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  #301  
Old 02-12-2016, 03:13 PM
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Love that Mock.

The A10 gets 5 teams in and none of them are in the East bracket.
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  #302  
Old 02-12-2016, 03:27 PM
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Dang. Rooting for a home game at Providence.
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  #303  
Old 02-12-2016, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Current #61/projected #73 Temple getting an at large bid is surprising to me.

Four Top 50 wins. That's where it's at.
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  #304  
Old 02-12-2016, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Four Top 50 wins. That's where it's at.
Ok, but seems like this is getting out of hand, some non p5 school teams are not able to get any/enough top 50 games on their schedule, so they get punished. Seems like everybody has to now worship at the top 50 altar, or else you get jobbed.

Temple's rpi is suspect, but they have a good top 50 record, so the bad rpi is ignored.

Not fair to force a non p5 team to play most of its ooc games on the road, those programs can't make any money on home games because they are on the road all the time trying to get top 50 games.

I think Monmouth does this.
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  #305  
Old 02-12-2016, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Ok, but seems like this is getting out of hand, some non p5 school teams are not able to get any/enough top 50 games on their schedule, so they get punished. Seems like everybody has to now worship at the top 50 altar, you get jobbed.

Temple's rpi is suspect, but they have a good top 50 record, so the bad rpi is ignored.

Not fair to force a team to play most of its ooc games on the road, those programs can't make any money on home games because they are on the road all the time trying to get top 50 games.

I don't disagree, but that's what they look at. Dayton was the last team in last season because of only one Top 50 win. GW's win over Virginia this season is carrying them nicely. Top 25 wins, Top 50 wins, and how you play on the road appears to be the Big Trifecta for NCAA tournament seeding purposes.
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  #306  
Old 02-12-2016, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
I don't disagree, but that's what they look at. Dayton was the last team in last season because of only one Top 50 win. GW's win over Virginia this season is carrying them nicely. Top 25 wins, Top 50 wins, and how you play on the road appears to be the Big Trifecta for NCAA tournament seeding purposes.
Agree.

Yes, Monmouth played a grand total of ONE home non-conference game this year, wow, I am extremely impressed.

Monmouth really earned their at large bid this year if they get an at large bid.

They played at such notable opponents as UCLA, Southern Cal, Georgetown, and Rutgers.


http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Monmouth.html
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  #307  
Old 02-13-2016, 12:04 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Agree.

Yes, Monmouth played a grand total of ONE home non-conference game this year, wow, I am extremely impressed.

Monmouth really earned their at large bid this year if they get an at large bid.

They played at such notable opponents as UCLA, Southern Cal, Georgetown, and Rutgers.


http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Monmouth.html

Concur. Believe it or not, Monmouth is currently our second best win of the season. The win that keeps on...giving?!

I really hope Monmouth gets to dance this year. They have earned it. Would be a shame if they are left out.
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  #308  
Old 02-13-2016, 12:32 AM
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-bas...bracket-020916
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  #309  
Old 02-13-2016, 08:31 AM
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OK. That's one win closer to me caring about bracket and seeding. Go Flyers and shoot down those Hawks. Then I will start to care about brackets and seeding.
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  #310  
Old 02-13-2016, 09:53 AM
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From USA Today's "Bracketologist", updated this morning:

"Now on to Dayton, I've heard from many fans who say I have them seeded too low. I think they are better than where I have them seeded, but I'm trying to predict what the committee will do, and this team has a very similar profile as Wichita State did last year and they ended up a 7-seed to the surprise of almost everyone. I don't hate Dayton, I actually root for them, they are a great story and will be dangerous in the tournament. I just wonder, after last year, how the committee will view them. I expect they will move up for me as the season progresses, but I fear overseeding them based on recent history."

He has us as a 7 seed

http://www.bracketwag.com/
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  #311  
Old 02-13-2016, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
From USA Today's "Bracketologist", updated this morning:

"Now on to Dayton, I've heard from many fans who say I have them seeded too low. I think they are better than where I have them seeded, but I'm trying to predict what the committee will do, and this team has a very similar profile as Wichita State did last year and they ended up a 7-seed to the surprise of almost everyone. I don't hate Dayton, I actually root for them, they are a great story and will be dangerous in the tournament. I just wonder, after last year, how the committee will view them. I expect they will move up for me as the season progresses, but I fear overseeding them based on recent history."

He has us as a 7 seed

http://www.bracketwag.com/
Thanks. Shelby's logic flawed. WST 2015 2-2 top 50 with best wins 11 N Iowa home & 50 Tulsa home. Best away/neutral win @ IL St #53.
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  #312  
Old 02-13-2016, 11:14 AM
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If we are a 7 seed this year as it currently stands there needs to be an investigation into/and overhaul the whole process.
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  #313  
Old 02-13-2016, 12:08 PM
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5% to go 27-3 with RPI of 6.

Most likely 30% 25-5 with RPI of 12.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html

Rpiforecast uses Sagarin predictor.
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  #314  
Old 02-13-2016, 01:04 PM
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#13 in dance card.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #315  
Old 02-13-2016, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
I really hope Monmouth gets to dance this year. They have earned it. Would be a shame if they are left out.
CBS producers are probably already practicing how to quickly transition the video from a Monmouth player scoring to the Monmouth bench.
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  #316  
Old 02-13-2016, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
#13 in dance card.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Does anyone know the formula that Dance Card uses to come up with their rankings? I would love to see it.

Also, is the Nitty Gritty report, that the committee looks at, available anywhere?
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  #317  
Old 02-13-2016, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Does anyone know the formula that Dance Card uses to come up with their rankings? I would love to see it.

Also, is the Nitty Gritty report, that the committee looks at, available anywhere?
Using past decisions of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and numerous pieces of information (e.g. RPI rankings, number of wins and losses, conference records, etc.) for all teams that were candidates for at-large selections in those years, the authors devised the Dance Card formula as an estimate of which pieces of information were most important to the Selection Committee, and the weights that the Committee placed on those pieces of information
As far as the Nitty Gritty reports, search for "team sheets." Here's an example http://bbstate.com/teams/UD/selectionsheet
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  #318  
Old 02-13-2016, 05:31 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
As far as the Nitty Gritty reports, search for "team sheets." Here's an example http://bbstate.com/teams/UD/selectionsheet
I will be glad when that LaSalle loss is no longer one of our last 12 games (just hope we can avoid replacing it with another bad loss)
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  #319  
Old 02-13-2016, 05:52 PM
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The only really bad loss left on the schedule is Saint Louis. It would be shocking if we lose that game. I think there's too much at stake for the team to have that big a let down this late in the season.
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  #320  
Old 02-13-2016, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Also, is the Nitty Gritty report, that the committee looks at, available anywhere?
Not sure if this is what you are looking for...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty
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  #321  
Old 02-13-2016, 07:05 PM
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Joey Brackets said at half time yesterday he didn't see UD going any higher than a four seed. He said that would pretty much require them to run the table through the tournament and their schedule was too difficult for that to happen
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  #322  
Old 02-13-2016, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Does anyone know the formula that Dance Card uses to come up with their rankings? I would love to see it.

Also, is the Nitty Gritty report, that the committee looks at, available anywhere?
Blackburn review, top left corner labeled cheat sheet
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  #323  
Old 02-13-2016, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Joey Brackets said at half time yesterday he didn't see UD going any higher than a four seed. He said that would pretty much require them to run the table through the tournament and their schedule was too difficult for that to happen
That was assuming there wouldn't be a boatload of upsets. Have you seen the upsets just today? Can easily see us as a 3 seed if we continue to win.
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  #324  
Old 02-13-2016, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
That was assuming there wouldn't be a boatload of upsets. Have you seen the upsets just today? Can easily see us as a 3 seed if we continue to win.
I agree. It's the year of the upsets. I think we will start seeing some 3s for the Flyers next week. I also think we will be ranked lower than 15 next week.

Big game in Philly looms Wednesday...
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  #325  
Old 02-13-2016, 08:11 PM
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I think our ceiling is a 3 seed and I think that is fair. OU, Kansas, Virginia, UNC, Iowa, Maryland, X, Nova, and Oregon will likely be ahead of us. That puts us at best on the 3 line which I think is GREAT. Teams don't just get to the 3 line. This is a special season going on and I'm enjoying every minute.
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  #326  
Old 02-13-2016, 11:01 PM
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3 or 4 is the ceiling.. would have to win out or lose Finals of A10 only to get a 3 Seed
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  #327  
Old 02-13-2016, 11:06 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Joey Brackets said at half time yesterday he didn't see UD going any higher than a four seed. He said that would pretty much require them to run the table through the tournament and their schedule was too difficult for that to happen

Archie and the boys say: challenge accepted...starting with Joey's Hawks.
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Old 02-13-2016, 11:11 PM
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Talking about bracketology when I click on a link named that is just fine in my book.

However, I am so sick and tired of every ESPN game I watch hearing the numerous references to "Joey Brackets" and who he has in and who he has out. The madness started a couple weeks ago and I do not think ESPN has had a game on yet without discussing Joey a few times. Quite frankly at this point no one has a clue who the final bubble teams will be. Still alot of basketball to be played in the last 3 weeks, so let us enjoy the game without your rambling on about Joey being half a step below god.
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Old 02-14-2016, 05:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
3 or 4 is the ceiling.. would have to win out or lose Finals of A10 only to get a 3 Seed
I think I agree. What is the highest seed any A10 team has ever received? Saint Joes was a 2 seed I think. I can't remember if UMASS with Marcus Camby was a 1 seed. For some reason I think.they were.

When SJU was a 2 seed they were either 30-1 or 31-1.
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Old 02-14-2016, 07:43 AM
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The landscape in college basketball has change so much since 2004 and 1996. For that reason alone it's difficult to infer that because UMASS and St Joe were 1 seeds that the current Flyers should or would be viewed in the same light. Both of those teams had some premier talent....Marcus Camby, Jameer Nelson, and Delonte West. I think our ceiling is a 4 seed but am content anywhere in that 4, 5 or 6 seed, I'll even take a 10 seed with a chip on our shoulder. I've said it before the only seed I don't want is an 8 or 9 seed bc then we would play a 1 seed in round two.. From there it's all about match-ups.
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Talking about bracketology when I click on a link named that is just fine in my book.

However, I am so sick and tired of every ESPN game I watch hearing the numerous references to "Joey Brackets" and who he has in and who he has out. The madness started a couple weeks ago and I do not think ESPN has had a game on yet without discussing Joey a few times. Quite frankly at this point no one has a clue who the final bubble teams will be. Still alot of basketball to be played in the last 3 weeks, so let us enjoy the game without your rambling on about Joey being half a step below god.
I think they're milking that cow too often. The exciting part isn't having it last for 3 months. The exciting part is the couple of weeks where it's madness. When it starts just after Christmas it's not madness it's tedium.
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:49 AM
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Again, it is ESPN promoting ESPN.... they hired Joey Brackets .... so guess what? They now promote him as some kind of god..... Big surprise.
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:09 AM
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UMASS was a 1 in '96. SJU was a #1 in '04
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
Again, it is ESPN promoting ESPN.... they hired Joey Brackets .... so guess what? They now promote him as some kind of god..... Big surprise.
Yep, and I caught myself turning ESPN off and turning on FoxSports1, that no one is supposed to be watching due to the league they were covering.
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Old 02-14-2016, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Talking about bracketology when I click on a link named that is just fine in my book.

However, I am so sick and tired of every ESPN game I watch hearing the numerous references to "Joey Brackets" and who he has in and who he has out. The madness started a couple weeks ago and I do not think ESPN has had a game on yet without discussing Joey a few times. Quite frankly at this point no one has a clue who the final bubble teams will be. Still alot of basketball to be played in the last 3 weeks, so let us enjoy the game without your rambling on about Joey being half a step below god.
Welcome to show biz. I'm holding my breath they don't come up with Mel Kiper Jr. as a college basketball recruiting whiz.
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Old 02-14-2016, 11:15 AM
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This morning ...
www.arewein.net ... has UD a number 1 seed, with 99% chance of getting into the NCAAs.

LOL .. crazy ... crazy times ... obviously we won't get a No 1 seed ... website is created by a UD grad!!!!???? LOL!!!
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:20 PM
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If we win out (that would be insane, btw) we are most likely a 2 seed, possibly a 1 seed depending on who we play in A10 tourney.

Let's do a best case scenario. Win out, then somehow draw the three top RPI teams in the tourney. I'm not even sure that's possible but just for argument's sake we'll do it. As of today that would be SJU, SBU, and GW. Let's say we win all three. That would make our numbers:

30-3 (17-1), RPI: 1, SOS: 27

That's a number 1 seed, period. Like I said in another thread the only way we get a 1 is if there is a 3 at the beginning of our win/loss column, i.e. we win out.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Joey Brackets said at half time yesterday he didn't see UD going any higher than a four seed. He said that would pretty much require them to run the table through the tournament and their schedule was too difficult for that to happen
I heard Palm talk about this the other day as well, mentioned that he thought UD's peak was about a 4 seed. That is fine, but what I don't get, is both guys have UD as a 4 seed today. How could their peak not be higher, not be a 3 or 2 seed? Pehaps its unlikely, heck its likely they drop their next game at SJU, and with tough home games vs Bona & VCU, not mention a road date at Richmond and Rhody back home plus a road date @ slu (who has knocked off some of the top conference teams at home, somehow). UD is far from locked into any range, I'm not even sure they are 100% locked into the tournament, though it would take a huge collapse to not make the field at this point. Still, with the tough dates ahead, potential for 2-3 more top 50 wins, perhaps another top 100 win or two (depending on how things break out) I would think there is room left for them to slide up a seed line or two, there will be a team or two currently ahead of them that will slip a bit down the stretch, there will be a team or two that is mediocre down the stretch. There will be some that rocket down the stretch, they don't have to pass them all, just a handful as both "experts" currently have it shown to move up a seed line or two.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:33 PM
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We are one of the very few teams that have not hit a rough patch where we lost 3/4 games in a 6 game stretch. I hope we don't go there. But if we were a stock, a whole lot of investors would be shorting us just playing the probabilities.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
If we win out (that would be insane, btw) we are most likely a 2 seed, possibly a 1 seed depending on who we play in A10 tourney.

Let's do a best case scenario. Win out, then somehow draw the three top RPI teams in the tourney. I'm not even sure that's possible but just for argument's sake we'll do it. As of today that would be SJU, SBU, and GW. Let's say we win all three. That would make our numbers:

30-3 (17-1), RPI: 1, SOS: 27

That's a number 1 seed, period. Like I said in another thread the only way we get a 1 is if there is a 3 at the beginning of our win/loss column, i.e. we win out.
What happens if we lose 5 or 6 gamesnot likely but what's the worst case scenero
We play at St Joes and at Richmond and all 3 homes games will be tough, just sayin
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:07 PM
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Just win......one game at a time. We have to saty healthy. Don't look further than this Wednesday in Philly. ABSOLUTELY NO cheese steaks!
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:11 PM
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^^^

According to rpiforecast, they'd be sitting w/ an RPI around 37 is they lost all 6 remaining games. Only the game at SLU would go down as a truely terrible loss, but it would erase a ton of goodwill that they've stock piled to this point. You'd likely be looking at first 4 seed line at that point, another stinker in Brooklyn may push them out.

rpiforecast/sags says there is a 0.4% chance of that happening. Win all but one, and their papers looks a whole lot better with an rpi in the top 30. They may still be looking at the 1st four again, but they'd avoid another terrible road loss (assuming that 1 win comes at SLU).

If they drop 2 games the rest of the way (which is what rpiforecast/sags say is the most likely scenerio at this point) they'll head to brooklyn w/ an rpi around 12. They'd be in great shape for a 4 seed still depending on how brooklyn goes.

FWIW, rpiforecast/sags says there is a greater shot UD goes undefeated the rest of the way (8%) than they drop 3 games along the way to Brooklyn (6%). Obviously that is all on paper and nothing is guaranteed, as Bill says, take 'em one game at a time. Win the next 2, and UD is in very strong position for a top 2 seed in Brooklyn. This week is pretty big for UD.

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Old 02-14-2016, 01:12 PM
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Don't like to think about that, but

Unlikely, BUT, any month-long injuries to one or more key players would make our finishing schedule a real challenge. Right behind us are VCU, St Joes, and St Bonn. Our A10 seeding could be adversely affected, and auto bid would probably not happen. Following that our NCAA seed would regress to probably a 10. We have seen the product degrade where a key piece is missing for just one game---not good.

Only injuries would make that scenario a possibility. Not likely. I know this, our foes wouldn't shed a tear and it would not take the bulls eye off our back.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
If we win out (that would be insane, btw) we are most likely a 2 seed, possibly a 1 seed depending on who we play in A10 tourney.

Let's do a best case scenario. Win out, then somehow draw the three top RPI teams in the tourney. I'm not even sure that's possible but just for argument's sake we'll do it. As of today that would be SJU, SBU, and GW. Let's say we win all three. That would make our numbers:

30-3 (17-1), RPI: 1, SOS: 27

That's a number 1 seed, period. Like I said in another thread the only way we get a 1 is if there is a 3 at the beginning of our win/loss column, i.e. we win out.
Unfortunately, Dayton cannot receive a 1 or 2 seed even if win next 9 games (6 in conference and 3 in the A-10 tourney -- btw something like 1-3% chance to win out).

Dayton, even with winning out (which will not happen), should not receive a 1 or 2 seed. Dayton will be 1-1 top 25 games. Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier, etc. will have many more top 25/50 wins by the end of the season.

I even question if Dayton can get a 3, I think it is a stretch, but possible.

As Medford said, even if Dayton goes 3-3 down the stretch and 0-1 in the A-10, Dayton would be 24-7 and about a 15-20 RPI. Dayton is still in. The 3-3 would be lose @St. Joes, @Richmond, and VCU home. Win home St. Bonnie's home RI, and @St. Louis. Still think Dayton a 9-11 seed with that outcome.

Last edited by ruechalgrin; 02-14-2016 at 01:28 PM..
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:36 PM
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Im not so sure the home date against VCU is tougher then the home date against Bonaventure. Marcus Posley is one scary sum*****. Although he's prone to hanging his head and pouting.....see 1st half and first 5 minutes of second half in Olean
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:46 PM
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This is a tough stretch with 5/6 games top 100 kenpom and only non top 100 St. Louis on the road. Level of difficulty as follows from toughest to easiest.

(1) St. Joe's Away 37 (Equivalent of playing #1 team in the country at UD Arena -- think NC, Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma)
(2) Richmond Away 98 (Equivalent of playing #30 team in the country at UD Arena -- think Syracuse, Cal, or Gonzaga)
(3) VCU Home 38
(4) St. Bonnies Home 65
(5) Rhode Island Home 85
(6) St. Louis Away 257 (equivalent of playing #190 Home -- think Umass, Minnesota, or Boston University) & remember lost to 296 on the road ...

Wed Feb 17 37 Saint Joseph's L, 72-68 35% Away

Sat Feb 20 65 St. Bonaventure W, 74-67 76% Home

Tue Feb 23 257 Saint Louis W, 71-61 86% Away

Sat Feb 27 85 Rhode Island W, 68-61 79% Home

Tue Mar 1 98 Richmond W, 73-72 56% Away

Sat Mar 5 38 VCU W, 71-67 66% Home

Projected record: 25-5 15-3

St. Bonnie's defense is where they are weak at #137 in country (but #32 offense). VCU #32 defense (and #82 offense).
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Old 02-14-2016, 03:00 PM
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Good numbers dude. Sort of a Figgie-Lite
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Old 02-14-2016, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Unfortunately, Dayton cannot receive a 1 or 2 seed even if win next 9 games (6 in conference and 3 in the A-10 tourney -- btw something like 1-3% chance to win out).

Dayton, even with winning out (which will not happen), should not receive a 1 or 2 seed. Dayton will be 1-1 top 25 games. Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier, etc. will have many more top 25/50 wins by the end of the season.

I even question if Dayton can get a 3, I think it is a stretch, but possible.

As Medford said, even if Dayton goes 3-3 down the stretch and 0-1 in the A-10, Dayton would be 24-7 and about a 15-20 RPI. Dayton is still in. The 3-3 would be lose @St. Joes, @Richmond, and VCU home. Win home St. Bonnie's home RI, and @St. Louis. Still think Dayton a 9-11 seed with that outcome.

The top teams keep dropping like flies. If that continues, nothing is impossible. The key for us is to keep winning, the rest will take care of itself.
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Old 02-14-2016, 04:05 PM
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We would definitely get at least a 2 seed if we won out.

I agree that it's not going to happen... but who thought we would be 21-3 by now? Very few.
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Old 02-14-2016, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Unfortunately, Dayton cannot receive a 1 or 2 seed even if win next 9 games (6 in conference and 3 in the A-10 tourney -- btw something like 1-3% chance to win out).

Dayton, even with winning out (which will not happen), should not receive a 1 or 2 seed. Dayton will be 1-1 top 25 games. Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier, etc. will have many more top 25/50 wins by the end of the season.

I even question if Dayton can get a 3, I think it is a stretch, but possible.

As Medford said, even if Dayton goes 3-3 down the stretch and 0-1 in the A-10, Dayton would be 24-7 and about a 15-20 RPI. Dayton is still in. The 3-3 would be lose @St. Joes, @Richmond, and VCU home. Win home St. Bonnie's home RI, and @St. Louis. Still think Dayton a 9-11 seed with that outcome.
If we go 24-7 I would hope that would be a 7 seed or 8 seed at worst. Have you seen the rest of the country's resumes? I am hoping 4-2 worst case finish which should lock up a 5 or 6 seed at worse IMO.
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Old 02-14-2016, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Unfortunately, Dayton cannot receive a 1 or 2 seed even if win next 9 games (6 in conference and 3 in the A-10 tourney -- btw something like 1-3% chance to win out).

Dayton, even with winning out (which will not happen), should not receive a 1 or 2 seed. Dayton will be 1-1 top 25 games. Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier, etc. will have many more top 25/50 wins by the end of the season.

I even question if Dayton can get a 3, I think it is a stretch, but possible.

As Medford said, even if Dayton goes 3-3 down the stretch and 0-1 in the A-10, Dayton would be 24-7 and about a 15-20 RPI. Dayton is still in. The 3-3 would be lose @St. Joes, @Richmond, and VCU home. Win home St. Bonnie's home RI, and @St. Louis. Still think Dayton a 9-11 seed with that outcome.
Hey Rue, I got 10 beers to 1 that if we win out we get a one or two seed

Even money if we get 8 of 9 we are a 3. Edit: (Meaning an A10 regular season and tournament championship)

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Old 02-14-2016, 05:54 PM
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Keep this in mind. Teams are sent to regions based upon their seed. In other words, if you are the 8th team on the S curve ( or 4th 2 seed) you will likely be placed far from home as the committee has to balance the regions. However, if you are the first 3 seed ( or 9th on the S curve) you get preferred placement.
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  #353  
Old 02-14-2016, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Keep this in mind. Teams are sent to regions based upon their seed. In other words, if you are the 8th team on the S curve ( or 4th 2 seed) you will likely be placed far from home as the committee has to balance the regions. However, if you are the first 3 seed ( or 9th on the S curve) you get preferred placement.
I believe they are placed as follows: the number 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible (which puts the 16, 8, and 9 seed there also) then the 2 seeds are placed (putting 15, 7 and 10 at that site) these could all be at the same site. Then the 3 seeds with their corresponding seeds, and then the 4s. The top 3 seed should not get a preferred site over the last 2 seed.

Could have to travel for regionals, as the last 2 seed would go to the regional with the overall numerous 1.

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  #354  
Old 02-14-2016, 06:19 PM
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Because of the outcry of where we played last year I expect us to get sent to Spokane
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  #355  
Old 02-14-2016, 06:43 PM
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Just making the NCAAT is enough for me, everything else is gravy...3x in a row to the NCAAT has not happened since the 1960's, I'm not going to be greedy and ask for more than just making the NCAAT.

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  #356  
Old 02-14-2016, 07:49 PM
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I will say the two words that end in "ology"I have skepticism for are "bracketology" and "Scientology". People that worship at the alter of either are nutty. However, this is a fun ride and my guilty pleasure is seed speculation. Especially when it's a great day (week (year)) to be a flyer!
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:20 PM
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Based on our schedule and how we seem to get screwed by the committee I will still be thrilled with a 7 or better, preferably a 5 or 6.
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Based on our schedule and how we seem to get screwed by the committee I will still be thrilled with a 7 or better, preferably a 5 or 6.
Based on our schedule, we have the #12 rpi, don't see a problem at all. If we continue to win we deserve a four or five, screw the pooch and we don't. Balls in out court, win them all and it's probably a four, lose a couple and we slide a bit
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:41 AM
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Dayton a 5 playing Hawaii in round of 32. :-)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...5571d11f9cf89c
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  #360  
Old 02-15-2016, 05:52 AM
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"But remember, we just beat very good Virginia team at home...that's got to be good enough to leapfrog Dayton in any scenario, right?", Coach K

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  #361  
Old 02-15-2016, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted by udflyerhoops2 View Post
"But remember, we just beat very good Virginia team at home...that's got to be good enough to leapfrog Dayton in any scenario, right?", Coach K
is this made up? if this is real please post a link. Im about tired of Coach K and his Atlantic 10/Dayton bashing
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
is this made up? if this is real please post a link. Im about tired of Coach K and his Atlantic 10/Dayton bashing
Of course I am being fecicious, but it does sound like something he'd say.

The other reason I said that, is because a saw a bracket projection (I forget the site) that bumped them back up to a 5.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:26 AM
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All the bracket projections follow what they think the committee will do. Which is really emphasize Top 50 wins, so things like beating Virginia tend to move you up significantly.

Personally, I think the emphasis on top 50 is intentionally biased to the P5. Most schools in the Top 50 tend to be P5, plus they get their TV noncom games against P5 and enough buy games so they all have good records and therefore Top 50 becomes a foregone conclusion.

And frankly, there isn't much difference between number 48 and number 99 in terms of quality of opponent.
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  #364  
Old 02-15-2016, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug View Post
All the bracket projections follow what they think the committee will do. Which is really emphasize Top 50 wins, so things like beating Virginia tend to move you up significantly.

Personally, I think the emphasis on top 50 is intentionally biased to the P5. Most schools in the Top 50 tend to be P5, plus they get their TV noncom games against P5 and enough buy games so they all have good records and therefore Top 50 becomes a foregone conclusion.

And frankly, there isn't much difference between number 48 and number 99 in terms of quality of opponent.
As we know, playing a team at home is like playing a team 50+ RPI spots lower on the road. So you sit at home and beat teams in your non-con schedule and then brag about your great record against decent teams, having "proven" you're better than the non-P5 schools. Then if you're a P5 school you will play other P5 teams at home, and eventually you'll have some top 50 teams in that mix.

It's a self-reinforcing cycle, much like poverty.
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  #365  
Old 02-15-2016, 08:57 AM
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As much as people like to complain about the "eye test", UD may benefit from a subjective methodology this year. Below is from a brief excerpt from an article that was about Iowa's prospective seeding, but it had an interesting quote from David Worlock, the Division I men’s basketball media coordinator:

"There’s a misconception, Worlock said, that the NCAA RPI is the primary metric the committee uses when bracketing. The reality is, every Monday, each committee member receives a composite ranking of six rating systems -- NCAA RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, LRMC, KPI and BPI.

'Obviously the RPI is the one the committee’s used over years for longer period of time,' Worlock said. 'Other metrics have come along, and we’ve recognized the value in those metrics.'"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...rena/80280852/

This is first time I have seen the NCAA acknowledge that they look at these 6 specific computer rankings.

As of this morning, here are UD's rankings in those six rating systems:
RPI: 12
Kenpom: 37
Sagarin: 34
LMRC: 39
KPI: 10
BPI: 30
Mean ranking: 27.0 (3rd best 7th seed, so still 7 seed w/out SMU and L'ville)
Median Ranking: 32 (last 8th seed)

I didn't look at all of their methodology, but I am sure UD is hurt because they have won so many close games. The RPI doesn't take margin of victory into account, so it makes sense that UD is so high in that ranking.

Hopefully the committee values winning games, and doesn't reward margin of victory or close losses this year, or we may be in for another surprise Selection Sunday.
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  #366  
Old 02-15-2016, 09:52 AM
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Throw sportsmanship and playing walk-ons out the window if margin of victory is important.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:13 PM
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Lunardi has an update. We are making our move counterclockwise around the 4 seed, which means he is edging us closer to making us a three seed. I'm starting to like Joe this year. Oddly enough if you follow bracket matrix.com, we are the second 4th seed there as well.

St. Joes, and VCU are sitting at 10 seeds. St. Bonnie getting some recognition and has some opportunities to make a few statements coming up. I doubt we hear much about GW anymore unless they can turn it up the rest of the way.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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  #368  
Old 02-15-2016, 01:22 PM
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We moved slightly down in Dancecard to 15. Same seed but I think we were 13th overall last week. Dance Card will start getting more accurate towards the end of February though.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #369  
Old 02-15-2016, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Based on our schedule, we have the #12 rpi, don't see a problem at all. If we continue to win we deserve a four or five, screw the pooch and we don't. Balls in out court, win them all and it's probably a four, lose a couple and we slide a bit
I meant based on the schedule we have left. I think we will lose a couple of them, pushing us back to a 5 or 6, maybe even a 7. Our overall schedule was obviously very good. Our final six games scare me.
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Old 02-15-2016, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
As much as people like to complain about the "eye test", UD may benefit from a subjective methodology this year. Below is from a brief excerpt from an article that was about Iowa's prospective seeding, but it had an interesting quote from David Worlock, the Division I men’s basketball media coordinator:

"There’s a misconception, Worlock said, that the NCAA RPI is the primary metric the committee uses when bracketing. The reality is, every Monday, each committee member receives a composite ranking of six rating systems -- NCAA RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, LRMC, KPI and BPI.

'Obviously the RPI is the one the committee’s used over years for longer period of time,' Worlock said. 'Other metrics have come along, and we’ve recognized the value in those metrics.'"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...rena/80280852/

This is first time I have seen the NCAA acknowledge that they look at these 6 specific computer rankings.

As of this morning, here are UD's rankings in those six rating systems:
RPI: 12
Kenpom: 37
Sagarin: 34
LMRC: 39
KPI: 10
BPI: 30
Mean ranking: 27.0 (3rd best 7th seed, so still 7 seed w/out SMU and L'ville)
Median Ranking: 32 (last 8th seed)

I didn't look at all of their methodology, but I am sure UD is hurt because they have won so many close games. The RPI doesn't take margin of victory into account, so it makes sense that UD is so high in that ranking.

Hopefully the committee values winning games, and doesn't reward margin of victory or close losses this year, or we may be in for another surprise Selection Sunday.
They have acknowledged for the past two years and indications are they use LMRC non-bayesian which does not account for margin of victory. Dayton is #13 in LMRC non-bayesian.

https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmc0/
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  #371  
Old 02-15-2016, 02:55 PM
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So I went to Arewein.net again to see if maybe they have more than 4 teams as Number 1 seeds, and they do not. Their number 1s are Villanova, Kansas, The Team With No Name, and Dayton. They need to be included in the bracketmatrix.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:14 PM
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I'm sorry, but any site that has UD as a 1 seed I don't have much faith in. I love me some Flyers, but a 1 seed seems like way too far a stretch. I could see maybe a 2, if they win out and some other teams above drop a few more than they should, but I have trouble even buying that. Its a huge jump from a 2 seed line to a 1 seed line. At best, UD could be 3-1 vs top 25 teams, but only if they beat SJU Wednesday evening, as well as in the A10 and SJU climbs a few notches up into the top 25 despite dropping 2 to UD along the way.

The same site also had Iowa as a 5 seed, IIRC, which doesn't seem remotely close either. Trust me, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm left scratching my head on their seed lines for many teams, not just UD & Iowa.
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  #373  
Old 02-15-2016, 04:15 PM
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I didn't say I believed them, just reporting the facts.
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:29 PM
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^^^

sorry if I didn't say so but I did get that vibe from your post. I was mostly commenting that the site leaves me shaking my head, for far more than just their views on the Flyers. I just pray they know far more than I give them credit for.
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  #375  
Old 02-15-2016, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
So I went to Arewein.net again to see if maybe they have more than 4 teams as Number 1 seeds, and they do not. Their number 1s are Villanova, Kansas, The Team With No Name, and Dayton. They need to be included in the bracketmatrix.
I've been to the tourney on The Team with No Name....la la laaa laaa la la la
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  #376  
Old 02-15-2016, 05:37 PM
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Saw America about 3 months ago. Gerry's voice is shot. Other than that it was a great trip to my college days!
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  #377  
Old 02-16-2016, 02:26 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm


Latest DC...UD #15...the last 10 spots or so above and below the cut line jump around a lot every week.

Bonnies looking surprisingly strong, fairly well inside the cut line.
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:50 PM
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Alabama amazes me. Avery Johnson is doing a heck of job. Now up to RPI 37 and SOS 11.
Beat Florida in Gainesville this week. As one might expect, Avery is instilling tough defensive mentality. Both Iowa and Alabama are 5-5 against top 50.


Good for them. Good for us.
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  #379  
Old 02-16-2016, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
As much as people like to complain about the "eye test", UD may benefit from a subjective methodology this year. Below is from a brief excerpt from an article that was about Iowa's prospective seeding, but it had an interesting quote from David Worlock, the Division I men’s basketball media coordinator:

"There’s a misconception, Worlock said, that the NCAA RPI is the primary metric the committee uses when bracketing. The reality is, every Monday, each committee member receives a composite ranking of six rating systems -- NCAA RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, LRMC, KPI and BPI.

'Obviously the RPI is the one the committee’s used over years for longer period of time,' Worlock said. 'Other metrics have come along, and we’ve recognized the value in those metrics.'"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...rena/80280852/

This is first time I have seen the NCAA acknowledge that they look at these 6 specific computer rankings.

As of this morning, here are UD's rankings in those six rating systems:
RPI: 12
Kenpom: 37
Sagarin: 34
LMRC: 39
KPI: 10
BPI: 30
Mean ranking: 27.0 (3rd best 7th seed, so still 7 seed w/out SMU and L'ville)
Median Ranking: 32 (last 8th seed)

I didn't look at all of their methodology, but I am sure UD is hurt because they have won so many close games. The RPI doesn't take margin of victory into account, so it makes sense that UD is so high in that ranking.

Hopefully the committee values winning games, and doesn't reward margin of victory or close losses this year, or we may be in for another surprise Selection Sunday.
they probably don't use Sagarin and KenPom as much as they have offensive and defensive team ratings. Which are all good, but don't necessarily translate to wins and losses.

What is KPI and LMRC, not familiar with those?

Last, if you bunched them together putting record, RPI, and Top 50 wins together that at least gets us 13 to 18th - very similar to our ranking.

16 Divided by 4 = 4 Seed . Just in doing basic Math.

Have to believe we are hovering around a 4 Seed.
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Old 02-16-2016, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I'm sorry, but any site that has UD as a 1 seed I don't have much faith in. I love me some Flyers, but a 1 seed seems like way too far a stretch. I could see maybe a 2, if they win out and some other teams above drop a few more than they should, but I have trouble even buying that. Its a huge jump from a 2 seed line to a 1 seed line. At best, UD could be 3-1 vs top 25 teams, but only if they beat SJU Wednesday evening, as well as in the A10 and SJU climbs a few notches up into the top 25 despite dropping 2 to UD along the way.

The same site also had Iowa as a 5 seed, IIRC, which doesn't seem remotely close either. Trust me, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm left scratching my head on their seed lines for many teams, not just UD & Iowa.
2 would have to be a COMPLETE win out situation, including the A10. And 2 or 3 top teams losing some spots.

3 is realistically possible with say a loss to VCU or actually one road loss (SJU). And win the A10.

4 is Likely.

5 with a bad loss or 2 not so bad losses.
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  #381  
Old 02-16-2016, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
they probably don't use Sagarin and KenPom as much as they have offensive and defensive team ratings. Which are all good, but don't necessarily translate to wins and losses.

What is KPI and LMRC, not familiar with those?

Last, if you bunched them together putting record, RPI, and Top 50 wins together that at least gets us 13 to 18th - very similar to our ranking.

16 Divided by 4 = 4 Seed . Just in doing basic Math.

Have to believe we are hovering around a 4 Seed.
http://www.foxsports.com/college-bas...e-teams-021616

According to an article by Reid Forgrave, who participated in last week's mock selection exercise, they look at a lot of things other than RPI.
For hundreds of teams, we compared the same six metrics, things like RPI and KPI and KenPom, that the NCAA uses to compile the real bracket on Selection Sunday.
In fact he quotes MSU's AD as saying that “If you just make decisions based off RPI, you don’t need to be here.”
In my mind this is what the selection committee uses as an excuse to put teams in...oh, i don't know, like UCLA last year.
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Old 02-18-2016, 10:21 AM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/233

Lunardi updated his bracket this morning and we stayed put as a 4 seed. But appears we did slide down a spot or two on the S-curve and he moved us out West to Spokane.

SJU is up to an 8 seed and VCU holding on to a 10 seed.
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  #383  
Old 02-18-2016, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/233

Lunardi updated his bracket this morning and we stayed put as a 4 seed. But appears we did slide down a spot or two on the S-curve and he moved us out West to Spokane.

SJU is up to an 8 seed and VCU holding on to a 10 seed.
Not surprised. While it sucks to lose, all things considered this was not an awful loss. Hope we can garner another win streak and hopefully move up a couple spots not he S curve to keep us closer to home.

Looks like SJU and Dayton will probably work their way to be the two A10 locks with VCU and GW playing to get in come tournament time (VCU with he better chance). St. Bona's loss last night really hurt their chances and i think it will take a big tourney run to get them in. GO FLYERS
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Old 02-18-2016, 11:22 AM
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Surprising but SBU listed in next 4 out and GW has no mention at all.
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Old 02-18-2016, 11:47 AM
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How can LSU be in the last 4 byes? 3-5 against the top 50 and 3 > 100 losses.

I don't want to hear about Ben Simmons.
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Old 02-18-2016, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
How can LSU be in the last 4 byes? 3-5 against the top 50 and 3 > 100 losses.

I don't want to hear about Ben Simmons.

I agree, but the ESPN/SEC machine does not hold your same opinion.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:19 PM
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It's also important to remember that the committee takes into account player injuries. We are undefeated with our full lineup and it's fair to say the absence of Pierre against Chatt and Pollard against LaSalle was the difference in those two games. Even last night Pollard could have made a big enough impact to affect the outcome.

That's why it's so important to be at full strength during the conference tournament and leading into the NCAA. The committee has this information and if we can remain undefeated with our full lineup that will go a long way in giving us some slack on our losses.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
It's also important to remember that the committee takes into account player injuries. We are undefeated with our full lineup and it's fair to say the absence of Pierre against Chatt and Pollard against LaSalle was the difference in those two games. Even last night Pollard could have made a big enough impact to affect the outcome.

That's why it's so important to be at full strength during the conference tournament and leading into the NCAA. The committee has this information and if we can remain undefeated with our full lineup that will go a long way in giving us some slack on our losses.
I don't want to sound too much like a conspiracy theory guy but I just don't agree with this. Besides perhaps the A10 specific member of the committee the members don't know who Kendall Pollard is. They are not basketball junkies like the people responding to this thread. They may understand that Pierre missed the first half but they committee knows way more about Coach K's back problems or Boeheim's suspension because that is what has driven the news cycle for 8 months. Its only natural to understand what has been put in front of them.

Now, this could also work into our advantage as they will see losses to Chattanooga, X, and Joes and say "well these are all teams we've discussed and know are good, I bet this Dayton team is pretty good too."

As I've said before, perception matters. Being one of the big boys matters. Dayton is getting in again this year. The 3rd year in a row. If they can win multiple games in a row for the 3rd straight year that keeps the ball rolling. A great perception example: if any WCC team had the resume of Gonzaga they wouldn't be near where they are being projected. Imagine the Pacific Tigers getting that respect. But the Zags have earned it and that is also what Dayton is doing to this day.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
How can LSU be in the last 4 byes? 3-5 against the top 50 and 3 > 100 losses.

I don't want to hear about Ben Simmons.
Why Syracuse?
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Old 02-18-2016, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Why Syracuse?
Syracuse is not on my top 5 non Flyer favorite teams but they are 4-6 against top 50 and only 1 loss >100.

Lunardi has them as a 9.

The there is the whole Boheim thing which I wrestle with. I think the record without him need to mean something, if not, why have the suspension. But if they are under seeded, it hurts the team they are matched up against more than them. Maybe a forced first four game is in order for them. Same with Wichita St.
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Old 02-19-2016, 10:39 AM
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Jerry Palm is the one punishing the Flyers For THE SJU loss...has UD as a 5 seed. The difference right now between the prospects of being a 3 seed as opposed to following down to a five (or 6 or 7) is so huge, crucial, not funny, and bordering on sickening; especially the difference between a 3 versus a 4 or 5. The final five opponents are scaring me. Big stretch ahead...Go Flyers!
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Old 02-19-2016, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
How can LSU be in the last 4 byes? 3-5 against the top 50 and 3 > 100 losses.

I don't want to hear about Ben Simmons.
Ben Simmons.....lol
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:01 AM
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I love that the conversation is about our seeding vs getting in the tournament. I still worry about a collapse, but then realize Archie won't let that happen.

An interesting note is that before St. Joe our RPI was 12. After losing, our RPI is now 8 (the UD Pride RPI as source). I guess our opponents have been making hay.
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Jerry Palm is the one punishing the Flyers For THE SJU loss...has UD as a 5 seed. The difference right now between the prospects of being a 3 seed as opposed to following down to a five (or 6 or 7) is so huge, crucial, not funny, and bordering on sickening; especially the difference between a 3 versus a 4 or 5. The final five opponents are scaring me. Big stretch ahead...Go Flyers!
Palm came across as an arrogant ass in the interview posted on a different thread.... He definitely has a bias toward the power 5. One more Flyer loss and he will have us on the bubble.
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Dogdaddy View Post
I love that the conversation is about our seeding vs getting in the tournament. I still worry about a collapse, but then realize Archie won't let that happen.

An interesting note is that before St. Joe our RPI was 12. After losing, our RPI is now 8 (the UD Pride RPI as source). I guess our opponents have been making hay.
not really, UD's opponents have taken a few hits this week. The difference b/w #8 & #11 right now is extremely small, small enough that 1 game by perhaps a common opponent to a few teams could shuffle the order around in that range alone.
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
I don't want to sound too much like a conspiracy theory guy but I just don't agree with this. Besides perhaps the A10 specific member of the committee the members don't know who Kendall Pollard is. They are not basketball junkies like the people responding to this thread. They may understand that Pierre missed the first half but they committee knows way more about Coach K's back problems or Boeheim's suspension because that is what has driven the news cycle for 8 months. Its only natural to understand what has been put in front of them.

Now, this could also work into our advantage as they will see losses to Chattanooga, X, and Joes and say "well these are all teams we've discussed and know are good, I bet this Dayton team is pretty good too."

As I've said before, perception matters. Being one of the big boys matters. Dayton is getting in again this year. The 3rd year in a row. If they can win multiple games in a row for the 3rd straight year that keeps the ball rolling. A great perception example: if any WCC team had the resume of Gonzaga they wouldn't be near where they are being projected. Imagine the Pacific Tigers getting that respect. But the Zags have earned it and that is also what Dayton is doing to this day.
The committee takes injuries and suspensions into account, but they do it moreso for that team's opponent rather than the team itself. In other words. Saint Joe's gets less credit for beating Dayton when Dayton didn't have Pollard than they would have had they beaten you with Pollard. As far as UD itself, they really don't take it into account.

You're greatly underestimating how much basketball these guys watch. They get DirecTV in their house for the entire season, they have the sports package maxed out and a huge amount of space on their DVRs, and they get passwords to every single conference and streaming website. Each committee member has three (or four) conferences that they're primarily responsible for. From the first week of the season on, there are weekly reports as to what is happening in those conferences, and that includes key injuries.

They also have a daily list of key games kind of like the one that Medford posts here, and they have notes on what happened in those games.

They collectively watch way more than any bracketoligist does, and they know what players were injured. I promise you they know what Dayton has done in every single one of their games.
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  #397  
Old 02-19-2016, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
The committee takes injuries and suspensions into account, but they do it moreso for that team's opponent rather than the team itself. In other words. Saint Joe's gets less credit for beating Dayton when Dayton didn't have Pollard than they would have had they beaten you with Pollard. As far as UD itself, they really don't take it into account.

.
That doesn't make any sense. If St Joe gets less credit for winning then we should be punished less for losing.
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  #398  
Old 02-19-2016, 02:09 PM
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There are no more "rules". This committee chair has pretty much said they will use whatever they want, when they want. Saw this on the A10 site.

Interesting article from Omaha:


here’s a bracketologist in every arena seat, with an RPI chart or a logarithm sheet from noted hoops metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. They’ll update you on CU’s status after Tuesday’s game.

But I enlisted some hints from a man in the know — Creighton Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen, a member of the NCAA Basketball Committee — to provide some helpful hints for the bracketologists.

» RPI: “The RPI is like a 5-iron on the golf course,” Rasmussen said. “It’s something I might use. And if I do use it, I hope it works. But we don’t use it all the time. We don’t use it as much as people think. We don’t ever talk about RPI.”

» Other metrics, such as the “Kenpom” rating, go on a “Nitty Gritty” sheet for each school. Rasmussen said the metrics are used by committee members as a guide to form a big-picture, total-résumé opinion of each school.

“For instance, I’m in charge of the Big Ten for the committee,” Rasmussen said. “I might get up and talk about Maryland.

“I won’t mention their RPI. But I’ll talk about their offensive and defensive efficiency, which we get from Kenpom. Good wins, road wins, nonconference schedule, shooting percentage. How often do they get to the line. Are they balanced?”

» Top 50 wins: “We talk about it, but it’s easy to get tricked by the top 50. What’s the difference between No. 47 and No. 53? Those two teams are basically the same.”

» Conference RPI: “It’s never mentioned. But that doesn’t mean it’s not important. Where it’s a factor is this: If you’re in a high-rated league, you have a better chance of getting good wins and less of a chance of a loss that hurts you.”

» Number of conference wins: “It doesn’t come up. It’s hard to measure because it goes from league to league. Again, if you’re in a good league, and you win 10 games, you more than likely have some good wins.

“But I go back to the Big Ten. Until this week, Indiana had not played any of the other top five teams in the Big Ten: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa or Purdue. And they only play those teams a total of five times, whereas Wisconsin plays them nine times.

“It’s hard to get a read on number of league wins with all the unbalanced schedules.”

In the end, every school is placed on the board and compared to others based on their individual merits. Then, it comes down to the opinions of 10 individuals.

http://www.omaha.com/sports/shatel-f...e83dece00.html
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  #399  
Old 02-19-2016, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
There are no more "rules". This committee chair has pretty much said they will use whatever they want, when they want. Saw this on the A10 site.

Interesting article from Omaha:


here’s a bracketologist in every arena seat, with an RPI chart or a logarithm sheet from noted hoops metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. They’ll update you on CU’s status after Tuesday’s game.

But I enlisted some hints from a man in the know — Creighton Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen, a member of the NCAA Basketball Committee — to provide some helpful hints for the bracketologists.

» RPI: “The RPI is like a 5-iron on the golf course,” Rasmussen said. “It’s something I might use. And if I do use it, I hope it works. But we don’t use it all the time. We don’t use it as much as people think. We don’t ever talk about RPI.”

» Other metrics, such as the “Kenpom” rating, go on a “Nitty Gritty” sheet for each school. Rasmussen said the metrics are used by committee members as a guide to form a big-picture, total-résumé opinion of each school.

“For instance, I’m in charge of the Big Ten for the committee,” Rasmussen said. “I might get up and talk about Maryland.

“I won’t mention their RPI. But I’ll talk about their offensive and defensive efficiency, which we get from Kenpom. Good wins, road wins, nonconference schedule, shooting percentage. How often do they get to the line. Are they balanced?”

» Top 50 wins: “We talk about it, but it’s easy to get tricked by the top 50. What’s the difference between No. 47 and No. 53? Those two teams are basically the same.”

» Conference RPI: “It’s never mentioned. But that doesn’t mean it’s not important. Where it’s a factor is this: If you’re in a high-rated league, you have a better chance of getting good wins and less of a chance of a loss that hurts you.”

» Number of conference wins: “It doesn’t come up. It’s hard to measure because it goes from league to league. Again, if you’re in a good league, and you win 10 games, you more than likely have some good wins.

“But I go back to the Big Ten. Until this week, Indiana had not played any of the other top five teams in the Big Ten: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa or Purdue. And they only play those teams a total of five times, whereas Wisconsin plays them nine times.

“It’s hard to get a read on number of league wins with all the unbalanced schedules.”

In the end, every school is placed on the board and compared to others based on their individual merits. Then, it comes down to the opinions of 10 individuals.

http://www.omaha.com/sports/shatel-f...e83dece00.html
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  #400  
Old 02-19-2016, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
The committee takes injuries and suspensions into account, but they do it moreso for that team's opponent rather than the team itself. In other words. Saint Joe's gets less credit for beating Dayton when Dayton didn't have Pollard than they would have had they beaten you with Pollard. As far as UD itself, they really don't take it into account.

You're greatly underestimating how much basketball these guys watch. They get DirecTV in their house for the entire season, they have the sports package maxed out and a huge amount of space on their DVRs, and they get passwords to every single conference and streaming website. Each committee member has three (or four) conferences that they're primarily responsible for. From the first week of the season on, there are weekly reports as to what is happening in those conferences, and that includes key injuries.

They also have a daily list of key games kind of like the one that Medford posts here, and they have notes on what happened in those games.

They collectively watch way more than any bracketoligist does, and they know what players were injured. I promise you they know what Dayton has done in every single one of their games.
Which also means they get to hear guys like Coach K say: "overrated? I mean, c'mon, we're playing 6 guys"
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