alive and well. If they don’t get in, then it just may be dead…..
I don't think X is in the 'good old boy' club yet. They might be in the conference, but not the club...
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:59 AM
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Georgetown only dropped 2 lines on the DanceCard. But they were the 2 lines that pushed them out of the tournament.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 03-13-2014, 10:04 AM
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What is Chris Mack thinking now? Simple, his new perspective is based on how good DePaul is, and that in any typical league, unlike the big-time NBE, DePaul would be NIT/NCAA caliber.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:00 AM
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Even though I think Georgetown has no chance, and really didn't before they lost last night, they only dropped 3 places on the Dancecard. Again, it's really difficult to drop or gain more than a few spots based upon one game. The Flyers are currently 31 and I don't really see them dropping or gaining more than 4 spots, regardless of what happens this week, unless they beat both St Joes and Slu.
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Old 03-13-2014, 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
What is Chris Mack thinking now? Simple, his new perspective is based on how good DePaul is, and that in any typical league, unlike the big-time NBE, DePaul would be NIT/NCAA caliber.
Big East tournament.......Let's see.....Nova and G'Town ........done. DePaul and Seton Hall alive......Say it ain't so! Marquette left to uphold the "Arrogant Three". However, I want them to beat the Mousketeers!

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Old 03-13-2014, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill McPeek View Post
Big East tournament.......Let's see.....Nova and G'Town ........done. DePaul and Seton Hall alive......Say it ain't so! Marquette left to uphold the "Arrogant three". However, i want them to beat the Mousketeers!
yessir B McPeek. The Warriors can lose another day. We dont root for -avier. EVER
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Old 03-13-2014, 06:28 PM
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Scary thought on the BE Tourney. With Nova out we really need Creighton to step up and win the thing. Otherwise a Providence or an X can play themselves off the bubble by winning the auto bid. Or even worse, Marquette or Seton Hall could steal the auto bid and Providence or X could still slip in as well.
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Old 03-13-2014, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
Scary thought on the BE Tourney. With Nova out we really need Creighton to step up and win the thing. Otherwise a Providence or an X can play themselves off the bubble by winning the auto bid. Or even worse, Marquette or Seton Hall could steal the auto bid and Providence or X could still slip in as well.
It's a shame that the lower leagues like the New Big East can steal bids due to their own incompetence.
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Old 03-13-2014, 06:49 PM
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Sorry if this has been posted, but this guy kinda contradicts himself more than once on Rantsports:

http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-baske...-bubble-watch/
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill McPeek View Post
Big East tournament.......Let's see.....Nova and G'Town ........done. DePaul and Seton Hall alive......Say it ain't so! Marquette left to uphold the "Arrogant Three". However, I want them to beat the Mousketeers!
About that last comment - agreed. X is 3 slots in per Dance Card. Marquette, by contrast, would be @ a 6-seed...in the NIT. Nowhere near the cut line for the NCAA, and a win over X won't change that.
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:19 PM
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Updated Bubble watch

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

They actually said we may be underrated in many brackets?
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:25 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
Updated Bubble watch

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

They actually said we may be underrated in many brackets?
they are one of them. they got us in the first four
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:31 PM
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Seton Hall jumped from 150 to 123 in the RPI with their win. Yuck.
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Seton Hall jumped from 150 to 123 in the RPI with their win. Yuck.
They need to lose tomorrow, so X will hold onto 2 sub-100 losses.
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:38 PM
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beating Providence wont move them under 100
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:39 PM
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the Arkansas loss is big and so is the Cal loss.
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
they are one of them. they got us in the first four
Yeah, funny how the A10 Conference Tourney's 6-seed is a mortal lock but the 4 & 5 seeds are on the bubble...?

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Old 03-13-2014, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
beating Providence wont move them under 100
No, but it keeps them alive, and if they'd somehow wind-up beating Creighton down the line, that could do it.
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Old 03-13-2014, 07:47 PM
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agreed. hopefully the Friars end that problem tomorrow
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Even though I think Georgetown has no chance, and really didn't before they lost last night, they only dropped 3 places on the Dancecard. Again, it's really difficult to drop or gain more than a few spots based upon one game. The Flyers are currently 31 and I don't really see them dropping or gaining more than 4 spots, regardless of what happens this week, unless they beat both St Joes and Slu.
One more time, i must say, GEORGETOWN?????

not ever, especially not now.
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Old 03-13-2014, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Yeah, funny how the A10 Conference Tourney's 6-seed is a mortal lock but the 4 & 5 seeds are on the bubble...?

And that 6 seed was earned with home and home's with RI and SB while our 5 seed was earned with home and homes with better teams. Yet they are an 8 seed and we are last 4 in. And we are last 4 in with SJ which means according to Retardi our game tomorrow is basically a play in game. Yet X is safely in and other sites have us as high as an 8 seed. While we all know Retardi is the worst out there my fear is that this one time he is right.
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Old 03-13-2014, 10:01 PM
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He is not right.
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Old 03-13-2014, 10:19 PM
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Wow - Dance Card is on the money. We are a lock. Look at previous years. This year is a bit of an anomaly. The bubble is very, very clear this year. In previous years, there were clumps of teams between -2 and 2. This year, there are very few like that. No team with a Dance Card rating above 3 has EVER been left out of the tournament. Ours is above 10.

In fact, St Joe's is pretty much a lock, too.

Xavier is nearly a lock now, too. Even if they lose to Marquette, there probably aren't enough teams left to overtake them. Xavier might drop 'closer' to the cut line, but even with a loss they're still going to be above 2 on their Dance Card score. And SMU is dropping, too, so Xavier has a buffer there. Two teams below the cutline would have to pass them, and Tennesee is the only one within easy striking distance. Anyone else would probably need a run to the finals plus maybe a huge win over a top 25 team. So Xavier's only fear is a loss today coupled with true stolen bids: unexpected teams winning the auto-bids. And that would probably have to happen twice before Xavier is knocked out - even if they lose today. I just went from rooting against stolen bids to rooting for stolen bids.
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  #453  
Old 03-13-2014, 10:35 PM
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I'm good with x getting in the first four. I may be interested in attending to help give them a true road game experience with other Dayton fans.
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  #454  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:04 PM
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Texas embarrassing West Virginia. 49-22.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:07 PM
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Southern Miss is still alive in Conference USA. They could surprise and get a bid based on the Dance Card. They're #2 past the cutline after Tennessee. A good run in their tournament might get them in if things fall right for them.
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  #456  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Texas embarrassing West Virginia. 49-22.
And our former point guard is leading the charge at the Alamo with a 1-10 performance.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
They need to lose tomorrow, so X will hold onto 2 sub-100 losses.
The losses are already baked in the cake. The committee has already voted on most of the teams resumes.
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  #458  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:17 PM
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No wonder Lunardi's projections are so off. He's using the wrong numbers:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty

The SOS is wrong for just about everybody. He has one of our road games listed as neutral. (Did we play a semi-away game this year?)
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  #459  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:21 PM
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I think the Duquesne game was neutral. We played at the Consol Center, not their gym.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I think the Duquesne game was neutral. We played at the Consol Center, not their gym.
That is considered a home game for the Dukes. They have played several games there and are usually where they play when they have a big home game.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:28 PM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168

Clearly states Neutral Site for the Duquesne game. I had friends there and I remember them mentioning this when we played there.
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  #462  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:29 PM
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CBS has it as a a home game for the Dukes
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:29 PM
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Iowa goes down to 14-18 Northwestern.

SMU goes down to 17-15 Houston.

While both these teams seem to be well off the right side of the bubble, could their ignominious departure from conference tourneys put them back on the bubble?
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  #464  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168

Clearly states Neutral Site for the Duquesne game. I had friends there and I remember them mentioning this when we played there.
I know it says that, but it is not correct. I am pretty sure you cannot play a league game at a neutral site. This is no different than Nova playing games at the 76ers arena and their campus arena. I believe UConn does this as well.

Last edited by m21eagle45; 03-13-2014 at 11:34 PM..
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  #465  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:32 PM
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SMU is the last team above the cutline at Dance Card. They're "ranked" but look at their numbers. They're pretty comparable to our numbers except they don't have our good wins.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168

Clearly states Neutral Site for the Duquesne game. I had friends there and I remember them mentioning this when we played there.
Neutral, schmootral. The game was played in downtown Pittsburgh, a block and a half from their on-campus gym.

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Old 03-13-2014, 11:33 PM
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His question was why Lunardi the Great has numbers reflecting a neutral game win that he could not pin down. If it was in their small ****ty gym, maybe we dont win that game? Who the hell knows. Ill take it road or neutral.
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:37 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I think the Duquesne game was neutral. We played at the Consol Center, not their gym.
Maybe they were thinking that, since Flyer fans almost outnumbered Dukes fans (and were probably louder), it couldn't possibly have been a Duquesne home game?
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  #469  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:42 PM
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Iowa is 4-8 in their last 12 games, RPI of 52 (sure to drop after losing to #138 Northwestern). How is that a lock?
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  #470  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
Iowa is 4-8 in their last 12 games, RPI of 52 (sure to drop after losing to #138 Northwestern). How is that a lock?
Because there aren't enough other teams that are better. Take Tennessee instead?
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Old 03-13-2014, 11:58 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Because there aren't enough other teams that are better. Take Tennessee instead?
Heck, I'd rather see Wisc-Green Bay instead of Iowa.
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  #472  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:59 PM
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The NCAA uses udpride as one of three sites to double check their rpi numbers, espn is not one of the other two; I'll trust whatever Chris has in the rpi
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  #473  
Old 03-13-2014, 11:59 PM
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For as much as Lunardi disagrees with Dance Card on Dayton (basically #45 according to Lunardi but #31 according to Dance Card), they only disagree on two picks as of this morning.

Tennessee: Lunardi says easily in. Dance Card says first one out.
Providence: Lunardi says last one in. Dance Card says clearly out.
California: Lunardi says first one out. Dance Card says easily in.
Minnesota: Lunardi says second one out. Dance Card says barely in. (So they pretty much agree here.)

On the in/out question, they agree on everybody else. This appears to be a pretty easy year to call the brackets.
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  #474  
Old 03-14-2014, 12:01 AM
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If we end up losing to SJU, what would our RPI be? 42 or so? From a pure stats perspective does that still project us well? From a committee standpoint... we would be 23-10 with an RPI of, 42?
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  #475  
Old 03-14-2014, 12:26 AM
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I refuse to accept the possibility that we lose to the Hawks three times this year. We are just playing too well. I think we very well may be favorites to win the whole darn thing at this point. If we do, I hope we can be better than an 8 seed, I don't want be faced with a #1 seed in the 2nd round to advance to the Sweet 16. This is the year we make it to the second weekend, feel it in my bones
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  #476  
Old 03-14-2014, 12:40 AM
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Maybe we can hit the 7 or 10 seed and draw Villanova for round 2.
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:26 AM
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Wink History Lesson...Wow!

Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
And our former point guard is leading the charge at the Alamo with a 1-10 performance.
Wow, I didn't know a former UD point-guard fought at the Alamo. Who says you cannot learn things on UDPRIDE? Give me Price and Scooch over mr. mountaineer any-day.
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  #478  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:39 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
That is considered a home game for the Dukes. They have played several games there and are usually where they play when they have a big home game.
Exactly, this is why Lunardi is a joke. Please do not rely on hos judgement.
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Old 03-14-2014, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
For as much as Lunardi disagrees with Dance Card on Dayton (basically #45 according to Lunardi but #31 according to Dance Card), they only disagree on two picks as of this morning.

Tennessee: Lunardi says easily in. Dance Card says first one out.
Providence: Lunardi says last one in. Dance Card says clearly out.
California: Lunardi says first one out. Dance Card says easily in.
Minnesota: Lunardi says second one out. Dance Card says barely in. (So they pretty much agree here.)

On the in/out question, they agree on everybody else. This appears to be a pretty easy year to call the brackets.
It's not so much the actual picks, heck anyone can get 65 correct, it's the seeding where Lunardi is generally weak.
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Old 03-14-2014, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
It's not so much the actual picks, heck anyone can get 65 correct, it's the seeding where Lunardi is generally weak.
BINGO. That's why it really doesn't matter how close to the cut line he has UD... as long as he has them in, he can still say "I correctly predicted the field of 68!" Even if his predictions of seeds are horribly inaccurate.

Dayton will be no worse than a 10, even if they lose today. They are not near the cut line at all.
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Old 03-14-2014, 09:19 AM
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...y/bubble-watch

For whatever its worth, cbssports has moved Saint Joes from "probably in" to off the bubble watch (presumably a lock) while also moving UD from "on the fence" to "probably in".

SMU fell from "Probably in" to "on the fence" while Iowa has fallen from no mention to "probably in" after losing 6 of their last 7.
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Old 03-14-2014, 09:28 AM
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http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

They have UD at 75% in and most likely a 9 seed at 14.8%
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Old 03-14-2014, 09:38 AM
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Out of the 102 brackets listed on Bracket Matrix, we are in 100 of them... 1 of the other 2 just added us this morning, and the other one looks like a geocities page, so I am not taking him seriously.

We are about 7 teams from the cut line.
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Old 03-14-2014, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud View Post
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

They have UD at 75% in and most likely a 9 seed at 14.8%
Hard to take that site seriously when they say we could make the finals of the A10 tournament and still have a 15% chance of being left out of the NCAA tournament.
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  #485  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Wow, I didn't know a former UD point-guard fought at the Alamo. Who says you cannot learn things on UDPRIDE? Give me Price and Scooch over mr. mountaineer any-day.
I promised myself i would never say his name again, but where putting a Flyer uniform on and being our "Floor General" is concerned, Juwan Staten couldn't carry Ramod Marshall,Edwin Young or Brian Roberts jock strap
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  #486  
Old 03-14-2014, 11:36 AM
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Who is this Juwan Staten guy? I've already forgotten...
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  #487  
Old 03-14-2014, 12:18 PM
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9 spots for 13 teams...

Here's a quick summary of today's Bubble games:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...-14/?eref=sihp
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  #488  
Old 03-14-2014, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Here's a quick summary of today's Bubble games:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...-14/?eref=sihp
13 teams for 9 slots? They're just trying play up the bubble for the sake of drama.

They still list Arkansas, who is out and is out of their tournament. No chance.

They list Dayton, Xavier, Stanford and Nebraska, who are all locks.

They list BYU, SJU, and Pittsburgh who are all but locks (barring an unprecedented number of stolen bids or if ALL of the below make deep runs).


That means it's really 5 teams vying for 2 slots:
Florida State
Providence
Minnesota
Tennessee
Missouri

Last edited by FlyingArrow; 03-14-2014 at 01:54 PM.. Reason: Updated the count.
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Old 03-14-2014, 12:58 PM
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I still dont buy Pitt as a lock. If im the commitee i send SMU,Pitt,Tennessee and Iowa to Dayton
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
I still dont buy Pitt as a lock. If im the commitee i send SMU,Pitt,Tennessee and Iowa to Dayton

Could be, but there are so few teams that can overtake them that even if they wind up in the First Four they still aren't likely to get bounced entirely (barring a miraculous number of stolen auto-bids).
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Old 03-14-2014, 02:32 PM
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I wish I was a as confident as those of you that are certain we are in. I really think we need to win today or else we play away in the first round of the NIT even though we are the higher seed.
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Old 03-14-2014, 03:04 PM
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Missouri and FSU losing is a good thing
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Old 03-14-2014, 03:19 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Dayton's current standing in the Dance Card: 30.
Let's assume that the committee views following additional teams ahead of Dayton (even though they're lower on the Dance Card):
Colorado
Gonzaga
GW
Stanford
Memphis
Kansas State
Arizona State
Nebraska
OK State

That puts 38 teams ahead of us. (And I'm being generous putting all of them ahead of us.)

There are 36 at-large plus 6 BCS plus BE, A10, WCC, MVC, MWC in the mix at the top. That's 47 bids total from potential multi-bid conferences. The other 21 bids are the 1-bid leagues.

How many of those 47 bids could be stolen? Potential true bid-stealers (winning the auto-bid when they aren't even on the bubble):
AAC: Houston
ACC: NC State, Clemson
A10: St Bona, Richmond
Big East: Seton Hall
Big 10: Northwestern
Big 12: none
MWC: UNLV, Boise State
PAC 12: none
SEC: South Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia

Worst case: 7 stolen bids

That leaves 40 bids remaining. We would be sitting at slot #39.

Who is still alive in their own tournament that could conceivably pass us?

St Joe
Pittsburgh
Xavier
Tennessee
Minnesota
Southern Miss... can't pass us but could get a bid. Our advantage is too much.
Providence... can't pass us but could steal the auto-bid. Beating Seton Hall isn't enough to pass us on the bubble.

That's it. If they all make deep runs but don't win their tournaments (so a bid can be stolen), we can be left out. In fact, those 5 teams could pass us leaving us at slot #44 when the cutline is after slot #40.

But look at what has to happen for us to be left out. We would have to see 7 of these 12 events - and this is assuming that all 9 of the other teams listed above are actually above us even though they are below us on the Dance Card:
* Stolen bids (7 potential stolen bids... unlikely to see more than 2)
* SJU beats us
* Xavier beats Creighton
* Pittsburgh beats UNC
* Tennessee beats Florida
* Minnesota beats Wisconsin

(Not sure all those teams would pass us anyway even if they do earn those wins.)

Last edited by FlyingArrow; 03-14-2014 at 03:40 PM..
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  #494  
Old 03-14-2014, 04:34 PM
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99% certain Lunardi will drop us to First 4 Out after the loss, because that's what he does.
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Old 03-14-2014, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
99% certain Lunardi will drop us to First 4 Out after the loss, because that's what he does.
Lunardi, along with the refs, can suck it.
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Old 03-14-2014, 04:37 PM
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I wish I could be as optimistic as some of you, but today's loss scares me.

On that note, refs, a college player getting chucked 5' is a push EVERY TIME.
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Old 03-14-2014, 04:43 PM
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It's going to be a razor thin if UD gets in. I think the resume is good enough, but as a worrier I am afraid we are one win short. I know all the computer models look good, but they don't actually make the decision.
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Old 03-14-2014, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by JimBo View Post
Lunardi, along with the refs, can suck it.
Lunardi is an idiot and he's not on the committee. The Flyers are in comfortably and were already selected earlier this week imo.
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Old 03-14-2014, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Lunardi is an idiot and he's not on the committee. The Flyers are in comfortably and were already selected earlier this week imo.
A lot can happen in the next two days. I doubt there is a single soul in Flyer Nation who won't be sweating it out on Sunday.
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Old 03-14-2014, 05:20 PM
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We'll know before Sunday if we're in. I just did the math above.

Pitt beats UNC.
SJU beats Dayton.

So those 2 happened. But we're totally safe unless at least 5 of these also happen:
* Stolen bids. Only 7 are possible, and 3 of those hinge on Seton Hall, Northwestern, and Houston.
* Xavier beats Creighton
* Tennessee beats Florida
* Minnesota beats Wisconsin

If 5 of those happen then we can start to worry. I don't think 5 of those are going to happen and even if they do I think we're still safe.
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