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2013 UD Womens Soccer Season Preview
2013 UD Womens Soccer Season Preview
Christopher M Rieman
Published by Chris R
08-20-2013
2013 UD Womens Soccer Season Preview

DAYTON (OH) -- The Flyers were close last season to doing what they do best – making the NCAA tournament. But a penalty-kick shootout defeat to VCU in the A10 Semifinals ended the season. Or did it? Sure, it officially kept them out of the NCAA tournament, but thing aren’t always what they appear.

Dayton hosted Central Michigan and DePaul in back-to-back non-conference games two months prior, gift-wrapping both matches to the opposition with unfinished chances on offense and breakdowns in the defensive third. Check and checkmate. Unlike the ACC or Big10, the cushion in the A10 is less forgiving. UD couldn’t afford to air-mail a couple home matches in late August without expecting the damage to be significant.

To UD’s credit however, they nearly pulled off the improbable. The Flyers went 11-1-1 thereafter. Were it not for the loss in the A10 Semis, one more victory might have secured a bid – even with a loss in the A10 Finals. As it turned out, VCU lost to LaSalle in the championship match and missed out on an at-large bid too (#59 RPI).

We’ll never know if Dayton might have been one of the last teams to make it. Sporting a #48 RPI, the Flyers were probably ‘bubblicious’ and on the selection committee whiteboard. Had UD taken care of biz’ against the Chips and Blue Demons however, the Flyers would have been polishing up their NCAA seeding instead of fighting for their postseason lives.
With the nation’s most potent scoring offense, it wasn’t supposed to end this way. For a program that measures success and failure by NCAA postseason bids, reaching a fourth straight Big Dance was the primary goal – especially to the seniors. Despite coming up short, they graduated UD as one of the most successful senior classes in the nation based on winning percentage, and left the program better than they found it.

Over the last two seasons, Head Coach Mike Tucker had something new to consider: a program where the offense paid the freight and the defense remained a work-in-progress. The A10 record books are littered with UD defensive stars that were equal parts agony and misery to opposing offenses. For over a decade, Dayton forged their reputation on collecting shutouts and knocking timely balls in the net to win matches 1-0 and 2-1. Confronting UD was like going to the dentist for a pair of root canals minus the anesthetic. The graduation of several defensive stars forced new players into the back line over the last two years however. And the emergence of two goal scorers – Colleen Williams and Juliana Libertin – turned UD’s reliably conservative offense into Jim Jabir’s run-n-shoot.

The Flyers could score, but could they stop anyone?

That storyline is what largely played out in 2012 and the results were in: no matter how many goals you score, defense still wins championships. It wasn’t the number of defensive breakdowns that occurred, but the flavor and untimeliness. The miscues were usually catastrophic, leading to soft goals against opponents that rarely developed solid goal-scoring opportunities of their own. Dayton’s opponents didn’t need any help but too often the Flyers were charitable.

To the credit of the defense however, the unit did get better over the course of the season. A lot better. It was part perseverance and hard work, and another part starting from ground zero with nowhere to go but up.

THE DEPARTURES

How do you replace a three-time All-American, record-breaking goal scorer, and one of the only players in NCAA D-I history to fatten up on 50 goals and 50 assists?

You don’t.

Colleen Williams was a program-changer, but her true value to the program had less to do with goals or assists and more to do with her Clubber Lang attitude every time she took the pitch. A halo of invincibility surrounded her, and opponents were constantly intimidated by the junkyard bully who did what she wanted, when she wanted, however she wanted to do it. Williams oozed confidence and felt she belonged on the same pitch as anyone in college soccer. Her chest-thumping spilled over to her teammates. Good players make themselves look good. Great players make everyone around them better. No one did more to share the wealth than the ‘Jersey native.

In the midfield, Alexis Garcia fit the prototypical mold of nearly every UD holding midfielder before her – at least since Tesia Kozlowski. Undersized and a few pounds lighter than most BCS mids, Garcia made up for it with great hustle and an even better feel for the game. The All-Conference performer did the little things and rarely received the credit she deserved – as was the case with her exceptional slide-tackling ability.

Alysha Mallon moonlighted as both an outside midfielder and defender over most of her career, blossoming last season to earn First Team All-Conference honors, racking up two goals and eight assists along the way. If UD had a ‘glue’ player, Mallon was it. Possessed with a great motor and feisty disposition, her experience and talent will be difficult to replace.

GK Katherine Boone also graduates. The former A10 Defensive Player of the Year saw her minutes decrease over the last two seasons by sharing much of the goalkeeping duties with Jordin Melchert.

Dayton lost a couple other players to seasonal attrition, all with minor roles.

THE RETURNEES

The bad news is Dayton lost three All-Conference performers and a senior goalkeeper. The losses were small in number but large in substance. The flip side: UD returns the majority of the roster (including two All-A10 performers) and has plenty of familiar names to rebuild Metropolis. Everyone must raise their level of play however to do what last year’s team could not – reach the postseason.

In the offense, sophomore Ashley Campbell is one of two returning Canadians looking to make the ‘big jump’. The 2012 A10 All-Rookie selection tallied 12 goals and four assists, using her height and long strides to play the role of target forward in the Flyer offense. More of a pure scorer unlike Williams, Campbell was tabbed as a 2013 preseason All-Conference selection. One of the safer bets of the season: she lives up to those expectations.

The safest bet however is senior Juliana Libertin, the only returning player in NCAA D-I soccer to record consecutive 10gl+/10ast+ seasons (2011, 2012). Libertin stretches the field as an outside mid or striker by making long runs up the flanks, crossing balls into the mixer and taking defenders one-on-one with the ball at her feet. She’s the consummate “all-rounder” in terms of skill and ability. Libertin is one of the fittest players to ever suit up on the Hilltop – which should come as no surprise considering her credentials as a former HS state track champion. Her athletic furnace is nuclear, turning the legs of opposing marks into Jell-O after the 75th minute. As soon as they start to crack, she takes advantage.

Can Libertin survive without Colleen Williams however? In spades. There’s a good chance she’ll earn another double-double in 2013. That would make three in a row and put her in serious contention for All-America honors.

Senior Stephanie Emery has spent her career splitting time as a starter and relief player, but chances are 2013 is her season to finally command the midfield. With 10 starts in 20 matches a year ago (3 goals, 4 assists), she provides a physical presence and has underrated speed and foot skills, but must work on providing a consistent effort. Emery is usually one of the better players on the entire pitch or getting lost in the run of play; the only thing stopping her from being All-Conference is some swagger and consistency.

The same can also be said for junior Kelsey Smigel. After putting on an offensive clinic in 2011 by scoring 13 goals and adding five assists, the former A10 All Rookie (and contender for A10 Rookie of the Year) notched four goals and four assists a year ago. While her numbers were down, so was the playing time. Smigel possesses all the tools to be a consistent 10-goal scorer – her finishing ability is undeniable. The taps run hot and cold however and the coaching staff would like to see fewer peaks and valleys.

Junior Haley Keller is UD’s utility infielder, with a broad skill set comfortable in both the offensive and defensive half of the field. Starting 13 of 20 matches a year ago, her job this season is to distinguish her play by developing into a ball-winner.

Sophomore Leslie Chilton returns as a central midfielder carved from the same granite as Alexis Garcia – undersized but quick. Her skill set is promising and she got off to a great start as true freshman, but the emergence of fellow frosh Nicole Waters consumed her minutes. Still, she had four starts and 16 overall appearances. Fellow classmate Alyson Smigel – sister of Kelsey – saw the field less than 30 minutes in 2012 but should see her role expand this year, even if it means coming off the bench.

Waters, the other Canadian National Team member alongside Campbell, earned A10 All-Rookie honors last year (5 goals, 2 assists) and over the course of the season made bigger strides than perhaps any other player. By year end, she was playing as well as the veterans and showcasing supreme confidence as a ball-winner and distributor against physical opponents. Waters must continue to excel between the 18s.

What’s to make of the inconsistent Flyer defense? The challenge is correcting the sloppy mistakes of 2012 by sprouting stronger trees from last year’s seeds. For that to happen, senior Sarah Senoyuit is the key to everything.

UD’s lone defensive player selected to the preseason All-A10 team, Senoyuit’s size and position as a central defender gives her the tools to be more than just a stubborn resistance in the back line. Starting all 20 matches a year ago, the PA-native needs to dominate like Flyer central defenders before her – players such as Erin Showalter, Courtney Sirmans, and Kelsey Miller. No great Flyer defense has stood up to the ‘smell test’ without one of the league’s best central defenders commanding the middle. If Senoyuit has a great season and plays to her 5’10” frame, no other player on the roster can do more to help this year’s squad reach the postseason.

Flanking Senoyuit on the defensive edges are players in a similar situation: looking to step up their game and be known as lock-down defenders. Junior Allison Klinefelter and senior Meghan Scharer shared 38 combined starts a season ago and, if anything, are familiar with both the responsibility of the position and the need to tighten things up. Klinefelter possesses sneaky foot skills and does a nice job of stepping up to pick off passes, while Scharer has solid wheels and does well to make the best of a busted play. Also contending for playing time is sophomore Meghan Herr. She saw just 12 minutes of action a year ago but has reportedly made considerable strides – she played quality minutes in both preseason exhibitions. Still, we expect Klinefelter and Scharer to do the heavy lifting.

The wildcard is pint-sized spark plug Chelsea Rose. She’s a favorite among the coaches when they’re unhappy with the starters and want to insert a player to show some Flyer pride. Every time it seems, Rose does just that with her quick motor and happy feet. Her size and absence of a heavy boot limits her ability to be a starter, but there’s a place for her somewhere -- on defense or in the midfield – when the team needs some inspirational CPR.

Between the pipes, senior Jordin Melchert will duke it out with at least two others. Melchert has been inconsistent and part of the revolving door of Flyer goalkeepers trying to earn the permanent spot. One problem: no one separated themselves. Freshman Elizabeth James is the most likely challenger, along with Heather Betancourt and Bridget Bielski. Regardless of who wins the job, the level of play must take a pronounced step forward.

THE NEWCOMERS


UD welcomes perhaps their deepest recruiting class in five or six seasons. The Flyers placed four frosh on the A10 Preseason All-Rookie team – a record to our memory. Like most classes, there’s a spackling of in-state players along with a prejudice to the Midwest and east coast.

Based on early election returns, Libby Leedom, a two-time Gatorade Player of the Year from Kentucky, is most ready to assert herself and make an immediate impact. In fact, she might find herself in the starting 11 for the season opener at Boston University. Possessing good size (5’8”), foot skills, and a great feel for the game, Leedom should find all the minutes she can handle as either a midfielder or target forward. In the lone home exhibition against the Miami Hurricanes, Leedom appeared confident with the ball and routinely found herself in the right place at the right time to make something happen – including tallying the lone Flyer goal of the match.

Equally credentialed is Bishop Fenwick HS start Meghan Blank, yet another NSCAA HS All-American that Mike Tucker has landed over the last 18 seasons. Blank led her squad to the Ohio D-III State Title as a senior and does what great goal scorers do – find the back of the net. She’ll fit in somewhere in the midfield or up top.

Erin O’Malley is a 5’8” MF/D from West Chester, PA, and UD’s highest-rated recruit -- #88 nationally by Top Drawer Soccer. She also spent time at the 2012 ODP National Camp. The transition to college ball is the only thing standing in her way.

Diarra Simmons is the fourth preseason A10 All-Rookie and brings an international background, spending her prep time in Canada while also playing for Trinidad and Tobago at the FIFA U17 World Cup. The 5’8” forward brings many of the same physical attributes as Ashley Campbell.

Two-time All-State product Courtney Klosterman competed at perennial Ohio girls soccer power St. Francis DeSales HS and won a state title as a junior. A 5’9” defender, Klosterman is in the same boat as O’Malley and could see action in the back or as a holding mid.

Elizabeth James is a two-time All-State GK from Indiana and perhaps UD’s tallest ever (6’0”). James played half the minutes in the two exhibition games and has a chance to earn the starting position – a job that’s still up for grabs.

Sarah Byrne (Cincinnati Ursuline) and Catherine Devitt (Carroll HS) round out the major cogs in the 2013 recruiting class.

THE SCHEDULE

Dayton breaks a bit of seasonal protocol with two road matches to open the season, first against Boston University on Aug. 23, followed by Providence the following Sunday. The Flyers topped #25 Boston U. in the 2012 season opener at Baujan Field in front of a Fox Soccer Channel audience.

UD returns to campus for the home opener on Aug. 30, vs. Cincinnati, followed by Michigan State – an opponent that appeared on the schedule about 10 years ago when UD topped the #25 Spartans 1-0 at Baujan Field.

A two-game road trip vs. SEC opponents Tennessee and Kentucky follow, the latter being the return game of a two-game series. UD beat Kentucky 2-1 in 2011. A home date with Florida International is on Sep. 13, along with a cross-town trip to Wright State two days later.

The last two-game road trip of the non-conference schedule sends Dayton to Central Michigan and Toledo. The Chippewas knocked off the Flyers 4-2 last year, while the Rockets are a schedule mainstay.

The A10 portion of the schedule begins at home the following week with matches against A10 contender Richmond along with league newcomer George Mason. Dayton flies to the east coast for games against UMass and URI, before returning home to face St. Louis and Fordham – each as lone games on their respective weekend. UD travels to A10 co-favorite LaSalle, followed by St. Joseph’s in the first week of November to finish the season. VCU hosts the A10 Tournament the following weekend.

Overall, the schedule is challenging. Seven non-conference road matches -- highlighted by BCS opponents Michigan State, Tennessee, and Kentucky – put the Flyers in planes, trains, and automobiles for much of September. Boston University and Central Michigan are no pushovers either. The A10 schedule doesn’t pit the Flyers against VCU – a team UD tied twice in 2012. Richmond must come to Baujan Field, but a critical match at LaSalle could decide the A10 regular season crown. Two seasons ago, LaSalle upset the nationally-ranked Flyers in Philadelphia in front of a program-record crowd.

DAYTON WILL BE SUCCESSUL IF…

The Flyers will win matches if they defend the goal mouth. There’s no getting around UD’s offensive firepower, but 2012 was a tough lesson learned in the defensive third. Losing focus over a two-day stretch cost the Flyers dearly when the NCAA brackets were announced. Fixing that largely fixes everything.

Central defender Sarah Senoyuit is UD’s meal ticket to the Big Dance. Forget about the goal scorers and dime droppers – paydirt falls on Senoyuit’s shoulders to shore up a defensive unit and turn it into a strength instead of a liability. She cannot afford to be passive-aggressive or play smaller than her 5’10” frame. Likewise, the defenders flanking the touch lines must tighten up their marks and do a better job of closing out on through-balls to opposing strikers running forward into space. And when it’s time for a clear out of the box, it must be a good one. The Flyer D must be on the same page and work together as a unit. If UD can keep their GAA well under 1.00, the NCAAs are within reach.

If Dayton finds an answer between the pipes, their chances improve exponentially. The last two seasons have been inept at best for Flyer goalkeepers, with inexplicable decision-making or poor hands coughing up soft goals. Jordin Melchert is nursing an injury, leaving Elizabeth James as the possible front-runner to start the year. She’s just a frosh however. Even if the position is tag-teamed over the course of the season, limiting the goofs and gaffs will flip-flop a 2012 loss into a 2013 victory.

Juliana Libertin must stay healthy. She’s always been healthy – and fit and tireless. She has to stay that way however because her work rate and ability to stretch the field is something no one else in the A10 does better. As long as she’s on the field and feeling good, her production is a formality.

If Nicole Waters develops into a dominating ball-winner around the center circle, it will relieve pressure on the defense and make UD’s job of defending the box that much easier. Likewise, senior Stephanie Emery must knock bodies around in the midfield. If both excel, UD is a tough out.

Getting a couple early wins is what this team needs, especially on the road where the elements are against them. Confidence is invaluable.

DAYTON WILL STRUGGLE IF…

The Flyers gave up six goals in two preseason exhibitions and both goals surrendered against Miami were largely a result of defensive miscues or bad judgment. If the mental bugaboos pick up where they left off in 2012, the Flyers will outscore a lot of opponents – but not everyone. Against the top teams on the schedule, there is simply no margin for error when gift-wrapping goals to the opposition. Fans are counting on the steady improvement of the back line in 2012 to carry over this year.

If goalkeeping remains a weak link, it will continue to put unnecessary pressure on the back line to turn away dangerous balls without help. Goalkeeping is typically worth two games a year -- that can be the difference in making the NCAAs or getting left at home.

Every match is important – even those UD is heavily-favored. The Flyers must prevail in all of the matches they are expected to win, and two or three matches they aren’t. Avoiding bad losses is as important as securing signature victories.

OUR PREDICTIONS

There’s a lot to like about this year’s team – just like 2012. Gone is the superhuman presence of Colleen Williams, but a lot of veterans return with considerable reputation and experience. UD should have no trouble finding the net even if they don’t lead the nation in scoring again. The Flyers have the firepower to create a lot of scoring chances and that’s what matters.

There’s no better player in the A10 than Juliana Libertin – which is saying something because were it not for Williams a year ago, we could have said the same thing in 2012. It’s not about what “Jules” does on the field as much as what she doesn’t do – make mistakes or miss the obvious. She’s dialed in every night and puts more miles on the odometer than anyone in college soccer.

Ashley Campbell will lead the team in scoring. She’s too good to miss as many great scoring chances as she did in the exhibition against Miami. Over the long haul of 2013, she’ll get her goals.

Midfield is deep, though Alexis Garcia’s departure is probably more pronounced than some think. Nobody tackled like her and someone must fill the gaps to win loose balls from opposing defenders. Waters and Emery can do it. Will they? Forgetting Alysha Mallon’s contributions is also a mistake. UD must find a new glue player.

We like the recruiting class – a lot. Not just for what they bring to the table but for the depth and diversity they offer as a collective unit. Expect two newcomers to make A10 All Rookie by season’s end. Like most frosh, their learning curve will be on-the-job training, but we think they are up to the task. Some will adjust to the college game faster than others.

There’s enough meat on the bone in terms of scheduling to punch UD’s ticket to the NCAAs before they get to the post-season A10 tournament – a tourney we obviously think UD will qualify for. To make that happen however, the Flyer defense must improve substantially compared to last season. Earlier we said defense wins championships and we’re sticking to that. The question is: does UD have a championship-caliber defense?
There’s a concern no doubt. The preseason results didn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence – though in fairness the competition was excellent. Still, programs like Michigan and Miami are what Dayton measures themselves against. If there’s a snowball’s chance of making the NCAAs, UD must do better and can do better.

It speaks to the respect and reputation of Head Coach Mike Tucker’s program that UD was picked as co-favorites to win the 2013 regular season title alongside LaSalle (UD had more first place votes). For most programs, losing a player like Colleen Williams requires a couple years to recover. That’s not the case here. The Flyers once again have one of the best offenses in college soccer and are probably favorites in every league match with the exception of the road game at LaSalle. Tucker enjoys having a target on the program -- it means the road to the title must always go through Dayton. But it also means UD gets the best shot of every opponent. It’s one of the few things Flyer fans can always count on.

Question marks remain however in the defensive half of the field and we think somewhere along the way, it’s going to cost the Flyers a game or two. Whether that occurs in the non-conference or A10 schedule we’re not sure. We think one of the two rugs – NCAA at-large chances or an A10 regular season title – gets pulled out from under Dayton’s collective feet.

Dayton can reach the NCAAs without either one, but not both. If there’s no A10 season title, UD must do enough on the pre-conference to punch their ticket. If they don’t punch their pre-conference NCAA ticket, Dayton must win the league – and most likely – the postseason A10 tournament.
With only eight league matches, one loss could be the difference because of an unbalanced league schedule and proprietary pods. The Flyers don’t play the bottom three teams in the preseason poll (GW, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure). That alone makes predictions complicated. Expect the league champ to run the table.

What’s our gut say? It’s telling us the Flyers finish in second place in the A10 and earn either the #2/#3 seed in the A10 tourney, which may not be an accurate indication of league hierarchy. Does that mean we’re writing off UD’s NCAA chances?

Not so fast.

Beating Kentucky, Boston U, and Michigan State – teams UD knows how to beat – could pay off and send them dancing. Tennessee is a fourth golden opportunity. And there’s always the A10 tournament automatic bid. When it’s all said and done we think the 2013 Flyers are NCAA-caliber. If and how they get there is yet to be determined, but there’s no such thing as a ‘gimme’ on the schedule anymore. If UD doesn’t overlook anyone, the NCAA selection committee won’t overlook the Flyers.

And defense still wins championships. Head Coach Mike Tucker has a closet full of hardware proving that very point. If he gets the defense he wants, the Flyers will be comfortably in the bracket, rather than on the bubble.
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