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  #401  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:26 PM
bcross bcross is offline
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I'm not advocating playing Duke, I am advocating playing more Alabama/Boise State type teams in home and home series.

Finally, why are you guys so opposed to playing a tougher schedule? That makes no sense at all to me. Who is happy with playing the 139th NCSOS? Not me.
What is a "tougher" schedule by any reasonable standard, isn't always going to translate to the SOS metric.

For instance, using RPI Wizard, trade our top two buy games for Alabama/Boise.
Home
Bowling Green (109)
Eastern Michigan (139)

Away
Alabama (85)
Boise State (40)

Before the switch: RPI 32, SOS 93
If we go 2-0: RPI 29, SOS 93
1-1: RPI 34, SOS 94
0-2: RPI 40, SOS 96

Obviously, the schedule is more difficult, but that doesn't translate at all to our SOS. It would definitely make an impact if we subbed our worst two buy games for those H/H's, but so would have subbing those out for buy games in 100-200 range. Gaming for a better SOS isn't simple as we would like it to be.
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  #402  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Last year Temple had an overall RPI of 34, overall SOS of 60 and a non-conference SOS of 40. Temple did not get in. Don't pay attention to any one metric and even then, unless you are one of the blue bloods, you still can get hosed.
The NCAA Committee has been extremely consistent. Using the same criteria they have used the last 3 years, Dayton should have been 2nd team out. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm -- I would say Colorado St. and Miami out and Boise St. and Dayton in wasn't even a miss as all 4 teams lumped together in dance card.

I disagree with the criteria the Committee uses as it provides huge advantages for P5, but it is what it is and they have been consistent. They missed 1 in 2015, 1 in 2014, and 0 in 2013*. So with respect to applying consistent criteria, the NCAA committee has missed 2 teams in 3 years.

The committee places a huge emphasis on top 50 wins, quality road/neutral wins, and out-of-conference schedule. If we lose to Iowa, we only have 4-6 possible top 50 wins, too few possible quality road/neutral wins, and a not strong enough out-of-conference schedule.

It sounds like UD tried to schedule up, but we were unsuccessful. IMHO, it is not a revenue issue where UD turned down on the road games because loss of home revenue. But I think we are a little off on the NCAA selection criteria. UC was able to schedule 4-6 top 50 games OOC including VCU, Butler, Iowa State, and Xavier -- http://www.gobearcats.com/sports/m-b...kbl-sched.html -- I could cite other examples. Our current OOC schedule gives us very little room for error. We need to figure out a way to make it in the top 10% of OOC schedules in 2016-2017.

*The committee should have had Temple in and UCLA out -- this was really only mistake they made in 2015 consistency. 2 Reasons for the miss IMHO: (1) P5 Bias; and (2) Committee Chair was West Coast guy (Dance Card has shown Committee Chair's Conference consistently has advantage in having their teams selected, I will go further and say even though Utah St. Chair had Regional Bias). In 2014, Cal should have been in and N.C. State out (committee chair from ACC explains this). In 2013, the committee was consistent and got 100% "right" according to the criteria they had used in the past. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2013.htm
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  #403  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Last year Temple had an overall RPI of 34, overall SOS of 60 and a non-conference SOS of 40. Temple did not get in. Don't pay attention to any one metric and even then, unless you are one of the blue bloods, you still can get hosed.
They got totally jobbed. Dance Card had them 10 spots inside of the cut line, I bet that is the biggest miss by the Dance Card ever. They should have been a shoe-in.

They were #38 on Dance Card, the last team in was #47.

They were 2-8 vs. the rpi top 50, and they had 10 losses, UD only had 8 losses. That is what the committee used against them I guess.

I think UD cannot give the committee ammo to use against UD. A weak SOS, not enough road games, etc. are ammo that can be used against you.
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  #404  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The NCAA Committee has been extremely consistent. Using the same criteria they have used the last 3 years, Dayton should have been 2nd team out. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm -- I would say Colorado St. and Miami out and Boise St. and Dayton in wasn't even a miss as all 4 teams lumped together in dance card.

I disagree with the criteria the Committee uses as it provides huge advantages for P5, but it is what it is and they have been consistent. They missed 1 in 2015, 1 in 2014, and 0 in 2013*. So with respect to applying consistent criteria, the NCAA committee has missed 2 teams in 3 years.

The committee places a huge emphasis on top 50 wins, quality road/neutral wins, and out-of-conference schedule. If we lose to Iowa, we only have 4-6 possible top 50 wins, too few possible quality road/neutral wins, and a not strong enough out-of-conference schedule.

It sounds like UD tried to schedule up, but we were unsuccessful. IMHO, it is not a revenue issue where UD turned down on the road games because loss of home revenue. But I think we are a little off on the NCAA selection criteria. UC was able to schedule 4-6 top 50 games OOC including VCU, Butler, Iowa State, and Xavier -- http://www.gobearcats.com/sports/m-b...kbl-sched.html -- I could cite other examples. Our current OOC schedule gives us very little room for error. We need to figure out a way to make it in the top 10% of OOC schedules in 2016-2017.

*The committee should have had Temple in and UCLA out -- this was really only mistake they made in 2015 consistency. 2 Reasons for the miss IMHO: (1) P5 Bias; and (2) Committee Chair was West Coast guy (Dance Card has shown Committee Chair's Conference consistently has advantage in having their teams selected, I will go further and say even though Utah St. Chair had Regional Bias). In 2014, Cal should have been in and N.C. State out (committee chair from ACC explains this). In 2013, the committee was consistent and got 100% "right" according to the criteria they had used in the past. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2013.htm
Understand the west coast bias for UCLA but why wasn't UD or Boise St left out instead of Temple?
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  #405  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
They were 2-8 vs. the rpi top 50, and they had 10 losses, UD only had 8 losses. That is what the committee used against them I guess.
That's what gets missed IMO. Just because you have a great SOS doesn't mean you're in. What if you go 2-8 in those games??? Then you have to win your conference tournament.

But if you're selective (not masochistic) and win big in conference UD is in the enviable position that we can get in. Most non-P5 schools don't have that luxury and have to play the lottery every year--overschedule and hope to get lucky or count on winning the conference tournament.
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  #406  
Old 07-27-2015, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross View Post
What is a "tougher" schedule by any reasonable standard, isn't always going to translate to the SOS metric.

For instance, using RPI Wizard, trade our top two buy games for Alabama/Boise.
Home
Bowling Green (109)
Eastern Michigan (139)

Away
Alabama (85)
Boise State (40)

Before the switch: RPI 32, SOS 93
If we go 2-0: RPI 29, SOS 93
1-1: RPI 34, SOS 94
0-2: RPI 40, SOS 96

Obviously, the schedule is more difficult, but that doesn't translate at all to our SOS. It would definitely make an impact if we subbed our worst two buy games for those H/H's, but so would have subbing those out for buy games in 100-200 range. Gaming for a better SOS isn't simple as we would like it to be.
Great point, that is very illuminating, but UD's rpi still improved to #29. At #29, I doubt that UD is still in the First Four, they are in the regular field at that point. Definitely try to avoid the upper 200 and 300 rpi teams as buy games.

Subbing those two for Alabama A&M and UIC, the two worst buy games, and assume roadie at Boise and home with Alabama, which would be a 15/15 split like I want. That results in rpi 24 and SOS 76 if you win both. 24 and 76 probably gets you a 5 or 6 seed IMO, maybe?

Last edited by ud2; 07-27-2015 at 04:06 PM..
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  #407  
Old 07-27-2015, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Understand the west coast bias for UCLA but why wasn't UD or Boise St left out instead of Temple?
CE80, you raise a great point. No idea how the committee excludes Temple. They should have been in over both Boise and Dayton if Commitee used consistent criteria (again, I disagree with criteria but it is what it is).

They were 3-8 top 50 (not counting NIT). I think their win versus #45 RPI LA Tech in November Tourney discounted as non top 50 or perhaps LA Tech not in top 50 RPI at time of NCAA selection so 2-8 top 50 with wins over Kansas neutral and Cincy home.
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  #408  
Old 07-27-2015, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Great point, that is very illuminating, but UD's rpi still improved to #29. At #29, I doubt that UD is still in the First Four, they are in the regular field at that point. Definitely try to avoid the upper 200 and 300 rpi teams as buy games.

Subbing those two for Alabama A&M and UIC, the two worst buy games, and assume roadie at Boise and home with Alabama, which would be a 15/15 split like I want. That results in rpi 24 and SOS 76 if you win both. 24 and 76 probably gets you a 5 or 6 seed IMO, maybe?
That's only if we beat both. We were 1-4 on the road vs Top 100 opponents, and barely beat Boise on a "neutral" floor, so that would be a tall order.

For Comparison
(A) Swap out Alabama A&M & UIC for road wins @Alabama/@Boise
RPI: 23 SOS: 76

(B) Swap out Alabama A&M & UIC home wins vs. Chattanooga (113)/North Florida (162)
RPI: 26 SOS: 78

(A) is obviously more impressive in terms of quality wins, but there is very little difference in terms of RPI/SOS from (B).

This is why I will take the Chattanooga/North Florida type matchups over the starting a H/H with MAC opponent. To be clear, I have no problem with the H/H's with Alabama/Boise, I was just using them as an example because you had mentioned them.

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  #409  
Old 07-27-2015, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Disagree, CBS has the NCSOS as 139 and the overall SOS as 93.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...acketology/sos
Which makes CBS incorrect.
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  #410  
Old 07-27-2015, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Great point, that is very illuminating, but UD's rpi still improved to #29. At #29, I doubt that UD is still in the First Four, they are in the regular field at that point. Definitely try to avoid the upper 200 and 300 rpi teams as buy games.

Subbing those two for Alabama A&M and UIC, the two worst buy games, and assume roadie at Boise and home with Alabama, which would be a 15/15 split like I want. That results in rpi 24 and SOS 76 if you win both. 24 and 76 probably gets you a 5 or 6 seed IMO, maybe?
I think we would all love it if UD played more of a heavyweight schedule. But these things do not exist in a vacuum. First of all, as has been correctly pointed out, UD's nonconference schedule has never held us back from anything. Not last year, when we won two NCAA games. Not the year before, when we won three. Not the NIT championship year, not Chris Wright's freshman year. It's been stubbing our toe in conference play which has been our downfall. I should say "had" been, pre-Archie.

Second, you're proposing we swap out our first game, supposedly an easier, get-your-feet-wet game, with a cross-country trip to Boise. Then our first game back from a tough Puerto Rico trip, we're supposed to play another SEC team at home. Or would it have been preferable to play Alabama first, then fly from PR to Dayton then to Boise? This assumes both team wanted to play us and had those dates available.

I think our scheduling philosophy is pretty sound. Get in a good early season exempt tournament, hopefully get 2 or 3 Power 5 games. Play a couple easier games to start the season, maybe right after the tournament, and around finals. Have a few home-and-home series, hopefully with solid teams. Play a few teams that should be winnable, but who will likely win plenty of games in their conference. If we take care of business and perform in conference, we're in great shape.

If you want to swap a game for this coming year, swap the Miami home game for a road game starting a home and home series. Maybe with the other Miami, I dunno. I'm sure UD would have loved to get out of that series in favor of a better one, but for many reasons, could not (or would not). One other thought re: this year's schedule. Once you plug in the names of the other two Orlando teams, it will look a lot prettier. Let's say you plug in Notre Dame and Wichita State. Or ND and eggsavier. Don't forget there is another TBD who could be a decent midmajor type game.

Also, a whole bunch of stuff conspired against us last year. A&M, GT, Ole Miss, UConn all underperformed. The entire A-10 underperformed. So all we need for this year is for the A-10 to be up to snuff, and for us to take care of business. If we miss the NCAA, it will NOT be because our nonconference schedule was too weak.
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  #411  
Old 07-27-2015, 09:12 PM
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I think it's more that the program is a different point than just getting into the tourney. This is the caliber of team that can contend for a conference title and a 4-6 seed
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  #412  
Old 07-27-2015, 09:22 PM
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Boston College #165, GT #153, and Miami #230 were below expectations IMO, those games were part of the problem. Bad luck to a degree.

It is fun to play around with that wizard, it becomes quite apparent that it takes a whole lot to really move the needle on SOS.

It is a lot more difficult to have a solid SOS than I realized, many things have to line up correctly.

I was trying to get to a SOS of around 60, two scenarios that worked:

Drop BC, #77 UConn, GT, and Miami, add #50, #50, #50, and #75.

Or

Drop Alabama A&M, UIC, GT, and Miami, add Alabama, Boise, #75, and #100.

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Old 07-27-2015, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
FYI, UDs SOS last year was #103 not #139. Non-con SOS, which is largely the only part UD controls, was #71. That's 80th percentile.
Maybe after the tournament, but our non-conf SOS was #159 on Selection Sunday. That's when it matters.

https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20...y%20Gritty.pdf
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Old 07-27-2015, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
I think it's more that the program is a different point than just getting into the tourney. This is the caliber of team that can contend for a conference title and a 4-6 seed
I don't disagree with the second sentence but I don't really understand the first. I don't think our current nonconference schedule will keep us out of the tournament. I think it can set us up fairly nicely for a good seed if we take care of business. Let's say we win our home games, lose at Vandy, and go 2-1 in Orlando (we'll assume beating Iowa). That would be really pretty nice. A good-but-not-great 13-5 in conference would be just fine for a decent seed. To get a 4-6 seed though, we're going to have to be 14-4 or better in conference, I think. But we're getting way ahead of things. My point would be that changing the nonconference schedule isn't really the issue.

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Boston College #165, GT #153, and Miami #230 were below expectations IMO, those games were part of the problem. Bad luck to a degree.

It is fun to play around with that wizard, it becomes quite apparent that it takes a whole lot to really move the needle on SOS.

It is a lot more difficult to have a solid SOS than I realized, many things have to line up correctly.

I was trying to get to a SOS of around 60, two scenarios that worked:

Drop BC, #77 UConn, GT, and Miami, add #50, #50, #50, and #75.

Or

Drop Alabama A&M, UIC, GT, and Miami, add Alabama, Boise, #75, and #100.
Bolding added by me. I agree completely with the bolded portion. It is flipping hard to change things up. Look what you had to do - you had to change out two games from the exempt tournament (which of course we have no control over), the GT home game, and put in a mythical #50 RPI team three times. Just for argument's sake, let's say that we got the #49, #50, and #51 team instead of the un-named #50. That's Wofford, Tulsa, and Texas. On paper before the season, you'd have to like BC, UConn and GT better, right? I'd give you playing UTEP (RPI #75) over playing Miami at home, but still...

That's why this is so darn hard. You'd think before the season it would be better to play the defending national champion UConn Huskies over playing the UTEP Miners, but you'd be wrong! And I don't even want to talk about which team played UTEP in an exempt tournament. And lost.
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Old 07-28-2015, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I think UD cannot give the committee ammo to use against UD. A weak SOS, not enough road games, etc. are ammo that can be used against you.
It is next to impossible for a program like UD to not have ammo to be used against them, save winning 27 or so games.
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Old 07-28-2015, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
Second, you're proposing we swap out our first game, supposedly an easier, get-your-feet-wet game, with a cross-country trip to Boise. Then our first game back from a tough Puerto Rico trip, we're supposed to play another SEC team at home. Or would it have been preferable to play Alabama first, then fly from PR to Dayton then to Boise? This assumes both team wanted to play us and had those dates available.
Great post. It's kind of like IPFW 2 years ago (Siebert's buzzer beater in the first game of the season). There's a reason you don't generally play Michigan State as your first game of the season unless 1) you're planning to get your brains beat in, or 2) you're someone like Duke that will have 25 other chances to redeem yourself.

Originally Posted by THirt View Post
To get a 4-6 seed though, we're going to have to be 14-4 or better in conference, I think.
Agree completely, except that I think you're underestimating it! Wichita State went 30-4 (17-1) with wins over #10 Northern Iowa, New Mexico State, Tulsa, Alabama, Memphis, Seton Hall, and lost to #25 Utah in OT. Don't get me wrong that's not murderer's row, but still, that only got them a #7 seed. If we went 17-1 in conference it would undoubtedly lead to a higher SOS but that's nearly what it would take for us to get a #4 seed in today's NCAA.

Aiming for a goal like that is playing the lottery. It could happen. It happens to someone nearly every year. It's unlikely to be us.
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Old 07-28-2015, 09:26 AM
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We will be sweating the RPI and SOS every season until the A10 gets a strong voice on the Selection Committee. Even that won't solve it, but it sure would help.

Feels like we are pushing a car uphill with a rope.
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Old 07-28-2015, 09:47 AM
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After playing around with the wizard, I have come to the unfortunate conclusion that UD in the future is going to have really kick butt to get a solid seed. There are always a couple bad A10 losses, that is the nature of league play, and there aren't enough OOC opportunities to really improve the rpi.

You have to get down to around 5 or fewer losses probably if you want to get your rpi to down around 20, which would earn you maybe a 6 seed with a sos of 93.

Even improving the sos to the upper 60's/70's range where UD usually is, is only going to buy you 1 or maybe 2 more losses if you want to keep the rpi around 20.

I ran that wizard, if you eliminate the away losses at Davidson, UMass, and GW, you can get the rpi down to 20 with ONLY 5 losses.

5 losses! Wow. That is extremely difficult.

They would have had to have gone 16-2 in the A10 under that scenario. 13-5, take away 3 losses, end up at 16-2. That most likely isn't ever going to happen consistently. They need more OOC opportunities.

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Old 07-28-2015, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post


Agree completely, except that I think you're underestimating it! Wichita State went 30-4 (17-1) with wins over #10 Northern Iowa, New Mexico State, Tulsa, Alabama, Memphis, Seton Hall, and lost to #25 Utah in OT. Don't get me wrong that's not murderer's row, but still, that only got them a #7 seed. If we went 17-1 in conference it would undoubtedly lead to a higher SOS but that's nearly what it would take for us to get a #4 seed in today's NCAA.

Aiming for a goal like that is playing the lottery. It could happen. It happens to someone nearly every year. It's unlikely to be us.
The MVC had its worst season as a conference and that really drug them down. MVC was behind the MAC last year in RPI.

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
We will be sweating the RPI and SOS every season until the A10 gets a strong voice on the Selection Committee. Even that won't solve it, but it sure would help.

Feels like we are pushing a car uphill with a rope.

I don't think this is true at all. I'm not a believer in no matter what the Committee is going to screw us no matter. Xavier in the A10, Gonzaga and a host of other teams outside the Power 5 don't seem to have that issue.

I don't think we can count on the A10 to get that much better either. It's a 3-5 bid league. A10 was ranked 7th per CBS in conference RPI last year and that's probably a reasonable range to expect for the league.

We'll be sweating RPI and SOS till we take more proactive steps to deal with it. Ted Kissell put out the "New Realities" thing about scheduling about a decade ago saying we had to look to the CAA/MWC.

Maybe its time for a new version of that. If someone mentioned Oklahoma State would only do a neutral and neutral then maybe that's something that should be considered. If Kansas/Kansas St/Missouri (assuming KState or Mizzou would have be top 75) then maybe a game at the Sprint Center in KC should be on the table.

Davidson went 14-4 & won the A10 and that landed them a 10 seed. The league wasn't down like the one bid days in the mid 00s either
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Old 07-28-2015, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug View Post
It is next to impossible for a program like UD to not have ammo to be used against them, save winning 27 or so games.
You don't have to win 27 if you beef up the SOS.
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Old 07-28-2015, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Davidson went 14-4 & won the A10 and that landed them a 10 seed.
Add that to our having to play a last four game when most services had us 8 to 10.

IMO neither of those would have happened if we had a strong lobby on the SC.

Sometimes you can work the equation to diminishing returns. The real multipliers are on the committee.
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Old 07-28-2015, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
You don't have to win 27 if you beef up the SOS.
I think you are finding out how hard that really is. All the modeling you do on any of the RPI simulators shows how hard it is to really move the needle.

And it really wasn't my point. My point is that for a UD, Wichita State, etc unless you win 27 or so, there will be something they can point to if they are looking for ways to keep you out. Beef up the schedule and play more road games, it might be you didn't win enough of the games. Win a lot and it might be you didn't have enough tough games or road games. Play a tough schedule, win 23 and lost to Duquesne, LaSalle and Saint Bonaventure on the road and you had too many bad losses.

The point is there is always going to be something to point to if you don't win that many. Last year it was the schedule was soft - mostly because the neutral site games were far worse than expected and how gawd awful Georgia Tech and Miami were. This year some teams that are buy games might win 20, and it will be lack of road games. Next year you could play 4 true road games against top 100 competition, and if you go 2-2 or 1-3 in those it will be great, you played them but you lost too many.

For gosh sakes Wichita State won 30 and ended up with a 7 seed. If they only win 26 are they on the bubble (or in the NIT)?

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Old 07-28-2015, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
That's what gets missed IMO. Just because you have a great SOS doesn't mean you're in. What if you go 2-8 in those games??? .
Then you're Texas
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Old 07-28-2015, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The committee places a huge emphasis on top 50 wins, quality road/neutral wins, and out-of-conference schedule. If we lose to Iowa, we only have 4-6 possible top 50 wins, too few possible quality road/neutral wins, and a not strong enough out-of-conference schedule.
And the easiest way to get top 50 wins is to make sure your future league opponents can buy their way to 10 wins in the non-con.

OSU was the poster child for this last season. They went 11-2 in the non-con losing at Louisville (ACC-B1G Challenge) and in Chicago to UNC. They racked up home wins against UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead, NC A&T, Wright St & Miami (OH).

Then they limp through the B1G conf schedule going 11-7 eeking out road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers & Penn St. With nine home games, this blind squirrel finds a BuckNut and gets a statement win against Maryland at home.

At no point are they ever in danger of being left out of the tourney despite their best non-home win being at RPI 101 Minnesota. And being a magnanimous institution they continue donating top 50 wins to every decent team that plays them.

Until Dayton gets into a conference that can afford to buy-up non-conf wins they dang sure better figure out a way to get those top 50 teams on the schedule. By and large they have been successful, but as the landscape changes and non-con games are affected by scarcity I think they'll need to beef up the non-con slightly by adding additional roadies.
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Old 07-28-2015, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
Then you're Texas
And until we're Texas, we're UD. . . watching the tournament from home.
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Old 07-28-2015, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Last year Temple had an overall RPI of 34, overall SOS of 60 and a non-conference SOS of 40. Temple did not get in. Don't pay attention to any one metric and even then, unless you are one of the blue bloods, you still can get hosed.
Winner winner chickin dinner.
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Old 07-28-2015, 02:46 PM
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If no one has said it yet, props to the SEC for scheduling UD home-home. Can't get that kind of love from the BE, B12, B10, ACC, P12. Hope we beat all three this year, but I hope the scheduling gamble pays off for them as it did for Ole Miss last year.
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Old 07-28-2015, 04:21 PM
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All this scheduling talk, RPI, SOS, the A-10 getting hosed, needing a better conference to get a better SOS - doesn't all this point out that we would be better off in the Big East. Yet there are still people who don't think so. Whether or not they are a better conference (which I think they are), the perception is that they are better, and that is what matters.
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Old 07-28-2015, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
If no one has said it yet, props to the SEC for scheduling UD home-home. Can't get that kind of love from the BE, B12, B10, ACC, P12. Hope we beat all three this year, but I hope the scheduling gamble pays off for them as it did for Ole Miss last year.
Could be a very good reason the NBE isn't scheduling the Flyers
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Old 07-28-2015, 04:52 PM
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From the Raleigh, NC Observer:

"this week confirmed the use of such metrics as Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s efficiency ratings was even more extensive than Barnes described that day in March.

“More this year than any prior year, we looked at other systems when there were gaps and inconsistencies in the RPI,” Barnes said. “We talked more about it, how the RPI doesn’t tell the whole story.”

This is a change from past practice, when the committee hewed so closely to its procedures and principles that, combined with its slavish devotion to RPI, it was possible for the increasingly educated consumer to mimic the process from outside the committee room. The average score on Bracket Matrix, a website which tracks bracketologists, went up each year from 2010 through 2014 as predictions, collectively, improved.

That changed in 2015, when teams like Texas and UCLA benefited from strong KenPom ratings to get into the field and Oklahoma was seeded ahead of Maryland. In each case, use of the RPI-based resume to compare teams would have suggested different results.

With Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis taking over as committee chairman in 2017, this trend does not figure to abate soon. (Oklahoma’s Joe Castiglione is the chairman this season.) Hollis has a history of embracing innovation – the Carrier Classic was his idea, among others – and one of the new metrics, KPI, was invented by a Michigan State basketball staffer, Kevin Pauga and introduced to the committee by Hollis.

The new numbers produced some unexpected results on Selection Sunday, but they’re clearly here to stay."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/s...#storylink=cpy
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Old 07-28-2015, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
From the Raleigh, NC Observer:

"this week confirmed the use of such metrics as Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s efficiency ratings was even more extensive than Barnes described that day in March.

“More this year than any prior year, we looked at other systems when there were gaps and inconsistencies in the RPI,” Barnes said. “We talked more about it, how the RPI doesn’t tell the whole story.”

This is a change from past practice, when the committee hewed so closely to its procedures and principles that, combined with its slavish devotion to RPI, it was possible for the increasingly educated consumer to mimic the process from outside the committee room. The average score on Bracket Matrix, a website which tracks bracketologists, went up each year from 2010 through 2014 as predictions, collectively, improved.

That changed in 2015, when teams like Texas and UCLA benefited from strong KenPom ratings to get into the field and Oklahoma was seeded ahead of Maryland. In each case, use of the RPI-based resume to compare teams would have suggested different results.

With Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis taking over as committee chairman in 2017, this trend does not figure to abate soon. (Oklahoma’s Joe Castiglione is the chairman this season.) Hollis has a history of embracing innovation – the Carrier Classic was his idea, among others – and one of the new metrics, KPI, was invented by a Michigan State basketball staffer, Kevin Pauga and introduced to the committee by Hollis.

The new numbers produced some unexpected results on Selection Sunday, but they’re clearly here to stay."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/s...#storylink=cpy
Good article, thanks for sharing Jack72. Kenpom ratings would explain Dayton, Boise State, and UCLA over Temple. But despite the Committee using "new information," they were consistent using the same criteria they have used the last 10 years (with only difference being UCLA over Temple). http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

So three observations: (1) seems like the Committee is using advance metrics when it suits them? Dayton was ahead of UCLA in kenpom on Selection Sunday as well as Oregon, LSU, etc., etc. so why were we seeded lower? The only deviation they made in using advance metrics was basically to put a P5 team UCLA over a non-P5 team Temple. (2) If kenpom, sagarin, etc. are used going forward, huge incentive to run up the score as well as fight for every point even when you have lost a game. I never would put in walk-ons as kenpom is essentially (I am simplifying) based upon two factors: (a) points scored per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents); and (b) points allowed per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents); (3) with kenpom, winning and losing does not matter which is an interesting way to judge NCAA teams.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...lanationpoints given up per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents). http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...al_efficiency/

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Old 07-28-2015, 05:33 PM
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So now we have two more ratings to contend with. Discussion of these will prove interesting.
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Old 07-28-2015, 05:55 PM
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A little bit more regarding Wichita State...they went 27-3, 1-1 MVC tournament, 2-1 NCAA tournament, got to the Sweet 16, finished 30-5 overall, 7 seed.

A 28-4 season only got them a 7 seed, ouch.



Rpi 17, SOS 98, almost the same SOS as UD's SOS which was 93.





The above posts about new metrics just sound like new ways to job the non-p5 schools...the committee can justify anything now, all they have to do is point to whatever metric they need to point to in order to justify a particular selection, all the while ignoring certain metrics with other selections.

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Old 07-28-2015, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The above posts about new metrics just sound like new ways to job the non-p5 schools...the committee can justify anything now, all they have to do is point to whatever metric they need to point to in order to justify a particular selection, all the while ignoring certain metrics with other selections.
Bingo! But they have always done this. This simply gives them more metrics to choose from when they want to boost up a certain school or downgrade another.
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Old 07-28-2015, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Good article, thanks for sharing Jack72. Kenpom ratings would explain Dayton, Boise State, and UCLA over Temple. But despite the Committee using "new information," they were consistent using the same criteria they have used the last 10 years (with only difference being UCLA over Temple). http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

So three observations: (1) seems like the Committee is using advance metrics when it suits them? Dayton was ahead of UCLA in kenpom on Selection Sunday as well as Oregon, LSU, etc., etc. so why were we seeded lower? The only deviation they made in using advance metrics was basically to put a P5 team UCLA over a non-P5 team Temple. (2) If kenpom, sagarin, etc. are used going forward, huge incentive to run up the score as well as fight for every point even when you have lost a game. I never would put in walk-ons as kenpom is essentially (I am simplifying) based upon two factors: (a) points scored per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents); and (b) points allowed per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents); (3) with kenpom, winning and losing does not matter which is an interesting way to judge NCAA teams.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...lanationpoints given up per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents). http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...al_efficiency/
I think all seeding should be done by RPI if that's the NCAA's official ranking system. If RPI isn't sufficient to capture all of the P5 seeding "nuances," then fix the RPI.
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Old 07-28-2015, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
A little bit more regarding Wichita State...they went 27-3, 1-1 MVC tournament, 2-1 NCAA tournament, got to the Sweet 16, finished 30-5 overall, 7 seed.

A 28-4 season only got them a 7 seed, ouch.

Rpi 17, SOS 98, almost the same SOS as UD's SOS which was 93.
Wichita State was #15 kenpom on Selection Sunday. Should have been a clear #4 seed if committee was really using advanced metrics (but they got a 7). Maryland was #34 in kenpom so should have had an 8 seed using advanced metrics (but they got a 4). Sagarin ratings were similar to kenpom. Sounds like Committee again is cherry-picking to benefit the P5 ...
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Old 07-28-2015, 09:42 PM
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I love kenpom's site and visit religiously. How efficient a team is on either side of the ball should have 0 bearing on which teams are included or where they are seeded.

Now if they want to get on board with Fairness in quality wins then I'm all for it.
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  #438  
Old 07-28-2015, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
I love kenpom's site and visit religiously. How efficient a team is on either side of the ball should have 0 bearing on which teams are included or where they are seeded.

Now if they want to get on board with Fairness in quality wins then I'm all for it.
I agree with all of this. Sadly, I don't think the Selection Committee is all that motivated by Fairness in Anything.

The 2015 selection process, backed up by that Raleigh, NC article leads me to suspect that the Selection Committee is only interested in finding new metrics that act as a numerical version of The Eye Test. See, look, we used a stat, it justifies our choices, it's MATH~!

But yeah, that's terrible, and I hope somebody calls them on it. Much like SABRmetrics in baseball, it's all well and good if you isolate the individual processes that lead to success at the discrete/per-plate-appearance level. But when teams still massively over- and under-perform the sum of their 8 hitters, you should still base a LOT of your analysis on wins and losses. Not "eye tests." I love WAR and RC+, but I don't want to start awarding playoff spots based on them.

Go ahead and RATE those wins and losses based on competition level (and, to a lesser extent, home and away), but don't go emphasizing entirely different "stats" because you're being intellectually dishonest about your real goal. Which is to quantify "the eye test."



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  #439  
Old 07-29-2015, 03:05 AM
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Remember when "just get the job done in the conference" was the flavor of the month for getting into the NCAA around here? There are a million ways to analyze how to get in or knocked out of the NCAA Tournament. There is no set criteria that you can really stack science behind when things are tight on the bubble. It's just what is being emphasized a bit more that year.

There is a general bias against our league/SOS and a refusal by many on the other side of the bias to schedule us to preserve the status quo. We just need to keep up the pattern of success in the NCAA tournament and the season that proves we are underseeded and underestimated as a program. That will help us build immunity to that league bias over time. I think that we are in a very good position to do that.

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Old 07-29-2015, 08:05 AM
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For the most part, there will be 3-5 teams from the A10 in the dance. We just need to find a way to be one of those 3-5 teams. Our SOS and RPI are fine as long as we win our P5 games and avoid crippling losses. Once league play starts we need to be one of the 3 best teams. X didn't always win the league. Same with VCU. But they were/are always near the top. Let's just schedule the best we can, control what we can control, and win some basketball games.
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  #441  
Old 07-29-2015, 09:15 AM
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Agree that if UD follows the OOC script, then everything is fine, and UD will make the NCAA tournament.

I just think that if UD doesn't follow the OOC script exactly as laid out, then you fall into a hole, and you really have to climb up very hard to get yourself out of that hole.

If you don't follow the OOC script, then you have to really kick butt in the A10.

The selection committee starts using the SOS against you too if you don't follow the OOC script.



If UD loses to Iowa, UD's SOS is probably going to take a hit. You could potentially play Monmouth and Alabama if you lose to Iowa.

There is too much emphasis/pressure being placed on the first game of these tournaments.

Last year, had UD lost to TAMU, instead of getting #77 UConn and then #165 BC, UD would have gotten #297 Charleston and #172 New Mexico.

It is not at all an exaggeration to say that beating TAMU on a last second tip-in LITERALLY saved the season.

Playing Charleston and NM instead of UConn and BC would have destroyed UD's SOS.



This year, if UD loses to Iowa, the SOS may very well be damaged beyond salvageable condition.

There needs to be a better backup plan if UD stubs its toe during the OOC schedule.

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  #442  
Old 07-29-2015, 09:46 AM
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I ran the rpi wizard. If UD lost to #67 TAMU, and then beat College of Charleston and New Mexico, then UD's rpi would have been 34 instead of 33 and the SOS would have been 105 instead of 93.

I doubt that UD gets into the NCAA tournament under that scenario since UD was one of the last four in.

You can't place such huge emphasis on the first game of these tournaments. Somebody gets injured, bad call by the refs, etc., and the season is potentially ruined with a first round loss in that tournament.

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Old 07-29-2015, 09:48 AM
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Isn't the selection committee wonderful? After searching for years they finally have arrived at a agenda that is so slanted toward the P5 schools it isn't even funny.

The playing field is all down hill for P5 schools and all up hill for everyone else. The Flyers have virtually no margin for error, so they'd better just steam roll their way to the A-10 championship. Any other avenue is too perilous and uncertain.
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  #444  
Old 07-29-2015, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I ran the rpi wizard. If UD lost to #67 TAMU, and then beat College of Charleston and New Mexico, then UD's rpi would have been 34 instead of 33 and the SOS would have been 105 instead of 93.

I doubt that UD gets into the NCAA tournament under that scenario since UD was one of the last four in.

You can't place such huge emphasis on the first game of these tournaments. Somebody gets injured, bad call by the refs, etc., and the season is potentially ruined with a first round loss in that tournament.
We can play ifs and buts all day, but fact of the matter is we don't know what would happen if this happened. Sure, we could have lost to TAMU, but then maybe we beat Duquesne, La Salle, and GW. We can make up situation after situation, but the facts are we do not know what would have happened.
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  #445  
Old 07-29-2015, 09:59 AM
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If UD had lost to TAMU, then I bet Colorado State, rpi 29 SOS 111, or Temple, rpi 34 SOS 62, gets UD's bid.

CSU's SOS of 111 would have been very close to UD's SOS of 105, and CSU's rpi of 29 would have been 4 spots better than UD.

Temple and UD would have had basically identical rpi's, but Temple's SOS would have been 43 spots better than UD's.

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Old 07-29-2015, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Agree that if UD follows the OOC script, then everything is fine, and UD will make the NCAA tournament.

I just think that if UD doesn't follow the OOC script exactly as laid out, then you fall into a hole, and you really have to climb up very hard to get yourself out of that hole.

If you don't follow the OOC script, then you have to really kick butt in the A10.

The selection committee starts using the SOS against you too if you don't follow the OOC script.



If UD loses to Iowa, UD's SOS is probably going to take a hit. You could potentially play Monmouth and Alabama if you lose to Iowa.

There is too much emphasis/pressure being placed on the first game of these tournaments.

Last year, had UD lost to TAMU, instead of getting #77 UConn and then #165 BC, UD would have gotten #297 Charleston and #172 New Mexico.

It is not at all an exaggeration to say that beating TAMU on a last second tip-in LITERALLY saved the season.

Playing Charleston and NM instead of UConn and BC would have destroyed UD's SOS.



This year, if UD loses to Iowa, the SOS may very well be damaged beyond salvageable condition.

There needs to be a better backup plan if UD stubs its toe during the OOC schedule.
There is...it's win the conference tournament. Same as it is for every other school outside the P5.
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  #447  
Old 07-29-2015, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
There needs to be a better backup plan if UD stubs its toe during the OOC schedule.
I appreciate the way you're thinking, and there are of course shades of gray so you're not necessarily saying to take it to the extreme. But what you're effectively saying is "we're going to take that island, and from there we'll be in a better position to fight that next battle head-on where we're outnumbered 2:1."

What many of us are saying is: don't fight the battle where we're outnumbered 2:1 (such as playing 3 top-50 teams on the road). It's a bad fight to pick--even though we might win. Instead we're going to circle around and cut off the supply lines and starve them out (play several top 100 teams and count on a good tournament showing).

Both are plans. Both might work. Both might fail. You never know until it plays out. Certainly if you win the head-on battle you have won the war. And if not, you have lost the war (the committee says "you played top schools already and proved you're not good enough").

Our administration is taking a tactical approach.
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Old 07-29-2015, 01:55 PM
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If they lose to Iowa, and then the SOS suffers as a result and ends up costing them an at large bid, then I don't want to hear any complaints about the selection committee jobbing UD, like this year for example when people complained that the selection committee jobbed UD.

UD chose this path on purpose, there is an alternate route that UD could have chosen, but UD chose not to take that alternate route.

This past season showed you how the selection committee operates, you have to adjust your approach in order to give them what they want, if you don't adjust your approach, then don't complain if you get jobbed, you were given fair warning by the selection committee this past season.

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  #449  
Old 07-29-2015, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
UD chose this path on purpose, there is an alternate route that UD could have chosen, but UD chose not to take that alternate route.
But what evidence is there that suggests UD made no attempt to do exactly as you say.

In order to schedule other teams, the other team has to want to schedule you too.

News flash: nobody wants to play us. Not even in their own gyms. Not even the good teams. Why? No need. The Power-5 teams have no incentive to risk losing non-con games when they have the safety and security of their own league to punch their ticket in. And with almost everyone going to an 18-game league season, the reasons are becoming even less relevant to play a Power-5 team. Losing at home is a killer to your RPI to just about anybody outside the RPI Top-15. So why pay double to buy Dayton when you can buy Delaware State and get exactly the ROI you want to protect your own interest?

Lets also remind ourselves that there are bills to be paid in the UD athletic department and men's basketball makes that possible. The home games are the reason the football team has uniforms and the volleyball team has volleyballs. We can cut home games for sure, but who here is willing to write a $500 check to help cover lost revenue for that lost home game so we can play Memphis on the road and keep the stripes painted at Baujan Field? Not me. And are we willing to send UD to play a one-way game at UCLA on a Thursday night (say the only available date UCLA has open) when we have to play Arkansas back in Dayton on a Saturday night? Scheduling also involved the welfare of the players, their ability to recover, travel obstacles, time schedules, classes, exams, etc. And UD's opponents must do the same.

Its hard to appreciate the complexity of scheduling and just how many balls are trying to be juggled at the same time. I think the base wouldn't be so quick to criticize if they saw the process. Not that criticism is never warranted. Some schedules are better than others. Nobody Rube Goldbergs scheduling to try to "get er done" more than UD. But the landscape of college basketball is changing and UD is on its own island in many ways: operates like a Power-5 program, is supported like a Power-5 program, plays in a facility like a Power-5 program, competes like a Power-5 program, but is not a Power-5 program.

The last part of that equation makes all the difference. Its not like BYU, New Mexico, and Creighton have it any easier or have much better luck. An two of those have FBS football money!
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  #450  
Old 07-29-2015, 02:49 PM
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I wonder how this will affect our SOS with Arkansas loosing two players indefinitely this upcoming season (the third is a transfer and couldn't play this year anyway). Both were supposed to be depended on a lot more this year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...orgery-charges
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Old 07-29-2015, 03:01 PM
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All this talk about if UD does this or if this happens to UD reminds me of a joke

The joke goes like this:

There was an open position for CFO at a company.
3 well qualified candidates showed up, one from Havard, one from U of Penn and one from Case Western. At the last minute a 4th candidate was added, she from the U of North Central Alexandria at Alabama (a very small select school).

One by one the 3 well qualified candidates were interviewed and failed the same question. "Given a set of numbers, how much profit did the company make?" went the test ..... The CEO was shocked.

He asked to see the only remaining candidate (she of U of NCAA). Amazingly, to everyone's surprise she was offered the job.

When asked what she had done to get the position, she said, "when I was asked to calculate how much profit the company would make with the set of numbers I was given, I answered, "How much money did you want to make? ". I was offered the position immediately!

And so ladies and gentlemen playing with a given set of numbers has no real meaning if you don't understand what the real test is about and what they who ask the question are seeking!
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  #452  
Old 07-29-2015, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
But what evidence is there that suggests UD made no attempt to do exactly as you say.

In order to schedule other teams, the other team has to want to schedule you too.

News flash: nobody wants to play us. Not even in their own gyms. Not even the good teams. Why? No need. The Power-5 teams have no incentive to risk losing non-con games when they have the safety and security of their own league to punch their ticket in. And with almost everyone going to an 18-game league season, the reasons are becoming even less relevant to play a Power-5 team. Losing at home is a killer to your RPI to just about anybody outside the RPI Top-15. So why pay double to buy Dayton when you can buy Delaware State and get exactly the ROI you want to protect your own interest?

Lets also remind ourselves that there are bills to be paid in the UD athletic department and men's basketball makes that possible. The home games are the reason the football team has uniforms and the volleyball team has volleyballs. We can cut home games for sure, but who here is willing to write a $500 check to help cover lost revenue for that lost home game so we can play Memphis on the road and keep the stripes painted at Baujan Field? Not me. And are we willing to send UD to play a one-way game at UCLA on a Thursday night (say the only available date UCLA has open) when we have to play Arkansas back in Dayton on a Saturday night? Scheduling also involved the welfare of the players, their ability to recover, travel obstacles, time schedules, classes, exams, etc. And UD's opponents must do the same.

Its hard to appreciate the complexity of scheduling and just how many balls are trying to be juggled at the same time. I think the base wouldn't be so quick to criticize if they saw the process. Not that criticism is never warranted. Some schedules are better than others. Nobody Rube Goldbergs scheduling to try to "get er done" more than UD. But the landscape of college basketball is changing and UD is on its own island in many ways: operates like a Power-5 program, is supported like a Power-5 program, plays in a facility like a Power-5 program, competes like a Power-5 program, but is not a Power-5 program.

The last part of that equation makes all the difference. Its not like BYU, New Mexico, and Creighton have it any easier or have much better luck. An two of those have FBS football money!
I hear you Chris and generally agree but our schedule is looking like an SEC (except UK and Flor) and VT of a few years ago and when those teams did not get selected, we all said too bad. Play someone on the road. This year may have been the year we needed to just play a MAC (or similar) team on the road without a reciprocal game. You pointed out Creighton and New Mexico. Look at their schedules. They played some lower level teams on the road.
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Old 07-29-2015, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
This year may have been the year we needed to just play a MAC (or similar) team on the road without a reciprocal game.
UD should never play a true road game without some kind of return especially with a team from the MAC.
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  #454  
Old 07-29-2015, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
But what evidence is there that suggests UD made no attempt to do exactly as you say.

In order to schedule other teams, the other team has to want to schedule you too.

News flash: nobody wants to play us. Not even in their own gyms. Not even the good teams. Why? No need. The Power-5 teams have no incentive to risk losing non-con games when they have the safety and security of their own league to punch their ticket in. And with almost everyone going to an 18-game league season, the reasons are becoming even less relevant to play a Power-5 team.
Quick story told to me a few years ago from a person within UD's Athletic Department that illustrates the difficulty in scheduling "elite" teams.

UD was looking for a new coach in a non-revenue sport (I think VB) and an ass't AD from UD called his colleague at Louisville to check on a reference from one of the coaches they were considering. As they wrapped up the conversation, the UD person brought up the possibility of scheduling MBB game(s). This is right after UD had just beat L'ville in back-to-back years, first in L'ville and then in Cincy. The UD employee asked about playing another "home-neutral" series. The quote from L'ville's assistant AD went something like:
"Do you have any idea what Pitino would say if I went in his office and asked about scheduling UD anywhere again? Not only would I get thrown out of his office, I would be lucky to keep my job."

Suffice to say, UD hasn't played L'ville since.
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Old 07-29-2015, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
UD should never play a true road game without some kind of return especially with a team from the MAC.
Generally I agree but with only 1 true road game on the schedule, if there ever was a year to do it, this is the year. Without it, our resume will look bad. There are a number of places that would be not too bad logistically for the players and would be good locations for fans to get to - Kent, Akron, Cleve St and do I dare add Wright St. - that would make the crowd more friendly. Heck, give the Chicago guys a chance to play in that city. As Chris said, the landscape of college basketball is changing.
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Old 07-29-2015, 04:36 PM
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New Mexico played 15 road or neutral games last year, UD will only play 14 road/neutral games.

New Mexico plays in The Pit, they annually draw about 12k or 13k for home games just like UD. NM has a great fan base, I am sure they also would like the revenue from one additional home game.

New Mexico is a team that is relevant to this debate.

Creighton is an irrelevant team to bring into this debate because Creighton doesn't have to worry about their SOS since they are in the Big East.

If you are in the p5 or BE, you can just rely on your league schedule to beef up the SOS.



NM played at Grand Canyon, at Valpo, and at New Mexico State, and they had 3 neutral games vs. BC, TAMU, and George Mason.



Valpo was #50 last year, let's play Valpo home and home. It is not too far away, very close to Chicago, and it will give UD's players from Chicago sort of a homecoming.

Valpo is usually one of the best teams in the Horizon League.

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  #457  
Old 07-29-2015, 04:44 PM
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BYU basically played one Power-5 team at home last year in Stanford. They also played Utah but they routinely play Utah so thats not a game they have to go out and sell. They also played Southern Virginia, Seattle Pacific, and Colorado School of Mines at home. Not many folks want to play in Provo in front of 20,000 Mormons.

New Mexico has released their 2015-16 schedule. Not a single Power-5 non-con team comes to The Pit. Their best name brand in that lot is Northern Iowa.

Creighton had one Power-5 home game last year in Oklahoma and exactly one Power-5 road game (Nebraska).

Dayton is not alone in the struggle to fill a home and road schedule with quality teams. Unfortunately we cannot control how the A10 affects our SOS.
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  #458  
Old 07-29-2015, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
New Mexico played 15 road or neutral games last year, UD will only play 14 road/neutral games.

New Mexico plays in The Pit, they annually draw about 12k or 13k for home games just like UD. NM has a great fan base, I am sure they also would like the revenue from one additional home game.

New Mexico is a team that is relevant to this debate.

Creighton is an irrelevant team to bring into this debate because Creighton doesn't have to worry about their SOS since they are in the Big East.

If you are in the p5 or BE, you can just rely on your league schedule to beef up the SOS.



NM played at Grand Canyon, at Valpo, and at New Mexico State, and they had 3 neutral games vs. BC, TAMU, and George Mason.



Valpo was #50 last year, let's play Valpo home and home. It is not too far away, very close to Chicago, and it will give UD's players from Chicago sort of a homecoming.

Valpo is usually one of the best teams in the Horizon League.
Last season Creighton played at Tulsa, Nebraska and North Texas.
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Old 07-29-2015, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Last season Creighton played at Tulsa, Nebraska and North Texas.
Yeah, but they only played 14 road/neutral games, they don't support my argument, so I left them out. Lol.

And besides, they are in the BE, so they are irrelevant to this debate.
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Old 07-29-2015, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Yeah, but they only played 14 road/neutral games, they don't support my argument, so I left them out. Lol.

And besides, they are in the BE, so they are irrelevant to this debate.
I was siding with you. Creighton played 3 true road games. They have a great arena that sells out. I don't think neutral games replace true road games. The preconference tourneys are a way to get games with the power 5. I understand that we can't get them at home. You need to have at least a couple of non-conference true road games on your schedule. Not having those games had hurt even borderline power 5 teams on selection Sunday.
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  #461  
Old 07-29-2015, 05:16 PM
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Actually, Valpo has been sort of hit and miss, but Northern Iowa has also been hit and miss, but that didn't stop VCU from scheduling a home and home with UNI over the last two years.

Let's adopt VCU's scheduling philosophy.

And BTW, NM actually averaged 14,571 fans per home game last year, wow, that's really solid for a non p5 school, good for 18th best attendance in the country.



http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_bask...ttend/2015.pdf
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Old 07-29-2015, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
New Mexico played 15 road or neutral games last year, UD will only play 14 road/neutral games.

New Mexico plays in The Pit, they annually draw about 12k or 13k for home games just like UD. NM has a great fan base, I am sure they also would like the revenue from one additional home game.

New Mexico is a team that is relevant to this debate.
and last year they finsihed 15-16 with no post season
I believe this year they are also playing 14 road/neutral games
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Old 07-29-2015, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
BYU basically played one Power-5 team at home last year in Stanford. They also played Utah but they routinely play Utah so thats not a game they have to go out and sell. They also played Southern Virginia, Seattle Pacific, and Colorado School of Mines at home. Not many folks want to play in Provo in front of 20,000 Mormons.

New Mexico has released their 2015-16 schedule. Not a single Power-5 non-con team comes to The Pit. Their best name brand in that lot is Northern Iowa.

Creighton had one Power-5 home game last year in Oklahoma and exactly one Power-5 road game (Nebraska).

Dayton is not alone in the struggle to fill a home and road schedule with quality teams. Unfortunately we cannot control how the A10 affects our SOS.
Regarding BYU and New Mexico. Both go to the NCAA tournament all the time, their scheduling philosophy is not hurting them.


SOS and number of away/neutral games last 5 years:

NM SOS

121, 15 a/n
38, 15 a/n
2, 15 a/n
83, 14 a/n
80, 15 a/n


BYU SOS

74, 14 a/n
24, 16 a/n
94, 15 a/n
102, 15 a/n
21, 17 a/n


Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
and last year they finsihed 15-16 with no post season
I believe this year they are also playing 14 road/neutral games
Fair enough, but NM has made the NCAA tournament 12 times since 1991 vs. 7 for UD. I'd say that NM's scheduling philosophy is not hurting them at all.





The bottom line is that several good non p5 schools play at least 15 road/neutral games every year, and it hasn't hurt them at all.

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Old 07-29-2015, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Regarding BYU and New Mexico. Both go to the NCAA tournament all the time, their scheduling philosophy is not hurting them.


SOS and number of away/neutral games last 5 years:

NM SOS

121, 15 a/n
38, 15 a/n
2, 15 a/n
83, 14 a/n
80, 15 a/n


BYU SOS

74, 14 a/n
24, 16 a/n
94, 15 a/n
102, 15 a/n
21, 17 a/n




Fair enough, but NM has made the NCAA tournament 12 times since 1991 vs. 7 for UD. I'd say that NM's scheduling philosophy is not hurting them at all.





The bottom line is that several good non p5 schools play at least 15 road/neutral games every year, and it hasn't hurt them at all.
Would be interested to see the stats since 2000. For a lot of the 90's we were playing Div III basketball
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Old 07-29-2015, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The bottom line is that several good non p5 schools play at least 15 road/neutral games every year, and it hasn't hurt them at all.
And playing 14 hasn't hurt UD. You said yourself that UD has never been left out of the NCAA due to a poor non-con SOS. And, if I may ask, why are you so concerned about UD's schedule? You said you go to many more Xavier games than you do UD games. I believe you said you went to a UD game last year for the first time in many years. And you didn't attend UD. That doesn't sound like much of a fan.
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Old 07-29-2015, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Regarding BYU and New Mexico. Both go to the NCAA tournament all the time, their scheduling philosophy is not hurting them.


SOS and number of away/neutral games last 5 years:

NM SOS

121, 15 a/n
38, 15 a/n
2, 15 a/n
83, 14 a/n
80, 15 a/n


BYU SOS

74, 14 a/n
24, 16 a/n
94, 15 a/n
102, 15 a/n
21, 17 a/n




Fair enough, but NM has made the NCAA tournament 12 times since 1991 vs. 7 for UD. I'd say that NM's scheduling philosophy is not hurting them at all.





The bottom line is that several good non p5 schools play at least 15 road/neutral games every year, and it hasn't hurt them at all.
Those schools have fbs football to make money unlike greedy UD.
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  #467  
Old 07-29-2015, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Fair enough, but NM has made the NCAA tournament 12 times since 1991 vs. 7 for UD. I'd say that NM's scheduling philosophy is not hurting them at all.
But in that time frame what was the scheduling philosophy of NW? Was the 15 A/N last year the norm or an outlier? I just did a quick look at 2000-2010 and saw what seem like a lot of years with around 12 away/neutral games

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Old 07-29-2015, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Fair enough, but NM has made the NCAA tournament 12 times since 1991 vs. 7 for UD. I'd say that NM's scheduling philosophy is not hurting them at all.
Scheduling philosophy has not kept us out in the years we did not make it since 1991. We were just bad in most of those non-NCAA appearance years. But we seem to be getting very "unbad" recently.
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Old 07-29-2015, 10:40 PM
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Regarding the whole football thing, what about Xavier when they were in the A10, along with VCU and Gonzaga now?

None of those 3 plays football.

VCU plays 15 a/n every year, and Gonzaga 2 out of the last 3 years played 15 a/n. I didn't bother to look past the past three years for Gonzaga.

X, when they were in the A10, played 15 a/n.

All 3 are in the same boat as UD, but they all play 15 a/n.

Creighton and Butler, pre-BE, both probably did 15 a/n too, I'll have to look that up.

Butler plays non scholarship fcs football like UD I think.

I don't think Creighton plays fcs or fbs scholarship football either.

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Old 07-29-2015, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
And playing 14 hasn't hurt UD. You said yourself that UD has never been left out of the NCAA due to a poor non-con SOS. And, if I may ask, why are you so concerned about UD's schedule? You said you go to many more Xavier games than you do UD games. I believe you said you went to a UD game last year for the first time in many years. And you didn't attend UD. That doesn't sound like much of a fan.
True, I did say that.

I'm concerned because I just think that the margin for error is very small...maybe lose to Iowa and get Monmouth and Alabama, maybe Arkansas has a down year, Alabama may be rebuilding, and Miami stunk last year.

Where are the OOC resume boosters? Vandy and Iowa, and that might be it. This schedule has the potential to be very weak. They might have no choice other than to win the A10 tournament in order to get a bid.

Let's hope all of the above does not happen.

Just seems misguided to insist on playing no more than 14 road/neutral games every year when practically every other solid non-p5 program in the entire country is playing at least 15 road/neutral games every year.

UD really is an extreme outlier in terms of being a solid non-p5 program that DOES NOT play at least 15 road/neutral games ever year.

As far as fanhood, I like to see all the area teams do well, that's it.



Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
But in that time frame what was the scheduling philosophy of NW? Was the 15 A/N last year the norm or an outlier? I just did a quick look at 2000-2010 and saw what seem like a lot of years with around 12 away/neutral games
I don't know, 4 out of the last 5 years they played 15 a/n, I assume that is the norm for them, but I'm only guessing.

Last edited by ud2; 07-29-2015 at 11:08 PM..
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Old 07-30-2015, 07:03 AM
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If UD is going to get left out, playing 15 road/neutral isn't getting them in. Even in this odd year with only 1 road game, they will play at least 14 road/neutral.
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  #472  
Old 07-30-2015, 10:01 AM
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Let's not act like that 14th A/N game before the A10 tourney has added anything the past two seasons.
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Old 07-30-2015, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
I love kenpom's site and visit religiously. How efficient a team is on either side of the ball should have 0 bearing on which teams are included or where they are seeded.

Now if they want to get on board with Fairness in quality wins then I'm all for it.
Makes me wonder how much of the shortening of the shot clock was really aimed at making the game better? Or was it the fact that the changing metrics will make more of the power 5 teams look better?
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Old 07-30-2015, 01:26 PM
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Just seems like the UD scheduling model is behind the times. All the good non p5 schools nowadays play at least 15 away/neutral games. I'm sure that the selection committee tracks and pays attention to this stuff. Just seems like the current scheduling model is old/tired/worn out/outdated, UD needs a fresh and new scheduling model.

UD 's current scheduling model is never going to lead to a good seed for UD unless they go something like 15-3 or better in the A10, the SOS is never going to be all that great, there aren't enough good OOC opportunities. Just feel like the program is being held back by this dated approach to scheduling.
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Old 07-30-2015, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Just seems like the UD scheduling model is behind the times. All the good non p5 schools nowadays play at least 15 away/neutral games. I'm sure that the selection committee tracks and pays attention to this stuff. Just seems like the current scheduling model is old/tired/worn out/outdated, UD needs a fresh and new scheduling model.

UD 's current scheduling model is never going to lead to a good seed for UD unless they go something like 15-3 or better in the A10, the SOS is never going to be all that great, there aren't enough good OOC opportunities. Just feel like the program is being held back by this dated approach to scheduling.
First, thanks for repeating yourself AGAIN. I didn't quite get it the first several times you said it. Also, you have changed your argument. First you said the scheduling model was keeping UD out of the NCAA. Now you simply are saying it is hurting their seeding. Anyway, adding one road game as you suggest isn't going to do that much to the SOS, as I believe was illustrated above.
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  #476  
Old 07-30-2015, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross View Post
Let's not act like that 14th A/N game before the A10 tourney has added anything the past two seasons.
2014-2015: 4-pt W @Miami (#230)
2013-2014: 6-pt L @Illinois State (#136)

As always, take care of our business, and we are fine.
I wish I would have wrote this. This statement is everything. And yet, that is who people are begging for UD to play. At #230....At #136..."any MAC team" "Cleveland St." It is really just unbelievable. Take care of business at home and the success will continue.
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Old 07-30-2015, 04:44 PM
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Sure, if we added another A/N game that we can control it would help our SOS but I really don't think that is what is going to make or break us. Our dialogue should be directed at how poor a job the A-10 is doing in scheduling games between teams that would boost the number of A-10 teams into the tournament.

Our pod is absolute garbage and is what is holding us back. The A-10 has done nothing to help its top teams by using this pod system instead of a system that schedules the top teams against each other more, which would boost their respective SOS's. Playing VCU, Richmond, Davidson, Rhode Island etc. more often would give us what we need but instead we are stuck with our crappy pod.

Add on that, the fact that none of the top teams are scheduled to play in the "ACC-A10 challenge" in Barclay's and it really makes you wonder what the hell is going on in the league office. More games between our top teams would garner more TV interest and help the teams boost their schedule for the committee in the process making the whole extra away game a non-factor, or at least a lesser one.
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  #478  
Old 07-31-2015, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
I wish I would have wrote this. This statement is everything. And yet, that is who people are begging for UD to play. At #230....At #136..."any MAC team" "Cleveland St." It is really just unbelievable. Take care of business at home and the success will continue.
Why not just win 4 games in Brooklyn and nothing else matters?

The reality is that teams have been snubbed for playing a crappy non-conference schedule.

The 10 biggest Selection Sunday snubs in NCAA tournament history

Virginia Tech, 2010 (23-7):

Of all the years Seth Greenberg had to complain about his Hokies missing out on an invite, the 2010 season was the most egregious. Virginia Tech finished ahead of at-large teams Wake Forest and Georgia Tech in the ACC standings, but were felled, as usual, by a weak non-conference SOS.

Syracuse, 2007 (22-10):

Is this the most famous snub in NCAA tournament history? If so, it's because of the reaction it earned from coach Jim Boeheim. "You look at the numbers, and it's hard to believe," Boeheim said. "But it's done, there's no use in talking about it," he continued, still talking about it. "It doesn't do any good to get angry," he finished, angrily.

Granted VT's non-conference schedule was really really weak - 339 our of 347.
Syracuse only played one road game non-conference and that was in Buffalo against Canisius. Neither team played a pre-conference tourney.

I am a firm believer that is has not been our non-conference play that has held us out of the tourney but with this year's schedule we are on a slippery slope.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:46 AM
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[QUOTE=CE80;415195]Why not just win 4 games in Brooklyn and nothing else matters?

QUOTE]

I'm not going to rehash everything that has been said above regarding going on the road to play marginal teams (including with no return game) but I will chime in on this.

UD has quite literally never won the A10 Championship outside of its arena. Taking care of business at home over the course of the season is a reasonable approach. Saying we should just win the A10 tournament is not exactly reasonable.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:46 AM
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I just don't think its as complicated as everyone is making it out to be. Last year, although our wins were clearly undervalued by being the last team in, we need to win more games against stronger opponents. UConn, Arkansas, Davidson, UMass. VCU was a big win, but at a time when they were being questioned... And you cannot lose @GW, @ Duquesne and @ Lasalle in the last 4-5 weeks of the season. Yes the margin of error is thin, but you need to win more of the games against the good teams on the schedule....do better than 8-7 vs the top 100 and eliminate the sub-100 losses. Don't get me wrong, especially under the circumstances, we did an amazing job accomplishing everything we did last year. I'm just using this as an illustration that you still have to execute within the schdule you have. Even with a weaker than desired schedule last year, it was enough for the MBB team to achieve what they wanted. Clearly UD is doing everything they can to schedule good teams under the Athletics model they have and the team is doing enough with it to make some noise. if they want more room (via seeding) to achieve their goals, they have to do more with the schedule.
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Old 07-31-2015, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
UD has quite literally never won the A10 Championship outside of its arena. Taking care of business at home over the course of the season is a reasonable approach. Saying we should just win the A10 tournament is not exactly reasonable.
Hopefully this is a new era - a couple of years ago you could say it was not reasonable to think UD could win more than one game in the NCAA tournament as they had not done so in over 2 decades
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  #482  
Old 07-31-2015, 11:18 AM
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According to Twitter the last buy game is William & Mary. Not the worst team in the world, but was hoping for better.
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Old 07-31-2015, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
According to Twitter the last buy game is William & Mary. Not the worst team in the world, but was hoping for better.
I was smoking with the boys upstairs
When I heard about the whole affair
I said oh no
William and Mary won't do

Now let's play the schedule and see what happens.
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  #484  
Old 07-31-2015, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
According to Twitter the last buy game is William & Mary. Not the worst team in the world, but was hoping for better.
Looks like they lost about 28% of the minutes from the players that were in the CAA championship last year. One of those was by far their best player and 2nd round NBA draft pick. The CAA has been pretty bad lately but I really think this is an OK game. With the team they return I think they can still rack up some wins in conference and hang out around 150 RPI or so.
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Old 07-31-2015, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
According to Twitter the last buy game is William & Mary. Not the worst team in the world, but was hoping for better.
I think this is a nice addition to the schedule. W&M is likely to win a lot of games this year. They will have a fairly tough out of conference schedule, playing NC State and Virginia among others. They ought to do well in the CAA. I think this game is on par with Chattanooga and North Florida, probably the best of those three. Comparing those three games to Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and G Tech from last year looks pretty favorable, i.e. the three games this year look better on paper than those three.
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  #486  
Old 08-01-2015, 12:20 AM
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I like the W&M game...they are on a quest to get their first NCAA bid ever, they have been close the last few years, they are driven...the buy games seem pretty good this year, I am happy with that aspect of things...I feel better not being so negative with this post.


Rpi last 6 years...58, 228, 298, 270, 121, 93...93 was last year.

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  #487  
Old 08-01-2015, 04:44 PM
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I looked at the RPI's from last year of our non-con opponents this coming year (We ended up 29 in the RPI last year):

282 Southeast Missouri State
86 Alabama
99 William and Mary
40 Iowa (neutral floor)
10 or 178 Notre Dame or Monmouth (neutral floor)
12, 28, 86 or 198 Witchita State, X, Alabama, or USC (neutral floor)
168 North Florida
88 @ Vandy
113 Chattanooga
294 Furman
231 Miami (OH)
23 Arkansas

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  #488  
Old 08-01-2015, 05:25 PM
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IMO Vanderbilt will be significantly better, Arkansas will be significantly worse. Wash.

Thats why they play the games
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Old 08-01-2015, 05:51 PM
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Surprised Furman was that bad...
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Old 08-02-2015, 12:42 AM
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Just comparing the five buy games last year vs. this year.



282 Southeast Missouri State
99 William and Mary
168 North Florida
113 Chattanooga
294 Furman

Average: 191


Alabama A&M 331
UIC 298
Eastern Michigan 139
Bowling Green 107
Boston U. 198

Average: 215


So, they have potentially improved things 24 points this year.
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Old 08-02-2015, 12:58 PM
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[QUOTE=Phi Psi Flyer '09;415207]
Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Why not just win 4 games in Brooklyn and nothing else matters?
QUOTE]

UD has quite literally never won the A10 Championship outside of its arena. Taking care of business at home over the course of the season is a reasonable approach. Saying we should just win the A10 tournament is not exactly reasonable.
It is more reasonable because we return 6 veterans who finished 2nd last year. And they are more experienced in every way--league, A10 tournament, and post-season. And we are deeper with a potentially helping bench and a good transfer. And we have an easier pod with some tough league opponents at the Arena rather than on the road.

We should be better this year.

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Old 08-02-2015, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Just comparing the five buy games last year vs. this year.



282 Southeast Missouri State
99 William and Mary
168 North Florida
113 Chattanooga
294 Furman

Average: 191


Alabama A&M 331
UIC 298
Eastern Michigan 139
Bowling Green 107
Boston U. 198

Average: 215


So, they have potentially improved things 24 points this year.
According to Joe Lunardi Kansas tries to schedule no 201+ RPI teams and tries to schedule their gimme games in the 101-200 range. This makes a huge difference in RPI whereas the difficulty in beating #150 versus #300 is small. They do this to maximize their seed, obviously not to make the NCAA.

I know the UD AD and team have an almost impossible task, but I do not like either the Furman game or the Southwest Missouri State game. I literary rather play both games as exhibitions so we have the revenue but do not have them hurt our RPI.

Saying that, RPI is not as important in where you end up in ranking and more important in ranking those you beat and whether they are top 50 or top 100. We need more top 50 and 100 games.
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Old 08-02-2015, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
We need more top 50 and 100 games.

But, remember, those teams don't want to play UD. They will, however, play Buffalo, Cincinnati, Northern Iowa, Temple, VCU, and Wright State.
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  #494  
Old 08-02-2015, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
According to Joe Lunardi Kansas tries to schedule no 201+ RPI teams and tries to schedule their gimme games in the 101-200 range. This makes a huge difference in RPI whereas the difficulty in beating #150 versus #300 is small. They do this to maximize their seed, obviously not to make the NCAA.

I know the UD AD and team have an almost impossible task, but I do not like either the Furman game or the Southwest Missouri State game. I literary rather play both games as exhibitions so we have the revenue but do not have them hurt our RPI.

Saying that, RPI is not as important in where you end up in ranking and more important in ranking those you beat and whether they are top 50 or top 100. We need more top 50 and 100 games.
I agree - I understand a lot of teams may not want to play at UD but have a hard time accepting that it's that difficult to get a buy game with teams in the 100s such as Indiana State, Eastern Kentucky or Oakland.
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Old 08-02-2015, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross View Post
Let's not act like that 14th A/N game before the A10 tourney has added anything the past two seasons.
2014-2015: 4-pt W @Miami (#230)
2013-2014: 6-pt L @Illinois State (#136)

As always, take care of our business, and we are fine.
Illinois State recently has been very good some years, and Miami has had some good teams through the years.

Last edited by ud2; 08-02-2015 at 05:02 PM..
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Old 08-02-2015, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
I know the UD AD and team have an almost impossible task, but I do not like either the Furman game or the Southwest Missouri State game. I literary rather play both games as exhibitions so we have the revenue but do not have them hurt our RPI.
Southeast Missouri is the home opener. 99% of the college basketball world schedules a creampuff in the season opener. All you want to do in game 1 is win. Remember IPFW?? It was almost a calamity. We were 2 seconds from that game keeping us out of the NCAAs. And Dayton must play SE Missouri on a Friday. You have to play Alabama on Tuesday in the ESPN Tip-Off -- likely sometime in the afternoon. Short turnaround to get ready for this game AND YOU HAVE TO BEAT ALABAMA ON TV. Worst possible thing you can do is go into the Alabama game 0-1 and questioning yourself. So the SE Missouri game is spot-on in what we need for that date.

As for Furman, that game is December 19th -- directly in the middle of exam season for most colleges including UD. Scheduling flexibility is extremely limited because of this. There's a reason the Arkansas game is not played until December 30th -- exams are over and UD only has to focus on basketball. Again, last thing you want is some mongo game right in the middle of exams, which is why Furman is book-ended by Chattanooga and Miami and why Vanderbilt pre-dates all of these games.

If UD fans had their way, they would be sending these college kids to play Duke on the road two nights before exam week and then off to UCLA to play that Saturday thereafter.
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  #497  
Old 08-02-2015, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Illinois State recently has been very good some years, and Miami has had some good teams through the years.
Good?! Miami O was our dread in the 60s!
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  #498  
Old 08-02-2015, 08:07 PM
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ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Southeast Missouri is the home opener. 99% of the college basketball world schedules a creampuff in the season opener. All you want to do in game 1 is win. Remember IPFW?? It was almost a calamity. We were 2 seconds from that game keeping us out of the NCAAs. And Dayton must play SE Missouri on a Friday. You have to play Alabama on Tuesday in the ESPN Tip-Off -- likely sometime in the afternoon. Short turnaround to get ready for this game AND YOU HAVE TO BEAT ALABAMA ON TV. Worst possible thing you can do is go into the Alabama game 0-1 and questioning yourself. So the SE Missouri game is spot-on in what we need for that date.

As for Furman, that game is December 19th -- directly in the middle of exam season for most colleges including UD. Scheduling flexibility is extremely limited because of this. There's a reason the Arkansas game is not played until December 30th -- exams are over and UD only has to focus on basketball. Again, last thing you want is some mongo game right in the middle of exams, which is why Furman is book-ended by Chattanooga and Miami and why Vanderbilt pre-dates all of these games.

If UD fans had their way, they would be sending these college kids to play Duke on the road two nights before exam week and then off to UCLA to play that Saturday thereafter.
I just fundamentally disagree with playing any 201+ games. We have 6/7 players with the most minutes returning. Playing at home our 1st game, we really think there is materially more risk of losing to projected #300 Southeast Missouri versus a projected #150 like Oakland or Holy Cross? I simply do not believe it -- IPFW was an anomoly. According to sagarin, assuming Dayton is about the 30th best team and playing at home, we should beat #150 by 16 and #300 by 23. I don't have time to do the analysis, but would guess we win like 90%+ versus #150 and 95%+ versus #300.

And yes I rather play at Duke on the 19th rather than home versus Furman. Zero upside with Furman and zero downside at Duke. Exams are done on the 18th so no impact to academics. Btw, Duke is playing Utah on the 19th -- Utah's exams finish on the 18th like Dayton's but they somehow can travel across the country to play Duke. Utah plays @Witchita State on the 12th right before exams and at Madison Square Garden versus Duke right after exams on the 19th. Sounds like the Utah fans are basically getting what you are deriding Chris, @Witchita 2 nights before exams (your @Duke) and across the country to play versus Duke in Madison Square Garden 1 day after exams (your @UCLA).
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  #499  
Old 08-02-2015, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Illinois State recently has been very good some years, and Miami has had some good teams through the years.
Your point? The committee doesn't care that they had good seasons in the past.
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:44 PM
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[QUOTE=CE80;415195]Why not just win 4 games in Brooklyn and nothing else matters?

I would prefer to be seeded, #1 would be nice, and only have to win three
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