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NCAA Mock Selection Recap: Part IV: Bubbles, Scrubs, and Bracketing
NCAA Mock Selection Recap: Part IV: Bubbles, Scrubs, and Bracketing
Christopher Rieman
Published by Chris R
02-19-2015
Smile NCAA Mock Selection Recap: Part IV: Bubbles, Scrubs, and Bracketing

The Mock Selection participants returned to NCAA Headquarters on Friday, Feb. 13th for an 8:30am continental breakfast. Following the nourishment, attendees picked up where things off the prior evening by focusing attention on an incomplete Bullpen. Just 10 at-large spots remained and 27 teams were still in contention.

BUBBLICIOUS

Dayton, Colorado, UCLA, and Temple were carried over from Thursday. In theory, they were the strongest foursome fighting for those 10 available spots in the Field of 68. The Flyers entered Friday with an RPI of #37 – fairly strong among the remaining hopefuls. After revisiting our notes, re-starting the discussion, and tendering votes, the media pairs migrated four additional teams to replenish the Bullpen:

Bullpen Holdovers: Dayton, Colorado, UCLA, Temple
Bullpen Newbies: Boise State, LSU, Michigan State, Illinois

At this point in the selection process, Dayton became a lightning rod of conversation. Participants in the room knew what was happening: the Flyers were somewhere at the tail end of at-large consideration and the prospect of playing in – or avoiding – the First Four in Dayton prompted several questions in the room.
  • “How should we treat Dayton in terms of at-large consideration? Should we attempt to avoid placing them in the First Four, or are there any special rules preventing us from placing them on their home floor?”
  • “Has the NCAA considered setting up a second site to host the First Four? If not, why not?”
That’s when NCAA Tournament Chairman Dan Gavitt stepped in and provided a 10-minute dissertation that would have made the Dayton Chamber of Commerce and UD trustees proud. First, Gavitt explicitly stated that Dayton should be treated like every other team and placed in the field according to their resume’ and appropriate seed. The Flyers should not receive special consideration to avoid the First Four, or penalized in any way by being demoted to the First Four in order to play an additional game in the tournament.

Gavitt pointed out the NCAA’s reasons for choosing Dayton as the start of the NCAA tournament every year, including its central location, track record of hosting NCAA tournaments, community support and ticket sales, and stability within the NCAA tournament itself as a reassuring destination for participating teams. He went further and said it made sense to continue using a single First Four site despite the potential travel inconvenience of west coast teams because annual debriefings of players and coaches that competed at the First Four were entirely positive on the experience. The overwhelming sentiment of those that competed in Dayton – even teams burdened with lengthy travel considerations -- said the First Four did not feel like a half-baked secondary tournament environment. Rather, it felt like a true NCAA atmosphere like the other host sites in subsequent rounds. The NCAA remains adamant about the First Four feeling like March Madness, and treating those eight teams with the same respect and electricity in the stands is a formula that sets Dayton apart from other places at the moment.

With greater clarity in the room on how to handle Dayton, we ate boxed lunches at our workstations to keep the progress moving along. Another Bullpen vote sent four additional teams to the Field of 68:

Boise State, Colorado State, LSU, Temple

With just six at-large spots remaining in the at-large field, Dayton and UCLA were forced back to the Under Consideration pool because of consecutive misses, leaving just two holdovers in the Bullpen. Another Under Consideration vote moved six teams to the bullpen – with the Flyers and Bruins circling back in.

Bullpen Holdovers: Michigan State, Illinois
Bullpen Newbies: Dayton, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, BYU, St. John’s

Time was getting short as the afternoon continued, so NCAA personnel asked for a final vote of Bullpen teams to complete the at-large field and completely fill the tournament.

Bullpen teams were ranked 1-8 and the Top-6 to make the field in order of votes received were:

Dayton, Illinois, UCLA (FF), Stanford (FF), Michigan State (FF), Oregon (FF)

First Two Out: BYU and St. John’s

The PAC12 sent three teams to the First Four, where all normal bracketing rules are exempt for purposes of seeding the four weakest at-large teams in the field. UCLA was ultimately chosen to play in the Wednesday game vs Michigan State to provide an extra day of rest as the highest seed of the three First Four teams in their conference. Stanford and Oregon were chosen to play on one less day of rest (Tuesday).

The NCAA had yet to provide us with the simulated outcome of the Big10 Conference tournament – a tourney that typically finishes late in the day on Selection Sunday. They finally made the call for us: Wisconsin beating Michigan State for the Big10’s automatic bid. Since Wisconsin was already in the field based on resume’, they didn’t bump Oregon from the field by taking an additional at-large spot. Michigan State was already in the field as well – sneaking in on the last round of voting. The NCAA also chose SMU over UConn for the AAC Tourney title, saving the Ducks – and perhaps also UCLA – from being bumped had both MSU and UConn pulled upsets.

As we mentioned earlier, NCAA personnel previously selected Davidson as the A10 Tournament Champion. According to the simulated bracket, the Wildcats beat Richmond in the Finals. Dayton and VCU were losers in the A10 Semifinals, meaning #1 seed UMass lost their first game of the A10 tournament (Quarterfinals) to the #8 seed. This dramatically hurt their resume’ throughout the two-day process and while the NCAA Committee did their best to inject uncertainty into the conference tournament, the Minutemen were unfairly hurt by the decision. NCAA personnel made it a point to insist that it was no reflection on UMass or their at-large chances, but a random decision pulled out of the hat to mimic the chaos of the at-large process. The same can be said for Rhode Island and George Washington -- teams in the Under Consideration pool that failed to reach the A10 Semis. The luck of the draw effectively eliminated their chances for at-large bids as well. Combined with UMass (#41 RPI), these three teams were rarely discussed and never got within shouting distance of the Bullpen. Therefore, the under-performance of these teams in the MSP should be digested within the proper context.

SCRUBBING

The field now set and initial seed lines in place, the process of scrubbing the tournament list began. The room started at the top and worked their way down, examining each team next to its’ higher and lower neighbor on the overall seed line. If enough scrutiny of seed-line neighbors suggested a re-alignment was necessary, a participant created a motion and asked for a second. With enough raised hands to trigger a vote, the room voted up or down to flip seeds based on their comparable resumes’. By rule, any seed lines that were flipped by a vote required the adjacent seed lines to be further scrutinized for accuracy.

For example, #19 Providence and #20 Northern Iowa received enough votes to flip their seeds. With the seed lines now #19 Northern Iowa and #20 Providence, Northern Iowa required a further interrogation with #18 Butler to ensure proper seeding, while #20 Providence necessitated a comparison to #21 Wichita State.

Other seeds that were ultimately scrubbed, voted on, and adjusted were Ohio State from #22 to #25 and West Virginia from #25 to #27. The Buckeyes dropped because of a weak non-conference schedule and did not get a lot of credit for their ACC/Big10 Challenge match because it’s a mandated game on their schedule. West Virginia was hurt by recent losses as well as a second opinion of the teams surrounding them. Notre Dame did not scrub down any further in spite of their terrible non-conference schedule. Participants felt they were penalized fairly during the first phase of seeding on Thursday evening.

BRACKETING

Once the field was properly scrubbed and seeds 1-68 were locked in, the NCAA’s tricked-out computer software filled out the actual bracket in a matter of minutes. Their mainframe green-lighted bracket lines where teams were allowed to fit, while red-lighting others when computer algorithms flagged incompatibilities. Anticipated by many in the room to be the most complicated part of the NCAA Mock Selection Process, bracketing was actually the easiest and most expedient.



In some cases, humans intervened to make judgment calls. In one case, Coastal Carolina had two available bracket lines – one in Pittsburgh and one in Jacksonville. Both locations were roughly the same distance apart. Participants elected to send Coastal Carolina to Jacksonville because it was an easier drive with less weather (no mountain terrain). As bracketing continued, the software calculated region strength every step of the way to ensure a proper competitive balance. The software was so good, not a single team required a bump above or below their actual seed line in order to make everything fit.

By approximately 3:30pm, the two-day exercise was complete. After so much data-crunching in a span of 24 hours, it was impressive to see the final product come together so quickly once the heavy lifting was completed. We learned far more than we anticipated, have a better understanding of the process, and a greater appreciation for the effort and attention to detail the NCAA demands of their Selection Committee in order to get things right. It’s still a process steered by humans and humans are imperfect creatures with subjective opinions on basketball, box scores, and computer rankings. Perhaps the best take-away from the two days in Indianapolis was a sense of self-reliance. If you’re on the NCAA bubble and attempting to sneak in the back door, no one is more at fault than the team trying to get in. Teams that win enough quality games, avoid bad losses, play a strong non-conference schedule, and generally pass the eye test are going to find their way into the bracket with room to spare. Everyone has an opportunity to make the Selection Committee’s job easy. If you choose to their make job difficult, you’re abdicating control of much of the process.

Wait. There’s one more piece of information gleaned from Indianapolis, and it’s going to change things for every team in college basketball -- instantaneously.

Coming Friday: The final part of the MSP series…
Part V: The Great NCAA Snooker
__________________

Hot shooting hides a multitude of sins.
Make everyone else's "one day" your "day one".
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  #1  
By MrFlyerFanatic on 02-19-2015, 01:59 PM
I love a good cliffhanger!
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  #2  
By BOF02 on 02-19-2015, 04:18 PM
Very interesting process. Can't wait for Friday.
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