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  #501  
Old 03-01-2016, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Caught me. You're right. Flyers finish 0-2 and then lose to GW in Brooklyn finishing with an RPI around 35. No sweat. Nothing to worry about. Doesn't matter how you do against top 50/100 or bottom 250.
straw man. caught you again.
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  #502  
Old 03-01-2016, 10:45 PM
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Dayton Basketball ‏@DaytonMBB
Dayton's 8 road wins this year are the most in the @Archie_Miller era. Most regular season road wins since 1966-67.
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  #503  
Old 03-01-2016, 11:20 PM
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8-2 on the road and 10-3 road/neutral is pretty amazing. That must be one of the best records in the country.
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  #504  
Old 03-01-2016, 11:32 PM
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Now you can say "lock"
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  #505  
Old 03-01-2016, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Now you can say "lock"
Not quite, one more win and we are a lock
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  #506  
Old 03-02-2016, 12:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
Not quite, one more win and we are a lock
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ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.
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  #507  
Old 03-02-2016, 06:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
Not quite, one more win and we are a lock
Even Dayton is a lock now. I expect them to play themselves back into the 4/5 line.
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  #508  
Old 03-04-2016, 11:36 AM
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Bubble watch continues their humor at our expense, and probably rightly so.

"Our favorite running joke of the 2015-16 Bubble Watch -- which is just nine days away (!) from retreating to its Ivan Drago-style training laboratory for annual debrief and maintenance -- was, by far, the Dayton Flyers, and their post-lock string of losses. Dayton fans pretended to be irate; we pretended to be worried. There were breathless fake news reports of fake protests in fake banana republics, desperate pleas for mercy, faux-realizations of a curse that didn't exist and, finally, after Tuesday's win over Richmond, an "Apollo 13" gif that cast the Watch in the role of a relieved Ed Harris. It didn't matter that Dayton was never going to miss the tournament. We were having too much fun. Now that the crew capsule has safely achieved re-entry, the Dayton joke has probably run its course. See you in 2017, Flyers!"

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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  #509  
Old 03-04-2016, 12:04 PM
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I'm not sold yet. While likely a lock, we look like a one and done team . Beating a Richmond team that is going nowhere and has virtually no wins of real consequence (save Cal-- a loooong time ago) hasn't proven that we are back to mid season form. We need to get back to what was working and that includes Big Steve. His shot blocking is sorely missed.
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  #510  
Old 03-04-2016, 12:09 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Tough loss for Cincy to Houston yesterday, Cincy now several spots below the cut line...DC now doing daily updates, UD's status pretty much does not change unless they have played a game.
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  #511  
Old 03-05-2016, 01:19 PM
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I know Lunardi's area on ESPN's site is really only good for conversation, but...does anybody other than Lunardi truly think Ohio State is one of the first four teams out? Like us, their best win is probably Iowa (though Kentucky was big at the time), but other than that - despite their "late season surge" as ESPN's touting - their resume doesn't seem overly impressive. Using UD Pride's RPI figures - yes, I know RPI isn't everything - OSU is #77 (one spot behind Georgia Tech), 1-6 v. top 25, 2-7 v. top 50, 50th-ranked SOS (thanks, Big Ten!), 4-5 away, 1-1 neutral.
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  #512  
Old 03-05-2016, 01:26 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Not even close. That dummy has LSU there too. LSU isnt remotely close
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  #513  
Old 03-05-2016, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
does anybody other than Lunardi truly think Ohio State is one of the first four teams out?
tOSU not passing the "eye test" being down by 15-20 to Michigan State with about 9 minutes left.
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  #514  
Old 03-05-2016, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill202 View Post
tOSU not passing the "eye test" being down by 15-20 to Michigan State with about 9 minutes left.
The other news from that game is that DJ Carstensen is working it so he won't be doing ours tonight. Hooray!

Vandy also looking awful and not helping us out.
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  #515  
Old 03-05-2016, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
Dayton Basketball ‏@DaytonMBB
Dayton's 8 road wins this year are the most in the @Archie_Miller era. Most regular season road wins since 1966-67.
...and we all know how the 1966-67 season ended. We can only hope that lightning strikes twice!
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  #516  
Old 03-05-2016, 03:56 PM
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Dayton's seed will be influenced just as much by how Vandy and Monmouth finish as how Dayton finishes. And possibly how Iowa, St Bonnie, GW, W&M, Davidson, & Alabama finish. Committee overweights top 50 wins massively.

Dayton at 4-3 right now top 50 (1-3 last year). Easily could go down to 2-3 if Vandy 45 and Monmouth 50 fall out. Need Iowa and St Bonnie to get back top 25 and hopefully GW, W&M, Davidson, or Alabama sneak back into top 50.

People who monitor closely say top 50 has huge impact in committee room and yes makes no difference whether beat 49 or 51 statistically, but when committee compares teams and sees 4-3 versus 2-3, it matters massively.

Root for the teams above to finish strong. Key for Dayton's seed!
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  #517  
Old 03-05-2016, 04:22 PM
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Please stop the bubble talk, DAYTON IS NOT A BUBBLE TEAM IN 2016!

THIS THREAD SHOULD NOW BE ALL ABOUT SEED!

According to advanced analytics, the 2015 team was 44 out of 46 tourney teams whereas committee had Dayton 46 -- Dayton was NOT screwed by the committee last year, pretty accurate. Yes this pains me to say that.

UD is a lock even going 0-2, which the Flyers will not. About 20th best resume according to KPI (19) and Dance Card (21) which are accurate in terms of in/out tourney and seeding; 25 teams would have to pass Dayton for the Flyers to not get in. Absolutely not happening in 8 days.

Let's stop the insanity of believing Dayton is on the bubble. Last year Dance Card had Dayton as 2nd OUT so 48 with 46 cut-off & KPI had Dayton 40 and 46 was cut-off. Average together and Dayton was 44 with 46 Cut-off or 3rd to last team in -- definitely bubble and together they were 2 off from actuality (Flyers averaged 44 kpi/dance) and committee ranked Dayton 46.

The committee would have to massively change its criteria for UD to not get in. And despite all of our complaining, the committee has been very consistent the last 10 years.

BTW, I moved Dayton up 2 spots in KPI/Dance Card as SMU & Louisville ahead of the Flyers in both rankings.

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/...curacy-of-kpi/

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm
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  #518  
Old 03-06-2016, 12:27 AM
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27-6 = #4/5 seed with RPI of 13
26-7 = #5/6 seed with RPI 19
25-7 = #5/6 seed with RPI 20
24-7 = #6/7 seed with RPI of 23

Just a quick view, but will think about it overnight. Go Vandy and Monmouth!

Dayton will be between a 4 and 7 seed.

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  #519  
Old 03-06-2016, 07:29 PM
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Wichita State

Can anyone explain to me the drastic difference between Palm's and Lunardi's seed/projection for Wichita State? Did Lunardi make any kind of statement defending his projection? Did the committee chair hint at how he would treat the games they lost when Van Vleet was out?

Lunardi has them as a 7, while Palm has them in the First Four OUT. That's about 14-16 spot difference......almost as wide as the gap on Georgia Tech between ud2 and.........pretty much every other bracket guru out there.

Help me out here......
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  #520  
Old 03-06-2016, 08:23 PM
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0 wins- 7 seed
1 win 6 seed
2 wins 5 seed
3 wins 4 seed

Bump each of those up one line with help
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  #521  
Old 03-06-2016, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
0 wins- 7 seed
1 win 6 seed
2 wins 5 seed
3 wins 4 seed

Bump each of those up one line with help
Ugh we are 24-6. I feel like we should be 6 no matter what.
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  #522  
Old 03-06-2016, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Can anyone explain to me the drastic difference between Palm's and Lunardi's seed/projection for Wichita State? Did Lunardi make any kind of statement defending his projection? Did the committee chair hint at how he would treat the games they lost when Van Vleet was out?

Lunardi has them as a 7, while Palm has them in the First Four OUT. That's about 14-16 spot difference......almost as wide as the gap on Georgia Tech between ud2 and.........pretty much every other bracket guru out there.

Help me out here......
They're probably trying to guess how the committee is going to treat them with respect to the Van vleet injury.

This is similar to how wide the projections were on us last year. If i were the Shockers, that wouldn't make me feel good.I
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TrueTeam View Post
Ugh we are 24-6. I feel like we should be 6 no matter what.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong!
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:32 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
They're probably trying to guess how the committee is going to treat them with respect to the Van vleet injury.

This is similar to how wide the projections were on us last year. If i were the Shockers, that wouldn't make me feel good.I
Don't think the van fleet injury will be much of a factor since their worst 3 losses were with him in the lineup. They don't have a tourney resume. Only 1 win in the top 80 RPI. That's really weak. There are many more deserving teams.
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  #525  
Old 03-06-2016, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Can anyone explain to me the drastic difference between Palm's and Lunardi's seed/projection for Wichita State? Did Lunardi make any kind of statement defending his projection? Did the committee chair hint at how he would treat the games they lost when Van Vleet was out?

Lunardi has them as a 7, while Palm has them in the First Four OUT. That's about 14-16 spot difference......almost as wide as the gap on Georgia Tech between ud2 and.........pretty much every other bracket guru out there.

Help me out here......
Not a definitive answer, but for another data point, Palm and Lunardi have nearly the same disparity for St. Bonnie--Palm showing them as an 8 seed and Joe having them Last 4 in. FWIW, Palm's bracket more closely matches Dance Card: Bonnies safely in at #33 and Wich St on the wrong side of the Bubble at #53. I'd put my money on Palm and Dance Card, knowing that Lunardi will change his brackets at the last minute to match the others.
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  #526  
Old 03-06-2016, 10:35 PM
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Wichita State
---------------
1-3 vs the RPI Top 50
4-7 against the Top 100
SOS is 105
Only win of merit is Utah at Wichita State
They have been playing really well against the 13th ranked RPI conference

If injuries are taken that much into account then we will be a 2 seed because we wouldn't have lost 3 of the last 8 games if Pollard was healthy.
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  #527  
Old 03-06-2016, 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
......almost as wide as the gap on Georgia Tech between ud2 and.........pretty much every other bracket guru out there.
Here, I'm not the only one thinking the way I am thinking...some posters on this thread are also thinking that 2 wins in the ACCT gets GT in the conversation, and 3 wins gets GT an at-large bid.

Anything less than 2 wins in the ACCT almost certainly means the end for GT.

https://stingtalk.com/board/index.ph...n.87121/page-6



Edit: oops, that board requires that you be a member in order for the above link to work...here is a bit of what they are saying:


-Two wins and we'd be in the discussion, but still unlikely. I think it would take three to get an NCAA bid. I believe we have done enough for the NIT bid.


-2 acct wins and we are in IMHO. ACC is strongest league easily. I could see 8 or 9 teams going. And we could easily jump 3 or 4 teams for the tourney. We would have a similar acc record at that point.


-Two wins over Miami and Clemson with another game against UVA would bump the RPI up significantly. The committee usually weighs the last ten games more heavily to reward hot teams. That could work in our favor. I think we likely need three wins to really have a shot but two wins at least gets our name out there as possible.


-Figured it would be good to consolidate postseason discussion that's taking place in other threads. A week ago the postseason was an afterthought in my mind sitting at 12-11 (2-8). But wins against WF, @FSU, and ND (sandwiched around an @Clemson loss) brings the possibility back to the table - albeit still unlikely statistically speaking.

I'd think that winning out to get to 19-12 (9-9) would put us on the right side of the bubble heading into the ACCT needing a win to be confident heading into selection sunday. 20 wins and .500 in the best conference is likely to get you into the dance.


- Still think we need 2 wins in the ACCT to be in the discussion.


-We need to get 2 wins in the ACC tourney to have a realistic shot at the big show.


-We need to beat Pitt, at least win 2-3 games in the ACCT...


-We have to go 2-1 in the next 3 to even have a chance. If we beat Pitt and BC and lose @ Louisville, I think we'd have to win 2 or 3 in the ACC tourney to have a shot.

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Old 03-06-2016, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Wichita State
---------------
1-3 vs the RPI Top 50
4-7 against the Top 100
SOS is 105
Only win of merit is Utah at Wichita State
They have been playing really well against the 13th ranked RPI conference

If injuries are taken that much into account then we will be a 2 seed because we wouldn't have lost 3 of the last 8 games if Pollard was healthy.
Wich St is now 1-4 vs Top 50, with RPI of 47. For comparison, last year UD was 1-3 against Top 50 with RPI of 33..and we were the last team in.
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  #529  
Old 03-06-2016, 11:33 PM
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Wichita St more about whether committee relies more heavily on metrics like kenpom.

W is #11 kenpom, #24 BPI, #32 LMRC, #39 KPi, #53 Dance Card, and #24 Sagarin.

Wichita St should NOT be in based upon wins and losses. They have 1 top 75 RPI win.

If they get in, it will encourage teams to play their starters up 30 as you want to maximize points per offensive possession and minimize points allowed in the advanced analytics -- winning and losing doesn't matter much if at all. I hope the committee does not go down this road.

Dayton had a much much better resume as last team during 2015 than Wichita State has in 2016. I like them as fellow high mid-major, but would be an epic fail if they are in tourney.
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:02 AM
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Patrick Stevens has Dayton as a #6, but says even if win A-10 unlikely higher seed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...oks-right-now/
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:15 AM
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5-7 Seed

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
27-6 = #4/5 seed with RPI of 13
26-7 = #5/6 seed with RPI 19
25-7 = #5/6 seed with RPI 20
24-7 = #6/7 seed with RPI of 23

Just a quick view, but will think about it overnight. Go Vandy and Monmouth!

Dayton will be between a 4 and 7 seed.
Reviewing teams today ahead and below Dayton on the S curve, I believe 90% chance Dayton will be between a 5 and 7 seed. More likely an 8 than a 4, but both extreme outliers. Pretty locked into the 5, 6, 7 range or 17 to 28 range on the S curve.

If season ended today, Dayton is a 6.
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Old 03-07-2016, 06:58 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Wichita State
---------------
1-3 vs the RPI Top 50
4-7 against the Top 100
SOS is 105
Only win of merit is Utah at Wichita State
They have been playing really well against the 13th ranked RPI conference

If injuries are taken that much into account then we will be a 2 seed because we wouldn't have lost 3 of the last 8 games if Pollard was healthy.
It is my understanding that injuries can be used to enhance a teams resume for getting in but that it does not enhance their seeding.

I fundamentally disagree with the whole injury thing anyway because there is no way to prove that a team would have better results without the injury. Is it likely they would be better, perhaps, but is it possible they would still lose those games, you bet.

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Old 03-07-2016, 07:02 AM
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I agree. Wichita State did nothing to impress me as a tournament team. Everyone deals with injuries.
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Old 03-07-2016, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Patrick Stevens has Dayton as a #6, but says even if win A-10 unlikely higher seed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...oks-right-now/
I disagree, I think UD will get a 1 or 2 seed bump if they win the A10T, if UD wins out, then I think UD will be maybe a 4 seed. Seems like UD right now is maybe a 5-6 seed.

There is a huge rpi difference between losing the first A10T game, 31 rpi, and winning the A10T, 10 rpi, but I'm not sure how much you go up or down depending on your A10T performance.

Seems like good A10T performances help your seed some, but bad A10T performances don't really hurt you much if you are already in the NCAAT field going into the A10T. Seems like you can play your way into the NCAAT through the conference tournament, but you can not play your way out of the NCAAT if you are already in.

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  #535  
Old 03-07-2016, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
It is my understanding that injuries can be used to enhance a teams resume for getting in but that it does not enhance their seeding.

I fundamentally disagree with the whole injury thing anyway because there is no way to prove that a team would have better results without the injury. Is it likely they would be better, perhaps, but is it possible they would still lose those games, you bet.
I've heard the opposite from several talking heads and speaking about their experience w/ the NCAA mock selection process in Indy. They get the sense that you get into the dance based upon merit, injuries only come into consideration when you start talking about seeding and scrubbing one team against the next where you might say "yeah well 3 of their losses were w/o this key player, while the other team we are comparing them to was healthy all year"....

at any rate, Wichita St is an interesting case, if not for their recent success, we likely wouldn't give them much consideration at all. However, most recognize that when completely healthy, they are a dangerous bunch. They clearly have not accomplished much on the court that would scream NCAA tournament worthy resume , but coming from the Valley they got 0 chances at big conference wins and only potential land mines, and as any A10 fan knows, that is a difficult proposition to navigate. I don't care who you are, nor what conference you are in, its really, really difficult to make it thru an entire conference season w/o dropping a game or two. WSU is every Valley team's "big opponent" the one the students circle on their calendar and get all amped up for. The team that opposing teams are going to beat and "shock the world". I hate to ding a team in that situation too much since UD is often in a similar boat in regards to the A10. I kind of hope they get in, mostly b/c they are from the Valley, but if it was an identical resume for a UCLA of the world, I'd be rooting like crazy for their exclusion

On a side note, perhaps getting left out would be an impetuous for Gregg Marshall taking another job, which maybe keeps Archie around a little longer, though I'm not sure any "big" jobs open up this season that either would willingly jump at.
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:47 AM
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A big coaching job may open because someone retires or goes to the NBA.
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:49 AM
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I don't know why I find myself rooting against Wich St's inclusion in NCAAT. They deserve it more than - Cincy, UConn, Tulsa, Vandy, Syracuse, S Carolina.
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
A big coaching job may open because someone retires or goes to the NBA.
I could see the retirement - Pitino? Not sure about NBA. I think the job Brad Stevens is doing in Boston will have NBA teams looking at college coaches but I think it has to be the right, fairly young guy. Both Archie and Mack would fit the young description but I don't think they are right for NBA. Who else do you think would be possibilities?
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Old 03-07-2016, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I agree. Wichita State did nothing to impress me as a tournament team. Everyone deals with injuries.
Todays Bracketology has Wichita State safely in as a 7 seed...same as UD.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

OSU is in the 'first-4-out'...interesting.
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Old 03-07-2016, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Todays Bracketology has Wichita State safely in as a 7 seed...same as UD.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

OSU is in the 'first-4-out'...interesting.
Thanks. I haven't watched them enough to know what is warrated, but I am curious. does anyone know if giving a 7 seed to a team 48 in the RPI would be unprecedented? that is usually the 50/50 bubble RPI.
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Old 03-07-2016, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Todays Bracketology has Wichita State safely in as a 7 seed...same as UD.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

OSU is in the 'first-4-out'...interesting.
I listened to a Gary Parrish podcast on the Wich St. Very interesting that Lunardi and Palm are on opposite sides of the argument. Palm has them first four out. Wich St is 10 on Ken Pom which is the argument to include them. Flyers at 57. Are we on the bubble now?

I don't have a problem putting Wich St in if it means leaving out the 6 or 7 team in a p5 conference. I have a problem if Joes or Bonnies are the one left out.
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Old 03-07-2016, 01:35 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The latest DC is out...Cincy's win over SMU yesterday was huge for them, I think that win punched their ticket to the tournament...they moved up 13 spots on that one win alone, going from #52 to #39.
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Old 03-07-2016, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The latest DC is out...Cincy's win over SMU yesterday was huge for them, I think that win punched their ticket to the tournament...they moved up 13 spots on that one win alone, going from #52 to #39.
UD beats VCU to give us 5 top 50 wins...and we drop 3 spots in Dance Card. The computer shows no mercy.
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Old 03-07-2016, 05:59 PM
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Dayton is going to be in on the initial ballot. There are 36 at-large bids. They initially put 36 teams in. Every time one of those 36 teams wins an automatic bid, they add another team. Dayton will be in the initial 36. They're in no matter what.

I also think the committee will take Wichita State. I think a #7 seed seems a little high, but I do think they'll be in, and they'll be inside the First Four.

Two people can look at the same data and end up in different places. You could look at Wichita State and conclude that they don't belong in at all. Someone else could look at them and take them on the initial ballot.

The reason I think they go in is because they are strong in two areas that I believe individuals on this committee will strongly value. Their OOC SOS is 11th, and they have nine true road wins. I think individuals on this committee will look very favorably on teams who played strong OOC schedules, and who won a lot of road games. On top of that, they were a first place finisher, and they were ranked in the top 25, which doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it does indicate that the NABC voters may like them as well.

Bracketologists tend to look at the same data the same way every year. I don't think they stop to think about how the individuals on the committee will look at the data. I think this committee will look favorably on Wichita's data. I don't know that for sure, but I'm guessing that they will.
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  #545  
Old 03-07-2016, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Reviewing teams today ahead and below Dayton on the S curve, I believe 90% chance Dayton will be between a 5 and 7 seed. More likely an 8 than a 4, but both extreme outliers. Pretty locked into the 5, 6, 7 range or 17 to 28 range on the S curve.

If season ended today, Dayton is a 6.
Since we should be a 5-7, the committee will probably give us an 8 or 9.
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  #546  
Old 03-07-2016, 07:45 PM
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Brew,

Can you explain Monmouth to me? I have great respect for them going on the road or playing a neutral game for everyone one of their OOC games except for one.

So, road games and top 50 and top 100 games seem to weighted heavily.

So for example, that would explain some teams from the Big East and American getting at-large bids even though their rpi's and sos's are not great.

I can better understand p5 teams with not great rpi's getting bids because they have great sos's.

Monmouth's rpi and sos are not that great, so how much weight is given to road wins and top 50/100 wins?

Their sos is way up there at 176, and a 47 rpi is not great, but yet Dance Card has them in at this point.

Monmouth resume:

rpi 47
sos 176
1-25: 0-1
26-50: 2-1
50-100: 2-1

They have 3 200+ losses though.

Dance Card has them in at this point at #47, #49 is the last team in.

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  #547  
Old 03-07-2016, 08:02 PM
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Monmouth's BRI is #1.
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  #548  
Old 03-07-2016, 08:32 PM
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I'm thinking Monmouth is in either way. It wouldn't shock me if they were left out, but I think their chances are better than fifty percent. They have 17 wins away from home, and 13 of those are true road wins. Their SOS won't hurt them too much because the conference dragged it down, and because they played so many road games and I think the committee realizes it was a tougher schedule than the SOS rating indicates.

They honestly don't impress me much, at least not in the last few weeks. They've played well in the tournament, but their shot selection has been terrible. But, if I had to guess, I'd guess the committee would take them.
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  #549  
Old 03-07-2016, 09:12 PM
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Monmouth just lost to Iona in the conference title game
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
Monmouth just lost to Iona in the conference title game
A real killer was a late technical called by DJ Cartensen on a Monmouth player for taunting. Pretty weak call from my view. Cost Monmouth 2 points and really impacted the game.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:37 PM
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Who else is rooting for Wright State to win the Horizon tournament along with a Flyers A10 tournament championship? Would make for a great 5 v 12 matchup, no?
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Dayton is going to be in on the initial ballot. There are 36 at-large bids. They initially put 36 teams in. Every time one of those 36 teams wins an automatic bid, they add another team. Dayton will be in the initial 36. They're in no matter what.

I also think the committee will take Wichita State. I think a #7 seed seems a little high, but I do think they'll be in, and they'll be inside the First Four.

Two people can look at the same data and end up in different places. You could look at Wichita State and conclude that they don't belong in at all. Someone else could look at them and take them on the initial ballot.

The reason I think they go in is because they are strong in two areas that I believe individuals on this committee will strongly value. Their OOC SOS is 11th, and they have nine true road wins. I think individuals on this committee will look very favorably on teams who played strong OOC schedules, and who won a lot of road games. On top of that, they were a first place finisher, and they were ranked in the top 25, which doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it does indicate that the NABC voters may like them as well.

Bracketologists tend to look at the same data the same way every year. I don't think they stop to think about how the individuals on the committee will look at the data. I think this committee will look favorably on Wichita's data. I don't know that for sure, but I'm guessing that they will.
Having a strong OOC SOS is definitely important, but they didn't win many. Their best win was at his me to Utah, which is their only top 75 win. That usually doesn't get a bid.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Who else is rooting for Wright State to win the Horizon tournament along with a Flyers A10 tournament championship? Would make for a great 5 v 12 matchup, no?
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with an RPI ~140 they are going to be a 15 or 16 seed.
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Old 03-07-2016, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Who else is rooting for Wright State to win the Horizon tournament along with a Flyers A10 tournament championship? Would make for a great 5 v 12 matchup, no?
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I assume you're kidding about WSU being a 12 seed. Not even close. We might play them if we were a 1 or 2 seed. And, no, I'm not rooting for them.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Here, I'm not the only one thinking the way I am thinking...some posters on this thread are also thinking that 2 wins in the ACCT gets GT in the conversation, and 3 wins gets GT an at-large bid.

Anything less than 2 wins in the ACCT almost certainly means the end for GT.

https://stingtalk.com/board/index.ph...n.87121/page-6



Edit: oops, that board requires that you be a member in order for the above link to work...here is a bit of what they are saying:


-Two wins and we'd be in the discussion, but still unlikely. I think it would take three to get an NCAA bid. I believe we have done enough for the NIT bid.


-2 acct wins and we are in IMHO. ACC is strongest league easily. I could see 8 or 9 teams going. And we could easily jump 3 or 4 teams for the tourney. We would have a similar acc record at that point.


-Two wins over Miami and Clemson with another game against UVA would bump the RPI up significantly. The committee usually weighs the last ten games more heavily to reward hot teams. That could work in our favor. I think we likely need three wins to really have a shot but two wins at least gets our name out there as possible.


-Figured it would be good to consolidate postseason discussion that's taking place in other threads. A week ago the postseason was an afterthought in my mind sitting at 12-11 (2-8). But wins against WF, @FSU, and ND (sandwiched around an @Clemson loss) brings the possibility back to the table - albeit still unlikely statistically speaking.

I'd think that winning out to get to 19-12 (9-9) would put us on the right side of the bubble heading into the ACCT needing a win to be confident heading into selection sunday. 20 wins and .500 in the best conference is likely to get you into the dance.


- Still think we need 2 wins in the ACCT to be in the discussion.


-We need to get 2 wins in the ACC tourney to have a realistic shot at the big show.


-We need to beat Pitt, at least win 2-3 games in the ACCT...


-We have to go 2-1 in the next 3 to even have a chance. If we beat Pitt and BC and lose @ Louisville, I think we'd have to win 2 or 3 in the ACC tourney to have a shot.
So you went to the Georgia Tech message board to find some unbiased supporters of your theory? Good call......
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:07 AM
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As far as Wichita State is concerned, I'd like some of what Joey Brackets is smoking. A 7 seed, same as Dayton??? Give me a break. 1-3 vs. 5-3 against the Top 50, 4-7 vs. 9-4 against the Top 100. And 2 of those 4 wins are against Evansville, who is barely in the Top 100. What have they done exactly that is so tournament worthy? What am I missing?

How much credit do they deserve for missing a player? There is no guarantee they would have won the games he missed, so why do they deserve ANY credit? As I see it, they may be BARELY good enough to make the Dance....if they do their first game should be IN DAYTON.

SMH

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Old 03-08-2016, 06:30 AM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
A real killer was a late technical called by DJ Cartensen on a Monmouth player for taunting. Pretty weak call from my view. Cost Monmouth 2 points and really impacted the game.

30 seconds before the well-earned 'T' a foul was called on Monmouth and #0 as well as a bench player were jumping up and down throwing a unbelievable tantrum about it. Why they both weren't T'd up right there shows you the patience the officials had with them. During the Iona FT's you could see the Monmouth coach talking to #0 in an attempt to calm him down. Next possession #0 drives to the hoop, makes a shot and immediately gets in an Iona player's face.

Knowing the pressure of the game, the time left (2:00 min), having to split up 2 bigs earlier after a mixup under the basket and understanding that these 2 teams got into a fight earlier in the season, only an idiot official would ignore this 'test' and opportunity to gain control of the game.

It was the right call at the right time...unless you want to say he should have T'd #0 up when he threw the tantrum.
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  #558  
Old 03-08-2016, 06:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
with an RPI ~140 they are going to be a 15 or 16 seed.
While I understand Wright State as a 12-seed is stretch, I can guarantee you that if they will tonight, they will not be a 16-seed. I was just trying to find the highest probability scenario where the two could be matched up in the first round. In reality, they would be a 14-seed in my opinion.

Hey, maybe a field of 32 matchup? Wright State knocks off a 3-seed, we get in as a 6. I'd love to see that and all snobs on here get their panties in a bunch.
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:46 AM
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What exactly is Ken Pomeroy smoking? Whatever it is, I don't want any of it. Ken Pom currently has UD at #57!

That's not "On the bubble" or "First four out" that's "Out to f*ckin' lunch."

Fortunately, the Committee doesn't buy what Kenny is selling. As Chris tweeted yesterday:

Pomeroy rankings practically irrelevant in the NCAA War Room. How do we know? We've been there.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:10 AM
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*the 1st step was getting us in this group

Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Who else is rooting for Wright State to win the Horizon tournament along with a Flyers A10 tournament championship? Would make for a great 5 v 12 matchup, no?
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UD, _avier, UC, Wright State...this would be the 2nd step* to make SW Ohio the basketball capital of the World...something all of us should want. Recruits pay attention to all the details, not just the cheerleaders!
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
What exactly is Ken Pomeroy smoking? Whatever it is, I don't want any of it. Ken Pom currently has UD at #57!

That's not "On the bubble" or "First four out" that's "Out to f*ckin' lunch."

Fortunately, the Committee doesn't buy what Kenny is selling. As Chris tweeted yesterday:

Pomeroy rankings practically irrelevant in the NCAA War Room. How do we know? We've been there.
It's a metric just like many others. He doesn't have an "on the bubble" or "first four out" list on his site. You know KenPom is all based on numbers and not just wins and losses. And the committee admitted that it did matter (even if it was just for seeding) in last year's tournament.

Dayton is obviously clearly in the tournament (probably around the 6 line). The KenPom numbers are low because our last few wins have been by 1 point or in overtime and our losses have been piling up by 7+ points. Don't get angry at math.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Monmouth's BRI is #1.
CBS's production group is definitely dropping frequent, casual hints around all the selection committee members. Some young production assistant's already working on a bench celebration highlight package to show during their 60 Minutes-like story on the long road from practice tackling dummies to broadcast darlings. Meanwhile, since Monmouth lost, another staffer is trying to lineup local satellite trucks for live shots from Monmouth's selection show viewing party.

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Old 03-08-2016, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
While I understand Wright State as a 12-seed is stretch, I can guarantee you that if they will tonight, they will not be a 16-seed. I was just trying to find the highest probability scenario where the two could be matched up in the first round. In reality, they would be a 14-seed in my opinion.

Hey, maybe a field of 32 matchup? Wright State knocks off a 3-seed, we get in as a 6. I'd love to see that and all snobs on here get their panties in a bunch.
Alright, let's do this. Where would Wright State be if they win tonight?

Last night, Chattanooga was the first #1 seed to win their conference tournament. And that's out of 7 completed, not including the Ivy League.

Here are the conference champs of the 1 bid leagues, the best RPI possible of those that aren't decided yet, and their RPIs, along with Wright State for comparison:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Wright State will probably get up to about 130 or so RPI with a win tonight.

Their absolute ceiling is a 14 with a lot of conference tourney upsets. But they are likely looking at a 15, and MAYBE a 16 if the committee is feeling cranky.
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Old 03-08-2016, 08:22 AM
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Monmouth, Valpo, Wich St will all make for some interesting discussion before and after the selection show. Some talking heads pimping for the little guy, others for the p5. Again, I have no problem with those three taking out the loser of the Syracuse-Pitt game. I have a problem if it is Joes or SBU or VCU that loses out.
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Old 03-08-2016, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
It's a metric just like many others. He doesn't have an "on the bubble" or "first four out" list on his site. You know KenPom is all based on numbers and not just wins and losses. And the committee admitted that it did matter (even if it was just for seeding) in last year's tournament.

Dayton is obviously clearly in the tournament (probably around the 6 line). The KenPom numbers are low because our last few wins have been by 1 point or in overtime and our losses have been piling up by 7+ points. Don't get angry at math.
You just pointed out the major flaw of Kenpom. They weigh margin of victory or loss heavily. Would you rather have 24 wins by an average of 4 points or 18 wins by an average of 18 points? Under Kenpom the 18 win team is given a higher rating. Makes no sense. You either win or lose-period.
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Old 03-08-2016, 08:56 AM
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Valpo won't stay in the discussion long
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Old 03-08-2016, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
So you went to the Georgia Tech message board to find some unbiased supporters of your theory? Good call......
The Dance Card also refutes what you've been saying, and the Dance Card is unbiased. I brought the Dance Card refutation up earlier, and you never responded.

Cincy moved up 13 spots on the DC on the SMU win alone. Had GT beaten Louisville, it is very likely that GT would be on the right side of the bubble on the DC. Prior to the Cincy loss by SMU, I think Louisville had a better ranking on the DC than SMU did, so GT may have moved up more than 13 spots.

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Old 03-08-2016, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
You just pointed out the major flaw of Kenpom. They weigh margin of victory or loss heavily. Would you rather have 24 wins by an average of 4 points or 18 wins by an average of 18 points? Under Kenpom the 18 win team is given a higher rating. Makes no sense. You either win or lose-period.
We have metrics that weight wins/losses more. That's not the point of the KenPom metric. It's more of a predictor than looking back on games. And every metric has its flaw.

Last year Dayton was #37 in KenPom. Hate to break it to all the advanced metric haters out there but KenPom helped get Dayton in the tournament.

Again, its not the only metric the committee uses but it is without a doubt one of them. And we have a chance to improve that metric (and all others) even more this weekend.
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:17 AM
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a good read

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...monmouth-valpo
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The Dance Card also refutes what you've been saying, and the Dance Card is unbiased. I brought the Dance Card refutation up earlier, and you never responded.

Cincy moved up 13 spots on the DC on the SMU win alone. Had GT beaten Louisville, it is very likely that GT would be on the right side of the bubble on the DC. Prior to the Cincy loss by SMU, I think Louisville had a better ranking on the DC than SMU did, so GT may have moved up more than 13 spots.
So right now, according to ESPN's Bubble Watch (ESPN being probably the most recognized sports media conglomerate on the globe), doesn't even list Georgia Tech in the discussion. This is a column committed to covering the teams that are within striking distance of earning a bid. And you're saying that had GT won at Louisville, they would be on the right side of the bubble. A one game swing? Takes them from off the grid to the right side of the bubble.

Brother, you've lost it.............
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
So right now, according to ESPN's Bubble Watch (ESPN being probably the most recognized sports media conglomerate on the globe), doesn't even list Georgia Tech in the discussion. This is a column committed to covering the teams that are within striking distance of earning a bid. And you're saying that had GT won at Louisville, they would be on the right side of the bubble. A one game swing? Takes them from off the grid to the right side of the bubble.

Brother, you've lost it.............
Why are you placing so much faith in ESPN or any of the other popular bracketologists? They all totally blew the call on UD last year.

UD was the very last team in. Everybody else had UD as a 8 or 9 or 10? I think.

Why is it so hard to believe that DC is once again right, and everybody else is wrong?

That is exactly what happened last year.
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
We have metrics that weight wins/losses more. That's not the point of the KenPom metric. It's more of a predictor than looking back on games. And every metric has its flaw.

Last year Dayton was #37 in KenPom. Hate to break it to all the advanced metric haters out there but KenPom helped get Dayton in the tournament.

Again, its not the only metric the committee uses but it is without a doubt one of them. And we have a chance to improve that metric (and all others) even more this weekend.
KPI is a far better predictor of seeding based upon resume.http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/...curacy-of-kpi/
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  #573  
Old 03-08-2016, 09:44 AM
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Put me in the camp with UD2 that would like to see GT earn a bid...and why not?

They beat VCU
and Virginia
and Notre Dame
and Pitt.

tOSU is on the bubble and GT has a better RPI...

Yeah, GT also have some interesting losses, but so does everyone else on the bubble. And if pitted head to head against VCU, it'll all come down to how they performed in their Conference Tournaments.
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  #574  
Old 03-08-2016, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Why are you placing so much faith in ESPN or any of the other popular bracketologists? They all totally blew the call on UD last year.

UD was the very last team in. Everybody else had UD as a 8 or 9 or 10? I think.

Why is it so hard to believe that DC is once again right, and everybody else is wrong?

That is exactly what happened last year.
Because it's not common that everybody else is way off. Has it happened before? Sure, but it's not frequent. You're putting all your eggs in a Georgia Tech basket that Dance Card has discovered something that every other basketball stats and nitty gritty gurus are overlooking. If you're looking to find THAT team - consider Wichita St., tOSU, LSU or Monmouth.

Here's the Georgia Tech summary, and the humorous truth behind your suggestion - they're not good enough to even get your theory a test case (by winning 2 or 3 games in the ACC).
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Because it's not common that everybody else is way off. Has it happened before? Sure, but it's not frequent. Here's the Georgia Tech summary, and the humorous truth behind your suggestion - they're not good enough to even get your theory a test case (by winning 2 or 3 games in the ACC).
I do not know the history of the DC's accuracy. I will again say that had GT beaten Louisville, then GT would in fact be on the right side of the bubble on the DC, I have little doubt about that.

And I disagree about the ACCT, GT has already beaten both Clemson and Virginia, those 2 teams are their opponents in the ACCT. If they beat Clemson then they play Virginia in the next game.

Why is it so hard to believe that they could beat 2 teams in the ACCT that they have beaten once already?

GT will be hungry knowing that they can play themselves into the NCAAT, Clemson needs to win the ACCT to get a bid so they are a definite longshot, Virginia might not be hungry, Virginia is already in the NCAAT.
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  #576  
Old 03-08-2016, 10:14 AM
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Did something with my NCAA basketball nervous energy today:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Georgia Tech could get in if they win 3 straight. Considering who they'd have to beat, their RPI would get into the 40's with 3 wins, and their top-100 record would be 7-12.

I think St. Bonaventure and St. Joe's are safe. Bona doesn't want to test that with an opening round loss, but I think they're in, and in with an 8/9 seed right now.

VCU is the team that really needs a semifinal win.

I think if we do make the A10 final, we could get up to a 4 seed. KPI metric really likes us, and it has been a strong seed-predictor in the past.

The teams with an Auto under Bid-type are the teams that are really going to hurt someone if they lose a game. Closest to the bubble are St. Mary's, San Diego State, and Cincinnati... so close that if they all lose in their conference tournament, I wouldn't feel great about getting in.

If I were picking, I would say the last 5 in as of now are: Vanderbilt, Wichita State, UConn, Syracuse, and VCU.

First 4 out are Tulsa, Valpo, Monmouth, and Florida.

Stanford is an interesting dark horse that no one is talking about that could make it if they go 2-1 in their conference tournament. RPI could be in the 50's with a 16-15 record, and a 9-15 vs. the top-100.

South Carolina is the one team that I could see slipping right out of it at the end of the day. Horrific non-conference schedule, and not many top-50 games. They need a win in the SEC tournament to sew it up.

Lastly, how about Monmouth playing 23 road/neutral games? They went 17-6 away from home.

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  #577  
Old 03-08-2016, 11:20 AM
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Personal opinion, is that Monmouth will be in.

I like priceg's read on things. I'm rooting for VCU, and i agree that So Carolina needs a big win or two to lock it up.
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Old 03-08-2016, 11:51 AM
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OK, I will step up and defend Ken Pomeroy a bit here. I am not a "Kenpom-pom", but I do appreciate the stats he publishes. All of the data below shows our rankings in his system before each game (hence why current is different than the VCU data). What people need to remember about his rankings is that he generates efficiency data. In other words, he is attempting to put a number around how good on offense and defense each team is for any given possession. The data shows his overall rank, his Adjusted Offense rank, his Adjusted Defense rank, and his Adjusted Tempo rank. What stands out to me is that we have seen the least amount of variability in our defense and tempo over the last 10 games. Obviously, offense has been erratic and taken somewhat of a nose dive. The data shows all of that. Our current overall rank in his system in 20 spots lower than it was 10 games ago. That almost matches how far we have dropped in the polls, so I don't quite get why KenPom is taking such a bashing. While I don't like the fact that we are so low in his rankings, I respect the math behind it all.

Code:

Dayton's Kenpom Rank Numbers Before Each Game
----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|
               Overall            AdjO            AdjD           AdjT
Opponent         Rank             Rank            Rank           Rank
----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|
LAS               37               96              24             246
GM                37              105              15             276
DUQ               32               76              17             269
URI               40               87              20             255
SJU               37               84              20             245 
SBU               41               85              23             241
SLU               49              100              28             231
URI               50              139              13             235
UR                56              136              21             229
VCU               56              118              27             221
CURRENT           57              132              19             222
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  #579  
Old 03-08-2016, 11:56 AM
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KenPom is a system based on the actual game scores. Flyers winning a lot of close games means they won't be as high up as their record might indicate.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:15 PM
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A win is still a win is the point. How do they fugre a game that is an anomaly where the better statistical team actually loses?
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:20 PM
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These guys quantity to the 9th decimal point things that are pretty much not quantifiable at all. But **** they are accurate!
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:32 PM
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kenpom does some very good statistical work. However, his rating system - unlike the RPI - uses margin of victory in its calculation. The ESPN BPI does the same. IMHOP, for that reason they should be ignored for bracketology purposes.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I will again say that had GT beaten Louisville, then GT would in fact be on the right side of the bubble on the DC, I have little doubt about that.
Ironically, I wish I had a nickel for every time I had a thought just like this when BG coached us. If we had just won that one game we would be a part of the discussion. . . .

GT also beat Tennessee (#150) at home by 2 in a game where UT didn't score for the last several possessions, and had GT lost that game we would not be talking about any reasonable scenario where they make the NCAAT.

You are who your record says you are. They lost.
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  #584  
Old 03-08-2016, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I do not know the history of the DC's accuracy. I will again say that had GT beaten Louisville, then GT would in fact be on the right side of the bubble on the DC, I have little doubt about that.

And I disagree about the ACCT, GT has already beaten both Clemson and Virginia, those 2 teams are their opponents in the ACCT. If they beat Clemson then they play Virginia in the next game.

Why is it so hard to believe that they could beat 2 teams in the ACCT that they have beaten once already?

GT will be hungry knowing that they can play themselves into the NCAAT, Clemson needs to win the ACCT to get a bid so they are a definite longshot, Virginia might not be hungry, Virginia is already in the NCAAT.
Dance Card says it all. It's so good, the NCAA may actually just do away with the selection committee altogether. It's a mere puppet regime with a bunch of unnecessary fluff and expense.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:54 PM
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@MattNolander: Spoke w/ the chair of sel cmte this AM and asked him point blank, "Do you have a subscription to KenPom?" He said he looks at it every day.
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  #586  
Old 03-08-2016, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by MDFlyer View Post
@MattNolander: Spoke w/ the chair of sel cmte this AM and asked him point blank, "Do you have a subscription to KenPom?" He said he looks at it every day.
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The NCAA pays for it. They get a subscription to every reputable site out there.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:13 PM
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kenpom is really useful and I am a big fan of advanced analytics -- Archie looks at it daily as well. Great predictor of future games but wins and losses do NOT impact the ratings. Theoretically, a team could go 0-30 versus top 20 teams losing by 1 every game and be ranked like #1-10 in kenpom. All about points scored per offensive possession and points allowed per defensive possession adjusted for quality of opponent.

So a couple points:
(1) If selection committee relies too heavily on kenpom, it will encourage teams to blow out other teams which is the wrong result for college athletics.
(2) if committee relies too heavily on kenpom, wins and loses don't matter as much which again is crazy. Up 6 with 3 seconds left, you would full court press so that other team does not score which again is odd.
(3) most people misuse kenpom. He has some great blogs about importance of home, neutral, and away wins. http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...y/tiers_of_joy Beating 90 away equivalent of 50 neutral equivalent of 20 home. Instead of focusing on top 50 wins, committee needs to focus on A wins (top 50 wins adjusted by location) and B wins (51-100 wins adjusted by location). Dayton is 4-2 A wins and 4-0 B wins so 8-2 A/B wins which is one of the top 20 records in the nation. Notre Dame is 5-6 A games and 2-2 B games so 7-8 overall. Clearly Dayton at 8-2 > 8-7 in wins/losses versus Notre Dame but most bracketologists don't consider enough home/neutral/away and ND gets a lot of top 50 games (not adjusted by location) at home.

kenpom must be used correctly, particularly about location of the game and must remember that wins/losses have zero impact on kenpom.
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  #588  
Old 03-08-2016, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
What exactly is Ken Pomeroy smoking? Whatever it is, I don't want any of it. Ken Pom currently has UD at #57!

That's not "On the bubble" or "First four out" that's "Out to f*ckin' lunch."

Fortunately, the Committee doesn't buy what Kenny is selling. As Chris tweeted yesterday:

Pomeroy rankings practically irrelevant in the NCAA War Room. How do we know? We've been there.
RPI is primary tool because when committee sees nitty gritty reports and comparisons they use top 50/100 wins, etc. all based upon RPI.

However, last two years widely reported that kenpom, LMRC, Sagarin, KPI, and BPI are used more frequently by the committee including for seeding.

BTW, KPI actually is a system designed to see who should make it and what seed they should be. More information at kpisports.net -- Dayton #15 on KPI rankings http://www.kpisports.net/rankings/kpibasketball/ which were the most accurate in terms of seeding in 2015 tourney. KPI only missed 2 teams last year by more than 10 spots in their S curve. http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/...curacy-of-kpi/ Which would mean Dayton should be no lower than #25 (best 7 seed) as long as Dayton is not 2/68 outlier.

Kenpom ratings are not based upon who should be in, predictive ratings on future games. All about offensive points scored per possession and defensive points allowed per possession.
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  #589  
Old 03-08-2016, 04:20 PM
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It seems like it should be used more for seeding than for who actually gets an at large bid.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Did something with my NCAA basketball nervous energy today:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Georgia Tech could get in if they win 3 straight. Considering who they'd have to beat, their RPI would get into the 40's with 3 wins, and their top-100 record would be 7-12.
Not according to SLUFLYER...according to SLUFLYER, GT has no chance except to win the ACCT.

Very nice Google Document BTW.


Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Dance Card says it all. It's so good, the NCAA may actually just do away with the selection committee altogether. It's a mere puppet regime with a bunch of unnecessary fluff and expense.
I think they are the most accurate one out there for quite a while now.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Not according to SLUFLYER...according to SLUFLYER, GT has no chance except to win the ACCT.

Very nice Google Document BTW.




I think they are the most accurate one out there for quite a while now.
I think you'll find that KPI is more accurate than DC, although I like DC.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Not according to SLUFLYER...according to SLUFLYER, GT has no chance except to win the ACCT.

Very nice Google Document BTW.

I think they are the most accurate one out there for quite a while now.
Hey, I started a thread devoted to this discussion - use it.
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C-time (03-08-2016)
  #593  
Old 03-08-2016, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
kenpom does some very good statistical work. However, his rating system - unlike the RPI - uses margin of victory in its calculation. The ESPN BPI does the same. IMHOP, for that reason they should be ignored for bracketology purposes.
Why? If I beat team A by 50, and you beat them by 1, I'm probably better. If the same happens for team B C and D, I'm certainly better.

There needs to be a diminishing returns principle in place to account for running up the score/injuries/resting starters/etc., but MOV is a legitimate metric with which to compare teams.
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  #594  
Old 03-08-2016, 05:48 PM
TrueTeam TrueTeam is offline
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
KenPom is a system based on the actual game scores. Flyers winning a lot of close games means they won't be as high up as their record might indicate.
Yeah and increases their "luck." Wichita State is "unlucky" according to him. It's useful as a tool but people pretending Wichita St. is so deserving solely based on Kenpom is idiotic. Most college bball writers are pretty bad I guess.
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  #595  
Old 03-08-2016, 06:06 PM
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So, when factoring in margin of victory, a 1 point over Richmond is the same thing as a 1 point win vs VCU. Except nothing of the sort is true. Richmond the last 2 minutes never got inside 1 possession, never had a chance to tie. VCU had chances to win.

St Bona was a 5 point loss at home. But inside 30 seconds there was an opportunity to tie, and the game was tied inside the last minute. Davidson ended up a tighter final score than the game really was as they never got to a point where they were a real threat to tie or take the lead. Same to just a slightly lesser extent for Bonas on the road.

Too much happens at end of games to base rankings with a heavy emphasis on margin of victory. If there was a metric that looked at score at various points throughout the game rather than just final margin it would be more meaningful.
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  #596  
Old 03-08-2016, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Why? If I beat team A by 50, and you beat them by 1, I'm probably better. If the same happens for team B C and D, I'm certainly better.

There needs to be a diminishing returns principle in place to account for running up the score/injuries/resting starters/etc., but MOV is a legitimate metric with which to compare teams.
Because, number one we are comparing teams against other teams that have not played each other. Second, and most importantly, you absolutely must look at wins and losses. Tell me, who has the better resume for inclusion as an at-large, a team that won 17 games by an average of 20 points, or a team who won 24 games by an average of 4 points. Clearly, the 24 win team has the better resume, but Kenpom rates the 17 win team higher. Makes no sense as far as at-large discussion is concerned.
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CT Flyer (03-08-2016)
  #597  
Old 03-08-2016, 09:53 PM
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SMC has 18 200+ RPI wins and Gonzaga has 16 of those type wins. Neither team has a top50 win.

So I asked Jerry Palm. He tweeted back that since 1996 that most 200+ wins for an at-large team is 14 with UAB in 2006.

No way either of these teams gets an at-large bid.
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Old 03-09-2016, 09:56 AM
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Every rating system has it's pluses and minuses. To cite just one to justify a team is like wearing blinders. That is why the committee uses all the big ratings to make their decisions. We love the RPI on the UD site, probably because some believe it is the major factor, and right now shows us in the best light. And of course in the end it will be humans and their biases making these decisions, not a rating system.
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  #599  
Old 03-09-2016, 10:40 AM
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Loving Lunardi's current projection of us as a 7 seed in St. Louis vs. USC. A game we can win and we can get some revenge for that buzzer beater at home a couple of years ago. We then move on to the winner of Green Bay vs. Zavier. Assuming we will play GB, but in the off chance we meet our "overlords from the south", I think we will pull out a win that will destroy Zaviers season. We have nothing to lose at that point and the guys will be playing loose and will not be stopped. It's all gravy after that!

I wonder what tomorrow's match up will be????
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SLUFLYER (03-09-2016)
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Old 03-09-2016, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
Loving Lunardi's current projection of us as a 7 seed in St. Louis vs. USC. A game we can win and we can get some revenge for that buzzer beater at home a couple of years ago. We then move on to the winner of Green Bay vs. Zavier. Assuming we will play GB, but in the off chance we meet our "overlords from the south", I think we will pull out a win that will destroy Zaviers season. We have nothing to lose at that point and the guys will be playing loose and will not be stopped. It's all gravy after that!

I wonder what tomorrow's match up will be????
I saw the match up also and was pretty happy with that scenario. USC is a game we can control and then swing for the fences and kick zaviers butt.
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