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  #1  
Old 02-15-2014, 02:11 AM
Glen Clark Glen Clark is offline
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Bubble Watch

This year's edition of Bubble Watch is underway, and - sure 'nuff - there's the Flyers with 'work left to do' . . .

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

". . . Dayton's next chance to really impress comes Feb. 25 at Saint Joe's. . ."

If the Flyers don't beat La Salle and Duquesne, St Joe's won't much matter.

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  #2  
Old 02-15-2014, 05:01 AM
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Well if we are going to play the "if" game then if Dayton wins out they are in. Or if Dayton does not win out but wins the A-10 tournament then they are in.
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Old 02-15-2014, 10:03 AM
The Gem The Gem is offline
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I'd say work left to do is just about right. After the St. Joe game they were just plain out unless they won the A-10 tournament, but since then they have been playing their way back to bubble team status. If the positive results keep coming, they might just surprise everybody including me.
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Old 02-15-2014, 03:03 PM
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My prediction: we're in if we win a game in the conference tournament to make up for every loss over our last 6 games. If we win out the regular season, we're in - period. For every game we lose in the regular season, we'll need a win in the tournament. In the end: 23 wins on selection Sunday.
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  #5  
Old 02-17-2014, 08:04 PM
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Prediction that will make me look stupid: The Atlantic 10 will get as many -- or more -- teams in the NCAA tournament than the ACC.

The A-10 is positioned to potentially get six teams to the tournament. The ACC has four solid teams and a Pitt team that most feel will get in, but a closer look at the Panthers' body of work reveals a team that is 1-6 against the BPI top 50 and 8-6 against the top 100. The Panthers have work to do. If you compare that to the A-10 ... Saint Louis and VCU are solid.



Massachusetts is 3-1 against the top 50 and 11-4 against the top 100, with a win versus New Mexico (BPI: 38). George Washington is 2-3 against the BPI top 50 and 7-5 against the top 100, with its best wins against Creighton (BPI: 14)and VCU (BPI: 26). The Colonials should be in. The "bubble" teams in the Atlantic-10 -- Saint Joseph's, Richmond and even Dayton -- have as many wins or more wins versus the top 50 as a team like Pitt does. But sure, they have work to do in the final four weeks of the season.
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Old 02-17-2014, 08:25 PM
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A-10 is probably looking at 5 teams in. Right now there are 6, but 2 are right on the cusp so it's likely one drops out. Dayton could also move in pretty easily if they take care of business. If it's close, the A-10 isn't going to get style points. Which means it will probably be 5. Beating Richmond and St Joe's is especially important to knock them down a notch, because we probably have to steal a bid from one of them.
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Old 02-17-2014, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by walkon View Post
Prediction that will make me look stupid: The Atlantic 10 will get as many -- or more -- teams in the NCAA tournament than the ACC.

The A-10 is positioned to potentially get six teams to the tournament. The ACC has four solid teams and a Pitt team that most feel will get in, but a closer look at the Panthers' body of work reveals a team that is 1-6 against the BPI top 50 and 8-6 against the top 100. The Panthers have work to do. If you compare that to the A-10 ... Saint Louis and VCU are solid.



Massachusetts is 3-1 against the top 50 and 11-4 against the top 100, with a win versus New Mexico (BPI: 38). George Washington is 2-3 against the BPI top 50 and 7-5 against the top 100, with its best wins against Creighton (BPI: 14)and VCU (BPI: 26). The Colonials should be in. The "bubble" teams in the Atlantic-10 -- Saint Joseph's, Richmond and even Dayton -- have as many wins or more wins versus the top 50 as a team like Pitt does. But sure, they have work to do in the final four weeks of the season.
I made that prediction back in December and was ridiculed on this board...Also said the A-10 would have a higher conference RPI than the ACC. Just missed on that one...
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:59 PM
NorthwestFlyer NorthwestFlyer is offline
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Bubble watch update.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

We are still in the discussion, but a bit of a grim description with the lack of a game this weekend. They will have to bring it the rest of the way, or it is just another season, same as the last.

Dayton [17-8 (5-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 57] The Flyers are probably even further behind their bubble-populating conference cohort, and it doesn't help that Rhode Island (where Dayton lost Jan. 25) seems to keep plummeting in the computer rankings (Saturday's home loss to Duquesne will do that). It would be all too easy for the committee to look at Dayton's CV and say they were either bad or mediocre every week of the season except one -- in Maui. Archie Miller's team has one month to change that perception.
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Old 02-18-2014, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
Bubble watch update.

It would be all too easy for the committee to look at Dayton's CV and say they were either bad or mediocre every week of the season except one -- in Maui. Archie Miller's team has one month to change that perception.[/I]
Never thought of it that way but very true.
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  #10  
Old 02-18-2014, 05:14 PM
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Big Apple Buckets and Bracket Matrix both have us as a #1 seed in the NIT - two more sources that have us very close to the NCAA.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
Bubble watch update.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

We are still in the discussion, but a bit of a grim description with the lack of a game this weekend. They will have to bring it the rest of the way, or it is just another season, same as the last.

Dayton [17-8 (5-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 57] The Flyers are probably even further behind their bubble-populating conference cohort, and it doesn't help that Rhode Island (where Dayton lost Jan. 25) seems to keep plummeting in the computer rankings (Saturday's home loss to Duquesne will do that). It would be all too easy for the committee to look at Dayton's CV and say they were either bad or mediocre every week of the season except one -- in Maui. Archie Miller's team has one month to change that perception.
Or they might look at it as they only had one bad 5 game streak and realize they were playing without 2 post players during that run.

I'm guessing the selection committee is smarter than the media.
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  #12  
Old 02-19-2014, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Or they might look at it as they only had one bad 5 game streak and realize they were playing without 2 post players during that run.

I'm guessing the selection committee is smarter than the media.
But it's okay for Ok St to drop 7 straight and still be in ESPN's own Bracketology. Please...
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  #13  
Old 02-21-2014, 04:34 PM
NorthwestFlyer NorthwestFlyer is offline
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Update today: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Dayton [18-8 (6-5), RPI: 57, SOS: 65] Dayton fan @BradGingrich tweeted at the Watch with a useful reminder on Dayton this week -- that, outside of an injury-induced four-game losing streak in January, the Flyers are 17-4. Which is true, and something the committee should take into consideration. But it doesn't wipe out the losses to Illinois State and USC in December, or get the mid-50s RPI number up into slightly safer territory. Still lots of work to do.

It would be nice if this is true that we had some injuries to our bigs that would help cover for the 4 game skid. I doubt that we will get any points for having our "upperclassmen" point guard with chronic knee problems. As the saying goes the last few weeks, our destiny is in our hands. Keep up the grind Flyers and take care of business on the road Saturday.

Interesting take on St. Joe's and Richmond. They are seemingly getting swirled against each other for one of the last spots. The next few weeks will be interesting, and hopefully not disheartening for us Flyer fans.
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  #14  
Old 02-21-2014, 06:38 PM
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We are a 4 man post team that uses 12-15 of those fouls. Gavrolivic and Kavanaugh were both out with concussions as well during that skid. You can't say having two more bangers wouldn't have helped with practice and on defense.
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Old 02-22-2014, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
Update today: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Dayton [18-8 (6-5), RPI: 57, SOS: 65] Dayton fan @BradGingrich tweeted at the Watch with a useful reminder on Dayton this week -- that, outside of an injury-induced four-game losing streak in January, the Flyers are 17-4. Which is true, and something the committee should take into consideration. But it doesn't wipe out the losses to Illinois State and USC in December, or get the mid-50s RPI number up into slightly safer territory. Still lots of work to do.

It would be nice if this is true that we had some injuries to our bigs that would help cover for the 4 game skid. I doubt that we will get any points for having our "upperclassmen" point guard with chronic knee problems. As the saying goes the last few weeks, our destiny is in our hands. Keep up the grind Flyers and take care of business on the road Saturday.

Interesting take on St. Joe's and Richmond. They are seemingly getting swirled against each other for one of the last spots. The next few weeks will be interesting, and hopefully not disheartening for us Flyer fans.
And if the guys can take care of business by beating St. Joe's in Philly and beating Richmond on Senior Night, then they will have made a couple of strong statements against 2 teams that are seemingly ahead on them in consideration for The Dance. That would help prove that the 1-5 start in league play was the exception, not the rule (and an exception with an explanation, to boot).

But I'm getting ahead of myself. First things first. BEAT DUQUESNE THIS AFTERNOON!!!
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Old 02-22-2014, 09:29 AM
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Most teams deal with injuries during the season...UD is no exception...nor is Cal, GW...etc. And I doubt that the Committee will give us much of a break considering Gav and Kav - at the time - were contributing about as as much in games as the Arena custodian.

IMHO, we need to finish in the A10's top 4 and make the Tourny semis or, if we finish 5th-7th, need to make the A10 Finals. Otherwise it'll be a nervous Selection Sunday.
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Old 02-22-2014, 09:34 AM
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I don't know about the other bubble teams but Minn is at OSU and St. John's is at Villanova. Both should lose and that is good for Flyers.
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Old 02-22-2014, 09:42 AM
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After OSU, Minnesota plays Iowa and Penn State at home with @ Michigan sandwiched between. If they go 2-2, we're going to stay behind them.

St. John's still has _avier and DePaul at home and finished as Marquette. Again, 2-2 keeps them ahead of us.
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Old 02-22-2014, 01:08 PM
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http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tou...tology/detail/

This is a pretty good site to see the over all chances of getting in....about a 25% chance right now.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tou...tology/detail/
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Old 02-22-2014, 04:32 PM
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Just for giggles and grins...

This is before our win (gulp) today and their beat down by Georgetown.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../DAYTON/XAVIER
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Old 02-22-2014, 04:39 PM
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It is going to kill me when I see X, Georgetown, etc. in front of us in next bubble watch.

Xavier, RPI 50, 4-8 Road/Neutral, Top 100 Road/Neutral Wins 1 (Neutral Cincy), 2-4 top 50, 4-2 51-100, 12-2 101+.
Dayton RPI 54, 8-4 Road/Neutral, Top 100 R/N Wins 4 (Zaga, Cal, St. Bon., Ole Miss), 3-5 top 50, 4-0 51-100, 11-3 101+.
Xavier = slightly better RPI, slighly better 100+ with 1 less loss, slightly better top win of Cincy at 20 versus Zaga at 26.
Dayton = dominating Road/Neutral of 8-4 versus 4-8 X; dominating top 100 R/N Wins of 4 versus 1; better top 50 3-5 versus 2-4; better 51-100 of 4-0 versus 4-2.

I could do this with every bubble team -- beyond the "eye test," objectively I do not understand how X, Georgetown, SMU, etc. are above us. They have no good top 100 away/neutral wins. They have less top 100 wins, less top 50 wins, worse road/neutral records. Only big negative for us is we have 1 more bad loss.
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Old 02-22-2014, 05:13 PM
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Ruechalgrin,

This should make you feel better.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...oaded-saturday

Winners: Dayton
Losers: Eggsavier
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Old 02-22-2014, 05:17 PM
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How many RPI teams 26-60 have a winning record versus top 100. Only 10 and Dayton is one of them with a 7-5 record.

How may RPI Teams 26-60 have 3+ 101+ RPI losses. Only 5 and Dayton is one of them with 3 losses.

How many RPI Teams 26-60 have road/neutral winning record? About 20 and Dayton is one.

How many RPI Teams 26-60 have 4 road/neutral wins versus top 100 teams? Very few, hard to find many.

So does the committee value good wins (top 100) or bad losses (101+) more as we unfortunately dominate both -- we are 2 different teams! I think the tie-breaker is our road/neutral record and top 100 road/neutral record which beats everyone even teams with RPIs in the 30s.
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Old 02-22-2014, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Ruechalgrin,

This should make you feel better.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...oaded-saturday

Winners: Dayton
Losers: Eggsavier
It does :-), just kills me the "eye-test" seems to be prevailing versus facts.
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Old 02-22-2014, 05:19 PM
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To answer your question, good wins generally override the bad losses as long as you have enough of them. That is why DanceCard has the Flyers in.
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  #26  
Old 02-22-2014, 05:32 PM
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Tennessee just got a bad loss at Texas A&M. They are in trouble now.
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Old 02-22-2014, 06:11 PM
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But LSU just stepped in. Kills me that a 7-6 team out of the weak SEC will likely move into the field for beating UK. OMG - scratch that. UK at the line.

Dodge a bullet for the moment. OT: UK-LSU.

Bubble team below us stays put!!!! UK wins!!

I'm glad basketball isn't like horseshoes. No points for being close.

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  #28  
Old 02-22-2014, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
But LSU just stepped in. Kills me that a 7-6 team out of the weak SEC will likely move into the field for beating UK. OMG - scratch that. UK at the line.

Dodge a bullet for the moment. OT: UK-LSU.

Bubble team below us stays put!!!! UK wins!!

I'm glad basketball isn't like horseshoes. No points for being close.
What's funny is that if LSU had won this game and UD wins at St Louis the result would have been about the same. Do you think the media would have talked about the UD win as much as LSU beating UK. That's the bias that the A10 has to deal with.
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  #29  
Old 02-22-2014, 06:55 PM
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I know this has been posted, but I hope these guys are as good as they were last year.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

and this was before we won and Xavier lost today...

Performance

The original version of the Dance Card missed on more than three spots in only two seasons (2007 and 2008). Over the 15-year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%).

Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large slots (or 97% accuracy).

The updated version of the Dance Card, which included adjustments for historical conference-related biases found in past committee decisions, correctly predicted 35 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2012, 34 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2011, 33 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2010, and 32 of the 34 at-large slots in 2009, for an overall accuracy of 94.4% (134 out of 142) for these four years. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 329 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 96.5% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged just over one at-large slot missed per year).

When we removed the conference-related biases from the Dance Card to predict the 2012 selections, it correctly predicted 36 of the 37 bids that year. As a result we concluded that the 2012 committee did not follow the biases of past committees, and decided to use this "unbiased" version of the Dance Card to generate the 2013 ranking. In 2013, it perfectly predicted 37 of 37 bids, making this version 73 of 74 (or 98.6%) in the two years combined. We therefore conclude that the 2012 and 2013 committees were unbiased.

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria. The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.

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ruechalgrin (02-22-2014)
  #30  
Old 02-22-2014, 07:18 PM
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Ud90, if you haven't done so already, watch the 30 minute video on the DanceCard site. It explains why they have been successful picking teams.
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Old 02-22-2014, 07:29 PM
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Ok. I'm a man of his word. We are 19-8 and it's time to start checking the projections. Tomorrow morning when all these games have shaken out, I'm going to sit on the crapper and assess our Flyers position for the tournament.
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Old 02-22-2014, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Ok. I'm a man of his word. We are 19-8 and it's time to start checking the projections. Tomorrow morning when all these games have shaken out, I'm going to sit on the crapper and assess our Flyers position for the tournament.
no better place to think
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Flyer 86 (02-24-2014)
  #33  
Old 02-22-2014, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I know this has been posted, but I hope these guys are as good as they were last year.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

and this was before we won and Xavier lost today...

Performance

The original version of the Dance Card missed on more than three spots in only two seasons (2007 and 2008). Over the 15-year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%).

Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large slots (or 97% accuracy).

The updated version of the Dance Card, which included adjustments for historical conference-related biases found in past committee decisions, correctly predicted 35 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2012, 34 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2011, 33 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2010, and 32 of the 34 at-large slots in 2009, for an overall accuracy of 94.4% (134 out of 142) for these four years. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 329 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 96.5% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged just over one at-large slot missed per year).

When we removed the conference-related biases from the Dance Card to predict the 2012 selections, it correctly predicted 36 of the 37 bids that year. As a result we concluded that the 2012 committee did not follow the biases of past committees, and decided to use this "unbiased" version of the Dance Card to generate the 2013 ranking. In 2013, it perfectly predicted 37 of 37 bids, making this version 73 of 74 (or 98.6%) in the two years combined. We therefore conclude that the 2012 and 2013 committees were unbiased.

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria. The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.
I just hope the committee is consistent. I keep hearing Minnesota, SMU, Xavier, Georgetown, Richmond, Tenn., St. John's, Oklahoma St., Arkansas, West Virginia, Providence, etc. all ahead of us with the media experts (who do influence the committee). Objectively, our road/neutral wins, our top 50 and top 100 record destroys all of their resumes even with 3 bad losses.

But all 10 teams I list above are ahead of us in most bracketologies which worries me -- as they all except Richmond come from BCS conferences who get the eye-test advantage.
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Old 02-22-2014, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Ok. I'm a man of his word. We are 19-8 and it's time to start checking the projections. Tomorrow morning when all these games have shaken out, I'm going to sit on the crapper and assess our Flyers position for the tournament.
Good use of the word crapper and assess in the same sentence.
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Buster Goode (02-22-2014)
  #35  
Old 02-22-2014, 08:49 PM
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Could be worse. What is going on at Temple this year. That is a brutal record.
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Flyer 86 (02-22-2014)
  #36  
Old 02-22-2014, 09:46 PM
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I didn't know you say crapper.
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Old 02-22-2014, 10:13 PM
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Missouri just lost to a really bad Alabama team. Today went very well for the Flyers.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:56 AM
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What UD has in it's favor right now is "last 10 games of the season". Should UD go 2-2 over these last 4 games, that equals an 8-2 record over the last 10 games going into the conference tourney. If they do 2-2 at a minimum, and make it to the semis in the a10 tourney, it would be hard to leave them out. Not saying the selection committee wouldn't snub because they've done so to our Flyers in the past but considering its now 68 teams and we host first 4 and it wouldn't cost anything to make us a play-in game, that could happen.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
I just hope the committee is consistent. I keep hearing Minnesota, SMU, Xavier, Georgetown, Richmond, Tenn., St. John's, Oklahoma St., Arkansas, West Virginia, Providence, etc. all ahead of us with the media experts (who do influence the committee). Objectively, our road/neutral wins, our top 50 and top 100 record destroys all of their resumes even with 3 bad losses.

But all 10 teams I list above are ahead of us in most bracketologies which worries me -- as they all except Richmond come from BCS conferences who get the eye-test advantage.
West Virginia is 7-7 in the B12 and 15-12 overall. Likely to lose to Iowa State and Kansas in their last 4. I don't see how any team that is 9-9, and 17-14 would be in any bubble discussion. Realistically they would have to win the B12 tourney.
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Old 02-23-2014, 11:55 AM
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Palm has us last 4 in :-)!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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UD90 (02-23-2014)
  #41  
Old 02-23-2014, 12:02 PM
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...oaded-saturday

Bubble teams winners and losers from Saturday.
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  #42  
Old 02-23-2014, 12:38 PM
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Lunardi tweeted this out earlier this morning:

"FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech."

That's very promising! We moved up about 4 sports from his last bracketology into the first four out. I'm still confused by Minnesota and Gtown being in the discussion but whatever. It also looks as if he has moved St. Joes up to an at-large, Tuesday's game is HUGE, not a must-win, but certainly a lot on the line. I am assuming espn.com will update Lunardi's bracketology page sometime today or tomorrow.
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Buster Goode (02-23-2014)
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Old 02-23-2014, 01:35 PM
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Strangely enough the DanceCard doesn't take into account the last 10 record. What I think alot of people are missing is the road record. Flyers are now 6-3 on the road and 2-1 neutral court which is leaps and bounds better than most other bubble teams. DanceCard gives alot of weight to this metric.
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  #44  
Old 02-23-2014, 01:48 PM
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I think St Joe's is a must win for the at-large resume. If we lose Tuesday, we will be forced to win at St Louis. I'm not confident in the 2-2 finish theory, even with a semifinal showing the conference tournament.
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Old 02-23-2014, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Strangely enough the DanceCard doesn't take into account the last 10 record. What I think alot of people are missing is the road record. Flyers are now 6-3 on the road and 2-1 neutral court which is leaps and bounds better than most other bubble teams. DanceCard gives alot of weight to this metric.
Good point. Let's hope the committee gives that strong consideration. But they have been known to change the criteria from year to year and even from team to team in the same year. I have heard them say the last 10/12 are significant and other years say the last 10/12 are not, that they look only at the total body of work. I have seen the Chairman contradict himself as to why a particular team made it and why others didn't when being questioned after the selection. I wonder when UD last had a better road conference record (4-2) than home (3-3) - maybe never.
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Old 02-23-2014, 02:14 PM
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"Last 10" no longer appears on the Nitty Gritty report the Selection Committee is given at the start of the process. It can be considered, it is just no longer on the hard data given to them. I.e Top 50 wins, W-L on road/neutral etc.
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Old 02-23-2014, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
What UD has in it's favor right now is "last 10 games of the season". Should UD go 2-2 over these last 4 games, that equals an 8-2 record over the last 10 games going into the conference tourney. If they do 2-2 at a minimum, and make it to the semis in the a10 tourney, it would be hard to leave them out. Not saying the selection committee wouldn't snub because they've done so to our Flyers in the past but considering its now 68 teams and we host first 4 and it wouldn't cost anything to make us a play-in game, that could happen.
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The last-10/last-12 analysis is a myth. Historically and statistically, it has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not a team is selected. Watch the 30 minute interview with the dance card creators. They explain this and other fallacies.
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Old 02-23-2014, 03:21 PM
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Joe's love affair with the Big Least, and other anomalies

Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
Lunardi tweeted this out earlier this morning:

"FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech." . . .

Lunatic Lunardi: LA Tech? Dance Card has them at 91, right behind Iona and Manhattan, 44 slots below the cut-off line. Their RPI is 82. They beat Oklahoma and . . . St Bonaventure. They lost at East Carolina (RPI 194) and at home to Louisiana Lafayette (RPI 132). They've played 14 games against teams with RPIs below 200.
Please.

Marquette? They did scrape by DePaul in overtime last night . . .
Their only notable win outside the Big Least was over George Washington last November. Their record is 16-11 - and they might not win another game this season.
Dance Card has them 23 slots below the cut-off line.

LSU? Fifteen slots below the Dance Card cut-off line, RPI 65, record 16-10. Their only notable win out of conference was over St Joe's on a neutral court, balanced by a home loss to Rhode Island (RPI 184). Their win over Kentucky nine games back was followed by a 3-4 run capped by a loss to Kentucky last night. Winning out might be their only hope.

Georgetown? Dance Card has the Hoyas 12 slots below the cut-off line. The home loss to Northeastern (RPI 225) and two losses to Seton Hall (RPI 120) kind of takes the shine off their two signature wins over VCU and Michigan State. They close out the regular season with Creighton and Villanova, making their Thursday game against Marquette an elimination round event. RPI: 62, record: 16-11.

St John's? Joe has them as a ten seed, but the Dance Card has the three slots below the cut-off line. Their only remarkable win out of conference was over San Francisco (RPI 75), and seven of their non-conference opponents were in the bottom half of the RPI.

And how about Xavier - last team in on the Dance Card? Losers of 5 of their last eight games, with nary a sign of DePaul or Butler down the stretch. Joe has them a ten seed (?), but one more loss could push them to the wrong side of the bubble.

More to come: Providence (last four in), Oregon, and Nebraska all play today - stay tuned.

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Old 02-23-2014, 03:46 PM
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I think Lunardi must be smoking something funny. If you remember, there was a mock selection by the sportswriters two weeks ago. That was before our last three wins and we were in the last four out. Since that time many of the teams selected have had bad losses. I personally think DanceCard will be most accurate because it strictly uses the metrics the committee has used over the past decade. There is no personal bias involved. I would say that top 50 wins, top 100 wins and road record will be the most important criteria. This will be followed by SOS in OOC.
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Old 02-23-2014, 04:08 PM
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Lunardi definitely has moles inside because he always adjusts his field right before the actual field is announced and, lo and behold, he is almost always right, but not until the very last minute...
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Old 02-23-2014, 05:32 PM
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Personally, I like how the layout on "Brad's Big Board" of Yahoo. The layout is current and provides a quick eye test of who's in the mix.

http://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/

Given where the Flyers were a month ago, I give this team credit for how they gutted out the wins. I still think they were playing their best ball in the Maui. They seemed loose and more comfortable in what they were trying to do. The last two wins were ugly.

UD’s last four games are tough. There isn't an easy game remaining. We play teams that play solid defense against some very disciplined teams in St Joe, SLU, & Richmond. We can expect Martelli, Crews, and Mooney to have their teams really well prepared. I would like to see them push the tempo and score in the mid 80's by getting more shot attempts then their opponents. These three teams are led by senior PG's (Lindsey, Jett, & Galloway) which gives them an advantage vs our relatively inexperienced guards in Price & Smith.

In the end, it will be a tough stretch for the Flyers. GW, UMASS, Richmond, St Joes and Richmond all play games against the lower half of the league. The Flyers have the toughest 4 games. More importantly, we’re still behind all of these teams in the standings.

It’s always tough to pick a team lower in the final conference standings which is likely our reality if we win just 2 games.

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Old 02-23-2014, 07:33 PM
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I just noticed that Dance Card has the UD RPI as 50. The NCAA site lists it at 58 but that did not include yesterday's game. I wonder how the Flyers would be ranked on Dance Card if the RPI was plugged in at a higher number?
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Old 02-23-2014, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I just noticed that Dance Card has the UD RPI as 50. The NCAA site lists it at 58 but that did not include yesterday's game. I wonder how the Flyers would be ranked on Dance Card if the RPI was plugged in at a higher number?
The dance card references the old RPI formula.

"In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years."
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Old 02-23-2014, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Windy City Flyer View Post
Personally, I like how the layout on "Brad's Big Board" of Yahoo. The layout is current and provides a quick eye test of who's in the mix.

http://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/

Given where the Flyers were a month ago, I give this team credit for how they gutted out the wins. I still think they were playing their best ball in the Maui. They seemed loose and more comfortable in what they were trying to do. The last two wins were ugly.

UD’s last four games are tough. There isn't an easy game remaining. We play teams that play solid defense against some very disciplined teams in St Joe, SLU, & Richmond. We can expect Martelli, Crews, and Mooney to have their teams really well prepared. I would like to see them push the tempo and score in the mid 80's by getting more shot attempts then their opponents. These three teams are led by senior PG's (Lindsey, Jett, & Galloway) which gives them an advantage vs our relatively inexperienced guards in Price & Smith.

In the end, it will be a tough stretch for the Flyers. GW, UMASS, Richmond, St Joes and Richmond all play games against the lower half of the league. The Flyers have the toughest 4 games. More importantly, we’re still behind all of these teams in the standings.

It’s always tough to pick a team lower in the final conference standings which is likely our reality if we win just 2 games.
Lindsey is out for the year, Richmond has a fresh, very talented, running thecshow
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:23 PM
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What was that site that summarizes the projections for a bunch of different prognosticators?
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:35 PM
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www.bracketmatrix.com
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:44 PM
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So the Wednesday game at SJU appears to be an NCAA play-in game.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:37 PM
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Yes, except it is Tuesday.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:39 PM
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The St Joe's game is TUESDAY NIGHT! Important to note that. i think it's the only conference game not on a Wednesday or Saturday.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
So the Wednesday game at SJU appears to be an NCAA play-in game.
Way too early for that, but every game is important. We're 4 wins away from an NCAA berth. Any 4 wins.
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Old 02-24-2014, 11:54 AM
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Dance Card is now updated with all games to date.
The bubble burst line is after 47.

UD at 43

Take a look at this pack

VCU 33
Cal 34
GW 35
St Joes 36
Gonzaga 38
Rich 45

Our best wins aren't that much above us now. We need to take care of our own business.

Go Flyers!
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Old 02-24-2014, 12:19 PM
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It speaks to the strength of the conference that Dayton has the opportunity to boost their resume against four tournament-caliber opponents to finish the season. A10 has been all any Flyer fan could have hoped for this year.
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Old 02-24-2014, 12:34 PM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi's bracketology updated this morning. We are in the First Four Out, third team out of the tournament. Richmond is one spot ahead of us and St. Joes is now an 11 seed. Umass also moved up to a 7 and St. Louis is a comfortable 4 seed.

A few things:
-With the updated seedings these last four games are BRUTAL, we already knew that, but wow talk about an opportunity that most teams would kill to have. We have a chance to go from a bubble team to an absolute lock in next two weeks if we take care of business. That being said we also have more breathing room than most bubble teams and can afford a loss, maybe two, as long as we do something in Brooklyn

-A few teams that Lunardi has ahead of us or even in the field that blow my mind, Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, etc. I could go on for days comparing resumes but I won't bother, just something that makes me scratch my head.

-I think St. Louis only being a 4 seed is a joke when you look at the other 4 and 3 seeds. I don't get how he can have Michigan as a 3 seed ahead of SLU.

Regardless, none of this nonsense matters unless we take care of business! We are in a position to either play ourselves in or out and I'll take that any day of the week after how this team looked a few weeks ago, let's get it done!
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Old 02-24-2014, 12:59 PM
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^^^ regarding Tennessee & Missouri (as well as Arkansas and Georgia which is the team that originally prompted my research).

Over on the A-10 board, I noticed the compliant about how Arkansas was near the field in somebody's bracketology and someone else claimed how Georgia is no where near the field now, but they have winnable games ahead of them and could play themselves into the field by finishing something like 12-6 in the SEC.

anyhoo, I went looking, and immediately threw out UK & Florida, who traditionaly play a fairly strong OOC schedule, including a trip or two against legit teams in a true away game (ie on their home court, not taking on Duke at the Garden or something). After taking away Florida and UK, the remaining 12 teams were a combined 2-16 (I believe) in true road games, those 2 wins were at NC State (Missouri) and @ Coastal Carolina (I forget who) The whole SEC appears to be a paper tiger once you get past the first 2, and you've got to question their ability to make a deep run simply on the basis of having not been tested lately (though by the eye test, they both have a ton of talent and obviously great coaching)
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Old 02-24-2014, 01:06 PM
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I heard an announcer say after LSU lost to Kentucky that the SEC would be a two bid conference. I couldn't agree more.
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Old 02-24-2014, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Dance Card is now updated with all games to date.
The bubble burst line is after 47.

UD at 43

Take a look at this pack

VCU 33
Cal 34
GW 35
St Joes 36
Gonzaga 38
Rich 45

Our best wins aren't that much above us now. We need to take care of our own business.

Go Flyers!
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I hope this guy is as good as he was the last two years. 7 - A10 teams, 2 - BE teams, and no Xavier.

I think it will finish with 6 A10 teams. One of Richmond, SJU, and Dayton will miss the cut. I do think people will be surprised, but there will only be 3 BE teams.

Last edited by UD90; 02-24-2014 at 01:11 PM.. Reason: spelling
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Old 02-24-2014, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I hope this guy is as good as he was the last two years. 7 - A10 teams, 2 - BE teams, and no Xavier.

I think it will finish with 6 A10 teams. One of Richmond, SJU, and Dayton will miss the cut. I do think people will be surprised, but there will only be 3 BE teams.
I think you are spot on. If Flyers take 2 of last 4 including beating Richmond they are in and Richmond is out. As for the BE, I think only one of X, GT, Providence and St. johns gets in.
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Old 02-24-2014, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
I think St. Louis only being a 4 seed is a joke when you look at the other 4 and 3 seeds. I don't get how he can have Michigan as a 3 seed ahead of SLU.

Agreed, but the A 10 hasn't been doing itself any favors in March recently. For instance, last year 5 seed VCU got absolutely destroyed by 4 seed Michigan in the second round. Watched the game. Not even remotely competitive. Also, 4 seed SLU got blown out in the second round by 12 seed Oregon. That really burned me because I had SLU going to the Final Four! LOL

I think the A 10 is probably going to have start making more noise in March (and April!) if it wants to earn a little more seeding respect. Just IMHO...
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Old 02-24-2014, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Agreed, but the A 10 hasn't been doing itself any favors in March recently. For instance, last year 5 seed VCU got absolutely destroyed by 4 seed Michigan in the second round. Watched the game. Not even remotely competitive. Also, 4 seed SLU got blown out in the second round by 12 seed Oregon. That really burned me because I had SLU going to the Final Four! LOL

I think the A 10 is probably going to have start making more noise in March (and April!) if it wants to earn a little more seeding respect. Just IMHO...
Last year LaSalle outperformed their seed. The year before SLU did too. Every year there are those that blow up good and those that blow up bad. SLUs problem with seeding this year is that they haven't beat anyone outside the A10 and the A10 has some good teams but not great ones. SLU lost to Wisconsin and Wichita St.
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Old 02-24-2014, 03:21 PM
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Seth Davis

IN SI.com:


The good news: Dayton is back in the bid biz with six straight wins. The bad news: Those wins came against the bottom teams in the Atlantic 10. But how's this for a finish: At Saint Joseph's, home vs. UMass, at Saint Louis, home vs. Richmond. Three out of four would just about do it -- which would mean six teams dancing from the Atlantic 10. Remember, the Flyers have a terrific nonconference record with neutral court wins over Gonzaga and Cal plus a road win at Ole Miss.


Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2uGynVcjv
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  #71  
Old 02-24-2014, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by westchesterflyer View Post
Flyers have a terrific nonconference record with neutral court wins over Gonzaga and Cal plus a road win at Ole Miss.
FWIW, USC's only PAC12 win this season came against Cal. Gonzaga is our only marquee win...so let's hope they're just warming up, too.
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Old 02-24-2014, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Last year LaSalle outperformed their seed. The year before SLU did too. Every year there are those that blow up good and those that blow up bad. Posted via Mobile Device

Eh, in 2012 SLU won the 8-9 game and then lost in the next round. Not exactly a memorable run. LaSalle's Sweet Sixteen run was certainly impressive, but when LaSalle is your conference's best performer, not sure that reflects well on the higher rated teams in the A 10.

Unfortunately, other than Xavier's Elite Eight run in 2008, the A 10 has pretty much been a non-factor in the NCAA tournament in recent years (VCU and Butler don't count because they were not in the A 10). I'm as impressed as anyone with the A 10 this year, but if the conference really wants to be mentioned in the same class as the other big conferences, A 10 teams are going to have to start beating these teams when it really counts: In March and April.
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Old 02-24-2014, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Eh, in 2012 SLU won the 8-9 game and then lost in the next round. Not exactly a memorable run. LaSalle's Sweet Sixteen run was certainly impressive, but when LaSalle is your conference's best performer, not sure that reflects well on the higher rated teams in the A 10.

Unfortunately, other than Xavier's Elite Eight run in 2008, the A 10 has pretty much been a non-factor in the NCAA tournament in recent years (VCU and Butler don't count because they were not in the A 10). I'm as impressed as anyone with the A 10 this year, but if the conference really wants to be mentioned in the same class as the other big conferences, A 10 teams are going to have to start beating these teams when it really counts: In March and April.
my memory was not that good or I really didn't think about it. I rmember SLU winning a game and then playing Mich St. tough in the next game but I guess that is not that impressive.
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Old 02-24-2014, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
my memory was not that good or I really didn't think about it. I rmember SLU winning a game and then playing Mich St. tough in the next game but I guess that is not that impressive.

They played MSU tough, but actually it is memorable to me for a different reason: It was Rick Majerus' last game. He was quite emotional after the game, too. Man, I really wanted SLU in that game....
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  #75  
Old 02-24-2014, 05:44 PM
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We are going to have to up the ante on the floor the last 4 games. But the good news is we have momentum with 3 Seniors doing what Seniors are expected to do. The table is set for us to control our own destiny. Or Not.

I have issues with the belief that the A10 can be a 6 bid league. Are our 5th and 6th teams better than some 3rd and 4th teams in other conferences when all the league tournament dust settles? Hmmm.

I think the A10 "lock" only goes to 4 before a myriad of other factors begin to intervene and significantly complicates things.
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Old 02-24-2014, 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Lindsey is out for the year, Richmond has a fresh, very talented, running thecshow
Of course they do, Richmond always seems to have top notch guards, especially point guards.

I still like our chances though with Lindsey out.
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Old 02-24-2014, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
We are going to have to up the ante on the floor the last 4 games. But the good news is we have momentum with 3 Seniors doing what Seniors are expected to do. The table is set for us to control our own destiny. Or Not.

I have issues with the belief that the A10 can be a 6 bid league. Are our 5th and 6th teams better than some 3rd and 4th teams in other conferences when all the league tournament dust settles? Hmmm.

I think the A10 "lock" only goes to 4 before a myriad of other factors begin to intervene and significantly complicates things.
I agree with you that the only lock the A10 has is 4 teams. I think that 5 bids is going to be the magic number. SLU, VCU, UMASS, and GW, barring a total meltdown, are your 4 locks. The 5th bid is going to be either St. Joes, Richmond, or UD. Right now St. Joes has the upper hand, that's why tomorrow is the biggest game of our remaining 4 IMO. A loss is only going to further solidify St. Joes into the tourney as the A10's 5th team. A win however should lift the Flyers into the tournament for the time being.

Including Brooklyn, 4 wins is the magic number for a lock. 3 wins and you are sweating it out and at the mercy of other bubble teams. 2 wins = NIT.
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Old 02-24-2014, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
....

Including Brooklyn, 4 wins is the magic number for a lock. 3 wins and you are sweating it out and at the mercy of other bubble teams. 2 wins = NIT.
I agree and I said it a while back "23" is the lock number no matter how you get there.

I really believe the A10 gets 6 teams this year. The SEC gets 2 teams and the Big East gets 3 teams. Quote me later.
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Old 02-24-2014, 08:00 PM
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USA Today has 6 A-10 teams at this point (with seeds): St. Louis (4), UMass (7), VCU (8), GW (9), St. Joseph (10), Richmont (11).

Last 5 in: Providence, Xavier, BYU, Minnesota, Oklahoma State

First 5 out: Oregon, Georgetown, Southern Mississippi, St. Johns, Tennessee

Others considered: West Virginia, Arkansas, LSU, Florida State, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Dayton

The biggest news here isn't whether UD is in or out. We can determine that by winning 3 of 4. Showing 6 from A10 (even with the defections to the BE) is encouraging.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:28 PM
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Originally Posted by westchesterflyer View Post
IN SI.com:


The good news: Dayton is back in the bid biz with six straight wins. The bad news: Those wins came against the bottom teams in the Atlantic 10. But how's this for a finish: At Saint Joseph's, home vs. UMass, at Saint Louis, home vs. Richmond. Three out of four would just about do it -- which would mean six teams dancing from the Atlantic 10. Remember, the Flyers have a terrific nonconference record with neutral court wins over Gonzaga and Cal plus a road win at Ole Miss.


Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2uGynVcjv
Those 6 wins, 1 top 50 and 2 top 100. So 3 top 100 wins out of the last 6. To put that in perspective, Southern Miss. has 4 top 100 wins all season!
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 79 View Post
USA Today has 6 A-10 teams at this point (with seeds): St. Louis (4), UMass (7), VCU (8), GW (9), St. Joseph (10), Richmont (11).

Last 5 in: Providence, Xavier, BYU, Minnesota, Oklahoma State

First 5 out: Oregon, Georgetown, Southern Mississippi, St. Johns, Tennessee

Others considered: West Virginia, Arkansas, LSU, Florida State, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Dayton

The biggest news here isn't whether UD is in or out. We can determine that by winning 3 of 4. Showing 6 from A10 (even with the defections to the BE) is encouraging.
What are these people looking at except for RPI.

S.Miss. = RPI 35, top 50 1-1 (with N. Dakota St. as win); 3-1 51-100 all home wins; 101+ = 17-3. 10-5 Road/Neutral, but after at N. Dakota St. who is #44, S. Miss' best away/neutral win is at #147 Depaul?!!? So their big wins #44 N. Dakota St. (away), #81 La. Tech (home), #87 UTEP (home), and #92 Georgia St. (home). Are you kidding me. Dance Card has them 54, 11 behind Dayton; kenpom has them 68, 14 behind Dayton. I could go on and on and on.
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Old 02-25-2014, 03:26 AM
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and I say this with a grain of salt

This might be the most encouraging forecast I've seen yet:
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 02-25-2014, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
This might be the most encouraging forecast I've seen yet:
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
And historically the most accurate...
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Old 02-25-2014, 08:48 AM
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Another article about the A10 sending up to 7 teams to the NCAA tourney.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ncaas/5773645/

My gut feeling is that the A10 will send 5 teams. With A10 bubble teams playing each other (and thus someone has to lose), at least 2 team's bubbles will burst.
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Old 02-25-2014, 08:49 AM
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we will have a better idea in 4 games.
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Old 02-25-2014, 09:52 AM
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I posted a list of the historical number of A-10 bids since 2000 related to the Out of Conference winning percentage. I honestly don't see how the A-10 gets less than 5 bids this season, but also don't see it getting 7. 6 would be a stretch, but could happen.

http://www.udpride.com/forums/showpo...0&postcount=23
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Old 02-25-2014, 09:41 PM
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Time to close this thread. Does anybody really care that much how many A-10 teams make it when we aren't one of them? Hard to accept the it's good for the conference argument when we aren't in the discussion anymore.

Last edited by jumpin' joe; 02-25-2014 at 09:44 PM..
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Old 02-26-2014, 08:27 AM
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IMHO, we still should be pulling for the A-10 to be well represented (and do well) in the Tournament, regardless of our particular position within the league. Being part of a highly competitive Conference with solid, well regarded programs helps in recruiting and it also helps financially, since Conference participants all receive a share of the spoils generated by the Tourney. While last night's debacle in Philly may not have been the final nail in our coffin for this year's Tourney (miracles can still happen), knowing we have that type of game in us, I'm not sure I'd want to see UD in the Dance only to be "blow'd-out" and made to look like a laughing stock on National television.
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Old 02-27-2014, 11:48 AM
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I know most people don't want to talk about this or even think we have a chance but the fact of the matter is that we are still in this. Lunardi's newest bracketology has us in the Next Four Out: Nebraska, Richmond, Dayton, Southern Miss, making us the 7th team out right now. Ahead of us in the First Four Out: Florida State, Oregon, Missouri, Gtown. It really irritates me that Missouri and Gtown are still ahead of, and FSU and Tennessee (who is an 11 seed) is even worse. We need to rooting against these teams HARD because realistically the best we can hope for is finishing 2-1 in our last three, the two home games. However, going into Brooklyn that record is still probably going to have us on the outside looking in depending on how these teams ahead of us finish. Regardless, I think if we win 2 in Brooklyn we jump all of them no matter what, 1 win and we are at the mercy of their final record.
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Old 02-27-2014, 11:52 AM
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Jerry Palm still has us as the 2nd out which I think is realistic as other bubble teams lost yesterday as well.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Can we break the history of being on the wrong side of the bubble?
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:00 PM
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UD

does not pass the eye test in conference play. With three games remaining against two better teams the prognosis is not good.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:02 PM
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There is no "eye" test, and I'm not sure what the heck that even means. Does Georgetown pass an eye test losing at home to Seton Hall? Bottom line is win Saturday and put yourself in a position. Gives the Flyers 4 top 50 wins.
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Old 02-27-2014, 02:04 PM
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Xavier got waxed at Georgetown (who isn't as good as SJU) and they are still in it with a worse resume than ours.

My concern is more that I don't understand how we let SJU get so many 10 inch layups in the game. Clearly there was a breakdown and it worries me with the UMASS big men.
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Old 02-27-2014, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Xavier got waxed at Georgetown (who isn't as good as SJU) and they are still in it with a worse resume than ours.

My concern is more that I don't understand how we let SJU get so many 10 inch layups in the game. Clearly there was a breakdown and it worries me with the UMASS big men.
How is their resume worse than ours?

RPI 40 (vs 56), SOS - 40 (vs 74), Record 18-9 (vs 19-9),
Top 50 - 1-3 (vs 3-5), Road/Away - 5-8 (vs 8-5)

Our road/away record is better, our Top 50 is marginally better (for now), but we are seriously worse at RPI and SOS. Records are a wash.

Given those stats in a blind setting, I probably go with the better SOS/RPI.
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Old 02-27-2014, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
There is no "eye" test, and I'm not sure what the heck that even means. Does Georgetown pass an eye test losing at home to Seton Hall? Bottom line is win Saturday and put yourself in a position. Gives the Flyers 4 top 50 wins.
There absolutely is an "eye test". While it has no metrics or specific criteria, you know it when you "see" it or, better yet, don't "see" it. Similar to Justice Potter Stewart's famous response defining pornography - "I know it when I see it."

Unfortunately, being objective and having seen he Flyers play 15+ times this year, they don't have it. We don't pass the eye or the smell test.

Sure, opportunities to reverse our apparent fate remain right in front of us, but I have seen nothing from this team/program/coaching staff that indicates the next three games will produce anything but the same results. We'll lose a heartbreaker to UMass, get shown the door at Chaifetz and probably lose at home to Richmond who will still have something to play for. I am not wishing this upon our beloved Flyers. It's just that, we are who we are come late February. We're not all of sudden going to figure out how to stop dribble penetration or close out on a shooter effectively. We're probably not going to hold NCAA Tournament teams to less than 42% FG, which will be needed to win. We won't play 40 minutes without having critical stretches where we take some really bad shots and make some really bad decisions.

Against good competition, any one of these things will come to bite us in the arse, and maybe even all of them:

Poor defense, frontline inability to finish, poor shot selection, poor basketball IQ, coaching mistakes/unprepared.
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Old 02-27-2014, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
How is their resume worse than ours?

RPI 40 (vs 56), SOS - 40 (vs 74), Record 18-9 (vs 19-9),
Top 50 - 1-3 (vs 3-5), Road/Away - 5-8 (vs 8-5)

Our road/away record is better, our Top 50 is marginally better (for now), but we are seriously worse at RPI and SOS. Records are a wash.

Given those stats in a blind setting, I probably go with the better SOS/RPI.
Having 3x as many top 50 wins is "marginally" better? That's a good one. Actually we are much stronger in the win column than x. But we are worse in the bad loss column. We are much better in the road/neutral games metric. If good wins are the stronger metric then UD is stronger.
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Old 02-27-2014, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Having 3x as many top 50 wins is "marginally" better? That's a good one. Actually we are much stronger in the win column than x. But we are worse in the bad loss column. We are much better in the road/neutral games metric. If good wins are the stronger metric then UD is stronger.
If UD and X theoretically played each other this year, then IF the good/right UD team showed up, then UD would win, UD would perhaps win in a blowout. If the bad/wrong UD team showed up though, then UD would lose, UD would perhaps get blown out.

It would all depend on which UD team would show up.

Last edited by ud2; 02-27-2014 at 03:49 PM..
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Old 02-27-2014, 03:58 PM
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Even after that beatdown on Tuesday I truly do believe the Flyers will win Saturday. A win against projected six seed Umass should vault UD up into the first four out, probably pretty close to the cut off line of last four in. Obviously we can count the next game at SLU as a loss, losing on the road to a top 10 team obviously won't hurt us, I just hope that it keeps us in a position to where the Richmond game can be for all the marbles, and a win should put us in the last four in before heading to Brooklyn, where 2 wins should lock us up.

Regardless, none of this speculation matters, it's just something to keep me busy before the next game. Fact of the matter is that no one knows what will happen with the Flyers or the other bubble teams. We could pull the improbable and win out, then find ourselves speculating what seed we will get. Or we could lose out and wonder who we will face in the NIT. All that matters is the next game on the schedule and I firmly believe that The Flyers will take care of business Saturday and get us back into the mix. BEAT UMASS!!
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Old 02-27-2014, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
How is their resume worse than ours?

RPI 40 (vs 56), SOS - 40 (vs 74), Record 18-9 (vs 19-9),
Top 50 - 1-3 (vs 3-5), Road/Away - 5-8 (vs 8-5)

Our road/away record is better, our Top 50 is marginally better (for now), but we are seriously worse at RPI and SOS. Records are a wash.

Given those stats in a blind setting, I probably go with the better SOS/RPI.
If it was ONLY your RPI that mattered.. It's who you played and who you beat.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../DAYTON/XAVIER

Last edited by UD90; 02-27-2014 at 04:06 PM..
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Old 02-27-2014, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
If it was your RPI that mattered.. It's who you played and who you beat.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../DAYTON/XAVIER
And where you played them. That's why road/neutral record is important.
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