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  #501  
Old 03-02-2017, 11:46 AM
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Just got this email from a _avier buddy:


"Not sure what is going on but this photo accurately describes the team right now:



The announcer last night said "barring an epic collapse, XU is still a lock for the tournament". Well, X collapsed a few games ago and how they are in/on the bubble confuses me. Missing Sumner threw everything into a mess as X does not have a true PG on the team and Bluiett is still not 100%.
My dad mentioned that some projections have X playing the A-10 Champion UD Flyers. No Thanks.

What's your expert opinion: Coach Chris Mack or Archie to Indiana next year??? "
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  #502  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Just got this email from a _avier buddy:

What's your expert opinion: Coach Chris Mack or Archie to Indiana next year??? "
I grew up hearing my Grandmother say probably 100 times, I can always tell the character of my kids just by getting to know his friends. Sounds like the king needs better buddy's

Seriously, if the Indiana job opens up (I think it will) my prediction is Scott Drew. I'm not sure how much, if any, he was involved in that mess they call an Athletic Department down in Waco. I assume, but not positive he played HS ball in Indiana while his father was coaching, I know he attended Butler (didn't play basketball in college) and later coached on his Dad's valpo squads, so one may assume that he has strong Indiana roots, and frankly who wouldn't want to get away from that mess down in Waco; seems like every other month it gets a little uglier than the last month.
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  #503  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:09 PM
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Something that has not been discussed, is the very real possibility that the Atlantic 10 Conference cold still get 4 teams in two the NCAA tournament.

Perhaps not likely, but given the conference tournament
seeding with VCU and Rhody on the same side, I have to think a Rhode Island win this week, coupled with a Rhode Island victory over VCU in the semis, and Rhode Island loss in the final to any team not named Dayton, that I believe, would give the A10 four bids to NCAA TOURNAMENT.

Obviously none of us are rooting for that scenario; but if UD doesn't make the finals, I hope it leads to something positive for the conference. Afterall all the negative deragatory national talking headism from so called experts, wouldn't it be too **** funny if the A10 gets four bids, stealing one from the ACC no-less, and thus causing coach K's head to explode.
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  #504  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:11 PM
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I wouldn't mind seeing Coach K's head explode!
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  #505  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:20 PM
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Billy Donovan to Indiana.
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  #506  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Something that has not been discussed, is the very real possibility that the Atlantic 10 Conference cold still get 4 teams in two the NCAA tournament.

Perhaps not likely, but given the conference tournament
seeding with VCU and Rhody on the same side, I have to think a Rhode Island win this week, coupled with a Rhode Island victory over VCU in the semis, and Rhode Island loss in the final to any team not named Dayton, that I believe, would give the A10 four bids to NCAA TOURNAMENT.

Obviously none of us are rooting for that scenario; but if UD doesn't make the finals, I hope it leads to something positive for the conference. Afterall all the negative deragatory national talking headism from so called experts, wouldn't it be too **** funny if the A10 gets four bids, stealing one from the ACC no-less, and thus causing coach K's head to explode.
I think if someone not named Dayton, VCU or Rhode Island wins the A10 tourney, then the worst positioned of those three teams, (likely Rhody or VCU), gets left out. I don't see any way the A10 gets four. There is a reason they call the teams that unexpectedly win conference tournaments "bid stealers" and in your scenario I think the victim of the theft would be the A10.
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  #507  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I wouldn't mind seeing Coach K's head explode!
With all that hairspray holding everything together, I don't think it's possible.
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  #508  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:25 PM
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Dear King,

You might as well put the whole Norwood area in that dumbster. Maybe thin President Donald John Trump can send out tweet of national thanks to Xavier students for finally cleaning up their neighborhood.

As for IU, the only reason Mack goes there is for short-term job security...see Gregory to Georgia Tech. Mack is a better coach than Gregory, but it would be the same four to five year career saving move.

As for Ryan Miller, did either he or you see the UD Arena last night??? In current times, no one in their right mind leaves the Head Coaching position at UD to the same job at/in Bloomington. Totally bad idea!

But then Sir BeattyTown (huh?) Coach had never claimed to be right of mind; but rather "always right".
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  #509  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Dear King,

As for Ryan Miller, did either he or you see the UD Arena last night??? In current times, no one in their right mind leaves the Head Coaching position at UD to the same job at/in Bloomington. Totally bad idea!

But then Sir BeattyTown (huh?) Coach had never claimed to be right of mind; but rather "always right".
Last minute the Golden King was given seats behind the VCU bench and he took full advantage of the offer to entertain the Queen. He had great seats, and IMRO, the Arena has never been louder. I couldn't even hear the ref's whistles it was so loud. Unfortunately my Royal health didn't allow me to add to the noise, so I just enjoyed it.

King Rollo the Silent...OUT!
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  #510  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:39 PM
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Cool Maybe, or Maybe not.

Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
I think if someone not named Dayton, VCU or Rhode Island wins the A10 tourney, then the worst positioned of those three teams, (likely Rhody or VCU), gets left out. I don't see any way the A10 gets four. There is a reason they call the teams that unexpectedly win conference tournaments "bid stealers" and in your scenario I think the victim of the theft would be the A10.
Perhaps, but not necessarily. There are a whole bunch of soft bubble teams, and if Dayton, VCU, and Rhode Island all close regular season with a victory, my A10 tournament scenario likely puts all three of UD, VCU, and Rhody ahead of virtually all current last four in/next four out, in the at-large pecking order.

It could also come down to what team Rhody would lose to in such a final. The Rhody beating VCU part is no stretch of the imagination, assuming they both reach the semis; so this isn't exactly far fetched.
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  #511  
Old 03-02-2017, 12:44 PM
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This stuff doesn't happen in a vacuum either. It's so hard to project out what might happen to Dayton if they do this or that, because a lot of it will depend on the teams ahead/behind them too. Same for bubble teams - the results of others are almost as important.

Yes, I know this is obvious, but I just felt like it needed to be said somewhere.
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  #512  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:00 PM
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Mick Cronin said NCAA tournament seeding is all about money.

https://twitter.com/FOX19Jeremy/stat...37872721063939
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  #513  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:15 PM
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I think the A10 can get three to the NCAAT, if Rhody plays there way in in Pittsburgh. They are likely outside looking in before then.

But if someone other than those three win the tourney, I think it means either VCU or Rhody played their way out of the NCAAT.
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:30 PM
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Oh my, I thought about all the things I suspected Cronin might say; but wow, his statement was much more sinister than even what I had envisioned.

I give Cronin more respect than ever for having the courage to say it on camera.
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  #515  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:34 PM
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Bracketology is listing us as a 7 seed with Ok St, Wichita State and Creighton. Looking at the numbers, we're maybe the second best 7 seed right now. And wichita state really looks over seeded:

Creighton RPI 25
Top 25 Wins: 2
Top 50 Wins: 5
Top 100 Wins: 10

Dayton RPI 21
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 4
Top 100 Wins: 11

Ok St RPI 31
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 3
Top 100 Wins: 9

Wichita State RPI 41
Top 25 Wins: 0
Top 50 Wins: 1
Top 100 Wins: 2

But the six seeds aren't really that different than what we've got. St. Mary's and Iowa State seem the most vulnerable to moving downward:

Minnesota RPI 18
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 7
Top 100 Wins: 13

Wisconsin RPI 33
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 3
Top 100 Wins: 13

Iowa State RPI 28
Top 25 Wins: 2
Top 50 Wins: 5
Top 100 Wins: 10

St. Mary's RPI 17
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 2
Top 100 Wins: 7

I'd love to get to a six seed, but we'd likely need to beat both URI and VCU to get there at this point. And even then i'm not sure it will do. Just gotta stay out of that 8/9 game.
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  #516  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
What would be the effect of playing Presbyterian (346), Alabama A&M (350), Arkansas State, 341 or Central Conn. State (345). All teams that we have played in the last 5-6 or so years?
Running the rpi wizard.


Austin Peay, #260, was the worst opponent this year.

Assuming a win over GW:

Current rpi 21...current sos 74.

Eliminating St. Joseph's of Indiana, a d2 school, and adding #351 North Carolina A&T, moves the rpi to 22 and the sos to 86.

Eliminating St. Joseph's of Indiana, a d2 school, and adding #300 Charleston Southern, moves the rpi to 21 and the sos to 76.


So, the sos is hurt, but the rpi has almost no change.
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  #517  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:38 PM
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St Marys can be tricky. If they tank it hurts us, too. And if we are seen equal to them as far as seeding is concerned, wouldnt they get the nod over us for head to head (and at our place)?
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:41 PM
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Wichita State as a 7 seed with those numbers is a joke.
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  #519  
Old 03-02-2017, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Mick Cronin said NCAA tournament seeding is all about money.

https://twitter.com/FOX19Jeremy/stat...37872721063939
Mad props on that one. Long have I suspected this is the case.
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Mick Cronin said NCAA tournament seeding is all about money.

https://twitter.com/FOX19Jeremy/stat...37872721063939
Did not expect that level of openess / reality. I think the early season tournaments are related to $$$ so I understand how they run. The NCAAT shouldn't be run that way.
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:58 PM
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ironically, the early season part is good for UD since UD travels very well to those things and is recognized by ESPN who owns/run many of the bigger events.
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  #522  
Old 03-02-2017, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer'95 View Post
Bracketology is listing us as a 7 seed with Ok St, Wichita State and Creighton. Looking at the numbers, we're maybe the second best 7 seed right now. And wichita state really looks over seeded:

Creighton RPI 25
Top 25 Wins: 2
Top 50 Wins: 5
Top 100 Wins: 10

Dayton RPI 21
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 4
Top 100 Wins: 11

Ok St RPI 31
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 3
Top 100 Wins: 9

Wichita State RPI 41
Top 25 Wins: 0
Top 50 Wins: 1
Top 100 Wins: 2

But the six seeds aren't really that different than what we've got. St. Mary's and Iowa State seem the most vulnerable to moving downward:

Minnesota RPI 18
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 7
Top 100 Wins: 13

Wisconsin RPI 33
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 3
Top 100 Wins: 13

Iowa State RPI 28
Top 25 Wins: 2
Top 50 Wins: 5
Top 100 Wins: 10

St. Mary's RPI 17
Top 25 Wins: 1
Top 50 Wins: 2
Top 100 Wins: 7

I'd love to get to a six seed, but we'd likely need to beat both URI and VCU to get there at this point. And even then i'm not sure it will do. Just gotta stay out of that 8/9 game.
I am looking for Wisconsin to continue to falter. They are double digit favorite at home tonight against Iowa and then close at home to Minnesota. Go Iowa!!

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 03-02-2017 at 02:54 PM..
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Old 03-02-2017, 02:25 PM
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Recall when the UD WBB team was seeded #6 or #7 when they should have been a #3 or #4. They were the most underseeded team based on RPI in the last 10yrs of the NCAA tourney.

The committee will ultimately do what the committee wants. They have a pre-canned excuse for every oversight.

Very little difference between #6 and #11 seeds. Tourney is all about matchups and venue. Give me those favorables and Ill take a #11 every time. Other than avoiding the 8/9 seed line to avoid a #1 seed in round two, I think seeding is somewhat overrated.

Its about favorable scheme and personnel.
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  #524  
Old 03-02-2017, 02:26 PM
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I just think it is really nice that this year the only bubbles we need to concern ourselves with is the ones in the champagne.
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Old 03-02-2017, 02:38 PM
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Always liked Cronin about 473 times more than that jackwagon at X, who had the nerve to call out his crowd for being not as enthusiastic during the midst of a 5 game losing streak just before they made it 6 losses straight last night.

How about coaching your team, doofus.
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Old 03-02-2017, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Just got this email from a _avier buddy:


"Not sure what is going on but this photo accurately describes the team right now:



The announcer last night said "barring an epic collapse, XU is still a lock for the tournament". Well, X collapsed a few games ago and how they are in/on the bubble confuses me. Missing Sumner threw everything into a mess as X does not have a true PG on the team and Bluiett is still not 100%.
Normally I'd be wanting to put that fire out, but considering who's burning down .... let her burn BABY.
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Old 03-02-2017, 03:29 PM
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Old 03-02-2017, 03:37 PM
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Lightbulb Seed v. RPI

Originally Posted by Flyer'95 View Post

I'd love to get to a six seed, but we'd likely need to beat both URI and VCU to get there at this point. And even then i'm not sure it will do. Just gotta stay out of that 8/9 game.
You could be right, but RPI and seed are not synonymous.
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Old 03-02-2017, 03:42 PM
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Maybe not synonymous, but according to this article, they correlate more often than they don't.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...madness-teams/
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Old 03-02-2017, 04:16 PM
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I remembered doing this in a rudimentary way a few years back. I looked at a few years worth of brackets. The RPI correlated to an absurd number of Power conference teams. Power conference teams were 90% of the time seeded at or above what their RPI would suggest. Non power conference teams were seeded at what their RPI would suggest far less often. Maybe 40% of the time. And they almost never are seeded higher than their RPI would suggest, unless it's to give a power 5 team an advantage. (i.e. making us a four seed and sending us to spokane so that notre dame could be a 5 seed and play closer to home).
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Old 03-02-2017, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer'95 View Post
I remembered doing this in a rudimentary way a few years back. I looked at a few years worth of brackets. The RPI correlated to an absurd number of Power conference teams. Power conference teams were 90% of the time seeded at or above what their RPI would suggest. Non power conference teams were seeded at what their RPI would suggest far less often. Maybe 40% of the time. And they almost never are seeded higher than their RPI would suggest, unless it's to give a power 5 team an advantage. (i.e. making us a four seed and sending us to spokane so that notre dame could be a 5 seed and play closer to home).
This thread is somewhat relatable:
http://udpride.com/forums/showthread...t=seed-madness
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
St Marys can be tricky. If they tank it hurts us, too. And if we are seen equal to them as far as seeding is concerned, wouldnt they get the nod over us for head to head (and at our place)?

Well, we were missing Pollard & Cunningham . . .

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Old 03-03-2017, 07:38 AM
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We are up to #21 on the Dance Card, that would seem to equate to a 6 seed, almost a 5.
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Old 03-03-2017, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
We are up to #21 on the Dance Card, that would seem to equate to a 6 seed, almost a 5.
I am not sure why people keep associating a seed with the Dance Card. They are not a true bracketology. They are not predicting seeding. They are ranking the teams based on chance to get an at large based off of previous selection committee decisions. It says as much right on the website.

Proof of the is Butler and Baylor and 3 and 4 and Gonzaga at 14.
Butler aND Baylor are not in the top 10 of any poll and won't be one seeds. Gonzaga is still top 5 of every poll and still has a legit shot at a 1 seed.
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Well, we were missing Pollard & Cunningham . . .

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Missing players only matters when you're a big school...You can have 4-5 HS AA freshman players to go along with multiple upperclassmen kids who were HS AA players and are now all conference players and if 1-2 of the freshman goes down, as what happen to Duke this year, all we hear is the fawning and just how Duke is short-handed, etc..
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:11 AM
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5 seed

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to...t-predictions/
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
5 seed

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to...t-predictions/
The other 5-seeds: UVa, UC and Purdue.

Royally good company.
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:21 AM
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Is record in the last 10 still a factor?
Creighton still sitting on the sixth line after Watson's injury seems a little ridiculous
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:25 AM
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Apparently not: UVA is 4-6 last 10.
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:28 AM
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Old 03-03-2017, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
I am not sure why people keep associating a seed with the Dance Card. They are not a true bracketology. They are not predicting seeding. They are ranking the teams based on chance to get an at large based off of previous selection committee decisions. It says as much right on the website.

Proof of the is Butler and Baylor and 3 and 4 and Gonzaga at 14.
Butler aND Baylor are not in the top 10 of any poll and won't be one seeds. Gonzaga is still top 5 of every poll and still has a legit shot at a 1 seed.
I know Dance Card says they are not predicting seeds but they are ranking teams in likelihood of getting selected but wouldn't that essentially be the S curve? Cronin said that many seeds are ticket sales based so that may affect seeding too. As far the polls go, I don't take much stock in that. We know from SMU's snub a couple of years ago that the committee thinks differently than the pollsters, especially when it comes to the non P5. I think that will affect Gonzaga although they may have enough "street cred' now to overcome that.
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Old 03-03-2017, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Is record in the last 10 still a factor?
Creighton still sitting on the sixth line after Watson's injury seems a little ridiculous
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Record in last 10 is no longer considered, but injuries are considered. Specifically, if a player has a season ending injury, how they performed with the roster they will have in the tournament is considered.

From an cbssports.com article last year on the subject of season-ending injuries:
"There have been a couple of notable cases of that. The most recent was in 2010, when Purdue was well on its way to a Big Ten championship and a No. 1 seed. Those plans were derailed in late February when Robbie Hummel tore an ACL at Minnesota. Purdue wasn't quite the same after that, and even though they were able to win the Big Ten regular season title and put together a profile worth of a No. 2 seed, the committee docked them to a No. 4 seed.
The most famous instance of something like this was in 2000, when Kenyon Martin of Cincinnati broke his leg in the first few minutes of the Bearcats' first round game in the Conference USA tournament. Cincinnati was the No. 1 team in the country at the time and Martin was the national player of the year. The Bearcats lost that game to Saint Louis and not only did the committee not keep them as the overall No. 1, they made them a No. 2 seed."

http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...s-suspensions/

It will certainly be interesting to see what the committee does with X and Creighton this year.
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Old 03-03-2017, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I know Dance Card says they are not predicting seeds but they are ranking teams in likelihood of getting selected but wouldn't that essentially be the S curve? Cronin said that many seeds are ticket sales based so that may affect seeding too. As far the polls go, I don't take much stock in that. We know from SMU's snub a couple of years ago that the committee thinks differently than the pollsters, especially when it comes to the non P5. I think that will affect Gonzaga although they may have enough "street cred' now to overcome that.
Yes, and those sites that do tout themselves as ranking on the S curve, such as teamrankings.com have the Flyers at 6 or 7.
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Old 03-03-2017, 09:32 AM
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From NCAA March Madness twitter:

"DEEP STAT: The Badgers tie the single-season record for most consecutive losses by a ranked team against an unranked team."

Their top 25 ranking is ours when we win tomorrow.
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Old 03-03-2017, 09:53 AM
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I haven't really paid much attention to XU since we don't play them anymore. I saw somewhere that they dropped out of the rankings, so I have been watching for their news here and there. When I saw they had lost #6 in a row, I just had to check out Musketeer Madness to see the meltdown. Yikes! The whining about playing short-handed!
PULEEZE! I think they have more than 7 players and they've gone down the tubes and may not make the NIT. Poor Babies!
Sucking it up and getting the job done two years ago is a big factor in our seniors' being where they are today. Playing most of a season with 7 players and going 25-8, then winning their conference the next two years and making the NCAA both years gives new meaning to the old saying, "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger."
We have faced so much subsequent adversity with Steve's tragic death, injuries to Kendall, Josh, Charles, Kyle, and Darrell have caused the rest of the players to make up for those empty spots and they've come through with flying colors due to their "Next man up" attitude.
Other teams with depth problems--not so much.
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Old 03-03-2017, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
From NCAA March Madness twitter:

"DEEP STAT: The Badgers tie the single-season record for most consecutive losses by a ranked team against an unranked team."

Their top 25 ranking is ours when we win tomorrow.
I'm afraid Dick jr is going to grab that.
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Old 03-03-2017, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
From NCAA March Madness twitter:

"DEEP STAT: The Badgers tie the single-season record for most consecutive losses by a ranked team against an unranked team.".
Playing Minnesota on Saturday could just add to this streak. Of course. a Gopher win could have them moving into the top 25.
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Old 03-03-2017, 10:08 AM
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Now listed as a lock on ESPN's Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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Old 03-03-2017, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Just got this email from a _avier buddy:


"Not sure what is going on but this photo accurately describes the team right now:



The announcer last night said "barring an epic collapse, XU is still a lock for the tournament". Well, X collapsed a few games ago and how they are in/on the bubble confuses me. Missing Sumner threw everything into a mess as X does not have a true PG on the team and Bluiett is still not 100%.
My dad mentioned that some projections have X playing the A-10 Champion UD Flyers. No Thanks.

What's your expert opinion: Coach Chris Mack or Archie to Indiana next year??? "
I don't think that's accurate. The fire is actually being contained to the dumpster. If Xavier wins their next two games and then loses to Butler in the quarterfinals, then they will have beaten no one but DePaul since February 4th.

Well, sometimes things just don't go the way you want.

I'm honestly to a point to where I'm able to not let it bother me. Now, that's because there are so many other things in my life that do bother me when they go wrong that I probably just don't have room for Xavier's basketball team to bother me. I enjoy it when they're good, and I wish they were good, but don't sweat it too much when they're not. There are certainly things in my life (and certainly in my work) that make me bang my head against the wall, but strangely enough X isn't one of them. Which is actually kind of funny because they definitely used to be, and when they were they typically weren't nearly as good nearly as often.

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Old 03-03-2017, 10:19 AM
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No way Wisconsin should be ranked or seeded ahead of us.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...on/DAYTON/WISC

Look at them compared to us:

RPI - UD
SOS - UD
Top 50 wins - UD

Lunardi moved Wisconsin to a 5 seed after they won beat a bad Ohio State team at home on 1/12.

They then won 7 in a row against these meh teams:
Mich
@ Minn (OT)
Penn St
Rutgers (OT)
@ Ill
Indiana
@ Nebraska (OT)

They were rewarded with a move from 5 to 3.

Since then, they have lost 5 of 6 (with a good win vs Maryland)
He currently has them at a 6.

Let's see where he had them after a bad home loss to Iowa where they looked awful.
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Old 03-03-2017, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
No way Wisconsin should be ranked or seeded ahead of us.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...on/DAYTON/WISC

Look at them compared to us:

RPI - UD
SOS - UD
Top 50 wins - UD

Lunardi moved Wisconsin to a 5 seed after they won beat a bad Ohio State team at home on 1/12.

They then won 7 in a row against these meh teams:
Mich
@ Minn (OT)
Penn St
Rutgers (OT)
@ Ill
Indiana
@ Nebraska (OT)

They were rewarded with a move from 5 to 3.

Since then, they have lost 5 of 6 (with a good win vs Maryland)
He currently has them at a 6.

Let's see where he had them after a bad home loss to Iowa where they looked awful.
True, but, to be fair, if we beat Minn @ Minn, Ill @ Ill, and Neb @ Neb, along with Indiana and Michigan as a part of our pre-conference schedule we would be demanding a top 5 ranking. That's despite the fact that we know most of the B10 has no clothes.
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Old 03-03-2017, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I don't think that's accurate. The fire is actually being contained to the dumpster. If Xavier wins their next two games and then loses to Butler in the quarterfinals, then they will have beaten no one but DePaul since February 4th.

Well, sometimes things just don't go the way you want.

I'm honestly to a point to where I'm able to not let it bother me. Now, that's because there are so many other things in my life that do bother me when they go wrong that I probably just don't have room for Xavier's basketball team to bother me. I enjoy it when they're good, and I wish they were good, but don't sweat it too much when they're not. There are certainly things in my life (and certainly in my work) that make me bang my head against the wall, but strangely enough X isn't one of them. Which is actually kind of funny because they definitely used to be, and when they were they typically weren't nearly as good nearly as often.
Welcome to adulthood. I'm not always there but I tend to be there more and more these days.
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Old 03-03-2017, 03:07 PM
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Xavier currently listed as Last 4 In for Lunardi, and Rhode Island is his first team out.
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Old 03-03-2017, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
Now listed as a lock on ESPN's Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
I know that means zilch in the tournament pairings world, but that has me irrationally happy.
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Old 03-04-2017, 12:04 AM
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Patrick Stevens who has been in the top 10% of most accurate bracketologists has Dayton as a 6 but admits this is the Flyers' ceiling. Would love this draw, we can dream.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.03d11f947856
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Old 03-04-2017, 09:50 AM
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USA Today Bracketologist has us at a 6 seed

"One of the most accurate Bracketologists with 10+ year experience. 98% accuracy rate since 2005.
Inaugural Super10 Mock Selection Committee member sponsored by the NCAA and Turner Sports."

http://www.bracketwag.com/

Last 4 in - Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, USC
First 4 out - Iowa, Wake Forest, Georgia, Ohio State

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Old 03-04-2017, 03:08 PM
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Creighton still a 5/6 seed baffles me. Due to the Watson injury, would have them a bubble team right now.

Since Watson was injured, 5-6. But 4/5 wins versus Georgetown 1x, St John's 1x, and DePaul 2x. Did win @Butler during this stretch. But take away DePaul and St. Johm's and 2-6 since injured, lose today and 2-7 since Watson injured not counting DePaul/St. John's.

BTW, down 44-33 to Marquette now with 4 to go in 1H.
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Old 03-04-2017, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Always liked Cronin about 473 times more than that jackwagon at X, who had the nerve to call out his crowd for being not as enthusiastic during the midst of a 5 game losing streak just before they made it 6 losses straight last night.

How about coaching your team, doofus.
Don't hold back, priceg75! Tell us how you REALLY feel!

And, BTW...I agree.
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Old 03-04-2017, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Creighton still a 5/6 seed baffles me. Due to the Watson injury, would have them a bubble team right now.

Since Watson was injured, 5-6. But 4/5 wins versus Georgetown 1x, St John's 1x, and DePaul 2x. Did win @Butler during this stretch. But take away DePaul and St. Johm's and 2-6 since injured, lose today and 2-7 since Watson injured not counting DePaul/St. John's.

BTW, down 44-33 to Marquette now with 4 to go in 1H.
Watching Demons/Eggs on Fox Sports, and they just posted a graphic showing 7 BE teams in the field, but only 3 with seeds of 6 or higher. The other 4 were all between 9-11, which makes them "bubbly" IMHO.
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Old 03-04-2017, 03:30 PM
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Using Bracket Matrix - we are trailing these teams for 5/6.

Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Minnesota
SMU
St Marys
Creighton
Iowa State
Maryland
Wisconsin

How many of these teams do we have a realistic chance of passing with a W today and a good showing in the A10 tourney?
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Old 03-04-2017, 04:12 PM
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Depends on what those teams do, but I'm guessing we have a chance to pass @ half of them, at best. P5 bias will have something to do with it, but most of those teams are playing fairly well right now, too. We'll know within the next 8 days.
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Old 03-04-2017, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Using Bracket Matrix - we are trailing these teams for 5/6.

Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Minnesota
SMU
St Marys
Creighton
Iowa State
Maryland
Wisconsin

How many of these teams do we have a realistic chance of passing with a W today and a good showing in the A10 tourney?
Honestly, probably none of them except for maybe SMU. The teams you're playing in the A10 Tournament are all behind you, so it's hard to move up when everyone you face is ranked below you.
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Old 03-04-2017, 04:38 PM
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Andy Katz tweet: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/838137654621372418

"Dan Gavitt said it and I believe it: Number of losses doesn't matter. Who you beat. There is no rule for number of losses."

Perfectly summing up how the deck is stacked against us in less than 140 characters.
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Using Bracket Matrix - we are trailing these teams for 5/6.

Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Minnesota
SMU
St Marys
Creighton
Iowa State
Maryland
Wisconsin

How many of these teams do we have a realistic chance of passing with a W today and a good showing in the A10 tourney?
Think Dayton can pass Creighton, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Iowa State. Just don't see the Flyers passing St Mary's, Cincy, ND, or SMU.

Maryland won today and Creighton lost.

By the way, need to win out or only lose in A-10 finals for a shot at a 6 seed so really tough. Even @GW only 70% chance of winning.
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:18 PM
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Wisky is freaking #44 in the RPI and lost 5 of their last 6. Non Con SOS of 268 compared to Dayton's #55 -- even our OVERALL SOS is better. UD with more Top-50 wins and 11 Top-100 wins compared to UW's 13. Did I mention UDs RPI is #21 and not #44?

Wisky has been nationally ranked in every single poll this year. Dayton has not been ranked in a single poll.

Either the mathematics counts for something or it doesnt. The cherrypicking of data must stop.

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Old 03-04-2017, 05:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Wisky is freaking #44 in the RPI and lost 5 of their last 6. Non Con SOS of 268 compared to Dayton's #55 -- even our OVERALL SOS is better. UD with more Top-50 wins and 11 Top-100 wins compared to UW's 13. Did I mention UDs RPI is #21 and not #44?

Wisky has been nationally ranked in every single poll this year. Dayton has not been ranked in a single poll.

Either the mathematics counts for something or it doesnt. The cherrypicking of data must stop.

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Old 03-04-2017, 05:33 PM
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TEAM A: W/L: 22-08, RPI: 044, SOS: 070, NC-SOS: 268, Top-50: 03-06, Top-100: 13-08
TEAM B: W/L: 24-05, RPI: 021, SOS: 065, NC-SOS: 054, Top-50: 04-03, Top-100: 11-04

By almost any measure, Team B not only has a better resume, but a MUCH better resume -- chiefly in RPI, Non-Con SOS (committee emphasis), and efficiency in Top-100 victories.

Team A has been ranked in every national poll this year. Team B hasnt been ranked in any poll this year.
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Old 03-04-2017, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Andy Katz tweet: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/838137654621372418

"Dan Gavitt said it and I believe it: Number of losses doesn't matter. Who you beat. There is no rule for number of losses."

Perfectly summing up how the deck is stacked against us in less than 140 characters.
In other words, your name matters; your record is irrelevant.

Of course, Dave Gavitt was Commissioner of the old Big East when the talking heads used to use this kind of logic when explaining why a Big East team with a 17-13 record would make the tournament instead of a 26-3 team from, say, the Patriot League:
Q-Why take Georgetown over, say, Boston University?
A-Look at who Georgetown played! They played UConn! They played Syracuse! They played Pitt!
Q-Well, who did UConn play?
A-They played Pitt! They played Syracuse! They played...

And so on, and so on.
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Old 03-04-2017, 10:30 PM
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Interestingly, doesn't look like we'll even drop in the RPI due to the loss at GW. May hurt in terms of seeding, though. A second sub-100 RPI loss. Unless GW can pull out a couple wins in Pittsburgh.
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Old 03-04-2017, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Interestingly, doesn't look like we'll even drop in the RPI due to the loss at GW. May hurt in terms of seeding, though. A second sub-100 RPI loss. Unless GW can pull out a couple wins in Pittsburgh.
Lose Friday, 8-9 seed
Lose Saturday, 7-8 seed
Win it all*, 6-7 seed

*Please do this
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Old 03-04-2017, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Lose Friday, 8-9 seed
Lose Saturday, 7-8 seed
Win it all*, 6-7 seed

*Please do this
Wish you were right...Simon Says ... subtract one from each seed #.
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UDTradition View Post
Wish you were right...Simon Says ... subtract one from each seed #.
Our RPI will go to 29-30 now. The other 7-9 seeds, as per Bracket Matrix, havent exactly been lighting the world on fire, either.

7 Dayton
7 MD - needed a buzzer beater to win at home
7 Wisconsin - lost 5 of 6, plays MN tomorrow
7 South Carolina - lost @ Miss

8 OkState - lost 2 in a row
8 Miami - lost 2 in a row
8 VaTech - lost at home to WF today
8 Northwestern - home vs Purdue tomorrow

9 Arkansas - won home vs Georgia
9 Mich - lost @ NW Wed, @ Nebraska tomorrow
9 VCU - Beat GM
9 Wich St - continue to win against bad teams

What do you guys think?
What is our seed with:

Loss Fri
Loss Sat
Loss Sun
Win Sun
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Our RPI will go to 29-30 now. The other 7-9 seeds, as per Bracket Matrix, havent exactly been lighting the world on fire, either.

What do you guys think?
What is our seed with:

Loss Fri
Loss Sat
Loss Sun
Win Sun
10 . . . 9 . . . 8 . . . 7 (still an outside shot at a 6 if we beat Rhody and VCU to win the A10).
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Mick Cronin said NCAA tournament seeding is all about money.

https://twitter.com/FOX19Jeremy/stat...37872721063939
Have liked that guy ever since he called-out his own players after the Crosstown Smackdown. Didn't see Chri Smack do that. Wouldn't have seen Huggy Bear do that, either. Won my respect, and converted me from a UC-Hata.

Speak truth to power, Mick!
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:38 PM
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Originally Posted by 312to937 View Post
10 . . . 9 . . . 8 . . . 7 (still an outside shot at a 6 if we beat Rhody and VCU to win the A10).
Agree completely. Every win from now until next Sunday afternoon can raise us a Seed level. Every loss can drop us just as far. Probably firmly on the 8/9 line unless we (a) lose in the A-10 quarters or (b) win the whole, stinkin' thing. Soooo...

Let's just...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCxkEPlVLzs
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Interestingly, doesn't look like we'll even drop in the RPI due to the loss at GW. May hurt in terms of seeding, though. A second sub-100 RPI loss. Unless GW can pull out a couple wins in Pittsburgh.
The way Gee-Dub has been playing lately...anything's possible.
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Old 03-05-2017, 01:40 AM
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Dayton drops from a 7 to a 8 in Lunardi's btacket. Kenpom rankings in parentheses.

Much rather have Arkansas (39) and Baylor (10) than Michigan (27) and North Carolina (4) ...... Dayton is 34.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas.../iteration/247
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Old 03-05-2017, 08:10 AM
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Slow down a bit folks. You are all putting too much emphasis on ONE game. as to Lunardi, I put very little emphasis there on his seedlings as he is ranked in the middle of "bracketologists" overall in seeding teams. I think folks get too caught up in recency. Last night's game was 1/30 of the season. We are probably right where we started before last night since we are being compared to other teams around us.
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Old 03-05-2017, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Someone in another thread posted we need 5 wins the rest of the way to be a lock. I agree. Anyone who thinks we're close to a lock needs to take a closer look. The advanced metrics seem to like us and we have a gaudy record. However, facts only get twisted for the Power 5/Big East. Right now we have one tenuous Top 50 win. Depending on Rhode Island performance and a VCU win we could have 4. We need Vandy and Rhody to finish strong. We do not have a huge win away from UD Arena to hang our cap on.

So, i can tell you right now, we are out if we lose the VCU game and dont win the A-10 Tournament. Win GMU,VCU,@George Washington and lose @Davidson and win 2 in Pittsburgh we are in. Im probably jaded from 2 years ago, in fact i know i am. It would be a **** shame if these Seniors had to play in the NIT.

At the end of the day i think we'll make it. In my opinion winning @Davidson is the key. They cannot stop Pollard inside, he will eat them alive. And Cooke and Kyle can do their work on the only 2 scoring threats they have, Gibbs and Aldridge.

Prediction: Beat GMU,Beat Davidson,Beat VCU, Lose GW. Win the A-10 Tournament. #9 Seed.

We will drop the #1 seed and make the Final Four. After that who knows.

Bookmark this and tell me how smart i am at the end of March.
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Cocaine is a powerful drug.........


Not happy about it. Now I'm moving on to hoping my seed projection is wrong.
And yes, ill update this until i prove your cocaine comment to be uninformed.
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Old 03-05-2017, 09:44 AM
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After GW...

Dance Card - no change
Lunardi - 7 to 8 (changed places with Miami, who also lost but did so @ FlaState)
USAToday - 6 to 7 (changed places with Maryland, who won at home)
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Old 03-05-2017, 11:14 AM
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So UD is still #21 in RPI. Some people act like UD is playing in a vacuum. We lost a road game to a decent team, so what. It could cost us a seed number, or not.

Refer to The UC coach's statements for the biggest effect, and the next biggest, the committee will do what it can to favor the football schools, not a loss at GW.
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Old 03-05-2017, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Our RPI will go to 29-30 now.
Not sure how you get this. Chris still has us at #21.
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Old 03-05-2017, 05:26 PM
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My prediction

UD will be a seven seed and Arizona will be a two seed in the same bracket.

You know the NCAA loves to manipulate match ups. How cute...
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Old 03-05-2017, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Not sure how you get this. Chris still has us at #21.
Well, because that was my guess after the game and before Chris posted it?
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Old 03-05-2017, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Not happy about it. Now I'm moving on to hoping my seed projection is wrong.
And yes, ill update this until i prove your cocaine comment to be uninformed.
The cocaine comment wasn't referring to your prediction. It was referring to your statement that we had to beat VCU, otherwise win the A10 tournament to get in. I stand by my comment in those regards. If we're sitting at an 8 seed, even a 7, right now, no way that a loss to VCU would have dropped us 3 or 4 seed lines to out.

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Old 03-05-2017, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
The cocaine comment wasn't referring to your prediction. It was referring to your statement that we had to beat VCU, otherwise win the A10 tournament to get in. I stand by my comment in those regards. If we're sitting at an 8 seed, even a 7, right now, no way that a loss to VCU would have dropped us 3 or 4 seed lines to out.
You are correct. Too many people get caught up on one game in a 30 game season. I don't understand why. The selection committee has stated time and again it's your "entire body of work" that is being evaluated. Maybe if you were being considered for the last spot a single game would matter, but when you have played the schedule the Flyers have and are consistently mentioned in the 6/7/8 seed line, one game will have little impact.
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Old 03-05-2017, 10:03 PM
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/interpr...212637068.html

Dayton Flyers (24-6; KenPom: 34 SOS: 21 Current Seed: No. 7) – Presumably too comfortable after nailing down the Atlantic 10 title earlier in the week against VCU, the Flyers traveled to George Washington, crashed and burned. The setback brought unwanted attention to their resume, a profile lacking gusto. Yes, regardless of its performance in the A-10 Tourney, Dayton is dancing, but where it’s ultimately seeded may shock people. It sports quality wins against RPI top-50 opponents Vanderbilt, Rhode Island (twice) and the aforementioned Rams, however, downfalls versus GW, UMass and Nebraska, all 80-plus RPI squads, are smears. Get bounced early this week and it could attract a tossup 8-9 matchup in Round 1. Still, the Flyers’ continuity, chemistry and team-wide balance makes them dangerous. They rank inside the top-50 in offense and defensive efficiency and, because of Scoochie Smith’s stellar play, are one of the best assist-to-field-goal clubs in the country. Collectively, they also convert over 38 percent from distance. Archie Miller is a brilliant tactician who’s experienced considerable postseason success, but the Flyers are not nearly as battle tested as their record or name may indicate.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:07 AM
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Just heard a good interview with Will Wade on College Sports Nation on Sirius/XM. He was a great advocate for the A10 as a whole and saying the national media doesn't give the league enough kudos or even pay attention to it enough. He also said the problem for the league hasn't been getting deserving teams into the tournament but how vastly under seeded the teams are year in year out. AMEN to that!

On another note, when asked about being mentioned for other jobs, he said he is a guy that likes being comfortable and that he is very comfortable at VCU. Of course this could be coach speak but if not maybe it means he will be at VCU for a while, which, love him or hate him, is a good thing for the A10.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:08 AM
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ESPN Bracketology is updated, we are an 8 seed. Here are the teams we are trailing for a 7 seed and who they play in their conference tournaments:

Big 10 has a 7 (Maryland), they play winner of Iowa/Indiana
SEC has 7 (South Carolina), they play winner of MSST/LSU vs Alabama
Big East has a 7 (Creighton), they play Providence (10 seed ESPN)
Big 12 has a 7 (Oklahoma State), they play Iowa State (6 seed ESPN) so if they win it will be hard to pass them.
ACC has an 8 just above us in the S-Curve (Va Tech), they play winner of WF/BC. (WF is 11 seed ESPN)

1. Obviously, for any of this to matter we need to win Friday and Saturday at a minimum, and likely Sunday as well be in the conversation for a 7.
2. Any of these teams losing opens up a path for us
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:35 AM
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Xavier falls 2 more spots on the Dance Card without even playing a game....down to #45.



http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:50 AM
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I am still sort of not understanding all the respect for Middle Tennessee State...rpi 37...SOS 147...3 bad losses...lost to #242...26-4, only 4 losses must be the reason.

2-1 vs. top 50...4-1 vs. top 100.

#34 on the Dance Card, pretty much a lock.

Bracketmatrix has them as an 11 seed though.

Pretty big discrepancy between the DC, 9 seed, and BM, 11 seed.

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Old 03-06-2017, 11:45 AM
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My suggestion to Middle Tenn St is to win their conference tourney. If they lose I would bet that this would be a Dance Card miss.
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Old 03-06-2017, 11:45 AM
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#242 UTEP, I don't know the story on them, they started out the year beyond terrible, several bad losses at home to 300+ rpi schools, then after starting out conference play 2/ 4 straight road games (and losses) they found themselves and have been doing better (12-3 down the stretch) though mostly against bad teams.

Their other 2 bad losses are not "terrible" though both at home, early in the season.

They crushed Vandy at home, lost to VCU on the road by less than UD lost to them and have a handful of "sneaky" good wins over other similarly ranged programs. I've long been an advocate that no matter how good you are as a team, you are going to have "off days". When you are P5, that off day ends up in a blow out loss to a top 30 program on the road, and its quickly forgotten. When you are in the A10 or CUSA, that off day results in a loss at UMass or UTEP and looks disastrous. I personally hope and think that they should be willing for forgive one or two of those a season in conferences w/ as many land mines as CUSA and the A10 has.
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Old 03-06-2017, 11:59 AM
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Medford - I don't disagree with your logic but I don't think the current committee chair does. If it is only who you beat that is important, I am not sure MTS has done enough. This thing is continuing to lean toward the P5 and BE. Those schools probably say there is enough of a Cinderella element with every conf champion getting in. The other non-P5/BE programs like UD, VCU, Wich St, Cincy, UConn, SMU, etc. have their chances to get their wins against better competition. Everyone else? Win your tourney if you want to get in.

The real college basketball fan rather see the borderline cases go to the non-P5/BE teams but not the ones that make the tourney selections.
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Old 03-06-2017, 12:13 PM
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Interesting Dance Card as of this morning.

Last 4 in:
44 - Marquette
45 - _avier
46 - Rhode Island
47 - Illinois

Last 4 out:
48 - UNC Wilmington
49 - Nevada
50 - Illinois State
51 - Syracuse

If that holds (and it won't, but...):
- Imagine 2 Big East schools in the play-in round, on The University of Dayton's (aka "the bridesmaid's") home court!
- Another game at The Arena for Rhody. Who'll wear light blue & cheer for an A-10 brutha?
- Finally, Maverick Morgan will see what it's like to run-out on Blackburn Court as a collegian.

Just some random thoughts while I'm waiting for an Excel file to finish subtotaling...
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Old 03-06-2017, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Medford - I don't disagree with your logic but I don't think the current committee chair does. If it is only who you beat that is important, I am not sure MTS has done enough. This thing is continuing to lean toward the P5 and BE. Those schools probably say there is enough of a Cinderella element with every conf champion getting in. The other non-P5/BE programs like UD, VCU, Wich St, Cincy, UConn, SMU, etc. have their chances to get their wins against better competition. Everyone else? Win your tourney if you want to get in.

The real college basketball fan rather see the borderline cases go to the non-P5/BE teams but not the ones that make the tourney selections.
I agree that is how it is, but it is not how I want it. Honestly, if they would just implement the 'you have to be .500 or better in your conference' rule, I think it would clear up a bunch of things for deserving mid majors. There are usually not that many in any given season, and w/ the increase in conference games and expansion in conferences, it seems the sub .500 conference team is more common. Mainly I just hate that they seemingly ignore the number of opportunities P5 schools get vs mid majors, with a significant % of those chances coming on their home court.
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Old 03-06-2017, 01:10 PM
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I agree. I don't care what conference you play in, there are many landmines. Expecting teams from CUSA, Horizon, MVC to go undefeated is unrealistic. The gap between number 30 and number 240 playing at home on any given night is not big enough to rule teams out because of a "bad loss". One or two of those should not destroy your body of work.

I at least give credit to Vandy for being willing to play MTSU. Very few would, limiting their chances to pick up high quality wins.

MTSU is capable of making the Sweet 16.
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  #598  
Old 03-06-2017, 01:21 PM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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Who is getting in that is sub .500?

Illinois? I wouldn't bet on them. Currently they are in last 4 on some brackets. It will be interesting. Does committee leave them out so they don't have to listen to the noise or do they put them in because they want to make it clear .500 + or - means nothing?
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  #599  
Old 03-06-2017, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Who is getting in that is sub .500?

Illinois? I wouldn't bet on them. Currently they are in last 4 on some brackets. It will be interesting. Does committee leave them out so they don't have to listen to the noise or do they put them in because they want to make it clear .500 + or - means nothing?
Kansas St. has been near the bubble, they are 8-10. Many have Illinois in the last 4 in or last 4 out and they are 8-10. If it wasn't for a good finish to get to 9-9, Wake was under .500. X was 8-9 until they beat DePaul on Saturday.
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Old 03-06-2017, 02:08 PM
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What's the record for most At-Large bids to teams with RPI's >50? This year there may be a lot.
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