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02-25-2015, 01:56 PM
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Stevens has us 15 spots inside the cut line.
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02-26-2015, 12:52 PM
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Joey Brackets has us at 10 as of Feb 26th and as "last four byes". Rhody is Next four out...
3 games to go:
VCU- I think most expect a loss here, I will be picking VCU in this game. However, a win here would lock UD IMO even if they were to lose the next two.
21-7
Rhody- Assuming a VCU loss, this is some sense is a play in game you can figure. I think we win at home 22-7
Lasalle- This would be icing on the top, but this flyer squad has struggled some on the road. I predict loss 22-8
Personally I think wins over VCU or Rhody most likely puts Dayton in...but if they are 22-8 I think one tourney win is a must. Early on I said 23 was the magic # We'll see
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02-26-2015, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Odrab14
3 games to go:
VCU- I think most expect a loss here, I will be picking VCU in this game.
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A poll on that is in order I said positively a loss back when. When is gone.
VCU does not look good, and this going to be a game that brings Dayton's fire.
It is winnable, and I pick Dayton to get it.
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02-26-2015, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Odrab14
Personally I think wins over VCU or Rhody most likely puts Dayton in...but if they are 22-8 I think one tourney win is a must. Early on I said 23 was the magic # We'll see
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One potential problem with that is that 2 losses could make us a 5th seed and going 1-1 in the A10 would have us going out in the quarterfinals to a probable 100+ RPI team - I would say wrong side of the bubble there
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02-26-2015, 01:42 PM
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I like our chances at LaSalle. They seem to be in free fall. We should have some fan support and our kids will know that they are playing for something while the LaSalle kids will should be thinking about cleaning out their lockers. Hope we remember the Duquesne lesson and bring it.
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02-26-2015, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi
One potential problem with that is that 2 losses could make us a 5th seed and going 1-1 in the A10 would have us going out in the quarterfinals to a probable 100+ RPI team - I would say wrong side of the bubble there
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We have a 2 game lead on the 5th place team with 3 left. I like our chances. UMASS has Fordham, Richmond, and GW. Getting to 12 would require all 3 wins.
We hold the tie breaker over Richmond so the only way we make it to the 5 spot is by winning 1 game or less and UMASS winning its last 3.
I'm pretty sure about this - not positive.
Lose all 3 and all bets off.
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02-26-2015, 02:09 PM
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I look at the magic number for a double bye as being 2 with UMASS. 2 or more of Flyer wins plus UMASS losses gets us at least a 4 seed.
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02-26-2015, 03:01 PM
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Recorded the VCU Richmond game last night and watched it after our flyer victory. I have penciled in a loss at VCU but watching the game I believe our flyers can pull this one out. We have same ball movement as Richmond and defense looks similar. Play the way RU did and we can take this one.
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02-28-2015, 04:07 PM
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Watch how much we move in dancecard with win @ top 25 team.
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02-28-2015, 04:08 PM
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RPI up to 29
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02-28-2015, 04:39 PM
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Dance card has us at 57 (way out) before today. I bet we jump 20-30 spots with the win today.
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02-28-2015, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Dance card has us at 57 (way out) before today. I bet we jump 20-30 spots with the win today.
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We do not jump 20-30 spots. No way. Prob 8-12 spots. Maybe 15. Maybe.
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02-28-2015, 07:00 PM
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Forget dance card right now. Their numbers are very weird. They have several teams inside the cut line that nobody has making it. Wait until the last few days before the selection. Patrick Stevens is who I follow and he had us well inside before today as an 8 seed. We will probably jump to a 7.
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03-01-2015, 01:20 AM
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http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river
My prediction is high 30s to low 40s in dance card which does become more and more accurate the next 2 weeks.
24 wins or more including A-10 UD is a lock and 23 wins and we will sweat it out -- my view is 23-8 and we sneak in (1-1 next 2 and 0-1 A-10), but 23-9 we are barely out (0-2 next 2 and 1-1 in A-10).
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03-01-2015, 02:38 AM
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03-01-2015, 02:39 AM
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03-01-2015, 07:55 AM
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Stevens has us a lock today. Said any doubt about our status as an at large was erased yesterday. Remember, they have to take 68 teams and when you look at the teams being discussed, UD is far superior than most.
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03-01-2015, 08:06 AM
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Another thing to remember is that something like 95% of all teams will lose at least one, if not more than one game over the next two weeks, including a vast majority of those on the bubble
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03-01-2015, 08:32 AM
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ESPN said that UD has moved from a 10 seed to a 9 seed. I assume that came from Lunardi since he was on sportscenter
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03-01-2015, 09:10 AM
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Palm took us off his "Bubble Watch" page this morning. It's really just a matter of seeding now. Could get as high as 6-7 or drop to 9-10 range.
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03-01-2015, 09:47 AM
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Still on the outside looking in according to dance card, but our % chance has increased from 4% to 70%. Agree with the poster above that dance card isn't super accurate yet but will be soon.
I think the only way we don't make the tournament at this point would be to lose out. Don't see that happening.
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03-01-2015, 09:56 AM
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I say win 1 more game. Either regular season or A10 tourney.
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03-01-2015, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Still on the outside looking in according to dance card, but our % chance has increased from 4% to 70%. Agree with the poster above that dance card isn't super accurate yet but will be soon.
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That's not a percentage prediction that any certain team will get in. It's a percentage of teams that had that dance card score in the past that got in. The fact that so many teams below the cut line have good scores this year shows how strong the bubble is right now.
I think the only way we don't make the tournament at this point would be to lose out. Don't see that happening.
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I think UD needs two more wins to be certain of a bid. 1-2 would be a sticky situation. 1-3 would be out without some serious outside help. As stated, the bubble is strong right now. It hasn't been this strong this late in a few years. 2-1 would be okay, as would 2-2 or better.
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03-01-2015, 10:45 AM
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One thing in UD's favor re: dance card is the fact that dance card uses the old rpi formula. Under the old formula, UD's rpi is 48 (actual is 29). The +19 variance in the two is the largest in the top 40 (except Buffalo' s +25, and at 19-9 out of the MAC, buffalo has no chance at an at-large bid).
I don't know what other factors dance card uses to adapt to the new rpi formula, so I don't know what effect there is in total.
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03-01-2015, 11:35 AM
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Let's just lock it. Win 2 of 3. RI,@LaS,First game in Brooklyn
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03-01-2015, 11:45 AM
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I love this for so many reasons:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...200444831.html
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE SATURDAY
Dayton (22-6, 12-4 A-10): It's a disservice to Dayton to list the Flyers as a bubble team any longer. They're likely playing for seeding from this point forward after a 59-55 win at Atlantic 10 co-leader VCU. Despite only having six scholarship players and nobody taller than 6-foot-6, Dayton could take the outright lead in the Atlantic 10 if it beats Rhode Island at home Tuesday and Davidson loses one of its next two. The Flyers have quality wins against Texas A&M, Ole Miss and now VCU and no bad losses besides a head-scratcher against Duquesne earlier this month. That's a strong enough profile to get Dayton off the bubble and trending toward a No. 8 seed or so.
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BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL SATURDAY
Xavier (18-12, 8-9 Big East): Had Xavier held a nine-point second-half lead against first-place Villanova on Saturday afternoon, the Musketeers would have wrapped up an NCAA tournament bid. Instead they allowed the Wildcats to bury a barrage of second-half threes and storm back for a 78-66 victory to clinch the Big East title. Where does Xavier stand now with only a game at Creighton left before the Big East tournament? Still in decent shape thanks to a season sweep of Georgetown and single wins over Butler, Providence and Cincinnati. The Musketeers have four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 too, but as long as they don't fall to Creighton in their regular season finale, they have a good chance to slip into the field no matter what they do in the Big East tournament.
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03-01-2015, 11:53 AM
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Love that Dance card gets more predictive in a week or so! What wouldn't? Seems a waste of time today.
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03-01-2015, 12:04 PM
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I've always been a fan of the dance card, but I truly believe we are the outlier this year because of our rpi variance. I'll really be surprised if they don't eventually adjust back to using the new rpi. After reading Chris R's coverage of the mock process it is clear how much the new rpi is the metric. A 19 point (40%) variance is a pretty big flaw in a statistical model.
I expected a much bigger jump from VCU, but this is one of the biggest old-new variances I've seen.
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03-01-2015, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I say win 1 more game. Either regular season or A10 tourney.
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I say two more.
Rpiforecast has the conference tournament probabilities up now.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Dayton.html
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03-01-2015, 12:41 PM
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Dance Card is way off. They are not even close on the Flyers.
Flyers could make the dance with one more win, if the conference tourney did not exist; but I have to believe going 1-1 this week and a first game loss in A10 tourney quarters, will put UD fans back in the "CLINCH YOUR FIRST FOUR TICKETS TIGHTLY IN YOUR HAND" category. Totally back on bubble at that point.
A better plan, win last two giving at-least a shared regular season title, and then the A-10 tourney, and turn the discussion into "WILL IT BE LOUISVILLE SITE OR COLUMBUS SITE" for second and third round games.
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03-01-2015, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
Dance Card is way off. They are not even close on the Flyers.
Flyers could make the dance with one more win, if the conference tourney did not exist; but I have to believe going 1-1 this week and a first game loss in A10 tourney quarters, will put UD fans back in the "CLINCH YOUR FIRST FOUR TICKETS TIGHTLY IN YOUR HAND" category. Totally back on bubble at that point.
A better plan, win last two giving at-least a shared regular season title, and then the A-10 tourney, and turn the discussion into "WILL IT BE LOUISVILLE SITE OR COLUMBUS SITE" for second and third round games.
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I hate to be a di** about this coming off the emotional high of the VCU win, but if UD goes 1-1 to finish, and then 0-1 in the A10 tourney, then UD definitely will not make the tournament. They aren't getting in with a rpi of 54 at 23-8.
If they win two more under any scenario, regular season or conference tournament, then IMO they are a lock.
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03-01-2015, 01:25 PM
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Isn't that what I just said? But I said "Bubble", so maybe that's the difference. I think they could get in at 1-2, just not the most comfortable method.
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03-01-2015, 01:29 PM
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1-2 and UD is out not in, at least according to the probabilities.
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03-01-2015, 01:35 PM
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SOS
So is UD's SOS - 138?
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03-01-2015, 01:48 PM
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Yeah, SOS not helping too much at this point. Hopefully, whomever Flyers face in A10 quarterfinals will be in the top 50-100 teams, if not better. That way a loss would not be so catastrophic. But UD will win a game or two, and we will dance.
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03-01-2015, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
1-2 and UD is out not in, at least according to the probabilities.
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Can't look at this in a vacuum. We are being judged against all other teams. All I know is that right now our resume is leaps and bounds better than most other so-called bubble teams.
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03-01-2015, 01:56 PM
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A10 Championship!!!
Ī'm past worrying about bracketology.
Listened to AM on his show today. He is so focused on getting/keeping the team healthy and pursuing the championship that he doesn't have time to watch the bracketology stuff.
I truly believe this team will win their next 2 games and capture a share of the regular season title. 24-6 & 14-4. They are favored in both games.
Yesterday locked them in the NCAA (worse case playing in Dayton). Archie said they didn't looked tired at VCU like they did the last few games. They are focused. They want the title. They can taste it.
I cannot wait for Tuesday.
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03-02-2015, 12:29 AM
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Per Yahoo, Dayton is no longer a bubble team. Knock on wood.
"Dayton (22-6, 12-4 A-10): It's a disservice to Dayton to list the Flyers as a bubble team any longer. They're likely playing for seeding from this point forward after a 59-55 win at Atlantic 10 co-leader VCU. Despite only having six scholarship players and nobody taller than 6-foot-6, Dayton could take the outright lead in the Atlantic 10 if it beats Rhode Island at home Tuesday and Davidson loses one of its next two. The Flyers have quality wins against Texas A&M, Ole Miss and now VCU and no bad losses besides a head-scratcher against Duquesne earlier this month. That's a strong enough profile to get Dayton off the bubble and trending toward a No. 8 seed or so."
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...200444831.html
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03-02-2015, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
1-2 and UD is out not in, at least according to the probabilities.
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Completely disagree.
Main reason being every team has to play in a conference tournament and every team that doesn't win it and get the auto bid will gather one more loss.
So if we beat URI, lose focus and lose at LaSalle and in the tourny, I think we are an 11 seed.
0-3 might get us play in game.
1-2 11 seed
2-1 or 2-2 we are 8-10.
Go 3-1 and we are as big as 7, win these last two and the conference tourny we may be a 6. Maybe even a 5 as that'd put us 27-6, winners 10 of last 11, conference tournament champs and likely conference regular season champs with a sub 20 RPI.
But I'm not holding my breath on that last one.
Last edited by 224; 03-02-2015 at 10:04 AM..
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03-02-2015, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by 224
Completely disagree.
Main reason being every team has to play in a conference tournament and every team that doesn't win it and get the auto bid will gather one more loss.
So if we beat URI, lose focus and lose at LaSalle and in the tourny, I think we are an 11 seed.
0-3 might get us play in game.
1-2 11 seed
2-1 or 2-2 we are 8-10.
Go 3-1 and we are as big as 7, win these last two and the conference tourny we may be a 6. Maybe even a 5 as that'd put us 27-6, winners 10 of last 11, conference tournament champs and likely conference regular season champs with a sub 20 RPI.
But I'm not holding my breath on that last one.
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I think a 6-seed is our ceiling. Doubtful we could drop as far as out, or even the play in game.
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03-02-2015, 10:24 AM
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Yes, I changed my mind a bit, 1-1 finish in regular season combined with 0-1 in conference tourney MIGHT get UD in.
Wins and losses in conference tournaments don't seem to carry as much weight as regular season wins and losses for some reason.
I am just not comfortable with 23-7, SOS around 120, and #35 rpi. Would feel a lot more comfortable getting to 24 wins somehow.
I know I'm looking at this in a vacuum, but past history is not always kind to a 120 SOS combined with a regular season rpi in the mid 30's or worse.
24 is the magic number for a lock IMO.
And BTW, 0-3=UD is out.
Last edited by ud2; 03-02-2015 at 10:33 AM..
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03-02-2015, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Yes, I changed my mind a bit, 1-1 finish in regular season combined with 0-1 in conference tourney MIGHT get UD in.
Wins and losses in conference tournaments don't seem to carry as much weight as regular season wins and losses for some reason.
I am just not comfortable with 23-7, SOS around 120, and #35 rpi. Would feel a lot more comfortable getting to 24 wins somehow.
I know I'm looking at this in a vacuum, but past history is not always kind to a 120 SOS combined with a regular season rpi in the mid 30's or worse.
24 is the magic number for a lock IMO.
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W's and L's aside, if this team ends up with an RPI of 35, there is no way they are getting left out.
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03-02-2015, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
W's and L's aside, if this team ends up with an RPI of 35, there is no way they are getting left out.
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Chris Wright sophomore? year? 32 rpi and didn't make it. That was a field of 65? though I think.
Last edited by ud2; 03-02-2015 at 10:40 AM..
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03-02-2015, 10:35 AM
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If only one could somehow be sure ...... I would rather be an 11 seed than an 8 or 9!
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03-02-2015, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Chris Wright sophomore? year? 32 rpi and didn't make it. That was a field of 65? though I think.
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Wright's sophomore year, we beat West Virginia in 1st Round and lost to Kansas in 2nd.
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03-02-2015, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Wright's sophomore year, we beat West Virginia in 1st Round and lost to Kansas in 2nd.
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My bad, his freshman year, 2007-2008, regular season rpi around 32 I think, no bid. Wright was injured. SOS was probably A LOT better than this year too. But, again, field of 65 I think.
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03-02-2015, 10:50 AM
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That was the year we suffered several bad losses late and finished 8-8 in conf. Totally different scenario than this year.
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03-02-2015, 10:51 AM
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Wright's freshman season is the one you are thinking of, and this is (another) season UD finished right around .500 in conference play (I think they were 8-8 that particular season) and had a bunch of bad losses in conference play. UD has only 1 bad loss at this point, and is unlikely to pick up another 100+ rpi loss. They'll finish well above .500 this season. IN Wright's frosh season, nearly everything they accomplished of note happened before his injury. This season, aside from the wins over aTm & BGSU al the accomplishments of note have happened with the current setup.
This season and that season are apples/oranges in my opinion. Frankly, worry about 0-3 when/if they do 0-3. I doubt Archie is worrying too much about it, he's concentrating on Rhody and getting a shot at the #1 overall seed in Brooklyn.
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03-02-2015, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Chris Wright sophomore? year? 32 rpi and didn't make it. That was a field of 65? though I think.
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That is why I said "this team." It does not apply to any past teams or any other teams this year. The year we didn't get in is a whole other different story. Given this team's W's and L's (good and bad) it is in with an RPI of 35. They probably have to win at least a game to get there but they will be in.
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03-02-2015, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford
This season and that season are apples/oranges in my opinion. Frankly, worry about 0-3 when/if they do 0-3. I doubt Archie is worrying too much about it, he's concentrating on Rhody and getting a shot at the #1 overall seed in Brooklyn.
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I'd definitely would take the #1 seed if it goes with an outright A10 regular season championship but if there is a tie at the top, I rather have the #2 seed. I would rather play at 6:30 on Friday than noon. That noon game just has a bad feel to it - see St. Joes 2004, SLU 2014.
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03-02-2015, 11:06 AM
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2007-2088...bad losses, Wright injured, 8-8 in A10, totally different scenario, yada yada yada...whatever.
They had a SOS of 30 and a rpi of 32 per realtimerpi, that's VERY solid, and they didn't get into the field of 65.
I won't feel comfortable until they get 24 wins.
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03-02-2015, 11:22 AM
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As of today ESPN is projecting (9)UD vs (8)X. They have us playing in Louisville with the winner playing Kentucky. A lot can (and will) change in the next couple of weeks...but wouldn't that be something?
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03-02-2015, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
2007-2088...bad losses, Wright injured, 8-8 in A10, totally different scenario, yada yada yada...whatever.
They had a SOS of 30 and a rpi of 32 per realtimerpi, that's VERY solid, and they didn't get into the field of 65.
I won't feel comfortable until they get 24 wins.
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You're discounting (and disrespecting) with the yada, yada and whatever.
You're entitled to feel uncomfortable without 24 wins.
But don't compare Dayton's 2007-08 Computer Numbers to this years without including ALL of the variables from that year. THOSE variables are the EXACT reasons we were left out that year. Nobody liked it, some disagreed with it, said it wasn't fair, but those are undeniable facts. Accept it. Or find a better comparable.
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03-02-2015, 11:34 AM
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I realize we still have 2 weeks before Selection Sunday and that the Committee will undoubtedly cover all of their basis and that the pundits like Palm and Lunardi focus more on who's IN/OUT than the middle tier seeding..........But
How can he (Lunardi) have Ohio State as a 7 seed if he has Dayton as a 9??
CBS has a nice little comparable tool - http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...eam-comparison
When you compare the two, how does tOSU get a 2-line jump over the Flyers?
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03-02-2015, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I realize we still have 2 weeks before Selection Sunday and that the Committee will undoubtedly cover all of their basis and that the pundits like Palm and Lunardi focus more on who's IN/OUT than the middle tier seeding..........But
How can he (Lunardi) have Ohio State as a 7 seed if he has Dayton as a 9??
CBS has a nice little comparable tool - http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...eam-comparison
When you compare the two, how does tOSU get a 2-line jump over the Flyers?
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Realize that a 2 line jump could mean only 4 teams in between, Ohio St could be the 4th 7 and UD could be the first 9. Palm has UD a 9 and Ohio St an 8. Only explanation for the higher seed is no bad loss. I pay attention to Ohio St and they have not done diddly away from home. With the talent he gets, I would think Matta should start feeling some heat for not getting enough out of them the last couple of years.
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03-02-2015, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Realize that a 2 line jump could mean only 4 teams in between, Ohio St could be the 4th 7 and UD could be the first 9. Palm has UD a 9 and Ohio St an 8. Only explanation for the higher seed is no bad loss. I pay attention to Ohio St and they have not done diddly away from home. With the talent he gets, I would think Matta should start feeling some heat for not getting enough out of them the last couple of years.
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I get that it could only be 4 team difference. But other than the bad loss, Dayton's resume trumps tOSU in every category - non con SOS, Top 50 wins, best road win, RPI, etc.
In looking at tOSU's resume, they should be squarely on the bubble. They played the 209th rated non con schedule, that included just 1 road game and 1 neutral site game - both losses. The committee should hit them hard in the seed line for this, as they typically do (left out SMU entirely last year for such). tOSU's best road win to date is at #76 Minnesota. They have just two wins against probable tournament teams, both at home.
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03-02-2015, 12:21 PM
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Just checked the facts myself, and you are correct SLUFLYER. The people doing these picks and seedings right now have some bias, and OSU gets bias points. The committee supposedly will not have that, but we will see.
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03-02-2015, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
That was the year we suffered several bad losses late and finished 8-8 in conf.
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Oh yeah, I remember THAT year under BG. You remember, the one where we finished ~8-8 in conference.
Wasn't that the year where people mostly wore red to the home games? I remember it was cold walking to the games, kind of like an Ohio winter.
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03-02-2015, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I get that it could only be 4 team difference. But other than the bad loss, Dayton's resume trumps tOSU in every category - non con SOS, Top 50 wins, best road win, RPI, etc.
In looking at tOSU's resume, they should be squarely on the bubble. They played the 209th rated non con schedule, that included just 1 road game and 1 neutral site game - both losses. The committee should hit them hard in the seed line for this, as they typically do (left out SMU entirely last year for such). tOSU's best road win to date is at #76 Minnesota. They have just two wins against probable tournament teams, both at home.
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So let's just ignore the bad loss?
I am not pimping for tOSU. They sure don't need it. I enjoyed beating them as much as anyone last year. Arguments can be made that 7-8 over top 100 is better than 5-5. A win over #10 is better than #19. Plus there is that bad loss. Dance Card has them 2 spots over UD. I can see why it can be close and they could be slightly above. It just proves how marginal the differences are between teams.
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03-02-2015, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
You're discounting (and disrespecting) with the yada, yada and whatever.
You're entitled to feel uncomfortable without 24 wins.
But don't compare Dayton's 2007-08 Computer Numbers to this years without including ALL of the variables from that year. THOSE variables are the EXACT reasons we were left out that year. Nobody liked it, some disagreed with it, said it wasn't fair, but those are undeniable facts. Accept it. Or find a better comparable.
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http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Dayton.html
Check the above link, I don't think 23 wins is enough.
Fair enough, I apologize to anyone that I disrespected.
To be honest, I am not really going to be comfortable until they get 25 wins, but I assume all these bracketologists know what they are talking about, so 24 sounds like good enough.
Other comparables, I'm only including rpi's in the 40's or better.
Southern Mississippi, last year, 34 rpi, 132 SOS, didn't make the cut
Toledo, last year, 38 rpi, 146 SOS, didn't make the cut
Missouri, last year, 44 rpi, 61 SOS, didn't make the cut
Minnesota, last year, 48 rpi, 9 SOS, didn't make the cut
And that is just last year, the previous years since 2011, when the field went to 68, have several similar examples.
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03-02-2015, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Other comparables, I'm only including rpi's in the 50's or better.
Southern Mississippi, last year, 34 rpi, 132 SOS, didn't make the cut
Toledo, last year, 38 rpi, 146 SOS, didn't make the cut
Missouri, last year, 44 rpi, 61 SOS, didn't make the cut
Minnesota, last year, 48 rpi, 9 SOS, didn't make the cut
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Southern Miss 1-1 top 50.
Toledo 0-1 Top 50.
Missouri 2-4 Top 50.
Minnesota 2-8 Top 50.
For Missouri and Minnesota, they took Kansas St. (7-8), NC State (3-9) and Iowa (5-9) instead, and they had higher RPIs.
Buffalo is probably going to get the Toledo treatment this year. Good RPI, no top50 victories (0-2). Maybe, if they lose in the MAC final, they have a chance at an at-large.
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03-02-2015, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
Southern Miss 1-1 top 50.
Toledo 0-1 Top 50.
Missouri 2-4 Top 50.
Minnesota 2-8 Top 50.
For Missouri and Minnesota, they took Kansas St. (7-8), NC State (3-9) and Iowa (5-9) instead, and they had higher RPIs.
Buffalo is probably going to get the Toledo treatment this year. Good RPI, no top50 victories (0-2). Maybe, if they lose in the MAC final, they have a chance at an at-large.
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Oh sure, play the old there is more to a resume than RPI card.
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03-02-2015, 01:51 PM
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OK, let's do this. I think you can see that our resume compares favorably to all of these teams in one metric or another.
Dayton's current metrics are:
RPI of 29
1-1 vs. top 25
3-2 vs. Top 50
5-5 vs. Top 100
10 games against teams with an RPI of 200+, one bad loss.
SOS is 148, NCSOS is 134
Road/Neutral record is 7-6
Originally Posted by ud2
Southern Mississippi, last year, 34 rpi, 132 SOS, didn't make the cut
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RPI of 34
0-1 vs. top 25
1-1 vs. top 50
5-4 vs. top 100
12 games vs. RPI 200+, 2 bad losses.
SOS of 127, NCSOS of 152
Road/Neutral of 13-6
Toledo, last year, 38 rpi, 146 SOS, didn't make the cut
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RPI of 38
0-1 vs. top 25
0-1 vs. top 50
6-5 vs. top 100
18 games vs. RPI 150+, 1 bad loss
SOS of 166, NCSOS of 125
Road/Neutral of 12-6
Missouri, last year, 44 rpi, 61 SOS, didn't make the cut
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RPI of 44
1-3 vs. top 25
2-4 vs. top 50
7-9 vs. top 100
8 games vs. RPI 150+, 2 bad losses
SOS of 72, NCSOS of 149
Road/Neutral record of 7-9
Minnesota, last year, 48 rpi, 9 SOS, didn't make the cut
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RPI of 48
2-7 vs. top 25
2-8 vs. top 50
6-11 vs. top 100
7 games vs. RPI 150+, 2 bad losses
SOS of 7, NCSOS of 32
Road/Neutral record of 4-10
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03-02-2015, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I realize we still have 2 weeks before Selection Sunday and that the Committee will undoubtedly cover all of their basis and that the pundits like Palm and Lunardi focus more on who's IN/OUT than the middle tier seeding..........But
How can he (Lunardi) have Ohio State as a 7 seed if he has Dayton as a 9??
CBS has a nice little comparable tool - http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...eam-comparison
When you compare the two, how does tOSU get a 2-line jump over the Flyers?
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I like the OSU comparison especially because they haven'y beat anyone top 50 away from home. Dayton has 1 Away win and 1 Neutral win. Those have to weigh better than only winning at home. I would think these would also at least equalize if not put Dayton ahead of OSU even with the one bad loss Dayton has.
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03-02-2015, 02:21 PM
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Its hard to compare for certain, but going off of Warren Nolan's site, Southern Miss had three top 100 wins, 1 top 50 win heading into selection Sunday. Two of those wins was @ N Dakota St and Georgia St. NDS was #34, obviously a good win, but not a huge name.
Toledo had 0 top 50 wins, all of the their top 100 wins were 75+ and all on their home court
Missouri's rpi was worse, the SEC was beyond terrible once you got past UK & Florida last season. The 12 teams outside of those teams combined for something like 3 true road wins last season.
anyhoo, I appreciate the caution, but its not like Archie is just resting on his Laurels this week, so there is little sense in worrying about the worst case scenario right now. Every case is a little different, its tough to compare any teams historically with just 2 data points.
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03-02-2015, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Dayton.html
Check the above link, I don't think 23 wins is enough.
Fair enough, I apologize to anyone that I disrespected.
To be honest, I am not really going to be comfortable until they get 25 wins, but I assume all these bracketologists know what they are talking about, so 24 sounds like good enough.
Other comparables, I'm only including rpi's in the 40's or better.
Southern Mississippi, last year, 34 rpi, 132 SOS, didn't make the cut
Toledo, last year, 38 rpi, 146 SOS, didn't make the cut
Missouri, last year, 44 rpi, 61 SOS, didn't make the cut
Minnesota, last year, 48 rpi, 9 SOS, didn't make the cut
And that is just last year, the previous years since 2011, when the field went to 68, have several similar examples.
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Did any of these teams lose one of their best players in the first week of January, not to return for the season? And have their BEST wins come WITH that player on the court and their WORST losses WITHOUT him on the court? That alone is the single most significant variable to that team's resume and why they didn't get in. To just look at the computer numbers is not at all comparable to Dayton's situation this year......and as far as I can tell, any of the above mentioned team's resumes.
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03-02-2015, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by sw368407
I like the OSU comparison especially because they haven'y beat anyone top 50 away from home. Dayton has 1 Away win and 1 Neutral win. Those have to weigh better than only winning at home. I would think these would also at least equalize if not put Dayton ahead of OSU even with the one bad loss Dayton has.
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Agree. The biggest differentiating factor of the above resumes and Dayton THIS YEAR (since it appears the focus has shifted from 07-08 to this year) is that Dayton has a winning record vs Top 50 this year, with 2 wins being neutral and away. The teams listed above, some had zero or just 1 Top 50 win. And the ones with 2 Top 50 wins also had a bunch of losses to the Top 50 as well. Dayton does not.
IMO, wins against 51-100 are really just fluff. A gaudy Top 100 record means very little if the bulk was done against 51-100 (teams NOT in the tournament).
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03-02-2015, 03:41 PM
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I've always felt that wins over teams from 50-100 get you into the field, wins vs the top 50 determine your seeding.
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03-02-2015, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
I've always felt that wins over teams from 50-100 get you into the field, wins vs the top 50 determine your seeding.
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I'm legitimately interested in how you get that feeling?
One thing I have heard essentially every committee chair say since as long I could comprehend English (about 40 years, with a few days/weeks where it has lapsed) - is that we look for teams that can win a game or two in the tournament.
There are not many (and maybe just 1 or 2 at larges) teams that get into the tournament that have RPI's between 51-100. Most teams that get into the tournament have multiple wins against the Top 50. And those with just a couple of wins against the Top 50 better not have done it at the expense of 7-10 Top 50 losses.
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03-02-2015, 04:09 PM
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There's nothing behind this, other than my view of what it represents, don't know if the committee looks at it this way or not (either knowingly or unknowingly as part of the process) but if you beat a bunch of teams ranked b/w 51-100, that means that you've proven that your better than the teams that would typically be out of the tournament, ie you've put yourself above the imaginary cut line. Now that your "in the field" winning games vs teams ranked 1-50 helps determine where your seeding w/n the field falls.
Now I'll admit that's way over simplified, because you've got to look at bad losses and how you actually performed against those teams (ie a bunch of tight close wins over top 50-100 wins, but a bunch of blowout losses to teams ranked 1-50 doesn't mean your going to the playin game.)
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03-02-2015, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
OK, let's do this. I think you can see that our resume compares favorably to all of these teams in one metric or another.
Dayton's current metrics are:
RPI of 29
1-1 vs. top 25
3-2 vs. Top 50
5-5 vs. Top 100
10 games against teams with an RPI of 200+, one bad loss.
SOS is 148, NCSOS is 134
Road/Neutral record is 7-6
RPI of 34
0-1 vs. top 25
1-1 vs. top 50
5-4 vs. top 100
12 games vs. RPI 200+, 2 bad losses.
SOS of 127, NCSOS of 152
Road/Neutral of 13-6
RPI of 38
0-1 vs. top 25
0-1 vs. top 50
6-5 vs. top 100
18 games vs. RPI 150+, 1 bad loss
SOS of 166, NCSOS of 125
Road/Neutral of 12-6
RPI of 44
1-3 vs. top 25
2-4 vs. top 50
7-9 vs. top 100
8 games vs. RPI 150+, 2 bad losses
SOS of 72, NCSOS of 149
Road/Neutral record of 7-9
RPI of 48
2-7 vs. top 25
2-8 vs. top 50
6-11 vs. top 100
7 games vs. RPI 150+, 2 bad losses
SOS of 7, NCSOS of 32
Road/Neutral record of 4-10
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For the record, per CBS, Dayton's non con SOS is 110 and overall SOS is 119.
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03-02-2015, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I get that it could only be 4 team difference. But other than the bad loss, Dayton's resume trumps tOSU in every category - non con SOS, Top 50 wins, best road win, RPI, etc.
In looking at tOSU's resume, they should be squarely on the bubble. They played the 209th rated non con schedule, that included just 1 road game and 1 neutral site game - both losses. The committee should hit them hard in the seed line for this, as they typically do (left out SMU entirely last year for such). tOSU's best road win to date is at #76 Minnesota. They have just two wins against probable tournament teams, both at home.
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I just looked at Lunardi's S curve and he does have Ohio St at 28 and UD at 33. So there are only 4 teams in between - 32- Xavier 31-St. John's 30-Iowa 29-Georgia. Draws your own conclusions but I see all those teams with more games vs. top 100 teams. The bad A10 teams really hurt our SOS and chances to get more top 100 wins.
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03-02-2015, 05:00 PM
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RPI, SOS, Wins, losses, fancy, smancy
Now ask yourself "Would you not want a TRUE TEAM in your tournament?"
Go Flyin Phenom's
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03-02-2015, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I just looked at Lunardi's S curve and he does have Ohio St at 28 and UD at 33. So there are only 4 teams in between - 32-Xavier 31-St. John's 30-Iowa 29-Georgia. Draws your own conclusions but I see all those teams with more games vs. top 100 teams. The bad A10 teams really hurt our SOS and chances to get more top 100 wins.
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All 5 of those teams are in leagues that will send 5 or 6 teams to the dance, so your point about the large number of A10 SOS boat anchors is valid.
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03-03-2015, 04:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick
I love this for so many reasons:
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL SATURDAY
Xavier (18-12, 8-9 Big East): Had Xavier held a nine-point second-half lead against first-place Villanova on Saturday afternoon, the Musketeers would have wrapped up an NCAA tournament bid. Instead they allowed the Wildcats to bury a barrage of second-half threes and storm back for a 78-66 victory to clinch the Big East title. Where does Xavier stand now with only a game at Creighton left before the Big East tournament? Still in decent shape thanks to a season sweep of Georgetown and single wins over Butler, Providence and Cincinnati. The Musketeers have four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 too, but as long as they don't fall to Creighton in their regular season finale, they have a good chance to slip into the field no matter what they do in the Big East tournament.
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I know this is unlikely, however if #24 RPI Georgetown loses at home to Seton Hall, they would drop to #26 RPI and X's record against the top 25 would fall from 4-4 to 2-4.
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03-03-2015, 06:52 AM
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I know there was some discussion on this, either in this thread or another, so I'll throw it out there. Joe Lunardi was on the radio w/ Mo Egger (1530 am) yesterday and when Mo asked him about UD, Joe's response was that UD was 85-90% in, just need to avoid catastrophe, so for anyone that thought Joe said UD was 100% no matter what, they either heard him wrong, or he's changed his mind a bit as things have unfolded the last few days.
Additionally, knowing that Mo is a UD grad, he teased him by asking if he liked his UD-X matchup in his bracket, basically saying that he did it b/c he knew it would fuel the fires of the two fan bases, but admitted that he didn't think it likely that the two teams matched up in the first round.
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03-03-2015, 12:08 PM
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03-03-2015, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
I know this is unlikely, however if #24 RPI Georgetown loses at home to Seton Hall, they would drop to #26 RPI and X's record against the top 25 would fall from 4-4 to 2-4.
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I don't think that matters much at all. I know it changes the layout of the team sheet, but the committee will analyze it pretty much the same.
Tournament teams need to be able to beat non NIT teams on the road. Xavier needs to beat Creighton. There is a lot riding on it, but at the end of the day those are the games you're expected to win if you're a tournament team. If they lose to Creighton they're really not helped out at all if Georgetown is 24th instead of 26th, and if they beat Creighton they're really not hurt by Georgetown being 26th instead of 24th.
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03-03-2015, 12:59 PM
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All of these possibilities are making my head hurt, and I'm an accountant. The more I read, the more I'd really like to beat Rhode Island tonight.
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03-03-2015, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
I know there was some discussion on this, either in this thread or another, so I'll throw it out there. Joe Lunardi was on the radio w/ Mo Egger (1530 am) yesterday and when Mo asked him about UD, Joe's response was that UD was 85-90% in, just need to avoid catastrophe, so for anyone that thought Joe said UD was 100% no matter what, they either heard him wrong, or he's changed his mind a bit as things have unfolded the last few days.
Additionally, knowing that Mo is a UD grad, he teased him by asking if he liked his UD-X matchup in his bracket, basically saying that he did it b/c he knew it would fuel the fires of the two fan bases, but admitted that he didn't think it likely that the two teams matched up in the first round.
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FWIW, I talked to some XU cheerleaders the other day, they were mad about being booed last year at the First 4. I realize that they are not going to get much sympathy on here.
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03-03-2015, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
FWIW, I talked to some XU cheerleaders the other day, they were mad about being booed last year at the First 4. I realize that they are not going to get much sympathy on here.
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Awesome, it worked.
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03-03-2015, 02:24 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by ud2
FWIW, I talked to some XU cheerleaders the other day, they were mad about being booed last year at the First 4. I realize that they are not going to get much sympathy on here.
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Those cheerleaders should tell their men's basketball team to play better than.
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03-04-2015, 09:53 AM
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Brigadier General
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Locked (even the dance card now that our OLD/NEW RPI variance is only 13 (27/40)
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03-04-2015, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Locked (even the dance card now that our OLD/NEW RPI variance is only 13 (27/40)
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??
I only see Dance Card updated through Monday's games.
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03-04-2015, 10:18 AM
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Dance Card Has Us in at #42
Dance Card now has us in at #42, RPI rank of 40.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Last edited by Mich Flyer; 03-04-2015 at 10:25 AM..
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03-04-2015, 10:20 AM
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Why would anyone from XU be surprised at getting booed at UD arena, even when the Flyers aren't there? I'm rooting for a Creighton upset on Sat. D) That would surely burst the Muskie's bubble. Loved that they were one and done here last year--poetic justice.
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03-04-2015, 10:23 AM
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I don't see how you could let an 8-10 conference team into the NCAA tournament.
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03-04-2015, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by 66flyer
Why would anyone from XU be surprised at getting booed at UD arena, even when the Flyers aren't there? I'm rooting for a Creighton upset on Sat. D) That would surely burst the Muskie's bubble. Loved that they were one and done here last year--poetic justice.
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Their last two times in the arena they failed to score 60 points and lost by 11 and 15 to Dayton and NC State.
Dear Xavier,
For being pompous about your streak in Cincinnati you hereby are sentenced to 10 years of first four losses in UD Arena in which you will only score 59 points!
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03-04-2015, 11:22 AM
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pay no attention
Originally Posted by Medford
Additionally, knowing that Mo is a UD grad, he teased him by asking if he liked his UD-X matchup in his bracket, basically saying that he did it b/c he knew it would fuel the fires of the two fan bases, but admitted that he didn't think it likely that the two teams matched up in the first round.
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This is exactly why I pay no attention to match ups and locations. With the exception of the #1 seeds and some #2 seeds, those predictions are darts at a map or jabs to create water cooler talk.
Wherever the selection show on March 15th tells me that UD is going, I'll go.
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03-04-2015, 12:55 PM
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ok, but why would there be any doubt of us getting in right now.
Go to Brooklyn, win 2 games maybe 3. Await our Seeding.
Yeah BABY!!!
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03-04-2015, 12:58 PM
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Chris's RPI has us at 27, up from 29 after yesterdays big W!
i believe we can pick off S Diego State, Colorado State, maybe Butler or PRovidence as well.
Beat LaSalle (away game), and win 2- 3 in Brooklyn.
Guesstimating but Win 3 in Brooklyn, could end up with roughly 20-22 RPI (depending on who we play). Win 2 and end up between 23 and 26 RPI.
Should first ask the QUESTION: do A10 tourney games count towards RPI?
Figgie, someone?
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03-04-2015, 01:00 PM
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IF so, Davidson, VCU, Rhodies i guess would be rpi gainers likely or at least neutralizers.
Also figure Butler and some other teams will lose tournament games.
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03-04-2015, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
I don't see how you could let an 8-10 conference team into the NCAA tournament.
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I've been thinking this for weeks. How many losses does a team have to have before it doesn't matter what conference they play in? I think it should at least be a per-requisite to have no worse than a .500 record in conference play to be considered for an at-large.
A current RPI of 43, 8-9 conference record, and 12 overall losses, yet xavier is still considered an 8 or 9 seed and a lock? Would a second loss to Creighton even put them on the bubble?
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03-04-2015, 01:07 PM
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tournament games count towards rpi, but its debatable how much they count. The committee starts meeting on Tuesday, there is a good chance (especially with a win at LaSalle) that UD will have already been placed into the bracket by the time they tip off on Friday, so any benefits/downside to wins/losses in Brooklyn will come as a result of UD's profile being scrubbed vs other teams. Their place in the S-curve may be relatively locked in by Friday evening with the exception of moving up/down a seed line for geography/pod.
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03-04-2015, 01:13 PM
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just checked Ncaa, realtime rpi and other major site.
ALL have us currently at 27 RPI, updated thru last night
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03-04-2015, 04:40 PM
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Last edited by jpk4ud; 03-04-2015 at 04:42 PM..
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03-04-2015, 06:23 PM
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Not sure if the 7-10 line is much better!
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03-05-2015, 07:24 AM
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Yeah, we need to WIN WIN WIN and get a 5 or 6 seed.
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03-05-2015, 09:35 AM
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Depending upon how the next few games play out, I could really see us getting a 7 seed out west with a potential 3rd round matchup against AZ.
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03-05-2015, 10:11 AM
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The good news is, when you run the figures into the RPI Wizard (google it), whether UD loses in the A10 semis or the finals to URI, Davidson, or VCU, their RPI will end up about where it is now 27-ish.
So, the only things that will hurt us is a loss to LaSalle or a loss to an 8/9 seed in the A10 tournament (likely St. Bonaventure or LaSalle, again).
Having run the numbers, here is how we end up in the RPI:
Assuming loss to LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 35
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 33
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 28
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 25
Assuming win over LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 27
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 27
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 20
So, 2 losses in a row would be REALLY bad (like back on the bubble bad with our SOS numbers), and winning the A10 title would be REALLY good (might get us as high as a 5 seed), but other than that we are probably looking at an 8, 9, or 10 seed in the NCAA tournament because we are pretty much in the RPI 26-32 area at this point barring either the 2 disaster scenario or the super-mega happy scenario.
There is of course some variance if some of our opponents have bad losses in the coming week or something like that... but the RPI is as motionless as it's going to get right now so opponent wins/losses aren't going to move us much more than a spot or two.
Last edited by priceg75; 03-05-2015 at 10:20 AM..
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