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Should He Stay or Should He Go?
Should He Stay or Should He Go?
Jim Meadows
Published by Swampy Meadows
01-29-2010
Should He Stay or Should He Go?

BEVERLY HILLS (MI) -- This column was being saved for the end of the season, but at that point it might be too late. UD is two-thirds of the way thru the 2010 campaign. As we all know, Chris Wright has a big decision to make when it’s over, but he’s no doubt already started thinking about it. And so Chris, here is some food for thought before, as Yogi Berra once observed, “You come to the fork in the road and take it.”

The arguments for and against are many. As a matter of fact, you should probably try that old decision-making exercise and get out a piece of paper and draw a line down the middle. On the left, write “For” and on the right, “Against.”

Then list your reasons.

Here are some financial considerations for you to, well, consider:

-- The shifting sands of NBA Draft regulations. The NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, changed the rules in the middle of the game yet again this year. Before, early entry college players didn’t have to make a firm decision until mid-June. Now you have to irrevocably declare for the draft by May 8th, which is well before the Portsmouth, Orlando and Chicago pre-draft sessions. This move is not in your favor. What this means is that you will only have what teams tell you to base your decision upon at that point…and they will not have seen you in any of the pre-draft camps. Unless some NBA GM promises you “we’re going to pick you in the 1st round and I’ll sign a sworn statement in front of you, your mom and your uncle to that effect” don’t believe him. The term ‘talk is cheap’ has never had deeper meaning than it does in discussions between athletes and their prospective employers.

-- There are 2 rounds to the NBA Draft, consisting of 30 picks each. Forget the 2nd round. 2nd round money isn’t guaranteed. The draft isn’t all about the money, Chris; it’s about guaranteed money. I always chuckle when I read about some guy signing a 5 year $75 million deal with the NFL. Yeah right. How much of that coin is guaranteed, dude, ‘cause most likely, that’s all of it that you are ever gonna see. Same with the NBA. Without a guarantee, teams can walk away from that piece of paper and the player gets jack.

-- One and Dones. Last year there were 5 One and Dones, including Brandon Jennings who ‘done’ his one year overseas; the draft before there were 12. You know that guys like UK’s John Wall and Demarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors at GT, Xavier Henry at Kansas, maybe even UC’s Lance Stephenson are probably coming out. Every one of them that does is most likely going to take away one more slot in the 1st round, because O&Ds tend to go in the 1st round. All 5 in 2009 were drafted in the 1st round; 11 out of 12 in 2008 were. This is because unless they have been absolutely assured of that fact, the O&D kids don’t come out. The worst part is that you won’t really know how many O&Ds are fully committed to the draft until it is time for you yourself to decide.

-- Early Entries. 21 of the players chosen in 2009 were EEs; 17 of them were drafted in 2008 You are not the only guy thinking of leaving early this year, but again, who knows how many will?

-- Internationals. 13 players from other countries were selected in the 2009 draft, including former BG target Patrick Beverly who played overseas for 2 years; 11 of them were taken in 2008. Herein lies the real wild card to the whole process, because you not only don’t know who they are, you have no idea how many of them have been thoroughly scouted and vetted and are now being lusted after by NBA GMs.

-- Seniors. Oh yeah, can’t forget the 4 year guys, can we? 21 seniors were picked in the 2009 NBA draft. In 2008, there were 20.

-- The fact of the matter is that NBA teams draft according to specific needs; NFL teams tend to select players based upon “the best athlete available” scenario. It’s a shame you don’t play football, because you would be a sure-fire #1 draft pick.

-- You were smart to forego declaring for the draft last year, because you would have been painted into a corner this time around. You only get to test the waters once without penalty, wise move to wait until this year to do your toe dipping.

--This is not a do or don’t deal. If you decide to pass at this time, guess what: the money will still be there next year…and probably more of it.

Non-Financial Reasons:

-- The diploma. I got news for you, Chris: there is life after the NBA, a lot of it. What are you gonna do with it? The average NBA player’s career only lasts 5 years. That’s all. You’re gonna need that sheepskin.

-- Get out a tape of the New Mexico game. Is that the best you’ve got? Wouldn’t you like to be around to crush those Lobos next year when they come to the Arena?

-- You still have one last chance to beat X at their place. ‘Nuf said

-- Juwan Staten. The kid is a player and has said that his dream is to be throwing oops to you next year. You have the ability to let him live it.

-- The rest of the incoming class: Josh Parker, Brandon Spearman, Devin Oliver, Ralph Hill and Jesse Berry. With all of that fresh talent around you, opposing teams won’t be able to cramp your style and focus on just you.
Add in Devin, CJ, Paul, Josh, Matt and you and that’s a nice looking squad, dontcha think?

-- BG

-- The Mid-Range Jumper. We can see that you’ve been working on it, but it ain’t there yet. Until you can drain the MRJ consistently in games, scouts might mistakenly dismiss you as just another tweener SF who can jump out of the gym.

-- Doesn’t it seem like your college career has flashed by in a millisecond? It certainly does for us fans. Are you sure you want to end it now?

-- Your legacy. Stay and you have the chance to write UD history; go and you’ll always be well remembered, just in an incomplete sentence: “Yeah, CW really was a freak athlete, but…”

That’s it. Just one guy’s opinion, Chris. We all hope that whatever decision you make that you believe it is the right one for you and that you are comfortable with it.

Oh yeah and thanks for choosing to come to UD.

That’s it “From the Swamp.”
You can email me at: swampy@udpride.com
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  #1  
By shocka43 on 01-29-2010, 07:59 AM
Good analysis Swampy. I think you hit pretty much every point. I like to lean towards the stay side. For his own development, and for our selfish interestes as fans. I would like to have him around for another year, especially with some guard play coming in.
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  #2  
By MD Flyer Pride on 01-29-2010, 08:07 AM
Excellent article, Swampy! BTW, what is the date when a player can "dip their toe in the water" by declaring for the draft? I am assuming they must make that final decision by May 8 to go to the NBA. Is their a deadline to say they are "considering"?
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  #3  
By SC_Flyer on 01-29-2010, 08:56 AM
As always, thanks for a great post. I look forward to seeing your mug at the top of the homepage with a new story for me.

I can't help but wonder if this downturn in the season may not actually be a good thing. You mentioned that you expedited this post because of it. I have to believe that Chris Wright has a much more difficult decision on his hands because of it too. If we were 18-2 (only 12 points separate us from our current record and a 2 loss one) and ranked in the Top 25 (likely in the Top 10 with just two losses), there would be no discussion at all as CW would be heading to the NBA. However, this downturn gives me hope that we may get to see him in a UD Uni for anther year.

Who wants to make some lemonade?
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  #4  
By Avid Flyer on 01-29-2010, 09:34 AM
I believe the lemonade is already being made. DAyton has not been a good "Hunted" team with a target on their backs. Much better at being the "Hunter" which I now believe is their new status. With my red and blue crystal ball I see them regaining their old status and going out to slay some dragons (or muskateers and owls).
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  #5  
By UACFlyer on 01-29-2010, 10:21 AM
Don't understand...

I simply don't understand why such a discussion is even taking place. CW is not even the best player on his college team....not remotely close to being one of the best players in his conference.....infinitely far removed from being even an honorable mention All American. And we're talking about the NBA.

CW is not close to being an NBA caliber player....I don't think he's even demonstrated the potential to be an NBA player (unless leaping is considered a major asset.) First round vs second round? I don't think there is a chance that CW would be drafted in the second round.

Just opinion....but based on his performance over nearly three years, which surely fans that are honest with themselves will admit has fallen very far short of expectations.

A good kid,....good player....sincerely hope he plays for us next year. But, NBA? You're kidding.
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  #6  
By BACKNDAYTON on 01-29-2010, 03:12 PM
To the confused reader above,

I understand how this may be a confusing conversation for some. There are some reasons of concern about whether or not CW can cut it in the NBA. But whatever opinions exist about CW's inability to play in the NBA, he is already projected as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick for the 2010. Yes, my jaw dropped two but that information is readily availalbe on ESPN and other sports websites.

I think it's not going to be a question of whether or not CW will make it to the NBA. The question is when will he go and how long will he stay.
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  #7  
By AQUDXU on 01-29-2010, 05:29 PM
Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I simply don't understand why such a discussion is even taking place. CW is not even the best player on his college team....not remotely close to being one of the best players in his conference.....infinitely far removed from being even an honorable mention All American. And we're talking about the NBA.

CW is not close to being an NBA caliber player....I don't think he's even demonstrated the potential to be an NBA player (unless leaping is considered a major asset.) First round vs second round? I don't think there is a chance that CW would be drafted in the second round.

Just opinion....but based on his performance over nearly three years, which surely fans that are honest with themselves will admit has fallen very far short of expectations.

A good kid,....good player....sincerely hope he plays for us next year. But, NBA? You're kidding.

Two words:

Hakim Warrick
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  #8  
By hicag on 01-30-2010, 04:45 PM
Originally Posted by AQUDXU View Post
Two words:

Hakim Warrick
And the 3 million he makes a year. Set for life.
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  #9  
By hicag on 01-30-2010, 04:52 PM
Originally Posted by hicag View Post
And the 3 million he makes a year. Set for life.
I guess the question is if he should go. I would never hold it against anyone for going to make that sort of money. If he is not a first rounder, I agree he should stay. Fearing an inur&# (I will not type the word) is no way to go through life. Leaving early can ruin a guy. In football terms, ask Clarett and Mike Willaims. They do not have the over seas that basketball has, but the dream will most likely not happen.

Thanks Swampy for the new rule about declaring. I did not know that, and it makes a HUGE differance in the early exit process.
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  #10  
By AQUDXU on 01-30-2010, 05:47 PM
Originally Posted by hicag View Post
And the 3 million he makes a year. Set for life.
My point exactly. CW is very similar right now to what Warrick was when he came out.
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  #11  
By UACFlyer on 01-30-2010, 06:59 PM
Set for life...

There is no doubt that a guy that plays pro ball will earn millions. But, a kid can be "set for life" with a lot less than millions.

The average American worker will earn less than $3 million over a lifetime. I presume it's possible for a college player to buy an insurance policy that protects him if he sustains an injury that prevents him from playing professionally.

So, if a kid or someone on his behalf (allowed by the NCAA) were to buy a one year policy with a $2 million pay out, let's say, leaving college with a degree and $2 million in cash, that wouldn't sound too bad to most people.

It wouldn't be the millions the NBA offers; but a $2-3 million nest egg at age 22 along with a degree ain't bad.

Now who out there knows all about insurance against injury? There are such policies....musicians and other performers have them. Insurance companies have all the data needed re probability of injury in order to determine the one year premium.
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  #12  
By T-Bone 84 on 01-30-2010, 08:12 PM
Excellent analysis, Swampy. CW's coverage of Delroy James in the URI game should be proof that he needs to work on his perimeter defense. And even though he's developing a foul-line jumper, he's far from a "First Round Lock" in June. Makes more sense for him to stay another year and build his resume. Let's hope that's what happens.
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  #13  
By AQUDXU on 01-31-2010, 03:27 PM
Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
There is no doubt that a guy that plays pro ball will earn millions. But, a kid can be "set for life" with a lot less than millions.

The average American worker will earn less than $3 million over a lifetime. I presume it's possible for a college player to buy an insurance policy that protects him if he sustains an injury that prevents him from playing professionally.

So, if a kid or someone on his behalf (allowed by the NCAA) were to buy a one year policy with a $2 million pay out, let's say, leaving college with a degree and $2 million in cash, that wouldn't sound too bad to most people.

It wouldn't be the millions the NBA offers; but a $2-3 million nest egg at age 22 along with a degree ain't bad.

Now who out there knows all about insurance against injury? There are such policies....musicians and other performers have them. Insurance companies have all the data needed re probability of injury in order to determine the one year premium.
The insurance only pays out if he gets injured. If he does not get injured it is no gaurentee that he'll be drafted higher after his SR year than after his JR year, even if he gets better.

See John Wallace, who was a borderline lottery pick after his JR year. Came back for his SR year, took/carried SU to the title game, and fell out of the lottery. Had the Knicks not had 3 1st round picks that year, he probably wouldn't have gone in the 1st round.

Remeber Harold Arcenaux (sp?) from Weber St. Was WAC POY as JR, had 30+ point game in win over UNC, and another monster game in a 2nd round loss. Every scout had him as a lottery pick. He came back for his SR year. Again POY in the WAC, but no noise in March Maddness. He went undrafted and never played in the NBA.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. If you have a chance to go in the 1st round this year, you go. Is he their right now? Don't know. I do know the NBA drafts on potential, and he has plenty of that. Hakim Warrick is doing OK in the league, and CW now looks a lot like HW did coming out of SU then.
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  #14  
By Falcon7 on 02-03-2010, 04:52 PM
Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I simply don't understand why such a discussion is even taking place. CW is not even the best player on his college team....not remotely close to being one of the best players in his conference.....infinitely far removed from being even an honorable mention All American. And we're talking about the NBA.

CW is not close to being an NBA caliber player....I don't think he's even demonstrated the potential to be an NBA player (unless leaping is considered a major asset.) First round vs second round? I don't think there is a chance that CW would be drafted in the second round.

Just opinion....but based on his performance over nearly three years, which surely fans that are honest with themselves will admit has fallen very far short of expectations.

A good kid,....good player....sincerely hope he plays for us next year. But, NBA? You're kidding.
Totally agree!
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  #15  
By MrFlyerFanatic on 02-04-2010, 03:18 PM
Basketball as a job

Although CW hasn't had the blockbuster season that many of us had hoped for, he still has shown improvement. He single handedly kept us in the game at St. Joe. CJ exploded out of the gates as teams have focused on CW. If MJ was having a typical MJ year, he would also be drawing attention of opposing teams. Many people like to say that CJ is the best player on this year's team, and the argument surely can be made, but opposing teams start their game planning with containing CW.
Now consider this:
Surround CW with an entire cast of talented players. That includes a point guard that can shoot and a center that can score. Put him in a position where someone else is the focus.
Give CW a paycheck and tell him that his job is to play basketball. No school work. No limits on time spent working out with coaches. Just become the best basketball player that you can be.
CW has exceptional God given physical ability.
CW has a strong work ethic.
That combination makes for huge professional potential and NBA GMs love to draft potential.
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  #16  
By Ready Action on 02-16-2010, 05:45 PM
Personally I think he will enter and stay in the draft. Why come back for more of the same? His play during the remaining games will play a huge part in his future. The spot light is on this bubble team and if CW leads them to the NCAA tourney...
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