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07-23-2015, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
The TBD is a home game. Alabama is a power 5 home & home series.
@DavidPJablonski
Archie Miller says Dayton will play at Alabama next season after hosting AlaBama this season.
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Oh, thanks. That changes my tune a bit. I'll assume the TBD is at best a 150ish rpi "buy" game. With only 1 true road game, this OOC isn't all that great, unless they can knock off Iowa and get high quality two more games in Orlando.
Chattanoga is supposed to be pretty solid, North Florida is on the rise, IIRC and might push for top 100. Miami was playing better late last year, so hopefully better, but still outside the top 150 would be my guess. Vandy is going to be good. I think Bama will be OK, top 100, but closer to 100 than 50. Arkansas will drop, but they won't be near as strong as last season, likely pushing around top 100. Can't say much about Furman or SE Mo St. Typical buy games, would be a boost to overall SOS if they could push into the top 200.
Overall, outside of Orlando, its going to be tough to find a top 50 win OOC. Vandy might be there, but on the road, that's going to be a tough victory. If they lose to Iowa (and get poor competition the rest of Orlando) its going to be tough to earn anything better than an 8 seed w/o dominating the A10.
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07-23-2015, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
depends on who TBD is. Potential to be a very solid slate.
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Since it's home game, it's likely just a buy game. It's missing that Top-75 RPI road game that I thought had been rumored.
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07-23-2015, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
Overall, outside of Orlando, its going to be tough to find a top 50 win OOC. Vandy might be there, but on the road, that's going to be a tough victory. If they lose to Iowa (and get poor competition the rest of Orlando) its going to be tough to earn anything better than an 8 seed w/o dominating the A10.
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If we do not do well in Orlando which means beating Iowa, we are going to have a tough time finding top 50 wins which is key criteria in getting into the NCAA. Iowa and possibly Vandy only opportunities out of conference. RI 2x, Davidson 1x, and VCU 1x are likely top 50. Perhaps GW becomes top 50.
So if lose to Iowa, 1-2 games OOC & 3-5 in conference so 4-6 games versus top 50. If beat Iowa, likely get 2 more top 50 games so 3-5 OOC and 3-5 in conference or 6-10 games overall. Huge game versus Iowa.
Last year, we were 1-3 top 50 and on the bubble. According to dance card, should have been out due to lack of top 50 wins.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I think we will have a great team the next 2 years, but worried that 4-6 top 50 games puts a ton of pressure on each top 50 game to win. Leaves very little margin for error.
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07-23-2015, 04:33 PM
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Alabama lost their top 3 scorers from last season. Rebuilding year with a new coach, that's probably not even a Top 100 RPI game. Also, doesn't look like we are going to take advantage of this being a "non-bracketed" game either. We could still schedule another game on top of the TBD game if we did.
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07-23-2015, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
Alabama lost their top 3 scorers from last season. Rebuilding year with a new coach, that's probably not even a Top 100 RPI game. Also, doesn't look like we are going to take advantage of this being a "non-bracketed" game either. We could still schedule another game on top of the TBD game if we did.
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Correct. Technically two more games could be scheduled. Doesn't look like that's going to happen though. Hate to say it but boy that Iowa game is huge.
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07-23-2015, 07:00 PM
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It would have been nice to have scheduled one more series on the road instead of the TBD. Flyers should be playing for seeding and not making the tourney at this point. The A10 didn't do us any favors grouping us with Duquesne, Bonnies and Lasalle.
Vandy and Rhode Island are likely the only chances to get a good win on the road
Last year there's a pretty strong argument beating VCU on the road is what got us in the tourney.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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07-23-2015, 08:00 PM
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There's also a school of thought that we should handle the weak pod to get a good seed in the A10 Tourney and win the whole thing--- and the auto bid that goes with it. Let's just take care of business this A10 season and stop obsessing over the RPI and SOS. That's a confident winner's approach.
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07-23-2015, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
It would have been nice to have scheduled one more series on the road instead of the TBD.
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Agreed. Decent Mac team or someone like Murray State starting on the road would have looked good with the other series.
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07-23-2015, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
The remaining is a buy game. Pride+ has it narrowed down to two possibilities. One im very excited about, the other not so much
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I hope it's an SEC team... we could win 2 conferences this year.
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07-23-2015, 08:57 PM
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No guarantee that Iowa will end up top 50. They were barely there last year. We could lose to Iowa and end up playing X, who may end up top 50. X annually plays like crap in these pre-season tourneys.
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07-23-2015, 09:04 PM
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Iowa ND Wich
or
Iowa ND _avier
Id really like to beat the Shockers with VanVleet and Baker but man this is the only way we can get _avier
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07-23-2015, 09:34 PM
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Can anyone with insight explain why we scheduled a team from the tournament we're playing in (Bama) but didn't take advantage of the extra game it could have provided? Color me confused.
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07-23-2015, 09:51 PM
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07-23-2015, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Can anyone with insight explain why we scheduled a team from the tournament we're playing in (Bama) but didn't take advantage of the extra game it could have provided? Color me confused.
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It is the extra game. alabama agreed to it as a home and home, were going there next year
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07-23-2015, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Can anyone with insight explain why we scheduled a team from the tournament we're playing in (Bama) but didn't take advantage of the extra game it could have provided? Color me confused.
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Comes down to SOS. Simply adding a game for addition's sake does not necessarily help the schedule. It must be a quality enough team to help you instead of hurt you, taken in its totality with the rest of the schedule that is already set. If you can't find one that does just that, it's better to roll without.
It did offer an opportunity to schedule an additional opponent, but most of the good ones were long taken after Dayton patiently waited to get a commitment from Bama. Im not even sure Bama is taking advantage of a 4th game?
I believe UD was prepared to play at Alabama this year in order to make a deal happen (which is why 99% of all Power-5 series with UD start on the road). However Alabama had little interest in making the game happen. That is until ESPN got involved. But ESPN had little interest in broadcasting the game at Alabama. They only wanted to broadcast it in Dayton. Once Bama found out ESPN wanted to put the game on TV, they agreed to play us. This is not the first time this has happened in UD's scheduling.
So in other words, Alabama would rather play Dayton in Dayton on ESPN than in Tuscaloosa without national TV. That's the pull of the Flyer Faithful. UD is fortunate because aside from the fan base that makes for good TV, Dayton admins have a very good relationship with the sports cable networks. A lot of this back-room dealing comes down to relationships and who you know.
We were also working on another Power-5 series, but that opponent was so adamant about not playing at UD Arena they actually proposed that both games in the series be held on neutral courts in respective geographic zones -- giving up their own home-court game (which is one of the tougher home courts in the country) to ensure UD Arena was not in play. It never panned out as facilities w/in say 75-100 miles of each team to accommodate enough fans were all booked on the dates and times that would work. That's some serious respect to UD's home court however.
I dont think Flyer fans realize how tough they make scheduling. The fans are a net gain of course for the overall health of the basketball program, but this is one area where you make UD's life exceedingly difficult. The athletic department tries every Rube Goldberg idea possible to get quality opponents on the schedule. They are constantly thinking about the fans.
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07-23-2015, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
We were also working on another Power-5 series, but that opponent was so adamant about not playing at UD Arena they actually proposed that both games in the series be held on neutral courts in respective geographic zones -- giving up their own home-court game (which is one of the tougher home courts in the country) to ensure UD Arena was not in play. It never panned out as facilities w/in say 75-100 miles of each team to accommodate enough fans were all booked on the dates and times that would work. That's some serious respect to UD's home court however.
I dont think Flyer fans realize how tough they make scheduling. The fans are a net gain of course for the overall health of the basketball program, but this is one area where you make UD's life exceedingly difficult. The athletic department tries every Rube Goldberg idea possible to get quality opponents on the schedule. They are constantly thinking about the fans.
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Two thoughts-
1) Really wonder who that other power five was
2) When it comes to scheduling, if UD does what is best for getting them to NCAA tourney, they will have answered the number one desire of the fanbase. Aside from the occasional knucklehead, everyone wants the same thing.
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07-23-2015, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
We were also working on another Power-5 series, but that opponent was so adamant about not playing at UD Arena they actually proposed that both games in the series be held on neutral courts in respective geographic zones -- giving up their own home-court game (which is one of the tougher home courts in the country) to ensure UD Arena was not in play. It never panned out as facilities w/in say 75-100 miles of each team to accommodate enough fans were all booked on the dates and times that would work. That's some serious respect to UD's home court however.
I dont think Flyer fans realize how tough they make scheduling. The fans are a net gain of course for the overall health of the basketball program, but this is one area where you make UD's life exceedingly difficult. The athletic department tries every Rube Goldberg idea possible to get quality opponents on the schedule. They are constantly thinking about the fans.
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I find that surprising they'd agree to a neutral game series but not home and home? If they are agreeing to play us, wouldn't an away game be more advantageous for their RPI than a nuertrual game? Win or loss for them on the road, schedule a game on the road and come out ahead versus it being played on a neutral court.
Obviously they wouldn't do it because they must think they have a chance to beat us at a neutral court but not on our court. But still if that's true, and if in theory home court gives you a 3 pt advantage, that means they know now in July it'll be a close game wherever it is played. So maybe they should have some more faith in how their team will play in December and schedule the game!
Surprising to me Kansas would act like this
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07-23-2015, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
It did offer an opportunity to schedule an additional opponent, but most of the good ones were long taken after Dayton patiently waited to get a commitment from Bama. Im not even sure Bama is taking advantage of a 4th game?
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Even before Alabama agreed we could have still scheduled another opponent. We didn't need to wait on them if a good one was available.
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07-24-2015, 12:07 AM
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Originally Posted by bcross
Even before Alabama agreed we could have still scheduled another opponent. We didn't need to wait on them if a good one was available.
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Only if:
a) another good one was indeed available
b) dates and times and locations were mutually doable
This late in the season you are constrained by dates and times more than anything. When 90% of the 350 D-I teams have 90% of their schedules locked, you're left with 10% of the teams with moderate flexibility in more than 10% of their schedule. It's slim pickins'. And then it comes down to just a couple legitimate teams remaining that have serious interest in playing Dayton. Consider one team a Power-5, and another a good but not great buy game. How long do you hold out on the Power-5? You want to hold out as long as you can, but at some point if you hold out too long you lose the decent buy game as well and you're out two opponents not just one.
And that doesn't even consider the dates and times that technically open but entirely impractical. That chews up even more availability. You might in theory have an open date to play at Arizona State on a Thursday night. But if you have a home game Saturday night against Murray State, its suicide. Striking the balance to create a competitive schedule that also takes into consideration the welfare of the players, their bodies, winter exams, etc is all part of the science.
Dayton is usually not a Power-5 team's first option. So the Power-5 teams will use teams like Dayton as a fallback and string you along as long as they can to keep you "listening" while working back-door to get a better team than Dayton on the schedule. As soon as they can strike up a deal with another Power-5 team (often one-time neutral site games), they finally tell Dayton "we're not interested". But by that time its June or July and not April or May. Its really is like a game of poker. You have to size up who's being sincere and who's just stringing you along for a late bluff. Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you.
Scheduling is very much like recruiting. Is the big stud just giving you the token song and dance, or are they legitimately interested? You gotta be good at reading tea leaves, but batting 1.000 is impossible.
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07-24-2015, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
There's also a school of thought that we should handle the weak pod to get a good seed in the A10 Tourney and win the whole thing--- and the auto bid that goes with it. Let's just take care of business this A10 season and stop obsessing over the RPI and SOS. That's a confident winner's approach.
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We did that last year. We had exactly one loss that I would term as "bad"... at Duquesne. And nearly got left out. We finished 2nd in the A10. Thank God for the road win at VCU...
Rhode Island may well be the only quality in-conference opponent we play on the road this year. "Alabama" as the name opponent was not worth the tease we got on here about a P5 series. About the last thing we need on the schedule is another low-level SEC opponent.
We HAVE TO beat Iowa, and maybe also Notre Dame or we literally will have no margin for error this year. I don't understand why we can't get a series with a non-con opponent who is not Power 5 but is respectable. Iona. Winthrop. St. Mary's. Buffalo. Half of the Mountain West. Half of the MVC. Tulsa. They seriously can't find one mid-major who is willing to visit the Arena?
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07-24-2015, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
We did that last year. We had exactly one loss that I would term as "bad"... at Duquesne. And nearly got left out. We finished 2nd in the A10. Thank God for the road win at VCU...
Rhode Island may well be the only quality in-conference opponent we play on the road this year. "Alabama" as the name opponent was not worth the tease we got on here about a P5 series. About the last thing we need on the schedule is another low-level SEC opponent.
We HAVE TO beat Iowa, and maybe also Notre Dame or we literally will have no margin for error this year. I don't understand why we can't get a series with a non-con opponent who is not Power 5 but is respectable. Iona. Winthrop. St. Mary's. Buffalo. Half of the Mountain West. Half of the MVC. Tulsa. They seriously can't find one mid-major who is willing to visit the Arena?
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Iona? Winthrop? Buffalo? Tulsa? Respectable for a series? Am I missing something here? Iona and Winthrop can battle it out for 16 seeds. Buffalo lost its best player and coach. Tulsa is ok...not anything special to start a series with IMHO. I would rather play Alabama or Arkansas than any of these teams.
I do agree 100% that we do not schedule enough MVC and Mountain West teams.
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07-24-2015, 09:18 AM
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As they learned a few years ago (Wyoming) some of those places in the Mountain West can be a pain to get in/out of that time of year. Many of them are long flight as well, while most of the SEC schools (all of them really) you can leave after the game and be back home before Tim's closes. (assuming a 7:00 tip) A series with New Mexico & UNLV would work however.
In the MVC, outside of WSU and Northern Iowa, there isn't much constancy. Lots of tough places to play, not a lot of consistent top 75 results.
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07-24-2015, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
We did that last year. We had exactly one loss that I would term as "bad"... at Duquesne. And nearly got left out. We finished 2nd in the A10. Thank God for the road win at VCU...
Rhode Island may well be the only quality in-conference opponent we play on the road this year. "Alabama" as the name opponent was not worth the tease we got on here about a P5 series. About the last thing we need on the schedule is another low-level SEC opponent.
We HAVE TO beat Iowa, and maybe also Notre Dame or we literally will have no margin for error this year. I don't understand why we can't get a series with a non-con opponent who is not Power 5 but is respectable. Iona. Winthrop. St. Mary's. Buffalo. Half of the Mountain West. Half of the MVC. Tulsa. They seriously can't find one mid-major who is willing to visit the Arena?
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There is absolutely no reason why UD should go on the road to play any of those teams (Iona, Winthrop, Buffalo, etc.). We already have enough 100-150 RPI land mines in conference play. A win there means nothing, a loss could mean no NCAAT. After years and years of the same situation regarding scheduling I don't understand how some fans can't get that. Give me Chatt and North Florida at home 100 times than any of those road games.
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07-24-2015, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
There is absolutely no reason why UD should go on the road to play any of those teams (Iona, Winthrop, Buffalo, etc.). We already have enough 100-150 RPI land mines in conference play. A win there means nothing, a loss could mean no NCAAT. After years and years of the same situation regarding scheduling I don't understand how some fans can't get that. Give me Chatt and North Florida at home 100 times than any of those road games.
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Disagree. Non-conf true road game win against a potential top 100 rpi program like Buffalo would look very good to committee and a loss wouldn't be a killer. Nothing to lose except of course revenue.
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07-24-2015, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
Disagree. Non-conf true road game win against a potential top 100 rpi program like Buffalo would look very good to committee and a loss wouldn't be a killer. Nothing to lose except of course revenue.
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Lasalle ended up on KenPom #104 last year. That loss nearly kept UD out of the tournament. It is the exact same situation. We already play ~3-5 road games at teams like Buffalo in the conference season. There is absolutely no reason to schedule more and risk the loss when a win gets you absolutely nothing.
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07-24-2015, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
There is absolutely no reason why UD should go on the road to play any of those teams (Iona, Winthrop, Buffalo, etc.). We already have enough 100-150 RPI land mines in conference play. A win there means nothing, a loss could mean no NCAAT. After years and years of the same situation regarding scheduling I don't understand how some fans can't get that. Give me Chatt and North Florida at home 100 times than any of those road games.
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Except the Committee looks at what you do on the road. I like this schedule except that there is only one true non-con road game. I think that is what some are saying. Normally we wouldn't want to play an MAC team on the road (even though we've played Miami for years). But if it's all you can get, a good MAC team wouldn't be bad. It would be better than having only one road game. But I understand what Chris is saying about Power5 teams stringing us along until it is too late to get anybody else. It just seems that somehow, some way we needed to get another road game.
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07-24-2015, 10:28 AM
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I would throw some extra money at a team like Buffalo to get them at UD Arena for a buy game, but that's not a team I want to play in a H/H. The MAC is a one bid conference. No reason to be playing those teams on the road.
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07-24-2015, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
Disagree. Non-conf true road game win against a potential top 100 rpi program like Buffalo would look very good to committee and a loss wouldn't be a killer. Nothing to lose except of course revenue.
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Buffalo is no different than Eastern Michigan, or Bowling Green, or Miami OH. They get 20 wins each year beating nobody. Last year they got hot at the right time and made a run.
Originally Posted by bcross
I would throw some extra money at a team like Buffalo to get them at UD Arena for a buy game, but that's not a team I want to play in a H/H. The MAC is a one bid conference. No reason to be playing those teams on the road.
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I agree 100% and I am a guy who worked at a school in the MAC and have a degree from a MAC school. We should not be having H&H's from any school from a 1 bid league unless it is Gonzaga, Murray State (even then I would prefer 2-1), or Butler when they were in the Horizon.
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07-24-2015, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
I would throw some extra money at a team like Buffalo to get them at UD Arena for a buy game, but that's not a team I want to play in a H/H. The MAC is a one bid conference. No reason to be playing those teams on the road.
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I definitely think the vast majority of teams in the MAC are not worth doing a H/H with (including the one we currently have scheduled), but I am okay with doing a H/H with a team that's likely to win that conference (or similar conferences) I think...
But perhaps you all are right, and I am wrong. In most years would the last place team in a power five conference like the SEC finish with an RPI significantly ahead of the first place team in a conference like the MAC?
If the answer is yes, then I'll have to reconsider my position...
Last edited by DallasFlyer; 07-24-2015 at 01:24 PM..
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07-24-2015, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
There is absolutely no reason why UD should go on the road to play any of those teams (Iona, Winthrop, Buffalo, etc.). We already have enough 100-150 RPI land mines in conference play. A win there means nothing, a loss could mean no NCAAT. After years and years of the same situation regarding scheduling I don't understand how some fans can't get that. Give me Chatt and North Florida at home 100 times than any of those road games.
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You are wrong. This is the first time in recent memory that we are only going to have one true OOC road game... usually we have 2 or 3 in addition to a neutral-site tournament.
This is not the same situation. It seems like they have made a conscious choice to only have one true road game this year. For a team like us that is constantly on the knife's edge of getting in or not, we don't need to give the committee more reasons to keep us out. One true road game OOC is another bullet in the chamber.
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07-24-2015, 01:36 PM
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I'm just depressed, I'm tired of talking about this, I've said all I can say, I have nothing new to offer.
The SOS IMO has to get better for the program to move to the next level. That involves playing fewer buy games and more road games as part of home and home series. And of course losing home game revenue.
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07-24-2015, 01:45 PM
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As far as my post goes, substitute in any team that will likely have a top-100 RPI with my list. I'm not married to anyone specific. Last year there were over 35 teams inside the top-100 RPI and 32 teams inside the kenpom top-100 that were not P5, NBE, AAC, or A10 teams. We can't get a series with any of these, or some teams who might take their place in the standings? We can't reasonably forecast which ones won't be a horrible albatross with some reasonable certainty?
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07-24-2015, 02:04 PM
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There other thing that might worth considering if we can't get a h/h lined up is a one shot game at an opponents place or a neutral court. A series would be ideal but if TV lined up behind the game it could be worth it
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07-24-2015, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
You are wrong. This is the first time in recent memory that we are only going to have one true OOC road game... usually we have 2 or 3 in addition to a neutral-site tournament.
This is not the same situation. It seems like they have made a conscious choice to only have one true road game this year. For a team like us that is constantly on the knife's edge of getting in or not, we don't need to give the committee more reasons to keep us out. One true road game OOC is another bullet in the chamber.
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The fact that some people want to play another road game against LaSalle (that's the kind of team you are begging for!) is mind boggling. We have a very veteran team this year. They don't need to learn how to win on the road, they already know how.
Losing a road game to teams like that gives the committee the reason to leave us out. Not playing that land mind game may make them think but it won't keep us out. The risk/reward just isn't there.
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07-24-2015, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
The fact that some people want to play another road game against LaSalle (that's the kind of team you are begging for!) is mind boggling. We have a very veteran team this year. They don't need to learn how to win on the road, they already know how.
Losing a road game to teams like that gives the committee the reason to leave us out. Not playing that land mind game may make them think but it won't keep us out. The risk/reward just isn't there.
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Yeah, I just fundamentally disagree with this.
The selection committee rewards you for playing road games, even more so if you win.
IMO, there is little to no punishment for losing a tough road game.
IMO, there is great punishment for losing a buy game.
A LaSalle-type team may be the best they can do, but I doubt it. I bet there are decent non p5 teams that will play them home and home.
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07-24-2015, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Yeah, I just fundamentally disagree with this.
The selection committee rewards you for playing road games, even more so if you win.
IMO, there is little to no punishment for losing a tough road game.
IMO, there is great punishment for losing a buy game.
A LaSalle-type team may be the best they can do, but I doubt it. I bet there are decent non p5 teams that will play them home and home.
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I agree that there is little to no punishment for losing a tough road game. But the MAC teams people are mentioning are not considered tough road games. Another committee aspect. Say you go to Buffalo and they are decent. And we lose. Dayton is on the bubble. Buffalo is on the bubble. Buffalo owns a win over Dayton. Seems pretty easy for the committee there.
All I'm saying is we already play too many of these games during the conference season. If we didn't have to play at SLU, LaSalle, Dukes, Mason, Fordham, etc. then sure go grab another OOC road game with a 100ish+ RPI or so.
Last year Texas lost a lot of road games in conference to quality teams. Committee did not sting them for that. If teams like 2015 Texas had to play the next tier lower on the road (LaSalle, Dukes, Bonnies, etc.) then they would probably lose those games too and get left out. Why would we purposely subject the team to more of that?
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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07-24-2015, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
I agree that there is little to no punishment for losing a tough road game. But the MAC teams people are mentioning are not considered tough road games. Another committee aspect. Say you go to Buffalo and they are decent. And we lose. Dayton is on the bubble. Buffalo is on the bubble. Buffalo owns a win over Dayton. Seems pretty easy for the committee there.
All I'm saying is we already play too many of these games during the conference season. If we didn't have to play at SLU, LaSalle, Dukes, Mason, Fordham, etc. then sure go grab another OOC road game with a 100ish+ RPI or so.
Last year Texas lost a lot of road games in conference to quality teams. Committee did not sting them for that. If teams like 2015 Texas had to play the next tier lower on the road (LaSalle, Dukes, Bonnies, etc.) then they would probably lose those games too and get left out. Why would we purposely subject the team to more of that?
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I don't know, I'm just real skeptical.
Look at Richmond, SOS of 47 last year, and VCU, SOS of 15 last year.
Among other games, Richmond played at Old Dominion and at Northern Iowa.
VCU played at Old Dominion and at Illinois State, they played Northen Iowa at home, I bet they play NIU at NIU this year.
Let's play at NIU or at ODU or at ISU in addition to the p5 series we play.
And look at UMass, SOS of 50 last year. They played at Harvard and at BYU among other games.
Why are Richmond and UMass playing a tougher schedule than UD??? We should be in the top 3 or so of SOS in the A10 every year.
Last year, UD had only the 7th best SOS in the A10. I don't like that. We can do better than that.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_atl10_Men.html
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07-24-2015, 02:32 PM
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I admit that I know nothing about scheduling. That said, I can't believe that X, Wichita State or Notre Dame would not take a 2 for 1 with us. Free game this year at their place as exempt game then a 2 year H/H.
I believe our schedule will determine our NCAA seeding. Even if we lost all three it looks better than 3 wins vs 200+ rpi's.
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07-24-2015, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
You are wrong. This is the first time in recent memory that we are only going to have one true OOC road game... usually we have 2 or 3 in addition to a neutral-site tournament.
This is not the same situation. It seems like they have made a conscious choice to only have one true road game this year. For a team like us that is constantly on the knife's edge of getting in or not, we don't need to give the committee more reasons to keep us out. One true road game OOC is another bullet in the chamber.
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We also now have an additional road game in conference.
Total Road/Neutral Games:
2015-16: 13
2014-15: 14
2013-14: 14
2012-13: 13
2011-12: 13
2010-11: 12
2009-10: 14
2008-09: 13
2007-08: 12
2006-07: 12
This year's schedule is in the line with the past decade.
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07-24-2015, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I don't know, I'm just real skeptical.
Look at Richmond, SOS of 47 last year, and VCU, SOS of 15 last year.
Among other games, Richmond played at Old Dominion and at Northern Iowa.
VCU played at Old Dominion and at Illinois State, they played Northen Iowa at home, I bet they play NIU at NIU this year.
Let's play at NIU or at ODU or at ISU in addition to the p5 series we play.
And look at UMass, SOS of 50 last year. They played at Harvard and at BYU among other games.
Why are Richmond and UMass playing a tougher schedule than UD??? We should be in the top 3 or so of SOS in the A10 every year.
Last year, UD had only the 7th best SOS in the A10. I don't like that. We can do better than that.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_atl10_Men.html
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I think what Archie said is playing into this. Teams just do not want to come to UD Arena. I completely agree with the practice of not taking 2/1 from teams like Xavier, BYU, Gonzaga, etc. UD should not be in that business.
I'd rather have the North Florida and Chatt wins. Those teams will be right around the RPI of what we are looking for and they will most likely be home wins.
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07-24-2015, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I'm just depressed, I'm tired of talking about this, I've said all I can say, I have nothing new to offer.
The SOS IMO has to get better for the program to move to the next level. That involves playing fewer buy games and more road games as part of home and home series. And of course losing home game revenue.
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I whole-hearted agree, The last 2 NCAA's are pumping $7 Mil revenue into budget, not taking risks only puts us on the bubble. We are loaded the next 2years, why not take those 2 for 1 risks now? I don't believe Temple ever got punished for losing on the road. The next time we miss the NCAA Tournament I hope it's because we lost 3 tough non-conference road games!
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07-24-2015, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
The fact that some people want to play another road game against LaSalle (that's the kind of team you are begging for!) is mind boggling. We have a very veteran team this year. They don't need to learn how to win on the road, they already know how.
Losing a road game to teams like that gives the committee the reason to leave us out. Not playing that land mind game may make them think but it won't keep us out. The risk/reward just isn't there.
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Do they know how? When they go 6-3, 7-2, 8-1 on the road in conference, then I'll believe they know how.
Not having road games against teams like that gives the committee the reason to leave us out. And I'm not advocating for a game vs. an RPI-103 team. I'm advocating for a game against a likely top-75 team. I know forecasting who will be that good from year to year is tricky, but then again that's one of many reasons I don't work in the AD's office.
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07-24-2015, 03:14 PM
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All this aside, the committee last year was clearly smoking crack with the seeding, so who even knows what this year's criteria will be.
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07-24-2015, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Last year, UD had only the 7th best SOS in the A10. I don't like that. We can do better than that.
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Non-Con SOS was #5 in the league, which for the most part is the only part of the schedule you can control. SLU was in our pod and tanked with the loss of their entire starting lineup. More bad luck than anything. For UD having lost, Kavs, DMo, Vee, Price etc from the prior season, I think the non-con SOS was about where it should have been. No sense in having a killer non-con if you simply don't have the horses. There has to be a chance of success. Lets not forget that a lot of folks thought UD would have a "rebuilding year" last year. The fact that we didn't and have quickly forgotten those naysayers is a testament to just how well we did and how our expectations have changed so quickly.
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07-24-2015, 03:49 PM
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It is what it is now, so I guess no use crying over spilled milk. Thanks for the civil debate without resorting to name calling. I appreciate it.
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07-24-2015, 03:50 PM
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To add to what Chris said, a thought that has been echoing in my head, in the past, most would have looked at UD and thought, 1 senior, a transfer, and 5 frosh, clearly a rebuilding year; nice to have moved beyond that, nobody is saying "rebuilding year" despite having a good amount of youth on the squad (but also having the top half the roster with postseason, winning experience, which is what UD lacked in the past)
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07-24-2015, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Yeah, I just fundamentally disagree with this.
The selection committee rewards you for playing road games, even more so if you win.
IMO, there is little to no punishment for losing a tough road game.
IMO, there is great punishment for losing a buy game.
A LaSalle-type team may be the best they can do, but I doubt it. I bet there are decent non p5 teams that will play them home and home.
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The real danger I think is if we're on the bubble, and the selection committee looks at it and says, heck, they didn't really even bother to play true road games, let's make an example out of Dayton. I think that is a real possibility here unfortunately.
Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
Last year Texas lost a lot of road games in conference to quality teams. Committee did not sting them for that.
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But those are conference games, not out of conference games, and there is zero chance the A10 gets the same respect as the Big XII.
Originally Posted by priceg75
Not having road games against teams like that gives the committee the reason to leave us out. And I'm not advocating for a game vs. an RPI-103 team. I'm advocating for a game against a likely top-75 team. I know forecasting who will be that good from year to year is tricky, but then again that's one of many reasons I don't work in the AD's office.
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Exactly. Not having road games gives the committee reason to leave us out. It's that simple. While I too would love a H/H game against a top 75 team, sometimes you have to accept less than what you deserve. Because you just can't risk giving the committee reason to leave you out!
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07-24-2015, 04:15 PM
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I see Wright State is playing @UK, @X, Home v Georgia St, Home v Murray State, @Miami
Both Georgia St and Murray State had great records last year. Both lost best player to NBA draft but overall, solid non-conference for WSU.
All I want is a top 10 team (ex. when Pitt was #5) to come to UD arena for a game. That was still the greatest game I have seen at UD arena.
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07-24-2015, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerNation23
I see Wright State is playing @UK, @X, Home v Georgia St, Home v Murray State, @Miami
Both Georgia St and Murray State had great records last year. Both lost best player to NBA draft but overall, solid non-conference for WSU.
All I want is a top 10 team (ex. when Pitt was #5) to come to UD arena for a game. That was still the greatest game I have seen at UD arena.
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Pitt was actually #6 in the AP in 2007 when Dayton trounced them. But the last time UD faced an opponent in the top 10 at UD arena was actually in conference play the following year against #10 X. Dayton lost though so you're much better off just remembering that Pitt game.
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07-24-2015, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
You are wrong. This is the first time in recent memory that we are only going to have one true OOC road game... usually we have 2 or 3 in addition to a neutral-site tournament.
This is not the same situation. It seems like they have made a conscious choice to only have one true road game this year. For a team like us that is constantly on the knife's edge of getting in or not, we don't need to give the committee more reasons to keep us out. One true road game OOC is another bullet in the chamber.
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This was before the A-10 added more conference games to the schedule which meant less OOC games.
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07-24-2015, 05:17 PM
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No we didn't last year--we finished 2nd.
Originally Posted by priceg75
We did that last year. We had exactly one loss that I would term as "bad"... at Duquesne. And nearly got left out. We finished 2nd in the A10.
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My bad. I thought "win the whole thing" was clear enough. We are good enough to finish 1st in the Tournament, not 2nd. Our realistic goal should be to win the A10 Tournament. All the rest of this debate is assuming we are leaving our fate to the RPI/SOS gods. Shouldn't have to put our future in the hands of a Selection Committee where the A10 is not represented, and the selection criteria changes more often than Kim Kardashian.
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07-24-2015, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
The real danger I think is if we're on the bubble, and the selection committee looks at it and says, heck, they didn't really even bother to play true road games, let's make an example out of Dayton. I think that is a real possibility here unfortunately.
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And then they look at the other bubble teams and say the same thing about them. So, we play 10 true road games, how does that compare to the rest of the tournament teams?
Last year:
10-Kentucky, Maryland, Iowa State, Louisville, West Virginia, NC State, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa, St. Johns, Purdue
9-Notre Dame, Georgetown, Oregon, Indiana
Most of the other teams played 11 true road games, like we did.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/nitty-clear
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07-24-2015, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
And then they look at the other bubble teams and say the same thing about them. So, we play 10 true road games, how does that compare to the rest of the tournament teams?
Last year:
10-Kentucky, Maryland, Iowa State, Louisville, West Virginia, NC State, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa, St. Johns, Purdue
9-Notre Dame, Georgetown, Oregon, Indiana
Most of the other teams played 11 true road games, like we did.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/nitty-clear
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Power 5 teams get a lot better road games in conference. For Dayton the only good team we play on the road in league is Rhode Island.
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07-24-2015, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
And then they look at the other bubble teams and say the same thing about them. So, we play 10 true road games, how does that compare to the rest of the tournament teams?
Last year:
10-Kentucky, Maryland, Iowa State, Louisville, West Virginia, NC State, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa, St. Johns, Purdue
9-Notre Dame, Georgetown, Oregon, Indiana
Most of the other teams played 11 true road games, like we did.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/nitty-clear
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Yeah, but none of those teams play in the A 10. The Purdues and NC States are playing road games @ Duke, @ Virginia, @ Michigan State, @ Wisconsin. tOSU doesn't have to worry about playing a tough non-con because they have plenty of opportunities from January to March. The non-con portion of the schedule is almost like an afterthought to teams like tOSU and Louisville.
I know people like to say "just get it done in conference play and don't worry about the non-con"--and I agree that would be optimal--but in reality, most teams have hiccups in conference play and it is not easy to win a conference or a conference tournament no matter what league you play in. Thus, when the A 10 has a down year like last season, the non-con suddenly becomes of heightened importance to the likes of UD.
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07-24-2015, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Power 5 teams get a lot better road games in conference. For Dayton the only good team we play on the road in league is Rhode Island.
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Right, but we got people proposing playing a MAC school on the road as if the number of true road games is what really matters.
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07-24-2015, 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
Right, but we got people proposing playing a MAC school on the road as if the number of true road games is what really matters.
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Have you actually never heard the Committee Chairman say how important it is for teams to go out and be tested on the road during the non-con??? (Of course, that doesn't apply to Power5 teams.)
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07-24-2015, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross
Right, but we got people proposing playing a MAC school on the road as if the number of true road games is what really matters.
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You know what would make me feel better? A recent example of a team in a non P5 conference who only played one true road game in the non conference that made the tourney. Maybe there are several. Give them to me and I'll back off my suggestion of playing a lesser conference's probable champion.
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07-24-2015, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
You know what would make me feel better? A recent example of a team in a non P5 conference who only played one true road game in the non conference that made the tourney. Maybe there are several. Give them to me and I'll back off my suggestion of playing a lesser conference's probable champion.
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SLU in 2013 is an example. 1 OOC away game (lost @ Washington), 2 neutral games in Kansas City. Won the A-10 tournament, but they would have been a lock for an at-large bid (considering they were a #4 seed).
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07-24-2015, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
You know what would make me feel better? A recent example of a team in a non P5 conference who only played one true road game in the non conference that made the tourney. Maybe there are several. Give them to me and I'll back off my suggestion of playing a lesser conference's probable champion.
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UConn 2 years ago, but I am guessing you won't count them even though they were in the American. San Diego State 2 seasons ago only played at San Diego. Last year Georgetown did not play a single road OOC road game. Marquette only played 1 road OOC game last year. That is 4 examples of non P5 schools.
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07-24-2015, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Iguomaniac
SLU in 2013 is an example. 1 OOC away game (lost @ Washington), 2 neutral games in Kansas City. Won the A-10 tournament, but they would have been a lock for an at-large bid (considering they were a #4 seed).
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Thanks. Feel a little better. I don’t suppose there is an example of a non-P5 conf bubble team who made it in with a single OOC true road game?
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07-24-2015, 10:52 PM
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I apologize for the excessive complaining that I've done in this thread.
Thought this would be informative:
UD SOS rank in the A10:
2015-7th best SOS
2014-6th best SOS
2013-14th best SOS
2012-6th best SOS
2011-4th best SOS
2010-best SOS in the A10
2009-6th best SOS in the A10
2008-best SOS in the A10
2007-best SOS in the A10
2006-6th best SOS
2005-10th best SOS
2004-11th best SOS
Average UD SOS rank in the A10: 6th
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07-24-2015, 11:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
UD SOS rank in the A10:
Average UD SOS rank in the A10: 6th
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Is this total SOS or non-con SOS? The non-con SOS is all we can control.
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07-24-2015, 11:21 PM
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I know every season stands completely on its own and yet I wonder if winning games in consecutive Tournaments makes us a little prettier when the dreaded Eye Test is being administered.
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07-25-2015, 06:09 AM
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Seems to me that we continue to recycle old match-ups with the same teams outside the home buy games (Vandy, Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss). Would be nice to strike some new series or rekindle ones from the distant past.
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07-25-2015, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
Is this total SOS or non-con SOS? The non-con SOS is all we can control.
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That is total SOS, I can't find any site that has tracked NCSOS over a longer period of time, www.cbssports.com may have a few years of data.
Also, www.collegerpi.com appears to be a defunct site, that site had rpi and SOS data going back to the early 1990's. That site says that its account has been suspended, I hope maybe they are taking an offseason break and will be back when the season starts up.
How much does your A10 pod impact the SOS?
I'd also be interested in seeing the SOS's of Temple, Xavier, and VCU through the years. Those three IMO have been/are more sort of our A10 peers, that IMO, whose performance we should be trying to match.
Last edited by ud2; 07-25-2015 at 12:04 PM..
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07-25-2015, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Bucketnight
I know every season stands completely on its own and yet I wonder if winning games in consecutive Tournaments makes us a little prettier when the dreaded Eye Test is being administered.
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If we were in a P5 conference, sure it would help get us in the NCAA Tournament.
You've got to remember, the Eye Test's purpose is to get P5 schools in, not the other way round.
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07-25-2015, 06:26 PM
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I only looked at 2014-2015, but I am pretty sure that my above post is almost correct, I do not think that the A10 pods are going to really materially alter UD's NCSOS rank as compared to the other A10 clubs.
UD was 7th above in the overall A10 SOS rankings, and that 7th place almost matches the below 6th place in the A10 NCSOS rankings.
UD just simply has to do better than 6th place in the A10 for NCSOS. Being #139 nationally in NCSOS just isn't going to cut it.
My beef is that UD won't play 15 neutral or road games. If they would go to 15, I'd shut up.
Last year, UD had the 139th best non-conference SOS in the nation.
2014-2015-139, 6th best A10
VCU had the best NCSOS in the entire country.
A10 NCSOS, 2014-2015:
VCU 1
UMass 5
George Mason 31
Richmond 32
LaSalle 43
Dayton 139
Fordham 168
SJU 169
URI 215
Davidson 235
SLU 260
Duquesne 271
GW 289
SBU 300
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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07-26-2015, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I only looked at 2014-2015, but I am pretty sure that my above post is almost correct, I do not think that the A10 pods are going to really materially alter UD's NCSOS rank as compared to the other A10 clubs.
UD was 7th above in the overall A10 SOS rankings, and that 7th place almost matches the below 6th place in the A10 NCSOS rankings.
UD just simply has to do better than 6th place in the A10 for NCSOS. Being #139 nationally in NCSOS just isn't going to cut it.
My beef is that UD won't play 15 neutral or road games. If they would go to 15, I'd shut up.
Last year, UD had the 139th best non-conference SOS in the nation.
2014-2015-139, 6th best A10
VCU had the best NCSOS in the entire country.
A10 NCSOS, 2014-2015:
VCU 1
UMass 5
George Mason 31
Richmond 32
LaSalle 43
Dayton 139
Fordham 168
SJU 169
URI 215
Davidson 235
SLU 260
Duquesne 271
GW 289
SBU 300
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Last years non-con SOS wasn't as great as you would've wanted because the Puerto Rico Tip Off had a bunch of average teams. I've said this once, I'll say it again in regards to last year: We played the defending national champs in Uconn. At the time they were a top 20 team. Who would've thought that'd be a bad game? Sometimes the cards don't fall your way. On paper before the season started, knowing we had a chance to play UCONN, that's a great game. Just like this year, where we have a chance to play top 15 ND. But who knows if ND will be top 15 when its all said and done.
Also, you mentioned being 139 isn't going to cut it. Guess what, it did cut it. We made the dance last year. Remember?
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07-26-2015, 12:11 PM
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I think with the team the next two years the Flyers have moved beyond making the Dance. It's about positioning for a higher seed
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07-26-2015, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by 224
Last years non-con SOS wasn't as great as you would've wanted because the Puerto Rico Tip Off had a bunch of average teams. I've said this once, I'll say it again in regards to last year: We played the defending national champs in Uconn. At the time they were a top 20 team. Who would've thought that'd be a bad game? Sometimes the cards don't fall your way. On paper before the season started, knowing we had a chance to play UCONN, that's a great game. Just like this year, where we have a chance to play top 15 ND. But who knows if ND will be top 15 when its all said and done.
Also, you mentioned being 139 isn't going to cut it. Guess what, it did cut it. We made the dance last year. Remember?
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UConn was not that bad of a game. They finished at #77 in the rpi.
True, UD did make the NCAA tournament, I can't deny that. I just think we are better than this. Absent a last second tip in vs. TAMU, we might have been in the NIT.
UD almost annually has a razor thin margin for error. Injuries, a bad call by the refs, etc. all could have led to the NIT.
And it wasn't just last year, over the last 12 years, UD's NCSOS is averaging about 6th best in the A10, I think UD's NCSOS should be in the top 3 or so every year.
There is no reason for UD to not be in the top 3 of the A10 NCSOS rankings every year. You can't use the excuse of good teams being unwilling to schedule you when other A10 teams are able to schedule those good teams.
UD won't agree to losing the revenue from an additional home game. That's what this all boils down to. UD is placing earning revenue above ensuring the good welfare of the program.
Greed is winning out over NCAA tournament appearances, which if you really think about it, is bad logic. You would make more money by appearing in the NCAA tournament more often vs. having that one additional home game.
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07-26-2015, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
UD won't agree to losing the revenue from an additional home game. That's what this all boils down to. UD is placing earning revenue above ensuring the good welfare of the program.
Greed is winning out over NCAA tournament appearances, which if you really think about it, is bad logic. You would make more money by appearing in the NCAA tournament more often vs. having that one additional home game.
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These two paragraphs are complete BS. Our non-conference schedules historically have been fine. In the past it has been our conference record that kept us out of the NCAA. Sixteen home games and 14 road/neutral games is not as bad as you keep saying. It is actually a very good mix. This year it is 17/13 because they couldn't get another road game. If you were a member of Pride+ you would know how hard they tried to get another road game. Name me one year when their non-conference schedule kept them out of the NCAA.
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07-26-2015, 03:22 PM
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Chris R's updates on scheduling have me convinced that UD is all about getting great non-con games on the schedule that give us the maximum chance to get into the NCAA tournament. There are an awful lot of things that have to go right in order to get an agreed upon date, location, etc that both teams see as a benefit for their own interests. I think our stock and negotiating power are on the rise though. We string together a few more NCAA tournament seasons, and who can deny that we are deserving of increased scheduling clout?
The only thing I am disappointed in this year is that the A10 did not give us a better schedule (playing top teams twice). We have limited control over that. But the A10 should recognize that we are quickly becoming a team that brings the league national respect, and cater more to scheduling practices that will maximize our national visibility with high SOS opponents.
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07-26-2015, 04:21 PM
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If they tried and exhausted every avenue in terms of scheduling than that's all we can really ask. Not finding a Power Five team I understand, I assume most of the Big East probably won't play us and a Gonzaga/Wichita St can get probably better opportunities. The CAA and MVC imploded in terms of being leagues where we could find quality opponents from expansion and other factors (see our old series with Old Dominion/George Mason/Creighton). The A10 and Big East swallowed up what could have been some good non Power 5 opponents. It seems like the quality opponents outside the power five have gotten packed into fewer leagues.
I just find it hard to believe that they couldn't find one opponent out of the Mountain West, American, WCC or even a Harvard who's been a consistent program in terms of winning their league and making the tourney
UD's OOC in the past for me at least doesn't have much relevancy. Where the program is today and where is going forward I would hope is a different level and situation in terms of scheduling. I think the mindset is no longer just to get into the tourney but to position ourselves to get a good seed
I agree with Fudd on the A10 really sold themselves short because a 2nd Dayton-VCU game is gonna be more desirable to ESPN, etc than say VCU-St. Louis (VCU plays twice) or Dayton LaSalle. Dayton playing VCU twice is a win win for all parties involved and probably for St Louis too since it's in rebuilding mode
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07-27-2015, 06:55 AM
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When was the last time we played on a neutral court and didn't completely take that over as fans to resemble a home team ?
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07-27-2015, 07:44 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
These two paragraphs are complete BS. Our non-conference schedules historically have been fine. In the past it has been our conference record that kept us out of the NCAA. Sixteen home games and 14 road/neutral games is not as bad as you keep saying. It is actually a very good mix. This year it is 17/13 because they couldn't get another road game. If you were a member of Pride+ you would know how hard they tried to get another road game. Name me one year when their non-conference schedule kept them out of the NCAA.
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I don't know if it is complete bs, but I'll agree that I don't have anything concrete to back up my accusation. It is only my opinion that greed is a factor.
They are never going to be able to get the SOS to 60 or under consistently unless they go to 15 neutral/road games. It is not possible to significantly improve the SOS without going to 15 road/neutral games.
The only way to improve the SOS under the current model is to play tougher home and home series and tougher buy games. The buy games are always a crap shoot, I have no real big problem there with what UD does, and the better p5 teams won't play UD in home and home series.
There has never been a season, to my knowledge, where they just missed making the NCAA tournament due to a weak SOS, that set of circumstances has never happened, but they were extremely close last year.
I am 100% not buying that they can't find decent teams that will play them home and home. Look at UMass last year, they actually played 16 road/neutral games last year. If UMass can find at least 6 road/neutral opponents, then UD should easily be able to do it:
UMass-4 road: at Harvard, at LSU, at Providence, at BYU
3 neutral: Boston College, Notre Dame, and Florida State
9 league road games
16 road/neutral games total
And every year VCU plays at least 15 road/neutral games, but I'll leave them out of this since they are such a strong program.
LaSalle played 16 road/neutral games last year, and George Mason played 15 road/neutral games last year.
VCU, UMass, LaSalle, and George Mason all had a better SOS than UD last year.
I just think that UD is holding the program back by not going to 15 road/neutral games.
Last edited by ud2; 07-27-2015 at 08:05 AM..
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07-27-2015, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I don't know if it is complete bs, but I'll agree that I don't have anything concrete to back up my accusation. It is only my opinion that greed is a factor.
They are never going to be able to get the SOS to 60 or under consistently unless they go to 15 neutral/road games. It is not possible to significantly improve the SOS without going to 15 road/neutral games.
The only way to improve the SOS under the current model is to play tougher home and home series and tougher buy games. The buy games are always a crap shoot, I have no real big problem there with what UD does, and the better p5 teams won't play UD in home and home series.
There has never been a season, to my knowledge, where they just missed making the NCAA tournament due to a weak SOS, that set of circumstances has never happened, but they were extremely close last year.
I am 100% not buying that they can't find decent teams that will play them home and home. Look at UMass last year, they actually played 16 road/neutral games last year. If UMass can find at least 6 road/neutral opponents, then UD should easily be able to do it:
UMass-4 road: at Harvard, at LSU, at Providence, at BYU
3 neutral: Boston College, Notre Dame, and Florida State
9 league road games
16 road/neutral games total
And every year VCU plays at least 15 road/neutral games, but I'll leave them out of this since they are such a strong program.
LaSalle played 16 road/neutral games last year, and George Mason played 15 road/neutral games last year.
VCU, UMass, LaSalle, and George Mason all had a better SOS than UD last year.
I just think that UD is holding the program back by not going to 15 road/neutral games.
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What tournament did La Salle, UMass and George Mason play in last year? Because with their better SOS I am sure they were all NCAA Tourney right?
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07-27-2015, 09:23 AM
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The only tried and true way to improve ou SOS is to have the league improve. So A10 needs to improve or we need to find our way into a top to bottom stronger conference. Our current OC schedule would be fine in a better league.
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07-27-2015, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Greed is winning out over NCAA tournament appearances, which if you really think about it, is bad logic. You would make more money by appearing in the NCAA tournament more often vs. having that one additional home game.
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Originally Posted by ud2
There has never been a season, to my knowledge, where they just missed making the NCAA tournament due to a weak SOS, that set of circumstances has never happened, but they were extremely close last year.
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So which is it?
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07-27-2015, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I just think that UD is holding the program back by not going to 15 road/neutral games.
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There is no road/neutral/home game component to the SOS computation.
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07-27-2015, 11:09 AM
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This thread turned into way too much drama. I just want to know who the **** TBD team is.
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07-27-2015, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by ud69
There is no road/neutral/home game component to the SOS computation.
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RPI there is
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07-27-2015, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
When was the last time we played on a neutral court and didn't completely take that over as fans to resemble a home team ?
Posted via Mobile Device
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UD vs Louisville in Cincinnati was pretty even with fan attendance, but we still kicked their asses.
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07-27-2015, 12:02 PM
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This thread is getting old. These are the cards we got dealt.
It's a schedule based on a similar formula to the last 2 years when we got at large bids. For those that want a tougher schedule, you can hope we play @Duke, @Syracuse and home to Arizona next year, but book your NIT tickets now.
I on the other hand will travel to the preseason tournament in Cali, watch some great games out there, cheer the Flyers on at home against Vandy and stick with the formula that works.
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07-27-2015, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
UD just simply has to do better than 6th place in the A10 for NCSOS. Being #139 nationally in NCSOS just isn't going to cut it.
My beef is that UD won't play 15 neutral or road games. If they would go to 15, I'd shut up.
Last year, UD had the 139th best non-conference SOS in the nation.
2014-2015-139, 6th best A10
VCU had the best NCSOS in the entire country.
A10 NCSOS, 2014-2015:
VCU 1
UMass 5
George Mason 31
Richmond 32
LaSalle 43
Dayton 139
Fordham 168
SJU 169
URI 215
Davidson 235
SLU 260
Duquesne 271
GW 289
SBU 300
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Putting it terms Non-Conf RPI:
VCU 15 (NCAA)
Dayton 32 (NCAA)
Davidson 35 (NCAA)
Richmond 56 (NIT)
URI 66 (NIT)
UMass 81
GW 84 (NIT)
LaSalle 101
SBU 121
SJU 178
George Mason 222
Duquesne 223
Fordham 238
SLU 272
NCAA- RPI: 1,2,3 (SOS:1,6,10)
NIT- RPI: 4,5,7 (SOS: 4,9,13)
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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07-27-2015, 12:10 PM
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FYI, UDs SOS last year was #103 not #139. Non-con SOS, which is largely the only part UD controls, was #71. That's 80th percentile.
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07-27-2015, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
These two paragraphs are complete BS. Our non-conference schedules historically have been fine. In the past it has been our conference record that kept us out of the NCAA. Sixteen home games and 14 road/neutral games is not as bad as you keep saying. It is actually a very good mix. This year it is 17/13 because they couldn't get another road game. If you were a member of Pride+ you would know how hard they tried to get another road game. Name me one year when their non-conference schedule kept them out of the NCAA.
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Just playing devils advocate but pretty sure when we won the NIT in 2009-10 we had an rpi of 32....so the SOS absolutely kept us out. Along with a 8-8 conference record.
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07-27-2015, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by sw368407
Just playing devils advocate but pretty sure when we won the NIT in 2009-10 we had an rpi of 32....so the SOS absolutely kept us out. Along with a 8-8 conference record.
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8-8 conference record probably was more important both in our overall SOS and final conference standings. saying that the OOC SOS was the cause of our being excluded from the Dance is a stretch. We do well in the conference we dance, don't do well and we sit. Losing to the Dukes and Explorers late last year did not help our cause, yet we did have our dancing shoes on.
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07-27-2015, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
What tournament did La Salle, UMass and George Mason play in last year? Because with their better SOS I am sure they were all NCAA Tourney right?
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What about VCU? They got a 7 seed, and that was without Briante Weber, who almost set the NCAA record for most steals in a career.
Originally Posted by TMPH66
The only tried and true way to improve ou SOS is to have the league improve. So A10 needs to improve or we need to find our way into a top to bottom stronger conference. Our current OC schedule would be fine in a better league.
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No, if they went to 15 road/neutral games, the SOS would improve. You can't change leagues, you can change the OOC schedule.
Originally Posted by longtimefan
So which is it?
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Fair enough, but are you comfortable with being in the First Four even though you have a solid rpi of 33?
Originally Posted by ud69
There is no road/neutral/home game component to the SOS computation.
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That's not what this is about, the only way to get better games on the schedule is to agree to more home and home series, which involves playing more road games and fewer buy games.
Originally Posted by 224
It's a schedule based on a similar formula to the last 2 years when we got at large bids. For those that want a tougher schedule, you can hope we play @Duke, @Syracuse and home to Arizona next year, but book your NIT tickets now.*
I on the other hand will travel to the preseason tournament in Cali, watch some great games out there, cheer the Flyers on at home against Vandy and stick with the formula that works.
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I'm not advocating playing Duke, I am advocating playing more Alabama/Boise State type teams in home and home series.
That winning formula landed UD in the First Four even though their rpi was a solid 33.
Originally Posted by Chris R
FYI, UDs SOS last year was #103 not #139. Non-con SOS, which is largely the only part UD controls, was #71. That's 80th percentile.
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Disagree, CBS has the NCSOS as 139 and the overall SOS as 93.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...acketology/sos
Originally Posted by sw368407
Just playing devils advocate but pretty sure when we won the NIT in 2009-10 we had an rpi of 32....so the SOS absolutely kept us out. Along with a 8-8 conference record.
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No, the SOS was 33 that year, the 8-8 A10 record hurt them.
Finally, why are you guys so opposed to playing a tougher schedule? That makes no sense at all to me. Who is happy with playing the 139th NCSOS? Not me.
Last edited by ud2; 07-27-2015 at 12:55 PM..
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07-27-2015, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by sw368407
Just playing devils advocate but pretty sure when we won the NIT in 2009-10 we had an rpi of 32....so the SOS absolutely kept us out. Along with a 8-8 conference record.
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The OOC schedule that year put us in the mix. The collapse in conf play kept us out
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07-27-2015, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by 224
I on the other hand will travel to the preseason tournament in Cali, watch some great games out there, cheer the Flyers on at home against Vandy and stick with the formula that works.
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You'll have to watch the preseason tournament games on ESPN out in Cali because the team and everyone else will be down in Florida. You'll also have UD Arena all to yourself during the Vandy game because it will be played in Nashville.
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07-27-2015, 01:34 PM
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A closer look at his post would show that he is talking about next year not this year. Devil is in the details
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07-27-2015, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
What about VCU? They got a 7 seed, and that was without Briante Weber, who almost set the NCAA record for most steals in a career.
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Yes, VCU made the tourney, but with your argument, only 25% of the teams you listed that had a better SOS made the NCAA Tournament. 75% of them did not make ANY tournament. That is not a strong argument. Also, Weber got hurt in an A10 game. So they were finished with their OOC.
As for wanting UD to play a tougher OOC. I have no problem with them playing a more difficult OOC. I just know how hard it is to schedule OOC games. I know what the coaches go through trying to put a schedule together and how easy it is for things to fall apart. Also, our OOC is not what has hurt us in the past. It has been how we played in the A10. The A10 has been a good league, but no 8-8 team in the A-10 is going to get the benefit of the doubt nor should they.
Last edited by m21eagle45; 07-27-2015 at 01:53 PM..
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07-27-2015, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
Yes, VCU made the tourney, but with your argument, only 25% of the teams you listed that had a better SOS made the NCAA Tournament. 75% of them did not make ANY tournament. That is not a strong argument. Also, Weber got hurt in an A10 game. So they were finished with their OOC.
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Yeah, ok, fair enough, but let's branch this out, and look at 2013-2014.
http://realtimerpi.com/2013-2014/rpi_atl10_Men.html
You had 9 teams with sos's ranging from 27 to 77, 6 out of those 9 got a bid to the NCAA tournament.
2014-2015 was not necessarily representative of the importance of a good SOS.
My point was that VCU still got a 7 seed even with one of their best players out for the year, typically your seed is hurt by an injury like that.
VCU and UD had nearly identical both OOC and A10 records last year.
VCU 26-9, 16-6
UD 25-8, 15-6
Last edited by ud2; 07-27-2015 at 01:59 PM..
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07-27-2015, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
When was the last time we played on a neutral court and didn't completely take that over as fans to resemble a home team ?
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The A-10 Championship Game
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07-27-2015, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
FYI, UDs SOS last year was #103 not #139. Non-con SOS, which is largely the only part UD controls, was #71. That's 80th percentile.
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Which would put 70 teams ahead of us in a tournament of 68. Right on the bubble.
But, I've never been a big advocate of the school of thought that says UD needs to go on the road and play anyone, anywhere, anytime. It has never been and likely never will be the OOC that keeps us out of the tournament.
-> If we win 14 conference games we'll be in every time.
-> At 12-13 conference wins we're highly likely to be in with a couple of decent pre-conference wins.
-> At 10-11 wins, we need to basically blow the doors off the pre-conference schedule with really big wins.
-> If we win only 9 games, it makes no difference what our OOC was.
What this tells me is this: the weighted average (expected) outcome tells me to schedule in a way that gradually makes your team better up to conference play. Get some practice games and a couple tougher tests but don't beat your team down with a meat grinder. Then beat Duquesne, LaSalle, Fordham, St. Louis, etc.
Go into conference play as the master of your own destiny instead of thinking "we're 6-6 and lost at Michigan State, at Louisville, at Duke, at Stanford, and at Kansas. We have only 1 chance and that's to light up the A10." Too much pressure.
Peak in March not in December.
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07-27-2015, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by sw368407
Just playing devils advocate but pretty sure when we won the NIT in 2009-10 we had an rpi of 32....so the SOS absolutely kept us out. Along with a 8-8 conference record.
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Our RPI in 09-10 was 54 (per Jerry Palm). The SOS was 33 so it absolutely was not the SOS that kept us out of the NCAA. It was the 8-8 conference record that kept us out. In 07-08 our RPI was 32 and the SOS was again a very good 33. Again it was the 8-8 conference record that kept us out of the NCAA, not the SOS. In 08-09 when we made the tourney our RPI was 27 and the SOS only 95, but our 11-5 conference record and second place finish got us in. In 03-04 our RPI was 40 and the SOS only 84, but again our good conference showing of a 12-4 record (and first place in our Division) helped get us in. The SOS has never been the problem.
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07-27-2015, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
A closer look at his post would show that he is talking about next year not this year. Devil is in the details
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As if this thread could not get more confusing, now I'm really confused.
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07-27-2015, 02:34 PM
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Last year Temple had an overall RPI of 34, overall SOS of 60 and a non-conference SOS of 40. Temple did not get in. Don't pay attention to any one metric and even then, unless you are one of the blue bloods, you still can get hosed.
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07-27-2015, 02:56 PM
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