Bracketology Thread

[Flyer69ers]

USA Today just posted their tourney field of "68"

http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/10/nca...march-madness/

Dayton an 8 seed in the Midwest

[ud2]

Nine schools banned from competing in the tournament this year.

[podcast411]

The problem with the A-10 is pretty clear with our next 5 games.

Date Opp. Record (RPI)
2/10 @ StL 10-13 (238)
2/14 vs. StBon 13-8 (118)
2/19 vs. StJoes 10-12 (164)
2/21 @ Duq 7-14 (256)
2/25 vs. GMason 7-15 (198)

Ouch - All 5 will be fired up - we have ZERO room for error. Loosing at home to >100 RPI teams is bad - Losing on the road to >200 RPI teams is NIT worthy.

We have to go 5-0 in the next 5 games to stay on the good side of the bubble.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

[UD90]

Originally Posted by podcast411 The problem with the A-10 is pretty clear with our next 5 games. Date Opp. Record (RPI) 2/10 @ StL 10-13 (238) 2/14 vs. StBon 13-8 (118) 2/19 vs. StJoes 10-12 (164) 2/21 @ Duq 7-14 (256) 2/25 vs. GMason 7-15 (198) Ouch - All 5 will be fired up - we have ZERO room for error. Loosing at home to >100 RPI teams is bad - Losing on the road to >200 RPI teams is NIT worthy. We have to go 5-0 in the next 5 games to stay on the good side of the bubble.

The glass is either half full or half empty. I posted this in another thread showing we are favored by 9-14 points by Pomeroy in these 5 games. He has been scary accurate so far.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

[tom]

In addition to NCAA consideration, the 5 games are very important because we are on the wrong side of tie-breakers with the other good teams in the A10 and so we need to have a better record than them to get one of the #1-#4 seeds in the A10 tourney - so while the other guys are hopefully losing 1 or 2 in this stretch, winning 5 would be sweet

[jack72]

We can and will win all five. What a great opportunity.

[ud2]

And I think we can beat VCU, St. B. beat them the other day, they may be vulnerable now without Weber...UD could run the table the rest of the regular season.

[UDBrian]

I'm sure the team is worried about today's game. We don't have any bad losses and can't afford one now.

[BRob2Perryman3]

People, how in god's name is _avier in ANYBODYS bracket!?!?!?!? A plethora of terrible losses and 9 losses period. There is no way in hell they make it

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[224]

Dance card has us two spots out with an RPI of 46
Lunardi has us as a 9 playing UC -- ESPN RPI has us at 37
Realtimerpi.com has our RPI at 35
UD Pride at 37

Which RPI system is used on selection Sunday? If selection Sunday were today, there is a pretty big discrepancy between 35 and 46. If we go into it thinking we are as high as 35, but they have us at 46, tears could be shed

[AC91]

Use the UD Pride RPI. There is a reason Chris was invited to the mock selection, and that is a huge reason...from what i can gather it is as accurate as any you will find in the country and the NCAA knows it.

[KYFlyer]

Originally Posted by 224 Dance card has us two spots out with an RPI of 46 Which RPI system is used on selection Sunday? If selection Sunday were today, there is a pretty big discrepancy between 35 and 46. If we go into it thinking we are as high as 35, but they have us at 46, tears could be shed

From the Dance Card site:

"The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years."

[224]

Originally Posted by KYFlyer From the Dance Card site: "The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years."

Does anyone know when the RPI system changed how it valued games?

[momszer]

Bilas has us ranked 21st in his latest Top 68.

http://beta.espn.go.com/mens-college...ege-basketball

[xubrew]

Originally Posted by 224 Does anyone know when the RPI system changed how it valued games?

In 2003-2004 they used both the old and new RPI with the old being official.

In 04-05, they used both again with the new being official.

[ruechalgrin]

Patrick Stevens who is 100% the last two NCAAs on picks and very accurate on seeds has Dayton in as an 8.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river

[Chris R]

Originally Posted by xubrew In 2003-2004 they used both the old and new RPI with the old being official. In 04-05, they used both again with the new being official.

Check our RPI. To the far right is the original formula RPI data for each team so you can compare old/new with special attention to the Rank Variance fields which measure the delta b/t the same fields using the old/new RPI formula..

[xubrew]

Well, this would be fun.

If you look at the podcast, they make it pretty clear that they're not trying to guess the committee with this bracket, but they do talk about what they think the committee would do differently than what they're doing. And, for what it's worth, I think some of these guys know the committee pretty well....

http://hoopshd.com/2015/02/13/bracke...february-13th/

[Medford]

Brew, I think you posted that last year as well, and it was an interesting pod cast to follow along when they did their "live selection" Thanks again.

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by Chris R Check our RPI. To the far right is the original formula RPI data for each team so you can compare old/new with special attention to the Rank Variance fields which measure the delta b/t the same fields using the old/new RPI formula..

The new RPI formula is probably the best thing to happen to CBB in the last 20 years. Now you just can't just rely on league name and use your clout to live off of easy games at home. You have to go on the road and prove something.

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by UD90 Something worth noting. The Dance card uses the old rpi by choice. Normally I haven't seen a significant difference in our old vs new, but we are +8 right now. This explains why the Dance card currently has us 2 below the cut line. 44 vs 36.

That is odd. I wonder what their thinking is using the old formula. It seemed like we got a lot of extra consideration from the committee last year for being good on the road.

[Medford]

My guess, is that the other factors they have involved in their process kind of evens out the use of the old formula vs the new formula and keeps them away from giving "double credit", if you will, to teams that pick up a win on the road.

[bobber]

Great answer.

[Medford]

FWIW, in the media mock draft, UD is a 10 seed, facing #7 Seed West Virginia in UK's bracket (mid west) Oh, should UD win, likely round 2 opponent? Arizona. There's a weekend I'd be happy to see (especially if the 2nd part came true, because winning the first part would be sweet)

[224]

Originally Posted by Fudd That is odd. I wonder what their thinking is using the old formula. It seemed like we got a lot of extra consideration from the committee last year for being good on the road.

NCAA started using new RPI formula in 2005.

Dance Card uses old formula. Dance Card has predicted 108 of 110 correct in last 3 years.

How could this make sense?

Worth noting they have us currently as 'Last 4 In'

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by 224 NCAA started using new RPI formula in 2005. Dance Card uses old formula. Dance Card has predicted 108 of 110 correct in last 3 years. How could this make sense? Worth noting they have us currently as 'Last 4 In'

Old RPI just part of their algorithm that works so they have not changed it.

[T-Bone 84]

Yes, 9 teams are banned from participating, but only 1 of those ('Cuse) was a legitimate threat to make it as an at-large. The rest? San Jose State (RPI #337)? Appalachian State (#278)? Lamar (#257)? Uh...no.

Also, I want to know who "St. Illinois" is. As of last Sunday, the "Last 4 in" were "Tulsa, Seton Hall, St. Illinois, NC State". See for yourselves!

http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/08/nca...e-field-of-68/

[Glen Clark]

Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 . . . Also, I want to know who "St. Illinois" is. As of last Sunday, the "Last 4 in" were "Tulsa, Seton Hall, St. Illinois, NC State". See for yourselves! http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/08/nca...e-field-of-68/

I'm guessing a combination of St John's (RPI 43) and Illinois (RPI 44)

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

[Viperstick]

Another site with Dayton on the Bubble, currently in as an 11 seed with 62.5% chance of making the tourney. Need to get to 24 wins according to this projection.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

[TA111]

Viper, best to follow those who have a very good track record on predicting the field. The best out there is Patrick Stevens who got every pick correct last year. Has the Flyers as an 8 seed. Comfortably in.

[CE80]

For what it is worth, Dance Card has us on the right side of the bubble now -#46 which would have us playing our first NCAA game at home.

[Flyer 86]

pretty sure we will be 7-9, with an 8 being my guess.
(puts us against a 1 Seed in the Second game).


Question: if we won out, and also won out in the A10 tourney - does that possibly or likely put us 6 or a 7 seed?

[San Diego Flyer]

Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 Also, I want to know who "St. Illinois" is. As of last Sunday, the "Last 4 in" were "Tulsa, Seton Hall, St. Illinois, NC State". See for yourselves!

That's concerning. How could Seton Hall at 73rpi, and a conference record of 5-8, even be in any discussion of being selected? That surely will be corrected quickly. Maybe it already has been. They have lost 7 of their last 9.

[Flyer 86]

I think we match up pretty well with most teams from 16 to 40, no issues. Can take any of those games. Of the Top 15, about 6 games worry me - with Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Villanova near the top of my uh oh list.


Of the remaining 9 teams, there are defintely possible victories to be had in a One and Done scenario However, we likely aren't playing Teams 1 -20 in Round 1 .

Round 2 a different story , especially if we are 8 or 9 seed.

How do people think we match up with: Virginia?

North Carolina?

Louisville?

Would love to hear your thoughts.

[ruechalgrin]

Still a 9 on ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[TA111]

Patrick Stevens who is far and away better than Lunardi has us at 7 seed and well inside the cut line.http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev..._story_package

[ruechalgrin]

A 9 on cbs. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[ruechalgrin]

An 8 in nbc. http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...mselves-apart/

[Medford]

The team that is the biggest head scratcher to me is Clemson. Dancecard has them in, Patrick stevens has them in his last grouping, on the fringe or whatever he called them. I can't really figure out why.

[momszer]

Stevens has us as 16th in the at large field of 32 right behind Oklahoma St. I'll take that.

[forego1]

Flyer 86, boy, I like this post of yours.

I'm licking my chops no matter what teams we play. Any other time I would be honed in on who, but I have the idea, win or lose, they can put on a pretty good show.
We will get open looks from outside because of how well we move the ball, even if we get a bit stuffed up inside. Besides continued solid defense, we are going to have to have 50% nights on three's in possibly the second round and more certainly after. We ARE capable, so that makes it a great spectacle to look forward to.

If we hit a dozen 3's out of twenty four (36), get a dozen in transition and steals (12), and ten from inside and at the line (20) and I think we are in whatever game. Maybe we throw in (4) for SeasonTicketFan's lovely intangibles and that is (72)

Okay, THAT is not easy against Kentucky, but really not so impossible as not to entertain it.

Lots of fun, thanks.

[KYFlyer]

Originally Posted by CE80 For what it is worth, Dance Card has us on the right side of the bubble now -#46 which would have us playing our first NCAA game at home.

Dance card does not purport to seed teams. They are only looking at the likelihood that teams will be in the tournament. I would say that given our strength of wins, we are on a razor's edge for getting into the tournament but given the paucity of bad losses and enough good wins, we would be seeded well if we were to get in as most bracketologists predict.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer That's concerning. How could Seton Hall at 73rpi, and a conference record of 5-8, even be in any discussion of being selected? That surely will be corrected quickly. Maybe it already has been. They have lost 7 of their last 9.

I just think it is their SOS...they have five games left, four of which are against solid rpi opponents, if they go 4-1, they will probably get in, not an easy task though, but they are not dead yet.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by KYFlyer Dance card does not purport to seed teams. They are only looking at the likelihood that teams will be in the tournament. I would say that given our strength of wins, we are on a razor's edge for getting into the tournament but given the paucity of bad losses and enough good wins, we would be seeded well if we were to get in as most bracketologists predict.

Dance Card may not purport to seed teams but I think it is safe to assume that the teams closer to the bust line are the weakest teams and most likely to end up in the First Four. Last year 3 of the last 4 listed teams (including NC St which was a Dance Card miss) ended up in the First Four.

[UD90]

Dance card will still get almost all teams right, except 2-3 this year.

Last year it missed on California vs. NC State. I would love to know what the old RPIs were for each of these teams verse the new RPI last year. Maybe Chris R has the RPI history to look at. I have no idea, but maybe California had a really good old RPI and a bad new RPI. We could be one of the teams that they miss on this year.

Our RPI is 39 from a Dance Card perspective verses 30 under the new RPI. Change our RPI to 30 and we are probably safely in under the dance card.

I had a hunch that we had to be one of the teams most impacted by this so I took 5 minutes and looked at this data.

Top 50 RPI teams -

Team RPI OLD RPI DIFF()
=================
Iona 46 68 22
Wisconsin Green Bay 48 65 17
Wofford 43 57 14
Boise State 42 55 13
Dayton 30 39 9
San Diego State 20 26 6
Ohio State 34 40 6
Colorado State 26 31 5
Massachusetts 39 44 5
Wichita State 15 19 4
Oklahoma 17 21 4
Northern Iowa 19 23 4
Maryland 10 13 3
Tulsa 47 50 3
Iowa State 13 15 2
Arkansas 18 20 2
Cincinnati 35 37 2
Illinois 45 47 2
Villanova 4 5 1
Arizona 7 8 1
Utah 9 10 1
Xavier 40 41 1
Texas A&M 44 45 1
Stanford 50 51 1
Duke 5 4 -1
Gonzaga 8 7 -1
Temple 31 30 -1
Michigan State 36 35 -1
Mississippi 37 36 -1
North Carolina 11 9 -2
Baylor 16 14 -2
Southern Methodist 24 22 -2
Indiana 29 27 -2
Louisville 14 11 -3
Notre Dame 27 24 -3
Texas 33 29 -4
Georgetown 21 16 -5
Butler 22 17 -5
Providence 23 18 -5
St. John's (NY) 41 34 -7
North Carolina State 49 33 -16
Kansas 1 1 -
Kentucky 2 2 -
Virginia 3 3 -
Wisconsin 6 6 -
Virginia Commonwealth 12 12 -
Oklahoma State 25 25 -
West Virginia 28 28 -
Georgia 32 32 -
UCLA 38 38 -

	Chris Rieman CHRIS RIEMAN, PUBLISHER Founder and publisher of UDPride.com. Writer, photographer, videographer, coder, grip, comedian, auto aficionado, and lifelong Flyer fan.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by UD90 Dance card will still get almost all teams right, except 2-3 this year. Last year it missed on California vs. NC State. I would love to know what the old RPIs were for each of these teams verse the new RPI last year. Maybe Chris R has the RPI history to look at. I have no idea, but maybe California had a really good old RPI and a bad new RPI. We could be one of the teams that they miss on this year. Our RPI is 39 from a Dance Card perspective verses 30 under the new RPI. Change our RPI to 30 and we are probably safely in under the dance card. I had a hunch that we had to be one of the teams most impacted by this so I took 5 minutes and looked at this data.

I think you are giving too much weight to the actual RPI used in the Dance Card algorithm. Somebody (Figgie) correct me if I am wrong but I believe the RPI formula was changed to reflect how much more difficult it is to win on the road and the statistics backed it up. However, if the same Dance Card algorithm is still working, it may indicate the NCAA selection committee is still not valuing road wins as much as the statistics say they should.

	Chris Rieman CHRIS RIEMAN, PUBLISHER Founder and publisher of UDPride.com. Writer, photographer, videographer, coder, grip, comedian, auto aficionado, and lifelong Flyer fan.

[Medford]

I've said this before, but my guess is that the other things they are factoring into their formula accounts for things that the change in the rpi formula accounts for. I'm guessing road wins were already given more weight, so changing to the new formula and still holding their bonus for road wins may shift it more in the favor of road wins that it should be. If that makes sense.

[Buster Goode]

Anyone who doesn't have us comfortably in right now is out of their friggin mind. 19-5, first place in the A10. A buzzer beater from 20-4.

[224]

I discussed, as did others, the RPI Formula Dance Card uses earlier in this thread. Dance Card Formula uses the old RPI. The selection committee started using new RPI in 2005. In the last 3 years, using the old RPI formula, Dance Card has predicted 108 of 110 correct.

So what this tells us is the other factors dance card takes into consideration for its algorithm balance out using the old RPI, because they've been so accurate the past 3 years.

So if we compare our real RPI vs what Dance Card uses, no doubt our RPI is worse in Dance Card. However, stating if DC used our real RPI we'd be safely in can't be justified, because it throws off the whole algorithm.

Thankfully for us, humans pick the tournament and not the algorithm as I think the resume by itself is strong.

However until DC has us safely in, I don't feel safe. Their track record for predictability is just too strong.

[TA111]

While I think DanceCard does a pretty good job of predicting teams that make the tourney they do a bad job of seeding. I looked at last year's final prediction and they were way off on several teams. For example, they had NC St completely out by 5 spots and actually had X as a 10 seed. From a seeding standpoint I like Patrick Stevens. He has us as a 7 seed. Every bracketologist of any repute has us at 9 or better.

[224]

Originally Posted by TA111 While I think DanceCard does a pretty good job of predicting teams that make the tourney they do a bad job of seeding. I looked at last year's final prediction and they were way off on several teams. For example, they had NC St completely out by 5 spots and actually had X as a 10 seed. From a seeding standpoint I like Patrick Stevens. He has us as a 7 seed. Every bracketologist of any repute has us at 9 or better.

Except dance card.

[Cityengr]

Bracketology and statistics aside, the only thing that has me worried is recent ESPN and Lunardi coverage about VCU and Davidson being in/out with no mention of Dayton.

Today's noon report talked about McKillop at Davidson and their potent offense and ability to score. Again no mention of us currently leading the A-10.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CE80 For what it is worth, Dance Card has us on the right side of the bubble now -#46 which would have us playing our first NCAA game at home.

I haven't closely followed all this bracketology stuff, I prefer to wait until most of the dust settles, but yikes, UD is #46, and #48 is the first one out.

A First Four game, while maybe disappointing in that UD didn't make the field of 64, would still be a very special event.

[Glen Clark]

Originally Posted by Cityengr Bracketology and statistics aside, the only thing that has me worried is recent ESPN and Lunardi coverage about VCU and Davidson being in/out with no mention of Dayton. Today's noon report talked about McKillop at Davidson and their potent offense and ability to score. Again no mention of us currently leading the A-10.

Lunardi has Dayton as a 9 seed in his current bracketology:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

[Flyer68]

"The Guru" in the NY Daily News has us as a 8 seed in the East playing Cincinnati #9 in Second Round

[UD90]

If you want to know more about how the Dance Card works watch the video on the website. It's about 35 minutes long. At the 23:12 mark they state that half the dance card factors are based on the RPI (the old one). Also - the committee in 2012 seemed to shed some of the conference biases of past selection committees. The transparency of the process (i.e. Mock Selections) has probably influenced this. In addition to the RPI the dance card utilizes the Sagarin as well.

I'll be surprised if they don't eventually go to the new rpi.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by 224 Except dance card.

I forgot that somebody posted somewhere on this board that the Dance Card website starts to get increasingly more accurate as we get closer to Selection Sunday, so I assume that there is still time for UD to improve from position #46.

[jack72]

USA Today has their picks in today. We are an 8 seed.

[Medford]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

Latest espn bubble watch (CBS and others have been updating their as well), time for some math, I think I last did this 2 weeks ago, the picture has changed a bit, though not a ton:

68 spots for the field. 32 conferences (autobids) 36 at large spots available

9 multi-bid conferences plus the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga & BYU), Valley (Northern Iowa & WSU) and CUSA (ODU). If you assume ODU wins their tournament (frankly if they don't, I don't think they make the dance at this point) and one of the two teams listed from the other conferences win their bid, and there are no "bid stealers from outside of this list win the other 9 conferences, that would leave the 59 teams from this bubble watch fighting for the 36 at large spots, plus the 12 at autobids contained there in. In other words, 59 teams for 48 spots. Assume 3 bid stealers, and its 59 teams for 45 spots total.

IIRC, it appears that the bubble has expanded from the initial watch 2 weeks ago, but at any rate, for UD to make the field, they'll need to stay/move ahead of 11-14 of these teams. So where are those teams going to come from? lets see if I can guess...

1) BYU, I think they'll have to win the WCC to get in, though they do end their regular season at Gonzaga. Win that one and loss in the finals (I'll assume at Gonzaga) and perhaps they slide in, seems like a tall order in both cases.

2) Mountain West Conference. There is very little meat on CSU's resume, and nothing left this season, Boise has a trip to San Diego St, 1 of them won't make the field.

3-4) SEC. UK is obviously a lock, and Arkansas is close behind. B/w the other 4, I can't see them getting more than 2 additional teams (Ole Miss & Georgia at this point) May even see a 5th team from that mini-group get the boot.

5-6) Pac12 Stanford, UCLA, Oregon, all are kind of grouped together, 2 of them eventually get knocked off

7-9) B10. Lots of teams w/ just OK resume's at this point, of the 8 teams on the list, 3 of them eventually get the boot

10.5) Big East & B12, either X, SJU get left behind

10.5) B12, Texas is really the only one left at this point who may miss out.

11-12) ACC, Pitt, NC State & Miami appear to be battling for 1 spot

13) AAC, either UC or Tulsa get left behind

14-17) A10. Of the 6 teams on the list from the A10, I have trouble seeing more than 3 teams getting into the dance short of a conference tournament run from someone well outside of at large consideration heading into Brooklyn

So the obvious key, is for UD to remain in the top 2-3 profiles in the A10. I know the quick argument is that conferences don't earn bids, teams do, which is true, but many of these teams are going to be playing each other and bumping one another off or facing a team like UK or Duke that adds to their loss total. Unlike the OOC portion of their schedules, these teams have to actually travel to schools that have a semblance of talent.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Medford [URL] So the obvious key, is for UD to remain in the top 2-3 profiles in the A10. I know the quick argument is that conferences don't earn bids, teams do, which is true, but many of these teams are going to be playing each other and bumping one another off or facing a team like UK or Duke that adds to their loss total. Unlike the OOC portion of their schedules, these teams have to actually travel to schools that have a semblance of talent.

Or in simpler terms - just keep winning.

[CE80]

Dance Card has us up to 44 now. I just realized, they show the bubble bursting after 47 which puts us only 3 spots above the cut line but the last 2 years, the line was actually drawn after 51. Obviously that depends upon bid stealing but if the last 2 year's result equal this year's, we are now 7 spots above the cut line.

[Flyer 86]

SO much bid stealing and leap frogging can happen .

Esp in conference tourneys. Just hope the leaders hold serve pretty much.

And we win out . Simple!

[ruechalgrin]

Bracket matrix ranks the bracketologists. All the top ones have UD comfortably in as of today.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[ruechalgrin]

Just about every bubble team has multipe bad losses. We are still in right now (we will be slightly out accordimg to the next dance card). Just no margin for error now with our lack of quality wins.

Need to get to 24 wins including A-10 and 32/33. Beat GM, lose @VCU, beat Rhode Island, beat @Lasalle (last 2 not easy), win first game in A-10, and lose next = 11 seed again IMHO barely escaping first four.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[TA111]

There is no magic number of wins needed. Just to go out and win. Remember, you are always being judged against the field.

[forego1]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin ...Need to get to 24 wins...

That's the BUBBLE line, yes? 24 however we do it.

25 is in.

[C-time]

The positive of the loss is that this will probably keep UD from being a 8 or 9 seed and having to play a 1 seed in the second game. I would much rather be a 10, 11, or 12 seed to have a better chance to advance to the second week.

This may even get us a home game in the First Four.

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by TA111 There is no magic number of wins needed. Just to go out and win. Remember, you are always being judged against the field.

Of course no magic #, but basing 24 on UD likely profile with 24 wins and others likely profile. Low 30s RPI, 7-6 top 100 and 1 bad loss, 8-8 road/neutral = 11 seed to last 4 in. Assumes normal number of bid thieves, etc.

[joeybaloney]

I hate to be negative Nellie, but I really don't think we are going to make the dance. In fact, the only game I feel confident about us winning the rest of the way is George Mason. I would be shocked if we win at VCU or at Lasalle. Rhody will be very tough at home. At best I think we go 2-2, which leaves us at 12-6 in conference. I would be surprised if that gives us a 1st round bye in the A-10 tourney, and winning back to back to back games with our lack of depth is unlikely.

I am certainly not jumping ship, and I hope my gut feeling is wrong. I just think the team's tank is just about empty. Either way, gotta love the effort these guys have brought under difficult circumstances.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[ruechalgrin]

According to Sagarin and kenpom, 2.4 wins expected out of next 4 games. Beat GM and 1.5/3. So beat GM and coin flip whether 22-8 or 23-7.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Of course no magic #, but basing 24 on UD likely profile with 24 wins and others likely profile. Low 30s RPI, 7-6 top 100 and 1 bad loss, 8-8 road/neutral = 11 seed to last 4 in. Assumes normal number of bid thieves, etc.

You've got to consider the resumes of all the other teams being considered. Some of them are pretty bad in comparison. Patrick Stevens, who I consider the best prognosticator, had us as a 7 seed yesterday and I can assure you that this one loss wouldn't put the Flyers anywhere near the cut line if he is accurate.

[forego1]

No matter if we get the regular season wins needed. You have to think the A-10 tourney will be a freak-show of HEART.
I can't see how this team will not be tenacious of will after the way they have played so relentlessly most of the season. It won't be so much about win or loss for me--but about being pitted against elimination when every fiber is unwilling to accept that outcome.

THAT will get your own hearts pumping hard if you have a living pulse.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin According to Sagarin and kenpom, 2.4 wins expected out of next 4 games. Beat GM and 1.5/3. So beat GM and coin flip whether 22-8 or 23-7.

Kenpom also had us winning easy today. If you look back earlier in the year Kenpom had us with 10 losses by now. It's just a metric, doesn't mean much.

[224]

It's never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems either.

We had won 3 in a row, 4 of the last 5 with the 1 loss being a put back at the buzzer @GW. Some bracket makers have us as high as 7.

Now we lose 1, and it seems as though the world comes crashing down. This isn't a "good loss" by any means, but it was on the road and 2nd game in 43 hours. Lack of depth showed via tired legs on D.

Rest up boys, take care of business against GM, hold court with URI, and steal one at LaSalle or VCU. We will be fine.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by TA111 Kenpom also had us winning easy today. If you look back earlier in the year Kenpom had us with 10 losses by now. It's just a metric, doesn't mean much.

Kenpom has had us between 22-8 and 24-6 all year.

[224]

Took a hit on Bracket Matrix and the dance card.

Dance card now has us on outside looking in, at the 50 spot, with the bubble bursting after team 47.

Bracket Matrix shows us into the tourney in 87/94 brackets -- before the game yesterday we were in 93/94 (with realtimeRPI being the one that had us out, and that's a terrible site. It lists VCU in twice and SLU as in so they must smoke crack)

The more telling part of bracket matrix is of the 19 brackets that have been updated through 2/22, 6 of 19 have us out. Yesterday they all had us in.

As I stated yesterday, still plenty of ball to play ourselves in or out. The announcer on TV yesterday that kept saying we were squarely in also must be smoking crack. Maybe he runs realtimeRPI?

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Glen Clark]

Originally Posted by 224 . . . before the game yesterday we were in 93/94 (with realtimeRPI being the one that had us out, and that's a terrible site. It lists VCU in twice and SLU as in so they must smoke crack) . . .

realtimeRPI doesn't know Davidson is in the A-10, listing our loss there as a non-conference loss

. . . The announcer on TV yesterday that kept saying we were squarely in also must be smoking crack. Maybe he runs realtimeRPI?

He also said we had five wins against Power 5 conference opponents this year, but they were over five bad teams. Agreed, UConn, GT, & Boston College are bad this year, but Ole Miss is respectable and Texas A&M is drawing Top 25 votes.

____________________________
Del: What did he say?
Neal: He says we're going the wrong way . . .
Del: Oh, he's drunk. How would he know where we're going?
Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

[ruechalgrin]

Palm has Dayton a 10

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[ruechalgrin]

Joe Lunardi will have UD as a #9 in his February 23rd update playing our former rival. How do I know? Just trust me like some of you unfortunately did with my prediction about UD's trip to Pittsburgh.

[San Diego Flyer]

After weathering the challenge of our thinned out roster, just getting in the dance any way we can would be an incredible accomplishment this season. We are holding on by a thread with a tough schedule to finish. Consecutive night games in the A10 and the NCAA are daunting. So proud of the Flyer effort and focus, I just hope for them that they get rewarded with a post-season chance.

[rollo]

http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/22/nca...field-of-68-2/

We're a 10 in USAToday's Bracketology playing WVa...winner to play Wisconsin.

For those on the Archie Miller Watch...Pitt is a 'First four out' and NCSU is teetering as an 11.

[joeybaloney]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Joe Lunardi will have UD as a #9 in his February 23rd update playing our former rival. How do I know? Just trust me like some of you unfortunately did with my prediction about UD's trip to Pittsburgh.

You are correct sir

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/238

[CE80]

Originally Posted by joeybaloney You are correct sir http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/238

ruechalgrin was a student of Lunardi's. He probably brought him apples a couple of times and now he gets inside info.

[SLUFLYER]

I will take a #9 seed on February 23rd, assuming he's got a good pulse on the brackets. Basically means we don't have to do anything special from here on out to get in the dance. Huge couple of weeks ahead - let's at least get 3 out of 4 heading into the A10.

[Flyer68]

NY Daily News "The Guru" has us as a #8 seed playing #9 Colorado State.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER I will take a #9 seed on February 23rd, assuming he's got a good pulse on the brackets. Basically means we don't have to do anything special from here on out to get in the dance. Huge couple of weeks ahead - let's at least get 3 out of 4 heading into the A10.

What would you consider "anything special'? I say that would be beat GM and URI. Don't lose on Thursday in Brooklyn.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[flyerfever]

Is Jamie Dixon in trouble? Is Gottfried out if NCST doesn't dance?

[TA111]

Patrick Stevens has the Flyers as an 8 seed today and 14 spots inside the projected cut line.

[ruechalgrin]

Looks like we are collectively 6-14 spots above the cut line in about all credible brackets except Dance Card. I really expect (and perhaps hope) UD to move in the right direction in dance card after the next 4 games.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by CE80 What would you consider "anything special'? I say that would be beat GM and URI. Don't lose on Thursday in Brooklyn.

Special would be 4-0. 3-1 would be nice but even 2-2 would probably still keep us on the good side, assuming one of the losses is not GM. Problem with 2-2 is that is probably not good enough for a Top 4 finish and bye, which is not a good recipe for our thinned bench in Atlantic City. With a bye in AC, I think we could have a realistic opportunity to pick up 1 or 2 more "quality" wins - another Top 100 and maybe even another Top 50. The Top 50 is really critical, which makes VCU a real opportunity next weekend, since Top 50 wins is where our resume is the weakest.

[AC91]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER Special would be 4-0. 3-1 would be nice but even 2-2 would probably still keep us on the good side, assuming one of the losses is not GM. Problem with 2-2 is that is probably not good enough for a Top 4 finish and bye, which is not a good recipe for our thinned bench in Atlantic City. With a bye in AC, I think we could have a realistic opportunity to pick up 1 or 2 more "quality" wins - another Top 100 and maybe even another Top 50. The Top 50 is really critical, which makes VCU a real opportunity next weekend, since Top 50 wins is where our resume is the weakest.

Ummm...i hope you can get a refund on your hotel deposit in AC or have rented a car....the A10 tourney is in Brooklyn...

[NCkevi]

Too bad we don't have the days off DePaul does down the stretch - last 6 games and twice they get a full week off between games. Think it would have made a big difference Saturday

[frisco flyer]

Originally Posted by CE80 ruechalgrin was a student of Lunardi's. He probably brought him apples a couple of times and now he gets inside info.

From the look of it, it must've been Apple pie with cream on top.

[Glen Clark]

From reading Chris's posts about the selection process, it is apparent the RPI is an important indicator for the selection committee,

A-10 standings (with RPI ranking):

1) Virginia Commonwealth: 11-3, 21-6 (12)
2) Rhode Island: 11-3, 19-6 (65)
3) Davidson: 10-4, 19-6 (54)
4) Dayton: 10-4, 20-6 (37)
5) Massachusetts: 9-5, 16-11 (39)
6) Richmond: 8-6, 15-12 (75)
7) La Salle: 7-7, 15-12 (87)
8) St. Bonaventure: 7-7, 14-11 (122)
9) George Washington: 7-7, 17-10 (94)
10) Saint Joseph's: 5-9, 11-15 (188)
11) Duquesne: 4-10, 9-16 (239)
12) Fordham: 3-11, 8-17 (231)
13) George Mason: 3-11, 8-18 (223)
14) Saint Louis: 3-11, 11-16 (218)

Not much wiggle room for Davidson & Rhode Island, while UMass is in surprisingly good shape.

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Glen Clark From reading Chris's posts about the selection process, it is apparent the RPI is an important indicator for the selection committee, A-10 standings (with RPI ranking): 1) Virginia Commonwealth: 11-3, 21-6 (12) 2) Rhode Island: 11-3, 19-6 (65) 3) Davidson: 10-4, 19-6 (54) 4) Dayton: 10-4, 20-6 (37) 5) Massachusetts: 9-5, 16-11 (39) 6) Richmond: 8-6, 15-12 (75) 7) La Salle: 7-7, 15-12 (87) 8) St. Bonaventure: 7-7, 14-11 (122) 9) George Washington: 7-7, 17-10 (94) 10) Saint Joseph's: 5-9, 11-15 (188) 11) Duquesne: 4-10, 9-16 (239) 12) Fordham: 3-11, 8-17 (231) 13) George Mason: 3-11, 8-18 (223) 14) Saint Louis: 3-11, 11-16 (218) Not much wiggle room for Davidson & Rhode Island, while UMass is in surprisingly good shape. _____________________ Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

I don't think Davidson, Rhode Island and UMass can even think about an at large birth unless they are playing in the A10 tourney final.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[AC91]

Originally Posted by CE80 I don't think Davidson, Rhode Island and UMass can even think about an at large birth unless they are playing in the A10 tourney final.

Davidson still has to play GW, URI and VCU (plus Duq). I think they have a reasonable chance w/o the final if those games fall their way....

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by AC91 Davidson still has to play GW, URI and VCU (plus Duq). I think they have a reasonable chance w/o the final if those games fall their way....

You may be right. As with the Flyers a VCU win would be huge but a Duq loss would be bad too.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by Glen Clark From reading Chris's posts about the selection process, it is apparent the RPI is an important indicator for the selection committee, A-10 standings (with RPI ranking): 1) Virginia Commonwealth: 11-3, 21-6 (12) 2) Rhode Island: 11-3, 19-6 (65) 3) Davidson: 10-4, 19-6 (54) 4) Dayton: 10-4, 20-6 (37) 5) Massachusetts: 9-5, 16-11 (39) 6) Richmond: 8-6, 15-12 (75) 7) La Salle: 7-7, 15-12 (87) 8) St. Bonaventure: 7-7, 14-11 (122) 9) George Washington: 7-7, 17-10 (94) 10) Saint Joseph's: 5-9, 11-15 (188) 11) Duquesne: 4-10, 9-16 (239) 12) Fordham: 3-11, 8-17 (231) 13) George Mason: 3-11, 8-18 (223) 14) Saint Louis: 3-11, 11-16 (218) Not much wiggle room for Davidson & Rhode Island, while UMass is in surprisingly good shape. _____________________ Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

Dayton's RPI is 35. Actually Mass is not in good shape. They aren't in the first 4 out in anyone's bracket. Way too many bad losses and overall losses. The team that has the best chance for an at large bid is Davidson, but they have a gauntlet ahead of them.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Radar]

Blowhardi now has us as a #10 seed, Omaha, vs SD St (winner playing Wisconsin).

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[ruechalgrin]

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river

Patrick Stevens has us as a 9.