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CBB Guessing Game, Part 2
CBB Guessing Game, Part 2
Published by Swampy Meadows
10-12-2022
CBB Guessing Game, Part 2

BEVERLY HILLS (MI) – Welcome to Part 2 of our three part "From the Swamp" compendium of all the college basketball predictions for the 2022-23 season and more specifically, the UD Flyers.

If you happened to miss Part 1, you can find it right here:

http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36096

Let's get back at it!

ESPN

We finished Part 1 with ESPN, so we’ll pick up where we left off, as they have posted some new content. Their latest piece is entitled “Mid-major 2022-23 conference predictions: Who besides Gonzaga can shine?”

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...l-championship

ESPN’s panel of experts had this to say about the Hilltoppers (that’s an old time reference to the Flyers for you youngins):

Make a case for a non-Gonzaga mid-major program you can envision reaching the 2023 Elite Eight, if not going all the way.

Jeff Borzello: San Diego State might have the highest floor of any non-Gonzaga mid-major, but I think Dayton has a higher ceiling than anyone except the Zags. The Flyers have proved they can beat good teams, with wins last season over Kansas and Miami. And DaRon Holmes II has legitimate pro potential. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over his final five games of 2021-22.

Joe Lunardi: The best player on one of a small handful of teams in this category is Holmes. He might not be Obi Toppin, and these Flyers won't be a 1-seed on Selection Sunday the way Toppin's team would have been in 2020, but Dayton is more than good enough for an extended NCAA tourney run. Led by Holmes and the other Malachi Smith at point guard, the Flyers have all starters back from a 24-11 squad that was team No. 69 on the NCAA seed list a year ago. If there is any justice from the lost pandemic season, these Flyers play late into March.

Joey Brackets

ESPN Bracketologist Supreme Joe Lunardi has never subscribed to the theory that it is too early to create a bracket for next March’s NCAA Danceathon. Here is his latest crystal ball, datelined October 4th, with your University of Dayton Flyers as a #5 seed in the East Region and playing their 1st round game in Sacramento. Since when is Sacto in the East?:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ness-men-field

Jon Rothstein

Rothstein recently paid a visit to Dayton, spent time with Coach Grant and the fellas and watched a practice. Here is what he tweeted then:

Dayton's DaRon Holmes II has put on approximately 25 pounds and is now near 230, per the staff. Looks like a completely different player physically.

Dayton may have a potential front court reinforcement in 6-9 redshirt sophomore Richard Amaefule. Could be post insurance --- especially when the Flyers face power conference teams.

R.J. Blakney could be for this Dayton team what Trey Landers was for Dayton during the 2019-20 season. So steady. So consistent. A potential Under-The-Radar Glue Guy to monitor.

Palpable Buzz at Dayton regarding 6-8 freshman Mike Sharavjamts. Could be used in a backup PG role. Excellent "pocket passing" ability.


You would never know he was on campus to see the squad firsthand, as Rothstein somehow has the Flyers at #33 in his Top 45, right behind SLU:

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index....son-edition-2/

33. Dayton
Projected Starting 5:

G Malachi Smith
G Kobe Elvis
G R.J. Blakney
F Toumani Camara
C Daron Holmes
Projected Bench: Mustapha Amzil, Koby Brea, Zimi Nwokeji, Kaleb Washington, Mike Sharavjamts
Key Losses: Moulaye Sissoko, Elijah Weaver
Key Newcomers: Mike Sharavjamts

Rothstein however did include Malachi on his list of “20 under-the-radar breakout players for the 2022-23 season”:

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index....022-23-season/

Malachi Smith, Dayton: The Flyers are expected to be one of the best non power conference teams in college basketball this season. That will only allow Smith’s star to rise nationally. A swiss army knife type of point guard, the 6-foot Smith quietly averaged 9.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals a year ago as a freshman. The more Dayton wins, the more Smith will get the type of ink that he so very well deserves.

BartTorvik.com

Ken Pomeroy has yet to produce his initial rankings, so BartTorvik.com is the next best alternative. The Flyers are #35 in their forecast:

https://barttorvik.com/

Haslametrics

Similar to KenPom and BartTorvik, they have released their 2022-23 ratings and UD is positioned at #26:

https://haslametrics.com/ratings.php

24/7 Sports

These guys take the Lunardi approach of not only guesstimating seeds but placing the Field of 68 into an actual bracket:

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticl.../#192223190_11

The Flyboys find themselves as a #6 seed in the Midwest Region facing off against #11 seed Florida State. Snapshot on UD:

Dayton may not have an Obi Toppin this go-round, but the Flyers were the nation’s youngest team last year and still won 24 games. As those freshmen grow, the sky's the limit.

Sports Illustrated

SI’s most recent Top 25 is dated June 18th. The Red and Blue are listed at #18:

https://www.si.com/college/2022/06/1...s-top-25-reset

Their synopsis:

After a disastrous first two weeks of the season featured three buy-game losses, the Flyers were one of the best mid-major teams in the country despite being incredibly young. From Nov, 22 on, Dayton was the No. 21 team in the country (per T-Rank), a remarkably good ranking particularly considering the Flyers started freshmen at both point guard and center. It’s unfair to heap Obi Toppin comparisons onto DaRon Holmes II, but the young center could have a similar breakout Year 2 to the one Toppin had that lifted Dayton to a top-five ranking in 2019–20. And as if this team didn’t have enough young talent, the Flyers also added intriguing Mongolia native Mike Sharavjamts, a top-100 recruit with point guard skills and NBA length.

SI.com also published this article entitled “Five Men’s Teams That Look Primed to Break Through in College Basketball” that just so happened to include your favorite squad:

https://www.si.com/college/2022/10/0...eighton-dayton

And most recently, SI.com released its Atlantic 10 Men’s Basketball Preseason Rankings: Dayton Has Tantalizing Upside:

https://www.si.com/college/2022/10/1...on-saint-louis

Player of the Year: DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
First-Team All-Conference:

Yuri Collins, Saint Louis
Tyler Burton, Richmond
Javonte Perkins, Saint Louis
Josh Oduro, George Mason
DaRon Holmes II, Dayton

1. Dayton

In a year in which men’s college basketball was the oldest it had been in a long time, Dayton went through 2021–22 with a rotation nearly entirely made up of freshmen and sophomores. After a disastrous start, the Flyers played like a top-25 team most of the way and now will essentially run it back. Sophomores DaRon Holmes II and Malachi Smith seem poised to blossom into household names nationally—Holmes as a two-way interior force and Smith as one of the better young point guards in the sport. This group won’t be as dynamic offensively as the ’19–20 Flyers who were on their way to a No. 1 seed before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the ceiling here is still sky-high.

Postseason Projection: Second Weekend Upside

Three Man Weave

Altho they contributed content to the production of The Almanac, TMV also cranked out their very own Top 40 countdown:

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/...top-40-2022-23

Dayton is #30 and SLU is #39. Of UD they say:

The Dayton Flyers check in at No. 30 on our award-winning Top 40 countdown!

With its top 7 players back from a young team that went 24-11 (14-4) and juuust missed the NCAA Tournament, expectations are sky high...


The Twitter thread providing in-depth analysis of the Flyer roster can be found here:

https://twitter.com/3MW_CBB/status/1...yvjHelO9Qnkdmg

Stay tuned for Part 3 coming soon!

That’s it “From the Swamp.”
You can email me at: swampy@udpride.com
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