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  #301  
Old 03-05-2015, 10:23 AM
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Guess I should have also noted that we could end up playing a 7/10 team in the first round, but I guess at this point of the season I am an optimist. Not usually, but this team has made me one.

But whether we beat or lose to a 7/10 or an 8/9 in the A10 tourney makes little difference in the RPI.
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  #302  
Old 03-05-2015, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
The good news is, when you run the figures into the RPI Wizard (google it), whether UD loses in the A10 semis or the finals to URI, Davidson, or VCU, their RPI will end up about where it is now 27-ish.

So, the only things that will hurt us is a loss to LaSalle or a loss to an 8/9 seed in the A10 tournament (likely St. Bonaventure or LaSalle, again).

Having run the numbers, here is how we end up in the RPI:
Assuming loss to LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 35
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 33
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 28
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 25

Assuming win over LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 27
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 27
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 20


So, 2 losses in a row would be REALLY bad (like back on the bubble bad with our SOS numbers), and winning the A10 title would be REALLY good (might get us as high as a 5 seed), but other than that we are probably looking at an 8, 9, or 10 seed in the NCAA tournament because we are pretty much in the RPI 26-32 area at this point barring either the 2 disaster scenario or the super-mega happy scenario.

There is of course some variance if some of our opponents have bad losses in the coming week or something like that... but the RPI is as motionless as it's going to get right now so opponent wins/losses aren't going to move us much more than a spot or two.
Don't want to let this get lost on the last page since I spent some time on it. Hopefully it is interesting.
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  #303  
Old 03-05-2015, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
The good news is, when you run the figures into the RPI Wizard (google it), whether UD loses in the A10 semis or the finals to URI, Davidson, or VCU, their RPI will end up about where it is now 27-ish.

So, the only things that will hurt us is a loss to LaSalle or a loss to an 8/9 seed in the A10 tournament (likely St. Bonaventure or LaSalle, again).

Having run the numbers, here is how we end up in the RPI:
Assuming loss to LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 35
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 33
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 28
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 25

Assuming win over LaSalle
+ loss to first A10 opponent = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to a hot low seed in the A10 semis = RPI 31
+ win over 8/9 + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in A10 semis = RPI 27
+ win over 8/9 + win over URI/Davidson/VCU in semis + loss to URI/Davidson/VCU in title game = RPI 27
+ win A10 title while playing two of URI/Davidson/VCU = RPI 20


So, 2 losses in a row would be REALLY bad (like back on the bubble bad with our SOS numbers), and winning the A10 title would be REALLY good (might get us as high as a 5 seed), but other than that we are probably looking at an 8, 9, or 10 seed in the NCAA tournament because we are pretty much in the RPI 26-32 area at this point barring either the 2 disaster scenario or the super-mega happy scenario.

There is of course some variance if some of our opponents have bad losses in the coming week or something like that... but the RPI is as motionless as it's going to get right now so opponent wins/losses aren't going to move us much more than a spot or two.
Rpiforecast is showing that if UD wins out, 27-6, they will be rpi #14. What seed does that get them?

4 seed?
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  #304  
Old 03-05-2015, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Rpiforecast is showing that if UD wins out, 27-6, they will be rpi #14. What seed does that get them?

4 seed?
No way. I think 6 is the limit. 7 more likely. I hope to be proved wrong.
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  #305  
Old 03-05-2015, 11:47 AM
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if we win the A10 and don't get a 5 I will be very disappointed.
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  #306  
Old 03-05-2015, 11:55 AM
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I think 6 is the absolute best they could squeeze out. Both aTm (projected rpi of 50.5) and Ole Miss (46.2) could drop out of the top 50 by the time they start scrubbing Dayton for seeding. That would leave them with only a win @ VCU as a top 50 win. Richmond (57ish) could jump into the top 50 to balance that out. If they win at LaSalle, and based on how I think I understand the process, UD could well be "in the dance" by the time they tip off Friday, they may pick up an additional top 50 win or two in Brooklyn by winning out, but it may not make a big difference on their seed by that point.

A 6 seed would be an awesome accomplishment. I think no matter what seed they end up, they're going to face a tough challenge in the 2nd round and last season showed once again that it doesn't take a top 4 seed to have a satisfying run in March.
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  #307  
Old 03-05-2015, 01:14 PM
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Here is a link that focuses on projections

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
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  #308  
Old 03-05-2015, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Here is a link that focuses on projections

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
What this tells me is that, as an 11 seed last year we had somewhere south of a 2% chance of making elite 8?
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  #309  
Old 03-05-2015, 01:48 PM
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If they could get to 6 what are the chances of them being at Nationwide I wonder?
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Old 03-05-2015, 02:31 PM
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Not that I believe Lunardi is the be all, end all, but he has the Flyers at 31 on the S curve. To get to a 6 seed, we would need to move to 24. Right now, on his list, it would mean passing - St Johns, tOSU, Iowa, SDSU, Mich St, VCU, Butler. I think he has VCU too high and I see them falling. To get to a 5, it would mean passing - SMU, Gtown, Providence, WVU.
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  #311  
Old 03-05-2015, 02:41 PM
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Seems like a tall order for sure but a lot can and will still happen. I guess it would be too good to be true if they ended up in Cbus.
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  #312  
Old 03-05-2015, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by runnerup View Post
If they could get to 6 what are the chances of them being at Nationwide I wonder?
A few brackets on Bracket Matrix have us as a 6 currently. Granted that's the exception, similar to how a few people still have us as an 11 (I don't get it either way).

On average we are about an 8 (8.35 to be exact) currently.

Flip a coin as far as location. As great as COL would be, good luck on tickets.
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  #313  
Old 03-06-2015, 07:21 AM
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A10 Seeding

With Davidson beating VCU last night. I see Dayton, VCU and Davidson all being about equal. Interestingly, the polls ranked the 3 teams Dayton, Davidson, VCU and the bracketologists rank the teams, VCU, Dayton, Davidson. I think Dayton and VCU will be 8 seeds and Davidson will be a 9 seed when Lunardi releases his latest bracket. All 3 teams should be in the dance, unless they lose their last regular season game AND the first game of the A10 Tournament.
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  #314  
Old 03-06-2015, 08:18 AM
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Davidson pre-A10 would still have to hope to be scot-free in the SoCon tournament to get an NCAA berth.


Davidson in the A10 can probably take another loss and still make the field as an at-large. Found it interesting that they said last night that Davidson has never made the field as an at-large.

I would actually love to play them again in Brooklyn. They won't have the crazy home court to help them along.
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  #315  
Old 03-06-2015, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by 86 Flyer View Post
With Davidson beating VCU last night. I see Dayton, VCU and Davidson all being about equal. Interestingly, the polls ranked the 3 teams Dayton, Davidson, VCU and the bracketologists rank the teams, VCU, Dayton, Davidson. I think Dayton and VCU will be 8 seeds and Davidson will be a 9 seed when Lunardi releases his latest bracket. All 3 teams should be in the dance, unless they lose their last regular season game AND the first game of the A10 Tournament.
I don't think even VCU fans would say VCU is equal to Davidson and Dayton. VCU has lost 3 in a row and they really don't look good. They need to win another game to get in the NCAA - either Saturday or in Brooklyn.
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  #316  
Old 03-06-2015, 09:10 AM
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Our boys in red and blue finally listed as a lock on bubble watch:

"And finally, how about those Flyers? Somehow, Archie Miller turned a literally short-handed roster -- Dayton has no rotation player taller than 6-foot-6 -- into the league's most reliable inside-the-arc scorers. Winners of six of their past seven, including a Feb. 28 win at VCU and Tuesday's victory versus Rhode Island, the Flyers have now done enough to seal their lock. They may not have the most impressive resume you'll see, and that Feb. 21 loss at Duquesne still stings. But they'll get in, A-10 tourney title or not."

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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  #317  
Old 03-06-2015, 09:22 AM
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Palm moved the Flyers to the 7 line
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Old 03-06-2015, 10:31 AM
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So does that mean if Davidson keeps winning and we lose the the next two that they will be taking 3 teams from the A10? With their RPI and SOS VCU is a lock.
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  #319  
Old 03-06-2015, 10:35 AM
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I've already got VCU penciled in as a first round NCAA loss and I don't even know who they're playing yet.
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  #320  
Old 03-06-2015, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
So does that mean if Davidson keeps winning and we lose the the next two that they will be taking 3 teams from the A10? With their RPI and SOS VCU is a lock.
Not sure what UD has to do with whether Davidson gets in. UD is in even if they lose their last two.

To feel safe Davidson still needs two more wins. Either beat Duquesne and win QF A-10 game or lose to Duquesne (hope so) and then get to the A10 finals. One more win and they may be OK, but two wins and they are in and probably avoid PiG.

Four A-10 teams is a real possibility if someone other than Davidson, UD, or VCU win in Brooklyn.
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  #321  
Old 03-06-2015, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Here is a link that focuses on projections

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology
If this is to be believed, then losing Saturday and again in next Friday's QF A10 Tourney game puts the Flyers at a 1 in 3 chance of making The Dance. Winning one more gets them to a 3 in 4 chance. Seems like quite a probability difference by getting win #24 but the Magic Number does seem to be 24 this year (or 1, if you want to look at it as a countdown now).
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Old 03-06-2015, 12:28 PM
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if VCU loses their next two, i can't see hhow they will get in.
Despite their RPI and SOS.

Last 10 used to mean something in the past, i dont' think they use that metric much. But if i 'm on the selection committee and they go 4 -6 in their last 10 and lost Weber the eye test gets, shall we say .... iffy

In fact, next game is against MAson. So if they lose that, they'd be 21-10 and don't deserve to get in. Half kidding. But then what if they lose first game of A10 also??? Change the picture some

My 2 cents~
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Old 03-06-2015, 12:47 PM
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Bracketology by Lunardi has Davidson, Dayton and VCU all in.

Bubble watch has Dayton and VCU as locks with Davidson needing to do a little more and Richmond a long shot.

RI and UMass done.
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  #324  
Old 03-06-2015, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
Bracketology by Lunardi has Davidson, Dayton and VCU all in.

Bubble watch has Dayton and VCU as locks with Davidson needing to do a little more and Richmond a long shot.

RI and UMass done.
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So now we all like Lunardi.
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  #325  
Old 03-06-2015, 02:08 PM
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My guess is 24 wins = 8 seed
25 wins = 7 seed
A10 Tournament Champ = 6 seed

just my guess!
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  #326  
Old 03-06-2015, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud View Post
My guess is 24 wins = 8 seed
25 wins = 7 seed
A10 Tournament Champ = 6 seed

just my guess!
Nice, not even thinking about 23.
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Old 03-06-2015, 02:20 PM
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I think everyone agrees that getting an 8 or 9 seed would not be good for our chances to progress out of the first weekend. On the other hand, I really hate UK. Could you imagine the hatred that UK fans would have for UD if somehow we were able to beat UK?!! UK fans still hate Duke because of Christian Laettner's last second shot. I'd love for UD to be etched in the memory of UK fans for a long time if we were the ones to ruin their chance for a perfect season. I don't think we could win over UK - but one can dream!
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Old 03-06-2015, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Nice, not even thinking about 23.
NOPE I'm not!
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Old 03-06-2015, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud View Post
My guess is 24 wins = 8 seed
25 wins = 7 seed
A10 Tournament Champ = 6 seed

just my guess!
Exactly my thinking jpk!
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:04 AM
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Lunardi just published the following. The last 8 in by order = Colorado State, Louisiana State, Oklahoma State, Purdue, BYU, Temple, Texas, and Indiana. The first 8 out by order = Texas A&M, Tulsa, UCLA, Miami, Old Dominion, Illinois, Murray State, and Richmond.

Even with a loss to either St. Bonnie's/St. Joe's in quarterfinals of A-10 tourney, it will be difficult for more than 8 of the teams above to pass Dayton. it is possible, but not probable to have enough teams above pass Dayton plus bid thieves.

The thing that will make me nervous is we are likely barely out according to the dance card which I like and a loss to St. Bonnie's/St. Joe's will make us one of the first out according to dance card.

BTW, 17 teams were below us at the beginning of the day according to braketmatrix -- http://www.bracketmatrix.com. Don't see us losing 2 in a row and dropping 17 places in the bracket. It would take a ton of bubble teams going on massive runs in their conference tourneys & a ton of bid thieves. Teams like Cincy, Ole Miss, Indy, Texas, Purdue, Texas A&M, Illinois, Tulsa, UCLA, Miami, etc. would have to go on massive runs and basically a vast majority of them to go ahead of Dayton.

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Old 03-08-2015, 03:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The thing that will make me nervous is we are likely barely out according to the dance card which I like and a loss to St. Bonnie's/St. Joe's will make us one of the first out according to dance card.
Right, that is what I think.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:41 AM
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Palm dropped us from a 7 to a 9. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Losing to St. Joe's/St. Bonnie's, would need to drop from 9 to 12 to miss out so still unlikely.
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Old 03-08-2015, 08:31 AM
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Rue, there probably won't be more than 2-3 bid thieves this year due to the fact that only the MVC has teams from a mid major that will get at large bids. The only other way a bid is "stolen" is by a lower level P5 team winning the conf tourney, which seems unlikely this year. That means there will be around 45 teams selected as at large.
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Old 03-08-2015, 02:40 PM
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Patrick Stevens still has UD an 8.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...tumbles_i.html
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Old 03-08-2015, 02:45 PM
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brackets

I really hate the thought of an 8-9 seed on many levels. Almost hope we are an 10-11 just because of the 2nd game matchup that looms if we are an 8-9.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by College B-Ball Fan View Post
I really hate the thought of an 8-9 seed on many levels. Almost hope we are an 10-11 just because of the 2nd game matchup that looms if we are an 8-9.
If you're going to beat a #1 seed, then the round of 32 is the time to do it. The whole arena will be rooting for you. If you're sent to Charlotte to play against Duke, 90% of the arena will be ACC fans that hate Duke. Other than Kentucky, none of the #1 seeds are horrible match ups for UD....at least not by #1 seed standards.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:42 PM
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Personally, as a fan, if you cold guarantee a matchup with a #1 seed in round 2 I'd be thrilled.

1st, it means they made the tournament.
2nd, it means they won a game
3rd, it means they have nothing to lose and if they win, they'll be the toast of the nation for 4 days until the sweet 16 starts up.

Think about all this team has overcome, not having a true backup PG in game 1, then only getting him for a handful of games before he ever got fully back in the swing. 2 tallest kids on the team, one starting, one playing solid backup minutes are kicked off the team. A talented Juco coming in with lots of promise, doesn't play a single minute. The tallest kid on the anticipated roster never gets to play either. Having to play a (former) walkon significant time all conference season long. Having a sizeable bullseye on their back most of the season due to the elite 8 run last season.

Sure, back to back sweet 16s or elite 8 would be awesome, no doubt, just getting out of that first weekend instantly drives up the PR machine for 4 days, but all things considered, losing in round 3 to a #1 seed wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, and the chance to pull of a memorable upset, well, all the better.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:43 PM
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UNI has come out of the locker room on a 24-4 run, taking a 6 point lead with about 11 to go. Obviously a lot of time left, but someone on the back of the bubble is breathing a little easier at the moment.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
If you're going to beat a #1 seed, then the round of 32 is the time to do it. The whole arena will be rooting for you. If you're sent to Charlotte to play against Duke, 90% of the arena will be ACC fans that hate Duke.

Concur. Can't worry about seeding. UD is playing with house money at this point anyway. A win in the Round of 64 would be gravy on this season, and a win in the Round of 32 would be incredible. I think even playing Kentucky would be fun because UD would have absolutely nothing to lose. No pressure. If UK is undefeated at that point, great, even more pressure and media scrutiny on them. Just go out, have fun, play loose with 95% of America rooting for you.

Who would have thought we would have a chance to play Kentucky (or Duke or whoever) back in mid-December? Not me.

Bring on the Big Blue.

That being said, I'm cool with a 10 or 11 seed too haha.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Personally, as a fan, if you cold guarantee a matchup with a #1 seed in round 2 I'd be thrilled.

1st, it means they made the tournament.
2nd, it means they won a game
3rd, it means they have nothing to lose and if they win, they'll be the toast of the nation for 4 days until the sweet 16 starts up.

Think about all this team has overcome, not having a true backup PG in game 1, then only getting him for a handful of games before he ever got fully back in the swing. 2 tallest kids on the team, one starting, one playing solid backup minutes are kicked off the team. A talented Juco coming in with lots of promise, doesn't play a single minute. The tallest kid on the anticipated roster never gets to play either. Having to play a (former) walkon significant time all conference season long. Having a sizeable bullseye on their back most of the season due to the elite 8 run last season.

Sure, back to back sweet 16s or elite 8 would be awesome, no doubt, just getting out of that first weekend instantly drives up the PR machine for 4 days, but all things considered, losing in round 3 to a #1 seed wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, and the chance to pull of a memorable upset, well, all the better.

Nice post Medford. You beat me to it by four minutes.

By the way, I think they went back to calling the Round of 32 the "second round" and not the confusing "third round," thank goodness...
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Old 03-08-2015, 05:07 PM
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Only bracket I do not like -- the one outlier with UD 3rd out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 03-08-2015, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Only bracket I do not like -- the one outlier with UD 3rd out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
And this has been one of the most accurate predictors of brackets over the past several years. That's why I say we need to win at least 1 in Brooklyn.
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Old 03-08-2015, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Only bracket I do not like -- the one outlier with UD 3rd out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I like Dance Card and I am a math guy but sometimes the formula are wrong. So who do you take out? I think BYU's big win at Gonzaga is getting them a lot (too much) of mileage. Same thing as Miami's win at Duke.
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Old 03-08-2015, 06:02 PM
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Should also be noted the Dance Card still uses the old RPI formula without the road win multiplier
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Old 03-08-2015, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
And this has been one of the most accurate predictors of brackets over the past several years. That's why I say we need to win at least 1 in Brooklyn.
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Follow Patrick Stevens. He's better than dancecard. He was the only one to get all picks correct last year. When Palm, Lunardi and Stevens have you at 9 or better- you're in. Mark it down.
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  #346  
Old 03-09-2015, 02:29 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Patrick Stevens still has UD an 8.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...tumbles_i.html
Stevens has 14 teams below Dayton in his S curve.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river
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Old 03-09-2015, 03:11 AM
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bracketmatrix.com wisdom of crowds has only missed 2 teams the last 3 years. In 2014, the crowed picked SMU as an 11 (SMU was in 96/121 brackets) and the committee selected NC State as a 12. In 2013, the crowd and committee agreed. In 2012, the crowd picked Seton Hall as a 12 (Seton Hall was in 65/115 brackets) and the committee picked Iona as a 14.

UD is an 8 in the latest bracket matrix and is in 82/83 brackets. Interestingly, the brackets that use a computer algorithm have UD generally as 10-12 where the human ones have UD generally between 8-10. This is consistent with dance card having UD out.

I would hypothesize UD is passing the eye test as people see Dayton as a team who could win 2 in the tourney, UD has a halo-effect from the Elite 8 run, and the 6 scholarship player story resonates with the crowd and will resonate with the committee.
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Old 03-09-2015, 09:00 AM
N2663R N2663R is offline
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
bracketmatrix.com wisdom of crowds has only missed 2 teams the last 3 years. In 2014, the crowed picked SMU as an 11 (SMU was in 96/121 brackets) and the committee selected NC State as a 12. In 2013, the crowd and committee agreed. In 2012, the crowd picked Seton Hall as a 12 (Seton Hall was in 65/115 brackets) and the committee picked Iona as a 14.

UD is an 8 in the latest bracket matrix and is in 82/83 brackets. Interestingly, the brackets that use a computer algorithm have UD generally as 10-12 where the human ones have UD generally between 8-10. This is consistent with dance card having UD out.

I would hypothesize UD is passing the eye test as people see Dayton as a team who could win 2 in the tourney, UD has a halo-effect from the Elite 8 run, and the 6 scholarship player story resonates with the crowd and will resonate with the committee.
Rue, this sounds very plausible. But . . . Chris R., you were in the room for the mock draft, does this jive with what you experienced first hand?.
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Old 03-09-2015, 09:59 AM
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New Bracketology is out... UD is a 9 seed... Nowhere close to the bubble

Us vs. St. John's... Winner plays Virginia more than likely

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Davidson... 8
Dayton... 9
VCU... 10

Richmond next four out
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Old 03-09-2015, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
New Bracketology is out... UD is a 9 seed... Nowhere close to the bubble
I'm sure that is assuming that UD doesn't lose Friday.

Assuming that they are the last nine seed, looking at last year, they would still have eleven teams behind them:

-Four 10 seeds
-Five eleven seeds
-Two twelve seeds
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  #351  
Old 03-09-2015, 10:42 AM
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The thing we have to look out for ONLY IF WE LOSE to SBU/SJU is bid-stealers coming from non at-large teams winning conference tournaments.

Here are the leagues to look out for bid-stealers:
A10
American
ACC
Big East
Big Ten
Big 12
Mountain West
Pac 12
SEC
West Coast

If we lose, and more than a couple of these end up having Cinderella winners, we may well be screwed.

If we take care of SBU/SJU, I think we end up a 10 at the worst and are pretty much insulated from bid-stealers.
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Old 03-09-2015, 10:53 AM
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I just want UD to make the dance, I don't care what the seed is.
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  #353  
Old 03-09-2015, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
New Bracketology is out... UD is a 9 seed... Nowhere close to the bubble

Us vs. St. John's... Winner plays Virginia more than likely

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Davidson... 8
Dayton... 9
VCU... 10

Richmond next four out
Joe Lunardi has Davidson v X, like that.
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  #354  
Old 03-09-2015, 11:02 AM
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Totally agree Gem. This seed talk is nonsense. I'd be happy with a 16.
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Old 03-09-2015, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
I just want UD to make the dance, I don't care what the seed is.
I just want Dayton to win the National Championship, don't care who the opponent is.
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  #356  
Old 03-09-2015, 01:25 PM
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FWIW, This time last year, we were an 11 (where we ended) up:

https://web.archive.org/web/20140309...l/bracketology
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  #357  
Old 03-09-2015, 04:07 PM
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Yahoo Sports has us as a 7 seed, which I think is unlikely.
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Old 03-09-2015, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
I just want UD to make the dance, I don't care what the seed is.
I just want UD to win the A10 tournament, get an NCAA 5 seed, play on Friday at 7pm in Columbus. Too much to ask?
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  #359  
Old 03-09-2015, 05:41 PM
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  #360  
Old 03-09-2015, 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
Rue, this sounds very plausible. But . . . Chris R., you were in the room for the mock draft, does this jive with what you experienced first hand?.
By the way, everyone will say they do not look at these factors, it is all about performance this year, but there is a human element that is subconscious.
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  #361  
Old 03-09-2015, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Totally agree Gem. This seed talk is nonsense. I'd be happy with a 16.
Excellent point! The seed doesn't change the potential quality of play be it a 6 or 16. Eventually, you have to play a 1 or 2...happens every time we've gotten into the Dance. UCLA, Georgetown, Villanova, Oklahoma and Florida come to mind.
But I do worry about sweating out selection Sunday with a loss out the gate in Brooklyn.
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Old 03-09-2015, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill McPeek View Post
Yahoo Sports has us as a 7 seed, which I think is unlikely.
Perhaps they are anticipating us doing well in the A10 tourney.
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  #363  
Old 03-10-2015, 08:30 PM
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I don't really agree with Jay Bilas' premise here, but it is an interesting idea - rank all the teams before the conference tournaments and then work from the bottom up as bids are awarded by conferences. UD listed at #37 on what amounts to Jay's S-curve. Should be safely in, assuming at least a few of the top 36 teams would win their conference tournament(s).

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/story?storyId=12454021

Personally, I really like championship week and the conference tournaments (especially the smaller conferences, though I also like the big boys going at it). I think it adds excitement to what otherwise would be a relatively dull week. And of course, the almighty dollar dictates that conference tournaments must take place.

At any rate, that puts us at a 10 seed, right? Sounds reasonable to me.
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  #364  
Old 03-10-2015, 10:06 PM
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This was kind of cool. If you check out the podcast that Warren Nolan has linked on his page, the six of them submitted their own brackets and/or seed lists, and the host tallied them up, so he was the only one that knew what the final bracket looked like. The rest of the people didn't. They then revealed it line by line and discussed it as they went, and there were some teams that disagreed on more than others.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/projection
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  #365  
Old 03-10-2015, 10:24 PM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Interesting update from Eamonn Brennan on bubble watch. He now has Davidson as an additional lock but if you read the commentary, VCU and Dayton still have some work to do in their minds. Gotta win on Friday.
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Old 03-11-2015, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Interesting update from Eamonn Brennan on bubble watch. He now has Davidson as an additional lock but if you read the commentary, VCU and Dayton still have some work to do in their minds. Gotta win on Friday.
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Per the latest update of the above page, Dayton and VCU are now being called locks.

However, the write-up says that a first round loss by UD in the A10 tournament would be "slightly disconcerting".

So, UD really isn't a lock, since if UD really was a lock there would be no reason to call a first round A10 tournament loss "slightly disconcerting".

My verdict: UD is still on the bubble.


And the writer also is not convinced that VCU is a lock either, even though they have VCU listed as a lock.

Davidson is the only A10 lock per the writer.

Last edited by ud2; 03-11-2015 at 04:40 PM..
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Old 03-11-2015, 05:20 PM
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So we are a Master Lock that can be opened with an aluminum can?

http://lifehacker.com/5866922/open-a...n-aluminum-can
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Old 03-12-2015, 02:03 PM
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March 12th ESPN update:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
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Old 03-12-2015, 02:16 PM
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Lasalle (RPI was 101) beating UMass is big. Gives the Flyers another top100 win and takes away a sub 100 loss.
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  #370  
Old 03-12-2015, 02:28 PM
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LaSalle now 96. Even if they lose tomorrow to Davidson they will increase their RPI standing.
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Old 03-12-2015, 03:28 PM
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Fordham up 27-22 over VCU with 3:43 left in 1st half. Pascall not playing.
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Old 03-12-2015, 05:08 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card says our bubble has burst, not good.
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Old 03-12-2015, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card says our bubble has burst, not good.
Our RPI is 33. Not sure why this guy has us at 45.
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Old 03-12-2015, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Our RPI is 33. Not sure why this guy has us at 45.
Yup. UDPrideRPI and RealTimeRPI both show our Flyers at 33, and ESPN's version has us at 32. Not sure what this dude is smoking.
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  #375  
Old 03-12-2015, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Our RPI is 33. Not sure why this guy has us at 45.
Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Yup. UDPrideRPI and RealTimeRPI both show our Flyers at 33, and ESPN's version has us at 32. Not sure what this dude is smoking.
It's been discussed on here before. Dance Card uses the old RPI formula that doesn't weigh road wins more than a home win. It actually states that they use the old RPI on their main page.

ESPN and UDPride are very comparable.

Last edited by 224; 03-12-2015 at 07:04 PM..
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Old 03-12-2015, 10:36 PM
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Just for grins, here's status of the 10 teams immediately below us in the RPI:

35-Boise State: Beat Air Force (RPI 237) 80-68; plays Wyoming (RPI 89) on Friday
36-Brigham Young: Lost to Gonzaga (RPI 8) 91-75
37-Georgia: Beat Auburn (RPI 150) 64-61; plays winner of South Carolina (RPI 98) vs. Ole Miss (RPI 51) on Friday
38-_avier: Playing Butler now
39-North Carolina State: Lost to Duke (RPI 5) 77-53
40-Ohio State: Playing Minnesota (RPI 91) now
41-Stephen F Austin: Beat San Houston State (RPI 87) 64-55; plays Northwestern State (RPI 159) on Friday
42-Tulsa: Beat SMU (RPI 14) 67-62; plays Houston (RPI 238) on Friday
43-St. John's (NY): Lost to Providence (RPI 20) 74-57
44-Texas: Lost to Iowa State (RPI 13) 69-67

So, 4 of the next 10 have already lost in their conference tourneys, with 2 games yet to be decided. And while the average RPI of the teams that beat those four is @ 11, the losers can do nothing more to improve their position.

I still say it'll take 1 win in Brooklyn to become a "lock". So, gentlemen, let's lock it up!
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Old 03-12-2015, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
It's been discussed on here before. Dance Card uses the old RPI formula that doesn't weigh road wins more than a home win. It actually states that they use the old RPI on their main page.

ESPN and UDPride are very comparable.

UDPride RPI has both old and new RPI values on it.
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Old 03-12-2015, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Just for grins, here's status of the 10 teams immediately below us in the RPI:

35-Boise State: Beat Air Force (RPI 237) 80-68; plays Wyoming (RPI 89) on Friday
36-Brigham Young: Lost to Gonzaga (RPI 8) 91-75
37-Georgia: Beat Auburn (RPI 150) 64-61; plays winner of South Carolina (RPI 98) vs. Ole Miss (RPI 51) on Friday
38-_avier: Playing Butler now
39-North Carolina State: Lost to Duke (RPI 5) 77-53
40-Ohio State: Playing Minnesota (RPI 91) now
41-Stephen F Austin: Beat San Houston State (RPI 87) 64-55; plays Northwestern State (RPI 159) on Friday
42-Tulsa: Beat SMU (RPI 14) 67-62; plays Houston (RPI 238) on Friday
43-St. John's (NY): Lost to Providence (RPI 20) 74-57
44-Texas: Lost to Iowa State (RPI 13) 69-67

So, 4 of the next 10 have already lost in their conference tourneys, with 2 games yet to be decided. And while the average RPI of the teams that beat those four is @ 11, the losers can do nothing more to improve their position.

I still say it'll take 1 win in Brooklyn to become a "lock". So, gentlemen, let's lock it up!
Tulsa lost that game against SMU.
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Old 03-13-2015, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer View Post
Tulsa lost that game against SMU.
Yep. My bad. That'll teach me to post while I'm at work.
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:12 AM
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Alright, guys, did something this morning with my nervous energy, because it's hard for me to work at this time of year.

I begin this with the premise that UD will lose tonight AND that UD is not already in... typical pessimistic, worst-case scenario Flyer fan stuff, I realize. And not necessarily my viewpoint. But I want to show it for the sake of argument.

There are 96 teams left as I see it, that fall into one of five pools of teams.

Pool 1: Already Qualified or One-Bid Leagues
1 Albany v. Stony Brook
2 North Florida
3 Coastal Carolina
4 ONE BID - Big Sky
5 ONE BID - Big West
6 Northeastern
7 Valparaiso
8 Yale v. Harvard
9 Manhattan
10 ONE BID - MEAC
11 Northern Iowa
12 Robert Morris
13 Belmont
14 Lafayette
15 ONE BID - Southland
16 Wofford
17 North Dakota State
18 ONE BID - Sun Belt
19 ONE BID - SWAC
20 ONE BID - WAC
21 Gonzaga

Pool 2: Conference favorites that we should root for:
22 Davidson
23 SMU
24 Virginia
25 Wisconsin
26 Villanova
27 Kansas
28 Louisiana Tech
29 Buffalo
30 Boise State
31 Arizona
32 Kentucky

Pool 3: Teams that are probably getting in anyway
33 VCU
34 Cincinnati
35 Duke
36 N. Carolina
37 Notre Dame
38 Louisville
39 Maryland
40 Michigan State
41 Ohio State
42 Georgetown
43 Providence
44 Butler
45 Xavier
46 Baylor
47 Iowa State
48 Oklahoma
49 West Virginia
50 Wichita State
51 Colorado State
52 San Diego State
53 Utah
54 Oregon
55 Arkansas

Pool 4: Bubble Teams - Pick Top 13 of 20
56 Dayton
57 Richmond
58 Temple
59 Tulsa
60 NC State
61 Miami (FL)
62 Iowa
63 Indiana
64 Purdue
65 St. John's
66 Texas
67 Oklahoma State
68 Old Dominion
69 Iona
70 UCLA
71 Stanford
72 Georgia
73 LSU
74 Ole Miss
75 BYU


Pool 5: Bid-Stealers! We need these teams to lose
76 Rhode Island
77 GW
78 LaSalle
79 St. Bonaventure
80 East Carolina
81 Memphis
82 Houston
83 Uconn
84 Michigan
85 Penn State
86 UTEP
87 Middle Tennessee
88 UAB
89 Central Michigan
90 Toledo
91 Akron
92 Wyoming
93 Florida
94 Auburn
95 Tennessee
96 South Carolina
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  #381  
Old 03-13-2015, 09:22 AM
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So, assuming worst case scenario, there are 7 conferences where bid-stealers can still win:

A10, American, B1G, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and SEC

Let's assume that the worst happens, that bid-stealers win ALL 7 of these conferences. That then means that the bubble shrinks to picking the Best 9 of these teams:

Pool 4: Bubble Teams - Pick Top 9 of 23
60 Louisiana Tech
61 Buffalo
62 Boise State
63 Dayton
64 Richmond
65 Temple
66 Tulsa
67 NC State
68 Miami (FL)
69 Iowa
70 Indiana
71 Purdue
72 St. John's
73 Texas
74 Oklahoma State
75 Old Dominion
76 Iona
77 UCLA
78 Stanford
79 Georgia
80 LSU
81 Ole Miss
82 BYU

And here they are with RPI numbers.

31 Buffalo
33 Temple
35 Dayton
37 Boise State
38 BYU
39 Georgia
40 NC State
42 Tulsa
43 Texas
44 St. John's
45 Iowa
46 Old Dominion
47 Oklahoma State
48 LSU
50 UCLA
51 Louisiana Tech
53 Iona
54 Richmond
55 Ole Miss
56 Indiana
57 Stanford
59 Purdue
62 Miami (FL)

Last edited by priceg75; 03-13-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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  #382  
Old 03-13-2015, 09:53 AM
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So, in the doomsday scenario I will grant you, which is that UD loses today and several conferences have poorly ranked RPI teams win their tournaments, then there is still a chance that UD gets left out.

But if we are talking about taking the best 9 from the list above, we still would have a better than 50% chance of getting in, as I think everyone from RPI 50 on down is a longshot in that scenario, and we beat Buffalo, Boise State, BYU, Georgia, Tulsa, Old Dominion, and LSU on the numbers in my opinion... assuming that our RPI would drop to somewhere around 45 with a loss.
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Old 03-13-2015, 10:12 AM
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http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

Has UD as a 10 seed
71% to make tourney
54% to get an at large

I think this game tonight means more than we would like to think it does...
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  #384  
Old 03-13-2015, 10:25 AM
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Bubble Teams

Here is how I rank your 20 bubble teams assuming Dayton loses and 13 teams make the cut. Some teams still can play them selves ahead of UD and some can still play themselves below UD. It will be close, but I think in doomsday scenario, UD is still in.

1 NC State done
2 St. John's done
3 UCLA play Ariz
4 Iowa done
5 LSU play Auburn
6 Georgia play SC
7 Indiana play Maryland
8 Temple play Memphis
9 Oklahoma State done
10 BYU done
11 Purdue play PSU
12 Dayton Assume loss to SBU
13 Texas done
14 Tulsa play Houston
15 Ole Miss done
16 Stanford done
17 Miami (FL) done
18 Old Dominion done
19 Richmond play VCU
20 Iona done
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  #385  
Old 03-13-2015, 10:42 AM
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I took this list above (nice recap, BTW) and went on http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tou.../bracketology/ to get the percentage odds of an at large bid as of today. Granted, those alive can still get an automatic, but here is how we stand. I am seeing that we are ahead of only 6 of these teams for an at large big. Granted, win today and we are in... thoughts?

1 NC State done - 99% at large
2 St. John's done - 98% AL
3 UCLA play Ariz - 61% AL
4 Iowa done - 95% AL
5 LSU play Auburn - 87% AL
6 Georgia play SC - 78% AL
7 Indiana play Maryland - 34% AL
8 Temple play Memphis - 89% AL
9 Oklahoma State done - 57% AL
10 BYU done - 94% AL
11 Purdue play PSU - 62% AL
12 Dayton Assume loss to SBU - 54% AL
13 Texas done - 57% AL
14 Tulsa play Houston - 85% AL
15 Ole Miss done - 25% AL
16 Stanford done - 3% AL
17 Miami (FL) done - 43% AL
18 Old Dominion done - 1% AL
19 Richmond play VCU - 12% AL
20 Iona done - 11% AL
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Old 03-13-2015, 11:01 AM
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I think if LSU, Georgia, Purdue, and Temple lose, we shoot up the charts.

I'm rooting hard for those in particular.
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Old 03-13-2015, 11:20 AM
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It feels weird being this nervous. None of the major networks even consider us a bubble team.
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  #388  
Old 03-13-2015, 11:33 AM
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Only Dayton fans try to convince themselves they are not a tourney team...Unreal
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  #389  
Old 03-13-2015, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Only Dayton fans try to convince themselves they are not a tourney team...Unreal
It is all just data from websites and talking heads. Some positive, some not so positive. I think it is interesting to sift through all of this and see best and worst case scenarios.
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Old 03-13-2015, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Only Dayton fans try to convince themselves they are not a tourney team...Unreal
Selective perception! It eases the potential pain of disappointment (Flyer loss).
Comes immediately after selective exposure, and precedes selective retention.
If none of these filters do the job, we go crazy...unreal it is!!!
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  #391  
Old 03-13-2015, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Only Dayton fans try to convince themselves they are not a tourney team...Unreal
Only Dayton fans try to convince them themselves they are a lock ignoring the lack of Top 50 wins, and worst overall SOS compared to other bubble teams.

(We can play this game all day, just let it go already, Elsa.)
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Old 03-13-2015, 04:54 PM
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I think you can put a nail in Richmond & VCU's NCAA bid now. I mostly thought Richmond had to win the A10 to get a bid, but a small window for an at large bid, however falling to VCU nailed the door shut. On the other hand, I thought VCU was likely in no matter what, but you certainly have to question how they've played since losing Weber. Lots of losses to quality team, unimpressive wins vs poor teams. The win over Richmond put that to rest a bit and locks them into a bid given their strong OOC resume.
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Old 03-13-2015, 06:05 PM
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VCU and Davidson are locks

If we win today-lock

If we lose today-bubble and blood, sweat and tears until Sunday's Show. Write it down!

Start saying some Hail Mary's...
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  #394  
Old 03-13-2015, 06:12 PM
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If we lose, who overtakes us? I see only 5 teams out of the last 8 in and the first 8 out (16 teams) that could overtake Dayton which would mean we still are in unless there are more than 3 bid thieves. Overall the bubble games the last 2 days have been kind to us. BTW, out of the 5 teams, only 2 Temple and Purdue won. UCLA, Tulsa, and Indiana have yet to play today.

Last Four Byes
LSU = lost
Oklahoma State = lost
Purdue = possible as won
BYU = lost
Last Four In
Ole Miss = lost
Texas = lost
Temple = possible as won
Indiana = possible as still must play
First Four Out
Miami (FL) = lost
UCLA = possible as still must play
Tulsa = possible as still must play
Old Dominion = lost
Next Four Out
Texas A&M = lost
Murray State = lost
Iona = lost
Richmond = lost
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Old 03-13-2015, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
If we lose, who overtakes us? I see only 5 teams out of the last 8 in and the first 8 out (16 teams) that could overtake Dayton which would mean we still are in unless there are more than 3 bid thieves. Overall the bubble games the last 2 days have been kind to us. BTW, out of the 5 teams, only 2 Temple and Purdue won. UCLA, Tulsa, and Indiana have yet to play today.

Last Four Byes
LSU = lost
Oklahoma State = lost
Purdue = possible as won
BYU = lost
Last Four In
Ole Miss = lost
Texas = lost
Temple = possible as won
Indiana = possible as still must play
First Four Out
Miami (FL) = lost
UCLA = possible as still must play
Tulsa = possible as still must play
Old Dominion = lost
Next Four Out
Texas A&M = lost
Murray State = lost
Iona = lost
Richmond = lost
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Old 03-13-2015, 08:50 PM
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Lose semis = 35 RPI, lose finals = 30 RPI, win finals = 25 rpi.
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Old 03-13-2015, 08:55 PM
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WHEW!!!!
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:00 PM
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BTW, LSU and Indy lost today too. The only 2 teams that COULD PASS Dayton in the last 8 in are Purdue and Temple. The only 2 teams that COULD PASS Dayton in the first 8 out are Tulsa (who won) and UCLA (who plays later versus Arizona).

Lock it up, Dayton is in.
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:03 PM
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Now I can rest easy and enjoy all the good basketball this weekend, because we have got to be in.

Now I hope we can win the a-10 now, and maybe get out of the dreaded 8/9 seed and into the 7.
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:07 PM
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Would rather be a 10 or even an 11 than 8 or 9.
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