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01-10-2016, 11:07 AM
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01-10-2016, 11:25 AM
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General of the Air Force
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The Bubble, it's what we do.
Last year avoided the bad loss but did not have the big win. This year it is back to normal, big win combined with bad loss.
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01-10-2016, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
The Bubble, it's what we do.
Last year avoided the bad loss but did not have the big win. This year it is back to normal, big win combined with bad loss.
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Dayton lost @ Dukes last year. Bad loss, not as quite as bad as @ LaSalle, but close. And yes, back to the bubble again.
Need Vandy and Monmouth to sneak into the top 50. Need two A-10 teams to sneak into the top 50 like GW, RI, VCU, Davidson, or St. Joe's & beat them.
Right now, only 1 team Dayton has beat is guaranteed top 50 which is Iowa and only 1 team Dayton lost to is guaranteed top 50 which is Xavier. A bunch of other teams are on the bubble for top 50. So 1-1 versus 1-3 last year.
Need the other teams to get into the top 50 (yes they are now, but rpiforecast.com has a lot of them likely moving to 51-100).
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01-10-2016, 12:11 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by CE80
The Bubble, it's what we do...
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I think you are right..
I mean, at least I hope so.. right now I'd take bubble and be pretty thankful for that.
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01-10-2016, 12:42 PM
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I'm re-converting to Catholicism, and commencing Lenten practice early. I'm giving up fandom.
Don't have to worry about giving alms or charity to the poor, the Flyers have already done that in spades.
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01-10-2016, 12:56 PM
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I'm on a roll: The Flyers are still the best team in the A-10, so-
What does that speak of the A-10?
I'm actually having fun here. Bracketology? WOW! Kendall Pollard will help.
I have no idea how to assess where we'll end up. Not prognosticating, but I'll acquiesce to 10, 11, 12 seed (whatever, so long as we're in).
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01-10-2016, 01:34 PM
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Right now, A-10 is a 1-2 bid league. Dayton and GW comfortably in now, but extremely limited opportunities for good top 50 wins the rest of the way so profiles will get worse week after week and that is with winning a ton of games and not losing to more bad teams like St. Louis and LaSalle.
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01-11-2016, 09:39 AM
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The LaSalle loss hurt and was a huge hit to the RPI/SOS, but Lunardi only dropped us one seed line:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/195
Dayton a 6 seed, GW a 10 seed, and VCU enters the bracket as an 11 seed
We can recover from the LaSalle loss with a 2-0 week against Davidson and GW and get right back up to a 4-5 seed
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01-11-2016, 11:10 AM
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General
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The RPI means nothing if the Flyers experience another loss or two like LaSalle. There is no sugar-coating the performance of the players or the coaching staff against LaSalle - it was horrible...and I am an Archie advocate!
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01-11-2016, 11:38 AM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by CE80
The Bubble, it's what we do.
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There's a T-Shirt.
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01-18-2016, 11:37 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Get by Texas and then a showdown with the other Miller.
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01-20-2016, 12:36 PM
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From the "3rd most accurate bracketologist for those with 9+ years of experience"
http://www.bracketwag.com/
Has (6) UD vs (11) UCLA. In Anaheim. Yeah, that would suck and I could totally see that happening.
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01-20-2016, 01:01 PM
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Just off the Jet
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If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
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01-20-2016, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFanatic
If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
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Good catch, they would be in the Anaheim region but in NYC. Got it.
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01-20-2016, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFanatic
If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
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That would be almost as bad an UD playing in Columbus.
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01-20-2016, 01:52 PM
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If the Flyers make the tourney they will be underseeded, that is a given.
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01-20-2016, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass
If the Flyers make the tourney they will be underseeded, that is a given.
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I do not believe that. UD will get a fair seed this year.
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01-20-2016, 05:14 PM
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UD was not underseeded last year according to http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Remember, the Flyers were 1-3 in top 50 play for the season last year. After reflecting on it, I don't think we were underseeded and in fact were lucky to get in with a 1-3 top 50 record.
Neil and Archie addressed this with the schedule (Iowa game was crucial) and so far this year, Dayton is 5-1 top 50 games and 8-2 top 100.
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01-20-2016, 05:17 PM
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I started another thread on this a couple days ago, but really belongs here.
I love Dance card for picking NCAA teams using an algorithm trying to mimic what the committee would do. Right now, Dayton #7, not a 7 seed, the 7th most likely to make the NCAA. Last year, Dance Card had Dayton 2nd team out.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
NBC has Dayton a #6.
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.c...s-field-of-68/
CBS/Palm has Dayton a #5.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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01-20-2016, 05:22 PM
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01-20-2016, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
UD was not underseeded last year according to http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Remember, the Flyers were 1-3 in top 50 play for the season last year. After reflecting on it, I don't think we were underseeded and in fact were lucky to get in with a 1-3 top 50 record.
Neil and Archie addressed this with the schedule (Iowa game was crucial) and so far this year, Dayton is 5-1 top 50 games and 8-2 top 100.
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That is the thing, what is the magic formula? Was it the sos? Or the top 50 or top 100 record? Or something else? Or all of the above? Sos is much better this year.
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01-21-2016, 07:43 AM
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I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.
We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
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01-21-2016, 08:22 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by 224
I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.
We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
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I'm just glad it didn't translate to an NIT appearance. They had Dayton on the wrong side of the bubble in 2015. By far their most misses last year.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm
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01-21-2016, 08:28 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Cue Jim Mora.
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01-21-2016, 08:41 AM
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Major General
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Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.
If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
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01-21-2016, 08:55 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.
If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
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I think Vandy getting to sub 50 is most important (sub 50 road win and ooc to boot). Next would be Chatt (make loss a sub 50).
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01-21-2016, 10:21 AM
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Alabama and Davidson are more likely to fade further from Top50 than climb into it.
Posted via Mobile Device
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01-21-2016, 10:24 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by CE80
I think Vandy getting to sub 50 is most important (sub 50 road win and ooc to boot). Next would be Chatt (make loss a sub 50).
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Actually, Vandy has been a major disappointment. They seem to have a wealth of talent but they just can't put it together.
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01-21-2016, 10:26 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by UDDoug
Alabama and Davidson are more likely to fade further from Top50 than climb into it.
Posted via Mobile Device
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I'll take Vandy and Chatt < 50; Alabama and Davidson > 50 and William & Mary = 50
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01-21-2016, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.
If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
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Based on rpiforecast, records needed for top 50 (may need an additional win depending on everything else)
Alabama 9-4
Chatanooga 10-2
Davidson 8-4
Vanderbilt 8-5
William and Mary 8-4
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01-21-2016, 03:44 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.
If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
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I have NO hope for Alabama, though some wins against So Carolina, kentucky or Florida would help.
I have hope for William & Mary, Chattanooga, and possibly Davidson. Though more down on Davidson as they think their weaknesses have been exposed.
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01-21-2016, 03:52 PM
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General
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Chatt plays 4 lower rip teams next. Then have Furman and Mercer coming up.
William and Mary plays Hofstra this Saturday. i know as i am attending. A win there helps and whoever can dominate the CAA the next 3 to 5 weeks, as the top teams are all around 4-2 in conference. So W & M has opportunities.
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01-22-2016, 10:58 PM
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01-22-2016, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 224
I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.
We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
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Yes, but if Dayton should have been left out, they are by definition over-seeded when they make the tourney.
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01-24-2016, 12:35 PM
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http://bracketmatrix.com/
We are a 5. Teams that are behind us include Michigan, Butler, Florida, Indiana, Gonzaga, Pitt, and even Duke.
Yes, I know it is a poll of polls. Yes, I know we have to take care of business and keep winning.
Still, it is nice that as we head into February we are getting a lot of attention. Feels good.
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01-24-2016, 01:11 PM
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01-24-2016, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
http://bracketmatrix.com/
We are a 5. Teams that are behind us include Michigan, Butler, Florida, Indiana, Gonzaga, Pitt, and even Duke.
Yes, I know it is a poll of polls. Yes, I know we have to take care of business and keep winning.
Still, it is nice that as we head into February we are getting a lot of attention. Feels good.
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Amen. Also nice that we're not only doing well in the popularity polls but also in the analytics--currently #7 OVERALL in Coleman's Dance Card ( http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm). His numbers suggest that several currently ranked teams are being exposed (Butler, South Carolina) or about to be (Indiana).
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01-25-2016, 09:58 AM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/209
Joe's latest bracket drops us down a line from a 6 seed to a 7 seed after going 2-0 on the week, both road wins. What a joke. GW a 10 seed and VCU an 11 seed. SJU is the First Team Out.
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01-25-2016, 10:30 AM
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Drop from a 6 to 7 can be as little as one spot in the S-curve. Not a big deal.
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01-25-2016, 10:38 AM
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I don't care about rankings or projected seed now. That will take care of itself when season is over. I am all about winning the A10 regular season title. For that reason the Lasalle loss will bug me until vcu loses.
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01-25-2016, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug
Drop from a 6 to 7 can be as little as one spot in the S-curve. Not a big deal.
Posted via Mobile Device
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It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
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01-25-2016, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23
It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
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I agree.
10 RPI, SOS 15, 4-1 vs top 50 RPI, 10-2 vs Top 100, 10-2 in last 12, 4-2 against his projected 68 team field and best win #7RPI Iowa (projected #2).
But take it all with a grain of salt, this is just the opinion of 1. We went 2-0 on the road this week ( SBU is a quality win) and dropped a line. USC went 0-2 and stayed a 5.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-25-2016, 11:14 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23
irregardless
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I don't not care, as long as we win with a victory in the NCAA tourney
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01-25-2016, 11:20 AM
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Doesn't Lunardi always update his bracket at the last minute before Selection Sunday to fall in line with what everybody else is saying? I don't follow bracketology closely, but Jerry Palm at CBS seems to be more realistic, and I think he has UD as a 5 seed now.
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01-25-2016, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Doesn't Lunardi always update his bracket at the last minute before Selection Sunday to fall in line with what everybody else is saying? I don't follow bracketology closely, but Jerry Palm at CBS seems to be more realistic, and I think he has UD as a 5 seed now.
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7 seed playing Valpo
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01-25-2016, 11:45 AM
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Lunardi ,who had us in the tourney solid last year. We know how that worked, we barely made it
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01-25-2016, 11:46 AM
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Lunardi has been accused of that in the past, true or not I don't know, but there was a specific team that I saw mentioned in a thread somewhere that was added to his bracket in the last hour that many seemed to indicate he has an inside source and added them to his bracket at the last minute knowing that they were in the field.
Its all for fun right now anyways, nobody is truely a lock at this point anyways. Good for discussion, good to compare various sites and good for giving the common fan (if not the team) a rough idea of where they stand and what they need to accomplish moving forward if they want to dance or get a better seed. I don't know if he pays better attention moving forward, I know he's admitted that he's placed certain teams in the same area of the bracket before to generate conversation, but Lunardi's placement of UD isn't possible since they already played X and the committee has stated that they try to avoid rematches prior to the elite 8. If UD were a 7 seed, they'd be opposite another 2 seed, so it could be as simple as moving UD down a notch hoping the potential UD-X rematch would generate a few more clicks.
FWIW, Palm has both UD & VCU as a 5 seed.
Last edited by Medford; 01-25-2016 at 11:48 AM..
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01-25-2016, 01:44 PM
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01-25-2016, 01:55 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Actually #13. SMU is listed ahead of UD.
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01-25-2016, 02:13 PM
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General of the Air Force
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I saw an interview that Katz had with the selection committee chair a couple of days ago and the chairman stated that the OOC SOS and record would play a significant factor this year. He indicated that the committee had begun giving it more weight the past few years and would continue that trend this year. I think there are going to be some surprises based upon weak OOC's.
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01-25-2016, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23
It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
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It is indeed a drop from #24 to #25. Problem with next 4 games. Lose and drop a lot or win and best case neutral but likely drop.
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01-25-2016, 04:55 PM
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01-25-2016, 04:56 PM
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01-25-2016, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
Lunardi has been accused of that in the past, true or not I don't know, but there was a specific team that I saw mentioned in a thread somewhere that was added to his bracket in the last hour that many seemed to indicate he has an inside source and added them to his bracket at the last minute knowing that they were in the field.
Its all for fun right now anyways, nobody is truely a lock at this point anyways. Good for discussion, good to compare various sites and good for giving the common fan (if not the team) a rough idea of where they stand and what they need to accomplish moving forward if they want to dance or get a better seed. I don't know if he pays better attention moving forward, I know he's admitted that he's placed certain teams in the same area of the bracket before to generate conversation, but Lunardi's placement of UD isn't possible since they already played X and the committee has stated that they try to avoid rematches prior to the elite 8. If UD were a 7 seed, they'd be opposite another 2 seed, so it could be as simple as moving UD down a notch hoping the potential UD-X rematch would generate a few more clicks.
FWIW, Palm has both UD & VCU as a 5 seed.
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They only try to avoid rematches for the Round of 64. They used to avoid conference match ups until the Elite Eight, but that's not even the case anymore unless the teams played each other twice during the season and again in the conference tournament. X and UD could absolutely meet up in the round of 32. The committee would not avoid that.
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01-25-2016, 06:49 PM
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Good articles. Notice the committee chair again mentions the importance of the OOC.
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01-25-2016, 11:16 PM
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If you take the blind Pepsi Challenge, Dayton is a #3 or #4 seed. Thats what the math clearly spells out. And I wouldnt doubt that bracketologists would have UD higher than #6 or #7 had they been blindfolded.
But they arent. And they pull stuff out of their butt like "the eye test" which is more or less another term for "I have my own reasons I cannot clearly articulate that contradict the mathematics."
Nobody at the NCAA Mock Selection could clearly spell out what "eye test" was either. More or less a hem/haw answer.
South Carolina is ranked #22 this week. How many teams in the RPI Top-50 have they slayed? That would be zero, Chris. Their SOS? #203.
Were South Carolina named Dayton, Dayton wouldn't even be in the "Next 4 Out" list.
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01-27-2016, 12:01 AM
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Bubble teams
Comparing Jerry Palm & Joe Lunardi Jan 26 '16:
Last Four Byes - Joe Lunardi
Colorado (Palm 7 seed)
Gonzaga (Palm last 4 in)
Butler (Palm 9 seed)
George Washington (Palm 10 seed)
Last Four In - Joe Lunardi
Cincinnati (Palm first 4 out)
Washington (Palm first 4 out)
Clemson (Palm no mention)
LSU (Palm no mention)
Last Four In - Jerry Palm
Florida (Lunardi 9 seed)
Gonzaga (Lunardi 9 seed)
Connecticut (Lunardi 9 seed)
Saint Joseph's (Lunardi first 4 out)
First Four Out - Joe Lunardi
Saint Joseph's (Palm first 4 in)
Texas Tech (Palm 9 seed)
Seton Hall (Palm 10 seed)
Florida State (Palm 10 seed)
First Four Out - Jerry Palm
Washington (Lunardi last 4 in)
UCLA (Lunardi 11seed)
Kansas State (Lunardi no mention)
Cincinnati (Lunardi last 4 in)
Next Out - Joe Lunardi
Syracuse (Palm no mention)
Stanford (Palm no mention)
Georgetown (Palm no mention)
Oregon State (Palm 9 seed)
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01-27-2016, 09:12 AM
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A positive "eye test" is applied to a team from a Big 5 Conference.
The BCS runs the NCAA.
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01-27-2016, 09:19 AM
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With no dominant team(s) this year, smaller conferences should be scared. With everyone beating up on each other, the BE, B10, ACC and B12 are going to be very well represented.
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01-27-2016, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo
With no dominant team(s) this year, smaller conferences should be scared. With everyone beating up on each other, the BE, B10, ACC and B12 are going to be very well represented.
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This year will be no different than every other year. The traditional one bid conferences will get their one bid. There will be the same discussion about who is more deserving. A Valpo that lost in their conference final that has a 28RPI and 1-1 against the top 50 or a Indiana with their 40 RPI and 2-6 against the top 50.
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01-27-2016, 09:41 AM
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Blind Resume test. Team A-overall record 17-3. RPI 12. Record against top 25 RPI 0-2. Record against top 50 0-3. Record against top 100 6-3. SOS 39. 11-0 vs 100+.
Team B- 16-3. RPI 10. Top 25 1-1. Top 50 5-2. Top 100 9-2. SOS 17. 7-1 vs 100+.
Obviously, a big discrepancy in resumes. We all know who Team B is. Guess Team A.
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01-27-2016, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Blind Resume test. Team A-overall record 17-3. RPI 12. Record against top 25 RPI 0-2. Record against top 50 0-3. Record against top 100 6-3. SOS 39. 11-0 vs 100+.
Team B- 16-3. RPI 10. Top 25 1-1. Top 50 5-2. Top 100 9-2. SOS 17. 7-1 vs 100+.
Obviously, a big discrepancy in resumes. We all know who Team B is. Guess Team A.
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Maryland?
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01-27-2016, 09:52 AM
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I did not look. I have had my eye on both Maryland and Indiana. Neither has an NCAA worthy resume - that is if they were in the Horizon and not he Big 10. The Big 10 had a number of teams that are just not that good and that is who they have been feasting on since conference play started.
Let's see what they do in their next 10 Big 10 games. After last nights loss to a not so good Wisc team, Indiana plays 6 against the <50 RPI teams and Maryland plays 5.
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01-27-2016, 10:15 AM
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CE80- Bingo, you win. These resumes aren't even close. The Flers should be at least 3 seed lines above Maryland in anyone's bracket.
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01-27-2016, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
This year will be no different than every other year. The traditional one bid conferences will get their one bid. There will be the same discussion about who is more deserving. A Valpo that lost in their conference final that has a 28RPI and 1-1 against the top 50 or a Indiana with their 40 RPI and 2-6 against the top 50.
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And because Indiana has twice as many top 50 wins, they are obviously the better team.. (See Texas from last year).
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01-27-2016, 11:02 AM
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Every year they say the bubble is weak. This year will be no different. What I do think will be different is that the bubble teams will be a much larger group. It will be interesting to see if Dance Card has more teams grouped closely together above and below the bubble burst line.
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01-27-2016, 11:30 AM
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Something to think about....
-Oklahoma played at Memphis, at Hawaii (albeit during a tournament) and played I think a total of five OOC games away from home, and only played three buy games (I think they go back to Oral Roberts next year)
-Michigan State played at Oakland and at Northeastern. The Oakland game was in the NBA Arena because Oakland moved it there to increase ticket sales, but it was still Oakland's home game. They played six OOC games away from home.
Creighton actually went to Loyola IL.
BYU went to Long Beach State, and once again played several OOC games away from home. I think it was seven in total.
LSU went to College of Charleston and Houston.
Stanford went to Saint Mary's.
So, all six of these teams are what you could probably call brand name programs. All played at least one OOC road game against a team from a conference that isn't considered to be among the power conferences.
That's interesting.
You know what else is interesting??
They all have an athletic director that's on the selection committee, and were also on last year's selection committee.
So, why would all these schools feel compelled to schedule an OOC road game like the ones they scheduled??
Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
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01-27-2016, 11:37 AM
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A friend of mine who is an IU grad makes a good point I think. Bubble teams should almost never come from P5 conferences. Why? Because we already know how good they are. They've already played 5 games against top 50 schools, and proven they're not good enough.
Take the team from the non-P5 conference who did not get to play 3 top-50 games on their home court and let's find out how good they are, because we really don't know.
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01-27-2016, 11:42 AM
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When we were discussing scheduling, I had said that since we were having trouble getting the kind of home and home we wanted and were kind of forced into starting the Alabama series on the road, this was the year that we should/could schedule a MAC like team on the road even if it was only a 1 time thing. Our only true OOC road game was at Vandy. I think for the most part the majority thought I was nuts. Good thing we won at Vandy. I do believe in the past, teams got penalized for not leaving home for a true OOC road game.
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01-27-2016, 12:29 PM
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I would have considered filling the slot we did not schedule with an away game at say Northern Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky... One time one way game.
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01-27-2016, 12:50 PM
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As long as we win out at home and only pick up 2 or 3 losses on the road at SJU, Richmond, or RI, we are in really good shape. A lot depends on how the top 50 RPI record falls, but even if some teams slip to the 51-65 range, I think most of us will be surprised by the committee's seeding, in a good way.
Our 1-3 record against the top 50 last year and mediocre OOC just about cost us a bid. That certainly isn't going to be the case this season. Just avoid the landmines from here on out and make it to the finals of the A10 tournament and we will be a 4-5 seed easily.
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01-27-2016, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug
I would have considered filling the slot we did not schedule with an away game at say Northern Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky... One time one way game.
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You want to pay to go play a game at 215 RPI EKU or 260 RPI NKU? This is the exact kind of thinking that can tank an entire season.
2012-2013 Iowa is a great example. Look at that OOC. Kept them out of the tournament.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/schedule/Iowa
That point was made by BPredict on Twitter, who is a good source for RPI/Computer ranking discussion.
Dayton's scheduling was literally perfect this season. If the idiot committee puts us on the 7 line when we deserve a 4 then there's nothing we can do about it. Traveling to Eastern/Northern Kentucky would not change that.
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01-27-2016, 01:12 PM
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Sure the schedule worked out great this year but the results from playing those games had a real big impact too. I think the schedule makers agreed that only 1 true ooc road game is not ideal. They didn't like what was available to them. Everyone points to the Iowa win as huge and it was but the Vandy win may be just as big. Lose at Vandy and another game (Miami? Arkansas? take your pick) and the schedule may not be looking as good.
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01-27-2016, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
You want to pay to go play a game at 215 RPI EKU or 260 RPI NKU? This is the exact kind of thinking that can tank an entire season.
2012-2013 Iowa is a great example. Look at that OOC. Kept them out of the tournament.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/schedule/Iowa
That point was made by BPredict on Twitter, who is a good source for RPI/Computer ranking discussion.
Dayton's scheduling was literally perfect this season. If the idiot committee puts us on the 7 line when we deserve a 4 then there's nothing we can do about it. Traveling to Eastern/Northern Kentucky would not change that.
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I disagree.
Iowa's OOC schedule didn't help, but being 3-8 on the road is what really killed them. Had they played two of their buy games on the road, and been 5-8 instead of 3-8, I think Iowa gets in that year. Had they gone to Central Michigan and South Dakota, they probably win both of those games easily and inflated their road wins in the process. Instead, they played them at home and got no credit for the wins at all.
The committee in 2013 and 2014 heavily favored road wins. They favored it more than anything else. It was almost to the point to where it was seemingly the only thing they really looked at.
Last edited by xubrew; 01-27-2016 at 01:15 PM..
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01-27-2016, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
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Then why not change the RPI formula to be more reflective of what is somewhat documented rather than use a not exactly defined criteria that can be used at the committee's whim?
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01-27-2016, 01:52 PM
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Around time of the eastern snowstorm, I think Joe Lunardi was filling in as announcer for Temple/LSU in Philly. Anyway, he mentioned that a road win was weighted 2 1/2 times a homer.
That's a considerable impact on overall data if true.
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01-27-2016, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
Something to think about....
-Oklahoma played at Memphis, at Hawaii (albeit during a tournament) and played I think a total of five OOC games away from home, and only played three buy games (I think they go back to Oral Roberts next year)
-Michigan State played at Oakland and at Northeastern. The Oakland game was in the NBA Arena because Oakland moved it there to increase ticket sales, but it was still Oakland's home game. They played six OOC games away from home.
Creighton actually went to Loyola IL.
BYU went to Long Beach State, and once again played several OOC games away from home. I think it was seven in total.
LSU went to College of Charleston and Houston.
Stanford went to Saint Mary's.
So, all six of these teams are what you could probably call brand name programs. All played at least one OOC road game against a team from a conference that isn't considered to be among the power conferences.
That's interesting.
You know what else is interesting??
They all have an athletic director that's on the selection committee, and were also on last year's selection committee.
So, why would all these schools feel compelled to schedule an OOC road game like the ones they scheduled??
Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
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Yes, because the committee chair stated a couple of days ago in an interview that OOC SOS and record would be a very important factor in the selection process.
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01-27-2016, 02:43 PM
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I don't know why the committee would give a team credit for beating a 200/250+ RPI team on the road. Maybe only the P5 schools get credit for doing that.
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01-27-2016, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Yes, because the committee chair stated a couple of days ago in an interview that OOC SOS and record would be a very important factor in the selection process.
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Does location factor into SOS? If it doesn't, then 100-200 RPI non-conference teams on the road rather then playing them at home will change your ooc sos.
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01-27-2016, 03:03 PM
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No, location is not a factor in SOS. SOS is Level 2 points and its not included. Venue only factored on Level 1 which is own W/L.
Many believe venue should indeed be factored on Level 2 though to more accurately reflect true SOS.
One thing for certain: Beating the #7 team (#3 in AP polls) in no way makes up for losing to the #240-ish team. We are still paying for #240.
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01-27-2016, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
I don't know why the committee would give a team credit for beating a 200/250+ RPI team on the road. Maybe only the P5 schools get credit for doing that.
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Most of the teams that benefited weren't power conference teams. Iowa was one of the teams that DIDN'T get in. I don't know why either. I just know what. The teams that won a ton of road games those two years were preferred over the teams that didn't, even if the road wins were against junk teams. Part of it may be subconscious. 5-8 on the road looks so much better than 3-8, even if two of the road wins were junk.
Every team that the majority of bracketologists felt was "overseeded" those two had one thing in common. They all had a bunch of road wins.
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01-27-2016, 10:03 PM
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Dayton projected a 4 seed by Jay Coleman a professor at the U of N FL., he is one of the best at selecting the field of 68.
http: www.unf.edu/=jcoleman/dance.htm
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01-27-2016, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
Most of the teams that benefited weren't power conference teams. Iowa was one of the teams that DIDN'T get in. I don't know why either. I just know what. The teams that won a ton of road games those two years were preferred over the teams that didn't, even if the road wins were against junk teams. Part of it may be subconscious. 5-8 on the road looks so much better than 3-8, even if two of the road wins were junk.
Every team that the majority of bracketologists felt was "overseeded" those two had one thing in common. They all had a bunch of road wins.
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I like the idea of rewarding teams that play and win on the road. Winning on the road is tough, especially out of conference. I also think an OOC road win should be weighted higher than a road win in conference. Margin of victory (or loss), is too subjective in my opinion. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No moral victories.
Last edited by ScottyExpress; 01-27-2016 at 11:34 PM..
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01-28-2016, 11:30 AM
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I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
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01-28-2016, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
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Without looking it up I seem to remember New Mexico getting a bid with an RPI of around 74 a few years ago. Not sure how that happened (if I am remembering correctly).
Edit: Just looked it up. In 98-99 New Mexico had an RPI of 74 and received an at-large bid out of the WAC with a 24-8 record. I assume that is the worst. I can't remember what I had for breakfast yesterday. Don't know how I remembered that.
Last edited by longtimefan; 01-28-2016 at 01:20 PM..
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01-28-2016, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ScottyExpress
I like the idea of rewarding teams that play and win on the road. Winning on the road is tough, especially out of conference. I also think an OOC road win should be weighted higher than a road win in conference. Margin of victory (or loss), is too subjective in my opinion. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No moral victories.
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Disagree, I think road wins in conference are harder. Familiarity and getting a comfort level playing against a superior team, vs. knowing you'll have basically 1 shot to beat a superior team in your entire 4 year career. No time to monkey around with different experiments to see what works against a certain set of players / coach.
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01-28-2016, 01:19 PM
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So, if you used this for seeding purposes in the Tourney, UD would see at about the worst 3/best 4 and Indiana would be a 7. That would make more sense than the UD at a 7 and Indiana at a 6 (Lunardi).
Last edited by IAFlyer; 01-28-2016 at 03:12 PM..
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01-28-2016, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
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Go to: http://realtimerpi.com/2014-2015/rpi_Men.html
That has either underlined or italicized every team that made the dance last year either via auto bid or at large bid.
Also, there is a link at the bottom for 2013-14...and on and on for the previous years...goes back a ways, like 2001 or so...underlining and italicizing jumps around some years having a different meaning/alternating between auto and at large.
The link for the previous year is at the bottom of the page.
IMO, there have been some pretty obnoxious at large bids given to undeserving BCS clubs in the 60's and maybe 70's through the years.
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01-28-2016, 03:13 PM
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Worst RPIs to get at-large bids
Got this from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
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01-28-2016, 04:22 PM
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Face facts
No matter how awesome UD's RPI, record, and overall resume may be by season's end, count on being about 2-3 seeds lower than where they would be if they were a P5+BE team (so Lunardi's current prediction of a 7 seed is in line with what would likely happen, not what should happen).
Count on a number of questionable to unworthy P5+BE teams getting in and being overseeded.
Count on a number of non-P5+BE teams with good resumes, better than their P5+BE counterparts, going to the NIT.
Count on 3 of 4 Last Four Ins being non-P5+BE teams.
Second verse, same as the first. It happens every year.
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01-28-2016, 04:24 PM
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That is only since 2005. Scroll all the way to the bottom and it says: #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004). By the way, New Mexico got a #9 seed with that 74 RPI.
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01-28-2016, 08:31 PM
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As is stands right now, we have:
6 top 50 wins (6-1)
10 top 100 wins (10-2)
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168
LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).
Winning takes care of everything, but the RPI portion is important, too, as many have noted. Hopefully our prior opponents can continue playing well down the stretch.
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01-29-2016, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).
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I am not holding my breath for a LaSalle win. They won three of their first four games. They now have not won a game since they beat us.
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01-29-2016, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
As is stands right now, we have:
6 top 50 wins (6-1)
10 top 100 wins (10-2)
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168
LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).
Winning takes care of everything, but the RPI portion is important, too, as many have noted. Hopefully our prior opponents can continue playing well down the stretch.
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Actually 5-2 against top 50 - with Alabama and Vanderbilt lurking just outside that cutoff.
http://www.udpride.com/images/rpi.htm
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01-29-2016, 10:29 AM
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I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
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01-29-2016, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
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I watched the NC ST/GT game, and the announcer, an ACC shill, said they will get 10. (Coach K called him out, asking why only 10? lol).
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01-29-2016, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
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No, I think that is about right, 9 schools. Every p5 school up to about rpi #69 or so has a legit shot at a bid, that is 9 ACC teams.
Everybody from projected #9 NC to projected #62 Florida State has a shot, if projected #76 GT gets hot, then they have a legit shot too. That makes 10 as Coach K. pointed out.
The rules are completely different for p5 schools, they get a HUGE benefit of the doubt every single year.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/ACC.html
Last edited by ud2; 01-29-2016 at 10:49 AM..
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01-29-2016, 10:51 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by ud2
No, I think that is about right, 9 schools. Every p5 school up to about rpi #69 or so has a legit shot at a bid, that is 9 ACC teams.
Everybody from projected #9 NC to projected #62 Florida State has a shot, if projected #76 GT gets hot, then they have a legit shot too. That makes 10 as Coach K. pointed out.
The rules are completely different for p5 schools, they get a HUGE benefit of the doubt every single year.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/ACC.html
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I posted this in the games thread. if this isn't proof that the power conferences feast on each other and they are not that good.
Clemson is an interesting one to look at.
13-7 overall with an RPI of 86; 2-2 against top 25; 6-3 against top 50
Losses to UMass (1-6 A10 ); Minn (0-9 Big10); Alabama (2-5 SEC); S. Carolina (5-2 SEC); Georgia (4-4 SEC); NC (5-3 ACC); Vir (5-3 ACC)
So other than S Carolina, they have lost to mid/bottom tier teams in "lower" conferences. They have no top 50 wins other than ACC teams. They are 6-2 in ACC. Could it be maybe the ACC isn't really that good?
Last edited by CE80; 01-29-2016 at 11:04 AM..
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