SLU hit the main points. UD routinely recruited at a high level -- by high I mean routinely having better talent than other programs in the A10 at most positions, bringing in difference makers, and flirting with NCAA at-large talent on a yearly basis.
But the talent in the recruiting classes slipped the last couple of seasons before Golz arrived. We saw this in Tucker's last season actually. UD finished down in the A10 standings, but went on an amazing run and won the A10 Tourney title by clobbering 18-1-1
SJU by a 7-0 score. Still, many players on that team are now juniors and seniors. The remaining difference makers on that squad -- Leedom, Kiehl, O'Malley, etc all graduated.
So the slip was occurring even before Golz arrived, but Tucker had a few studs left over (Nicole Waters, Ashley Campbell) to hide weaknesses elsewhere on the field. When those All-A10 talents and literally Flyer Greats graduated, there was no longer a luxury of a couple legitimate elite college players capable of hiding the deficiencies of teammates struggling to compete at the A10 level on a nightly basis.
When Golz arrived, much of the 2018 and 2019 classes were already committed -- commitments from the prior staff. I suppose Golz could have told them to go pound sand but that's not the Dayton way of doing things. To his credit he's honored most if not all of those prior commitments while having little in the way of money or roster spots left over to sprinkle his own recruits in.
Last year's recruiting class was the first in maybe 15 years (or maybe ever in the A10?) not to put at least one kid on the A10 All Rookie squad. In many years we put 2-3 kids on that All Rookie team. That spoke to the weakness of the recruiting class (should be noted that Olivia Brown has been injured all year and was a HS All American). This year will be the second year in a row nobody will make the All Rookie squad. So we're dealing with a situation -- twice -- that's literally never happened before. Combine that with the frosh and sophs from the 2016 A10 Title team that are now juniors and seniors and virtually none of them have ever been recognized by the A10 for their soccer prowess. In short, the upperclass lacks talent and the lower classes lack talent.
The reality is the "rebuilding process" hasn't even begun yet because the frosh and soph classes at the moment are so weak. It will be two more full seasons until that money and those roster spots open up. And the current juniors that will be seniors in 2019 have no difference makers either -- kids Golz did not recruit either.
Golz' hands are pretty much tied until the roster turns over and things purge from the program. His team's shortcomings CANNOT be resolved through coaching. Anyone that thinks they can knows absolutely nothing about soccer. He's dealing with personnel that -- aside from 2-3 players -- were and are about one full step in competition above their ability level. You can't teach the things the team lacks -- spatial awareness, vision, anticipation, speed, quickness, on-field decision-making, etc. These are skills you basically either have or you don't by the time you are being recruited. Add to that some legitimate technical skills deficiencies and Golz' and his staff are taking knives to gunfights on most nights. In UD's case right now, it really is as simple as recruiting recruiting recruiting in terms of turning the ship around.
And there's a significant part of me that believes the existing personnel are sometimes being unfairly punished in the court of public opinion for their performance. After all, they were offered scholarships or guaranteed roster spots at Dayton so in the sale pitch somewhere they were convinced by others outside their own immediate family that they could compete and be successful at this level. For Golz however, he needs 4 full recruiting classes of players entirely from his own picking before he can be fairly judged. That means whats happened so far is a circumstance where the meter hasnt even started running yet for him.
As for why things slid in the first place, I am not sure. Like I said, Tucker had a string where he had some amazing studs -- Williams, Libertin, Waters alone were three of his best players ever. They were surrounded by Leedom who was a KY prep star, and O'Malley who was a Top-100 recruit. He always had a great central midfielder and you cannot win your league in soccer without a good central midfield. Golz doesnt have that.
But UD was never a program where they had the best player at every position. Maybe the early 2000s were the closest we ever came. The Sweet-16 team was loaded. The Colleen Williams teams were loaded. But for the most part we ha 3-4 real conference stars and then a nice set of complimentary players a half step or full step down that could still hold their own.
That's no longer the case. Its very realistic nobody on the UD team this year makes All-Conference. Pestell has the best shot and probably deserves it, but on a 8th place .500 team in the A10, it's not a shoo-in.
So right now UD doesnt have any All-Conference stars, and doesnt have complimentary players that can fill in the gaps. We're overwhelmed at nearly every position just to keep our heads above water. Whether thats because Tucker didn't land enough studs to cover everyone else's tracks after his retirement, or the lack of baseline skills from the complimentary players I dont know. Probably a little of both.
What's worth noting is the run UD has had in WSOC is unprecedented in the league. UD has made like 22 straight A10 Tourney bids. I dont know what the second best streak is but Im guessing its less than 10. Even in a very down A10 this year, Golz getting this team into the A10 tourney is about as far as any coach could take this squad. Anson Dorrance wouldn't have done much better. What Im getting at is every other program in the league has been at the top and bottom of the A10 about 5 times in the span UD has always been at or near the top. The run we've had was amazing and maybe the law of averages finally caught up with us. For every other program in the league, having seasons like the last two years be considered their "train wreck" scenario is a deal they'd take.
Richmond used to be as good as Dayton in the A10 -- this year they were 2-15-1.
Rhode Island used to be as good as Dayton in the A10 (when Dayton was REALLY good). They just finished 0-17-1 this year.
Tucker had a tremendous way of motivating his players when the chips were down -- even when UD was struggling to remain the team to beat in the A10. But he was also tapping the keys of his own players. And he also knew great players made coaches look smarter. Golz will look instantly smarter when he brings in some difference makers that can change the temperature in the room right away.
Will that be next year? Lets hope because next year will probably be a step back otherwise. UD loses their three most important players in Johns (GK), Pestell (most talented offensive or defensive player), and Kamphaus (UDs fittest player). If you thought we were short on speed and athleticism now, wait a year.
The Flyers were shut out in 8 of 18 games this year -- Im sure that's a record. Goal scoring probably cant get any worse, but how long will it take to get better remains to be seen. Speaking purely from my own soccer biases, it will take a turn for the better when we find a central midfield core that can see the field, float to free spaces and demand the ball, and serve well-weighted diagonals upfield, and when we get strikers that can out-run fullbacks. Until then, it will be tough sledding.
We're going to be okay though. Nobody in the league has a home facility quite like Baujan Field. Nobody else has the tradition and trophy case full of A10 hardware and NCAA bids. Nobody else has the number of All-Americans (except
UMass but that was 25yrs ago). UD still has as much or more to sell than anyone in the A10 and the A10 is not especially strong to begin with. The key will be nabbing a few recruits that had offers from Ohio State, Kentucky, Indiana, Cincinnati, Louisville, etc. These programs poach the Miami Valley every year of the best players and we need to keep some of those studs at home. When you are taking a 7th or 8th player from the Cincinnati area when 5-6 teams have already cannibalized the Cincy prep scene of the top kids to begin with, you're stretching if you think the 15th or 20th best kid even in Cincinnati can be a difference maker. Golz and staff need good relationships with the club schools. Tucker used to coach the Cardinals select club in Cincy. He was tied in really well. He recruited Cleveland really well for about a 5-6 year stretch once. Golz has to see kids and know about them from when they are 10-12 years old and be on them well before others sniff them out. Being in touch with the clubs pays dividends. Im sure he has his contacts.