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  #501  
Old 03-14-2014, 05:41 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
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Originally Posted by JimBo View Post
A lot can happen in the next two days. I doubt there is a single soul in Flyer Nation who won't be sweating it out on Sunday.
Not really. The only thing at this point is if a sleeper in a multi bid conference steals a bid. Odds are 1 maybe 2 at most will happen.
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  #502  
Old 03-14-2014, 06:33 PM
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I'm one of those that believe we are in, and have been for the past week. That being said, Lunardi's updated Last Four in are as follows: Nebraska, UD, BYU, Providence. Next Four Out are: Minnesota, Southern Miss, FSU, Arkansas. The good news, FSU, Arkansas, and BYU are all done and will not pass us up. We need Providence and Minnesota to go down tonight. (No way Southern Miss passes us). Minnesota SHOULD get beat by Wisconsin, Providence is a toss up against Seton Hall. However, even if they both win, we should still be in the last four in and only drop two spots.

Point is....we are fine. We have been saying for weeks that 23 wins and no more bad losses makes us a lock, well here we are. We have been taking Lunardi with a grain of salt, so even if you do go by what he says we are still in unless there is an abnormal number of bids stolen. I think we are firmly in as a 10 or 11 seed, and the worst thing that can happen is we drop to the First Four with stolen bids
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  #503  
Old 03-14-2014, 06:38 PM
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My Christmas wish, 9 plus months early

Is to never hear the name Lunardi again. The guy is a fool, many other much more reputable sources online if you want to see who should and should not be dancing along with our Flyers.
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  #504  
Old 03-14-2014, 06:38 PM
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Too much experience with things not going our way will keep the angst in Flyer land high until our name is called.
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  #505  
Old 03-14-2014, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
I'm one of those that believe we are in, and have been for the past week. That being said, Lunardi's updated Last Four in are as follows: Nebraska, UD, BYU, Providence. Next Four Out are: Minnesota, Southern Miss, FSU, Arkansas. The good news, FSU, Arkansas, and BYU are all done and will not pass us up. We need Providence and Minnesota to go down tonight. (No way Southern Miss passes us). Minnesota SHOULD get beat by Wisconsin, Providence is a toss up against Seton Hall. However, even if they both win, we should still be in the last four in and only drop two spots.

Point is....we are fine. We have been saying for weeks that 23 wins and no more bad losses makes us a lock, well here we are. We have been taking Lunardi with a grain of salt, so even if you do go by what he says we are still in unless there is an abnormal number of bids stolen. I think we are firmly in as a 10 or 11 seed, and the worst thing that can happen is we drop to the First Four with stolen bids
I agree with pretty much everything you stated, but I think people will be surprised by our seed. We are in better shape than many on here realize.
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  #506  
Old 03-14-2014, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by DetroitFlyer View Post
Too much experience with things not going our way will keep the angst in Flyer land high until our name is called.
Like when? Any time we haven't gotten in we deserved not to get in. The only close call was Wright's freshman year, but we collapsed at the end of the season and Wright was hurt.
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  #507  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:00 PM
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If you think they are fine with UD being one of the teams playing at UD... WRONG! It's move us up or leave us out. I'm afraid of the latter.
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  #508  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Falcon7 View Post
If you think they are fine with UD being one of the teams playing at UD... WRONG! It's move us up or leave us out. I'm afraid of the latter.
They won't be playing at the Arena. They will be seeded higher than that.
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  #509  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:14 PM
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There are 4 12 seeds only 2 of which are determined by a play in game so UD should be no worse than one of the other 12s
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  #510  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I agree with pretty much everything you stated, but I think people will be surprised by our seed. We are in better shape than many on here realize.
Lunardi is a hack!

Worse case we play in Dayton.
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  #511  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
They won't be playing at the Arena. They will be seeded higher than that.
Hope your right, and that's how it should be... but...
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  #512  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
There are 4 12 seeds only 2 of which are determined by a play in game so UD should be no worse than one of the other 12s
Actually there are five 12-seeds (and five 11-seeds), and two of each will meet in the play-in games.
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  #513  
Old 03-14-2014, 07:59 PM
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Actually, nobody knows how many of each there will be. It will be the last 4 at-large selections. It depends on how many conference winners get seeds higher than the at-large selections. Unlikely, but it could end up being 10s and 13s if a bunch of the conference winners are would-be bubble teams who don't end up getting much higher seeds but are suddenly ineligible for the play-in games.
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  #514  
Old 03-14-2014, 08:06 PM
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Wisconsin up 13 on Minnesota with 8 minutes to go. I have never been such a big Badgers fan...

UPDATE: Ok, Minnesota is getting crushed. They are mercifully done, although with Rick Pitino the Younger at the helm, I'm sure they can pull some strings haha...

Last edited by FlyerGuyer; 03-14-2014 at 08:23 PM..
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  #515  
Old 03-14-2014, 08:46 PM
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Minnesota is done.
Richmond is done.

Houston is all but done (down 20+). Assume that happens.

So even the pessimists can rest easy as long as any 4 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State and Clemson both lose in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Seton Hall and Providence both lose in the Big East
* Northwestern loses in the Big Ten
* UNLV and Boise St both lose in the MWC
* LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia all lose in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 4 of the above happen.
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  #516  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:15 PM
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welp nc state just beat syracuse...
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  #517  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:18 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerFanatic08 View Post
welp nc state just beat syracuse...
I hate rooting for Duke. Ugh.
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  #518  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Minnesota is done.
Richmond is done.

Houston is all but done (down 20+). Assume that happens.

So even the pessimists can rest easy as long as any 4 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State and Clemson both lose in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Seton Hall and Providence both lose in the Big East
* Northwestern loses in the Big Ten
* UNLV and Boise St both lose in the MWC
* LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia all lose in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 4 of the above happen.
Now that Prov has beat SH, I believe BYU, Providence, Tenn, & X are all arguably ahead of UD even if they lose their next game. I see Dayton as last team in right now. We need all of the above to happen for Dayton to squeak in.
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  #519  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:32 PM
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FWIW, Southern Miss just lost, which means that all 8 teams in the First Four Out and Next Four Out have lost and will not be jumping ahead of Dayton. Providence is the only team left behind us the Last Four In that is still alive, assuming they jump us after their win today, that would shift the Last Four In to look something like: Providence, Nebraska, Dayton, BYU.

So that means our only concern is going to be a conference tournament bid stealer. Unless the committee decides that Dayton is ahead of Nebraska and Providence (hopefully Creighton takes care of them), then it's looking like two stolen bids could force us out.

This is all according to Lunardi, however, if you go by many other websites we shouldn't have any worries. Buckle up.
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  #520  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:36 PM
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BYU being ahead of us was already taken into consideration in my counting. (Even though I don't think they are.)

Tennessee has the virtually the same RPI, fewer top 25, top 50, and top 100 wins. A worse record versus the top 25, top 50, and top 100. And a worse road/neutral record. And more bad losses. Their whole resume hinges on one game against UVA on December 30. Today they're still clearly behind us. They might have a bid right now, but not above us. They need Florida.

Repeat that exact paragraph for Providence almost exactly. Change "UVA on December 30" to "Creighton on January 18". And they have only 1 bad loss. But they have a worse RPI. I guess you could argue that they're ahead of us, but it's a weak argument.

Xavier has a stronger argument than the other two with two good wins better than any of ours: Cincinnati and Creighton. But we have four wins that are all better than their third best win (Tennessee). Same number of bad losses. We're better away from home. I guess you could call it a tossup, but I think we're still ahead of them. If it makes you feel better, root for 5 of the above to happen.
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  #521  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
Now that Prov has beat SH, I believe BYU, Providence, Tenn, & X are all arguably ahead of UD even if they lose their next game. I see Dayton as last team in right now. We need all of the above to happen for Dayton to squeak in.
I don't think it's even close - according to dance card, #30 UD lost to #37 SJ and #51 Providence beat #98 SH - don't think this results in Providence jumping over UD

Last edited by NCkevi; 03-14-2014 at 09:58 PM..
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  #522  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
Now that Prov has beat SH, I believe BYU, Providence, Tenn, & X are all arguably ahead of UD even if they lose their next game. I see Dayton as last team in right now. We need all of the above to happen for Dayton to squeak in.
Based on what? These teams aren't close ro the Flyers on resume.
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  #523  
Old 03-14-2014, 09:52 PM
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Seton Hall loses.
LSU loses.
Northwestern is down 18 at halftime. Assume that loss happens. (Yes, I'm counting this chicken early.)


So we need to see any 3 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State and Clemson both lose in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Providence loses to the Creighton/Xavier winner in the Big East
* UNLV and Boise St both lose in the MWC
* Winner of Ole Miss/Georgia loses in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 3 of the above happen.
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  #524  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:09 PM
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Come on Duke, beat Clemson.
Come on Creighton, beat Xaiver.
Come on Baylor, beat Texas (we need them to win the Big 12)
Come on Ole Miss, beat Georgia (don't want them climbing the bubble and Ole Miss making a mini-run would be good).
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  #525  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Seton Hall loses.
LSU loses.
Northwestern is down 18 at halftime. Assume that loss happens. (Yes, I'm counting this chicken early.)


So we need to see any 3 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State and Clemson both lose in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Providence loses to the Creighton/Xavier winner in the Big East
* UNLV and Boise St both lose in the MWC
* Winner of Ole Miss/Georgia loses in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 3 of the above happen.
Keep posting. This is doing more for reducing my blood pressure than the meds are right now.
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  #526  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Based on what? These teams aren't close ro the Flyers on resume.
1) Based on Bracket Matrix

2) Based on Sagarin - Tenn (28), Xavier (41), BYU (45), Prov (50) are all ahead of Dayton (56) before Dayton lost and Tenn and Providence won.

3) Based on RPI Tenn (42), Xavier (44), BYU (32), Prov (51) and expected to rise to 44.8 w/ loss in BE final compare to Dayton (45)

Why do you think these team's aren't close to Dayton?
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  #527  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
1) Based on Bracket Matrix

2) Based on Sagarin - Tenn (28), Xavier (41), BYU (45), Prov (50) are all ahead of Dayton (56) before Dayton lost and Tenn and Providence won.

3) Based on RPI Tenn (42), Xavier (44), BYU (32), Prov (51) and expected to rise to 44.8 w/ loss in BE final compare to Dayton (45)

Why do you think these team's aren't close to Dayton?
Look at Dancecard. These guys have studied the committee for 20 years and have found what key netrics are used and Sagarin isn't one of them. Now let's look at the key criteria. Top 25 wins- Flyers have 3. Flyers have 4 top 30 wins. Flyers are 10-6 vs top 100. And maybe the most important is road wins, particularly against top teams. The Flyers are 7-4 on the road and 3-2 neutral and 2 of those wins are against top 20 teams. None of these other teams come close.
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  #528  
Old 03-14-2014, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
1) Based on Bracket Matrix

2) Based on Sagarin - Tenn (28), Xavier (41), BYU (45), Prov (50) are all ahead of Dayton (56) before Dayton lost and Tenn and Providence won.

3) Based on RPI Tenn (42), Xavier (44), BYU (32), Prov (51) and expected to rise to 44.8 w/ loss in BE final compare to Dayton (45)

Why do you think these team's aren't close to Dayton?
Find any bubble team with 2 of the following 4:
(1) 4-6 top 50;
(2) 10-7 top 100;
(3) 10-6 road/neutral;
(4) 5 of top 100 wins are road/neutral (2 of top 25 and 3 51-100).

Yes, I get we have 3 bad losses, but most bubble teams have 2-4 bad losses. Nobody has our resume on the bubble objectively. Dance card confirms this. I would have the debate with any talking head and crush them on Dayton vs. SMU, Cal, Xavier, Minn., Providence, BYU, Neb., Iowa, Tenn., Missouri, Arkansas, Pitt, etc. -- Find one of those teams that are equal to or better than Dayton in just 2 of the 4 categories above.
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
1) Based on Bracket Matrix

2) Based on Sagarin - Tenn (28), Xavier (41), BYU (45), Prov (50) are all ahead of Dayton (56) before Dayton lost and Tenn and Providence won.

3) Based on RPI Tenn (42), Xavier (44), BYU (32), Prov (51) and expected to rise to 44.8 w/ loss in BE final compare to Dayton (45)

Why do you think these team's aren't close to Dayton?
“We look at everything,” Wellman said. “It’s not just the RPI (and) Ken Pomeroy — we look at BPI (ESPN's Basketball Power Index), we look at every available piece of data that we can put our hands on, and we track that data as well. We compare data to data to see where the discrepancies are, and different committee members use that data in varying ways. Some of them probably really study it thoroughly, and others may just glance at it.”

http://www.news-record.com/sports/ac....html?mode=jqm
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:41 PM
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We aren't so high on Sagarin/Pomeroy because they take margin into account. Too many close games against bad teams. But that is not taken into consideration by the committee. Look at Sagarin's ELO - the version that ignores margin of victory. We do well there.
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:45 PM
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Nice article on the selection process. BTW, Wellman was raised in Dayton. Thought it was interesting that he emphasized that the conferemce tourneys really don't hold that much weight. Just 1 or 2 games out of 30+. He also, emphasized the old saying of- who'd you play, did you beat them and where did you play. In other words beating good teams away from home is very highly considered. So when assessing teams look at road/neutral records and who did they play in those games. Fortunately UD is very strong in this regard.
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:48 PM
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Now that UD has no more regular season games left it is time to look at their resume to compare it to other teams similar to theirs. Earlier in the week I said let's accept the fact we are on the bubble and go out as the A10 tournament champs so there is no question UD is on the right or wrong side of the bubble. Looking at similar resumes, UD has at least a better one than a few on the good side of the bubble with no games remaining. At best UD will end up in the field as a low 10 / high 11 seed. (no first 4 game for UD) This won't relieve my concern until UD's name is called but I believe their comfortably in with few exceptions that would bump them to the Out side of the line.
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Larymike View Post
Now that UD has no more regular season games left it is time to look at their resume to compare it to other teams similar to theirs. Earlier in the week I said let's accept the fact we are on the bubble and go out as the A10 tournament champs so there is no question UD is on the right or wrong side of the bubble. Looking at similar resumes, UD has at least a better one than a few on the good side of the bubble with no games remaining. At best UD will end up in the field as a low 10 / high 11 seed. (no first 4 game for UD) This won't relieve my concern until UD's name is called but I believe their comfortably in with few exceptions that would bump them to the Out side of the line.
Agreed. I think 10 seed is likely, which beats a 9 seed imo.
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Old 03-14-2014, 11:24 PM
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My take, we're in, and have been since we finished the season. Archie eluded to that fact a week ago. There is talk of teams already picked as of Friday. Now is a matter of placement and seed. What worries me is our seeding now. First four would be a slap in the face. If we're higher than a 12, not good. Please tell me why George Washington continues to be a non subject. We would kill them right now.

Wait and see. We know this (unfortunately)
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Old 03-14-2014, 11:37 PM
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Clemson loses.
UNLV loses.
Creighton leading X by 12, but not enough to call it.

We need to see any 3 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State loses in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Providence loses to the Creighton/Xavier winner in the Big East
* Boise St loses in the MWC
* Winner of Ole Miss/Georgia loses in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 3 of the above happen. If they all happen, there's really not even a chance of us being in the First Four.

(Even if they do all happen, I think we're still in, but this list is for the pessimists.)
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Old 03-14-2014, 11:40 PM
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Creighton up 19 with 808 left and Xavier goes on 10-0 run to be down 10 519 left ...

Doug M. hasn't shot it since like 900 -- come on.
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Old 03-14-2014, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerinChicago View Post
My take, we're in, and have been since we finished the season. Archie eluded to that fact a week ago. There is talk of teams already picked as of Friday. Now is a matter of placement and seed. What worries me is our seeding now. First four would be a slap in the face. If we're higher than a 12, not good. Please tell me why George Washington continues to be a non subject. We would kill them right now.

Wait and see. We know this (unfortunately)
Yes. The way the selection process works, the first couple of days are all about selecting the best at-large teams. This has already been done. Then as conference champs are crowned another team is added. The last couple of days are pretty much all about seeding and placement. The Flyers have already been selected.
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Old 03-14-2014, 11:56 PM
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  #539  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:05 AM
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:08 AM
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X loses.

We need to see any 2 of these things happen:
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State loses in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Providence loses to the Creighton/Xavier winner in the Big East
* Boise St loses in the MWC
* Georgia loses in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 2 of the above happen. If they all happen, there's really not even a chance of us being in the First Four.

(Even if they do all happen, I think we're still in, but this list is for the pessimists.)
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  #541  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Minnesota is done.
Richmond is done.

Houston is all but done (down 20+). Assume that happens.

So even the pessimists can rest easy as long as any 4 of these things happen:
* Creighton beats Xavier (YAY!)
* Florida beats Tennessee (We'll see...)
* NC State (RATS!) and Clemson (YAY!) both lose in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10 (We'll see...)
* Seton Hall (YAY!) and Providence (We'll see...) both lose in the Big East
* Northwestern loses in the Big Ten (YAY!)
* UNLV (YAY!) and Boise St (We'll see...) both lose in the MWC
* LSU (YAY!), Ole Miss (YAY!), and Georgia (We'll see...) all lose in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as 4 of the above happen.
Please see my notes above, in parentheses.
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:08 AM
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X falls, that's a shame...
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:08 AM
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buh bye X
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  #544  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:10 AM
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They're almost certainly still going to be in the tournament, but they're more likely to be in the First Four than we are.
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:17 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
They're almost certainly still going to be in the tournament, but they're more likely to be in the First Four than we are.
Yes, as a resume they are right on the cut line. Only have 2 top 25 wins and 3 top 50 and have a losing road and neutral record which isn't a good thing.
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:19 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Yes, as a resume they are right on the cut line. Only have 2 top 25 wins and 3 top 50 and have a losing road and neutral record which isn't a good thing.
True, but one of their top 25 wins is really strong: Creighton. Of course they now have 2 Creighton defeats to go with their one victory.
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:23 AM
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And please stop with the bonnies talk. They wont win this tournament. I mean come on!
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:46 AM
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Ugh, this means I have to root for Duke and St. Joes tomorrow

almost as bad as having to root for M*ch*gan and A&M in football
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:59 AM
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All in all tonight went extremely well for us. There are virtually no teams left behind us still in play that will jump ahead. A lot of potential bid stealers were eliminated as well.
The Bonnies won't win the A10.
Florida has been rolling over everyone and will win the SEC and hopefully Kentuck just beats Georgia so there's no chance for a stolen bid.
NC State is still a long shot in the ACC, let's hope for a Duke and Virginia championship.
No teams left to steal a bid in the AAC, Big10, Big12, or Pac12.
Boise St is losing to New Mexico in the second half, Boise is the MWC's last chance at a stolen bid.
Creighton will take care of business tomorrow, even if they don't, Providence is probably in but worse case scenerio they jump up a spot or two, won't hurt us.

Last edited by UDFlyer23; 03-15-2014 at 01:02 AM..
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:04 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerinChicago View Post
And please stop with the bonnies talk. They wont win this tournament. I mean come on!
Correct, but there really isn't much difference between an RPI 10 and an RPI 15, and our SLU win was a road win. Most of the analytics have x about 6-8 slots below us. I think their poor road/neutral record really hurts them.
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:10 AM
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Boise State loses by the same 70-67 score as Dayton does. That game was very entertaining and reminded me a lot of UD/SJU today. 2 exciting games.

Remaining bid stealers:
Bonnies
Providence (possibly in already but behind UD)
NC State
Pitt (can't imagine they aren't already in but their resume has been debated on here)
Georgia
Tennessee (2 spots ahead of Dayton per Looneynardi, behind Dayton or out in other brackets)
Tulsa (if somehow La Tech is up for an at-large still)
W Michigan (faces Toledo in MAC Final; Toledo has better RPI than Flyers

Any others?
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:19 AM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
Boise State loses by the same 70-67 score as Dayton does. That game was very entertaining and reminded me a lot of UD/SJU today. 2 exciting games.

Remaining bid stealers:
Bonnies
Providence (possibly in already but behind UD)
NC State
Pitt (can't imagine they aren't already in but their resume has been debated on here)
Georgia
Tennessee (2 spots ahead of Dayton per Looneynardi, behind Dayton or out in other brackets)
Tulsa (if somehow La Tech is up for an at-large still)
W Michigan (faces Toledo in MAC Final; Toledo has better RPI than Flyers

Any others?

I posted much the same in the Games of Note thread . . .

If Western Michigan beats Toledo, that bad loss would knock Toledo off the bubble. The MAC is a one bid league - same is true of C-USA.

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Old 03-15-2014, 06:21 AM
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Worse case we play in Dayton.[/QUOTE]

I like this CBS Sports analyst's take on it:

http://m.cbssports.com/s/36900/93?arenaAbbr=ncaab&arenaName=&articleId=24483925&t eamAbbr=DAYTON&teamId=21138&newsType=team&platform =webapp

"We should question where, not if, Dayton gets in the field"
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  #554  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
99% certain Lunardi will drop us to First 4 Out after the loss, because that's what he does.

I don't know if this was already posted, but both Lunardi and Palm have UD in, I think UD is in. Both of those guys have 6 A10 teams and 4 BE teams getting in. Both guys have Providence in the First Four.

Lunardi has UD as the safest/best ranked team among his last four in, so Lunardi has UD as an 11 playing in Dayton.

Palm has UD as an 11 not playing in Dayton.

It will be interesting to see how accurate these 2 guys are.

And BTW, what happened to Palm saying a couple/few days ago that UD needed to beat SJU to get in? UD lost to SJU, yet Palm still has UD in.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Last edited by ud2; 03-15-2014 at 12:20 PM..
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  #555  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:18 PM
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Actually, Lunardi is starting to play some games. Last night he had the Flyers as the third to last team in and this morning, without any games played moved us up one slot. Most reputable sites have the Flyers in the 9-10 seed range.
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  #556  
Old 03-15-2014, 12:20 PM
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Palm didn't say UD had to beat St. Joes. He just said if they didn't they were leaving up to upsets and the committee. Palm has UD a 11 seed as
well. How about a Dayton vs Xavier first four matchup
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:22 PM
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I think that it's very important to remember that they're all just guessing. Lunardi, Palm and everyone else who does this is not an extension of the committee.

I always get a huge kick when people don't understand that, and one or both of them badly misses on a team.

"We were a #8 seed last week. How did we drop all the way from an #8 seed to being out!!??!?!"

Ummm, you never were a #8 seed. Lunardi was just guessing that you were, and he guessed wrong.
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:27 PM
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Said last week that if we lost in the quarters, it would be 50-50 if we'd make the tourney. Well, that's where we are.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Furio View Post
Palm didn't say UD had to beat St. Joes. He just said if they didn't they were leaving up to upsets and the committee. Palm has UD a 11 seed as
well. How about a Dayton vs Xavier first four matchup
Are you 100% sure about that?

TA111 I believe was the poster that posted Palm's tweet, I'll have to find TA111's post, but I thought that Palm was asked something like whether UD had to win 2 A10 tourney games to make the dance, and Palm responded something like "at least".

Last edited by ud2; 03-15-2014 at 12:30 PM..
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:34 PM
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[QUOTE=ud2;347832]Are you 100% sure about that?

I'm going on the article in the DDN in which Palm was quoted not just a tweet.
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
Said last week that if we lost in the quarters, it would be 50-50 if we'd make the tourney. Well, that's where we are.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
I question the math behind this. This states that we still have chances for a 4, 5, 6, or 7 seed. That aint gonna happen. Not sure what formulas they are using, but the highest we get is a 10 and lowest is a 12. This also shows we have a chance to be a 13 or 14, which also wont happen.

Given that, I think we can toss this site aside.
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:45 PM
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List for the pessimists...

We need to see any 1 of these things happen:
* Florida beats Tennessee
* NC State loses in the ACC
* St Bonaventure loses in the A10
* Providence loses to the Creighton/Xavier winner in the Big East
* Georgia loses in the SEC

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to every team where there's a debate about us versus them, we're in as long as any 1 of the above happen. If they all happen, there's really not even a chance of us being in the First Four.

(Even if they do all happen, I think we're still in, but this list is for the pessimists.)
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:22 PM
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Xavier has been 1-3 since they lost their big man. Shouldn't they be left out based on the 'Chris wright' precedent? I mean, they're not the same team without him. And he's not coming back, so none of the good parts of their résumé should be considered anymore.

I'm only half joking.
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:26 PM
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Stainbrook played against Marq and im assuming last night (didnt watch)
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:26 PM
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Stainbrook played limited minutes in NBE tourney...he's back.

X lost to Creighton last night.
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:28 PM
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Stain also picked up some weight while he was out. His conditioning is a major issue and he had a LOT of trouble on D last night.
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:17 PM
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Pitt and Tenn. lose. St. Bonnie's losing :-)
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:25 PM
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This is a strange conference year where it looks like there might not be any bid thiefs. Usually there is one or two, but only Georgia and NC st have that chance now and that is very unlikely.
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:26 PM
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St Bonnie down 16, 3 1/2 minutes left.
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:41 PM
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Bonnies go down... we are in good shape.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:05 PM
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We have been very lucky the past two days. Even if NC State and Georgia win their conference tournaments, that bumps the final two teams in the tournament out, which we are no where close to. Georgia isn't winning the SEC, hopefully Kentucky bets them tonight and that'll be the end of that. Duke up on NC State right now, it would be nice if they held on to that one too. We should also root for Creighton for seeding purposes, Providence is behind us right now so if they win it could bump us a spot or two, not the end of the world, but I want a 10 seed.
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Old 03-15-2014, 05:42 PM
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NC State goes down, and UK is up big on Georgia with only a few minutes left. Once that games final then there will officially be no more potential bid stealers left and not one stolen bid this year in terms of a team winning their conference tourney that wasn't an at large. Everything fell into place for the Flyers, we are solidly in the tournament.

The last game left to keep an eye on is Creighton/Providence. Hopefully Creighton wins and that keeps Providence behind us, most likely relegating them to the play in games in Dayton. Even if Providence does win they were already in the field as it is so it won't change a thing, they would only move up a few spots.

Everyone take a deep breath, relax, and enjoy the rest of the weekend because tomorrow a little after 6:00 pm Dayton's name will be called. Not for the play in games either, we are in and a solid 10 or 11 seed in the field. A little over 24 hours until it's official!
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  #573  
Old 03-15-2014, 05:52 PM
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ESPN Bubble Watch today:

" DAYTON 23-10 (10-6), RPI: 42, SOS: 55] Dayton's loss to the Hawks didn't hurt it much along Lunardi's S-Curve on Saturday morning, a conclusion with which we agree: Dayton's overall resume is strong, it played well in Maui in November, its spate of January losses came during a series of injuries, and it closed the season playing good basketball (and barely lost to St. Joe's anyway). It looks a strong possibility that the Flyers will play in the First Four in Dayton early next week, a prospect to which we can only say: yes, please."
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Old 03-15-2014, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
its spate of January losses came during a series of injuries
I'm glad to see somebody mentioning that.
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Old 03-15-2014, 06:36 PM
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Would be fun,...

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
ESPN Bubble Watch today:

" DAYTON 23-10 (10-6), RPI: 42, SOS: 55] ....It looks a strong possibility that the Flyers will play in the First Four in Dayton early next week, a prospect to which we can only say: yes, please."

But, just making it into the First Four isn't consistent with the site (Dancecard?) that has us as #35 and a 100% probability......with that site having such a high accuracy rating over the past two years. Right?
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Old 03-15-2014, 06:45 PM
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I would be shocked if we are in the First Four. The ESPN bubble watch is all based off of Lunardi's predictions. Almost every other bracket/webiste/experts have us in the field and not in the First Four. I also would not be surprised if when Lunardi updates his bracket tomorrow evening he moves us up out of his last four in.
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Old 03-15-2014, 06:57 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
But, just making it into the First Four isn't consistent with the site (Dancecard?) that has us as #35 and a 100% probability......with that site having such a high accuracy rating over the past two years. Right?
We'll all know tomorrow... the guesswork (which is exactly what all of these are) will be over soon.
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Old 03-15-2014, 07:00 PM
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Stain

Originally Posted by dnutz77 View Post
Stain also picked up some weight while he was out. His conditioning is a major issue and he had a LOT of trouble on D last night.
Posted via Mobile Device

That's "when" he finally made it down the court...lol
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Old 03-15-2014, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
I would be shocked if we are in the First Four. The ESPN bubble watch is all based off of Lunardi's predictions. Almost every other bracket/webiste/experts have us in the field and not in the First Four. I also would not be surprised if when Lunardi updates his bracket tomorrow evening he moves us up out of his last four in.
My guess is that we'll be in, but right at the First Four cut line. They won't be able to, in good conscience, leave us out, and they won't want to reward us with a home game, so I think we're headed out to Spokane or San Antonio. Still, at that point, we'd be dancing, most likely against a 6 or 7 seed. And at that point, I'll take it!
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Old 03-15-2014, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I think that it's very important to remember that they're all just guessing. Lunardi, Palm and everyone else who does this is not an extension of the committee.

I always get a huge kick when people don't understand that, and one or both of them badly misses on a team.

"We were a #8 seed last week. How did we drop all the way from an #8 seed to being out!!??!?!"

Ummm, you never were a #8 seed. Lunardi was just guessing that you were, and he guessed wrong.
I know you were just using it as an example, but these guys would never be 4 full seeds off. If the general agreement is that a team is probably a nine seed, their definitely getting in. It's the last one or two at-large selections that might screw up the alleged experts. I know i could get 65 teams correct right now. It's the last few that are tricky.
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Old 03-15-2014, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
But, just making it into the First Four isn't consistent with the site (Dancecard?) that has us as #35 and a 100% probability......with that site having such a high accuracy rating over the past two years. Right?
It's the talking heads in the media trying to create controversy. There is no way we are seeded that low. There are at least 8 teams that should be below us.
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Old 03-15-2014, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
But, just making it into the First Four isn't consistent with the site (Dancecard?) that has us as #35 and a 100% probability......with that site having such a high accuracy rating over the past two years. Right?
Agree. I look at the 1st 4 as a worst case for UD.
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Old 03-15-2014, 11:27 PM
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Wait a minute....what's that sound?

Coach K says the A-10 doesn't deserve 6 teams.

It isn't too late to take a few invites away from the A-10 ragamuffins.

Somebody will have to go so NC State can get in.
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Old 03-15-2014, 11:28 PM
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With Providence winning the Big East, Lunardi bumps x down to the first four.
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  #585  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
I hate rooting for Duke. Ugh.
Even more now, after Coach K's comments...
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  #586  
Old 03-16-2014, 06:48 AM
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For the first time in the last few days, I'm really getting nervous. I just looked at all of the latest bracketologists, and about all of them have UD as one of the last two teams in. Even bracketmatrix has UD as next to last in. If we are really that close anything can happen.
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Old 03-16-2014, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Class of 73 Alum View Post
For the first time in the last few days, I'm really getting nervous. I just looked at all of the latest bracketologists, and about all of them have UD as one of the last two teams in. Even bracketmatrix has UD as next to last in. If we are really that close anything can happen.
We weren't that close, but even if we were, take a look at who was next in line. NC State made it over SMU, Florida State, and Southern Miss. Even if they put is in First Four, we weren't actually close to being bumped out.
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  #588  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:59 PM
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I'm now glad Providence beat Creighton. Providence was probably in the First Four anyway. The win elevated Providence into the "regular" bracket and possibly bumped X down to the First Four, where I can root against them (although I hate to root for NC State).
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  #589  
Old 03-16-2014, 08:00 PM
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According to the official seed list, X was the next to last team in, just ahead of NC State. We were 2 off of the play ins, ranking ahead of Nebraska.
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Old 03-16-2014, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
According to the official seed list, X was the next to last team in, just ahead of NC State. We were 2 off of the play ins, ranking ahead of Nebraska.
I looks like we were the number one 11 seed and should have played the number 4 six seed but that was Baylor. So to avoid a repeat they moved us. Plus UMass was the number 3 six seed. We fall to play the number 2 six seed which was OSU.

Last edited by CE80; 03-16-2014 at 08:10 PM..
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Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
udflyerfan (03-17-2014)
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