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  #301  
Old 09-27-2011, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by FSUFlyer View Post
All of this currently hinges on who the SEC takes as 14. Mizzou? WVU? Seem to be the top two rumors. And both are in the most fragile of conferences. I think the ACC is just in sit, wait and ready to poach mode while they let the SEC do their dirty work again. That could be direct by adding WVU or indirectly by adding A&M and Mizzou and forcing the Big XII to then add Big East schools.
Great post. The SEC says that it will not be adding a 14th member for the 2012-2013 season.

That could maybe send WVU to the Big 12, since WVU might not want to wait to see if the SEC will select them, due to the fact that if WVU isn't selected by the SEC, there might not be any available slots anymore in the Big 12 by the time 2013-2014 arrives.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...ap-sec-texasam
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  #302  
Old 09-27-2011, 11:41 PM
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So, everything has settled down......for now, anyway.

Something tells me this will be an uneasy winter for a lot of football schools. Just a few months ago they were safe and secure in their snug BCS conference. And now they must be searching in desperation for anything to grab on to that will keep them in an AQ mode.
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  #303  
Old 09-28-2011, 12:46 AM
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I thought this guy made a good point that I hadn't heard. He says that the Big East can survive this crisis if the Big East can hold onto TCU and maintain AQ status. Staying put in the Big East would be cheaper for the Big East schools due to closer geographic proximity. Otherwise, if the Big East can't hold onto TCU, then programs may start leaving the Big East for the Big 12, ultimately leading to the Big East losing AQ status. And as mentioned in another post, the Texas-based Big 12 schools are objecting to the addition of another Texas-based school to the Big 12, so the Big East may be able to hold onto TCU.

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/eri...ld-add-temple/

"And he repeats a point I have made, and I’m sure he’ll get as much grief for it as I did, that all of the other sports outside men’s basketball and football would pay a price to join the Big 12.

Now, after writing about men’s soccer last week I’ve had a lot of people ask me, "Do you not think the Big 12 is the move that has to be made?"

My answer: If that’s what it takes to maintain BCS conference status, then yes. That’s why I wrote in my column this morning that TCU is a key. If the Horned Frogs leave the Big East, it’s time for U of L to be on the move. The cost of losing BCS automatic qualifier status is far too high, and that trumps about every other consideration.

But if the Big East can hold on to TCU, and U of L thinks it can solidify its position and work to strengthen that league — AND West Virginia stays on board — then I think it would still be a controversial call to stay in the league if invited to the Big 12, and I think that U of L athletic director Tom Jurich would have some public relations to do with his fan base if the school made the decision to stay.

If U of L can maintain automatic-qualifier status in the Big East, it certainly is the better fit for its overall program. I just don’t see how that can happen if you subtract TCU."

Last edited by ud2; 09-28-2011 at 12:53 AM..
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  #304  
Old 09-28-2011, 01:00 AM
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So, it all comes down to TCU?
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  #305  
Old 09-28-2011, 08:54 AM
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Notre Dame

If it is true that the ACC is waiting to try to get Notre Dame, is Notre Dame the final domino? If and when ND decides to go to a conference for football does this make the 16 team conferences real?

If that is true, could that be a part of the next BCS talks? A final warning to Notre Dame, pick someone and that is where you go?
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  #306  
Old 09-28-2011, 09:40 AM
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Notre Dame

Like it or not, agree with it or not,...Notre Dame is the crown jewel of college football. Any conference would love to have ND...and if a conference already had expanded to 16,...they'd add ND as a 17th team.

Having said that, it is an undeniable fact,...a fact,...that ND really wants to remain independent in football. And money is not the reason. ND would take in millions more as a conference member. ND's $15 million TV contract is relatively modest in today's world.

So, ND wants two things re football independence: 1) the schedule flexibility to select a variety of national opponents; 2) the ability to play its annual "conference" legacy games (UM, PU, MSU, USC, Navy and SU). And along with that, a 3rd item...it's essential that ND's other sports are protected.

Now it seems that the only thing that would absolutely force ND into a conference is the 3rd item, i.e., ND must have a top-tier, stable home for its "other" sports. Could a reconstituted Big East provide that? 50-50 chance. As is, plus addition of a few other schools, probably. But, UConn and Rutgers are iffy BE members.

If ND concludes conference membership is inevitable, which conference? Only two possibilities: ACC or Big Ten. Both have pluses and minuses. But, it is a fact that of ND's current six annual "conference" opponents, three are in the Big Ten. So Big Ten membership would permit ND to play USC, Navy and Stanford on a regular basis, along with Mich, MSU and Purdue. ACC membership would not.

How important is that? Only ND knows.
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  #307  
Old 09-28-2011, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
IIRC, the BCS contract expires after the 2014 season, or perhaps its prior to the 2014 season. That's closer than we think. I think there will be a couple of key changes to the next BCS contract (which may or may not include a playoff or +1) I can't imagine the either the SEC or the B10 have been all that happy to see a 3rd qualified team left out of the BCS in favor of an ACC or Big East program that wasn't even ranked, as happened last year when Michigan State sat home and UConn struggled to sell tickets to its BCS bowl game. My guess is that both, along w/ the P10 push to allow any conference a 3rd BCS team should they qualify and a bowl select them. To offset this, my guess is that they add 1 bowl game in a +1 scenerio to have 5 BCS bowl games, plus the +1, then couple that by removing the auto bid from any conference and claim that they're opening it up to more conferences. In reality, both the SEC and B10 should feel comfortable that they'll have at least 1 team BCS worthy every season, and their fan bases both travel well enough that any bowl would be happy to take them.

I believe the Big East has had 3 occasions where their auto bid went to someone with less than ideal credentials. If they lose the automatic bid, given the track record of poor ticket sales, even a top 10 BCS ranked Big East team could be left out in favor of a 12th ranked B10, SEC or Notre Dame team that a bowl knows will travel well and fill up the hotels, bars and restaurants in the area.

The B12 has a chance to survive, assuming it can hold on to Texas & OU. That's 2 huge brand name programs. Programs are not made by what lies at the bottom, but rather by what is situated at the top. The brand name programs that draw fans from every corner of the country is what prop up every conference. The Big East has none currently, and isn't likely to find any willing to come on board. WVU is the closest thing they've got, and they're not exactly on the same level as an Ohio State, Texas, Florida or USC. That is the biggest problem the Big East faces going forward.
Looks like part 1 of my guess has been set in motion:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...bcs-2teamlimit

If part 2 & 3 are correct, or even the part of eliminating the auto bid to any conference, but opening it up more to everyone, the Big East could be in big trouble. I don't think anyone wanted UConn for their BCS bowl game last season. Ticket sales were low, which means are hotels and restaurants were not filled, ratings were low, etc... Something like that could be just as troublesome if the BCS works its way to be even more of a reward for the top drawer D-1 teams for a conference like the current Big East where only WVU travels well.
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  #308  
Old 09-29-2011, 10:58 AM
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http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...p-uconn-future

Big East presidents (and presidents only) are meeting Sunday to discuss the future of the Big East. It makes no mention either way if the presidents of the non football schools will be invited. The president at UConn talks out of both sides of her mouth, early on shes quoted as telling the other presidents to ignore the national rumors about UConn wanting an ACC invite and pushing for it, but at the end, she mentions how she plans to be open and honest in doing what is best for UConn.

Additionally the reports coming out of the B12 are that things are stabilizing and the new commish feels confident in Missouri's commitment to the B12 despite last week's report of their application to the SEC (which I've never seen a real solid account of how true that rumor was). There were rumors swirling that Louisiville has an invite to be the 10th member of the new B12, and potential invites to BYU & UC as members 11 & 12. There were also rumors on Tuesday that Louisville could accept that invite as soon as this weekend (Friday).

Reading thru mrsec.com, they broke down the possibilities of a 13 team SEC schedule. Needless to say, its a mess. I'm not even sure if the NCAA would allow a football championship w/ 13 teams in a conference (I suspect that they would, but I know they wouldn't allow the B10 to do it when they were at 11). The SEC could probably survive a year or two running a 13 team setup, but I have little doubt they'll push to get to at least 14 by the time the next BCS contract is established (following the 2014 season). If they can't pry a team away from the ACC (VTech or FSU), they know WVU would jump in a minute.

So with that said, when the presidents of the Big East meet this weekend, how much faith can you put into the commitments of UConn, Rutgers, WVU & Louisville, all tied to different conferences thru various rumors at this point. All attractive enough in different aspects to believe there is some weight to those rumors. What exactly is in it for either Navy or Army to join? Would TCU sticking to the Mountain West perhaps give them a leg up in the next BCS contract over staying w/ the current Big East? Just think how much the perception of having TCU on the football schedule changes the perception of the other 6 remaining members of the Big East going forward?
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  #309  
Old 09-29-2011, 11:52 AM
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Language matters, Med,...

Originally Posted by Medford View Post
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...p-uconn-future

Big East presidents (and presidents only) are meeting Sunday to discuss the future of the Big East. It makes no mention either way if the presidents of the non football schools will be invited. The president at UConn talks out of both sides of her mouth, early on shes quoted as telling the other presidents to ignore the national rumors about UConn wanting an ACC invite and pushing for it, but at the end, she mentions how she plans to be open and honest in doing what is best for UConn.

Additionally the reports coming out of the B12 are that things are stabilizing and the new commish feels confident in Missouri's commitment to the B12 despite last week's report of their application to the SEC (which I've never seen a real solid account of how true that rumor was). There were rumors swirling that Louisiville has an invite to be the 10th member of the new B12, and potential invites to BYU & UC as members 11 & 12. There were also rumors on Tuesday that Louisville could accept that invite as soon as this weekend (Friday).

Reading thru mrsec.com, they broke down the possibilities of a 13 team SEC schedule. Needless to say, its a mess. I'm not even sure if the NCAA would allow a football championship w/ 13 teams in a conference (I suspect that they would, but I know they wouldn't allow the B10 to do it when they were at 11). The SEC could probably survive a year or two running a 13 team setup, but I have little doubt they'll push to get to at least 14 by the time the next BCS contract is established (following the 2014 season). If they can't pry a team away from the ACC (VTech or FSU), they know WVU would jump in a minute.

So with that said, when the presidents of the Big East meet this weekend, how much faith can you put into the commitments of UConn, Rutgers, WVU & Louisville, all tied to different conferences thru various rumors at this point. All attractive enough in different aspects to believe there is some weight to those rumors. What exactly is in it for either Navy or Army to join? Would TCU sticking to the Mountain West perhaps give them a leg up in the next BCS contract over staying w/ the current Big East? Just think how much the perception of having TCU on the football schedule changes the perception of the other 6 remaining members of the Big East going forward?

Med, UConn's president has never said UC is committed to the Big East. Indeed, she corrected the BE commissioner when he said BE members are committed to the BE. She added that so long as UConn is a BE member it will do all it can to strengten and improve the conference. That's a big difference Med.

CT's governor said UConn belongs in the ACC. Everyone knows that UConn would accept an ACC invitation in a heartbeat, as would Rutgers and any other BE FB school. Other BE FB schools would accept invitations to the SEC or Big Ten. But such invitations may never come. So it's in the best interests of BE FB schools to do all they can to strengthen and improve the conference.

It's in Dayton's best interest to do all it can to strengthen and improve the A10. And in that sense UD is "committed" to the A10. But, would UD accept and invitation to join a conference with the BE BB schools? Probably. Would Tim say, "no, we're committed to the A10". Highly doubtful.

The Big East FB schools are in a real jam...and they know it. Each one will do what is in its best interests. For now it's in everyone's best interest to do all it can to strengthen the conference they're in....the BE.
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Old 09-29-2011, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Med, UConn's president has never said UC is committed to the Big East. Indeed, she corrected the BE commissioner when he said BE members are committed to the BE. She added that so long as UConn is a BE member it will do all it can to strengten and improve the conference. That's a big difference Med.

CT's governor said UConn belongs in the ACC. Everyone knows that UConn would accept an ACC invitation in a heartbeat, as would Rutgers and any other BE FB school. Other BE FB schools would accept invitations to the SEC or Big Ten. But such invitations may never come. So it's in the best interests of BE FB schools to do all they can to strengthen and improve the conference.

It's in Dayton's best interest to do all it can to strengthen and improve the A10. And in that sense UD is "committed" to the A10. But, would UD accept and invitation to join a conference with the BE BB schools? Probably. Would Tim say, "no, we're committed to the A10". Highly doubtful.

The Big East FB schools are in a real jam...and they know it. Each one will do what is in its best interests. For now it's in everyone's best interest to do all it can to strengthen the conference they're in....the BE.
This is why I think you are splitting hairs when you talk about Boston College and their departure. All schools are "committed" to their conference until they get a better offer and things have been "worked out" behind the scenes. The rest of the public chatter is window dressing.
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  #311  
Old 09-29-2011, 12:16 PM
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Thanks for the thoughts, that was kind of what I was getting at. You put it much more logically, but in the end, how committed can you be, if everyone has their eyes elsewhere. Further more, if your the president of Georgetown, Marquette, Depaul or Villinova, how long do you stay committed to the football schoold, when they clearly have little committment to any of the non football playing members.

I think TCU has an interesting decision to make, if they even have a choice. It is likely that Texas, Baylor & Texas Tech would rather keep TCU out of a revised B12. They add little in terms of market presense due to the giant that Texas' program has become since joining the B12. I doubt TCU & Baylor want another Texas program competing in state for the same set of recruits, not to mention a program that is well positioned to win recruiting battles against you for said recruits. Obviously, the ACC, SEC, P12 or B10 would take TCU any time soon, so their best bet is to strengthen a conference and hope they can push it towards BCS status, hence the jump to the Big East. Does the Big East still present a better shot at long term status over the Mountain West? How much does the obvious interest in shifting conferences by UConn, Rutgers & WVU make you reconsider your move. How much does the same interesting in getting out of dodge at the first chance give caution to either Navy or Army in joining as a football only member?

Army & Navy are a bit unique in the college football world. Due to the realities of their recruiting, BCS status isn't a reality for either school. However due to the large amount of respect for our military and the challenges many of their student athletes face, they're a team many across the country root for, they're the few non-BCS status schools that a fan of Ohio State or Alabama or USC would support having their team give up a home game to play. The next round of BSC negotiations are coming quickly. It expires following the 2014 season, which means they're going to want it in place to secure TV deals well befor the 2014 season ends. As evidenced in the SEC commish talking about allowing more than 2 teams from each conference, the ground work is all ready being put in place. Adding Navy & Army doesn't help the Big East maintain equal footing w/ the SEC or B10, and they know it, which is why they're all trying to move as quickly as possible. This is high stress time for the ADs and Presidents at all the schools in the Big East, I'd have trouble believing anything that came out of any of their mouths at this point unless there was binding language on paper backing up the talk.
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  #312  
Old 09-29-2011, 12:50 PM
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I think TCU is respected by the former members of the Southwest Conference. Now that the B12 has an odd number, TCU should be on their A list.

But TCU has to decide which Conference will implode first, the B12 or BE. If I were betting man I would say the BE will implode first, or at the least be reduced to an unappealing consortium.
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  #313  
Old 09-29-2011, 01:06 PM
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A question: Let's assume all stays as it is; the Big East does not lose any more teams (aside from Pitt and Syracuse) and it adds TCU, Navy and Air Force.

Is that football lineup going to maintain BCS AQ status? I know the Big East is betting all its marbles that it does. But will it? If it doesn't, will AQ status pass to the Mountain West?

Any opinions?
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Old 09-29-2011, 01:25 PM
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BC was different...

Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
This is why I think you are splitting hairs when you talk about Boston College and their departure. All schools are "committed" to their conference until they get a better offer and things have been "worked out" behind the scenes. The rest of the public chatter is window dressing.
In 2003, or whenever, BC was secretly negotiating with the ACC for a year while at the same time it was stating its unequivocal commitment to the Big East. That is what so riled the BE schools.

Miami, Va Tech and Syracuse,...all in the mix at the time,...did no such thing. That's why there was no ill will toward those schools and such fury re BC's actions.

Surely, you see that goes beyond "splitting hairs".
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Old 09-29-2011, 01:40 PM
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New Big East FB schools....

Originally Posted by bobber View Post
A question: Let's assume all stays as it is; the Big East does not lose any more teams (aside from Pitt and Syracuse) and it adds TCU, Navy and Air Force.

Is that football lineup going to maintain BCS AQ status? I know the Big East is betting all its marbles that it does. But will it? If it doesn't, will AQ status pass to the Mountain West?

Any opinions?
I don't have a clue what the Big East will do re additional schools. But, it seems to me that there are sensible, attractive options. As is, the BE has a school in TX and one in Fla. Adding large schools like Central Fla and Houston seems to me to have really solid potential, not to mention the benefits of in-state partners, TV markets, institutional compatibilty.

I don't see that with Navy and/or Air Force. Navy would be a credit to any conference and makes sense geographically. AF is far away.

Pitino urged adding Temple. Temple makes much sense on a few fronts. The uncertainty with TU is the staying power of its FB program. Now it's quite good...and everything else fits well. But, if TU swoons is a couple of years and falls back to the level that got the school booted from the BE in the first place....that would be mighty embarrassing. Otherwise Temple is a very good fit.

And don't forget UMass.....a very good fit on all fronts except for the maturity of its FBS FB program. But, UMass has had a very good FCS team consistently. I'll bet that in three years or less UMass FBS FB is good.
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Old 09-29-2011, 02:38 PM
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I don't think the Big East has 3 seasons to wait and see if UMass can become a good FBS team. 2014 is a huge date hanging over the head of these schools. Unless they know for sure their BCS status is protected, they need somebody that is good like yesterday. Off the wall idea that will never happen, but might be the only team they can add that would capture much national attention...Boise St. Tell me all you want about distances, but if you could add them as a football only member along w/ Navy & Air Force, well that might get everyone thru the next BCS contract and give you a chance to figure things out long term.
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Old 09-29-2011, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I don't think the Big East has 3 seasons to wait and see if UMass can become a good FBS team. 2014 is a huge date hanging over the head of these schools. Unless they know for sure their BCS status is protected, they need somebody that is good like yesterday. Off the wall idea that will never happen, but might be the only team they can add that would capture much national attention...Boise St. Tell me all you want about distances, but if you could add them as a football only member along w/ Navy & Air Force, well that might get everyone thru the next BCS contract and give you a chance to figure things out long term.
If the Big East adds Air Force and Boise State they should change the name of the conference to the Really Big East
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  #318  
Old 09-29-2011, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
In 2003, or whenever, BC was secretly negotiating with the ACC for a year while at the same time it was stating its unequivocal commitment to the Big East. That is what so riled the BE schools.

Miami, Va Tech and Syracuse,...all in the mix at the time,...did no such thing. That's why there was no ill will toward those schools and such fury re BC's actions.

Surely, you see that goes beyond "splitting hairs".
I still see the hair splitting. Is there a difference between what BC did and what Pitt and Syracuse did?

I think that most if not all programs are willing to talk to other conferences "secretly" if that means without notification to other conference members. As far as stating "commitment" to a conference publicly, it's the PC thing to do, and it gives most conferences the public perception of stability, which I think most members believe, is in their best interest. I think that most people look past the PR statements, and recognize them as programs and conferences putting on their best face for public consumption.

Last edited by Fudd; 09-29-2011 at 04:09 PM..
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Old 09-29-2011, 04:39 PM
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There is a profound difference...

Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
I still see the hair splitting. Is there a difference between what BC did and what Pitt and Syracuse did?

I think that most if not all programs are willing to talk to other conferences "secretly" if that means without notification to other conference members. As far as stating "commitment" to a conference publicly, it's the PC thing to do, and it gives most conferences the public perception of stability, which I think most members believe, is in their best interest.
As I understand the Pitt, Syracuse situation...it evolved practically overnight...surprising both Pitt and SU. The ACC offered invitations to both schools....and after 24-48 hours of consideration both accepted the offers.

In 2003 the Big East office got wind of the fact that the ACC wanted to add BC, Syracuse and Miami. I do not recall how the BE learned of the matter. But, then BE commissioner, Mike Tranghese, became very upset when he learned of the efforts the ACC had made to keep its intentions secret.

Va Tech, correctly concluded that the BE would be severely weakened by the loss of the three schools, which would be harmful to the remaining members...incl, of course, Va Tech. Va Tech immediately sought the help of Virginia's governor....pleading its case for intervention. It was successful; the Va governor instructed the U. of Virginia to make sure that any ACC plan for expansion at the expence ofthe BE included Va Tech.

Va Tech's initiative worked....the ACC added Miami and Va Tech. Meanwhile, Syracuse made clear that it was not interested in the ACC. So the ACC stopped with the addition of two schools....and the Big East regrouped and began planning a recovery strategy. The very first thing Mike Tranghese did was contact the commissioner of C-USA, explaining that the most likely candidates for BE expansion were C-USA members...and that the BE would keep C-USA informed of any/all contacts with C-USA schools.

Now, neither the public or the media were present at Big East meetings that took place over the following weeks and months....meetings that involved all remaining BE members, incl two schools that were originally targeted by the ACC, BC and Syracuse.

But this is known: the remaining BE schools made certain commitments and representations to the conference..while the BE planned its recovery strategy. Unknown to the BE schools at the time was that throughout that period Boston College and the ACC were in regular contact planning for addition of BC.

What so upset the BE schools was BC's duplicity over an extended period of time. BC's secret actions with the ACC were in direct contradiction to BC's statements and behavior in connection with the BE's planning and strategizing.

It was that issue and that issue alone that poisons the relationship tp this day between BC and current BE member schools. The BE had no beef whatsoever with Miami or Va Tech....nor have I read a complaint re SU or UP leaving the BE.

The complaint that BE schools leveled at BC was not about BC joining the ACC...but about BC's deceptive behavior over an extended period of time.

Fudd, I'm not the one that was "mad" at BC. It was the other BE schools that were so upset. Only they fully understand the background.
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Old 09-29-2011, 05:06 PM
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http://www.footballrumormill.com/201...o-join-big-12/

Don't know what to make of this, but it came from a story of bearcatliar.com. I can't read anything at the link to bearcatliar (I assume its some sort of premium UC message board)

For those that don't want to click... TCU, BYU, Louisville, UC & WVU to the new B12 to form a 14 team conference.

If true, what does the SEC do about a 14th school. Does the ACC add UConn & Rutgers? Does the B10 stay at 12, what about Notre Dame. Would the B10 look at adding Notre Dame & Rutgers? What happens to UConn then. Every rumor I've seen lately, no where is South Florida mentioned. Can't imagine they'd raise much interest in either the SEC or ACC.
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Old 09-29-2011, 07:58 PM
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If there is any truth to this it would be the end of a lot of things as we know them. I imagine the Big 12 really wants to be the Big 12 again, for a lot of good reasons. And it couldn't find a much better time than now to make the offers.

Anyone in the Big East must be gulping down tums and aspirins, because the future in that part of the world is very uncertain. Trade that for a comfortable spot in a fairly solid BCS conference? "Why, yes, thanks. We'd love to join."

And the Big 12 would love to expand its footprint east with Louisville, Cincy and West Virginia and west with BYU. I could see the eastern schools being receptive, but I am not sure BYU can be had easily. Imagine if they were though......that would make two schools in the same conference with their own networks. Yeeeooww.
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Old 09-29-2011, 10:33 PM
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Posted without comment.

http://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2011...st-mass-exodus
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:53 AM
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Love how the USF & Louisville posters brought up the anti-trust aspects of the BCS. Funny how when you're potentially on the outside looking in that stuff like that suddenly comes into focus.
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  #324  
Old 09-30-2011, 07:53 AM
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A new twist....

We all know that conferences have "exit" fees that as a deterent to a school leaving the conference. The ACC recently riaised its exit fee to $20 million...high; but not insurmountable. It's been speculated that if the SEC went after FSU, the SEC would cover part or all of FCU's $20 million.

Well, suppose the BE FB conference collapses, as seems possible, even likely. Maybe the runors of the Big 12 taking 3 or 4 BE schools are true. Further suppose that schools like Rutgers and UConn are on the ACC's list for possible expansion to 16 in maybe a year or two....with the ACC holding all the cards re who and when.

What's to prevent RU or UC from offering to pay the ACC an "entrance" fee...of even $20 million,...if the ACC invites them now? Perhaps RU and UC could split the fee if added as a pair.

This is a high stakes, very big money deal with very, very long-lasting implications. While a $20 million or more entrance fee is a lot of money, it's just about one year of TV money for ACC members. Indeed, RU and/or UConn could offer to forego a year or two of their TV money as a means of paying the entrance fee.

Now that would not appeal to the ACC unless RU and/or UC were being considered anyway. If they were, the fee would be for getting an invitation right now.....as opposed to a long, drawn-out uncertain ACC time-table.

Sounds possible to me.
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Old 09-30-2011, 08:46 AM
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A couple more things to add, across the bottom line on ESPN last night, the B12 said they met yesterday to discuss expansion, with nothing final (though I'll assume a clear path of intent was laid forth) with plans to meet again next week. The AD at Tennessee was quoted as saying the SEC plans to expand beyond 13 quickly.

There is also this:

http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs....56338/32382045

An awful lot of smoke, all pointing towards the football side of the Big East falling apart.
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Old 09-30-2011, 09:20 AM
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A driving factor?

It's quite possible,....reasonable,...that all the majors would prefer to digest their recent additions before growing again to 14 or 16 teams as the case may be. It seems as if only the PAC 12 may have this option...and in my opinion, with the Big 12 stabilizing, the PAC 12 may stay at 12 for a long time, whether it wants to or not.

But, the ACC and SEC...even the Big Ten,...have roughly similar geographic footprints....at least close,...and the ACC and Big Ten are very fussy about academics. So, even if these three would prefer to "rest" for a while, I think they know that there is a risk in so doing. In one, two, three years the only schools they are seriously considering may have been snapped up by another conference. Then what?

The ACC might like to add RU and UC in a few years. But would anyone be astonished if the Big Ten preempted ACC action and expanded east first by going after RU and/or UC, or both? I think the ACC and Big Ten may covet the same schools.....the SEC has a different criteria.

Whatever, the ACC's action re SU and UP surprised almost everyone. I will not be surprised if there is another major surprise. And if the Big Ten really is interested in Missouri, it might act before the Big 12 becomes stable. Indeed, the governor of Missouri has stated clearly that UM would jump at a chance to join the Big Ten.

Maybe the Big Ten really is happy at 12 forever. Maybe the ACC at 14. But, it's unlikely that the SEC will stay at 13. I would be tickled if the SEC went after an ACC school.
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Old 09-30-2011, 10:00 AM
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Does the number of slices (and size of those slices) of pie come into the decision? Does the size of the TV contract increase proportianately with the number of schools added? Are the current members better off splitting the pie 12 ways as opposed to 14 ways?
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Old 09-30-2011, 10:15 AM
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IMHOP-TCU is the current lynchpin. Do they stay in Big East or go to Big 12. My money says the Big East is no longer what they signed up for and they go to Big 12. I expect Big 12 to be very aggressive and want to get back to 12. After TCU comes Mizzou. Does Mizzou stay Big 12 or get invite to SEC. SEC takes either Mizzou or WVU. Let's say WVU. Big 12 takes UC,UL and with TCU gets back to 12. Both Big 10 and ACC sit and watch ND. If ND picks a conference - Big 10 or ACC - then that conference picks another - Big 10 maybe Mizzou - ACC maybe UConn. Otherwise, Big 10 and ACC stay where they are. I think ND stays independent. Out in the cold - UConn, Rutgers, and South Florida. Big East football implodes. Just one man's humble opinion.
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Old 09-30-2011, 10:19 AM
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That's what it's all about `80.

Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does the number of slices (and size of those slices) of pie come into the decision? Does the size of the TV contract increase proportianately with the number of schools added? Are the current members better off splitting the pie 12 ways as opposed to 14 ways?
Adding teams must result in a significantly bigger slice for the current schools. It better or the Commissioner championing expansion will get lynched!

That's why there is so much discussion re adding new, large TV markets. That's what the ESPNs are willing to pay for. That is the primary reason that the Big Ten has talked of expanding east. Why in the world would the Big Ten want to add schools on the east coast other than greater TV revenue? By adding UP and SU the ACC geographic footprint expands into larger TV markets. Adding Rutgers or UConn or both would add the NYC market for either the ACC or Big Ten.

The conferences have the financials figured out in advance through contacts with the networks. They know how big the slices will be.
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Old 09-30-2011, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
We all know that conferences have "exit" fees that as a deterent to a school leaving the conference. The ACC recently riaised its exit fee to $20 million...high; but not insurmountable. It's been speculated that if the SEC went after FSU, the SEC would cover part or all of FCU's $20 million.

Well, suppose the BE FB conference collapses, as seems possible, even likely. Maybe the runors of the Big 12 taking 3 or 4 BE schools are true. Further suppose that schools like Rutgers and UConn are on the ACC's list for possible expansion to 16 in maybe a year or two....with the ACC holding all the cards re who and when.

What's to prevent RU or UC from offering to pay the ACC an "entrance" fee...of even $20 million,...if the ACC invites them now? Perhaps RU and UC could split the fee if added as a pair.

This is a high stakes, very big money deal with very, very long-lasting implications. While a $20 million or more entrance fee is a lot of money, it's just about one year of TV money for ACC members. Indeed, RU and/or UConn could offer to forego a year or two of their TV money as a means of paying the entrance fee.

Now that would not appeal to the ACC unless RU and/or UC were being considered anyway. If they were, the fee would be for getting an invitation right now.....as opposed to a long, drawn-out uncertain ACC time-table.

Sounds possible to me.
Sounds HIGHLY improbable to me. Even if UConn and Rutgers both paid $20M UPFRONT, that's less than $3M/school. That's NOTHING in the grand scheme of things. The ACC is MUCH better of waiting and seeing if the cards fall right and it can add Notre Dame. That would be worth MUCH more than $3M/school. Even if ND were to go to a different conference, that $3M gamble is well worth it, since Rutgers and UConn will likely still be there for the ACC.

Sounds like a great deal for those two schools. Sounds like a raw deal for the ACC and its members.
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Old 09-30-2011, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Great post. The SEC says that it will not be adding a 14th member for the 2012-2013 season.
I think the SEC is full of crap. Having 13 schools split into 2 divisions is a NIGHTMARE, even if it's only for one season. It's just posturing. They would LOVE to have a 14th school by next year but it does seem more and more doubtful they will have one.

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I thought this guy made a good point that I hadn't heard. He says that the Big East can survive this crisis if the Big East can hold onto TCU and maintain AQ status. Staying put in the Big East would be cheaper for the Big East schools due to closer geographic proximity.
I think they'd have a larger tv contract in the Big XII that would offset any additional travel costs. And there's no guarantee TCU keeps the Big East as an AQ conference. TCU, Utah and BYU couldn't make the MWC an AQ conference.

Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
Love how the USF & Louisville posters brought up the anti-trust aspects of the BCS. Funny how when you're potentially on the outside looking in that stuff like that suddenly comes into focus.
Especially since USF is doing EVERYTHING they can to keep UCF out of the Big East, even if it may lead to the death of the Big East.

Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I would be tickled if the SEC went after an ACC school.
Why? Many people on message boards want Maryland, one of the VA schools or one of the NC schools from the ACC. Highly doubtful any of those schools actually leave, even if the SEC shows heavy interest, which we can assume they have for VT, UNC, etc. Only Clemson or FSU would quite possibly leave, and even that's no guarantee. But the SEC appears to be afraid to add any legitimate football schools.
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  #332  
Old 09-30-2011, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Adding teams must result in a significantly bigger slice for the current schools. It better or the Commissioner championing expansion will get lynched!

That's why there is so much discussion re adding new, large TV markets. That's what the ESPNs are willing to pay for. That is the primary reason that the Big Ten has talked of expanding east. Why in the world would the Big Ten want to add schools on the east coast other than greater TV revenue? By adding UP and SU the ACC geographic footprint expands into larger TV markets. Adding Rutgers or UConn or both would add the NYC market for either the ACC or Big Ten.

The conferences have the financials figured out in advance through contacts with the networks. They know how big the slices will be.
I don't think that RU and/or UConn bring enough to the table for the Big XII to consider bringing them in. Big Ten might make a preemptive move on Mizzou (or I hope they do) and then maybe wait for ND. If ND is stuck playing Olympic sports in the Big East, they may reconsider their options.
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Old 09-30-2011, 04:16 PM
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SEC is at an unsustainable 13 schools and only a matter of timing and the right school before they offer a 14th. You don't want to be tardy in expressing a desire to be that 14th member. You want to be at the front of the line. Big East football is already on soft ground with no comfort to remaining BE football schools or those asked to join. Who know what the BE will be in five years.

But the SEC and ACC are rock solid.

If you want in those conferences you aren't going to sit on your hands.
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  #334  
Old 09-30-2011, 06:08 PM
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Big East football is done! Just a matter of time. What the basketball schools do is any body's guess. South Florida is the one that will left SOL.
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:51 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
What's to prevent RU or UC from offering to pay the ACC an "entrance" fee...of even $20 million,...if the ACC invites them now? Perhaps RU and UC could split the fee if added as a pair.
If I was a taxpayer in Connecticut or New Jersey, I would demand the legislature cut school funding by that amount. Ditto for any school that leaves a conference and pays an exit fee. If state institutions are going to play this conference hopping game, they need to do it wholly on their own, without taxpayer assistance. Hope you're listening Cincy...

Last edited by Viperstick; 10-01-2011 at 01:03 AM..
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Old 10-01-2011, 11:35 AM
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Link posted without comment, except, I bet Villanova is in a bad mood just now.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports...g-east-invite/
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:25 PM
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Demand?

Get real. The BE schools undertand that UC and/or RU will accept ACC or Bif Ten invites in a heartbeat....that WVU would leap into the arms of the SEC....and that UL and/or UC would probably grab a Big 12 invite without hesitation.

The Big East is very, very weak at the moment and schools will understandably accept an offer from one of the power conferences.

As for Temple....they will be wise to stick with the MAC. If they go back to the BE and the BE collapses completely in 6 mo or a year,...then what?
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Get real. The BE schools undertand that UC and/or RU will accept ACC or Bif Ten invites in a heartbeat....that WVU would leap into the arms of the SEC....and that UL and/or UC would probably grab a Big 12 invite without hesitation.
That is the same type of understanding that BC deserved when it went to the ACC.
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
That is the same type of understanding that BC deserved when it went to the ACC.
Fudd, frecryinoutloud,..why can't you understand the difference?

The Big East schools will not commit to the conference.....in 2003 BC firmly committed to the Big East at the very time it was secretly negotiating for membership in the ACC.
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
Link posted without comment, except, I bet Villanova is in a bad mood just now.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports...g-east-invite/
Choose wisely Temple. If the football thing doesn't work out, you might find yourself back in the MAC for all sports...
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:45 PM
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Or worse...

Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
Choose wisely Temple. If the football thing doesn't work out, you might find yourself back in the MAC for all sports...
...if the BE FB thing "doesn't work out" TU might very well find that it is not welcome back in the MAC.
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Old 10-01-2011, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Fudd, frecryinoutloud,..why can't you understand the difference?

The Big East schools will not commit to the conference.....in 2003 BC firmly committed to the Big East at the very time it was secretly negotiating for membership in the ACC.
My point is that all schools are "commited" to their conference until a better offer, giving them more long term exposure, improved recruiting and more money comes along.

I am convinced that most of the schools who are afraid of the instability in their conference are having as many "behind the scenes" talks with other conferences as possible to look out for their own interests. Nobody saw the Pitt and Syracuse thing coming. It could have been in the works for years for all we know. I doubt that it was a spur of the moment decision for them or the ACC. When did they call UConn and give them the heads up that they were about to get screwed?

The only reason that the top conferences are stable is that they are already at the top of the food chain with diminishing returns if they move to another top conference.
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:23 AM
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Posted without comment.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...lity-expansion
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:26 AM
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Posted without comment.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...xpand-13-teams
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Old 10-02-2011, 06:37 PM
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Posted without comment.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...eastpresidents
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Old 10-02-2011, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
If I was a taxpayer in Connecticut or New Jersey, I would demand the legislature cut school funding by that amount. Ditto for any school that leaves a conference and pays an exit fee. If state institutions are going to play this conference hopping game, they need to do it wholly on their own, without taxpayer assistance. Hope you're listening Cincy...
What? Pay $5M now to make more later. So the school would be investing wisely, and you propose to cut funding. Terrible logic.
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Old 10-02-2011, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by FSUFlyer View Post
What? Pay $5M now to make more later. So the school would be investing wisely, and you propose to cut funding. Terrible logic.
No, I'm proposing these schools do it on their own, without dipping into the public treasury for assistance. If the school is going to guarantee taxpayers an annual rebate check from an ongoing revenue stream, then this is a valid investment. Otherwise, it's standard government fraud, waste, and abuse.
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:51 PM
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Mizzou

Today the U. of Missouri curators voted unanimously to give the president the authority to explore exiting the Big 12....thereby announcing that UM is putting itself on the market, so to speak.

Considering that the Big 12 seemed to be rapidly stabilizing, this is mildly surprising to me. The angle may be as follows: This could be a direct message to the SEC (or even the Big Ten) that UM wants out, thereby taking the pressure off the SEC...the pressure being that it has been reported that the SEC presidents are not comfortable acting in a way that causes another conference to collapse.

While the Big 12 appears to have stabilized, loss of UM would be a blow forcing the Big 12 to come up with at least two new teams. The SEC can't be blamed for that if UM initiates the process. Just an opinion.
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Old 10-04-2011, 09:32 PM
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Mizzou is gone. The Big12 er Big8 has been dead for some time.
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Old 10-04-2011, 09:41 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Today the U. of Missouri curators voted unanimously to give the president the authority to explore exiting the Big 12....thereby announcing that UM is putting itself on the market, so to speak.

Considering that the Big 12 seemed to be rapidly stabilizing, this is mildly surprising to me. The angle may be as follows: This could be a direct message to the SEC (or even the Big Ten) that UM wants out, thereby taking the pressure off the SEC...the pressure being that it has been reported that the SEC presidents are not comfortable acting in a way that causes another conference to collapse.

While the Big 12 appears to have stabilized, loss of UM would be a blow forcing the Big 12 to come up with at least two new teams. The SEC can't be blamed for that if UM initiates the process. Just an opinion.
I would have to agree with your interpretation. This is an open invitation to all takers from Mizzou. Here we are, come and get us. And if this takes the pressure off the SEC presidents, then so be it. If Mizzou goes to the SEC then someone will have to take its place. And I imagine the Big 12 would like to end up with around 12 teams.

The Big 12 is alive. Its another "Big" football conference that's on life support.

Last edited by bobber; 10-04-2011 at 10:47 PM..
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:49 AM
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I'm hearing that the top candidates for the Big XII are (roughly in this order): BYU, TCU, Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati.

Notre Dame could be a wild card here.
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  #352  
Old 10-05-2011, 08:50 AM
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Notre Dame would be a big surprise to me for the B12. The B10 obviously makes sense, I can see why they'd consider the ACC as they like their eastern connections. The Pac-10 is kind of similar to the ACC for Notre Dame, but would make much less sense as I assume they draw more students from the east coast than the west coast (I mean why go to a cold mid-western city when you can go to Cal, UCLA or Stanford in a climate similar to what you grew up in).

I'm assuming Missouri knows they have a spot in the SEC (or I suppose the B10, but I think the odds are pretty small at this point), otherwise why declare that you're looking around. I look for them to apply for membership to the SEC sometime early next week, with the SEC meeting and agreeing to accept their membership (under similar conditions as the aTm deal) late next week. If that is true, here is where it finally gets interesting for UD.

Big 12 would have 8 teams, the Big East would have 7 going forward. 8 is workable, though far from ideal, 7 doesn't work at all. Neither appear to have great stability, but the B12 has both Texas and OU which gives them a huge leg up in the football side of things, where the TV revenues are going to be generated. If I'm Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas & Kansas State, and I know that Texas & OU have been linked to the ACC, P-12, ACC and or SEC at different times, multiple times over the last 2 years, I want more stability going forward. I'd assume at some point they're going to bolt, but if they can keep them around for 6 years, and add a few more teams that can make them a stable conference following their departure you can ensure your long term stability at the big boy table. If I'm Louisville, UC, TCU, & WVU I'm thinking joining to the remaining B12 members offers me better long term stability due to the inclusion of Texas & OU (for however long) over UConn, Rutgers, USF and whatever other schools you can add to get to 8 or more schools and keep alive your BCS dreams.

On the Big East expansion side, here's what interest me (well until the whole thing falls apart and UD potentially joins the basketball side of things) If your the administration at East Carolina, Central Florida, Houston or anywhere else how hard would you have to consider the conference exit fees, as well as the bad relations you'd form w/ your current CUSA conference mates if you left to join what appears to be a very unstable Big East? Temple kind of makes sense as they're not a full member of the MAC, plus I think their Philly presence puts them in the ACC conversation (though it would like require the B10 make a move east and picking up either Rutgers and/or UConn), plus I think they could fall back to CUSA long term if need be. The MAC deal never felt permanent, and I think there would be less hard feelings if they left for the Big East. I've also seen a lot of Navy mentioned. They're independent, so they don't have any conference members they owe allegiance to, however, I assume their schedule over the next couple of seasons is more or less complete. They'd have to terminate a lot of contracts or push them into the future to take on a full 8+ game conference schedule. At what point is there a drop-dead date to cancel such contracts? How long would they need to wait to be sure that no one else leaves the Big East for the B12? The Big East needs at least 1 more team for next season to retain their BCS status unless they force Syracuse & Pitt to the 27 month waiting period. In the meantime, the future BCS contract will be put into work sometime soon. There is a time crunch facing them from several directions. The last thing any member of the Big East wants is to find their BCS status ripped away just as negotiations for the future makeup of the BCS alliance are taking shape.
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  #353  
Old 10-05-2011, 08:58 AM
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another possibility, this could be postering to force consideration of 3rd tier rights w/n conference and the sharing of those revenues (ie the Long Horn Network) Would Texas want to give those up to keep Missouri around? They wouldn't budge for either Nebraska or aTm, don't see them budging for Missouri, but it could force them to reconsider, which would potentially strengthen the B12 for a much longer period.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:25 AM
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BE vs B 12

Med, a major issue that favors the Big 12 compared to the BE is geography. One can think of several good candidates within the Big 12 footprint that would fit well in the Big 12 with or without UT and OU in the future.

Football is not a big deal in the northeast....with the result that the BE doesn't have good candidates for expansion. Air Force? Holy mackerel! Navy? Why would Navy want to be in a FB conference...they're doing great as an independent.

The UConn president mentioned a day or so ago how important geography is to her...a topic that is seldom mentioned, she said.

I'm looking for surprises. The ACC deal with UP and SU took everyone by surprise,..UP and SU, included. The ACC would lock up the east coast with Rutgers and UConn; but seems in no hurry to do so. A surprising SEC move on an ACC team would change that in a hurry.

For a real surprise....I've got my eye on the very quiet Big Ten. Adding teams is a very long term deal. The mid-west is in decline with no end in sight. Indeed, a reason UD has given for its efforts to attract students from outside the region is the grim demographic projection for the mid-west. If the Big Ten is thinking along the same lines, expansion to the densely populated east coast might look very atrractive. Rutgers and UConn together bring in the Boston-NYC corridor incl Mass, CT, NY, NJ and eastern PA.

It's hard to believe that a revised Big Ten TV contract to account for adding UC and RU would not bring extra money to the current Big Ten schools. And, the Big Ten is so fussy re academics, there just aren't that many good choices that meet Big Ten criteria.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:57 AM
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http://espn.go.com/college-sports/st...leaving-big-12

The article is nothing more than you've seen elsewhere regarding Missouri's actions yesterday, but there is an interesting blurb near the bottom. "A big east coach texted espn.com feared that the Big East was done". I'm surprised that the texting coach wasn't named, perhaps its an assistant coach that few would have heard about and the stupidity of texting that to a media outlet could cause him to lose his job. Or perhaps its a head coach with close ties to someone in Bristol that wants to remain unnamed in exchange for sharing more info.

UAC, you want a surprise, how about missouri & Rutgers to the B10 taking the B10 to 14 and giving them time to wait out Notre Dame & Texas to join in a couple of seasons? I agree, the B10 has been far to quite, I highly doubt they're mearly a wall flower waiting to see how openly wants to join the ranks. Missouri is a fellow AAU school, and would open up the St Louis & KC markets on either side of Missouri to the B10 network, Its decent athletically, solid academically and stretches the footprint into a pretty passionate area of fans. Rutgers gives them more access into the NYC market, it gives Penn State the east coast presence they've lond desired in the B10. It also gives Notre Dame an east coast presence, which I think is a large consideration for them, and why you see them linked to the ACC in various reports. Its also an AAU school.

For those that are wondering why AAU status matters so much, the B10 (Plus original B10 member Chicago) are all AAU schools (though Nebraska did lose their AAU status, but is in the works to gain it back). The collection of B10 schools have banded together on the research side to share all research dollars on various projects and government grants. The money generated thru this research dwarfs what they make in athletics by 3-4x.

I think this is why Notre Dame is seen as such a plum, of the large school contigent, they are by far the most connected. The boon in research dollars generated by adding Notre Dame would be a big, big plus.

If the ACC is indeed vulnerable to the SEC & B10, I wonder what the odds of the B10 adding Notre Dame, Rutgers, Missouri & Marlyand, taking them to 16

The SEC adding aTm, Florida State, WVU & V Tech, taking them to 16

The ACC adding UConn, Pitt & Syracuse (plus the losses) taking them back to 12.

Leaving the remaining schools & the P10 to figure things out?

I do find it interesting that the Big East HAS, I repeat, HAS to add 1 football school by next year (assuming Pitt & Syracuse are indeed gone at season's end) in order to maintain BCS status w/ 8 teams. That gives them 10 months to figure something out, yet all we've seen are rumors of different teams joining the Big East, and there has been little said that the Big East is definently going to enforce the 27 month waiting period. Its getting late awfully early.
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Old 10-05-2011, 12:04 PM
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ND and research...

Med, no doubt ND is a plum that any conference would love to have. But, ND is not a big research school and is not an AAU member. ND does not have a medical school...medical schools dominate research spending.

In fact, I'll go out on a limb a bit here..but I don't think ND has a research contract base as large as Dayton.

Rutgers is an AAU member..UConn is not....both schools are similar when it comes to academics and research....both rank highly in the annual U.S. News stats, above several Big Ten schools.

There is politics involved with AAU membership, of course. I see no reason why UConn would not qualify if it pursued membership...which I'll bet its new president does.

Understandably, both Rutgers and UConn have very large alumni bases in the east...and so do Big Ten schools. In my immediate neighborhood in CT there is an Indiana grad, a Wisconsin grad,..and I'm a Northwestern grad.
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Old 10-05-2011, 03:11 PM
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Missouri official...

...reports that UM "hopes" to join the SEC...but strongly preferred the Big Ten...but the Big Ten "has no interest" in Missouri, according to the official.

To me, that's looks better for Rutgers or UConn or both, i.e., perhaps the Big Ten feels that UM is a fine mid-west school but we really want to expand geographically....meaning "east". That's where all the TV sets are.
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Old 10-05-2011, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
...reports that UM "hopes" to join the SEC...but strongly preferred the Big Ten...but the Big Ten "has no interest" in Missouri, according to the official.

To me, that's looks better for Rutgers or UConn or both, i.e., perhaps the Big Ten feels that UM is a fine mid-west school but we really want to expand geographically....meaning "east". That's where all the TV sets are.
That's where the BTN wants to be,
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Old 10-05-2011, 06:41 PM
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Along the east coast lines, don't forget Maryland (and the school it is so closely associated with, and that the B10 presidents would likely see as a real prize...Johns Hopkins...as a non-sports member)?
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:35 PM
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A non-sports member....

Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Along the east coast lines, don't forget Maryland (and the school it is so closely associated with, and that the B10 presidents would likely see as a real prize...Johns Hopkins...as a non-sports member)?

...of an athletics conference?
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:57 PM
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I really don't see the Big Ten expanding beyond 12 teams unless they can land the crown jewel, Notre Dame. All of the other names don't really do anything to enhance the conference and they take money from the pot.
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by anthonycharles View Post
I really don't see the Big Ten expanding beyond 12 teams unless they can land the crown jewel, Notre Dame. All of the other names don't really do anything to enhance the conference and they take money from the pot.

With all due respect AC, how do you know that adding Rutgers and UConn would "take money from the pot"? The Big Ten's TV deal(s) would be renegotiated to take into accout the fact that the Big Ten then would have teams in an area where 20-30 million new TV viewers live.

I know nothing about such deals...but it seems at least possible that the increase in TV revenue would result in more money for each current Big Ten school. As far as "enhancing the conference". is concerened....from an academic/research perspective both Rutgers and UConn would add considerably more than ND would.

The Big Ten is comprised of 12 of the most hiighly respected public academic/research institutions in the country. Both Rutgers and UConn fit that description.

On another matter....there are schools in the ACC that are basketball schools, schools that are football schools, and schools that are both. But, the ACC's strongest sport is basketball....by far.

Syracuse and Pitt do not add strength in football; they do in basketball. I have been reading that from Florida State's perspective, adding SU and UP was the straw that broke the camel's back, i.e., the move adds to BB, nothing for FB. And, most definitely, FSU is a football school. All of which makes the lure of the SEC attractive to FSU. It will be interesting if the SEC's 14th team is FSU.
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05 View Post
I'm hearing that the top candidates for the Big XII are (roughly in this order): BYU, TCU, Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati.

Notre Dame could be a wild card here.
I agree with the first 5 schools. Doubt TCU would be near the top considering the strong Texas presence the conference already has, though. And I don't think Notre Dame is a wild card at all. If they won't join the Big Ten or ACC there's just no way they'd join the Big XII with schools like Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Louisville.
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Old 10-05-2011, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
...reports that UM "hopes" to join the SEC...but strongly preferred the Big Ten...but the Big Ten "has no interest" in Missouri, according to the official.

To me, that's looks better for Rutgers or UConn or both, i.e., perhaps the Big Ten feels that UM is a fine mid-west school but we really want to expand geographically....meaning "east". That's where all the TV sets are.
I know you're a UConn supporter and really want to see the school land on its feet here, but I'm not sure you're being realistic. If the Big Ten is going to sacrifice its Midwestern identity in the process of going to 14 schools, I'm not sure it's going to be for UConn and/or Rutgers. If the Big Ten is trying to make contact with the East Coast, I'm thinking Maryland may be a better target.

Regardless, I truly feel that if the Big Ten has plans to someday go to 14 or 16, Mizzou would be in the mix as one of the conference's top choices. Not snagging MU right now may be a mistake.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:20 PM
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Don't know what the Big Ten is thinking....

Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05 View Post
I know you're a UConn supporter and really want to see the school land on its feet here, but I'm not sure you're being realistic. If the Big Ten is going to sacrifice its Midwestern identity in the process of going to 14 schools, I'm not sure it's going to be for UConn and/or Rutgers. If the Big Ten is trying to make contact with the East Coast, I'm thinking Maryland may be a better target.

Regardless, I truly feel that if the Big Ten has plans to someday go to 14 or 16, Mizzou would be in the mix as one of the conference's top choices. Not snagging MU right now may be a mistake.

...about future expansion, if anything. But, it's not clear to me why the DC area would be more attractive than the NYC area.

It's probably reasonable to suppose at least these things:

1. The Big Ten doesn't want to take a back seat to any other conference...as regards either national prominence; on-the-field performance; or revenue.

2. Because of 1. above, even though the Big Ten may be perfectly happy with 12 schools, if the SEC and/or ACC go to 16 eventually, the Big Ten may be forced to do something that it otherwise might not....so as not to be over-shadowed.

Adding schools that are already within the footprint of the conference doesn't create much value. In that regard, adding ND would do less for the Big Ten than for either the ACC or SEC. So, it seems as if the greatest impact from Big Ten expansion will be to grow the conference footprint into contiguous states....or nearly so, e.g., east.

And, of course, you are correct...having lived my entire adult life in CT 20 miles from UConn, I would like to see the school "land on its feet", as you put it. But, it's very hard to be optimistic that will happen without unexpected outside help, e.g., an SEC assault on one or more ACC schools placing the ACC on the defensive for the first time..."needing" the likes of UC or Rutgers....a very long shot, to be sure.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by FSUFlyer View Post
I agree with the first 5 schools. Doubt TCU would be near the top considering the strong Texas presence the conference already has, though. And I don't think Notre Dame is a wild card at all. If they won't join the Big Ten or ACC there's just no way they'd join the Big XII with schools like Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Louisville.
Yeah you're right about ND. I've just been hearing a lot about the strong relationship they've developed with Texas in the past year or so. Maybe that will come into play somewhere else down the line in some other conference realignment scenario.

As for TCU, I think that if the Big XII isn't looking to get too crazy with its expansion, they are the safe choice.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:23 PM
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The Big Ten Network will be around for many years, and it is a huge money maker. Populous states like New Jersey and Connecticut are places of interest for cable networks like the BTN because they get paid for every TV in the coverage area (on top of the advertising dollars they get for selling commercial time in their broadcasts).

That's why I don't think you can discount Rutgers and UConn as potential Big Ten targets. With cable TV in the picture, the two schools are more attractive than you might think, and would likely bring more to the Big Ten table than they'd take away.

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Old 10-05-2011, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
...about future expansion, if anything. But, it's not clear to me why the DC area would be more attractive than the NYC area.

It's probably reasonable to suppose at least these things:

1. The Big Ten doesn't want to take a back seat to any other conference...as regards either national prominence; on-the-field performance; or revenue.

2. Because of 1. above, even though the Big Ten may be perfectly happy with 12 schools, if the SEC and/or ACC go to 16 eventually, the Big Ten may be forced to do something that it otherwise might not....so as not to be over-shadowed.

Adding schools that are already within the footprint of the conference doesn't create much value. In that regard, adding ND would do less for the Big Ten than for either the ACC or SEC. So, it seems as if the greatest impact from Big Ten expansion will be to grow the conference footprint into contiguous states....or nearly so, e.g., east.

And, of course, you are correct...having lived my entire adult life in CT 20 miles from UConn, I would like to see the school "land on its feet", as you put it. But, it's very hard to be optimistic that will happen without unexpected outside help, e.g., an SEC assault on one or more ACC schools placing the ACC on the defensive for the first time..."needing" the likes of UC or Rutgers....a very long shot, to be sure.
UConn seems like it would be a great fit for the ACC, and Florida State seems like it would be a better fit now in the SEC. Maybe this will end up happening?

In regards to your question about DC vs. NYC, I don't think about that as much because I don't get the impression that either city cares much about college football. Maybe if Rutgers got really good at some point NYC might really get behind them, but the former is an unlikelihood and the latter is an uncertainty. And maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't see UConn ever having any significant pull in NYC.

Maryland seems like a better fit for the Big Ten in my opinion, but even it doesn't excite me much.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:42 PM
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Bobber's point...

Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05 View Post
UConn seems like it would be a great fit for the ACC, and Florida State seems like it would be a better fit now in the SEC. Maybe this will end up happening?

In regards to your question about DC vs. NYC, I don't think about that as much because I don't get the impression that either city cares much about college football. Maybe if Rutgers got really good at some point NYC might really get behind them, but the former is an unlikelihood and the latter is an uncertainty. And maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't see UConn ever having any significant pull in NYC.

Maryland seems like a better fit for the Big Ten in my opinion, but even it doesn't excite me much.

.....supports the direction I'm headed in. Connecticut is a suburb of New York City. UConn brings more interested NY fans than does Syracuse in upstate NY. So, it's my view that it's Rutgers and UConn together that deliver the NYC regional market.

The combined population of NY, NJ, CT, MA and eastern PA is in the 40 million range. At the moment there is little or no interest in Big Ten football in that area, with the exception of PA's following of Penn State. I think that interest in Penn State football in PA, NJ, MD, DE would be greater if Rutgers and UConn were in the Big Ten. In that case Penn State would no longer be the "eastern outlier" of a mid-west conference. Rather, the Big Ten would no longer be just a mid-western conference.
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Old 10-05-2011, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
With all due respect AC, how do you know that adding Rutgers and UConn would "take money from the pot"? The Big Ten's TV deal(s) would be renegotiated to take into accout the fact that the Big Ten then would have teams in an area where 20-30 million new TV viewers live.

I know nothing about such deals...but it seems at least possible that the increase in TV revenue would result in more money for each current Big Ten school. As far as "enhancing the conference". is concerened....from an academic/research perspective both Rutgers and UConn would add considerably more than ND would.

The Big Ten is comprised of 12 of the most hiighly respected public academic/research institutions in the country. Both Rutgers and UConn fit that description.

On another matter....there are schools in the ACC that are basketball schools, schools that are football schools, and schools that are both. But, the ACC's strongest sport is basketball....by far.

Syracuse and Pitt do not add strength in football; they do in basketball. I have been reading that from Florida State's perspective, adding SU and UP was the straw that broke the camel's back, i.e., the move adds to BB, nothing for FB. And, most definitely, FSU is a football school. All of which makes the lure of the SEC attractive to FSU. It will be interesting if the SEC's 14th team is FSU.
The Big Ten Network is doing just fine as it is. It is my understanding the Big Ten divides all profits equally, and each member is doing just fine financially. With all due respect, Rutgers and UConn, while near NYC, doesn't have a tremendous following. How did UConn's support do when they went to the Fiesta bowl? Like you say, nobody in the Northeast really cares all that much about college football. What brings in the money? College football. I don't really see what's in it for the current 12 members to bring in UConn, Rutgers or Maryland. There is a lot in it for those 12 members if they can somehow convince Notre Dame to join (I loathe Notre Dame, but they have clout), in turn the Big Ten will then look at one of those three to bring the conference to 14 members. They aren't going to expand just to expand. Like it or not, but Jim Delaney doesn't seem like a follower. The numbers need to make sense.

Best case scenario for The Big Ten is to convince Notre Dame to join and then Missouri to follow. But I don't see Notre Dame going that route any time soon, hence The Big Ten stays as it is.
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Old 10-05-2011, 11:39 PM
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Big10 is perfect at 12 teams right now. Missouri offers the Big10 very little. Certainly not an upgrade. Missouri is about like Illinois or Minnesota. Columbia isnt a metropolis and Missouri doesnt have national cred like OSU or Michigan. Besides, Missouri cant get into the Big10 if theres no 14th team anyway thats a real gem -- certainly better than Missouri. In other words, Mizzou cant be the best of the two teams added or it wont be added at all.

The Big10 will take Notre Dame and anyone else playing DI football. Theyd practically take ND and a MAC team if it meant getting ND's national eyeballs. But ND is in no mood to join from everything Ive read and theres absolutely no reason to as long as the BCS continues to give them their special exemptions into the major bowls based on performance thresholds. BYU doesnt get those same metrics. Neither does Navy. ND has their cake and is eating it too. Total autonomy to do what they want, when they want, however they choose. The Irish will never join the Big10 or ACC because of money. They are already like #3 or #4 total merchandising, TV, and revenue. Theres hardly anymore upward mobility in terms of cash. Besides, for all that cash, ND would then have to answer to the other Big10 schools. Right now they get all of the perks of big time football with none of the baggage.

Missouri could be taken as the 14th in the SEC however, though I dont see it being a perfect fit. The SEC must get to 14 sooner or later and any school that sits on their hands thinking others will sit idle too are going to miss the boat on getting that offer from the SEC. You need to be campaigning now and campaigning for it loud and often. Its kill or be killed.

I think FSU is a better choice for the SEC. I dont think FSU is happy with their football being in the ACC. But would Florida mind.

Still, if Mizzou gets an SEC invite -- and you need the invite from the league to get in as just wanting in isnt enough -- then the Big12 as I see it is fried chicken.

Theyve lost four major football schools (Colorado being dormant but historically strong), and they will not want to replace them with the likes of Tulsa, Houston, Rice, UCF, etc. They will want the best available and thats the Big East football schools. The BE schools will get poached to the Big12, not the other way around.

So I believe if Missouri leaves the Big12, that could be the shot across the bow that may trickle down to the likes of Dayton when its all said and done. Once the Big12 loses A&M, Nebraska, Missouri, and Colorado -- the Oklahomas and Texas' wont settle for anything less than trying to salvage a sinking boat by getting BE schools.
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Old 10-05-2011, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Adding schools that are already within the footprint of the [Big Ten] doesn't create much value. In that regard, adding ND would do less for the Big Ten than for either the ACC or SEC. So, it seems as if the greatest impact from Big Ten expansion will be to grow the conference footprint into contiguous states....or nearly so, e.g., east.
You may be the only person that thinks UConn would add more value to the Big Ten than Notre Dame.
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Old 10-05-2011, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
The Big Ten Network will be around for many years, and it is a huge money maker. Populous states like New Jersey and Connecticut are places of interest for cable networks like the BTN because they get paid for every TV in the coverage area (on top of the advertising dollars they get for selling commercial time in their broadcasts).

That's why I don't think you can discount Rutgers and UConn as potential Big Ten targets. With cable TV in the picture, the two schools are more attractive than you might think, and would likely bring more to the Big Ten table than they'd take away.
If Rutgers and UConn can even get a conference network to be picked up on the basic tier of cable/dish providers. The reason for the hesitation by the ACC and Big Ten (aside from the fact both ND is a bigger fish than either of those two).
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Old 10-06-2011, 07:37 AM
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I don't really think that....

Originally Posted by FSUFlyer View Post
You may be the only person that thinks UConn would add more value to the Big Ten than Notre Dame.

ND is truly unique and any conference would take them. But conference membership on an equal footing with a dozen or so other schools would be a very bitter pill for ND to swallow.....it's not in the schools DNA.

Back to "adding value". Thinking a conference would value any school over ND is nuts. But, in terms of TV money it's not as screwy as it sounds. A recent Business Week article that I've quoted before pointed out that ND's NBC TV ratings are poor and worsening. That means money! Joining a conference is not suddenly going to make ND's TV ratings soar. Adding millions of east coast TVs because of the addition of a Rutgers or a UConn...or both,....might actally have greater financial impact than adding ND.

That's what I meant...nothing more. No school can match ND's cachet.

I really do think that ND would have a very hard time living as an "equal" within a conference....and that's exactly what the schools of either the Big Ten or ACC would demand. ND will do all it can to remain independent....incl staying with a much weaker, restructured Big East.

The FSU-to-the-SEC angle is very intereresting. If the SEC would pull that off then the ACC would be the target for the first time, i.e, a conference "needing" to add at least one more team.

The Big East BB-only schools can only watch. Pitt and SU are a big loss for BE BB. If schools like UL and/or UC wind up in the Big 12 then there is little reason for the BB schools to remain with the dying BE FB schools that would by then offer little in terms of BB power.

Dayton may yet become involved in this mess.
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Old 10-06-2011, 08:27 AM
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Dayton will end up in the mess, only a matter of time.

My questions are:

1. Where will the rest of the BE football schools end up?
2. Will Villanova give up its FBS dreams?
3. Will ND remain independent?
4. Will this new basketball-only Big East have 9, 10, 12, 14, 16?
5. After the obvious Dayton/Xavier combination, who else is targeted?
6. Will the A10 survive, and in what fashion?
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Old 10-06-2011, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
The Big Ten Network will be around for many years, and it is a huge money maker. Populous states like New Jersey and Connecticut are places of interest for cable networks like the BTN because they get paid for every TV in the coverage area (on top of the advertising dollars they get for selling commercial time in their broadcasts).

That's why I don't think you can discount Rutgers and UConn as potential Big Ten targets. With cable TV in the picture, the two schools are more attractive than you might think, and would likely bring more to the Big Ten table than they'd take away.
The deal the BTN cut with the cable companies (revenue from every subscriber and not a premium package) may have worked in the midwest but I am not sure that flys in the northeast. There won't be the public outcry in NJ if fans can't see Rutgers on TV like there is in Ohio if tOSU is not on TV. As has been stated before college football in the northeast doesn't carry the same interest as in other parts of the country. Could it be that the potential revenue in the northeast is not as great as everyone thinks it is?
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Old 10-06-2011, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
The deal the BTN cut with the cable companies (revenue from every subscriber and not a premium package) may have worked in the midwest but I am not sure that flys in the northeast. There won't be the public outcry in NJ if fans can't see Rutgers on TV like there is in Ohio if tOSU is not on TV. As has been stated before college football in the northeast doesn't carry the same interest as in other parts of the country. Could it be that the potential revenue in the northeast is not as great as everyone thinks it is?

There absolutely no doubt that interest in football in the NE.....HS, college,...pales in comparison to interest in the mid-west and south. West coast interest is not all that great either. The compensating factor may be the population density along the east coast. In the U.S. people live along the east and west coasts. Only the TV gurus know for sure.

There is another angle....potential interest. Right now UConn and Rutgers fans don't get overly excited by the prospect of Louisville, Cincinnatti, West Virginia, etc, coming to play in East Hartford or New Brunswick. But, Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska playing in CT and NJ on a reasonably regular basis....wow! I'll bet UConn and RU would sell out 100% of the time for Big Ten games and would be enlarging their stadiums.

Believe it or not, there was a time when the NE led the nation in FB attendance,..because that's where big-time FB was being played. Penn State has no trouble getting 100,000+ to a game out in the wilderness of central PA where no one lives. Bring the Big Ten product to the east coast and I think people will come to games and will watch on TV. There is far less interest in the prospect of Duke, NC State, Clemson, etc., playing in the NE.

Big Ten Football is....."big"....and I think the people of the NE will embrace it. If the TV execs feel that way, how are they going to make it happen other than to add NE teams to the Big Ten....and there aren't many NE teams available. Recall, there is another factor concerning mid-west schools (incl UD) and TV gurus.....the population decline in the mid-west.
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Old 10-06-2011, 09:21 AM
Hyde Park Flyer Hyde Park Flyer is offline
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i think nd is bigger from a legitimacy angle than revenue. as has been pointed out, the ratings on nbc have crashed (no doubt this is connected to the poor on the field performance) and is not going to be renewed. but, money isn't the only consideration. nd brings tradition. that improves the big10's national profile. while the big10's football has been blemished over the last several years, adding nd would serve notice.

nd will not remain an independent. swarbuck said over the summer that he is monitoring the changing landscape. while he talked about the alumni's interest to remain independent, he mentioned that nd may be forced to join a conference. will the alumni be as determined to remain independent when the tv revenue drastically shrinks after nbc doesn't renew the contract? nd brings tradition, but are recruits going to be excited by an independent school that isn't on tv as often? i truly doubt it. i also question whether the acc will deliver a tv deal that will reach as many households as the big10. it may be great for basketball, but is anyone excited about acc football?
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  #379  
Old 10-06-2011, 09:27 AM
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UAC - Don't disagree with your assessment. I have northeasst roots but have been living in Ohio 30 years. It is just that there has been more and more push back from the cable companies on passing through the cost of programing to every subscriber. I have got to believe that we are approaching the limit of what people will pay. I just don't see the strong arm tactics used by the BTN in OH, IN, IL,working in NJ, NY and CT. I don't think the BTN can count on $x from every subscriber if UConn and RU are added to the B10. This may be OT but think of what we all pay for TV now versus 30 years ago. Add in the cost of cell phones and internet access and this adds up to some serious money.
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Old 10-06-2011, 10:21 AM
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ND's situation...

Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
i think nd is bigger from a legitimacy angle than revenue. as has been pointed out, the ratings on nbc have crashed (no doubt this is connected to the poor on the field performance) and is not going to be renewed. but, money isn't the only consideration. nd brings tradition. that improves the big10's national profile. while the big10's football has been blemished over the last several years, adding nd would serve notice.

nd will not remain an independent. swarbuck said over the summer that he is monitoring the changing landscape. while he talked about the alumni's interest to remain independent, he mentioned that nd may be forced to join a conference. will the alumni be as determined to remain independent when the tv revenue drastically shrinks after nbc doesn't renew the contract? nd brings tradition, but are recruits going to be excited by an independent school that isn't on tv as often? i truly doubt it. i also question whether the acc will deliver a tv deal that will reach as many households as the big10. it may be great for basketball, but is anyone excited about acc football?

First, while TV ratings are way down, the Business Week article did not suggest that NBC would not renew with ND...just that the deal is likely to be less lucrative...perhaps down a bit from the current $15 million.

True, ND may be forced kicking and screaming into a conference if the Big East becomes unattractive for other ND sports. That's what it will take, I think. As is, the BE deal with ND works very well for the Irish.

Do you really think that Big Ten FB has sunk so low that it "need"s ND? I'm not sure the BT schools would agree with that assessment. I'm also not sure that the Big Ten would admit ND with some sort of special status. Would Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin buy granting ND special, unequal status compared to other members?.....would Northwestern?

If not, ND would have very rough time as a conference member. As a Northwestern grad, for years I've heard NU grousing about always being on the short end of 9-1 votes. NU has nothing in common with the other Big Ten schools, other than being in the Big Ten with them. Notre Dame would be in exactly the same situation. Would the Big Ten schools bow down to ND when for a century they gave Northwestern no consideration whatsoever?

I don't know...but I do know that being a conference member and playing by the same rules as everyone else would be one rough awakening for Notre Dame....a school that is used to getting its own way all the time while treating everyone else badly in the process.
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:18 AM
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expect a new flurry of activity to begin with this move by TCU.

http://brett-mcmurphy.blogs.cbssport...32522/32536916

I still expect Missouri to the SEC.

What do the BE and the Big 12 do?
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  #382  
Old 10-06-2011, 11:42 AM
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Well, I guess we could have seen this coming. TCU would have looked pretty foolish joining the Big East only to see it disintegrate.

This should open the flood gates, but where will everyone go if the Big 12 stays put?
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:47 AM
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That is a huge move for both TCU and the Big East. I can't imagine the B12 was going to add TCU and just stop there, wouldn't make a ton of sense. I suspect this means Missouri is definently moving on and byu, louisville, UC and/or WVU are going to bring the conference up to 12 again.
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:56 AM
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This is bad not only from a numbers standpoint for the BE. I think any hope of holding on to BCS AQ status just left when TCU did.
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:56 AM
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UConn, Rutgers, Louisville, UC, WVU & USF sure as heck better hope they have an agreement to fall into either the B12, B10, SEC or ACC. Otherwise, why would this conference retain BCS status? It was shaky as is, I don't see much reason it can hold together.
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:56 AM
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Importance of leadership...

It's been six years since the first raid on the Big East by the ACC. After the dust settled and the C-USA teams were absorbed the BE had plenty of time to shore up the FB side. Coaches were urging for expansion. The Big East did nothing...perhaps blocked by the BB schools.

Had the Big East added 2-4 more schools 2-4 years ago this would not be happening. SU and UP left because they had a much more attractive option...now TCU is doing the same thing. Recall, it was a very, very short time ago that TCU thought it was making a good move by joining the BE...now it can't escape fast enough.

The BE is responsible in large measure for its fate.

With two great BB schools gone and the FB conference disintegrating....how long will it be before the BB-only presidents have their own private meeting to discuss "options". Clearly, their reason for sticking wih the BCS football schools is evaporating.

There is no reason to hurry, I suppose. But surely the BE BB schools, led by VU and GU, must have a Plan A, Plan B, etc. It seems likely that ND would be involved in the planning. Do the BE "Catholics" have enough strength in their BB and olympic sports to suit ND,...with ND remaining independent in FB and playing all other sports with the "Catholics"? Brew always felt that would happen.

The NBC contract is also an issue. ND does not need conference TV money. It seems as if NBC is still willing to support ND FB at the $10-12 million annual level, let's say,...and if the BE BB-only schools have strong enough sports program for ND,...maybe ND sticks with the BB-only schools and remains independent in FB. The counter argrument is that while that may work for a while..ND may feel it's not sustaianable in the long term, and better grab the best conference offer it can, while it still has good options.

Whatever, it appears as if the BE as a top FB conference is toast, no matter who joins with them...and now, what is the attraction for schools like ECU et al that once coveted BE membership?

This is sad and painful to watch as the remaining BE FB schools ponder their fate.

I still think FSU and the SEC may be a wild card. If the SEC takes an ACC team then the ACC goes hunting again...and its choices are few. ( I would love to see the ACC suffer some of the pain it has inflicted on the Big East schools.)
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Old 10-06-2011, 11:57 AM
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This could trigger some panic in the remaining Big East football schools. Once they decide they can take no more and try to make a big move, the dominos are upon us in the A10.
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Old 10-06-2011, 12:09 PM
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I mentioned it on the A-10 board the other day and will repeat it again here, the A-10 could be in serious trouble if the Big East football falls apart. Temple, UMass & Charlotte could be looking for a place for their football programs, or D1 football hopes (UMass has been down lately, don't know if Charlotte is still full steam ahead for football or not) Dayton, X, St Louis & Richmond would all be in play for a revamped Big East. For those left behind, all of a sudden the Missouri Valley and CAA start to look more attractive than the A-10.
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Old 10-06-2011, 12:31 PM
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Don't think so, Med...

Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I mentioned it on the A-10 board the other day and will repeat it again here, the A-10 could be in serious trouble if the Big East football falls apart. Temple, UMass & Charlotte could be looking for a place for their football programs, or D1 football hopes (UMass has been down lately, don't know if Charlotte is still full steam ahead for football or not) Dayton, X, St Louis & Richmond would all be in play for a revamped Big East. For those left behind, all of a sudden the Missouri Valley and CAA start to look more attractive than the A-10.

I think the BE BB schools have decided that they will stick together. With five on the east coast in major markets...and two in the mid-west, also in major markets....just adding two or three schools would make a good TV package. I don't see the CAA or MVC as being as attractive for TV as the current "Catholics" of the Big East....which would retain that name.

For those seven schools I don't think FB has anything to do with their decision. As for Villanova.....they have just dodged a rocket-sized bullet. VU will not upgrade FB and will thank God that it didn't decide to do so six months ago.

If ND sticks with the BE BB schools, adding UD and X would make a very attractive ten team league.....Dayton would love it. If Tim is doing his job he is in close contact with ADs at the BE BB schools so that UD will not be surprised...and so that those ADs know where UD stands. We may not control our own fate.....but we should not be surprised. I mentioned Plan A, Plan B, etc. of the BE BB-only schools.....if Tim has been doing his job he knows what Plan A, Plan B and Plan C are.
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Old 10-06-2011, 12:47 PM
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I have no doubts the Big East Basketball 7 will stick together, perhaps w/ ND and perhaps a few more as well and be well positioned as a non football conference. However, once you take those 7 (or 8) and add 2-5 more to get you up to 10 or 12. Where does that leave the remnants of the A-10? Temple, likely wants a full time home for its football. St Louis? If they're left out, and X and/or Dayton go w/ the Big East, they're headed to the MVC. Richmond? If X, Dayton, St louis & Temple are all gone, the CAA looks lot more promsing than what's left in the A-10.

Here's a scary thought for UD fans. What if the 8 schools in the big East stick together, and decide to add just 1 and choose X. Lets say, as a consequence, St Louis moves to the MVC, while Temple moves to C-USA with hopes of attracking an ACC or B10 bid based upon their philly market, does UD stay pat? Do they move to the MVC w/ St Louis? The MVC would be more attractive, but as UAC stated yesterday, UD is recruiting students more heavily on the east coast, which would be helped by having its most visable entity playing mostly w/n the mid west.

Hopefully for UD, should the Big East football disband and the 7/8 are looking to expand a 12 team conference makes the most sense. Add UD, X, St Louis and/or Butler to Marquette, DePaul and/or Notre Dame makes a lot of sense for a western half of that future conference. If they stick to 9 or 10, UD could be in a pickle.
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Old 10-06-2011, 12:49 PM
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Re-reading your post....

Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I mentioned it on the A-10 board the other day and will repeat it again here, the A-10 could be in serious trouble if the Big East football falls apart. Temple, UMass & Charlotte could be looking for a place for their football programs, or D1 football hopes (UMass has been down lately, don't know if Charlotte is still full steam ahead for football or not) Dayton, X, St Louis & Richmond would all be in play for a revamped Big East. For those left behind, all of a sudden the Missouri Valley and CAA start to look more attractive than the A-10.


I think I may have missed your point the first time. Yes, A10 schools that have a commitment to FBS FB have an issue to deal with. But, it's not a new issue. Temple and UMass have a safe home in the MAC waiting for the dust to settle. I think Charlotte is way behind those two, timewise.

With 14 schools the A10 is pretty large. Loss of UMass and Charlotte wouldn't hurt BB much, in my opinion. Loss of Temple would...but is survivable. From UD's perspective there is only one A10 school that matters...and that is Xavier. Any separation from X would be taken as a major, major blow by Dayton. The two schools have a solid relationship at the presidential level and will go to bat for one another....up to a point. Ultimately, X will do what it has to do...we can only hope that we are involved.
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Old 10-06-2011, 12:58 PM
Hyde Park Flyer Hyde Park Flyer is offline
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
First, while TV ratings are way down, the Business Week article did not suggest that NBC would not renew with ND...just that the deal is likely to be less lucrative...perhaps down a bit from the current $15 million.

True, ND may be forced kicking and screaming into a conference if the Big East becomes unattractive for other ND sports. That's what it will take, I think. As is, the BE deal with ND works very well for the Irish.

Do you really think that Big Ten FB has sunk so low that it "need"s ND? I'm not sure the BT schools would agree with that assessment. I'm also not sure that the Big Ten would admit ND with some sort of special status. Would Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin buy granting ND special, unequal status compared to other members?.....would Northwestern?

If not, ND would have very rough time as a conference member. As a Northwestern grad, for years I've heard NU grousing about always being on the short end of 9-1 votes. NU has nothing in common with the other Big Ten schools, other than being in the Big Ten with them. Notre Dame would be in exactly the same situation. Would the Big Ten schools bow down to ND when for a century they gave Northwestern no consideration whatsoever?

I don't know...but I do know that being a conference member and playing by the same rules as everyone else would be one rough awakening for Notre Dame....a school that is used to getting its own way all the time while treating everyone else badly in the process.
i was told by a member of the national media that nbc will not renew the contract. with the birth of the mega conferences, i think it's even more likely that nbc will position itself to grab a contract with one of them. tying itself to nd in the wake of conference reallignment would be foolish.


i'm not sure that the big10 needs nd (did i say that?). instead, as it grows, it will want to add legitimacy that rutgers, connecticut, maryland and missouri can't deliver. the sec can throw around its recent success, but the tradition of osu, michigan, nebraska, penn state and nd would be unparalleled. however, i don't think there's anyway that they get any sort of special status. the big10 will not provide exempt status like the big east did. if nd wants the prestige and money, join as a full member. the only room for discussion would be hockey, but i would push for that as well. the big10's hockey conference would benefit from nd. they've been a solid team over the last several years.

in the end, i see it coming down to the acc or big10. alumni probably want the acc where they'd be the big boy on the block. they probably see joining the big10 as a concession.
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Old 10-06-2011, 01:30 PM
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Tippin point...

Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
i was told by a member of the national media that nbc will not renew the contract. with the birth of the mega conferences, i think it's even more likely that nbc will position itself to grab a contract with one of them. tying itself to nd in the wake of conference reallignment would be foolish.


i'm not sure that the big10 needs nd (did i say that?). instead, as it grows, it will want to add legitimacy that rutgers, connecticut, maryland and missouri can't deliver. the sec can throw around its recent success, but the tradition of osu, michigan, nebraska, penn state and nd would be unparalleled. however, i don't think there's anyway that they get any sort of special status. the big10 will not provide exempt status like the big east did. if nd wants the prestige and money, join as a full member. the only room for discussion would be hockey, but i would push for that as well. the big10's hockey conference would benefit from nd. they've been a solid team over the last several years.

in the end, i see it coming down to the acc or big10. alumni probably want the acc where they'd be the big boy on the block. they probably see joining the big10 as a concession.

...if true, that would do it, I think. Even for ND, $15 million is a big deal. And since they would get $20+ million as a conference member...the net loss is even more. The alums would understand that.

So, I suppose it's a fight for ND between the ACC and Big Ten. Consider this: If the Big Ten wins ND....maybe it adds one more team and is happy....likewise for the ACC.

But, whichever conference prevails and adds ND, the losing conference is hurt, relatively. So, both the ACC and Big Ten wait on ND...but once ND decides, it seems unlikely that the losing conference will just sit still. Both can afford to wait...but once ND makes a move the other conference will respond.

For the ACC, adding ND brings it to 15...needing one more to get to 16. That provides incentive, I think, for the Big Ten to grow east. If the Big Ten adds ND, it too will want to add a team to get to 14....prompting the ACC to respond by growing to 16.

It appears that ND decision will trigger more moves....the key being whether or not ND must join a conference. There was nothing in the Bus Wk article to suggest that NBC was going to bail of Notre Dame...just that the numbers weren't right at $15 million a year. Whatever, the NBC decision could tip the balance one way or the other.
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Old 10-06-2011, 01:36 PM
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I've read as well that NBC may be trying to expand their college football saturdays by pulling away a conference from ABC/ESPN/CBS. Assuming conference expansion/contraction doesn't lead to a complete renogiation of any existing deal, I believe the B10 is the next major conference set to renew its television contracts. Perhaps NBC could push NBC into the B10 by bidding up the rights to obtain the B10.

The biggest challenges NBC faces having just Notre Dame home games on its network is the lack of key content and any road/bye dates on Notre Dame's schedule. Any given saturday, there is a compelling game on both CBS & ABC and perhaps something worthwhile on ESPN as well at 3:30. On a saturday night, there's always a decent game on ESPN and often a great matchup on CBS and/or ABC. Throw in Vs network, and the foxsport deals w/ the B12 & P12 as well as the B10 network and you know there is a game on somewhere at any time of the day.

turn into NBC on a saturday, perhaps there's a notre Dame game on, perhaps there's golf on, perhaps there's some movie of the week. Having off weeks during the season doesn't help, neither do the weeks where they have Purdue at Notre Dame or some other 2nd/3rd tier college playing in South Bend. The Die-Hard Irish fan will tune in, as well as the fans of the other school, but the casual fan, or general college football fan will easily find a better game to watch.

ABC gets a highly marketable B10, B12 or P12 game on every week, perhaps 2. CBS gets a solid, often highly marketable SEC game on every week, perhaps 2. NBC gets 3-4 highly marketable Notre Dame games on every season (Michigan, USC and 2 random others vs their national schedule), the rest is window dressing. With the state of Notre Dame the last decade, there haven't been many top 10 matchups to sell themselves and make people tune in. That's a lot of money spent not pulling in the casual fan who might see an add for other programming on your network and watch it a little more often than they do today.
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Old 10-06-2011, 01:39 PM
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I think Notre Dame would insist an East coast school was added to the B10 in order to agree to joining. I think the B10 would comply w/ either Rutgers or maryland.
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Old 10-06-2011, 02:26 PM
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oh, i agree that the big10 goes east while they wait for nd. it's not nd and no others. i think this is why missouri is looking at the sec rather than getting the invite to the big10. suddenly, rutgers, connecticut and maryland are sexier conference mates than louisville or cincinnati (the latter 2 being left out of all of the reallignment talks). bizarre.
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Old 10-06-2011, 02:37 PM
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radom stuff pilfered from the A-10 board, sorry for the lack of links...

BYU no longer under consideration for the B12 according to some Texas connected twitter

Louisville is next in line for a B12 bid, expect one soon from some other source.. I guess we'll see, if true, I imagine there would be a pause after adding louisville to see what Missouri does (ESPN is reporting that there were not enough votes in the SEC to add missouri) before adding beyond that. If missouri leaves, to they stick to 10 or go to 12? If Missouri stays, they need to add at least 1 more.
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Old 10-06-2011, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
UConn, Rutgers, Louisville, UC, WVU & USF sure as heck better hope they have an agreement to fall into either the B12, B10, SEC or ACC. Otherwise, why would this conference retain BCS status? It was shaky as is, I don't see much reason it can hold together.
There's a reason why these schools are standing on the wall without a dance partner. Most of those are the hangers-on, schools that probably should not have been in a BCS conference in the first place. As far as I'm concerned, conferences should not water themselves down athletically, academically, and/or geographically to make sure that those schools retain the place in an AQ conference. The only school I'd truly feel sorry for if their football program had to find a home in a non-AQ conference would be West Virginia. The rest were on borrowed time anyways.
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Old 10-06-2011, 04:16 PM
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BT to the east...

.....perhaps. But mentioning Rutgers, UConn and/or Maryland as BT possibilities seems to overlook the fact that UM is in the ACC, whereas the other two are more than "available". Why would UM want to join the Big Ten? Is there evidence that UM is unhappy in the ACC?....or that the DC area is a hotbed of college sports?

So, let's suppose that it's a choice between Rutgers and UConn. Both schools bring the NYC market, to the extent that there is such a market for college FB. But, UConn brings national championship men's and women's basketball.....plus other sports that have won national championships....and, perhaps, a slight edge academically.

As for overall sports, Rutgers is not a match for UConn.
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Old 10-06-2011, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
i was told by a member of the national media that nbc will not renew the contract. with the birth of the mega conferences, i think it's even more likely that nbc will position itself to grab a contract with one of them. tying itself to nd in the wake of conference reallignment would be foolish.
I've read that before all of this happened, NBC was ready to throw big money at the Big East to grab hold of the conference's television rights. Obviously now that isn't likely to happen, but the network still may be a player when another major conference's rights free up.

Personally, if I'm an exec at NBC, I'm looking to drop ND like a bad habit, especially now. As exciting as ND taking on Western Michigan or Tulsa may be (and there will more of these games in the future as teams have less open dates in October and November with extended conference play), NBC would have more options and flexibility if they just used every dime they had to land the rights for one of the better conferences. Or maybe they do keep ND, but offer them significantly less than what they're currently getting.
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