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  #101  
Old 01-10-2016, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
"Delusional" would be a step up for some of you guys........
need to even things out .... not soooo high when we win; and not soooo low when we don't.
GO FLYERS!
Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
A fan acts fanatically..(like Geico commercial).. "That's what you do."
Guilty as charged!...SMH...thought these type of losses were permanently in the rearview mirror...I was clearly wrong.

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  #102  
Old 01-10-2016, 11:25 AM
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The Bubble, it's what we do.

Last year avoided the bad loss but did not have the big win. This year it is back to normal, big win combined with bad loss.
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  #103  
Old 01-10-2016, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
The Bubble, it's what we do.

Last year avoided the bad loss but did not have the big win. This year it is back to normal, big win combined with bad loss.
Dayton lost @Dukes last year. Bad loss, not as quite as bad as @LaSalle, but close. And yes, back to the bubble again.

Need Vandy and Monmouth to sneak into the top 50. Need two A-10 teams to sneak into the top 50 like GW, RI, VCU, Davidson, or St. Joe's & beat them.

Right now, only 1 team Dayton has beat is guaranteed top 50 which is Iowa and only 1 team Dayton lost to is guaranteed top 50 which is Xavier. A bunch of other teams are on the bubble for top 50. So 1-1 versus 1-3 last year.

Need the other teams to get into the top 50 (yes they are now, but rpiforecast.com has a lot of them likely moving to 51-100).
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  #104  
Old 01-10-2016, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
The Bubble, it's what we do...
I think you are right..

I mean, at least I hope so.. right now I'd take bubble and be pretty thankful for that.
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  #105  
Old 01-10-2016, 12:42 PM
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I'm re-converting to Catholicism, and commencing Lenten practice early. I'm giving up fandom.

Don't have to worry about giving alms or charity to the poor, the Flyers have already done that in spades.
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  #106  
Old 01-10-2016, 12:56 PM
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I'm on a roll: The Flyers are still the best team in the A-10, so-

What does that speak of the A-10?

I'm actually having fun here. Bracketology? WOW! Kendall Pollard will help.

I have no idea how to assess where we'll end up. Not prognosticating, but I'll acquiesce to 10, 11, 12 seed (whatever, so long as we're in).
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  #107  
Old 01-10-2016, 01:34 PM
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Right now, A-10 is a 1-2 bid league. Dayton and GW comfortably in now, but extremely limited opportunities for good top 50 wins the rest of the way so profiles will get worse week after week and that is with winning a ton of games and not losing to more bad teams like St. Louis and LaSalle.
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  #108  
Old 01-11-2016, 09:39 AM
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The LaSalle loss hurt and was a huge hit to the RPI/SOS, but Lunardi only dropped us one seed line:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/195

Dayton a 6 seed, GW a 10 seed, and VCU enters the bracket as an 11 seed

We can recover from the LaSalle loss with a 2-0 week against Davidson and GW and get right back up to a 4-5 seed
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  #109  
Old 01-11-2016, 11:10 AM
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The RPI means nothing if the Flyers experience another loss or two like LaSalle. There is no sugar-coating the performance of the players or the coaching staff against LaSalle - it was horrible...and I am an Archie advocate!
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  #110  
Old 01-11-2016, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
The Bubble, it's what we do.
There's a T-Shirt.
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  #111  
Old 01-18-2016, 11:35 AM
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New Bracketology is out. Dayton 6, GW 9, VCU 11, St Joes on the wrong side of the bubble.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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  #112  
Old 01-18-2016, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
New Bracketology is out. Dayton 6, GW 9, VCU 11, St Joes on the wrong side of the bubble.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Get by Texas and then a showdown with the other Miller.
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  #113  
Old 01-20-2016, 12:36 PM
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From the "3rd most accurate bracketologist for those with 9+ years of experience"

http://www.bracketwag.com/

Has (6) UD vs (11) UCLA. In Anaheim. Yeah, that would suck and I could totally see that happening.
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  #114  
Old 01-20-2016, 01:01 PM
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If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
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  #115  
Old 01-20-2016, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFanatic View Post
If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
Good catch, they would be in the Anaheim region but in NYC. Got it.
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  #116  
Old 01-20-2016, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFanatic View Post
If you read the Bracket then Dayton wouldn't play UCLA in Anaheim. They would play in NYC.
That would be almost as bad an UD playing in Columbus.
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  #117  
Old 01-20-2016, 01:52 PM
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If the Flyers make the tourney they will be underseeded, that is a given.
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  #118  
Old 01-20-2016, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
If the Flyers make the tourney they will be underseeded, that is a given.
I do not believe that. UD will get a fair seed this year.
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  #119  
Old 01-20-2016, 05:14 PM
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UD was not underseeded last year according to http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Remember, the Flyers were 1-3 in top 50 play for the season last year. After reflecting on it, I don't think we were underseeded and in fact were lucky to get in with a 1-3 top 50 record.

Neil and Archie addressed this with the schedule (Iowa game was crucial) and so far this year, Dayton is 5-1 top 50 games and 8-2 top 100.
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  #120  
Old 01-20-2016, 05:17 PM
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I started another thread on this a couple days ago, but really belongs here.

I love Dance card for picking NCAA teams using an algorithm trying to mimic what the committee would do. Right now, Dayton #7, not a 7 seed, the 7th most likely to make the NCAA. Last year, Dance Card had Dayton 2nd team out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

NBC has Dayton a #6.

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.c...s-field-of-68/

CBS/Palm has Dayton a #5.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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  #121  
Old 01-20-2016, 05:22 PM
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Updated Palm/CBS bracket. Dayton remains a #5 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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  #122  
Old 01-20-2016, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
UD was not underseeded last year according to http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Remember, the Flyers were 1-3 in top 50 play for the season last year. After reflecting on it, I don't think we were underseeded and in fact were lucky to get in with a 1-3 top 50 record.

Neil and Archie addressed this with the schedule (Iowa game was crucial) and so far this year, Dayton is 5-1 top 50 games and 8-2 top 100.
That is the thing, what is the magic formula? Was it the sos? Or the top 50 or top 100 record? Or something else? Or all of the above? Sos is much better this year.
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  #123  
Old 01-21-2016, 07:43 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
UD was not underseeded last year according to http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.

We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
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  #124  
Old 01-21-2016, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.

We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
I'm just glad it didn't translate to an NIT appearance. They had Dayton on the wrong side of the bubble in 2015. By far their most misses last year.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm
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  #125  
Old 01-21-2016, 08:28 AM
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Cue Jim Mora.
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  #126  
Old 01-21-2016, 08:41 AM
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Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.

If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
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  #127  
Old 01-21-2016, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.

If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
I think Vandy getting to sub 50 is most important (sub 50 road win and ooc to boot). Next would be Chatt (make loss a sub 50).
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  #128  
Old 01-21-2016, 10:21 AM
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Alabama and Davidson are more likely to fade further from Top50 than climb into it.
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  #129  
Old 01-21-2016, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think Vandy getting to sub 50 is most important (sub 50 road win and ooc to boot). Next would be Chatt (make loss a sub 50).
Actually, Vandy has been a major disappointment. They seem to have a wealth of talent but they just can't put it together.
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  #130  
Old 01-21-2016, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug View Post
Alabama and Davidson are more likely to fade further from Top50 than climb into it.
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I'll take Vandy and Chatt < 50; Alabama and Davidson > 50 and William & Mary = 50
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Old 01-21-2016, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.

If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
Based on rpiforecast, records needed for top 50 (may need an additional win depending on everything else)
Alabama 9-4
Chatanooga 10-2
Davidson 8-4
Vanderbilt 8-5
William and Mary 8-4
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Old 01-21-2016, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Don't look now, but Alabama, Chattanooga, Davidson, William & Mary, and Vanderbilt are 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54 in the RPI.

If 51-54 could move up about 5 spots, our record vs. the top-50 would go from 4-1 to 7-2. That's more symbolic than important, but the OCD person in me would like it.
I have NO hope for Alabama, though some wins against So Carolina, kentucky or Florida would help.

I have hope for William & Mary, Chattanooga, and possibly Davidson. Though more down on Davidson as they think their weaknesses have been exposed.
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Old 01-21-2016, 03:52 PM
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Chatt plays 4 lower rip teams next. Then have Furman and Mercer coming up.

William and Mary plays Hofstra this Saturday. i know as i am attending. A win there helps and whoever can dominate the CAA the next 3 to 5 weeks, as the top teams are all around 4-2 in conference. So W & M has opportunities.
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  #134  
Old 01-22-2016, 10:58 PM
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-bas...t-watch-012216
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Old 01-22-2016, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
I love that site, but they are predicting probability you will make the tournament. Not what seed you will get.

We currently have the 7th highest probability we will make the dance. That doesn't translate into us being a 2 seed. Just like last year it shouldn't have translated to us being in the play in game.
Yes, but if Dayton should have been left out, they are by definition over-seeded when they make the tourney.
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Old 01-24-2016, 12:35 PM
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http://bracketmatrix.com/

We are a 5. Teams that are behind us include Michigan, Butler, Florida, Indiana, Gonzaga, Pitt, and even Duke.

Yes, I know it is a poll of polls. Yes, I know we have to take care of business and keep winning.

Still, it is nice that as we head into February we are getting a lot of attention. Feels good.
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Old 01-24-2016, 01:11 PM
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...rankings/top25

Parrish has us at 23 going into today's game
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Old 01-24-2016, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://bracketmatrix.com/

We are a 5. Teams that are behind us include Michigan, Butler, Florida, Indiana, Gonzaga, Pitt, and even Duke.

Yes, I know it is a poll of polls. Yes, I know we have to take care of business and keep winning.

Still, it is nice that as we head into February we are getting a lot of attention. Feels good.
Amen. Also nice that we're not only doing well in the popularity polls but also in the analytics--currently #7 OVERALL in Coleman's Dance Card (http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm). His numbers suggest that several currently ranked teams are being exposed (Butler, South Carolina) or about to be (Indiana).
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Old 01-25-2016, 09:58 AM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/209

Joe's latest bracket drops us down a line from a 6 seed to a 7 seed after going 2-0 on the week, both road wins. What a joke. GW a 10 seed and VCU an 11 seed. SJU is the First Team Out.
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Old 01-25-2016, 10:30 AM
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Drop from a 6 to 7 can be as little as one spot in the S-curve. Not a big deal.
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Old 01-25-2016, 10:38 AM
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I don't care about rankings or projected seed now. That will take care of itself when season is over. I am all about winning the A10 regular season title. For that reason the Lasalle loss will bug me until vcu loses.
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  #142  
Old 01-25-2016, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug View Post
Drop from a 6 to 7 can be as little as one spot in the S-curve. Not a big deal.
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It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
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  #143  
Old 01-25-2016, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
I agree.

10 RPI, SOS 15, 4-1 vs top 50 RPI, 10-2 vs Top 100, 10-2 in last 12, 4-2 against his projected 68 team field and best win #7RPI Iowa (projected #2).

But take it all with a grain of salt, this is just the opinion of 1. We went 2-0 on the road this week (SBU is a quality win) and dropped a line. USC went 0-2 and stayed a 5.
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Old 01-25-2016, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
irregardless
I don't not care, as long as we win with a victory in the NCAA tourney

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Old 01-25-2016, 11:20 AM
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Doesn't Lunardi always update his bracket at the last minute before Selection Sunday to fall in line with what everybody else is saying? I don't follow bracketology closely, but Jerry Palm at CBS seems to be more realistic, and I think he has UD as a 5 seed now.
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Old 01-25-2016, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Doesn't Lunardi always update his bracket at the last minute before Selection Sunday to fall in line with what everybody else is saying? I don't follow bracketology closely, but Jerry Palm at CBS seems to be more realistic, and I think he has UD as a 5 seed now.
7 seed playing Valpo
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Old 01-25-2016, 11:45 AM
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Lunardi ,who had us in the tourney solid last year. We know how that worked, we barely made it
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Old 01-25-2016, 11:46 AM
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Lunardi has been accused of that in the past, true or not I don't know, but there was a specific team that I saw mentioned in a thread somewhere that was added to his bracket in the last hour that many seemed to indicate he has an inside source and added them to his bracket at the last minute knowing that they were in the field.

Its all for fun right now anyways, nobody is truely a lock at this point anyways. Good for discussion, good to compare various sites and good for giving the common fan (if not the team) a rough idea of where they stand and what they need to accomplish moving forward if they want to dance or get a better seed. I don't know if he pays better attention moving forward, I know he's admitted that he's placed certain teams in the same area of the bracket before to generate conversation, but Lunardi's placement of UD isn't possible since they already played X and the committee has stated that they try to avoid rematches prior to the elite 8. If UD were a 7 seed, they'd be opposite another 2 seed, so it could be as simple as moving UD down a notch hoping the potential UD-X rematch would generate a few more clicks.

FWIW, Palm has both UD & VCU as a 5 seed.

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Old 01-25-2016, 01:44 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance Card updated, has UD at #14
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  #150  
Old 01-25-2016, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance Card updated, has UD at #14
Actually #13. SMU is listed ahead of UD.
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  #151  
Old 01-25-2016, 02:13 PM
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I saw an interview that Katz had with the selection committee chair a couple of days ago and the chairman stated that the OOC SOS and record would play a significant factor this year. He indicated that the committee had begun giving it more weight the past few years and would continue that trend this year. I think there are going to be some surprises based upon weak OOC's.
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  #152  
Old 01-25-2016, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
It's not a big deal it's just frustrating when you look at the teams ahead of us on his S-curve; Pitt, Indiana, Wichita St, even Duke, it's a name game irregardless of comparable resume numbers.
It is indeed a drop from #24 to #25. Problem with next 4 games. Lose and drop a lot or win and best case neutral but likely drop.
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  #153  
Old 01-25-2016, 04:55 PM
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Good primer on committee

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...wins/79296200/

http://newsok.com/article/5473977

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Old 01-25-2016, 04:56 PM
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Usatoday has UD a 6 seed.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...iowa/79291906/
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Lunardi has been accused of that in the past, true or not I don't know, but there was a specific team that I saw mentioned in a thread somewhere that was added to his bracket in the last hour that many seemed to indicate he has an inside source and added them to his bracket at the last minute knowing that they were in the field.

Its all for fun right now anyways, nobody is truely a lock at this point anyways. Good for discussion, good to compare various sites and good for giving the common fan (if not the team) a rough idea of where they stand and what they need to accomplish moving forward if they want to dance or get a better seed. I don't know if he pays better attention moving forward, I know he's admitted that he's placed certain teams in the same area of the bracket before to generate conversation, but Lunardi's placement of UD isn't possible since they already played X and the committee has stated that they try to avoid rematches prior to the elite 8. If UD were a 7 seed, they'd be opposite another 2 seed, so it could be as simple as moving UD down a notch hoping the potential UD-X rematch would generate a few more clicks.

FWIW, Palm has both UD & VCU as a 5 seed.
They only try to avoid rematches for the Round of 64. They used to avoid conference match ups until the Elite Eight, but that's not even the case anymore unless the teams played each other twice during the season and again in the conference tournament. X and UD could absolutely meet up in the round of 32. The committee would not avoid that.
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  #156  
Old 01-25-2016, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Good primer on committee

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...wins/79296200/

http://newsok.com/article/5473977
Good articles. Notice the committee chair again mentions the importance of the OOC.
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Old 01-25-2016, 11:16 PM
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If you take the blind Pepsi Challenge, Dayton is a #3 or #4 seed. Thats what the math clearly spells out. And I wouldnt doubt that bracketologists would have UD higher than #6 or #7 had they been blindfolded.

But they arent. And they pull stuff out of their butt like "the eye test" which is more or less another term for "I have my own reasons I cannot clearly articulate that contradict the mathematics."

Nobody at the NCAA Mock Selection could clearly spell out what "eye test" was either. More or less a hem/haw answer.

South Carolina is ranked #22 this week. How many teams in the RPI Top-50 have they slayed? That would be zero, Chris. Their SOS? #203.

Were South Carolina named Dayton, Dayton wouldn't even be in the "Next 4 Out" list.
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  #158  
Old 01-27-2016, 12:01 AM
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Bubble teams

Comparing Jerry Palm & Joe Lunardi Jan 26 '16:

Last Four Byes - Joe Lunardi
Colorado (Palm 7 seed)
Gonzaga (Palm last 4 in)
Butler (Palm 9 seed)
George Washington (Palm 10 seed)

Last Four In - Joe Lunardi
Cincinnati (Palm first 4 out)
Washington (Palm first 4 out)
Clemson (Palm no mention)
LSU (Palm no mention)

Last Four In - Jerry Palm
Florida (Lunardi 9 seed)
Gonzaga (Lunardi 9 seed)
Connecticut (Lunardi 9 seed)
Saint Joseph's (Lunardi first 4 out)

First Four Out - Joe Lunardi
Saint Joseph's (Palm first 4 in)
Texas Tech (Palm 9 seed)
Seton Hall (Palm 10 seed)
Florida State (Palm 10 seed)

First Four Out - Jerry Palm
Washington (Lunardi last 4 in)
UCLA (Lunardi 11seed)
Kansas State (Lunardi no mention)
Cincinnati (Lunardi last 4 in)

Next Out - Joe Lunardi
Syracuse (Palm no mention)
Stanford (Palm no mention)
Georgetown (Palm no mention)
Oregon State (Palm 9 seed)

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  #159  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:12 AM
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A positive "eye test" is applied to a team from a Big 5 Conference.
The BCS runs the NCAA.
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  #160  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:19 AM
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With no dominant team(s) this year, smaller conferences should be scared. With everyone beating up on each other, the BE, B10, ACC and B12 are going to be very well represented.
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  #161  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
With no dominant team(s) this year, smaller conferences should be scared. With everyone beating up on each other, the BE, B10, ACC and B12 are going to be very well represented.
This year will be no different than every other year. The traditional one bid conferences will get their one bid. There will be the same discussion about who is more deserving. A Valpo that lost in their conference final that has a 28RPI and 1-1 against the top 50 or a Indiana with their 40 RPI and 2-6 against the top 50.
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  #162  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:41 AM
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Blind Resume test. Team A-overall record 17-3. RPI 12. Record against top 25 RPI 0-2. Record against top 50 0-3. Record against top 100 6-3. SOS 39. 11-0 vs 100+.
Team B- 16-3. RPI 10. Top 25 1-1. Top 50 5-2. Top 100 9-2. SOS 17. 7-1 vs 100+.

Obviously, a big discrepancy in resumes. We all know who Team B is. Guess Team A.
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  #163  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Blind Resume test. Team A-overall record 17-3. RPI 12. Record against top 25 RPI 0-2. Record against top 50 0-3. Record against top 100 6-3. SOS 39. 11-0 vs 100+.
Team B- 16-3. RPI 10. Top 25 1-1. Top 50 5-2. Top 100 9-2. SOS 17. 7-1 vs 100+.

Obviously, a big discrepancy in resumes. We all know who Team B is. Guess Team A.
Maryland?
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  #164  
Old 01-27-2016, 09:52 AM
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I did not look. I have had my eye on both Maryland and Indiana. Neither has an NCAA worthy resume - that is if they were in the Horizon and not he Big 10. The Big 10 had a number of teams that are just not that good and that is who they have been feasting on since conference play started.

Let's see what they do in their next 10 Big 10 games. After last nights loss to a not so good Wisc team, Indiana plays 6 against the <50 RPI teams and Maryland plays 5.
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  #165  
Old 01-27-2016, 10:15 AM
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CE80- Bingo, you win. These resumes aren't even close. The Flers should be at least 3 seed lines above Maryland in anyone's bracket.
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  #166  
Old 01-27-2016, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
This year will be no different than every other year. The traditional one bid conferences will get their one bid. There will be the same discussion about who is more deserving. A Valpo that lost in their conference final that has a 28RPI and 1-1 against the top 50 or a Indiana with their 40 RPI and 2-6 against the top 50.
And because Indiana has twice as many top 50 wins, they are obviously the better team.. (See Texas from last year).
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  #167  
Old 01-27-2016, 11:02 AM
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Every year they say the bubble is weak. This year will be no different. What I do think will be different is that the bubble teams will be a much larger group. It will be interesting to see if Dance Card has more teams grouped closely together above and below the bubble burst line.
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  #168  
Old 01-27-2016, 11:30 AM
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Something to think about....

-Oklahoma played at Memphis, at Hawaii (albeit during a tournament) and played I think a total of five OOC games away from home, and only played three buy games (I think they go back to Oral Roberts next year)

-Michigan State played at Oakland and at Northeastern. The Oakland game was in the NBA Arena because Oakland moved it there to increase ticket sales, but it was still Oakland's home game. They played six OOC games away from home.

Creighton actually went to Loyola IL.

BYU went to Long Beach State, and once again played several OOC games away from home. I think it was seven in total.

LSU went to College of Charleston and Houston.

Stanford went to Saint Mary's.


So, all six of these teams are what you could probably call brand name programs. All played at least one OOC road game against a team from a conference that isn't considered to be among the power conferences.

That's interesting.

You know what else is interesting??

They all have an athletic director that's on the selection committee, and were also on last year's selection committee.

So, why would all these schools feel compelled to schedule an OOC road game like the ones they scheduled??

Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
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  #169  
Old 01-27-2016, 11:37 AM
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A friend of mine who is an IU grad makes a good point I think. Bubble teams should almost never come from P5 conferences. Why? Because we already know how good they are. They've already played 5 games against top 50 schools, and proven they're not good enough.

Take the team from the non-P5 conference who did not get to play 3 top-50 games on their home court and let's find out how good they are, because we really don't know.
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  #170  
Old 01-27-2016, 11:42 AM
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When we were discussing scheduling, I had said that since we were having trouble getting the kind of home and home we wanted and were kind of forced into starting the Alabama series on the road, this was the year that we should/could schedule a MAC like team on the road even if it was only a 1 time thing. Our only true OOC road game was at Vandy. I think for the most part the majority thought I was nuts. Good thing we won at Vandy. I do believe in the past, teams got penalized for not leaving home for a true OOC road game.
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  #171  
Old 01-27-2016, 12:29 PM
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I would have considered filling the slot we did not schedule with an away game at say Northern Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky... One time one way game.
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  #172  
Old 01-27-2016, 12:50 PM
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As long as we win out at home and only pick up 2 or 3 losses on the road at SJU, Richmond, or RI, we are in really good shape. A lot depends on how the top 50 RPI record falls, but even if some teams slip to the 51-65 range, I think most of us will be surprised by the committee's seeding, in a good way.

Our 1-3 record against the top 50 last year and mediocre OOC just about cost us a bid. That certainly isn't going to be the case this season. Just avoid the landmines from here on out and make it to the finals of the A10 tournament and we will be a 4-5 seed easily.

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  #173  
Old 01-27-2016, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug View Post
I would have considered filling the slot we did not schedule with an away game at say Northern Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky... One time one way game.
You want to pay to go play a game at 215 RPI EKU or 260 RPI NKU? This is the exact kind of thinking that can tank an entire season.

2012-2013 Iowa is a great example. Look at that OOC. Kept them out of the tournament.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/schedule/Iowa

That point was made by BPredict on Twitter, who is a good source for RPI/Computer ranking discussion.

Dayton's scheduling was literally perfect this season. If the idiot committee puts us on the 7 line when we deserve a 4 then there's nothing we can do about it. Traveling to Eastern/Northern Kentucky would not change that.
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  #174  
Old 01-27-2016, 01:12 PM
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Sure the schedule worked out great this year but the results from playing those games had a real big impact too. I think the schedule makers agreed that only 1 true ooc road game is not ideal. They didn't like what was available to them. Everyone points to the Iowa win as huge and it was but the Vandy win may be just as big. Lose at Vandy and another game (Miami? Arkansas? take your pick) and the schedule may not be looking as good.
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Old 01-27-2016, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
You want to pay to go play a game at 215 RPI EKU or 260 RPI NKU? This is the exact kind of thinking that can tank an entire season.

2012-2013 Iowa is a great example. Look at that OOC. Kept them out of the tournament.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/schedule/Iowa

That point was made by BPredict on Twitter, who is a good source for RPI/Computer ranking discussion.

Dayton's scheduling was literally perfect this season. If the idiot committee puts us on the 7 line when we deserve a 4 then there's nothing we can do about it. Traveling to Eastern/Northern Kentucky would not change that.

I disagree.

Iowa's OOC schedule didn't help, but being 3-8 on the road is what really killed them. Had they played two of their buy games on the road, and been 5-8 instead of 3-8, I think Iowa gets in that year. Had they gone to Central Michigan and South Dakota, they probably win both of those games easily and inflated their road wins in the process. Instead, they played them at home and got no credit for the wins at all.

The committee in 2013 and 2014 heavily favored road wins. They favored it more than anything else. It was almost to the point to where it was seemingly the only thing they really looked at.

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  #176  
Old 01-27-2016, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post

Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
Then why not change the RPI formula to be more reflective of what is somewhat documented rather than use a not exactly defined criteria that can be used at the committee's whim?
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  #177  
Old 01-27-2016, 01:52 PM
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Around time of the eastern snowstorm, I think Joe Lunardi was filling in as announcer for Temple/LSU in Philly. Anyway, he mentioned that a road win was weighted 2 1/2 times a homer.
That's a considerable impact on overall data if true.
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  #178  
Old 01-27-2016, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Something to think about....

-Oklahoma played at Memphis, at Hawaii (albeit during a tournament) and played I think a total of five OOC games away from home, and only played three buy games (I think they go back to Oral Roberts next year)

-Michigan State played at Oakland and at Northeastern. The Oakland game was in the NBA Arena because Oakland moved it there to increase ticket sales, but it was still Oakland's home game. They played six OOC games away from home.

Creighton actually went to Loyola IL.

BYU went to Long Beach State, and once again played several OOC games away from home. I think it was seven in total.

LSU went to College of Charleston and Houston.

Stanford went to Saint Mary's.


So, all six of these teams are what you could probably call brand name programs. All played at least one OOC road game against a team from a conference that isn't considered to be among the power conferences.

That's interesting.

You know what else is interesting??

They all have an athletic director that's on the selection committee, and were also on last year's selection committee.

So, why would all these schools feel compelled to schedule an OOC road game like the ones they scheduled??

Is it a case of "be sure and get your road wins because that's what's going to be valued??"
Yes, because the committee chair stated a couple of days ago in an interview that OOC SOS and record would be a very important factor in the selection process.
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  #179  
Old 01-27-2016, 02:43 PM
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I don't know why the committee would give a team credit for beating a 200/250+ RPI team on the road. Maybe only the P5 schools get credit for doing that.
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  #180  
Old 01-27-2016, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Yes, because the committee chair stated a couple of days ago in an interview that OOC SOS and record would be a very important factor in the selection process.
Does location factor into SOS? If it doesn't, then 100-200 RPI non-conference teams on the road rather then playing them at home will change your ooc sos.
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  #181  
Old 01-27-2016, 03:03 PM
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No, location is not a factor in SOS. SOS is Level 2 points and its not included. Venue only factored on Level 1 which is own W/L.

Many believe venue should indeed be factored on Level 2 though to more accurately reflect true SOS.

One thing for certain: Beating the #7 team (#3 in AP polls) in no way makes up for losing to the #240-ish team. We are still paying for #240.
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Old 01-27-2016, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I don't know why the committee would give a team credit for beating a 200/250+ RPI team on the road. Maybe only the P5 schools get credit for doing that.
Most of the teams that benefited weren't power conference teams. Iowa was one of the teams that DIDN'T get in. I don't know why either. I just know what. The teams that won a ton of road games those two years were preferred over the teams that didn't, even if the road wins were against junk teams. Part of it may be subconscious. 5-8 on the road looks so much better than 3-8, even if two of the road wins were junk.

Every team that the majority of bracketologists felt was "overseeded" those two had one thing in common. They all had a bunch of road wins.
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Old 01-27-2016, 10:03 PM
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Dayton projected a 4 seed by Jay Coleman a professor at the U of N FL., he is one of the best at selecting the field of 68.

http:www.unf.edu/=jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 01-27-2016, 10:37 PM
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Good read on teams with large differences between RPI and Kenpom and why that is. Plus the author discusses the "Wins Above Bubble" formula, which seems to makes a lot of sense.

http://thebiglead.com/2016/01/27/com...meroy-ratings/

Explanation of "Wins Above Bubble" from an article written last year...
http://thebiglead.com/2015/02/05/win...-over-the-rpi/

And finally this years "WAB" rankings. UD is 15th...

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/...ter-the-storm/
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  #185  
Old 01-27-2016, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Most of the teams that benefited weren't power conference teams. Iowa was one of the teams that DIDN'T get in. I don't know why either. I just know what. The teams that won a ton of road games those two years were preferred over the teams that didn't, even if the road wins were against junk teams. Part of it may be subconscious. 5-8 on the road looks so much better than 3-8, even if two of the road wins were junk.

Every team that the majority of bracketologists felt was "overseeded" those two had one thing in common. They all had a bunch of road wins.
I like the idea of rewarding teams that play and win on the road. Winning on the road is tough, especially out of conference. I also think an OOC road win should be weighted higher than a road win in conference. Margin of victory (or loss), is too subjective in my opinion. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No moral victories.

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Old 01-28-2016, 11:30 AM
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I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
Without looking it up I seem to remember New Mexico getting a bid with an RPI of around 74 a few years ago. Not sure how that happened (if I am remembering correctly).

Edit: Just looked it up. In 98-99 New Mexico had an RPI of 74 and received an at-large bid out of the WAC with a 24-8 record. I assume that is the worst. I can't remember what I had for breakfast yesterday. Don't know how I remembered that.

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  #188  
Old 01-28-2016, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ScottyExpress View Post
I like the idea of rewarding teams that play and win on the road. Winning on the road is tough, especially out of conference. I also think an OOC road win should be weighted higher than a road win in conference. Margin of victory (or loss), is too subjective in my opinion. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No moral victories.
Disagree, I think road wins in conference are harder. Familiarity and getting a comfort level playing against a superior team, vs. knowing you'll have basically 1 shot to beat a superior team in your entire 4 year career. No time to monkey around with different experiments to see what works against a certain set of players / coach.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
Good read on teams with large differences between RPI and Kenpom and why that is. Plus the author discusses the "Wins Above Bubble" formula, which seems to makes a lot of sense.

http://thebiglead.com/2016/01/27/com...meroy-ratings/

Explanation of "Wins Above Bubble" from an article written last year...
http://thebiglead.com/2015/02/05/win...-over-the-rpi/

And finally this years "WAB" rankings. UD is 15th...

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/...ter-the-storm/
So, if you used this for seeding purposes in the Tourney, UD would see at about the worst 3/best 4 and Indiana would be a 7. That would make more sense than the UD at a 7 and Indiana at a 6 (Lunardi).

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  #190  
Old 01-28-2016, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I tried googling it but could not find it. What is the highest (worst) RPI team to ever get an at large birth? Anyone?
Go to: http://realtimerpi.com/2014-2015/rpi_Men.html

That has either underlined or italicized every team that made the dance last year either via auto bid or at large bid.

Also, there is a link at the bottom for 2013-14...and on and on for the previous years...goes back a ways, like 2001 or so...underlining and italicizing jumps around some years having a different meaning/alternating between auto and at large.

The link for the previous year is at the bottom of the page.

IMO, there have been some pretty obnoxious at large bids given to undeserving BCS clubs in the 60's and maybe 70's through the years.
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Old 01-28-2016, 03:13 PM
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Worst RPIs to get at-large bids

Got this from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
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Old 01-28-2016, 04:22 PM
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Face facts

No matter how awesome UD's RPI, record, and overall resume may be by season's end, count on being about 2-3 seeds lower than where they would be if they were a P5+BE team (so Lunardi's current prediction of a 7 seed is in line with what would likely happen, not what should happen).

Count on a number of questionable to unworthy P5+BE teams getting in and being overseeded.

Count on a number of non-P5+BE teams with good resumes, better than their P5+BE counterparts, going to the NIT.

Count on 3 of 4 Last Four Ins being non-P5+BE teams.

Second verse, same as the first. It happens every year.
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  #193  
Old 01-28-2016, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Got this from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
That is only since 2005. Scroll all the way to the bottom and it says: #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004). By the way, New Mexico got a #9 seed with that 74 RPI.
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  #194  
Old 01-28-2016, 08:31 PM
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As is stands right now, we have:
6 top 50 wins (6-1)
10 top 100 wins (10-2)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168

LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).

Winning takes care of everything, but the RPI portion is important, too, as many have noted. Hopefully our prior opponents can continue playing well down the stretch.
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).
I am not holding my breath for a LaSalle win. They won three of their first four games. They now have not won a game since they beat us.
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
As is stands right now, we have:
6 top 50 wins (6-1)
10 top 100 wins (10-2)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../_/teamId/2168

LaSalle's RPI should go up some as well, as they have 6 upcoming games vs teams with RPI less than 50 (including us).

Winning takes care of everything, but the RPI portion is important, too, as many have noted. Hopefully our prior opponents can continue playing well down the stretch.
Actually 5-2 against top 50 - with Alabama and Vanderbilt lurking just outside that cutoff.

http://www.udpride.com/images/rpi.htm
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:29 AM
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I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
I watched the NC ST/GT game, and the announcer, an ACC shill, said they will get 10. (Coach K called him out, asking why only 10? lol).
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I just looked at Palm's bracket, updated this morning. GW and Joes first four out. 9 ACC teams. I know this is not the real deal but seriously, 9 ACC teams?
No, I think that is about right, 9 schools. Every p5 school up to about rpi #69 or so has a legit shot at a bid, that is 9 ACC teams.

Everybody from projected #9 NC to projected #62 Florida State has a shot, if projected #76 GT gets hot, then they have a legit shot too. That makes 10 as Coach K. pointed out.

The rules are completely different for p5 schools, they get a HUGE benefit of the doubt every single year.



http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/ACC.html

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Old 01-29-2016, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
No, I think that is about right, 9 schools. Every p5 school up to about rpi #69 or so has a legit shot at a bid, that is 9 ACC teams.

Everybody from projected #9 NC to projected #62 Florida State has a shot, if projected #76 GT gets hot, then they have a legit shot too. That makes 10 as Coach K. pointed out.

The rules are completely different for p5 schools, they get a HUGE benefit of the doubt every single year.



http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/ACC.html
I posted this in the games thread. if this isn't proof that the power conferences feast on each other and they are not that good.

Clemson is an interesting one to look at.

13-7 overall with an RPI of 86; 2-2 against top 25; 6-3 against top 50

Losses to UMass (1-6 A10 ); Minn (0-9 Big10); Alabama (2-5 SEC); S. Carolina (5-2 SEC); Georgia (4-4 SEC); NC (5-3 ACC); Vir (5-3 ACC)

So other than S Carolina, they have lost to mid/bottom tier teams in "lower" conferences. They have no top 50 wins other than ACC teams. They are 6-2 in ACC. Could it be maybe the ACC isn't really that good?

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